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    Apartment rents are on the verge of declining due to massive new supply

    Rents in August were just 0.28% higher than August 2022, according to RealPage.
    Compare that to a year ago, when rents were posting 11% annual growth.
    The number of new units being built is at a 50-year high, with more than 460,000 being completed this year alone.

    Apartment rents have been cooling off sharply for several months, and they look like they’re about to go negative compared with a year ago.
    Rents in August were just 0.28% higher than August 2022, according to real estate tech platform RealPage. Compare that to a year ago, when rents were posting 11% annual growth. With the exception of a very brief drop during the Covid lockdowns, rents have not shown negative annual growth in well over a decade. When they did, it was due to a recession hitting demand.

    That is not the case now. Apartment occupancies nationally are at a pretty healthy 94%, which is right along historical norms. High mortgage rates combined with high home prices and tight supply have kept more would-be buyers in the rental market. The issue instead is just a massive amount of apartment supply.
    The number of new units being built is at a 50-year high, with more than 460,000 being completed this year alone. Over a million new units have been built in the past three years. That’s a record, and much of that supply is on the higher end. Renters have more options, so landlords have less pricing power as turnover increases.
    While rents nationally haven’t gone negative yet, they have in several local markets. Austin, Texas (-4.9%), Phoenix (-4.9%), Las Vegas (4.7%), Atlanta (-3.7%) and Jacksonville, Florida (-3.4%) are seeing the biggest drops.
    The Midwest and Northeast regions continue to see very strong rent increases. One exception is New York, where rents were up just 1.9% annually as significant supply comes on the market.
    Looking ahead, supply should remain high through next year, which will push rents lower potentially through 2025. New construction, however, has dropped sharply this year because of financing and other challenges, so there should be far less supply going into 2026, giving rents a chance to make up some ground. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Kroger, DocuSign, Planet Labs, First Solar and more

    Traders work as screens display the trading information for Kroger Co. and Albertsons Companies Inc. on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Oct. 14, 2022.
    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
    Hudson Pacific Properties — The California-based commercial real estate company slid 4.2% after suspending its common stock dividend. Chief Executive Officer Victor Coleman attributed the move to tougher market conditions including the Hollywood strike.

    Avid Bioservices — Shares slid 4.7% after the company reported underwhelming quarterly results. Avid reported a loss of 3 cents per share, matching a StreetAccount forecast. The company’s revenue of $37.73 million came in just above estimates.
    Planet Labs — The satellite imaging company plummeted 17% after reporting a greater-than-expected loss for the second quarter. Planet Labs lost an adjusted 14 cents per share on revenue of $53.8 million. Analysts polled by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, expected a loss of 8 cents per share on revenue of $54.1 million.
    Kroger — The supermarket conglomerate climbed 3% on the back of better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Kroger earned an adjusted 96 cents per share, beating an LSEG estimate of 91 cents per share. Second-quarter revenue of $33.85 billion did miss expectations, however.
    DocuSign — Shares slipped 2.7% despite an earnings beat a day earlier. DocuSign reported an adjusted 72 cents per share and $688 million in revenue, while analysts polled by LSEG forecast an adjusted 66 cents per share and $678 million in revenue.
    Snowflake — The cloud data stock added 3.7% following DA Davidson initiating it with a buy rating. The firm highlighted Snowflake’s potential benefit from growing artificial intelligence application demand.

    First Solar — Shares of the solar panel maker gained 1.4% after Deutsche Bank upgraded First Solar to buy from hold, citing the company’s strong ongoing demand. The firm said First Solar is at an “attractive entry point.”
    RH — The home goods store slipped more than 13% after a third-quarter earnings miss. Chief Executive Officer Gary Friedman told shareholders he expects macroeconomic headwinds to persist throughout the remainder of 2023, further pressuring the luxury housing market.
    Gilead Sciences — Gilead gained 3% Friday after Bank of America upgraded the stock to buy from neutral and raised its target price, noting potential catalysts such as stronger-than-expected sales of its HIV/AIDS treatment medication. The firm said shares look oversold in its view, as the stock has declined more than 11% so far this year.
    — CNBC’s Pia Singh contributed reporting. More

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    FAA orders Musk’s SpaceX to take 63 corrective actions on Starship, keeps rocket grounded

    The Federal Aviation Administration said Elon Musk’s SpaceX must keep its Starship Super Heavy rocket grounded.
    The federal agency had been probing the April launch, which saw SpaceX’s Starship explode in mid-flight.
    The FAA called for SpaceX to take 63 corrective actions before it launches another Starship test flight.

