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    2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ, GM’s new all-electric SUV, starts at $130,000. Here’s a first look

    The 2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ is a new all-electric SUV with more power than the current supercharged V-8 model and an estimated range of 450 miles.
    The vehicle is expected to arrive in dealer showrooms late next year, starting at around $130,000.
    The three-row electric SUV will be an important proof point for reassuring investors that GM can deliver on a promise to produce profitable EVs

    NEW YORK – Twenty-five years after the Cadillac Escalade launched General Motors into large, highly profitable luxury SUVs, the Detroit automaker is hoping a new all-electric version of the vehicle will ignite the same success for a new generation of luxury buyers.
    GM on Wednesday revealed the 2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ, an all-electric vehicle with more power than the current supercharged V-8 SUV, an estimated range of 450 miles – more than any GM EV to date – and a 55-inch LED screen across its dashboard.

    “The importance of Cadillac to our global portfolio can’t be overstated,” GM President Mark Reuss said during the vehicle’s reveal in New York City. “You are witnessing the rise of Cadillac.”
    The vehicle is expected to arrive in dealer showrooms late next summer, starting at around $130,000. That’s a premium compared with its traditional counterparts that have on average been selling for about $115,500 this year (but still lower than a limited-edition performance model of the vehicle that went on sale last year that started around $150,000).

    GM President Mark Reuss during the reveal of the all-electric 2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ on Aug. 9, 2023 in New York City.
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    The Escalade IQ is the first – and most important – traditional Cadillac model to be released as an EV. It’s set to eventually replace the current gas- and diesel-powered vehicles, unlike Cadillac’s Lyriq and Celestiq EVs that represented new entries for the brand.
    Cadillac plans to reveal two more all-electric vehicles by year’s end. Reuss declined on Wednesday to comment further on those models.
    The three-row electric SUV will be an important proof point for reassuring investors that GM can deliver on a promise to produce profitable EVs and increase annual revenue from the vehicles to $90 billion by 2030.

    Cadillac plans to exclusively sell all-electric vehicles by 2030, making it GM’s luxury EV brand. Investors will be watching for how, or whether, the automaker can also transfer the Escalade’s lofty profit margins – estimated at upward of 30% – to the EV models.

    2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ

    Reuss said the company is keeping Cadillac’s all-electric 2030 target “in mind” but ultimately demand will decide how long the company continues to produce the traditional Escalade models.
    “The customer and the market is going to tell us. We really honestly haven’t made any decisions when we stop and do EV-only on this. We’ll see,” he told reporters after the reveal. “We’re going to do what the customer wants first.”
    Escalade IQ sales are expected to begin slowly and ramp up through the end of the decade, as the company phases out the gas- and diesel-powered versions of the SUV.

    ‘It’s American luxury’

    The Escalade IQ features a much smoother, more aerodynamic exterior than the current Escalade, with overall styling more similar to Cadillac’s current EVs than its gas- and diesel-powered siblings. It features large 24-inch wheels, an illuminated grill with lightning sequences and an ultra-plush interior.
    “It’s American luxury,” GM design chief Michael Simcoe told CNBC. “So, it has to be a little bit brash, a little bit bold. It has to retain the presence that the Escalade demands. The iconography of an Escalade is pretty important.”

    2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ

    The smoother exterior design, larger wheels and longer distance between the front and rear tires makes the Escalade IQ appear smaller than the current SUVs, but the vehicle is larger and features more room than the current standard Escalade.
    “When you see it in person, it has a presence,” said Tyson Jominy, J.D. Power vice president of data and analytics. “It’s got a very unique shape. You know that it’s an Escalade, but you know that there’s something radically different about this.”
    The IQ also has a large front trunk, or frunk, that includes 12 cubic feet of cargo room – making it one of the industry’s largest, though still smaller than the frunk on the electric Ford F-150 Lightning.

