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    What Tesla charging partnerships with Ford and GM mean for the EV industry

    Ford Motor, General Motors and Tesla appear to have shifted the tide on the electric vehicle-charging infrastructure in North America.
    Tesla struck agreements with GM and Ford to grant their EV owners access to Tesla Superchargers, and to eventually integrate Tesla’s charging tech into GM and Ford vehicles.
    The deals have broad implications for reliability and mass adoption of EVs.

    TESLA logo on a charging station at on May 26, 2023 in Merklingen, Germany. 
    Harry Langer/ | Defodi Images | Getty Images

    In a matter of weeks, Ford Motor, General Motors and Tesla appear to have shifted the tide on the electric vehicle-charging infrastructure in North America.
    Tesla owners have long enjoyed reliable charging away from home at the company’s Supercharging stations, the largest charging network in North America by far. But the charging industry at large has been fragmented, and non-Tesla owners haven’t had it as easy.

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    All of that will soon change.
    Last month, Ford announced it had made a deal with Tesla that will allow Ford EVs to use Tesla’s charging stations with an adapter — and that starting in 2025, it will make Tesla’s charging tech standard on its own EVs. It was a surprising partnership between rivals, and on Thursday, General Motors said it struck a nearly identical deal with Tesla.
    So why would Ford and GM join forces with Tesla, a company long seen by investors as a threat to the established automakers?
    And what does it mean for EVs?

    Unified charging

    Tesla’s Superchargers use a proprietary plug design, called the North American Charging Standard, or NACS, that doesn’t work with non-Tesla EVs. Most other EVs and charging stations in the U.S. use the public domain Combined Charging System (CCS) plug standard.

    Currently, Tesla EVs can use CCS chargers with an adapter, but only Teslas can use NACS chargers.
    That means while Tesla owners have access to the company’s plentiful and reliable fast-charging stations, drivers of non-Tesla EVs that use CCS have faced a mishmash of networks and often-unreliable equipment.
    The shortcomings of CCS have been a growing concern for Detroit automakers as they ramp up EV production in hopes of selling their electrified models to the masses.
    In a study last year, researchers at the University of California at Berkeley checked 675 CCS fast chargers in the San Francisco Bay Area and found that almost a quarter of them weren’t functional. An August 2022 study by JD Power found similar results for CCS chargers in other parts of the country. Notably, it also found Tesla’s charging network to be much more reliable.
    Tesla originally built the Supercharger network to overcome potential buyers’ concerns about charging on road trips. The extent and reliability of its fast-charging network was a key component of its early sales pitch to customers nervous about going electric — and it has been a key component of the company’s success in the U.S. since.
    In contrast, the spottiness and less-than-stellar reliability of the CCS network has been a challenge for Ford and GM (and other automakers) as they aim to ramp up sales of their own EVs.
    Potential buyers of a Ford or GM EV might like what they experience on a test drive, but without a reliable charging network, both have been at a disadvantage to Tesla. These new deals should go a long way toward leveling the charging playing field.
    Another reason to favor Tesla’s NACS standard over CCS: Tesla’s plugs are considerably smaller and lighter than the CCS fast-charging plugs, which can be cumbersome for older or disabled drivers to use.
    With both Ford and GM eager to win customers who are new to EVs, improving accessibility is a high priority.

    Shortcut savings

    For automakers like Ford and GM that are betting billions on a big shift to EVs, reliability issues with CCS chargers have been seen as a potential barrier to wider adoption. GM said in 2021 that it planned to spend $750 million to improve EV-charging infrastructure in the U.S. and Canada.
    But then Tesla opened up the NACS standard last November, publishing the technical specifications and inviting charging network operators and other automakers to use its plug design.
    For both Ford and GM, that change offered a shortcut — and the potential for big savings.
    “We think we can save up to $400 million in the original three-quarters of a billion dollars that we allocated to this, because we’ve been able to do it faster and more effectively,” Barra said in a Thursday interview with CNBC’s “Fast Money” after announcing the Tesla deal.
    For Ford CEO Jim Farley, these deals also signal what he sees as a new era of collaboration between automakers that goes beyond individual components.
    “We [worked with other automakers] on transmissions and engines without anyone noticing in the ICE world,” Farley said at a Bernstein conference on May 31. “Now, it’s going to be more on the technology side. I think that’s one of the most interesting new dynamics.”