    The Federal Aviation Administration said Wednesday that SpaceX is not yet clear for another test flight of its Starship Super Heavy launch vehicle.
    The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images

    The Federal Aviation Administration on Friday said Elon Musk’s SpaceX must keep its Starship Super Heavy rocket grounded, saying the company needs to take 63 corrective actions before it is cleared for another test flight.
    The FAA has now wrapped its probe into the April launch, which saw the rocket explode mid-flight.

    SpaceX CEO Musk had claimed Tuesday, in a post on X (formerly Twitter) which he now owns, that “Starship is ready to launch, awaiting FAA license approval.”
    In an emailed statement, the agency said a final report “cites multiple root causes of the April 20, 2023, mishap and 63 corrective actions SpaceX must take to prevent mishap reoccurrence.”
    The corrective actions include: “redesigns of vehicle hardware to prevent leaks and fires, redesign of the launch pad to increase its robustness, incorporation of additional reviews in the design process, additional analysis and testing of safety critical systems and components including the Autonomous Flight Safety System, and the application of additional change control practices.”
    In order for SpaceX to resume Starship launches at its facility in Boca Chica, Texas, the company will need to “implement all corrective actions that impact public safety,” as determined by the FAA, and to apply for and receive a “license modification from the FAA” that addresses all of its safety, and other environmental regulatory requirements.
    SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The FAA oversaw the SpaceX mishap investigation while NASA and the National Transportation Safety Board served as official observers. A full mishap investigation report will not be made public because it contains sensitive data including U.S. export control information.
    The first Starship launch saw the nearly 400-foot-tall rocket fly for more than three minutes — but it lost multiple engines, caused severe damage to the ground infrastructure, and failed to reach space after the rocket began to tumble and was intentionally destroyed in the air.
    The test flight and explosion left a crater in the ground, flung concrete debris into nearby tanks and other equipment, and impacted sensitive habitat that is home to some endangered wildlife. It also sparked an approximately 4-acre fire on state park land.
    Environmental and cultural heritage nonprofits sued the FAA after the first Starship test flight, alleging the agency failed to conduct an appropriate environmental review before authorizing SpaceX to move ahead with its launch plans in Boca Chica. SpaceX joined the FAA as a defendant in that matter.
    The Starship program is critical to the future of the company’s Starlink satellite internet business. A global network of more than 4,000 satellites, SpaceX’s Starlink provides internet service to more than 50 countries.
    While the service has enabled battlefield communications in Ukraine, Musk has also used Starlink to influence battlefield strategy and outcomes there. He ordered engineers to withhold Starlink’s satellite network service over Crimea in order to thwart a Ukrainian attack on Russian warships, according to a new biography of the CEO. More

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    Slowing inflation is dragging on Kroger sales, even as consumers still feel a pinch

    Kroger missed fiscal second-quarter revenue expectations as inflation cools.
    For grocers like Kroger, inflation has contributed to higher overall sales as shoppers pay more for many items that they buy.
    CFO Gary Millerchip said the grocer expects inflation to “continue to decelerate” and expects a tougher backdrop for consumers in the months ahead.

    A customer shops in a Kroger grocery store on July 15, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
    Brandon Bell | Getty Images

    Good news for consumers could be bad news for Kroger.
    As prices that shoppers pay for groceries stabilize or fall, the supermarket operator’s sales are sagging.

