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    Most investors believe we are in a new bull market and there will be no recession in 2023

    The 13th Annual CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor Summit—New York City, September 28, 2023.  Register below

    Traders on the floor of the NYSE, June 29, 2023.
    Source: NYSE

    The majority of Wall Street investors believe stocks have entered a new bull market and the U.S. economy will skirt a recession in 2023, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey.
    We polled about 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money about where they stood on the markets for the third quarter and forward. The survey was conducted over the last week.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Sixty-one percent of respondents believe the market has entered a new bull run, while 39% think this is a bear market rally.
    Technically speaking, some have already declared a brand new bull market after the S&P 500 met the most simplistic standard by closing up 20% from its October bear market low. However, many investors do not consider it the end of a bear market until the S&P 500 reaches a new high. The all-time closing high for the broader benchmark is 4,796.56. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4,396.44.
    The market has managed to climb a wall of worries so far this year, including rate hikes, a debt ceiling debate and a series of bank failures. The S&P 500 is about to end the first half with flying colors, up nearly 15% after four straight winning months in a row. The performance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is even more impressive — up 30% this year — amid Wall Street’s obsession with artificial intelligence.
    “There are many reasons to be constructive on U.S. stocks in the second half of 2023, particularly because we have finally started to see more market breadth,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at the BMO Family Office.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    The majority of the investors believe the economy will avoid a severe downturn at least for this year despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate increases. The Fed hiked at each meeting since March 2022, a span that included four straight three-quarter point moves, before taking a break in June.

    Many think the unique circumstances this time around — an unprecedented pandemic, which prompted historic fiscal and monetary responses — might result in a downturn unlike any other in the history.
    “We should not expect a standard recession in this unorthodox cycle,” said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The economy may instead experience rolling recessions across different segments.”

    Arrows pointing outwards

    In terms of where investors are putting money to work for the rest of 2023, they believe the best returns can be found in short-term Treasurys and the S&P 500 as well as foreign stock markets like Japan, China and Europe. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Apple, Meta Platforms, Carnival, Nike and more

    The 2023 Apple Worldwide Developers Conference logo is displayed on a smartphone screen.
    Rafael Henrique | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading Friday.
    Apple — Shares of the tech giant gained more than 1%, bringing the company’s market value to more than $3 trillion, a milestone first achieved in January 2022. Citi also slapped a $240 price target on the stock, the highest on Wall Street.

    Coinbase — Shares of the crypto services company slid 4% midday, pressured by a dip in the bitcoin price that followed a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is calling recent bitcoin exchange-traded funds filings inadequate. Coinbase is the crypto custody partner for BlackRock, whose bitcoin ETF filing earlier this month set off a wave of followers and a rally in the price of bitcoin and Coinbase shares.
    Pacific Biosciences — The biotech stock popped 5.8% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage at a buy, noting the company could be at an inflection point with a new sequencing instrument.
    SolarEdge — The solar stock rose 3.3% after Bank of America raised its price target to $396 from $379. The new target implies upside of more than 50% from Thursday’s close. The bank also said it has a healthy diversified structural growth story.
    Bright Health Group — Shares added 2.6% in midday trading after the health insurer announced a deal to sell its California Medicare Advantage business to Molina Healthcare for roughly $600 million.
    Nike — Shares of the sneaker giant fell 2.5% after Nike posted its first earnings miss in three years and reported a decline in margins for its fiscal fourth quarter, which it attributed to higher product input costs, elevated freight and logistics costs, an uptick in promotions and unfavorable currency exchange rates.

    Meta Platforms — The social media stock added 2.1% after the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority closed its investigation into the company’s sale of Giphy to Shutterstock.
    Xpeng — The Chinese electric-vehicle maker surged more than 12% after unveiling its G6 SUV, which Xpeng is pricing competitively with Tesla’s popular Model Y.
    Carnival — The cruise stock climbed more than 8% after an upgrade from Jefferies to buy from hold, citing leadership changes and an improved outlook.
    — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Tanaya Macheel and Sarah Min contributed reporting. More

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    Medicare will allow pharmaceutical companies to publicly discuss drug price negotiations

    Medicare dropped a confidentiality requirement that banned pharmaceutical companies from publicly discussing drug price negotiations set to begin this fall.
    In revised guidance, Medicare said a company “may choose to publicly disclose information regarding ongoing negotiations at its discretion.”
    Drugmakers had sued the federal government, arguing that the requirement violated the First Amendment.