    What about Tesla?

    So what does Tesla get out of the deal to let its competitors use its superior charging network?
    The EV leader will certainly enjoy the added revenue it receives from Ford and GM EV owners each time they charge at a Supercharger station.
    It’ll also enjoy the implicit endorsement of its technology by long-established rivals, and it’ll likely seek a share of the public EV-charging subsidies made available under last year’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
    But the agreements don’t mean Tesla will win a monopoly on public charging in the U.S., even if all automakers eventually adopt the NACS standard.
    The EV giant’s decision to make the NACS standard public means that rival charging network operators are also free to add chargers with NACS plugs — and they almost certainly will.
    In fact, key players are already responding in the wake of the Ford and GM deals. Swiss electrical-equipment giant ABB, a leading maker of commercial EV chargers, said on Friday that it will soon offer NACS plugs as an option on its products. FreeWire Technologies, a California-based startup building fast chargers, announced similar plans after Ford’s deal with Tesla last month.
    Tesla’s primary motivation — at least in public – may be even simpler.
    “Our mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy,” said Rebecca Tinucci, Tesla’s senior director of charging infrastructure, in a statement announcing the GM deal on Thursday. “Giving every EV owner access to ubiquitous and reliable charging is a cornerstone of that mission.” More

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    Lionel Messi is coming to Miami, and he’s boosting MLS ticket sales big time

    Secondary ticket sales for Inter Miami FC have increased 28 times since Lionel Messi announced his move to Major League Soccer.
    Fans can also expect to pay four times as much to see Inter Miami matches.
    The effect isn’t just being felt in Miami. Opponents are seeing a bump as well when they play Inter Miami.

    Lionel Messi celebrates his second goal of the match between Honduras and Argentina at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Sept 23, 2022.
    Icon Sportswire | Icon Sportswire | Getty Images

    It’s been three days since soccer legend Lionel Messi shocked the soccer world by announcing his move to MLS club Inter Miami FC after parting ways with Paris Saint-Germain, and ticket prices around the league are already soaring.
    Secondary ticket market StubHub says sales for Inter Miami’s matches beginning in July have increased nearly 28 times since the announcement.

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    July 2023 matches onward have already sold as many tickets as the entire 2022 season compared with this time last year, the ticketing company said.
    The chance to see Messi, widely regarded as one of the greatest soccer players of all time and a winner of last year’s World Cup, isn’t going to come cheap.
    Average ticket prices on StubHub for the David Beckham-owned team are up 4.5 times, jumping from $24.52 to $124.51 since the news dropped.
    Another secondary ticket site, Vivid Seats, reported the average price to attend a Leagues Cup match between the Mexican League’s Cruz Azul and Inter Miami has soared 1,021%. On June 4, a ticket cost $122, and six days later, that same ticket was going for $1,413.
    In just a few days, Inter Miami went from being the seventh-highest selling team of the 2023 season to the fourth-highest selling team for season sales on StubHub.