    On Friday, the company posted fiscal second-quarter sales that missed Wall Street’s expectations. The company stuck with its full-year outlook, but said the slowing rate of inflation will mean less revenue.
    Here’s how the grocer did in the three-month period that ended Aug. 12 compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: 96 cents adjusted vs. 91 cents expected
    Revenue: $33.85 billion vs. $34.13 billion expected

    The company posted a net loss of $180 million, or 25 cents per share, compared with a gain of $731 million, or $1 per share, in the year-ago period.
    One factor was the company’s settlement of the majority of claims that it fueled the opioid crisis. The company agreed to pay $1.2 billion to U.S. states, local governments and Native American tribes to settle the majority of claims that it fueled the epidemic. Its quarter included a $1.4 billion charge, translating to a $1.54 loss per share, for that settlement.
    Net sales fell from $34.64 billion in the year-ago period.

    For retailers, inflation has been a mixed bag. On the one hand, it has contributed to higher overall sales as shoppers pay more for many items that they buy.
    Yet it has hurt the volume of merchandise sold, as customers think twice about buying — especially when it comes to adding discretionary purchases to their shopping carts. Target and Walmart, in particular, have spoken about customers buying food and essentials, but less of the other stuff, at their big-box stores.
    At Kroger locations, the slowdown in discretionary merchandise has been less of a factor since everyday items like groceries dominate the shelves. But it has created risk that customers could turn to retailers known for lower food prices, such as Walmart, Aldi or Dollar General. Kroger is made up of about two dozen grocery chains, including Fred Meyer, Ralphs and King Soopers, along with its namesake stores.
    Home Depot has also seen the strange dynamic play out as inflation cools. Lumber prices, which shot up in price about two years ago, have come down and made its overall sales look lower. Yet it has also felt the pinch from consumers buying fewer big-ticket items like appliances as they are forced to spend more for basics like food and housing.
    In the fiscal second quarter, Kroger’s identical sales without fuel grew by 1%, slightly lower than the 1.2% gain expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount. The industry metric takes out factors like store openings and closures.
    Kroger reaffirmed its full-year guidance, saying it expects identical sales excluding fuel to range between 1% and 2%. That includes the impact of ending an agreement with Express Scripts, a pharmacy benefit management company. It said adjusted net earnings are expected to range between $4.45 and $4.60 per share, including the benefit from having an extra week in the year.
    Even though Kroger did not change its outlook, Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip said the company expects identical sales will be at the low end of its annual range, and slightly negative in the back half of the year when excluding fuel.
    In an earnings release, he said the grocer expects inflation to “continue to decelerate” and expects a tougher backdrop for consumers in the months ahead.
    The prices that consumers pay for food at home aren’t rising as much as they were before, but were still up 3.6% year over year in July, according to consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    Compared to pre-pandemic, food at home prices are up significantly — a jump of 25% when comparing January 2019 to July of this year.
    Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen said on an earnings call that slowing inflation could lift sales in another way. He said as inflation slows, the grocer is “beginning to see some volume improvement.” And, he said, consumer packaged goods companies have become more willing to work with Kroger on pricing to keep their sales going.
    McMullen added that the grocer has seen shoppers who feel squeezed by high inflation, reduced government benefits and rising interest rates. He said the company has tried to cater to budget-minded customers with lower-priced items from its own brands, personalized discounts, fuel rewards and weekly specials.
    Some customers are buying smaller boxes of an item, choosing the cheapest option on the shelf or putting less in their shopping carts, he said.
    “We expect these broader economic headwinds to continue pressuring customer spending in the second half of the year,” he said. “While the environment is difficult, we are never satisfied with sales, and we are focused on driving more units in the back half of the year.”
    Kroger put up strong online gains in the quarter, with digital sales rising 12% year over year. It has expanded to new markets, including Florida, by opening giant warehouses to fulfill online orders.
    Kroger joined the list of retailers that cited organized retail crime as a factor that’s hurting their businesses.
    On the company’s earnings call, Millerchip said shrink, the industry term used for items lost because of damage, stealing or other factors, increased in the quarter because of theft. He said Kroger has stepped up security and added new tech to try to fight crime, but said Kroger expects the theft trends “will continue to be a challenge for the remainder of the year.”
    The company is in the middle of an effort to close a deal to buy grocery rival Albertsons for $24.6 billion. On Friday, Kroger announced the latest step to get the deal done. It said the combined companies have struck a deal to divest more than 400 stores and eight distribution centers to C&S Wholesale Grocers, a company that operates Grand Union and Piggly Wiggly grocery stores.
    McMullen said the approximately $1.9 billion deal will keep the company on track to complete the merger with Albertsons early next year. The grocery merger is also getting scrutiny from antitrust officials in Washington, D.C. More