    Hundreds of 1199SEIU health care workers staged a rally and sit to block 3rd avenue where some were arrested. They protested against health care cuts in Governor Kathy Hochuls budget on Medicare.
    Lev Radin | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Medicare on Friday said it will allow pharmaceutical companies to publicly discuss the program’s historic drug price negotiations, dropping a confidentiality requirement that the industry argued violated the First Amendment in lawsuits filed this month.
    In initial guidance released in March, Medicare had forbidden the industry from publicly disclosing information on the lower price initially offered by the federal government for drugs targeted under the program, as well as the government’s reasons for selecting that price point.

    Medicare had also forbidden companies from disclosing any verbal conversations during the negotiation period. It also required companies to destroy any information within 30 days if the drug is no longer selected for negotiations.
    In revised guidance released Friday, Medicare said a company “may choose to publicly disclose information regarding ongoing negotiations at its discretion.”
    The Inflation Reduction Act, passed last year, empowered Medicare to directly negotiate with pharmaceutical companies over prices for the first time. The program is the central pillar of the Biden administration’s efforts to control rising drug prices in the U.S.
    Merck, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Bristol Myers Squibb and the industry lobbying group Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America asked federal courts this month to declare the drug price negotiations unconstitutional.
    Merck, the chamber and Bristol Myers Squibb argued in their lawsuits that Medicare had imposed a gag order that effectively banned the companies from publicly disagreeing with the federal government’s position in violation of the First Amendment.

    The industry’s lawsuits, however, are also focused on broader claims that the program violates due process and the seizure of private property without just compensation under the Fifth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
    Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra on Friday vowed to press ahead with the negotiations despite pharmaceutical industry’s lawsuits.
    “Pharmaceutical companies have made record profits for decades,” Becerra said in a statement. “Now they’re lining up to block this Administration’s work to negotiate for better drug prices for our families.
    “We won’t be deterred,” Becerra said
    HHS will release a list of 10 high-cost drugs selected for negotiation by September. The companies have to decide whether to participate in the negotiations the following month.
    Drugmakers that choose not to participate face severe financial penalties. They can avoid these penalties by terminating their participation in Medicare and Medicaid drug rebate programs.
    The companies have argued that withdrawing from the rebate programs is not a feasible alternative because the programs represent nearly half of the nation’s annual spending on prescription drugs. More

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    People should stop taking Ozempic, Wegovy obesity drugs before surgery, doctors group says

    People on diabetes and weight loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy should stop taking them before elective surgery to reduce the risk of serious complications, a prominent doctors group said. 
    The group has received anecdotal reports from across the U.S. that patients taking the drugs, known as GLP-1s, during general anesthesia may be at increased risk of nausea, vomiting and aspiration.

    In this photo illustration, a box of the diabetes drug Ozempic rests on a pharmacy counter on April 17, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. 
    Mario Tama | Getty Images

    People on diabetes and weight loss drugs such as Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy should stop taking them before having elective surgery to reduce the risk of serious health complications, a prominent group of doctors said. 
    The American Society of Anesthesiologists, an organization of more than 53,000 physicians engaged in anesthesiology, released interim guidance with that suggestion late Thursday. 

    The guidance aims to help doctors manage patients on those drugs who are scheduled to undergo elective surgeries, which are non-emergency procedures such as kidney stone removal, joint replacement and cosmetic surgery. 
    The ASA said the guidance reflects concerns related to delayed stomach emptying, or when food sits in the stomach for longer than usual. That’s one effect of diabetes and weight loss drugs, which mimic a hormone produced in the gut called GLP-1 and ultimately suppress a person’s appetite. 
    Delayed stomach emptying may cause patients undergoing anesthesia to experience nausea, vomiting and aspiration, which is when a person accidentally breathes food into their lungs rather than swallowing it, according to the ASA.
    That’s why patients are typically required to fast before undergoing anesthesia for procedures. 
    The ASA has received anecdotal reports from across the U.S. that patients taking the drugs during general anesthesia and deep sedation may be at increased risk of those “serious” complications, the group’s president, Dr. Michael Champeau, said in the guidance. 

