More stories

  • in

    Where key issues stand as UAW closes in on extended strikes against GM, Ford and Stellantis

    A noon Friday deadline for expanded strikes by the United Auto Workers union against the Detroit automakers is closing in.
    The union and General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis are all holding their ground on demands, and it appears likely the union will strike additional plants.
    Major issues such as hourly pay, retirement benefits, cost-of-living adjustments, wage progression and work-life balance remain central to the discussions.

    (L-R) Supporter Ryan Sullivan, and United Auto Workers members Chris Sanders-Stone, Casey Miner, Kennedy R. Barbee Sr. and Stephen Brown picket outside the Jeep Plant on September 18, 2023 in Toledo, Ohio.
    Sarah Rice | Getty Images

    DETROIT — With a deadline for expanded strikes by the United Auto Workers against the Detroit automakers closing in, the “serious progress” called for by the union seems all too elusive.
    The UAW and General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis are all holding their ground on demands, and it appears likely the union will strike additional plants at some, if not all, of the automakers at noon Friday — as it’s warned.

    While talks are ongoing, there has been little reported movement in proposals since the strikes were initiated on Sept. 15 at assembly plants in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri. Sources familiar with the talks describe a “big” gap in demands and the parties being “far apart.”
    Headline economic issues and benefits such as hourly pay, retirement benefits, cost-of-living adjustments, wage progression and work-life balance remain central to the discussions. All issues play into one another and can change based on demand priorities.
    Each automaker has its own unique issues, but overall the companies want to avoid fixed costs and what they’ve called “uncompetitive practices” such as traditional pensions. The union, in contrast, is attempting to regain benefits lost during past talks and secure significant increases to pay and other benefits, while retaining platinum health care for members.
    In the end, it comes down to money, and how much a deal will cost the companies. Wall Street is currently expecting record costs to come from a settlement, though still below the $6 billion to $8 billion in demands the union would like, according to Wells Fargo.
    Here’s a general overview of where the union and companies stand on key issues.

    Wages

    Union leaders have been highly transparent during collective bargaining this year with the automakers. However, they’ve largely been quiet on any potential for compromise around a demand of 40% wage increases over four and a half years.
    Media reports indicate the union has adjusted that demand to the mid-30% range. UAW President Shawn Fain last week said the union has not made an offer below 30%.
    The automakers have countered with wage increases of around 20% over the length of the contract — what would still be a record — to a top wage of more than $39 per hour for a majority of workers.
    Sources familiar with the talks say if the companies do increase hourly wages beyond that 20% level, they’re likely to lower other benefits or reduce jobs in the future to try to make up the difference.

    A Ford source said the company’s current proposals would offer entry-level employees starting salaries of about $60,000, potentially increasing to $100,000 or more during the life of the deal. That includes base pay, expected overtime, profit-sharing and other cash bonuses.
    Under GM’s latest proposal, President Mark Reuss said about 85% of current represented employees would earn a base wage of about $82,000 a year. That’s compared with the average median household income of $51,821 in nine areas where GM has major assembly plants, he said.

    Tiers/’In-progression’/Temps

    Wage tiers — putting autoworkers into distinct pay ranges or classifications — is a tricky, moving target.
    The companies and union have defined tiers differently during past negotiations as well as during the talks this year. Tiers can signify the following scenarios: workers doing the same job for different pay and benefits; similar but different job responsibilities; or differences between workers at assembly and components plants, depending on the talks.
    The UAW has called broadly for “equal pay for equal work.” It’s a cornerstone of the group’s platform, while automakers have historically argued for pay to be based on seniority, job classification and responsibilities.
    So-called tiers were established in 2007 as a concession by the union to allow lower wages and benefits for workers hired after the contracts were ratified that year — what became known as a second tier. The starting pay of these workers was roughly half that of the incumbent workers, and they would not be eligible for the same active health-care benefits, pensions or retiree health-care coverage.
    The union has won some similar benefits back for newer workers compared to veteran, or “legacy” ones, but there remains different classifications of workers and pay tiers that amount to “in-progression” wages, in which a worker earns more the longer they’re employed.