    Powerful, fast charging

    The Escalade IQ will feature up to 750 horsepower and 785 pound-feet of torque with a performance “Velocity Max” mode. In normal driving, the vehicle will still deliver 680 horsepower and 615 pound-feet of torque.
    “Escalade has always been about being bold, so that’s what we set out to accomplish,” Mandi Damman, chief engineer of the Escalade IQ, said in a release.
    Powering the vehicle is a 24-module battery that includes more than 200 kilowatt-hours of available energy. GM says the battery is capable of charging up to 100 miles of range in 10 minutes when using an 800-volt DC fast charger – the quickest form of charging currently available.

    The Escalade IQ features a host of standard safety and convenience features, including GM’s Super Cruise hands-free highway driving system and an available 40-speaker KG audio system.
    The interior of the vehicle also features customizable ambient lightning with 126 color choices and an available executive seating in the second row that includes a personal “command center” with 12.6-inch-diagonal screens, dual wireless charging and other features such as a stowable tray.
    The electric Escalade will be produced at a factory in Detroit alongside EV versions of the GMC Hummer, Chevrolet Silverado and Cruise Origin shuttle. The vehicles all share GM’s new “Ultium” vehicle platform, batteries, motors and other components.
    The traditional Escalade will continue to be produced at GM’s Arlington Assembly in Texas along with full-size SUVs from Chevrolet and GMC that share a vehicle platform and other components with the Escalade.

    2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ More

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    Disney to raise price on ad-free Disney+ to $13.99 per month starting October 12

    Disney is increasing the price of Disney+ and Hulu without commercials, but is leaving the price stable for the products with ads.
    Disney’s streaming division lost $512 million in its third quarter.
    Disney is launching a new “premium duo” product of Disney+ and Hulu without commercials for $19.99 per month.

    The Disney+ logo is displayed on a TV screen in Paris, December 26, 2019.
    Chesnot | Getty Images

    Disney is raising prices on almost all of its streaming offerings as it looks to accelerate profitability for the business.
    Commercial-free Disney+ will cost $13.99 per month, a 27% increase, beginning Oct. 12. Disney+ with ads will remain $7.99 per month. Disney will also expand its ad-tier offering to select markets in Europe and in Canada beginning Nov. 1.

    Disney is increasing the price of Hulu without ads to $17.99 per month, a 20% price hike. Hulu with ads will also stay the same price, at $7.99 per month.
    For comparison, Netflix’s standard plan without commercials is $15.49 per month. Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max is $15.99 per month.
    The decision to price Disney+ nearly as high as commercial-free Netflix and Max, and charge even more for Hulu, signals Disney believes its content library can compete with both of those services. When Disney Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger launched Disney+ in 2019, he deliberately set the niche family offering at a low price of $6.99 per month — nearly half the price of Netflix.
    Last year, Disney increased the cost of Disney+ by $3 per month. Iger acknowledged he was surprised the price increase led to minimal cancelations of the service.
    “We took a pretty significant price increase at Disney+ sometime late in 2022, and we really didn’t see significant churn or loss of subs because of that, which was actually heartening,” Iger said during Disney’s earnings call on Wednesday.

    Iger noted that Disney is deliberately trying to steer users toward its ad-supported services by keeping prices for those services the same. The advertising landscape for streaming is healthier than traditional linear TV, Iger added.
    Disney has added 3.3 million subscribers for its U.S. advertising-supported service after it launched in December, Iger announced on the call. About 40% of new Disney+ subscribers have signed up for the ad tier, he said.

    Disney Executive Chairman Bob Iger.
    Charley Gallay | Getty Images

    Disney is now betting consumers will pay more for its streaming services even as the Hollywood writers and actors strikes threaten its content pipeline in the coming months.
    For consumers who want both Disney+ and Hulu without commercials, they can pay $19.99 per month in a new “premium duo” offering — a $12 per month savings. That offer will be available starting Sept. 6. The Disney+ and Hulu bundle with ads will not change from its $9.99 per month price.
    Disney also increased the price of its bundle of Disney+ (no ads), Hulu (no ads) and ESPN+ (with ads) to $24.99 per month from $19.99 per month. The bundle of all three products with commercials will be $14.99 per month, an increase of $2 per month.
    Disney said Wednesday its streaming division lost $512 million in its fiscal third quarter. Disney+ excluding India’s Hotstar added 800,000 subscribers during the period. Disney+ ended the quarter with 105.7 million Disney+ subscribers, excluding Hotstar, and about 146 million in all.
    Disney is also increasing the price of Hulu + Live TV with ads to $76.99 from $69.99 per month. The commercial-free Hulu + Live TV will jump to $89.99 per month from $82.99 per month.
    WATCH: Bob Iger will lead Disney through this difficult time, says BofA Securities’ Jessica Reif Ehrlich.