    Ozempic and Wegovy are already associated with stomach issues like diarrhea and constipation. But Champeau acknowledged that there is still a lack of scientific data on how exactly anesthesia interacts with those drugs, which are also known as GLP-1s.  
    Each day, about 60,000 people nationwide receive general anesthesia, or medication administered for pain relief during surgeries and other procedures. 
    It’s unclear how many people take GLP-1 drugs each day, but their popularity skyrocketed over the last year for being weight loss “miracles.” Now, Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy are plagued by nationwide shortages. They also face growing competition from similar treatments like Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro. 
    Under the ASA’s guidance, people taking GLP-1 drugs on a daily basis should skip treatment on the day of elective surgery.
    Those taking GLP-1s weekly should stop treatment a week before the scheduled surgery, the group said. 
    Prior to surgery, doctors should consider consulting with an endocrinologist for guidance on patients who take GLP-1s for diabetes. 
    The group also said doctors should consider delaying a patient’s procedure if that person experiences nausea, vomiting or abdominal bloating or pain on the day of their scheduled procedure. 
    If a patient has none of those symptoms but did not stop using GLP-1s before the surgery, doctors should consider using ultrasound to check if they have a “full stomach.” More

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    Canceled, delayed flights are likely over July 4 holiday weekend. What to know about your rights

    The July 4 holiday weekend is expected to be the busiest on record. It may also come with thousands of flight delays and cancellations.
    Consumers who experience a flight disruption have recourse in some cases.
    U.S. Department of Transportation’s Airline Customer Service Dashboard outlines commitments that the largest airlines have made to passengers, if a disruption is their fault.

    Andrew Bret Wallis | DigitalVision | Getty Images

    Why are flight interruptions expected?

    Over 2.8 million travelers are expected to pass through airport security checkpoints on Friday — a single-day record, according to the Transportation Security Administration.
    The TSA is prepared for “sustained higher passenger volumes” throughout the summer, with June 29 through July 5 being the busiest period.
    This comes as severe storms and staffing shortages have already derailed thousands of flights this week. Storms are forecast across swaths of the U.S. heading into the weekend.

    A technology issue may also snarl air travel this weekend. Starting Saturday, wireless carriers will be allowed to boost their 5G signal power, and planes that aren’t retrofitted with certain equipment to prevent interference from such transmissions won’t be allowed to land when visibility is poor, as during bad weather, said Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

    “It’s a whole mix of factors,” said Kimberly Palmer, personal finance expert at NerdWallet. “We do expect to see a lot of delays, unfortunately.”

    What is your recourse for a delayed or canceled flight?

    Travelers impacted by a flight disruption may have some recourse. But the rules differ depending on the situation and airline.
    Federal law doesn’t require airlines to pay compensation to passengers for delays, Palmer said.
    If airlines cancel a flight for any reason, passengers are legally entitled to a full refund, including for ticket price, taxes, baggage fees, extra charges and ancillary fees. Travelers must receive that refund within seven business days if they paid by credit card, and within 20 days if by cash or check.
    “You don’t have to accept a rebooking, voucher or anything,” Murray said. “They have to give you a refund if that’s what you want.”

    We do expect to see a lot of delays, unfortunately

    Kimberly Palmer
    personal finance expert at NerdWallet

    Of course, that policy doesn’t necessarily help defray other incurred costs like food and lodging, or help travelers who would rather continue to their destination instead of accept a refund.
    Here, airlines have some discretion to dole out money — especially if a delay or cancellation is their fault and not due to something beyond their control, like bad weather.
    “There’s no reason not to ask,” Palmer said.
    The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Airline Customer Service Dashboard outlines passenger rights for specific airlines. The list outlines commitments made by the 10 largest carriers in the event of “controllable” cancellations and delays.
    “These aren’t suggestions,” Murray said of the commitments. “It’s binding.”

    For example: All major carriers will rebook passengers on the same airline at no additional cost for “significant” delays and will cover meals if there’s a delay of three hours or more. Some will rebook on a partner airline at no additional cost.
    All major airlines (except for Frontier) will cover a hotel stay and transportation to the hotel in the event of an overnight cancellation. Six of 10 will rebook on another airline at no extra cost. Just two offer credits or travel vouchers if a cancellation causes a wait of at least three hours.
    Even if a delay isn’t their fault, many airlines will transfer your ticket to another airline’s flight with available seats at no additional cost — if you ask, according to the U.S. PIRG Education Fund.
    Of course, none of these options help travelers who, in the face of a flight disruption, opt for another mode of transit like a rental car, Palmer said.
    “I think this is a really common situation for people” that could come with “a lot of extra costs,” she said.