    “Supply is limited,” sports business analyst Joe Pompliano said on CNBC’s “Last Call.”
    “If you look at Miami’s stadium, they only have 18K seats. When you look across Europe, in Barcelona specifically [where Messi spent most of his career], they have 100K seats. There is a fundamental imbalance in the supply and demand equation we are seeing,” he added.
    This is all for a team that sits last place in the MLS’ Eastern Conference and is now on the hunt for a new coach after recently firing third-year coach Phil Neville.
    It’s not just Miami seeing the uptick — Messi’s future competitors are also seeing a bump.
    “Messi will be a draw for soccer fans across the country, drawing fans to away matches much like we see with big stars in the NFL and NBA,” said Adam Budelli, a spokesperson for StubHub.
    Messi and Inter Miami are set to visit LAFC at SoFi Stadium on Sept. 3. Sales for the match moved from the 15th highest-selling event of the season to the second — and it’s on track to easily be the No. 1 event of the LAFC season, StubHub data shows.
    In Miami, it’s not just ticket sales that are seeing a nice bump. Merchandise is also taking off.
    Fanatics won’t start printing Messi Inter Miami FC jerseys until the deal is official, but fans are already scooping up team gear in large numbers.
    The digital sports platform says more Inter Miami merchandise has been sold since Wednesday than the previous two months combined.
    Since Wednesday, Inter Miami is a top-five selling team across all sports throughout the Fanatics network.
    Meanwhile, Inter Miami is getting ready to cash in on its future global audience.
    According to Josh Gerben, trademark attorney at Gerben Law, the team filed an application June 5 to trademark the phrase “LIBERTAD PARA SOÑAR,” the Spanish translation of the team’s slogan, “Freedom to Dream.” More

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    Layoffs hit Colorado space companies as funding remains tight

    A pair of Colorado space companies conducted a round of layoffs this past week, seeking to adapt to the new normal of a tight funding environment.
    The layoffs came at Ursa Major, which makes rocket engines, and Orbit Fab, a startup aiming to provide refueling services to spacecraft.
    A person familiar with Ursa Major told CNBC the layoff affected 27% of its employees, or about 80 people, and Orbit Fab confirmed that 10 employees were released in its restructuring.

    The company test fires one of its Ripley rocket engines in Colorado.
    Ursa Major

    A pair of Colorado space companies laid off employees this past week, seeking to adapt to the new normal of a tight funding environment.
    The layoffs came at Ursa Major, which makes rocket engines, and Orbit Fab, a startup aiming to provide refueling services to spacecraft.

    A person familiar with Ursa Major told CNBC the company let go of 27% of its employees, or about 80 people. An Ursa Major spokesperson confirmed to CNBC the company restructured but declined to specify the number of layoffs made. In a statement, Ursa Major said the job reductions are “realigning our workforce to better meet the needs of our national security customers.” 
    “We do want to acknowledge contributions of every current and former Ursa Major professional. Their efforts and achievements cannot be overstated, and we deeply appreciate the advances in space and hypersonic propulsion they helped make possible,” Ursa Major said.
    In LinkedIn posts, multiple former Ursa Major employees wrote Wednesday was a “rough day” at the company, with “top-notch people” let go as part of the “major layoff.”
    Orbit Fab’s Chief Commercial Officer Adam Harris said in a statement to CNBC 10 people were let go this week, and the company will have about 50 employees after the restructuring. It recently hired a new chief operating officer and plans to bring on a chief engineer and others in the coming months.
    “Our refined strategy will enable Orbit Fab to better meet critical and growing demand for in-space refueling infrastructure for commercial and government markets and missions,” Harris said.

    Sign up here to receive weekly editions of CNBC’s Investing in Space newsletter.

    After years of record funding levels in the space sector, the first quarter of 2023 saw the lowest period of investment in the industry since 2015, according to Space Capital.
    Ursa Major last raised money in October, with a $150 million round at a $550 million valuation, according to PitchBook. Based in Berthoud, Colorado, and founded in 2015, the company had about 300 employees before the layoffs. Ursa Major’s lineup of rocket engines has won orders from customers including the Air Force Research Laboratory, Stratolaunch and Astra.
    Orbit Fab raised funds more recently, with a $29 million round in April at a $113 million valuation, per Pitchbook. Based in Lafayette, Colorado, and founded in 2018, Orbit Fab aims to offer spacecraft refueling services as soon as 2025, having launched demonstration flights in 2019 and 2021. It has won early contracts from Space Force and the U.K. Space Agency.
    TechCrunch first reported the Ursa Major layoffs. More