    Correction: This story was updated to reflect that the ad-free Disney+ price increase will take effect Oct. 12. A previous version misstated the date. More

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    UPS CEO says drivers will average $170,000 in pay and benefits at end of 5-year deal

    UPS and the Teamsters Union reached a tentative labor deal with pay raises and other improvements late last month.
    The agreement averted a strike that was approaching if a deal wasn’t reached.
    The roughly 340,000 workers represented are in the middle of a vote on the deal.

    A UPS driver pulls away after making a delivery in Washington, D.C.
    Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    UPS’ CEO said drivers will average $170,000 in pay and benefits such as health care and pensions at the end of a five-year contract that the delivery giant struck with the Teamsters Union last month, averting a strike.
    The tentative agreement covers some 340,000 workers at the package carrier. They are in the middle of a ratification vote that began Thursday and ends Aug. 22.

    “We expect our new labor contract to be ratified in 2 weeks,” UPS CEO Carol Tomé said on an earnings call Tuesday.
    The company cut its full-year revenue and margin forecasts “primarily to reflect the volume impact from labor negotiations and the costs associated with the tentative agreement.”
    The tentative deal would raise part-time workers’ wages to at least $21 an hour. Their pay was a sticking point during negotiations. Full-time workers will average $49 an hour, and the agreement would end mandatory overtime on drivers’ days off, according to a summary posted by the Teamsters Union.
    The deal is the latest large wage increase won in labor negotiations. Workers from pilots to aerospace manufacturing employees have recently pushed for and won higher pay. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Roblox, Penn Entertainment, Upstart and more

    Rafael Henrique | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
    Roblox — Shares tanked 22% after the online gaming platform fell short of second-quarter estimates. Roblox reported a loss of 46 cents per share, versus the 45 cent loss expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue came in at $781 million, shy of the $785 million anticipated. The revenue figure is referred to as bookings by Roblox.

    Penn Entertainment, DraftKings — Shares of sports betting company Penn Entertainment surged 9.1% a day after the firm said it is partnering with Disney-owned ESPN to rebrand and relaunch its sportsbook as ESPN Bet in a 10-year deal. It’s the first time ESPN’s brand will be on a sports betting platform. Penn rival DraftKings saw shares dropping 10.9% following the news.
    Upstart — Shares plunged more than 34% on disappointing guidance. Upstart, a consumer lending platform, said it expects third-quarter adjusted EBITDA and revenue to come in around $5 million and $140 million, respectively. Analysts estimated $155 million in revenue and $9.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, per StreetAccount. Despite the stock move, the company reported second-quarter results that topped estimates, including a surprise adjusted profit of 6 cents a share.
    Lyft — The ride-sharing company’s shares tumbled 10% following its second-quarter earnings announcement after the bell Tuesday. Lyft posted revenue of $1.02 billion, which came in line with analysts’ estimates, according to Refinitiv. The company’s adjusted earnings came in at 16 cents per share, beating estimates of a loss of 1 cent per share. However, the company’s revenue per active user declined following the company’s efforts to reduce ride fares to compete with Uber.
    Rivian — Shares of the electric vehicle maker slipped 9.9% a day after it reported a smaller-than-expected loss. Rivian posted an adjusted loss per share of $1.08 in the second quarter, while the Street anticipated a loss of $1.41 per share, per Refinitiv. Analysts, however, noted that headwinds remain for the company, which could indicate a “long path to profitability,” including steeper competition and a depletion of free cash flow.
    Carvana — The online car retailer’s stock slipped nearly 6%. Carvana shared better-than-expected guidance for the third quarter, saying it expects EBITDA above $75 million. Analysts polled by FactSet called for EBITDA to come in a little over $46 million.

