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    15 years of low interest rates reshaped the U.S. economy. Here’s what’s changing as rates stay higher for longer

    The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark lending rate near what economists call “the effective lower bound” for the better part of 15 years.
    Low interest rates can in some cases distort the basic assumptions of personal finance and business, shifting how investors calculate risk.
    The Federal Reserve is in the midst of its fastest interest rate hiking cycle in the modern era, setting up the U.S. economy for conditions not seen in generations

    The United States is entering a new economic era as the Federal Reserve hikes its benchmark interest rate.
    In July 2023, the federal funds effective rate stood above 5% for the first time in four decades. As interest rates climb, economists say financial conditions are headed back to being more normal.

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    “Having interest rates at zero for such a long period of time is very unusual,” said Roger Ferguson, a former vice chair at the Federal Reserve. “Frankly, no one ever thought we’d get to that place.”
    Back-to-back financial crises gave past Fed policymakers the conviction to take interest rates as low as they can go, and keep them there for extended periods of time. Along the way, they disrupted the basic math of personal finance and business in America.
    For example, the Fed’s unconventional policies helped to sink the profits investors received from safe bets. Government bonds, Treasury securities and savings accounts all return very little yield when interest rates are low. At the same time, low interest rates increase the value of stocks, homes and Wall Street firms that make money by taking on debt.
    As the Fed hikes interest rates, safer bets could end up paying off. But old bets could turn sour, particularly those financed with variable loans that increase alongside the interest rate. A wave of corporate bankruptcies is rippling through the U.S. as a result.
    “You’re, to some extent, limiting nonproductive investments that would not necessarily generate revenue in this high interest rate environment,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “It’s very different in a low interest rate environment where money is free and essentially any type of investment is really worth it because the cost of capital is close to zero.”

    In recent years, economists have debated the merits of zero lower-bound policy. As the Fed lifts that federal funds rate, policymakers warn that rates may stay high for some time. That could even be the case if inflation continues to subside.
    “Barring a catastrophe, I don’t think we’ll see lower interest rates any time soon,” said Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief at Bankrate.com.Watch the video above to learn more about the new economic era unfolding in the U.S. More

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    A CEO quits and the BBC apologizes to Trump-ally Nigel Farage. A banking scandal erupts in Britain

    NatWest Group CEO Alison Rose admitted on Tuesday to having discussed the details of Nigel Farage’s bank account with a BBC reporter.
    Farage was informed earlier this month that Coutts — a high-end private bank and wealth manager requiring clients to hold a minimum of £1 million in investments or borrowing, or £3 million in savings — planned to cut ties with him.
    He subsequently filed a subject access request (SAR) to obtain a dossier the bank held on him which he then published, claiming it showed the bank account was being terminated due to his views.

    Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

    LONDON — NatWest Group CEO Alison Rose resigned after a media storm over the termination of Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage’s bank account by sister lender Coutts.
    Rose admitted Tuesday to having discussed the details of Farage’s account with a BBC reporter and having thus been the source of a controversial story for which the national broadcaster has since issued an apology.

    Initially, the board reiterated its support for her to stay on as CEO, but at 2 a.m. Wednesday the bank announced her immediate departure by mutual consent.
    In a statement, Rose said she remained “immensely proud of the progress the bank has made in supporting people, families and business across the U.K., and building the foundations for sustainable growth.”
    The controversy
    NatWest is 39% owned by the British taxpayer following the 2008 crisis, heightening the public interest in the bizarre saga.
    “Despite a stellar performance as the first woman to take the helm of a U.K. bank, her mistake in discussing sensitive customer details with a journalist broke a sacred trust with the British public and her decision to step down was the only viable path,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.
    “She will be a loss, having worked her way up the ranks and championed diversity and inclusion in the sector with a huge focus on getting more women in financial services. But NatWest is no ordinary bank, it is still almost forty percent owned by the U.K. taxpayer, and the political and regulatory ramifications of this episode are likely to ripple out for months to come.”

    Farage was informed last month that Coutts — a high-end private bank and wealth manager requiring clients to hold a minimum of £1 million ($1.29 million) in investments or borrowing, or £3 million in savings — planned to cut ties with him.

