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    Stocks making the biggest premarket moves: Tesla, Darden Restaurants, Anheuser-Busch, Alcoa & more

    A Tesla car dealership is seen on May 31, 2023 in Austin, Texas.
    Brandon Bell | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making the biggest moves in premarket trading:
    Tesla – Shares dropped more than 3% before the bell after Morgan Stanley downgraded the electric vehicle maker to equal weight, citing its steep valuation following the recent AI-fueled rally.

    Darden Restaurants — The company behind Olive Garden and other restaurant chains slid nearly 4% in the premarket. Darden beat expectations of analysts polled by Refinitiv for earnings in the fiscal fourth quarter, while revenue came in line with expectations. Its full-year earnings guidance placed the consensus estimate of analysts polled by FactSet on the higher end of the company’s range. Meanwhile, Darden’s revenue guidance was higher than Wall Street forecasted. The company also increased its quarterly dividend and announced Chairman Eugene Lee would retire.
    Overstock.com — Shares moved nearly 10% higher in premarket trading after the e-commerce discounter won the auction for Bed Bath & Beyond’s digital assets and intellectual property, including the brand’s name. Overstock will pay $21.5 million, the floor price set at the auction.
    NRG Energy — The energy company added 3% following a Wall Street Journal report that activist investor Elliott Investment Management is seeking to remove CEO Mauricio Gutierrez and other top executives.
    Anheuser-Busch Inbev — The beer giant gained 2% after being upgraded by Deutsche Bank to buy from hold. The Wall Street firm said the stock is pricing in only downside risk without the expectation for recovery. Consumers could also inevitably return to Bud Light after fleeing over its collaboration with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney.
    Alcoa — Shares of the aluminum company slumped 3.5% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa to underweight from equal weight. The investment firm said in a note to clients that Alcoa is at risk of missing estimates on a key profit metric in the coming quarters.

    KB Home — The homebuilder fell nearly 2% despite posting a solid earnings beat after the bell Wednesday. Second-quarter earnings per share came in at $1.94, topping the $1.33 expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue was $1.77 billion, versus the $1.42 billion expected. The stock has run up more than 60% this year.
    Spirit Aerosystems — The Boeing supplier sank about 9% after the company suspended production in its factory in Kansas following an announcement that workers will strike, starting Saturday. Boeing shares also dropped 3.4%. Spirit Aerosystems makes Boeing’s 737 Max fuselage, as well as the forward section of many of its other aircrafts.
    Accenture — Shares slid nearly 4% despite an earnings and revenue beat for the consulting company’s fiscal third quarter. However, Accenture also said it expects revenue for fiscal 2023 to be in the 8% to 9% range in local currency, compared to 8% to 10% previously.
    — CNBC’s Samantha Subin, Jesse Pound and Alex Harring contributed reporting. More

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    Olive Garden parent earnings beat estimates, fueled by strong LongHorn Steakhouse sales

    Darden Restaurants reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street’s estimates.
    Former CEO Gene Lee plans to step down as chair of the board.
    Darden’s results for the quarter ended May 28 do not include its $715 million purchase of Ruth’s Chris Steak House.

    Customers enter an Olive Garden restaurant in Pittsburg, California, US, on Friday, Dec. 9, 2022. 
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Darden Restaurants on Thursday reported quarterly earnings that topped Wall Street’s expectations, fueled by strong LongHorn Steakhouse sales.
    The company also announced that former CEO Gene Lee plans to step down as chair of the board. Lee retired a little over a year ago as chief executive. He won’t stand for reelection at the company’s annual shareholders meeting, which is scheduled for Sept. 20.

    “I am proud of what we have accomplished and believe that Darden is well-positioned to continue to grow and prosper for years to come,” Lee said in a statement.
    Shares of the company fell more than 3% in premarket trading.
    Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $2.58 vs. $2.54 expected
    Revenue: $2.77 billion, meeting expectations

    Darden reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $315.1 million, or $2.58 per share, up from $281.7 million, or $2.24 per share, a year earlier.
    Net sales rose 6.4% to $2.77 billion.