    Twilio — Twilio added 2.2% a day after topping second-quarter earnings expectations. The company reported earnings, excluding items, of 54 cents a share on $1.04 billion in revenue. That came in ahead of the EPS of 30 cents and revenue of $986 million expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
    Celsius Holdings — Celsius Holdings soared 20.5% after the beverage company known for its line of energy drinks beat analysts’ expectations in its second quarter. Late Tuesday, the company posted earnings of 52 cents per share, exceeding the 28 cents per share estimate from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue came in at $326 million, far better than the anticipated $276 million.
    Toast — The restaurant management software stock gained 14.6%. On Tuesday, Toast reported $978 million in revenue for the second quarter, beating analysts’ estimates of $942 million, per Refinitiv. The company also issued rosy guidance for third quarter and full year.
    Super Micro Computer — The information technology company and beneficiary of the latest artificial intelligence craze cratered more than 23%. On Tuesday, Super Micro Computer reported adjusted earnings of $3.51 per share on revenue of $2.18 billion. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv anticipated earnings of $2.96 per share on revenue of $2.08 billion. The company also offered guidance with a midpoint slightly above expectations.
    Bumble — Dating platform Bumble slid more than 7%. On Tuesday, the company offered weak expectations for adjusted EBITDA in the current quarter when compared with a consensus estimate compiled by FactSet. The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $71 million to $73 million, compared with estimates of $74.8 million.
    Akamai Technologies — Shares of Akamai Technologies jumped 8.5%. The software provider posted stronger-than-expected quarterly results Tuesday. The company reported earnings of $1.49 per share, excluding items, on revenue of $935.7 million, ahead of the $1.41 per share and $930.4 million anticipated by analysts, per FactSet.
    Axon Enterprise — Shares of the taser maker popped 14% on strong quarterly results that topped Wall Street’s expectations. On Tuesday, Axon Enterprise posted adjusted earnings of $1.11 per share on revenue totaling $374.6 million. Analysts anticipated 62 cents in earnings per share and revenue of $350.5 million, per FactSet. The company also boosted its full-year guidance.
    IAC — Shares of the media and internet company sank more than 16% on disappointing quarterly results. On Tuesday, IAC posted a larger-than-expected loss of $1.07 per share, ahead of an 82 cent loss expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Revenue came in at $1.11 billion, slightly behind the $1.12 billion expected.
    Marqeta — Shares of the payments platform company surged about 12% a day after Marqeta announced it had struck a deal to continue servicing Block’s CashApp through June 2027. The company also reported a mixed second quarter. Marqeta lost 11 cents per share on $231 million of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting a loss of 9 cents per share on $219 million of revenue.
    — CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Pia Singh, Brian Evans, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring, Yun Li and Sarah Min contributed reporting. More

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    These charts show what has Moody’s worried about regional banks including U.S. Bank and Fifth Third

    A new issue highlighted by Moody’s may cast a pall over banks: They’ve been forced to pay customers more for deposits at a pace that outstrips growth in what they earn from loans.
    The boost from higher rates was fleeting, evaporating in the first quarter of this year, when bank failures jolted depositors out of their complacency and growth in net interest margin turned negative.
    In company-specific reports, Moody’s said it had place U.S. Bank under review for a downgrade for reasons including its “rising deposit costs and increased use of wholesale funding.”

    Bloomberg/Getty Images

    The Moody’s ratings downgrades and outlook warnings on a swath of U.S. banks this week show that the industry still faces pressure after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
    Concern over the sector had waned after second-quarter results showed most banks stabilized deposit levels following steeper losses during the March regional banking crisis. But a new issue may cast a pall over small and midsized banks: They’ve been forced to pay customers more for deposits at a pace that outstrips growth in what they earn from loans.