    For this year, the automakers have largely proposed cutting an existing eight-year pay progression in half and eliminating some pay discrepancies between workers who do similar jobs such as parts and components.
    The union would like to eliminate the in-progression pay structure entirely and have workers across the contract earning the same wage (after a 90-day adjustment period) including temporary, or supplemental, workers.
    One source familiar with the talks said there’s a “philosophical difference” between the sides. Ford, which utilizes the fewest temporary workers, has agreed to move all current temps with 90 days of work to full-time employees.

    COLA/Profit-sharing

    The UAW suspended cost-of-living adjustments in 2009, as the companies attempted to cut costs. COLA helps employees maintain the value of their compensation against inflation.
    The union now wants to reinstate COLA, especially following a period of decades-high inflation. But the automakers, in general, have proposed either lump-sum payments or suggested utilizing calculations based on inflation levels that the union argues wouldn’t be sufficient to offset increased costs.
    Automakers have further argued that profit-sharing payments that have traditionally been based on North American profits of the companies have assisted in offsetting inflation.

    The companies are attempting to change or lower profit-sharing payments to offset other increased costs, while the union would like an enhanced formula.
    The UAW previously outlined a calculation of providing $2 for every $1 million spent on share buybacks and increases to normal dividends.

    32-hour workweek

    The union has proposed better work-life balance, including a potential 32-hour workweek for the pay of 40 hours. It has argued that salaried workers are allowed remote or hybrid work, giving them more time at home with their families.
    A shorter workweek has been a non-starter for the automakers, which have countered with additional vacation time, added holiday pay such as for Juneteenth and two-week paternal leave, in some cases.

    Product

    For the UAW, product commitments equal jobs, meaning more members for the union.
    UAW leaders are specifically concerned with vehicle production commitments at Stellantis, which has proposed closing, selling or consolidating 18 facilities. The locations included its North American headquarters, 10 parts and distribution centers and three manufacturing components facilities (two of which have already been fully or partially decommissioned).
    A source familiar with the talks said GM has committed product to all of its facilities, following three closures four years ago.

    Retirement benefits and savings

    The UAW has demanded a “significant” increase in pay for retired workers. The union last week said the companies had rejected all such increases. However, GM CEO Mary Barra said the automaker included in its offer a lump-sum cash payment of $500 for retirees.
    A Ford source said the company’s current offer includes a health-care retirement bonus program with lump sums of either $50,000 or $35,000, upon retirement, based on seniority, for newer workers.
    Automakers also have pushed back on returning to traditional pensions in lieu of 401(k) plans.
    A proposal last week by Ford included a 6.4% contribution from the company and $1 per hour for every hour worked, with a previous cap removed, according to a company source.
    GM also offered an unconditional 6.4% company 401(k) contribution for employees who are not eligible for pensions. More

  • in

    WWE’s ‘SmackDown’ to return to NBCUniversal’s USA Network in more than $1.4 billion deal

    WWE’s “Friday Night SmackDown” will return to NBCUniversal’s USA Network in October 2024.
    The deal comes out to an average of $287 million per year, a total value of over $1.4 billion, people familiar with the matter told CNBC.
    Share of TKO Group Holdings dropped following the announcement.

    Shinsuke Nakamura and Karrion Kross wrestle during the WWE SmackDown at Coliseo de Puerto Rico José Miguel Agrelot on May 5, 2023, in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
    Gladys Vega | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images

    WWE’s “Friday Night SmackDown” will return to USA Network in October 2024 as part of a five-year domestic media rights partnership between TKO Group Holdings and NBCUniversal, WWE said Thursday.
    Shares of TKO dropped more than 14% following the announcement.

    The deal comes out to an average of $287 million per year, a total value of over $1.4 billion, people familiar with the matter told CNBC. WWE does not expect to reach a rights agreement for its flagship show “Raw” until next year.
    “SmackDown” has been on Fox since October 2019, with a rights agreement for $205 million per year in a five-year deal. The new agreement is roughly a 40% increase. “SmackDown” last appeared on USA Network from 2016 to 2019.
    WWE is a component of TKO Group Holdings, which was created after a merger between WWE and Endeavor’s UFC. TKO began trading on the NYSE last week.
    WWE will also produce four prime-time specials per year to air on NBC beginning in the 2024-2025 season.
    “It’s a privilege and thrill to continue NBCU’s decades-long partnership with WWE which has helped cement USA Network’s consistent position as the top-rated cable entertainment network in live viewership,” said Frances Berwick, chairman of NBCUniversal Entertainment. “With Friday nights on USA, primetime specials on NBC, and the WWE hub on Peacock, we’ll continue to use the power of our portfolio to super-serve this passionate fanbase.”
    Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC. More

  • in

    Rupert Murdoch steps down as chairman of Fox and News Corp.