    The company’s same-store sales increased 4%, led by a strong performance from LongHorn Steakhouse. The steakhouse chain reported same-store sales growth of 7.1%, topping StreetAccount estimates of 4.9%.
    But Olive Garden, which accounts for roughly 45% of Darden’s sales, reported a weaker-than-expected performance for the quarter. The Italian chain’s same-store sales rose 4.4%, falling short of expectations for 5% growth.
    Darden’s fine dining segment reported same-store sales declines of 1.9%. The division includes The Capital Grille and Eddie V’s.
    Next quarter, the company’s fine dining options will also include Ruth’s Chris Steak House, which the company bought for $715 million. Darden’s results for this quarter, which ended May 28, do not include its latest addition because the company completed the acquisition June 14.
    Looking forward to fiscal 2024, Darden is forecasting net sales of $11.5 billion to $11.6 billion, same-store sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%, and adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of $8.55 to $8.85.
    Its earnings outlook excludes about 34 cents per share, after tax, of expenses related to the Ruth’s Chris integration. The rest of its fiscal 2024 forecast includes Ruth’s Chris’s operating results.
    The restaurant company is also anticipating capital spending of $550 million to $600 million and total inflation of 3% to 4%. More

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    Zaslav contacted Scorsese and Spielberg to ease fears around TCM layoffs

    Warner Bros. Discovery began another round of layoffs this week, this time on the cable-TV network side of its business.
    Networks including the Discovery Channel and TLC were affected, and layoffs and a leadership shuffle took place at Turner Classic Movies, the network known as TCM.
    To quell fears about the state of the classic film channel, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav spoke with top filmmakers Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg and Paul Thomas Anderson.

    David Zaslav
    Olivia Michael | CNBC

    Warner Bros. Discovery employees faced another round of layoffs this week, particularly those in the cable-TV network side of the business.
    The layoffs affected the company’s vast portfolio of cable-TV networks including the Discovery Channel, Investigation Discovery and the Food Network. The Turner Classic Movie channel also was affected and saw a major leadership shakeup as a result, which prompted concern among cinema fans and people dedicated to film preservation.

    Known as TCM, the network is recognized as a place for preservation of classic films and a carefully curated lineup of guest introductions, documentaries and non-English-language movies. Its offerings are among the movies and shows included on Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming app Max.
    The shakeup at the network inspired Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav to reach out to top filmmakers — including “Goodfellas” director and film preservation leader Martin Scorsese; Steven Spielberg, the filmmaker behind a trove of Hollywood masterpieces including “Schindler’s List;” and Paul Thomas Anderson, who directed acclaimed hits like “There Will Be Blood” — to reassure them the essence of TCM would not change under new leadership.
    “Turner Classic Movies has always been more than just a channel. It is truly a precious resource of cinema, open 24 hours a day seven days a week,” the trio of filmmakers said in a joint statement. “And while it has never been a financial juggernaut, it has always been a profitable endeavor since its inception.”
    Scorsese, Spielberg and Anderson added that Zaslav contacted them regarding the restructuring of TCM, adding they each spent time talking with the CEO, individually and as a group, “and it’s clear that TCM and classic cinema are very important to him. Our primary aim is to ensure that TCM’s programming is untouched and protected.”

    Director Steven Spielberg.
    Gilbert Flores | Variety | Getty Images

    In April, Spielberg and Anderson had a discussion about film preservation efforts at the TCM Classic Film Festival. Zaslav joined them on stage, according to media reports.