    “Banks kept their deposits, but they did so at a cost,” said Ana Arsov, global co-head of banking at Moody’s Investors Service and a co-author of the downgrade report. “They’ve had to replace it with funding that’s more expensive. It’s a profitability concern as deposits continue to leave the system.”
    Banks are usually expected to thrive when interest rates rise. While they immediately charge higher rates for credit card loans and other products, they typically move more slowly in increasing how much they pay depositors. That boosts their lending margins, making their core activity more profitable.

    This time around, the boost from higher rates was especially fleeting. It evaporated in the first quarter of this year, when bank failures jolted depositors out of their complacency and growth in net interest margin turned negative.
    “Bank profitability has peaked for the time being,” Arsov said. “One of the strongest factors for U.S. banks, which is above-average profitability to other systems, won’t be there because of weak loan growth and less of an ability to make the spread.”
    Shrinking profit margins, along with relatively lower capital levels compared with peers at some regional banks and concern about commercial real estate defaults, were key reasons Moody’s reassessed its ratings on banks after earlier actions.

    In March, Moody’s placed six banks, including First Republic, under review for downgrades and cut its outlook for the industry to negative from stable.

    Falling margins affected several banks’ credit considerations. In company-specific reports this week, Moody’s said it had placed U.S. Bank under review for a downgrade for reasons including its “rising deposit costs and increased use of wholesale funding.”
    It also lowered its outlook on Fifth Third to negative from stable for similar reasons, citing higher deposit costs.
    The banks didn’t immediately return requests for comment.
    The analyst stressed that the U.S. banking system was still strong overall and that even the banks it cut were rated investment grade, indicating a low risk of default.
    “We aren’t warning that the banking system is broken, we are saying that in the next 12 months to 2 years, profitability is under pressure, regulation is rising, credit costs are rising,” Arsov said. More

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    Semiconductor makers wait for checks one year after Biden signs CHIPS Act

    A year after President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law, the U.S. semiconductor industry is still waiting on the windfall.
    The goal of the $52.7 billion package was to reshore the semiconductor supply chain in America, but so far, no funding set aside by the legislation has been awarded.
    Companies like Integra, Intel and SkyWater all say the funds are critical to expanding or constructing manufacturing facilities in the U.S.

    A year after President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law, the U.S. semiconductor industry is still waiting on the windfall.
    “We will start to give out the money later this year,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “We’re pushing the team to go fast, but even more important, to get it right.”

    The goal of the $52.7 billion package was to reshore the semiconductor supply chain in America and in turn, improve national security by decreasing reliance on foreign countries. The law also prohibits funding recipients from expanding semiconductor manufacturing in China or other countries deemed a national security risk by the United States government.
    The federal subsidies are meant to help offset the higher cost of building these manufacturing hubs, but so far, no funding set aside by the legislation has been awarded.
    Raimondo said the Department of Commerce has received “over 460 statements of interest from companies around the world” hoping to be awarded federal funding for their projects. That’s an increase from the agency’s last update, which had that figure at “nearly 400.”

    US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo discusses the impact of the semiconductor chip shortage at UAW Region 1A office in Taylor, Michigan on November 29, 2021.
    Jeff Kowalsky | AFP | Getty Images

    The potential for federal funding has spurred some potential huge investments in the semiconductor sector. In total, $231 billion has been announced in private sector semiconductor investments in the United States, according to the White House. But many of those projects are contingent on receiving federal government aid.
    Integra Technologies, for example, which provides semiconductor packaging and other services, plans to build a 1 million-square-foot facility in the Wichita, Kansas, area, provided it can receive the federal funding.