    Rupert Murdoch is stepping down as chairman of News Corp. and Fox Corp.
    The news comes as the 92-year-old’s empire, which includes Fox News, gears up for the 2024 election.
    Earlier this year, Fox paid $787.5 million to settle defamation claims by voting tech company Dominion.

    Rupert Murdoch is stepping down as chairman of the board of both Fox Corp. and News Corp., the companies said Thursday. The move will be official in November.
    Murdoch, 92, will be appointed chairman emeritus of each company. Lachlan Murdoch, one of his sons, will become sole chairman of News Corp. and will continue as Fox Corp.’s executive chair and CEO.

    “Our companies are in robust health, as am I,” the elder Murdoch said in a note to employees. “We have every reason to be optimistic about the coming years – I certainly am, and plan to be here to participate in them. But the battle for the freedom of speech and, ultimately, the freedom of thought, has never been more intense.”
    Murdoch is stepping away from the boards after a tumultuous year at Fox’s TV network, soon after the company agreed to pay a $787.5 million settlement in the Dominion Voting Systems’ defamation lawsuit over false claims that the company’s machines swayed the 2020 election between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
    Murdoch’s continued role behind the scenes at Fox News was highlighted in the months leading up the Dominion settlement. In his deposition for the lawsuit, Murdoch said some of the network’s anchors parroted false claims in the months following the election.
    Until the settlement, Dominion was calling for Murdoch, his son, and other top Fox talent and executives to take the stand if a trial occurred. At the time, Fox had opposed having the elder Murdoch — as well as other top Fox executives — appearing in person, citing his age. A Delaware judge rejected the argument, and had said Fox wouldn’t have been able to argue hardship given Murdoch’s engagement that was later called off and his publicly discussed travel plans.
    Since July 2022, Murdoch had worked from his home in Montana rather than going into Fox or News Corp. offices, according to a securities filing.