    A representative for Warner Bros. Discovery declined to comment beyond pointing to the filmmakers’ statement.
    The merger between Warner Bros. and Discovery in 2022 created the biggest portfolio of cable-TV networks under one roof during a time of substantial cord cutting as many consumers opt for streaming services. The merger also came when major streaming platforms like Netflix began to see their subscribers plateau and turned their focus from growth to profitability.
    Warner Bros. Discovery has been grappling with a hefty debt load stemming from the merger, and has been looking for ways to lower its costs. It has undergone a number of layoffs – which will amount to thousands of employees losing their jobs – as well as other measures, such as reducing content spending.
    In addition, the company recently rebranded its flagship streaming service as Max, a combination of its Discovery+ and HBO Max content. Content from its cable-TV networks, including TCM, is featured on the service.
    “We are heartened and encouraged by the conversations we’ve had thus far, and we are committed to working together to ensure the continuation of this cultural touchstone that we all treasure,” Scorsese, Spielberg and Anderson said in the statement. More

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    Bank of England surprises with 50 basis point rate hike to tackle persistent inflation

    Thursday’s 50 basis point hike surprised markets, which had priced in a smaller rise.
    Policymakers are walking a tightrope as they attempt to tighten monetary policy sufficiently to quell inflationary pressures without triggering a full-scale mortgage crisis and recession.
    Core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — was 7.1% year on year in May, up from 6.8% in April and the highest rate since March 1992.

    A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021.
    Hollie Adams | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday surprised markets with a 50 basis point hike to interest rates, its 13th consecutive increase as policymakers grapple with persistently high inflation.
    The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the half percentage point increase, which takes the bank’s base rate to 5%. The move defied market expectations, which had priced in around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike.

    Sterling slipped against the dollar after the announcement while yields on U.K. government bonds — known as gilts — also retreated slightly. The yield on the 10-year gilt was down by around 4 basis points. Yields move inversely to prices.
    Fresh data on Wednesday showed annual U.K. consumer price inflation was 8.7% in May, unchanged from the previous month, cementing market expectations that the MPC would opt for another hike. Economists also upped their expectations for further monetary tightening in the future.

    Most worryingly for the central bank, core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — was 7.1% year on year in May, up from 6.8% in April and marking its highest rate since March 1992.
    “There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process, against the background of a tight labour market and continued resilience in demand,” the MPC said in its summary Thursday.
    “The MPC will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures in the economy as a whole, including the tightness of labour market conditions and the behaviour of wage growth and services price inflation. If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”

    Policymakers are walking a tightrope as they attempt to tighten monetary policy sufficiently to quell inflationary pressures without triggering a full-scale mortgage crisis and recession.

    The MPC said that the high number of fixed-rate mortgages means that the full impact of the increase in the bank rate so far “will not be felt for some time.”
    Since the end of 2021, the bank has hiked its main rate from 0.1% to 5%.
    “The economy is doing better than expected, but inflation is still too high and we’ve got to deal with it,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement Thursday.
    “We know this is hard — many people with mortgages or loans will be understandably worried about what this means for them. But if we don’t raise rates now, it could be worse later.”
    A ‘hawkish super-hike’
    Although the market had partially priced in the larger increase, several analysts suggested that the size of the majority voting in favor of it implied a sense of urgency among MPC members.
    Joseph Little, global chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management, said the “hawkish super-hike” comes at a critical juncture for the economy and signals policymakers’ desire to “get ahead of the curve.”
    “The U.K. finds itself in the worst position of major western economies. A cost of living crisis, brought about by rising energy and food prices, has been amplified by structural labour shortages, and has now metastasised into ratcheting wages,” Little said.

    “Inflation pressures show more persistency and more momentum than other western economies, and that forces the Bank into a hawkish corner. Today’s statement has increased concerns of a much-higher terminal policy rate, perhaps as high as 6%.”
    Although all developed economies endured a similar post-Covid pandemic deluge of inflationary pressures, U.K. headline inflation is decelerating at a much slower rate, while the core component is significantly higher than all other G10 nations and still accelerating.
    Huw Davies, investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management, said Thursday’s move from the MPC was “a tacit admission that they have been behind the curve in their hiking policy,” and the rate rise represents “an attempt to regain the initiative and their credibility.”
    “The key problem is that U.K. real rates have consistently been negative despite the tightening cycle. It feels like the BOE will have to inflict more pain on U.K. households to achieve a return to a controlled level of inflation more in line with their inflation target,” Davies said. More

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    Boycotts rarely work — but anti-LGBTQ+ backlash is forcing companies into tough choices

    Boycotts against corporate inclusion of LGBTQ+ Americans are targeting more major businesses.
    Bud Light, in particular, has taken a big financial hit over its partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney.
    While no other company has faced as severe a fallout, the backlash wave has started to jeopardize inclusion that had become commonplace in recent years.
    Cracks have even started to show at some of the locations of Starbucks, which has a more liberal reputation than Anheuser-Busch does.