    Alison Rose, NatWest chief executive, (right) departs 10 Downing Street in London, after meeting with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
    James Manning | PA Images | Getty Images

    He subsequently filed a subject access request (SAR) to obtain a dossier the bank held on him which he then published, claiming it showed the bank account was being terminated due to his political views.
    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and several members of his Conservative government issued statements condemning the bank and characterizing the termination of Farage’s account as an affront to free speech. Farage was offered an alternative account at regular main street bank NatWest, but declined.
    His critics maintain that although frequent references are made to Farage’s political profile and controversial views, the reasons outlined for allowing the banking relationship to lapse were primarily commercial, and he was not “de-banked” as he claims.
    The dossier
    Minutes from the Wealth Reputational Risk Committee at Coutts on November 2022 state that Farage’s mortgage was due to expire in July 2023, at which point “on a commercial basis” it would not look to renew and therefore recommended winding down the banking relationship.
    Without the mortgage, the bank indicated that Farage’s account value would fall below its commercial criteria. The committee recommended exiting the relationship in July, but was at the time seeking to retain Farage as a client barring any “flash points” that might pose further “reputational risk.”
    Coutts said that upon expiry of Farage’s mortgage repayments, it “did not have the appetite to renew his mortgage or provide banking facilities” and had therefore implemented an “exit plan” that allowed for the bank to terminate Farage’s account earlier in the event of further controversy in the meantime.
    “The Committee did not think continuing to bank NF [Nigel Farage] was compatible with Coutts given his publicly-stated views that were at odds with our position as an inclusive organisation,” the minutes added.
    “This was not a political decision but one centred around inclusivity and Purpose.”
    An update from March 10 this year noted that Farage’s account had “been below commercial criteria for some time and upon review of Nigel’s past public profile and connections, the perceived risks for the future weighed against the benefit of retention, the decision was taken to exit upon repayment of an existing mortgage.”
    Farage’s politically exposed person (PEP) status — conferred by British banks to high-ranking public figures who may be susceptible to bribery — was downgraded to “lower risk” as he is “no longer associated with any political party” since stepping down as Brexit Party leader in 2021.
    Part of the client analysis from Coutts contained within the 40 pages of personal data, highlighted an array of news articles alongside Farage’s own media appearances and tweets, determined that the “values” he promotes did not align with the bank’s.
    “Particularly given the manner in which he states (and monetises) those views – deliberately using extreme, hatful[sp?] and emotive language (often with a dose of misinformation) – at best he is seen as xenophobic and pandering to racists, and at worst, he is seen as xenophobic and racist,” it said.
    “He is considered by many to be a disingenuous grifter and is regularly (almost constantly) the subject of adverse media.”

    LONDON – June 16, 2016: Then-UK Independence Party Leader (UKIP) Nigel Farage poses during the launch of a national poster campaign urging voters to vote to leave the EU ahead of the EU referendum.
    DANIEL LEAL/AFP via Getty Images

    Farage is a long-time ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump, vocal supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and prominent figure in the British hard right, having previously led the U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) and the Brexit Party.
    The documents note long lists of controversial statements and activities, including his filming of migrants arriving in dinghies via the English channel and reference to migrant boat arrivals as an “invasion,” and his blaming of violence in the city of Leicester last year on lawmakers who “promoted multiculturalism.”
    Coutts acknowledged that Farage’s commentary “remains within the law regarding hate speech and arguably on the right side of ‘glorifying or promoting harmful behaviour’ (although we should be mindful of the role the ‘illegal immigrant / invasion’ rhetoric plays in contributing to discrimination and in some instances, violence, against migrants).”
    The fallout
    Farage told Sky News Wednesday that he was “shocked with the vitriol” contained within it, and is calling for the resignation of the entire NatWest Group executive board along with a regulatory overhaul of Britain’s banking sector.
    British economist and financial author Frances Coppola, in a blog post Tuesday, agreed that the language in the bank’s risk assessment was “mostly negative and at times possibly defamatory,” and said now-ousted CEO Rose was right to apologize directly to Farage prior to her departure.
    However, Coppola argued that the bank was “absolutely right to conduct such an assessment and fully entitled to reach the conclusions that it did,” with the Coutts risk assessment noting that there is an “extra cost attached to managing the accounts of high profile individuals such as NF.”
    “Assessing the risk and cost of a customer is a commercial judgement. And reputational risk is hugely important to a bank like Coutts. It is wholly unreasonable to argue that they should not have taken account of – or even evaluated – the risk to them of doing business with a person as controversial as Nigel Farage,” Coppola argued.
    “Why should a bank accept the extra cost that you create for them if you don’t borrow from them and don’t keep enough liquid savings with them to support their lending to other people? And why should it keep your account open when you don’t meet its published criteria, given the reputational risk and general aggravation you cause?”