    Fox News also saw top talent Tucker Carlson exit earlier this year, followed by a dip in ratings for a period before he was replaced.
    Murdoch’s departure also comes a year ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. News Corp. owns newspapers The Wall Street Journal and New York Post, among other publications, while Fox is the parent company of right-leaning TV networks Fox News and Fox Business.
    The Australian media mogul got his start in the industry nearly 70 years ago in 1954, after taking control of what was called News Ltd., which owned the No. 2 newspaper in Adelaide, Australia. His father was a war correspondent and regional newspaper owner.
    From there he built his newspaper empire, stretching to racy tabloids in Britain and later the U.S.
    In the 1980s, he entered the television business, and bought oil tycoon Marvin Davis’ 50% stake in Twentieth Century Fox in 1985. He became a U.S. citizen that year in order to meet the requirement for owning TV stations in the country.
    In 1996 the Fox News Channel was launched, and has since become a top-rated cable network.
    “For my entire professional life, I have been engaged daily with news and ideas, and that will not change,” Murdoch said in his note to employees, adding it was time for him to take on different roles.
    Nearly a year ago, Murdoch explored reuniting Fox and News Corp., a move that would have allowed leadership to be consolidated in his media empire, as well as cutting costs. Murdoch had split up News Corp. and Fox in 2013.
    The proposal had come as audiences shrink for both print media and cable TV, while readers and viewers increasingly get their news and entertainment from online news, social media and streaming.
    However, Murdoch called off the proposed merger in January. Murdoch had withdrawn the proposal for the reunion, saying in a letter to the board that he and his son “determined that a combination is not optimal for the shareholders” of either of the companies at the time.
    The Murdoch family trust controls roughly 40% of the voting rights of both companies. The family is said to have amassed a fortune of more than $17 billion as of 2023.
    Fox and its broadcast and pay TV networks are left over from the $71.3 billion Twenty-First Century Fox sale to Disney in 2019. The media company has focused on news and sports — primarily for its traditional TV networks — as well as the free, ad-supported streamer Tubi, rather than jumping into the direct-to-consumer subscription streaming business like its peers.
    Fox, which saw its stock move up slightly on Thursday, has a market cap of more than $15.5 billion. News Corp. has a market cap of more than $11 billion.
    The Murdochs’ time and power in media has been chronicled over the years in books, as well as considered to be loosely portrayed in the HBO series “Succession.” In coming days, Michael Wolff’s “The Fall: The End of Fox News and the Murdoch Dynasty,” will be released and is said to include more revelations about the Murdoch family, U.S. politics and Fox News.
    Read Murdoch’s full note to employees:
    Dear Colleagues,
    I am writing to let you all know that I have decided to transition to the role of Chairman Emeritus at Fox and News. For my entire professional life, I have been engaged daily with news and ideas, and that will not change. But the time is right for me to take on different roles, knowing that we have truly talented teams and a passionate, principled leader in Lachlan who will become sole Chairman of both companies.
    Neither excessive pride nor false humility are admirable qualities. But I am truly proud of what we have achieved collectively through the decades, and I owe much to my colleagues, whose contributions to our success have sometimes been unseen outside the company but are deeply appreciated by me. Whether the truck drivers distributing our papers, the cleaners who toil when we have left the office, the assistants who support us or the skilled operators behind the cameras or the computer code, we would be less successful and have less positive impact on society without your day-after-day dedication.
    Our companies are in robust health, as am I. Our opportunities far exceed our commercial challenges. We have every reason to be optimistic about the coming years – I certainly am, and plan to be here to participate in them. But the battle for the freedom of speech and, ultimately, the freedom of thought, has never been more intense.
    My father firmly believed in freedom, and Lachlan is absolutely committed to the cause. Self-serving bureaucracies are seeking to silence those who would question their provenance and purpose. Elites have open contempt for those who are not members of their rarefied class. Most of the media is in cahoots with those elites, peddling political narratives rather than pursuing the truth.
    In my new role, I can guarantee you that I will be involved every day in the contest of ideas. Our companies are communities, and I will be an active member of our community. I will be watching our broadcasts with a critical eye, reading our newspapers and websites and books with much interest, and reaching out to you with thoughts, ideas, and advice. When I visit your countries and companies, you can expect to see me in the office late on a Friday afternoon.
    I look forward to seeing you wherever you work and whatever your responsibility. And I urge you to make the most of this great opportunity to improve the world we live in. More

  • in

    Home sales stick near recent lows in August, but prices continue to climb

    Sales of previously owned homes fell 0.7% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.04 million units.
    Higher mortgage rates and lower inventory levels are hitting homebuyers hard.
    Sales continue to be weakest on the lower end of the market, where there is the least supply.

    A “For Sale” sign is displayed in front of a home in Arlington, Virginia, on August 22, 2023.
    Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

    Sales of previously owned homes fell 0.7% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.04 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 15.3% from August of last year.
    This read is based on closings for contracts likely signed in June and July, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was in the high 6% range. It moved over 7% toward the end of July and stayed there, hitting affordability hard.

    “Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, in a release. “Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run.”
    It is not, however, just higher rates hitting potential buyers. They are also not finding much on the market. There were just 1.1 million units for sale at the end of August, down 0.9% for the month and down just more than 14% year over year. Inventory is now at a 3.3-month supply. A six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller.
    Tight supply has turned prices decidedly higher again. The median price of a home sold in August was $407,100, up 3.9% from a year ago and the highest reported price for the month of August.
    Yun said supply needs to double to moderate these price gains.
    “Homeowners are in fine shape. It’s Realtors and mortgage brokers that are challenged, and renters are frustrated,” said Yun.