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    Kroger will pay up to $1.2 billion to settle most nationwide opioid claims

    Kroger said it has agreed to pay $1.2 billion to U.S. states, local governments and Native American tribes to settle the majority claims that it fueled the opioid epidemic through lax oversight of its pill sales. 
    That settlement would allow for “full resolution” of all claims on behalf of those parties, Kroger said in a release ahead of its second-quarter earnings.
    Still, the company said the settlement is not an admission of wrongdoing or liability. 

    The Kroger supermarket chain’s headquarters is shown in Cincinnati, Ohio.
    Lisa Baertlein | Reuters

    Kroger on Friday said it has agreed to pay $1.2 billion to U.S. states, local governments and Native American tribes to settle the majority of claims that it fueled the opioid epidemic through lax oversight of its pill sales. 
    That settlement would allow for “full resolution” of all claims on behalf of those parties, Kroger said in a release ahead of its second-quarter earnings. Still, the company said the settlement is not an admission of wrongdoing or liability. 

    “Kroger will continue to vigorously defend against any other claims and lawsuits relating to opioids that the final agreement does not resolve,” the company said in the release
    Shares of Kroger fell more than 1% in premarket trading Friday.
    Kroger will pay $1.2 billion to U.S. states and subdivisions and $36 million to Native American tribes over 11 years. The company expects a $1.4 billion charge related to the settlements and associated legal fees during the second quarter.
    State and local governments have filed thousands of lawsuits against drug companies and wholesalers accused of contributing to the oversupply of prescription drugs that fueled the opioid epidemic, resulting in a plethora of settlement deals.
    Several companies announced nationwide opioid settlements within the last year.

    In November, Walgreens agreed to pay $4.95 billion to U.S. states, subdivisions and tribes to settle all opioid claims. The company also settled with West Virginia, which had the highest number of opioid-related overdose deaths nationwide, in January for $83 million
    Also in November, CVS agreed to pay $5 billion to states, local governments and tribes to settle all opioid-related lawsuits. The retail pharmacy also settled with West Virginia for $82.5 million last fall.
    Walmart in December finalized a $3.1 billion nationwide settlement agreement with all U.S. states and subdivisions to resolve all opioid-related lawsuits. Walmart settled with West Virginia for $65 million a few months earlier.
    Rite Aid has not reached any nationwide opioid settlement, but the company agreed to pay $30 million to West Virginia last fall. Rite Aid is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy within a few weeks to help restructure its debt and potentially halt ongoing opioid lawsuits.
    More than 564,000 people died from overdoses involving any opioid, including prescription and illicit opioids, from 1999 to 2020, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
    This is breaking news. Please check back for updates. More

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    Shrink and theft losses near $1 billion at Lowe’s — here’s how much they’re costing other retailers

    CNBC analyzed the balance sheets of seven retailers to determine how much money they’re actually losing from shrink and retail theft.
    Generally, the inventory losses are only a small fraction of the retailers’ net sales. They also pale in comparison to other factors squeezing margins, such as excessive discounting and promotions.
    Some retailers are pulling back on their contention that organized retail crime is a primary cause of losses.

    Anti-theft locked beauty products with customer service button at Walgreens pharmacy, Queens, New York.
    Lindsey Nicholson | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    A range of retailers are again blaming shrink as one of the reasons they saw another quarter of lackluster profits.
    But some of those companies have started to offer more detail than ever on how much shrink, or items lost to factors like external or employee theft, damage or vendor fraud, is cutting into their bottom lines.