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    Netflix subscriptions rise as password-sharing crackdown takes effect

    Netflix has seen its four biggest days of subscriber additions in the four-and-a-half years that data provider Antenna has been tracking the service.
    The boost comes soon after Netflix began rolling out its password sharing crackdown in the U.S.
    The streamer told its U.S. members via email beginning in late May: “Your Netflix account is for you and the people you live with — your household.”

    Netflix sign in page displayed on a laptop sscreen and Netflix logo displayed on a phone screen are seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on January 2, 2023.
    Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    The Netflix crackdown on password sharing is in its early days in the U.S., but it appears to be having the effect the streamer was looking for – a boost to its subscriber base.
    Since alerting its members in late May of its new password sharing policy, Netflix had its four single largest days of signing up U.S. customers since data provider Antenna began tracking the service. In that time, Netflix has seen nearly 100,000 daily signups on two of the days, according to the report from Antenna.

    On May 23, Netflix began sending out emails to members that it was changing its sharing guidelines, namely that accounts were only to be shared within the same household.
    “Your Netflix account is for you and the people you live with — your household,” the company said in an email that has been sent to members since then.
    As part of the new policy, members have two options for the people using their passwords outside of their household. Either transfer the profile to the person outside of their household so the person can begin a new membership that they pay for on their own, or the member pays an extra fee of $7.99 a month per person outside of their household.
    Since the email began rolling out, average daily signups to Netflix reached 73,000, a 102% increase from the prior 60-day average, which surpassed the spike in sign-ups during the initial lockdowns of the pandemic, according to Antenna.
    Read more: Netflix’s expected password-sharing crackdown puts college students on edge

    Streaming services like Netflix had experienced a big increase in subscribers in the early days of the pandemic when consumers were home during lockdowns. However that subscriber growth trailed off in the following years.
    In 2022, Netflix began to see subscriber growth stagnate, and, like other media companies, it began homing in on ways to make boost revenue. In addition to cracking down on password sharing, Netflix also introduced a cheaper, ad-supported tier.
    While Netflix’s stock took a hit after reporting its first subscriber loss in a decade last year, it has been rebounding since then with the introduction of password-sharing guidelines and ad-supported streaming. Its stock hit a 52-week high on Friday, and is up more than 40% year-to-date.
    The company has said that more than 100 million households share accounts — about 43% of its global user base — affecting its ability to invest in new content.
    Netflix began rolling out password-sharing guidance in international markets earlier this year. It had delayed its crackdown on password sharing in the U.S. from the first quarter to the second quarter. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Sonoma Pharmaceuticals, Braze, Adobe and more

    GMC pickup trucks are displayed for sale on a lot at a General Motors dealership in Austin, Texas, Jan. 5, 2023.
    Brandon Bell | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
    Braze — Shares of the consumer engagement platform rallied 16%. On Thursday, Braze posted a non-GAAP loss of 13 cents on revenue of $101.8 million. Analysts called for a loss of 18 cents per share and revenue of $98.8 million, according to FactSet. Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating on the stock following the report, noting artificial intelligence should help the company gain market share.