    LONDON – June 26, 2020: Private bank and wealth manager Coutts and Company, founded in 1692, and the eighth oldest bank in the world, displays support for Pride month at its offices in London.
    Dave Rushen/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

    Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority said Wednesday that it had raised concerns with NatWest Group and Coutts about the “allegations relating to account closures and breach of customer confidentiality since these came to light,” and NatWest has launched an independent review of the series of events.
    “It is vital that the review is well resourced and those conducting it have access to all the necessary information and people in order to investigate what happened swiftly and fully,” the FCA said in a statement.
    “On the basis of the review and any steps taken by other authorities, such as the Financial Ombudsman Service or Information Commissioner, on relevant complaints, we will decide if any further action is necessary.”
    Following a Wednesday meeting between Britain’s Economic Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith and U.K. banking chiefs, the U.K. Treasury reiterated in a statement “the government’s clear position on the importance of legal freedom of expression,” adding it is “wholly unacceptable” to terminate the account of a person for expressing their political views.
    “Banks will also be required to spell out why they are terminating a bank account – boosting transparency for customers and aiding their efforts to overturn decisions,” the statement said. “There will be limited exceptions to these requirements, for example to ensure that bank communications aren’t interfering with investigations into criminal activity.”
    Whatever the outcome of Farage’s demands for further resignations and regulatory scrutiny, British banking has been thrust into the spotlight and could become yet another political hot potato ahead of a general election due next year. More

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    Boeing swings to a loss on defense unit trouble, but airplane deliveries pick up pace

    Boeing posted a narrower loss and bigger sales than analysts expected.
    The company generated $2.6 billion of free cash in the quarter, ahead of analyst forecasts.
    Boeing’s defense, space and security unit reported a loss of $527 million for the quarter, down from a profit a year ago.

    An employee walks past a Boeing 737 Max aircraft seen parked at the Renton Municipal Airport in Renton, Washington, January 10, 2020.
    Lindsey Wasson | Reuters

    Boeing results topped analyst expectations Wednesday thanks to a pickup in commercial aircraft deliveries as the manufacturer increases production, but losses in its defense and space businesses drove the manufacturer into the red for the quarter.
    The company generated $2.6 billion of free cash in the quarter, ahead of analyst forecasts, and reiterated its full-year guidance of between $3 billion and $5 billion of free cash flow.

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    Boeing shares were up more than 3% in premarket trading after releasing results.
    Here’s how the company performed during the period ended June 30, compared with Refinitiv consensus estimates

    Adjusted loss per share: 82 cents vs. 88 cents.
    Revenue: $19.75 billion vs. $18.45 billion

    Boeing and main rival Airbus have both struggled to increase aircraft production in the wake of the pandemic as some airlines face longer waits for new jets, just as travel demand rebounds.
    The company delivered 136 planes in the second quarter, up from 121 aircraft during the same period last year.
    Boeing said Wednesday that it is transitioning to higher production of its best-selling Max aircraft, at a pace of 38 jets a month, up from 31 a month — a plan it outlined earlier this year. Boeing reiterated its 737 delivery forecast of between 400 and 450 planes this year.

    Boeing said it raised output of its 787 Dreamliner aircraft to a planned four per month and stuck with a plan to produce five a month by the end of the year. It expects to deliver as many as 80 of the wide-body planes in 2023.
    Boeing earlier this year reported quality issues in both programs but has maintained delivery projections.
    “With demand strong across our key markets, it is important that we stay focused on execution and on driving stability in our factories and supply chain to ensure we meet our customer commitments,” CEO Dave Calhoun said in a message to employees on Wednesday.
    Boeing’s second-quarter revenue jumped 18% from a year ago to $19.75 billion, but the company still reported a net loss of $149 million, or 25 cents per share. That compares with a profit of $160 million, or 32 cents per share, a year ago, with the most recent quarter’s results weighed down by charges in Boeing’s defense and space units.
    On an adjusted basis, the company reported a loss of $390 million, or 82 cents per share.
    Boeing’s defense, space and security unit reported a loss of $527 million for the quarter, down from a profit a year ago.
    The company said it took a $257 million loss on a launch delay of its crewed Starliner spacecraft, a $189 loss due to higher production costs on its T-7A Red Hawk trainer jet and a $68 million loss on production delays on its MQ-25 program. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Alphabet, Microsoft, PacWest, Snap and more