    At the same time, certain retailers pulled back on their contention that organized theft is a primary cause of losses, as scrutiny grows over claims about how much crime contributes to their struggles.
    During second-quarter earnings reports in August and September, nearly two dozen retailers said shrink has continued to weigh on profits. But the details each company provided, and the explanations they gave for losses, varied widely.
    Many of them said that shrink is at an all-time high and said the industry is struggling to control it. Still, it’s difficult to compare the losses to past years because most of the companies have never previously disclosed how much shrink cost them.
    Generally, the inventory losses are only a small fraction of the retailers’ net sales. They also pale in comparison to other factors squeezing margins, such as excessive discounting and promotions, according to a CNBC analysis of their balance sheets. While shrink is growing for some companies, losses are generally in line with the retail industry standard of 1% to 1.5% of sales — signaling the problem may not be as dire as certain retailers and trade associations have suggested.

    When they reported second-quarter results, some companies like Target and Dick’s Sporting Goods offered clues into how much shrink is costing them and squarely blamed theft. Target lost about $219.5 million to shrink during the three months ended July 29, while Dick’s lost about $27.1 million during the same period, according to a CNBC analysis.

    Meanwhile, Ulta and Foot Locker, which both blamed “organized retail crime” for losses in May, did not mention theft during their most recent results. They only used the term “shrink” when discussing how it squeezed margins.
    Lowe’s has some of the highest shrink numbers among the companies analyzed by CNBC. It has blamed a range of factors for the losses. Sometimes it has said organized retail crime cut into profits, but in other cases, it blamed weather-related damages.
    During its second quarter earnings call with analysts, the company said shrink was in line with the year-ago period. But its annual securities filing offered more detail: the retailer revealed that its shrink in fiscal 2022 ballooned to $997 million, up from $796 million in fiscal 2021.
    Other companies, like Walmart, noted that shrink isn’t always related to retail theft when reporting second-quarter earnings. It said it remains focused on other causes of inventory losses that are “more controllable.”
    Over the last few quarters, more and more retailers have called out shrink as a drain on profits and blamed theft for those losses. But they have offered few details about how much inventory losses are actually costing them. Experts have said some companies could be using crime as an excuse to distract from other operational challenges that drive shrink, such as poor inventory management and staffing issues. 
    Companies that have disclosed shrink numbers and explained to investors how they’re working to solve it show that they have a grasp on the problem, Sonia Lapinsky, a partner and managing director with AlixPartners’ retail practice, told CNBC. Others that loosely blame shrink and theft for plummeting profits without providing much more explanation may be trying to obfuscate internal issues, said Lapinsky. 
    “Are you clearing way more inventory because you mis-planned it and you mis-bought it and that’s what’s really getting a bigger profitability hit?” said Lapinksy. “But because everybody’s saying ‘let’s just blame the theft that’s increased and that’s out of my control,’ let me tell the Street that that’s why it’s happening and not disclose what’s really going on in operation.” 
    CNBC analyzed securities filings, earnings calls, press releases and other publicly available records to try to quantify how much shrink is costing retailers and how it compares to losses from other factors, such as excessive discounts.
    No retailer explicitly disclosed their second-quarter shrink. Some revealed inventory losses as a percentage of sales, while others said how much they grew compared to the prior year. Using those clues, CNBC calculated shrink estimates for seven companies.
    Here’s how much shrink is costing those retailers, based on a CNBC analysis.