    How to reduce the odds of flight woes

    Here are some general travel tips from experts to reduce the odds that a delayed or cancelled flight will impact you.

    Fly early in the day. This is generally when airlines experience the fewest disruptions; if there is one, passengers would likely have ample flight alternatives during the remainder of the day, depending on the route and carrier.
    Try to avoid a connecting flight. Taking two flights instead of one doubles your odds of a disruption.  
    Choose an airline with multiple flights per day to your location, if possible. If a disruption occurs, there are more chances to get on another flight.  
    Check if your credit card offers a payout for flight delays and cancellations. If it does, and you purchased your travel with that card, you may be entitled to certain benefits. More

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    Stocks making the biggest premarket moves: Nike, Apple, Dominion Energy, Carnival and more

    A shopper leaves a Nike store along the Magnificent Mile shopping district with a purchase on December 21, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. 
    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making the biggest moves in premarket trading:
    Nike — Shares dropped nearly 3% following the sports apparel giant reported an earnings miss for the first time in three years. Nike’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings were 66 cents per share, versus the 67 cents consensus estimate, per Refinitiv. However, revenue topped expectations.

    Apple — Apple shares rose 0.8%, putting the tech giant on track to reach a $3 trillion market cap. The move came after Citi set a new price target on shares at a Street-high price of $240.
    Carnival — Shares of the cruise line rose 3% in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded Carnival to buy from hold. Jefferies cited changes during the first year new CEO Josh Weinstein’s tenure and improving leverage as reasons to be optimistic about the stock.
    Savers Value Village — Shares slipped 2% in the premarket, after jumping 27% during their first day of trading Thursday. The largest for-profit thrift operator in the U.S. priced shares at $18 and closed at $22.91.
    Dominion Energy — Shares fell nearly 2% after the company revised its second-quarter operating earnings guidance range to 44 cents to 50 cents a share, down from 58 cents to 68 cents per share. Dominion Energy blamed historically mild weather and unplanned outages at the Millstone Power Station.
    Constellation Brands — The Corona and Pacifico owner slipped 1.6% despite reporting an earnings beat. First-quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.91, topping the $2.83 expected from analysts, per StreetAccount. Revenue was $2.52 billion, versus the $2.47 billion expected.

    Freyr Battery — The stock popped another 5% in premarket trading, following an 11% gain on Thursday. The company was upgraded to overweight from equal weight by Morgan Stanley on Thursday.
    — CNBC’s Sam Subin, Jesse Pound and Alex Harring contributed reporting. More

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    Indiana Jones hits theaters for one last adventure, but box office prospects look shaky

    Box office analysts predict Disney and Lucasfilm’s “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” will capture between $60 million and $65 million during its first three days in theaters.
    The film had a lofty production budget of nearly $300 million, making a strong box office showing important for the studio.
    “Dial of Destiny” has mixed to positive reviews, with critics saying the film doesn’t quite capture the thrill of earlier adventures.

    Harrison Ford returns as Indiana Jones in “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.”

    It’s Harrison Ford’s final bow as the boulder-dodging, whip-wielding, Nazi-punching Indiana Jones.
    On Friday, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” arrives in theaters, marking the fifth and likely final chapter in the Lucasfilm movie franchise.

    Disney spared no expense in bringing the film to the big screen, starting with a nearly $300 million production budget. Factor in marketing costs, which are typically equal to half the production budget, and a swanky premiere and after-party at the Cannes Film Festival, and “Dial of Destiny” has quite a hole to dig itself out of.
    Box office analysts are predicting the film will capture between $60 million and $65 million during its first three days in theaters and around $90 million for the five-day holiday weekend. That would mark the latest mediocre opening in the summer blockbuster season, following disappointing bows for “The Flash,” “Elemental” and “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” earlier this month.
    It would also fall well short of the $100 million “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” secured during its first three days in theaters in 2008. Previous Indiana Jones installments, released in the 1980s, saw significantly lower box office openings because tickets were significantly less expensive at that time and the films were released in fewer theaters.
    For instance, “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” was released in more than 4,200 theaters, while 1989’s “The Last Crusade” was released in 2,300 cinemas, according to Comscore data. In 2023, blockbuster features are generally opening in 4,200 locations, with some films, such as Marvel’s “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3,” opening in as many as 4,450 locations.
    “Dial of Destiny” also marks the first time Steven Spielberg hasn’t directed an Indy movie, although the musical score was written by franchise stalwart John Williams. James Mangold, who helmed “Logan” and “Ford v Ferrari,” directed the new one.