    Google headquarters in Mountain View, California, US, on Monday, Jan. 30, 2023. Alphabet Inc. is expected to release earnings figures on February 2.
    Marlena Sloss | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making headlines before the bell.
    Alphabet — The Google parent popped more than 6% after topping Wall Street’s second-quarter earnings expectations, fueled by growth in its cloud-computing segment. The company also announced that its chief financial officer, Ruth Porat, would step into a new role as president and chief investment officer.

    Microsoft — The software giant lost about 4% after reporting slowing revenue growth within its cloud business during its fiscal fourth quarter and called for lower-than-expected guidance. Microsoft, however, did beat Wall Street’s estimates, reporting earnings of $2.69 per share on $56.19 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by Refinitiv anticipated earnings per share of $2.55 on revenue of $55.47 billion.
    PacWest — Shares of the regional bank stock jumped more than 28% on news that it will be acquired by Banc of California to create a new firm called Pacific Western. Banc of California shares added about 6%.
    Snap — The Snapchat parent shed more than 18% after issuing weak guidance for the current quarter. Snap topped second-quarter expectations, reporting a narrower-than-expected loss of 2 cent a share on $1.07 billion in revenue. That beat expectations for a 4-cent loss and revenues of $1.05 billion, per Refinitiv.
    Coca-Cola – The beverage giant saw shares climb more than 2% in premarket trading after the company reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped estimates. Its organic revenue increased 11% in the quarter, fueled by higher prices. Coca-Cola also raised its full-year outlook following the strong report.
    Boeing — The aircraft manufacturer rose more than 3% after it posted a revenue beat for the second quarter. Boeing’s losses per share also came in lower than expected. The company’s results were driven by an uptick in airplane deliveries.

    Wells Fargo — The bank stock added 2.5% after announcing a $30 million share buyback program late Tuesday. Wells Fargo also said that its board approved a previously announced dividend hike to 35 cents from 30 cents per share.
    Texas Instruments — Texas Instruments fell 4% even after reporting results that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations. The semiconductor stock shared lighter-than-expected guidance for the current period, citing sluggish demand.
    AT&T — AT&T rose 2% after posting its latest quarterly results. The company topped earnings but fell short on revenue expectations, reporting adjusted earnings per share of 63 cents on $29.92 billion in revenue. Free cash flows topped expectation, which the company said it would use to pay down debt.
    Teladoc Health — Shares jumped 6% after Teladoc Health beat on the top and bottom lines in its most recent quarter. The telehealth company reported a narrower-than-expected loss of 40 cents per share compared to a loss of 41 cents per share, according to the consensus estimate from StreetAccount. The firm also posted revenue of $652.4 million, better than the expected $649.2 million.
    Dish Network — Shares of the telecom company jumped more than 9% in premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported that Dish would start selling its wireless service on Amazon this week.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific — Shares sank 6.6% in the premarket. Thermo Fisher Scientific reported earnings and revenue that fell short of expectations, citing a difficult macro environment.
    Union Pacific — The railroad operator’s stock popper more than 8% even after revenue fell short of expectations. The company named a new CEO and changes to its board.
    — CNBC’s Sarah Min, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim and Jesse Pound contributed reporting More

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    Kraft Heinz looks to revive Maxwell House brand with new instant iced latte with foam

    Kraft Heinz’s Maxwell House is launching instant iced lattes with foam, its first new product in nearly a decade.
    The coffee brand has been losing ground to other players, including coffee shops like Starbucks and Dunkin’.
    Maxwell House hopes to attract younger consumers with the new product line.

    Maxwell House’s new Iced Latte with Foam
    Source: Kraft Heinz

    At 131 years old, Maxwell House is no spring chicken, and most of its loyal drinkers aren’t either.
    But Kraft Heinz is looking to revive the coffee brand by appealing to younger consumers with its new iced latte with foam, its first product launch in nearly a decade.