    Lowe’s 

    Fiscal 2022 annual shrink loss: $997 million

    Lowe’s has been citing shrink as a drag on earnings for years – well before other retailers started referencing it during earnings calls and press releases — and has called out theft as a driver.
    However, theft didn’t appear to fuel lower profits at Lowe’s during its most recent quarter ended Aug. 4. During an earnings call, the home improvement retailer noted that shrink was in line with the prior-year period, when it reported a 0.1 percentage point hit to its gross margin “largely due to live goods damaged by unseasonable weather.” 
    On an annual basis, Lowe’s shrink has been steadily increasing at a rate that’s disproportionate to its revenue increases. Between the fiscal years ended Feb. 1, 2013 and Feb. 3, 2017, Lowe’s annual shrink consistently represented about 0.6% of its net revenue, according to a review of the company’s annual securities filings. However, that trend began to change during fiscal 2017. By the end of fiscal 2021, the hit to profits climbed to $796 million, or 0.8% of sales. During fiscal 2022, it rose to $997 million, or 1.03% of sales.

    The inventory losses are still in line with the industry standard of about 1% to 1.5% of sales and tend to be less than profit drains from other factors.
    For example, shrink during fiscal 2022 hit Lowe’s gross margin by 0.2 percentage points and was $201 million higher than the year-ago period. But high transportation costs and expenses associated with expanding its supply chain network squeezed profits by 0.3 percentage points. When taken as a percentage of sales, those costs came in at about $291 million.

    Target

    Second quarter shrink cost: $219.5 million

    Shrink bit into Target’s gross margin by 0.9 percentage points during its fiscal second quarter ended July 29, the retailer said in a securities filing. When taken as a percentage of sales, that amounts to a hit of about $219.5 million. For the first half of the year, shrink costs have reached about $444 million.
    Target previously revealed it is on pace to lose more than $1 billion this fiscal year from shrink, up from $753 million last fiscal year. 
    Target’s shrink losses in fiscal 2022 represented about 0.7% of its total sales. They paled in comparison to how much profit the retailer lost from liquidating excess merchandise and taking other inventory actions during the year.

    The company noted in its annual securities filing that “merchandising” hit its gross margin by about 3.4 percentage points, which amounted to about $3.66 billion shaved off of profits. Those costs included all of the promotion and markdowns Target took to clear out excess discretionary merchandise, plus higher product and freight costs.
    Target’s margins have improved this year from fewer markdowns, lower freight costs and price increases.

    Macy’s 

    Second quarter shrink cost: $11.2 million

    When the department store reported quarterly results for the period ended July 29, it posted a net loss of $22 million, or 8 cents per share. During a call with analysts, Macy’s executives said shrink reduced earnings per share by 4 cents.
    That would amount to a loss of about $11.2 million during the quarter, based on the 279 million diluted shares it had at the end of the period. Those costs are after-tax.
    On the other hand, a slowdown in credit card revenue made earnings 11 cents per share less than what Macy’s had projected for the quarter, which amounts to about $30.7 million. 

    During the prior quarter, Macy’s reduced its annual outlook in part because it expects higher costs from shrink. The retailer reduced its expected earnings per share by nearly a dollar to $2.70 to $3.20, down from a prior range of $3.67 to $4.11.
    The retailer attributed the slashed outlook to “heightened macro pressures” but also an expected 12 cent impact from “increased [shrink] relative to our previous expectations.” That would amount to a projected shrink loss of about $33.5 million for the year.
    During an interview with CNBC’s Courtney Reagan last month, Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette said that shrink hit record levels in 2022 and it’s “going to be higher in 2023.” He attributed the uptick largely to “the change in organized theft.”
    During Macy’s fourth-quarter earnings call in March, Gennette blamed the shrink increase on a sales channel shift from digital back to stores, along with increased theft.

    TJX Companies 

    Fiscal 2023 shrink cost: $150 million higher than the year prior

    The off-price retailer told analysts it expects shrink to be flat during its fiscal 2024, which is expected to end in January 2024.
    While it did not outline the expected inventory losses, TJX previously disclosed that shrink lowered its fiscal 2023 gross margin by about 0.3 percentage points compared to the prior-year period. When taken as a percentage of sales, shrink was about $150 million higher during its previous fiscal year compared to the year prior. Those figures are expected to remain steady during its current fiscal year.
    Meanwhile, TJX’s 2023 full-year results took a 1.2 percentage point hit because of “incremental freight costs and higher markdowns,” Chief Financial Officer John Klinger said during a February call with analysts. Taken as a percentage of sales, that amounts to about $599 million.