    Sales continue to be weakest on the lower end of the market, where there is the least supply. While sales were down across all price points, they were nearly flat for homes priced above $1 million, and in that range they were actually higher in both the South and the Midwest.
    “Already, rising homebuying costs and falling rents have tipped the monthly rent vs. buy tradeoff in favor of renting in the overwhelming majority of the 50 largest metropolitan areas,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a release. “This is true not only in tech hubs like Austin and San Francisco, but also affordable markets like Columbus, Ohio.”  More

  • in

    Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants beats earnings estimates, despite weak fine dining sales

    Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants saw its net sales rise more than 11% in its fiscal first quarter.
    But same-store sales for its fine dining segment fell more than expected.
    Its quarterly same-store sales don’t yet include Ruth’s Chris Steak House, which it acquired for $715 million this summer.

    A customer carries an Olive Garden shopping bag in Pittsburg, California, US, on Friday, Dec. 9, 2022. 
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Darden Restaurants on Thursday reported earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations for its first quarter as the owner of Ruth’s Chris Steak House.
    But same-store sales for Darden’s fine dining segment fell more than expected, signaling that consumers are spending less on upscale restaurant meals.

    Shares of the company fell more than 1% in premarket trading.
    Here’s what the company reported for the quarter ended Aug. 27 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $1.78 adjusted vs. $1.74 expected
    Revenue: $2.73 billion vs. $2.71 billion expected

    Darden reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $194.5 million, or $1.59 per share, up from $193 million, or $1.56 per share, a year earlier.
    Excluding its acquisition of Ruth’s Chris, integration costs related to the deal and other items, the restaurant company earned $1.78 per share from continuing operations.
    Net sales rose 11.6% to $2.73 billion.

    Darden’s same-store sales, excluding those of Ruth’s Chris, rose 5% in the quarter.
    The company won’t include Ruth’s Chris in its same-store sales results until it has owned the steakhouse chain for 16 months. The $715 million acquisition was completed in mid-June.
    LongHorn Steakhouse was the top performer in Darden’s portfolio this quarter. The chain reported same-store sales growth of 8.1%, topping StreetAccount estimates of 6.1%.
    Olive Garden, which accounts for roughly 45% of Darden’s revenue, reported same-store sales growth of 6.1%, meeting expectations.
    Darden’s fine dining restaurants saw same-store sales shrink 2.8%, wider than expectations of a 1.8% decline. The segment includes The Capital Grille and Eddie V’s, but its same-store sales metric doesn’t yet include Ruth’s Chris.
    Darden also reiterated its outlook for fiscal 2024. The company is forecasting net sales of $11.5 billion to $11.6 billion, same-store sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%, and adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of $8.55 to $8.85. More

  • in

    Hollywood studios, writers near agreement to end strike, hope to finalize deal Thursday, sources say

    Writers and producers are near an agreement to end the Writers Guild of America strike after meeting face-to-face on Wednesday, people close to the negotiations told CNBC.
    The two sides met and hope to finalize a deal Thursday, the sources said. While optimistic, the people noted, however, that if a deal is not reached the strike could last through the end of the year.
    On Wednesday evening, the WGA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers released a joint statement that the two groups met for bargaining and would meet again Thursday.

    Writers and producers are near an agreement to end the Writers Guild of America strike after meeting face-to-face on Wednesday, people close to the negotiations told CNBC’s David Faber on Wednesday.
    The two sides met and hope to finalize a deal Thursday, the sources said. While optimistic, the people told Faber, however, that if a deal is not reached the strike could last through the end of the year.

    On Wednesday evening, the WGA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers released a joint statement that the two groups met for bargaining and would negotiate again on Thursday. Representatives didn’t respond to requests for further comment.
    WGA members have been on strike for more than 100 days — with actors joining the picket line in July — leaving Hollywood production of TV shows and movies at a standstill. Production has been halted for several high-profile shows and films, including Netflix’s “Stranger Things,” Disney and Marvel’s “Blade,” and Paramount’s “Evil.”
    Earlier in the week, the writers’ union said it would resume negotiations with the studios.
    This appears to be the closest the two sides have come to a resolution since the more than 11,000 film and TV writers went on strike beginning May 2. They have argued their compensation doesn’t match the revenue that’s been generated during the streaming era.
    Beyond higher compensation, the WGA has been pushing for new rules that would require studios to staff TV shows with a certain number of writers for a certain period. The writers are also seeking compensation throughout the process of preproduction, production and postproduction. As of now, writers are often expected to provide revisions or come up with new material without being paid.

