Raphael Stevens

About 75% of the 2.7 million people who have lost Medicaid coverage across 32 states and Washington, D.C., were booted from the program because they did not complete the process to renew their coverage.
This means many of these individual may have lost their insurance despite still being eligible for Medicaid.
States are checking people’s eligibility for Medicaid for the first time in two years after protections put in place during the Covid-19 pandemic expired in April.

Supporters hold up Save Medicaid signs during the Senate Democrats’ news conference at the Capitol with disability advocates to oppose the Republicans’ Graham-Cassidy health-care bill.
Bill Clark | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Nearly three million people have been kicked off Medicaid since Covid-19 pandemic protections expired in April, with three-quarters of those individuals losing coverage despite the fact they may still be eligible for the public health insurance program, according to data from health researcher KFF.
Medicaid is the public health insurance program for lower-income individuals and families. It is heavily financed by the federal government but largely managed by state governments.

The widespread removal of coverage is a worrying trend because people who lose one form of insurance often struggle to find alternative coverage due to the complexity of the U.S. health insurance system, putting them at risk of ultimately becoming uninsured.
About 75% of the 2.7 million people who have lost Medicaid coverage across 32 states and Washington, D.C., were booted from the program because they did not complete the process to renew their coverage, according to the the most recent data, which was published Monday.
That means their insurance may have been terminated even though they are still eligible for Medicaid.
Texas and Florida account for the largest shares of people kicked off Medicaid in recent months. Half a million people have lost their coverage in Texas, 81% of whom had their insurance terminated because they did not complete the renewal process. In Florida, 300,000 people lost coverage, 65% of whom did not complete the paperwork.
The number of people who have lost Medicaid coverage will only increase this month as another 11 states start the renewal process for the first time in two years, including large states such as California and New York.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has estimated that as many as 15 million people could lose coverage when everything is said and done, though many of these individuals are expected to transition to alternative insurance.
Still, nearly seven million people might lose Medicaid coverage even though they remain eligible for the program, according to HHS.

Red tape

Congress barred states from kicking people off Medicaid during the Covid-19 public health emergency in exchange for a boost in funding. As a result, Medicaid enrollment surged to a historic high of more than 86 million people by March 2023, a 26% increase compared with February 2020, according to data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
These Medicaid coverage protections expired in April after lawmakers slipped a provision into federal spending legislation in December that allowed states to start kicking people out of the program if they were no longer eligible. Medicaid eligibility is largely based on income.
But many people are losing coverage simply due to bureaucratic red tape. This often happens when the state has outdated contact information and cannot reach the person. In other cases, a person might not understand how the renewal process works or fail to submit paperwork by the deadline.
It is particularly difficult for people with limited English proficiency to complete the paperwork to renew their Medicaid coverage, said Jennifer Tolbert, an expert on Medicaid and the uninsured at KFF.

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HHS estimated last year that a third of those at risk of losing Medicaid are Hispanic and 15% are Black. The current data coming out of most states is not broken out by demographic groups.
Children are also losing Medicaid coverage in large numbers. At least a quarter of a million kids have been disenrolled from Medicaid in Arkansas, Arizona, Indiana, Oklahoma, Virginia and Washington state, according to KFF. The total number nationwide is likely higher because many states are not providing information on how many children are losing coverage.

Alternative coverage

Health experts worry that people, even those who truly are no longer eligible for Medicaid, due to a change of income, for example, may not transition to another insurer or coverage under the Affordable Care Act, commonly called Obamacare. People have to apply for Obamacare annually, and some individuals might not be aware of how the process works.
HHS has opened a special enrollment period to help people who have been kicked off Medicaid find alternative coverage through Obamacare.
HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said in a June letter to U.S. governors that he was deeply concerned about the number of people unnecessarily losing their Medicaid coverage.
Becerra called on the governors to do everything they can to ensure people do not lose coverage for avoidable reasons. The number of people who have lost Medicaid has more than doubled since Becerra sent that letter.
HHS has the authority to stop states from terminating people’s Medicaid coverage if the agency determines that local authorities are not making a good effort to confirm individuals’ eligibility. CNBC has reached out to HHS for comment on the latest data.
Tolbert said limited data from a handful of states indicates that the number of people transitioning to other forms of insurance appears small, though she said this could change as more information comes in.
The uninsured rate in the U.S. will likely increase if people struggle to return to Medicaid or are unable to smoothly transition to other insurance such as Obamacare, Tolbert said. More

Retailers and brands are trying to cash in on the Barbie buzz, as higher grocery prices and a shift toward services hurts sales of discretionary merchandise.
Macy’s-owned Bloomingdale’s, Gap, Aldo and Crocs are some of the companies with deals with Mattel to create and sell Barbie-themed clothing, shoes and more.
Companies are also thinking beyond Barbie by chasing new and different merchandise that gets shoppers to spend.