    “The back-end semiconductor manufacturing sector that Integra participates in, operates on very thin margins that just don’t make it possible without the CHIPS Act support to do this,” Integra CEO Brett Robinson said.
    The project would create nearly 2,000 direct, high-paying jobs.
    “Once it’s up and running and operational, the company can sustain the business with no further government support,” Robinson said. “it’s just that extreme amount of cost and time that it takes to get the facility built,” that requires government help.
    SkyWater Technology, a pure-play technology foundry, is already working with coalitions to find construction workers before breaking ground on its planned $1.8 billion plant in West Lafayette, Indiana.
    The company expects to hire 700 new employees, but remains in the planning stage, unable to break ground until it knows if the project would receive federal funding, and how much.
    “Once funding does start flowing, we can begin to start that process as quickly as possible,” said CEO Tom Sonderman. “In terms of industry speed, maybe it’s not as fast as we’d like, but in terms of the government really stepping up and preparing for what’s coming, I’ve been impressed.”
    The Department of Commerce has hired 140 staff members tasked with evaluating CHIPS Act applications, and officials are in active talks with many of the potential recipients, according to a senior department official.
    As companies await the federal dollars, many larger semiconductor firms have opened their coffers to begin expansion. Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and silicon carbide producer Wolfspeed have all hired workers and started construction despite not receiving any federal CHIPS Act funding.
    When asked if the largest chip contractor in the world even needed government funding, TSMC Arizona President Brian Harrison said, “It’s needed, and it will be used for the construction and the facilitation and outfitting with the equipment of these two factories.”
    Despite the marketing campaigns, presidential visits and public announcements promising billions of dollars in chips investments, not all applicants should expect to receive aid.
    “We’re going to have a bunch of tough choices ahead in terms of how we allocate our capital,” said a senior Commerce Department official. “There’s definite expectations that not every applicant is going to be happy. Some will be disappointed.” More

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    Companies say organized retail crime is on the rise, but there’s no data to prove it

    The retail industry has made organized theft a top priority, as more companies from Target to Foot Locker say stealing is cutting into their profits.
    Retail theft is real and causes major issues for businesses, but companies are not required to report data on how it is affecting them and it is nearly impossible to verify their claims.
    Any number of issues, from employee theft to lost or damaged goods, could be causing retailers to lose inventory.

    This is part one of a three-part series on organized retail crime. The stories will examine the claims retailers make about how theft is affecting their business and the actions companies and policymakers are taking in response to the issue. Be sure to check out parts two and three later this week.

    Anti-theft locked merchandise on shelves with customer service button at CVS pharmacy, Queens, New York.
    Lindsey Nicholson | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    Retailers have zeroed in on organized retail theft as a top priority, as more and more companies blame crime for lower profits.

    But it is difficult for companies to tally just how much stolen goods affect their bottom lines — and even tougher to confirm their claims.
    More than a dozen retailers, including Target, Dollar General, Foot Locker and Ulta, called out shrink, or more specifically retail theft, as a reason they cut their profit outlook or reported lower margins when they released earnings in May and June. Those mentions could flare up again as a flurry of retail companies will report financial results starting next week.
    Many of them described organized theft as an industrywide problem that’s largely out of their control. Some retailers lumped it in with heavy discounting, soft sales and macroeconomic conditions as other factors that cut into their margins. 
    While organized theft is a real concern, it is nearly impossible to verify the claims retailers make about it. Companies are not required to disclose their losses from stolen goods, and it’s a difficult metric to accurately count, leaving the industry, investors and policymakers few choices but to rely on their word.
    The surge in references to organized retail crime, and the dearth of transparency surrounding the issue, come as the companies’ claims take on a new weight. Retailers and trade associations are increasingly using their positions to influence lawmakers to pass new legislation that benefits them, hurts competitors and could disproportionally affect marginalized people, according to policy experts.

    What is shrink, and how do retailers tally it?

    Shrink is a retail industry term that refers to lost inventory. It can come from a variety of factors, including shoplifting and vendor fraud, which can be difficult to control. Shrink can also be caused by employee theft, administrative error and inventory damage, which retailers have more power to curb.
    Retailers have repeatedly said organized theft drove shrink in recent quarters. But they rarely, if ever, break down how much of the inventory loss is due to crime and how much of a role other causes played.
    They also don’t disclose their total losses from shrink and how they have changed over time. That makes it impossible to verify whether the issue has gotten worse and just how much of a bite it has taken from their bottom lines.