    Illustration by Gene Kim

    Attacks against businesses for their inclusion of the LGBTQ+ community have forced companies to try to strike a balance between expressing values or risking backlash — and even violence — from a small but vocal part of their customer bases.
    As boycotts move beyond social-media-fueled outrage, companies like Anheuser-Busch, Target and Disney are facing monthslong public relations fiascos that have resulted in market share losses, C-suite shake-ups, legal battles and even threats to employees. In some cases, corporations have drawn the ire of conservative customers for marketing to LGBTQ+ consumers or criticizing laws targeting them — only to face backlash from more liberal shoppers for attempts to appease those who spurned a brand.

    Boycotts usually have little effect on a company’s bottom line, according to experts who have tracked them. The backlash against Bud Light has hit particularly hard because there are similar substitutes for the light lager, constant media coverage has emboldened the boycotters, and the company has not put forth a unified strategy, said Anson Frericks, who spent more than a decade as president of sales and distribution at Anheuser-Busch.
    For companies like Target and Disney, it is unclear if boycotts will hit sales. Even if companies take no financial damage from the backlash, the increasingly aggressive resistance to LGBTQ+ marketing has jeopardized corporate-inclusion efforts that have become commonplace in recent years.
    The backlash wave across the country, which has disproportionately targeted transgender people, has even weighed on large companies with more liberal reputations. The union representing Starbucks baristas said dozens of the chain’s locations are not letting employees decorate for Pride Month in June — including at least one case where workers were told violence in response to Target’s Pride merchandise sparked safety concerns. The company said it has not changed any policy on decorations and is encouraging stores to celebrate Pride Month.

    LGBTQ+ inclusion has in recent years been “standard business practice,” said Sarah Kate Ellis, president and CEO of LGBTQ+ advocacy group GLAAD. But that practice has become trickier amid a “very aggressive legislative session” in which hundreds of anti-LGBTQ bills — which target trans rights and how sexual orientation and gender identity are taught in schools, among other topics — have been introduced by lawmakers across the country.
    Despite the mounting headlines and sustained criticism of Bud Light, corporate boycotts are “overstated,” and those offended by campaigns tied to Pride Month are in the “minority,” Ellis said.

    Bud Light appears to be an outlier

    In April, the brewer ran a March Madness promotion with trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney, who shared a customized Bud Light can on Instagram. Anti-trans politicians and celebrities soon called for boycotts of the beer.

    Anheuser-Busch CEO Brendan Whitworth apologized for the dispute by claiming his company “never intended to be part of a discussion that divides people.” But his statement neither defended the partnership with Mulvaney nor seemed to appease the brand’s conservative critics — adding to pressure across the political spectrum. Two marketing executives — Alissa Heinerscheid and Daniel Blake — were placed on involuntary leave after their role in the partnership.
    The boycott led to Anheuser-Busch losing business to a degree rarely seen following online backlash. Bud Light has seen weekly sales decline in the double digits, and it lost its spot as the top-selling beer in the U.S. for May, according to analysis by Bump Williams Consulting using NielsonIQ data.
    Anheuser-Busch shares have also fallen nearly 15% since the promotion with Mulvaney.

    The boycott of Bud Light, while an outlier in many ways, underscores a larger struggle that corporate America faces as it navigates an increasingly polarized social landscape where taking political positions, or even engaging in multicultural marketing, can be taboo for some customers, said Frericks.
    “Anheuser-Busch has lost sight of who its customer is,” said Frericks, who left the company last year and now works at Strive, an asset management firm that has criticized environmental, social and governance investing platforms. “A brand like Bud Light is a brand that has never been political, but now they’re being shunned by customers on the right, who see this partnership as a very politicized position they’ve taken, and also customers on the left who don’t feel supported amid the backlash.”