    In late August, the AMPTP went public with its latest proposal to the WGA at the time and tensions between the two groups appeared to remain high.

    Discussions between the studios and writers have included sit-down conversations with top media brass, including Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav, Disney’s Bob Iger, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos and NBCUniversal film head Donna Langley.
    The strikes have weighed on these media companies as they grapple with making streaming profitable and getting people back in theaters.
    Warner Bros. Discovery — the owner of a TV and film studio, as well as the largest portfolio of pay TV networks — warned investors of the effects of the strikes earlier this month when it adjusted its earnings expectations. The company said it now expects that its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will take a hit of $300 million to $500 million, with a full-year range of $10.5 billion to $11 billion.
    At a conference earlier this month, Zaslav called for an end to the writers and actors strikes.
    “We need to do everything we can to get people back to work,” Zaslav said at the investors’ conference. “We really have to focus as an industry, and we are, on trying to get this resolved in a way that’s really fair.”
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is a member of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. More

  • in

    Bank of England ends run of 14 straight interest rate hikes after cooler-than-expected inflation

    The Bank had been hiking rates consistently since December 2021 in a bid to rein in inflation, taking its main policy rate from 0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% in August.
    The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favour of maintaining this rate at its September meeting, with the four members preferring another 25 basis point hike to 5.5%.

    A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021.
    Hollie Adams | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday ended a run of 14 straight interest rate hikes after new data showed inflation is now running below expectations.
    The Bank had been hiking rates consistently since December 2021 in a bid to rein in inflation, taking its main policy rate from 0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% in August.

    The British pound dropped 0.7% against the U.S. dollar shortly after the decision.
    The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favour of maintaining this rate at its September meeting, with the four members preferring another 25 basis point hike to 5.5%.
    “There are increasing signs of some impact of tighter monetary policy on the labour market and on momentum in the real economy more generally,” the Bank said in a statement.
    “The MPC will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including the tightness of labour market conditions and the behaviour of wage growth and services price inflation.”
    The MPC also unanimously votes to cut its stock of U.K. government bond purchases by £100 billion ($122.6 billion) over the next 12 months, to a total of £658 billion.

    Investors on Wednesday ramped up bets that the Bank would pause its interest rate hiking cycle after U.K. inflation came in significantly below expectations for August.
    The annual rise in the headline consumer price index dipped to 6.7% from the 6.8% of July, defying a consensus forecast that it would rise to 7%, as easing food and accommodation prices offset a hike in prices at the pump. Notably, core CPI — which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices — dropped to 6.2% from July’s 6.9%.
    Early Thursday morning, money markets were split roughly 50-50 on whether the Bank would pause or opt for another 25 basis point hike, according to LSEG data, before swinging back to 60-40 in favor of a hike in the hour before the decision.
    “Inflation is falling and we expect it to fall further this year. That is welcome news,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a video statement.
    “Our previous increases in interest rates are working, but let me be clear that inflation is still not where it needs to be, and there is absolutely no room for complacency. We’ll be watching closely to see if further increases are needed, and we will need to keep interest rates high enough for long enough to ensure that we get the job done.”
    Job ‘nearly done for now’
    The Bank of England has been treading a narrow path between bringing inflation back to Earth and tipping the so far surprisingly robust economy into recession. U.K. GDP shrank by 0.5% in July, while a number of British companies issued profit warnings on Tuesday.
    “While it may return to raising rates later in the year or into next year, the Bank of England has been bold and is signalling that its job is nearly done for now,” said Marcus Brookes, chief investment officer at Quilter Investors.
    “Inflation surprised to the downside yesterday and with economic data rolling over, the BoE clearly feels it now has enough cover to hit the pause button and assess things as we go.”
    The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday also held its interest rates steady, but indicated that it still expects one more hike before the end of the year, along with fewer cuts in 2024 than previously anticipated.
    Brookes suggested the MPC will have one eye on the U.S., where sentiment remains hawkish, but where the economy is in a stronger position to absorb a further rate rise.
    Thomas Verbraken, executive director of risk management research at MSCI, said the burning question is whether the Bank of England’s Thursday decision signals the peak of the interest rate cycle.
    “The rationale is that a steady rate can squeeze the economy more gently, averting heightened risks to financial stability and corporate defaults, while more effectively transmitting higher rates into fixed mortgage rates,” he said in an email.
    Hussain Mehdi, macro and investment strategist at HSBC Asset Management, said there is now a “good chance” that the Bank of England’s main policy rate has peaked, along with those of the Fed and the European Central Bank.
    “Although the latest U.K. pay growth numbers are a cause for concern, labour market data is lagging. Forward looking indicators suggest the U.K. economy is already flirting with recession, a backdrop consistent with cooling wage growth and a policy pivot,” Mehdi said.
    “We believe ongoing restrictive policy settings indicate there is a strong likelihood of developed markets entering recession in 2024.” More