    Multibillion-dollar companies commonly withhold information that can appear unflattering on earnings calls and press releases. That information can often be found in documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, such as quarterly 10-Q reports or annual 10-K filings. 
    However, companies are not required to disclose losses from shrink unless they’re “exceptionally large” and could be considered material to investors, according to Raphael Duguay, an assistant professor of accounting at Yale University School of Management.
    Alongside discounts, promotions and returns, losses from shrink are buried into the “cost of goods sold” and only show up in a retailer’s gross margin, said Duguay. 
    Retailers are loath to reveal their shrink numbers because they’re often based on estimates and they would have to be “presumptive in their presentation of the numbers,” said Mark Cohen, a professor and director of retail studies at Columbia Business School.
    “And they never will be [disclosed] if retailers have their way because they don’t want to have to report that,” said Cohen, who previously served as the CEO of Sears Canada, Bradlees and Lazarus Department Stores. “Retailers will never want to record it unless they were absolutely forced to because it’s a black mark … It makes them look stupid.” 

    Is retail theft really on the rise? It’s hard to say

    When industry executives say that organized theft is rising, many are relying on a study released by the National Retail Federation in September. It found losses from shrink increased to $94.5 billion in 2021 from $90.8 billion in 2020.
    In 2021, the largest chunk of losses – 37% – came from external theft, according to the survey.
    There is no conclusive data about inventory losses in recent years, including from the first half of this year when multiple companies named it as a growing problem.
    The NRF’s study is the best guess the industry can make about how shrink affects companies. But the data, which is anonymized, gathered on the honor system and largely based on estimates, isn’t as clear cut as it appears
    Survey respondents were asked to disclose their inventory shrink as a percentage of sales. On average, that number stood at 1.4% in 2021, which is lower than the five-year average of 1.5%, the study says. 

    Anti-theft locked beauty products with customer service button at Walgreens pharmacy, Queens, New York.
    Ucg | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    The NRF arrived at the $94.5 billion in losses by applying that 1.4% average shrink to the total retail sales reported to the U.S. Census Bureau in 2021, according to the study. 
    However, as retail sales jumped 17.1% from 2020 to 2021, the total hit companies took from shrink would naturally increase as well. Further, the census data used for the study were preliminary at the time it was released. The final retail sales figure was lower, making estimated shrink losses about $600 million less than what the NRF originally reported.
    The actual amount that American retailers lost to shrink in 2021 – and how that number has changed over time – isn’t known.
    National crime data from the FBI shows the rate of larceny offenses steadily declined between 1985 and 2020, and such crimes overwhelmingly occur in homes rather than stores. However, the FBI’s statistics don’t include data from all law enforcement agencies, and many theft incidents, especially those that happen at retail locations, go unreported.

    The tricky business of counting theft

    Retailers have always had to contend with shrink, but they have long relied on estimates and educated guesses to determine how an item was lost. 
    Retailers use sales patterns, inventory trends, historical data and, when available, evidence such as surveillance footage to estimate how merchandise is lost. 
    “We know what we’ve run up at the register, we know what we put on the shelf. When the anomaly occurs, we can estimate or infer that it represents theft,” Cohen, the Columbia Business School professor, told CNBC.
    Target, one of the few retailers to say how much its lost from unaccounted inventory, made headlines in May when it said it was on track to lose more than $1 billion from shrink this year, up from $763 million the previous fiscal year. Target has repeatedly said organized retail theft is fueling its inventory losses. But at the same time, the retailer acknowledged it’s difficult to calculate theft and shrink overall — which raises questions about how accurately it can estimate the effect stolen goods has on its profits.