    Frericks said that company leadership at first “underestimated” the gravity of the situation and its subsequent decision not to defend the promotion.
    Anheuser has pushed to win back its customers on both the right and left. The company has said it still is backing initiatives to support LGBTQ+ Americans.
    “We remain committed to the programs and partnerships we have forged over decades with organizations to drive economic prosperity across a number of communities, including those in the LGBTQ+ community,” a company spokesperson told CNBC. “Recently, we shared that our partnership with the [National Gay and Lesbian Chamber of Commerce] to empower LGBTQ+ owned small businesses across America will continue for the second year.”
    During a panel at last week’s Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, Anheuser-Busch’s global Chief Marketing Officer Marcel Marcondes called this a pivotal moment in the marketing industry
    “When things get divisive and controversial so easily, I think it’s an important wake-up call to all of us marketers to be very humble,” Marcondes said.

    Brands face backlash

    Pride Month merchandise is displayed at a Target store on May 31, 2023 in San Francisco, California. 
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    It isn’t just Bud Light — brands across the board are facing calls to boycott their goods or services. Even though no other company has appeared to take the financial hit Anheuser-Busch has, the backlash has in some cases led to the curbing of LGBTQ+ inclusion that had become commonplace in recent years.
    In recent months, other companies caught in the crosshairs of reactionary criticism for Pride Month campaigns include Kohl’s, Nike, Adidas, Jack Daniel’s, Ford and Chick-fil-A. None of those companies have appeared to suffer any financial consequences, or pulled LGBTQ+ marketing campaigns.
    Last month, Target announced it would be removing some LGBTQ-themed items from shelves after what a company spokesperson described as “threats” to employees over a line of Pride Month merchandise.
    Through a spokesperson, Target declined to say which merchandise it pulled from shelves or share details of the incidents that led to its decision. The Associated Press has previously reported the merchandise includes “tuck-friendly” swimsuits that allow trans people who have not had gender-affirming operations to conceal their private parts.
    While the big-box retailer has not seen sales slump due to the backlash in the same way Bud Light has, the Target boycott has implications that go beyond the brand or its finances because employees are being harassed, said Lawrence Glickman, a professor of American Studies at Cornell University and the author of “Buying Power: A History of Consumer Activism in America”. 
    Glickman said Target’s boycott is “unusual from the way consumer boycotts have worked in the past” due to its “aggressive, confrontational style” and organizers “associating workers with company policies they have no say in.”
    He warned that Target’s decision to pull its Pride merchandise “is going to embolden those boycotters to maybe take on other companies using the same tactics, or return to Target if they see something else they don’t like.”
    Earlier this month, Starbucks workers in Oklahoma were told restrictions on decorating were out of a concern for safety after recent attacks at Target stores, the union representing baristas said. Starbucks told CNBC that it unwaveringly supports the LGBTQ+ community and hasn’t changed its policies for store decorations.
    Another outlier has come in the form of the Walt Disney Co., which has stood firm against a protracted anti-LGBTQ+ movement in Florida.
    Disney isn’t just fending off calls for a boycott of its theme parks, it is also lodging a legal battle against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whom the entertainment giant accuses of punishing it for its condemnation of a state law critics have called “Don’t Say Gay.” The measure restricts the education of LGBTQ topics in the state’s public schools.
    The ongoing legal feud does not appear to be affecting favorability at Disney World parks in the state, according to data from Morning Consult Brand Intelligence.
    Morning Consult determined that Republican survey respondents had a less favorable view of Disney than Democrats did. But it also found there was no partisan divide among the company’s park visitors.