Bloomingdale’s is just one of the retailers and brands trying to tap into Barbie buzz. It has a pop-up with exclusive Barbie-inspired apparel and accessories, along with a life-sized Barbie box where shoppers can strike a pose.
Bloomingdale’s

NEW YORK CITY — In the middle of Manhattan, shoppers can step inside of a life-sized Barbie box, strike a pose by a hot pink slide and browse earrings, dresses and candles inspired by the iconic plastic doll.
The pop-up shop inside Bloomingdale’s flagship store is just one example of how retailers are trying to cash in on the buzz ahead of the Friday release of “Barbie” from Warner Bros.

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More than 100 brands, including Bloomingdale’s, Kohl’s, Crocs and Gap, have licensing agreements or other deals with toy maker Mattel to sell Barbie-themed fashion, beauty, accessories and more. Many of those items cater to adults who want to channel childhood memories by donning bright pink heels or lounging on a pool floatie that looks it came out of a Barbie dreamhouse.
Bloomingdale’s has an exclusive collection of Barbie-inspired women’s clothing and accessories for its private label, Aqua. It also hopes to draw shoppers with Barbie-themed window displays on Lexington Ave., special events and complimentary hair styling.
With a splash of hot pink, retailers hope to chase away the summer doldrums and inflation blues. The Barbie merchandise, while hatched months ago in the lead up to the movie, speaks to how retailers have had to work harder and get creative to catch shoppers’ attention and convince them to pay full price. Companies including Bloomingdale’s parent Macy’s, big-box retailer Target and Coach parent Tapestry have warned of weaker sales of discretionary merchandise and big-ticket items in the U.S., as consumers pay more for groceries and spend on services like dining out and traveling.
Plus, millions of Americans have another expense returning this fall: Student loan payments are resuming after a more than three year pandemic-related pause.

Aldo Chief Brand and Product Officer Daianara Grullon Amalfitano said some sparkle and hot pink could help snap shoppers out of a practical, budget-focused mindset.

“This Barbie Aldo collaboration is one of those where maybe that rational thinking just goes out the window and you’re just like, ‘Ah, this makes me feel so happy. So good. I have to have it,'” she said.
About half of Aldo’s Barbie collection sold out in the first week. The company said it’s working on replenishing inventory for the limited-edition collection, which includes 19 items from crossbody bags to pumps.
About half of Aldo’s 317 North American stores carry the line, along with its website. The Aldo products are also available at select Macy’s stores and on Macy’s website.

Aldo has a collection of Barbie shoes and handbags. Some of the items, such as its Barbie platform sandals, sold out within 24 hours, the company said.

Macy’s higher-end department store, Bloomingdale’s, carries the Barbie the Movie x Aqua line in nine stores and online, and mixed in merchandise from other brands. So far, the Barbie merchandise is “selling incredibly well” and appealing to customers across generations, said Frank Berman, the department store’s chief marketing officer.
Berman said the retailer intentionally included items across price points in the Barbie-inspired collection, from a $24 pink candle to rose gold heart stud earrings for $8,350.
“We have a few things that are a little over the top, but it’s curated so that everybody can can have a piece of it,” he said.
Many items in Gap’s Barbie collection have sold out. They include rectangular hot pink adult sunglasses and a T-shirt with Ken in big capital pink letters, both $39.95.

Gap has sold out of some of its popular Barbie items, including rectangular pink sunglasses. Its pink denim jacket is also a top performer across its stores and website.

Barbie to the rescue?

Barbie may not just jolt a sluggish 2023 box office. The buzz could also lift spending on nonessential items that has dropped after a Covid spending spree.
Retailers will likely have to keep offering unique and trendy merchandise to get shoppers to shell out on wants rather than needs as they gear up for the all-important holiday season.
Discretionary general merchandise sales fell by 4% in dollars in June compared with the year-ago period, according to market researcher Circana, the merged company formerly known as The NPD Group and IRI. Unit sales in the category fell by 9% during that timeframe.
Last week, Amazon, Walmart, Target and others drove sales by offering deeper discounts with Amazon Prime Day and other competing promotions. Consumers spent $12.7 billion during the two-day sales event online in the U.S., representing 6.1% growth year-over-year and marking a new record, according to Adobe Analytics.
Barbie cut through as a popular search item last week. It jumped from 85th to 49th on the list of top brands this Prime Day versus last year, according to early data from Numerator. The top Barbie item sold during the sales event was lead actress Margot Robbie’s “Barbie” collectible doll.
As Americans look for deals, Barbie is just one of the ways that retailers are persuading them to look beyond the essentials.