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    Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation — On Friday, Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage of Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation with a buy rating, saying the urban air mobility firms are positioned for the long term. Joby shares jumped about 11%, while Archer shares rose 6.2%.
    Sonoma Pharmaceuticals — Shares surged 44%. Sonoma Pharmaceuticals on Thursday announced an intraoperative pulse lavage irrigation treatment that could replace IV bags for some surgical procedures.
    Tesla, General Motors — Tesla rallied 4% and General Motors added 1%. On Thursday, the companies announced a partnership that gives GM access to Tesla’s North America charging stations. GM CEO Mary Barra said it will save the company up to $400 million of its previously announced $750 million investment to build out electric vehicle charging.
    DocuSign — DocuSign shares slid 2.5%. In an earnings call Thursday, CEO Allan C. Thygesen said, “We are seeing more moderate pipeline and cautious customer behavior coupled with smaller deal sizes and lower volumes.” Initially, shares rose in extended trading Thursday after DocuSign beat fiscal first-quarter expectations on the top and bottom lines, posting adjusted earnings of 72 cents a share on $661 million in revenue. Analysts polled by Refinitiv called for earnings of 56 cents a share and $642 million of revenue.
    Adobe — Shares popped 3.4% after Wells Fargo upgraded the software stock to an overweight rating, saying AI should drive continued upside for the stock.

    Target — Target declined about 3.3% after Citi downgraded the retail stock to neutral from buy, saying sales may have peaked at the big-box merchandiser.
    — CNBC’s Michelle Fox, Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed reporting. More

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    Ron Insana says an A.I. bubble may be forming, but we’re not there yet

    Jaap Arriens | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    There has been much discussion in the financial media of late as to whether there’s another bubble forming in the publicly traded shares of companies involved in the development and use of artificial intelligence.
    While it’s true that a handful of stocks have enjoyed powerful rallies, from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google parent Alphabet, to Oracle and Adobe, the intense interest in Generative AI has not yet generated a bubble in said shares.

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    Let’s remember the elements of a bubble, as defined by many market historians who have written about such financial market phenomena (myself included).
    Historians and economists such as Charles MacKay (“Some Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”), John Kenneth Galbraith (“The Great Crash, 1929”), Edward Chancellor (“Devil Take the Hindmost”) and Charles Kindleberger (“Manias, Panics and Crashes”) have written extraordinary books about the recurring tendency for investors to go crazy for stocks.

    The bubble books chronicle everything from the 17th century Dutch tulip mania to the South Sea and Mississippi bubbles in England and France in the 18th century to the Jazz Age craze for stocks in the Roaring ’20s.
    They also include Japan’s stock and property bubbles in the 1980s, the internet frenzy in the 1990s and, most recently, the global real estate and credit bubble that caused the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.
    In each case there were several common characteristics that defined the bubbles, from early disbelief that a particular asset or technology has transformational potential to wider acceptance, to rapid advances in asset prices and on to broad public participation in the mania coupled with massive issuance of stock by any company even marginally associated with the craze.

    Lessons from the dotcom bubble

    Yes, we’ve all very quickly come to believe in AI’s transformational potential, but only a handful of companies have been bid up in anticipation that generative AI will dramatically alter the way in which we work and live.
    The public increasingly has been buying related tech stocks and associated ETFs, but we have yet to see the single-minded focus of the entire stock buying world come to bear on AI stocks.
    With greater interest comes even much greater issuance until the supply of stocks participating in the bubble exceeds even the extreme demand among traders and investors.
    In 1999 alone, some 456 stocks went public at the height of the internet mania. Some 77% of them had no profits. Indeed, in 1999, excluding the five biggest stocks in the Nasdaq 100, the P/E of the remainder topped 3,000%.
    In my own bubble book, “TrendWatching,” I noted that in 1998 and ’99, “first day returns on IPOs exceeded 50%” while in 1999, one quarter of all IPOs doubled on their first day of trading.
    As my colleague, David Faber, noted on CNBC earlier this week, K-Tel, which sold music on late-night TV infomercials, soared from under $5 per share to over $30, just by announcing that it was converting to an internet-based strategy.
    Like most other stocks, many with price/earnings ratios that were infinite, crashed, cratered and simply went out of business.
    The Nasdaq Composite soared 85% in 1999, still a record annual gain for any U.S.-based index in a single calendar year. By 2003, it had plunged about 75%.
    If there is to be a bubble in AI, it’s the early days.
    Also, “easy money” from the Federal Reserve, a key component of financial frenzies, is not fueling speculation in publicly traded AI shares, or any other asset class, for that matter.
    The public is not yet all in. In other words, we ain’t there yet.