    “This suggests that while Disney has become a major player in the Florida culture wars, its guests are less concerned with the brand’s politics than the general public,” according to Lindsey Roeschke, travel and hospitality analyst at Morning Consult.
    In fact, theme parks were a bright spot for Disney during its most recent quarterly earnings report. The company’s parks, experiences and products division saw a 17% increase in revenue to $7.7 billion. Around $5.5 billion of that revenue came directly from its theme park locations.
    “If Disney didn’t care so much about diversity internally, I think they would have just caved and done what was being asked of them by Florida politicians,” said Brayden King, a leading researcher of consumer activism at Northwestern University.
    “But for them, these are issues that really matter to who they are, their identity, their culture, their employees and even how they market their products currently,” King added. “They see themselves as a global brand, not just as a Florida brand.”

    Pride under pressure

    Shoppers carry bags across a Pride-themed, rainbow-colored pedestrian crossing.
    David Cliff | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Companies are walking a tightrope as they try to court a community that tends to have high rates of disposable income, receptiveness to tailored advertising and brand loyalty, said GLAAD’s Ellis — but that has also become the target of a storm of legislative attacks and cultural criticism.
    Conservative celebrities and consumers have appeared to latch on to the political targeting of LGBTQ+ individuals and jeopardize inclusion of the community.
    But GLAAD and other groups are taking steps to ensure companies do not abandon their outreach.
    GLAAD, along with more than 100 others groups, wrote a letter to Target last month encouraging the retailer to reject and speak out against anti-LGBTQ extremism during Pride Month. Ellis said she has been counseling more than 200 corporate partners who’ve been “caught off guard” by the animosity.
    “Whether it be Target or Bud Light, companies have been very supportive of our community for decades and have never seen this kind of animosity,” said Ellis. “But they shouldn’t back down now and should absolutely proceed with pride.”
    — CNBC’s Melissa Repko, Sarah Whitten and Amelia Lucas contributed to this report More

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    United to send flight disruption vouchers to travelers’ phones

    United Airlines will start sending meal and hotel vouchers to travelers’ smartphones via its app and website.
    The change will help stop customer service bottlenecks over the phone and at the airport, said Linda Jojo, United’s chief customer officer.
    The airline provides food vouchers for delays of at least three hours caused by the airline and provides hotel vouchers when travelers are forced to stay overnight because of a delay or cancellation caused by the airline, Jojo said.

    Passengers check in for United Airlines flights at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, Dec. 13, 2022.
    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    United Airlines said Thursday it will start sending meal and hotel vouchers for disrupted travel to passengers’ phones, in hopes of avoiding customer service bottlenecks at airports and long hold times at call centers.
    That means rather than stand in line at a customer service desk or dial up an agent, affected travelers can access their vouchers right on their smartphones through the airline’s app or website. United said the updates will make it easier for travelers to rebook, track bags and retrieve vouchers.

    “You’re already stressed out,” Linda Jojo, United’s chief customer officer, said in an interview. “We don’t want you to wait in line.”
    The airline provides food vouchers for flight disruptions of at least three hours caused by the airline, such as a maintenance or technology issue, and hotel vouchers when travelers are forced to stay overnight because of a delay or cancellation caused by the airline, Jojo said. Weather disruptions don’t fit those definitions, she said.

    Source: United Airlines

    Jojo acknowledged that some travelers might not be comfortable with or able to use smartphone technology and the airline’s app.
    “The more we can help the people who are technically savvy, the more we can take the time to help folks who are not technically savvy,” she said.
    Customer compensation and benefits during flight disruptions have recently drawn the attention of the Biden administration. The Transportation Department last month said it would seek new rules to require airlines to compensate passengers for delays and cancellations.
    Last year, about 2% of flights were canceled from April 1 through June 19, while nearly 22% were delayed, according to flight-tracker site FlightAware. The rate of delays for the same time period this year is similar, but only about 1% of flights were canceled. More

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    Investors are hopelessly divided on financial markets