    Ulta

    Fiscal 2022 shrink cost: $71.46 million higher than the year prior

    The makeup giant said shrink during fiscal 2022 was 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year. When taken as a percentage of sales, shrink was about $71.46 million higher than in 2021.
    Contrary to other retailers, shrink was the largest drag on Ulta’s earnings during fiscal 2022, according to a securities filing.
    In May, it reduced its full-year outlook for its operating margin by 0.2 percentage points “primarily” because of shrink but also because of the “increased promotional environment.” Based on projected net sales of $11 billion to $11.1 billion, Ulta is factoring in about an additional $22 million in losses from shrink and promotions for the fiscal year. The company declined to tell CNBC how much of the 0.2 percentage points was related to shrink and how much was linked to promotions.

    Dick’s Sporting Goods

    Second quarter shrink cost: $27.1 million

    For the first time in nearly 20 years, Dick’s last month mentioned shrink as a drag on profits during its earnings call and press release. During the quarter ended July 29, Dick’s said its gross margin fell by about 0.8 percentage points because of theft-driven shrink. When taken as a percentage of sales, that amounts to a hit of about $27.1 million.
    Efforts to liquidate excess inventory from the company’s outdoor category also cut into Dick’s gross margin by 1.7 percentage points, the company said. When taken as a percentage of sales, liquidation cost Dick’s about $54.8 million in the quarter – about double the effect of shrink. 

    Dick’s reduced its full-year outlook in part because of shrink. It expects sales of about $12.68 billion to $12.92 billion will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, which would result in full-year profits being about $63.4 million to $64.6 million lower for the year due to shrink.
    It’s now expecting earnings per share of $11.33 to $12.13, compared to a previous range of $12.90 to $13.80. The reduced outlook takes into account the retailer’s second-quarter results, increased shrink and higher selling, general and administrative expenses, which includes items like payroll and advertising.

    Dollar Tree

    Second-quarter shrink cost: at least $87.84 million

    In its latest quarterly securities filing, Dollar Tree noted that shrink had reduced its gross margin by 0.6 percentage points for the first half of the year. Based on sales of $14.64 billion for the first six months of fiscal 2023, shrink cost the company about $87.84 million. It’s unclear if that was the total amount of shrink Dollar Tree saw or just how much it increased compared to the prior year period.
    Meanwhile, margins for the first half of the year were reduced by 2.2 percentage points because people bought more lower-margin items and the company saw higher costs, among other factors, according to a securities filing. Taken as a percentage of sales, that cut into profits by about $314.75 million.
    Dollar Tree also factored shrink into its full year profitability outlook. It’s expecting earnings to be 55 cents per share lower than previously expected because of shrink and category mix, Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Davis said on a call with analysts on Aug. 24. More

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    Used vehicle prices may have bottomed for 2023 after August increase

    Cox Automotive reported a slight uptick from July to August in its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.
    The index, which tracks vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale dealership auctions, remains elevated from historical levels but is down 7.7% compared with August 2022.
    Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices.

    Used cars are offered for sale at a dealership on July 11, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.
    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    DETROIT – Prices of wholesale used vehicles may have bottomed for the year, as Cox Automotive said prices last month increased for the first time since March.
    Cox reported Friday its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was 212.2 in August, up 0.2% from July. It marks the lowest increase in the index this year, as prices have generally fallen from all-time highs stemming from the coronavirus pandemic and supply chain problems of recent years.