  • in

    Does China’s fear of floating exceed its fear of deflation?

    When economists pass judgment on exchange-rate regimes, they like to invoke the monetary-policy “trilemma”. A country might want a stable currency, free capital flows and an independent monetary policy, which can respond to the needs of the domestic economy, regardless of what central banks elsewhere are doing. There are, however, intrinsic tensions between these objectives. And so, sad to say, a country can choose only two of the three.The trilemma is a canonical bit of theory. In practice, however, the choice is not so stark. No country can have all three blessings in full. But some countries, such as China, like a little of each.image: The EconomistThis year, for example, China has tried to go its own way in monetary policy. A property slump, low consumer morale and falling exports have marred the economy’s reopening from covid-19, contributing to dangerously low inflation. In response, China’s central bank has eased its monetary stance, even as interest rates have risen dramatically in America and elsewhere. It lowered reserve requirements for banks on September 15th for the second time this year. It has also twice cut interest rates.China’s slowdown and its monetary response have, predictably, weighed on the yuan. From mid-January, when euphoria about China’s reopening peaked, to September 8th, the yuan fell by 9% against the dollar. On the face of it, this is a good thing. A weaker currency should boost exports and ward off deflation. According to Goldman Sachs, a bank, a sustained 10% drop in the yuan against China’s trade partners could add 0.75 percentage points to China’s growth, which is struggling to reach 5% this year. It could also increase consumer-price inflation, which is near zero, by one percentage points in the long term.China, however, would also like a little currency stability to go with its monetary independence. It fears that sharp declines in the yuan can lead investors to expect further falls. It still bears the scars of 2015, when a devaluation triggered heavy capital outflows. The central bank thus feels inhibited in its exercise of monetary autonomy. Its rate cuts have been small—only 0.1 percentage points each time for the short-term rate. They have also been discreet. In June it cut this seven-day rate two days earlier than such moves are normally made, notes Becky Liu of Standard Chartered, another bank, perhaps to avoid too conspicuous a clash with the monetary-policy meeting of America’s Federal Reserve.China’s central bank has also tried to prop up the yuan. Officials have told speculators not to take one-sided bets. They have cut foreign-exchange reserve requirements for banks, releasing dollars into the system. The central bank has tightened yuan liquidity offshore, making it harder for speculators to borrow yuan in order to sell it. The central bank’s own foreign-exchange reserves fell by $44bn in August, not all of which can be easily accounted for by changes in the valuation of assets it holds. This raises the possibility that the bank intervened modestly itself.China’s distinctive exchange-rate system also gives the central bank a chance to intervene in another way. The yuan is not allowed to float by more than 2% above or below a “fix”, which the bank calculates each morning. The fix is supposed to reflect the previous day’s market forces. But the bank sometimes introduces what it calls a “countercyclical factor” (ie, a fudge factor) into its calculations. This has allowed it to set the fix at a rate that is stronger than the previous day’s close. Indeed, in recent days there has been more fudge in the fix than ever before.These interventions have enjoyed some success. The yuan has stopped falling against the trade-weighted basket of currencies that the authorities use as a benchmark for managing its value. The currency is also a little stronger against the dollar than it was early in the month.All this intervention comes at a cost. It tightens financial conditions, undoing some of the monetary easing the central bank is pursuing. Although a slightly more stable yuan can be engineered, it produces a somewhat less powerful monetary stimulus. China can have a little of everything. But not too much of anything. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More