    The sequel comes 15 years after the “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull,” which ended up with a 77% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes but was widely panned by audiences. Despite a solid opening, the fourth Indiana Jones film tallied only $317 million domestically. It did manage to reach $786 million globally, according to data from Comscore.
    The lackluster audience response resulted in a pause in future films, including the potential for a spinoff featuring Shia LaBeouf as Indiana Jones’ son Mutt Williams. In 2012, Disney bought Lucasfilm for $4.05 billion, eventually taking the franchise away from its previous studio partner Paramount Pictures. Disney kept the character on ice while it worked on new Star Wars and Willow content — two other franchises that came from Lucasfilm.
    Now, in 2023, the fifth installment in the swashbuckling archaeologist’s movie adventures has generated a 67% “Fresh” score as of Friday morning, with critics saying “Dial of Destiny” doesn’t quite capture the thrill of earlier adventures. Still, with Ford donning his iconic hat and whip combo, the film gives audiences a nostalgic rush, according to the critical consensus.
    It’s unclear whether that will result in a ton of ticket sales, however.
    “The target audience of men over 35, who grew up on the entire series, will need to show up with their families and, perhaps, introduce the iconic character to their little ones who weren’t even around for the previous movie,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “The franchise has overcome stalled pop culture relevance before, but this time it also has to face that added challenge of winning back viewers who weren’t as keen on ‘Crystal Skull’ as they were for the original films.”
    Hollywood has had mixed results with nostalgia plays in recent years. While “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” captured healthy box office sales, others have floundered on the big screen. “Blade Runner 2049,” “Independence Day: Resurgence” and “Terminator Genisys” came up short with old fans and new audiences in North America.
    “Dial of Destiny” could benefit from audiences keen to see Ford, who will turn 81 next month, hang up his fedora and potentially even pass off the torch to a new generation.
    Even with tepid reviews heading into Friday’s release, Robbins notes that critics and audiences don’t always agree.
    “Indiana Jones’ nature as a traditionally less front-loaded franchise compared to the comic book blockbusters we’re used to seeing play with a short fuse also means a sizable portion of its audience could opt to see the film after the initial fan-driven previews and opening day,” he said.
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Rotten Tomatoes. More

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    Workers at Boeing 737 supplier approve labor deal, ending strike

    Workers at Boeing aircraft parts supplier Spirit Aerosystems approved a new labor deal on Thursday, setting the stage to resume production at a Wichita, Kansas, facility.
    Spirit Aerosystems supplies fuselages for Boeing’s best-selling 737 Max aircraft.
    The production pause came as Boeing scrambles to increase production of new aircraft.

    An aerial view of the engines and fuselage of an unpainted Boeing 737 MAX airplane parked in storage at King County International Airport-Boeing Field in Seattle, Washington, June 1, 2022.
    Lindsey Wasson | Reuters

    Workers at Boeing aircraft parts supplier Spirit Aerosystems approved a new labor deal on Thursday, setting the stage to resume production at a Wichita, Kansas, facility after a work stoppage last week.
    Spirit Aerosystems, which supplies fuselages for Boeing’s best-selling 737 Max aircraft as well as other parts for Boeing and other manufacturers, halted production last Thursday after workers voted against a new proposed contract and in favor of a strike.

    “We continue to monitor the situation as we assess any potential impacts to production and deliveries,” Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing’s commercial airplane unit, said in a note to staff.
    The company and the workers’ union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, had reached a new tentative agreement for the 6,000 workers, the union said on Tuesday. Sixty-three percent of the workers approved the new agreement, the union said.
    “This agreement addresses our members’ concerns with substantial wage increases, maintaining the CORE healthcare plan benefits that the membership insisted on, and includes no mandatory overtime,” the union said Tuesday when the preliminary deal was reached.
    Workers would return on July 5.
    The production pause came as Boeing scrambles to increase production of new aircraft. The company went into the strike with an inventory of some fuselages to continue manufacturing. More