    Once the country’s top coffee brand, Maxwell House has fallen out of favor with consumers who have grown more sophisticated in their coffee habits and adopted espresso machines, French presses and cold brew makers at home.
    Even within the instant coffee segment, Maxwell House ranks third, trailing Nestle’s Nescafe and JM Smuckers’ Folgers in U.S. market share, according to Euromonitor International data.
    Maxwell House also faces competition from the likes of Starbucks and Dunkin’, both of which offer more convenience and variety at a higher price tag than home-brewed coffee.
    But with its new Iced Latte with Foam, Maxwell House hopes to bridge that gap and win over new customers. Kraft Heinz touts the instant drink as the first of its kind, requiring just one packet, a cup of cold water and a spoon.
    The iced latte with foam is available nationwide at major retailers and on Amazon and comes in three flavors: vanilla, hazelnut and caramel. Each $6.99 package contains six packets, giving each individual iced latte a price of just $1.17.

    Energizing sales

    Parent company Kraft Heinz mulled selling its coffee unit back in 2019, when the food giant was looking to overhaul its ailing business. Instead, it held on to the coffee brands, but they weren’t a focal point of its turnaround strategy, which centered on other iconic brands like Oscar Mayer.
    However, Kraft Heinz now seems to have a revived interest in coffee sales.
    “When I came on about a year and a half ago, there was a kind of turning point in interest in rejuvenating the Kraft Heinz coffee business,” said Tiffin Groff, head of Kraft Heinz’s North American coffee business.
    Last year marked the first that Maxwell House gained market share since 2016, Groff said. She joined Kraft Heinz from Peet’s Coffee, where she spent 12 years growing its packaged-coffee business.
    Under Groff’s leadership, Kraft Heinz launched IHOP-branded coffee in retailers in April. That new line is already attracting younger consumers than the loyal Maxwell House drinker, she said.
    Next year, Kraft Heinz will launch iced lattes with foam under the IHOP name.
    The new product line follows the consumer trend of drinking more cold coffee beverages. For example, Starbucks says more than half of its total U.S. drink sales are cold beverages. Millennials and Gen Z are the biggest consumers of cold coffee drinks.
    And while the idea of an iced latte with foam is nothing new, making cold coffee drinks at home has always been a challenge. Only 7% of coffee consumed at home is cold, according to NPD Group data cited by Kraft Heinz.
    For Maxwell House, the hope is that the new product line will drive more growth for the mature brand.
    Next year, the brand will get a facelift, with updated packaging and a new tagline: “Live Life to the Last Drop.” More

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    Deutsche Bank beats expectations despite 27% drop in profit, jump in costs

    Deutsche Bank on Wednesday reported a net profit of 763 million euros ($842 million) for the second quarter of 2023, narrowly beating expectations despite a 27% year-on-year decline.
    The bank’s net profit attributable to shareholders slightly topped a prediction of 737 million euros in a Reuters poll of analysts, while net revenues rose 11% year-on-year to 7.4 billion euros.
    However, second-quarter non-interest expenses rose 15% year-on-year to 5.6 billion euros, with adjusted costs up 4% to 4.9 billion euros.

    A Deutsche Bank AG branch in the financial district of Frankfurt, Germany, on Friday, May 6, 2022.
    Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Deutsche Bank on Wednesday reported a net profit of 763 million euros ($842 million) for the second quarter of 2023, narrowly beating expectations despite a 27% year-on-year decline.
    The bank’s net profit attributable to shareholders slightly topped a prediction of 737 million euros in a Reuters poll of analysts, though marked a significant drop from the 1.046 billion euros reported in the same quarter of 2022, while net revenues rose 11% year-on-year to 7.4 billion euros.

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    However, second-quarter non-interest expenses rose 15% year-on-year to 5.6 billion euros, with adjusted costs up 4% to 4.9 billion euros. Nonoperating costs includes 395 million euros in litigation charges and 260 million euros in “restructuring and severance related to execution of strategy.”
    In its first-quarter report, the bank flagged job cuts for its non-client facing staff and reported a sharper-than-expected year-on-year fall in investment bank revenues.
    Deutsche’s corporate and private banking divisions enjoyed a strong quarter with revenues up 25% and 11% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the higher interest rate environment. However, its businesses more closely tied to the financial market backdrop — the investment banking and asset management divisions — saw revenues fall 11% and 6%, respectively.
    Deutsche Bank CFO James von Moltke told CNBC that this could be attributed to an unusually strong second quarter of 2022, as market volatility boosted trading volumes and revenues.