    The index, which tracks vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale dealership auctions, remains elevated from historical levels but is down 7.7% compared with August 2022. Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices.
    “August brought a stop to wholesale price declines, though it was only a small reversal of the larger magnitude declines so far this spring and early summer,” Chris Frey, Cox senior manager of economic and industry insights, said in a release.
    Frey said wholesale used vehicle prices are not expected to change much through the end of the year, with tight inventories and expected sales levels preventing any substantial pricing declines.
    Cox estimates used vehicle retail sales in August were up 5% compared with July, and year over year they were up 0.8%. The average price listed for a used vehicle In July – the most recent data – was $ 27,028, down from a month earlier but still elevated from historical levels.
    Used vehicle prices have been elevated since the early days of the Covid pandemic, as the global health crisis combined with supply chain issues caused production of new vehicles to sporadically idle. That led to a low supply of new vehicles and record-high prices amid resilient demand. The costs and scarcity of inventory led consumers to the used vehicle market, boosting those prices as well.
    Cox expects the used vehicle wholesale market to experience a “slow and gradual recovery” in prices to pre-pandemic levels by 2028. More

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    Investors should know these two risks: ‘It’s kind of like yin and yang,’ says advisor

    Risk capacity and risk tolerance are two concepts for investors to understand when building a portfolio.
    Risk capacity measures the ability to take risk with investments. Tolerance is more subjective, assessing comfort with short-term volatility.
    Failing to assess them can lead to costly mistakes.

    Getty Images

    There are two kinds of risk that investors should understand when building a portfolio: risk tolerance and risk capacity.
    They describe different aspects of a person’s risk profile — and ignoring them can put investors “in a really bad situation,” said Charlie Fitzgerald III, a certified financial planner based in Orlando, Florida.

    Asset classes sit on a risk spectrum from conservative to aggressive.
    Safer assets, like cash or money market funds, are stable but have relatively low returns that may not deliver much if any growth after inflation. Riskier ones like stock funds are more volatile — meaning they can experience frequent and violent swings up and down — but deliver higher investment growth over the long term.
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    Assessing risk capacity and risk tolerance helps individuals strike an optimal balance.
    “They go together” said Fitzgerald, principal and founding member of Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo. “It’s kind of like yin and yang.”

    Risk tolerance is essentially an investor’s comfort level with short-term market gyrations. It’s a willingness to take risk and is personal, subjective and guided by emotion, experts said.
    Someone may think they have a high tolerance for investment risk and steely resolve when faced with extreme volatility — but then freak out and dump all their stocks the second after a market selloff. Such a person would have a low risk tolerance.

    By contrast, risk capacity describes an investor’s ability to take risk. Put differently: Can they afford to gamble?
    “You may want to gamble on roulette, but your income and savings may tell you that you shouldn’t,” according to firm John Hancock. “Risk capacity ignores your wants — that’s your risk tolerance — and focuses on what level of risk is appropriate for you based on your situation and goals.”

    Misjudging your investment risk can be costly

    There are instances in which investors can misjudge their risk capacity and tolerance and make poor choices as a result.  
    Consider these examples from Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar.
    In one case, a 23-year-old starts a new job and doesn’t like the idea of her savings losing value. She invests in her company 401(k) plan but allocates all her money to a stable value fund, the “safest” available option. But this worker has a long time horizon, and therefore a high risk capacity, Benz said.
    “Her investments can go up, down and sideways in the months and years to come, but that won’t really matter until 40 years from now, when she’s ready to pull her money out,” Benz wrote. “But she’s letting her low risk tolerance … dictate her decision-making.”
    In fact, financial advisors generally recommend young investors have a portfolio geared mostly if not entirely to stocks.

    Now let’s take the opposite example. Here, a couple in their 30s are saving for a down payment on a house. They stayed invested in their company retirement plans through the 2008 financial crisis and feel comfortable about their ability to weather future downturns. They put their down-payment money in a global-stock fund.
    The couple has a high risk tolerance — but a low risk capacity, Benz said. Subjecting a down payment to stock loss is overly risky: Investment losses leading up to a near-term home purchase could derail their plans.
    Ultimately, risk tolerance, while important, is less so than assessing risk capacity and building a portfolio whose holdings “are a good fit for one’s time horizon,” she said. Of course, if an appropriately calibrated portfolio ultimately makes an investor anxious, there’s a chance the investor may be guided by their emotions to make a change at the wrong time, she added. More