Oliver Chen, a retail analyst for Cowen, said brands have capitalized on trends like the shift toward looser-fitting denim, the return to dressier and more tailored outfits for occasions and the heightened interest in innovative makeup and skincare products.
“Every brand loves newness because newness creates desire,” said Chen.
Barbie is “another floating life jacket” that retailers can grab onto, said Susan Fournier, a professor of marketing and dean of Boston University’s business school. The brand has built-in recognition, nostalgia that resonates across generations and baked-in free marketing because of the movie.
Unlike other movie-themed merchandise, Barbie isn’t just a logo that can get plastered on T-shirts and backpacks, but an aesthetic that cuts across home goods, makeup and clothing and channels an optimism that many shoppers may crave, she said.
“We’re in a pretty messy world,” she said. “We’re in the post-Covid world, which has a ton of baggage. There’s a ton of anxiety. And then you get Barbie and it’s all pink. And I think there’s something super deep about a hunger for that.”
She said some of the brand’s power comes from its complicated legacy. Barbie is closely linked with perfection, with her tiny waist, beautiful home and handsome boyfriend. Yet Barbie was also unmarried and became an astronaut before the first moon landing.
“There is something culturally powerful about living in that contradictory space,” Fournier said.

Inside of Bloomingdale’s pop-up shop in New York City, shoppers can find an exclusive Barbie collection of clothing and accessories from private label Aqua. The retailer’s website and nine stores carry the collection.
Bloomingdale’s

Chasing the Barbie bump and beyond

Other retailers have run a similar playbook with branding inspired by pop culture.
Tapestry-owned Coach has collaborated with beloved brands and celebrities, including Disney and comic strip Peanuts. It had a collection of clothing and accessories inspired by Jean-Michel Basquiat, the late New York artist who became famous in the 1980s for his edgy and graffiti-inspired designs. It recently launched a new collection with actress Kirsten Dunst.
Coach CEO Todd Kahn said the company carefully chooses which partnerships make sense. He said he has enjoyed seeing other brands’ Barbie collaborations, but Coach decided against a partnership.
“So often people use collaborations for a quick spike,” he said. “We’re interested in long-term sustainability. That’s why with our collaborations we’ve become very selective on them. We use them to help bring a new audience to the table. And then we measure how sticky they are afterwards, which is super important.”
For example, he said, Coach’s Basquiat items attracted new and more engaged customers, brought in about 10% more Gen Z and millennial customers than its mainline collections and enticed them to pay some of Coach’s highest price points.
Some brands appear to be getting a Barbie bump — but it remains to be seen whether those customers will stick around.
Berman, Bloomingdale’s longtime chief marketing officer, said the chain sees an increase in store and website traffic when it has collaborations. That’s why the company’s flagship has “The Carousel,” a dedicated pop-up space, which can also be shopped online.
The retailer has blended fashion, a well-recognized brand and a memorable experience many times before. It had a pop-up inspired by Netflix’s hit series, “Bridgerton.” Many years ago, it had a “Moulin Rouge”-themed pop-up, complete with can-can dancers and an appearance by the movie’s star, Nicole Kidman.
Aldo’s Amalfitano declined to share recent sales numbers or its forecast for the year. Yet like other retailers, the footwear and accessories brand has felt the pullback in discretionary spending, she said.
She hopes elevated sales and shopper engagement will continue, even when the Barbie merchandise is gone.
“That’s a burning question,” she said.
— CNBC’s Caitlin Freda and Courtney Reagan contributed to this report. More

Builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes rose 1 point in July to 56, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.
It marks the seventh straight month of gains and the highest level since June 2022. A reading above 50 is considered positive sentiment.
Builders say low supply in the resale market is driving demand for new construction.

Builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes rose 1 point in July to 56, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.
It marks the seventh straight month of gains and the highest level since June 2022. A reading above 50 is considered positive sentiment.

Builders say low supply in the resale market is driving demand for new construction, but higher mortgage rates and supply-side challenges continue to put pressure on the market.
“Although builders continue to remain cautiously optimistic about market conditions, the quarter-point rise in mortgage rates over the past month is a stark reminder of the stop and start process the market will experience as the Federal Reserve nears the end of the ongoing tightening cycle,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage crossed over 7% briefly in May and then again at the end of June. It has only come down slightly in the last week. Those higher rates are straining affordability in the market, where prices for existing homes are rising yet again.
Of the NAHB index’s three components, current sales conditions in July rose 1 point to 62; buyer traffic increased 3 points to 40, the highest reading since June of last year; and sales expectations in the next six months fell 2 points to 60. The drop in expectations is due to that jump in interest rates and the resulting hit to affordability.
Despite higher mortgage rates, however, builders are using fewer incentives. Just 22% of builders reported cutting prices in July. This is down from 25% in June and 27% in May.
Sales of newly built homes in May, the latest reading available, jumped 13% compared with April and were 20% higher than May 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The median price was down over 7% from May of last year, but that median may be skewed by the mix of homes selling, which is currently leaning toward the lower end. More