    Cost savings

    Speaking to CNBC’s Silvia Amaro on Wednesday, von Moltke said the bank had upped its target for cost savings from 2 billion euros to 2.5 billion euros in a bid to offset the impact of inflation, and was also making substantial business investments to “support future revenue growth,” invest in technology and improve its controls.

    “So for us, it’s a balancing act between delivery on the expense objectives and some of those inflationary impacts. In recent quarters, we’ve succeeded very well, we’ve delivered on our guidance of costs essentially flat to the fourth quarter of last year,” von Moltke said.
    “That’s something that we’re aiming to continue. We feel like the progress we’re making and those expense initiatives is considerable and accelerating.”

    Wednesday’s result marked a 12th straight quarterly profit since the German lender completed a sweeping restructuring plan that began in 2019 with the aim of cutting costs and improving profitability.
    “In the first half of 2023 we again demonstrated good growth momentum across a diversified business portfolio, underlying earnings power and balance sheet resilience. This puts us on a good track towards our 2025 financial targets,” said Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing.
    “Our planned share repurchases enable us to deliver on our goals to distribute capital to our shareholders.”
    Deutsche Bank announced on Tuesday that it plans to initiate up to 450 million euros of share buybacks this year, starting in August, and expects total capital returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2023 to exceed 1 billion euros, compared with around 700 million in 2022.
    Other highlights for the quarter:

    Total revenues stood at 7.4 billion euros, up from 6.65 billion in the second quarter of 2022.
    Total non-interest expenses were 5.6 billion euros, up 15% from 4.87 billion a year earlier.
    The provision for credit losses was 401 million euros, up from 233 million in the same quarter of last year.
    Common equity tier one CET1 capital ratio, a measure of bank liquidity, rose to 13.8% from 13.6% in the previous quarter and 13% a year ago.
    Return on tangible equity stood at 5.4%, down from 7.9% a year ago.

    Benefiting from the Credit Suisse collapse
    Deutsche Bank previously suggested it stood to gain from the collapse of Credit Suisse and its takeover by Swiss rival UBS. CFO von Moltke told CNBC on Wednesday that some of these benefits may already be materializing.
    “All of these things take time. Certainly, on the hiring front, we’ve been able to attract talent as the fallout from the merger takes place, in two areas of our business in particular: wealth management, where we’ve been able to attract around 30 relationship managers over the past several months, and also in our origination and advisory franchise,” von Moltke said.
    “It’s obviously early days to see the revenue impact of those hires, but we’re very confident that we’ve been able to attract strong talent to the platform and fill in gaps, where we can now take advantage more fully of our own platform and market presence.” More

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    China signals more support for real estate with a ‘big change’ in tone

    China is changing its tone on the struggling real estate sector, paving the way for policy support.
    The latest wording from such a high level of government indicates a significant shift in what Beijing will allow local authorities to do about the real estate sector, analysts said.
    These rhetorical changes come as China’s real estate market has slumped further, along with the overall economic slowdown.

    Construction on a real estate project in Yantai, Shandong province, gets under way on July 8, 2023.
    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China is changing its tone on the struggling real estate sector, paving the way for policy support.
    Beijing’s crackdown on the once-hot property market has focused on financial risks of speculation and highly indebted developers such as Evergrande. Despite recent government efforts, home sales have slumped as the overall economy slows.

    This week, a meeting of top Chinese leaders noted a “great change” in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market — and called for policy adjustments. That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese readout of a Politburo meeting on Monday.
    The readout also removed the phrase “houses are for living in, not for speculation” — frequently used in China as a mantra for a tight policy on the property market.
    “For policymakers, the top property-related risk is no longer financial risk, but recession risk,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.

    “In an extremely top-down system like today’s China, the tone from the top is much more important than specific policy measures,” Hu said. He expects detailed policy announcements in the coming months.
    The first time Chinese officials spoke of changes in real estate supply and demand was at a People’s Bank of China press conference on July 14, according to a state media report. Then, the PBOC official hinted at forthcoming property market policies.