    Locked up merchandise, to prevent theft in Target store, Queens, New York. 
    Lindsey Nicholson | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    Between 2019 and 2022, the total retail value of the merchandise Target lost to shrink increased by “nearly 100 percent,” the company told CNBC.
    “This correlates with a dramatic increase in organized retail crime in our stores and online over that same time period,” Target said.
    The trend has worsened so far this year, the company said. It declined to break down all the sources of its shrink, but acknowledged other factors, such as damage and administrative error, have contributed.
    To explain how it decided organized retail crime in its stores has worsened, Target pointed to vague trends and data points that don’t conclusively prove the acts are fueling its losses.
    The company said it determined retail theft is driving shrink through a number of “signals,” including recent criminal justice reforms, news reports about crime increasing, commentary from other retailers who said they were seeing higher rates of theft and documented upticks in violence and fraud.
    For example, acts that Target associates with organized retail crime rings — such as gift card and return fraud — increased by about 50% in its stores between 2021 and 2022, the company said.
    Target has also clocked a “marked increase” in theft involving violence or threats over the same time period and in 2023, the company said. In the first five months of 2023, stores have seen a nearly 120% increase in those incidents, the company said.
    Sonia Lapinsky, a partner and managing director with AlixPartners’ retail practice, said shrink is an “incredibly complex thing to track and measure” because it can come from many sources at all points in the supply chain, from the factory to the store.
    “Not that many retailers are sophisticated enough to track it at all the different points,” said Lapinsky. 
    Those that have the right systems and technology in place have a better grasp on where their shrink is coming from, but overall the industry is “lagging” behind in those investments, she said. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Penn Gaming, Lyft, WeWork and more

    Rick Smith, CEO of Axon Enterprises.
    Adam Jeffery | CNBC

    Check out the companies making headlines before the bell Wednesday.
    WeWork — The stock plunged 25.7% after WeWork said in an SEC filing that there’s doubt about the company’s ability to keep operating amid weaker-than-expected membership rates. WeWork warned of measures such as a potential bankruptcy or restructuring or refinancing its debt. Its share price, which was below $1 since early this year, dropped to $0.05 in premarket trading.

    Carvana — Online used-car retailer Carvana added 7.4% before the bell. Carvana expects adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter to be above $75 million, which is higher than its prior guidance and analysts’ expectations of $46.4 million, according to StreetAccount. The company, which announced a debt restructuring agreement in July, has seen its stock price soar more than 850% so far this year buoyed by short sellers rushing to cover their bets.
    Lyft — Shares lost almost 6% premarket after the ride-hailing company announced its second-quarter earnings. Lyft posted revenue of $1.02 billion, in line analyst estimates, according to Refinitiv. Meanwhile, adjusted per share earnings came in at 16 cents, beating estimates of a loss of 1 cent per share.
    Penn Entertainment — Shares of the entertainment and casino company gained more than 15% in early morning trading after Disney’s ESPN announced a 10-year deal with Penn to create ESPN Bet, a sports betting site. As part of the deal, Penn will pay ESPN $1.5 billion in cash. Disney’s stock price gained more than 1.8% on news of the deal.
    Axon Enterprise — Shares of the military technology developer advanced 13.8% in premarket trading after reporting a beat on earnings and revenue for the second quarter. Axon posted earnings per share of $1.11, flying past analysts’ expectations of 62 cents, according to StreetAccount. Revenue came out at $374.6 million, while analysts expected $350.5 million. JPMorgan upgraded the stock to outperform and assigned a $235 price target, which suggests 34% upside.
    Bumble — Dating platform Bumble slid 2.8% even after the company beat expectations for its second quarter on both lines. But Bumble offered weak expectations for adjusted EBITDA in the current quarter. 

    DraftKings — The sports betting company saw its shares fall about 4.6% after Disney-owned ESPN announced a partnership with its rival Penn Entertainment on a gambling sportsbook.
    Toast — Shares of the restaurant management software platform popped 14% after the company posted second-quarter earnings that topped expectations. Earnings per share of 19 cents surpassed a Street Account estimate of 1 cent per share. Toast reported $978 million in revenue, also exceeding expectations of $943.1 million.
    Marqeta — Shares of the payments platform company jumped nearly 19% after Marqeta announced it struck a four-year deal to continue servicing Block’s CashApp. The company also reported a mixed second quarter. Marqeta lost 11 cents per share on $231 million of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting a loss of 9 cents per share on $219 million of revenue.
    Akamai Technologies — The cybersecurity company gained 6.4% in premarket trading after it raised its full-year guidance and reported earnings for the second quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
    — CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Yun Li, Alex Harring and Jesse Pound contributed reporting. More