    The quokka, an Australian marsupial about the size of a domestic cat, has full cheeks and a curved mouth that convey the impression—often to delighted tourists—that the critter is smiling. It has been dubbed the happiest animal on Earth. Yet these days it has competition from another species: the American stock investor. The s&p 500 has already risen by 14% this year. An increase of another 10% would take the index back to its all-time high, set in January last year. Excitement about artificial intelligence has lit a fire under companies seen as potential beneficiaries. Although climbing stock prices represent an impressive turnaround, they are not the most astonishing market shift. That award goes to the collapse in volatility. In the past 12 months the vix, an index that measures expected volatility in stock prices, using the cost of insuring against extreme moves, has declined by more than half, falling from around 30 to 13. The last time it was so depressed was in early 2020, before the disruption of covid-19, when concerns about stagnation were more common than worries about inflation. Considering that the vix is sometimes referred to as the “fear gauge”, its low level suggests a quokka-like placidity in the stockmarket.This outlook is all the more astonishing given the surfeit of things about which an investor could worry. There is, for instance, considerable uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next move, which would be a good reason for investors to want a little more protection. When the s&p 500 touched an earlier peak in 2021—a period of higher volatility—the federal funds rate sat at zero (it is now 5%) and ten-year Treasury yields at 1.5% (now 3.7%). Moreover, high rates may prompt something else to break. Recent ructions in American banking were hardly on the radar-screens of investors until days before Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went bust. The failure of another lender, First Republic, came at the beginning of May. Today’s optimism makes it hard to remember that those troubles were so recent. Yet there is another species that looks rather less placid. If stock investors are the quokkas of the financial kingdom, bond investors are the porcupines: wary and naturally defensive. The decline of the vix stands in stark contrast to its equivalent in the Treasury market. Although the move index, which tracks the price of insuring against bond-market volatility, has declined from a 13-year high in March, it is still twice as high as it was pre-covid. Bond investors remain far from convinced that the good times have returned. The divergence in sentiment between the quokkas and porcupines is very different from the early stages of the pandemic, when stocks were extremely volatile and government bonds far less so. Back then, investors were preoccupied with covid’s economic fallout, the development and deployment of vaccines, and the pace of economic reopening. Then inflation picked up and the Fed’s actions became the overwhelming focus. It might be tempting to observe the difference and judge that either the bond or stockmarket must be wrong. But that would not be quite right. If artificial intelligence emerges as a transformative force for the bottom line of major technology companies, but not for economywide growth, it would be a tremendous boon for investors in shares and mean little for government bonds.The problem is that such an outcome is far from assured—and investors are beginning to price stocks based on earnings that are unlikely to materialise any time soon. The price-to-earnings ratio of the s&p 500, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, has climbed from below 16 late last year to 19 now. This is still below the highs set during the pandemic, when earnings expectations were smothered by lockdowns and restrictions, but is higher than at any other point in the past two decades.What the divergence in animal spirits does say is that investors in the stockmarket—mistakenly or not—have left behind concerns that preoccupied them just a couple of months ago. They have traded their manifold worries for an optimistic narrative about artificial intelligence. The rosy outlook suggested by the lack of volatility is ultimately a judgment not just that the new technology will become a revolutionary moneymaker for America’s listed companies, but that the Fed’s decisions will not shake the financial system again and that the economy will withstand the impact of interest-rate rises. As things stand, it looks like a bold bet. ■Read more from Buttonwood, our columnist on financial markets:Sooner or later, America’s financial system could seize up (Jun 15th)Surging stockmarkets are powered by artificial intelligence (Jun 7th)Investors go back into battle with rising interest rates (Jun 1st)Also: How the Buttonwood column got its name More

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    Why investors can’t agree on the financial outlook

    The quokka, an Australian marsupial about the size of a domestic cat, has full cheeks and a curved mouth that convey the impression—often to delighted tourists—that the critter is smiling. It has been dubbed the happiest animal on Earth. Yet these days it has competition from another species: the American stock investor. The s&p 500 has already risen by 14% this year. An increase of another 10% would take the index back to its all-time high, set in January last year. Excitement about artificial intelligence has lit a fire under companies seen as potential beneficiaries. Listen to this story. Enjoy more audio and podcasts on More