    This week, the higher-level Politburo meeting readout included similar language.
    The statement reflects a “much clearer understanding about the seriousness of the situation,” said Qin Gang, executive director of China real estate research institute ICR. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.
    “This is a big change,” he said. He expects policies beneficial to the real estate market and consumption will come out in coming days.
    The Hang Seng Property Development and Management Index rose by 9.78% on Tuesday. State media indicated relaxation in purchase restrictions could come later this year for China’s smaller cities.

    More details needed

    While Beijing’s tone is positive, Ricky Tsang, director of corporate ratings at S&P Global Ratings, said he’s watching for practical changes. Those include easing requirements for buying an apartment, lower down-payments and removing price caps.
    He still expects property sales to fall this year and next, primarily dragged down by performance in less developed cities.
    Residential property sales from July 1 to 20 dropped by more than a third from the same period last month – and one year ago, when China’s Covid controls were still in place, Tsang said, citing industry data published in state media. That’s based on floor space transaction volume.
    Real estate investment has also fallen, down by 7.9% in the first half this year. It’s expected to remain low in the near term, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
    That kind of decline isn’t in line with China’s growth targets, said Zong Liang, chief researcher at the Bank of China.
    Zong pointed out that policymakers’ overall tone has eased, in contrast to prior preference for greater control. The idea of a property tax didn’t even get a hint in the latest meeting, he said.
    He said the Politburo meeting’s removal of a phrase about house speculation means policymakers have achieved a certain level of success — indicating they can move on. That could mean some price volatility might be allowed in segments of the real estate market, but not for properties meant to ensure basic living needs, he added.
    Housing affordability is an area of Beijing’s focus, along with education and health care.

    Developers’ difficulties

    Last year, not only were house prices elevated, but developers had delayed construction on many units due to financing difficulties. Apartments in China are typically sold ahead of completion, and falling sales cut into developers’ cash flows.
    So far, the biggest real estate policy change has been this month’s extension of measures to support developers, which were first revealed in November.
    Still, “developers are having a hard time raising funds from the equity and bond markets,” said Tommy Wu, senior China economist, Commerzbank.
    He expects policy to focus on helping developers get enough funding to complete construction of houses.
    “Confidence of potential homebuyers and housing sales could improve in a sustainable manner only when housing completion is on a firm footing,” Wu said. “This in turn would support developers’ funding and their debt repayment more generally and build a virtuous cycle.”

    What about defaults?

    Worries about China’s real estate market came to the forefront in late 2021 when highly indebted developer Evergrande defaulted.
    Moody’s expects far fewer Chinese developers to default this year since many were able to push back maturities to late next year.
    In 2022, Moody’s recorded 26 defaults among Chinese real estate developers that it covers – a peak, according to senior vice president Kaven Tsang. He said only one issuer has defaulted in the first half of this year.
    But more clarity from Beijing is still needed.
    Despite a 70-basis point decline in mortgage rates since the last peak, home prices and transactions still haven’t gone up, said Gary Ng, senior economist, Natixis CIB Asia Pacific.
    Ten years ago, “the home price would have gone to the moon already,” he said. “That shows quite clearly there is a confidence issue here.” More

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    Wells Fargo announces $30 billion buyback, shares rise

    Wells Fargo announced a $30 billion share buyback program.
    Its stock rose more than 3% in extended trading.

    Wells Fargo building in San Francisco.
    Source: CNBC

    Wells Fargo shares popped Tuesday after the bank said it would buy back $30 billion in stock.
    The company also said its board of directors approved a previously announced dividend increase, to 35 cents per share from the previous 30 cents. The sum is payable on Sept. 1 to shareholders of record on Aug. 4.

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    2 days ago

    Wells Fargo’s stock rose more than 3% in extended trading Tuesday.
    The moves come after the bank beat second-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, driven by a 29% increase in net interest income. A flurry of rate increases by the Federal Reserve since last year has boosted key financial institutions — as borrowers face a larger interest burden.
    The central bank is expected to hike rates again Wednesday as it tries to rein in elevated inflation.
    Democratic lawmakers have introduced multiple bills that aim to curb stock buybacks by major corporations. They say the businesses are passing profits on to wealthier shareholders instead of increasing their employees’ pay.
    The largest U.S. banks have announced plans to raise their quarterly dividends after they cleared the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test last month.
    “Even with these significant investments, our capital levels are strong and we expect them to remain so, allowing us to return excess capital to our shareholders,” Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said in a statement accompanying the bank’s announcement. More