    Bubbles are easy to spot

    The gains have been concentrated, as we have seen, in five or six stocks. Granted, they have pushed the Nasdaq 100 up by 33% year to date, impressive to be sure, but this seems more like the so-called “Nifty 50” performance of cutting-edge companies in the early 1970s than it is like the internet bubble of the late 1990s.
    Some experts say it’s impossible to identify a bubble while it’s inflating.
    I would argue, after having covered several, they are actually pretty easy to spot. And, even more importantly, there is an enormous difference between a tiny bubble and a massive one.
    The big bubbles that burst in the past crashed markets and, in some cases, entire economies, as happened in Japan in the 1990s or here in the U.S. after the real estate and credit crises nearly destroyed the entire financial system.
    For now, AI is garnering much attention and a fair amount of investment dollars but not all of the available funds in finance.
    The day may come when intelligent investors speculate on artificial intelligence without care for revenues or profits, focused just on potential.
    When that day comes truly smart money will be separated from the dumb money as bets on intelligence become extremely unintelligent.
    Commentary by Ron Insana, a CNBC and MSNBC contributor and the author of four books on Wall Street. Follow him on Twitter @rinsana. More

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    JPMorgan bond chief Bob Michele sees worrying echoes of 2008 in market calm

    The current market reminds Bob Michele, chief investment officer for JPMorgan Chase’s massive asset management arm, of a deceptive lull during the 2008 financial crisis.
    In previous rate-hiking cycles going back to 1980, recessions start an average of 13 months after the Fed’s final rate increase, he said.
    Pain is likely to be greatest in three areas of the economy: Regional banks, commercial real estate and junk-rated corporate borrowers, he said.

    Bob Michele, Managing Director, is the Chief Investment Officer and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (GFICC) group at JPMorgan.

    To at least one market veteran, the stock market’s resurgence after a string of bank failures and rapid interest rate hikes means only one thing: Watch out.
    The current period reminds Bob Michele, chief investment officer for JPMorgan Chase’s massive asset management arm, of a deceptive lull during the 2008 financial crisis, he said in an interview at the bank’s New York headquarters.

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    “This does remind me an awful lot of that March-to-June period in 2008,” said Michele, rattling off the parallels.
    Then, as now, investors were concerned about the stability of U.S. banks. In both cases, Michele’s employer calmed frayed nerves by swooping in to acquire a troubled competitor. Last month, JPMorgan bought failed regional player First Republic; in March 2008, JPMorgan took over the investment bank Bear Stearns.
    “The markets viewed it as, there was a crisis, there was a policy response and the crisis is solved,” he said. “Then you had a steady three-month rally in equity markets.”
    The end to a nearly 15-year period of cheap money and low interest rates around the world has vexed investors and market observers alike. Top Wall Street executives, including Michele’s boss Jamie Dimon, have raised alarms about the economy for more than a year. Higher rates, the reversal of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying programs and overseas strife made for a potentially dangerous combination, Dimon and others have said.
    But the American economy has remained surprisingly resilient, as May payroll figures surged more than expected and rising stocks caused some to call the start of a fresh bull market. The crosscurrents have divided the investing world into roughly two camps: Those who see a soft landing for the world’s biggest economy and those who envision something far worse.

    Calm before the storm

    For Michele, who began his career four decades ago, the signs are clear: The next few months are merely a calm before the storm. Michele oversees more than $700 billion in assets for JPMorgan and is also global head of fixed income for the bank’s asset management arm.
    In previous rate-hiking cycles going back to 1980, recessions start an average of 13 months after the Fed’s final rate increase, he said. The central bank’s most recent move happened in May.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    In that ambiguous period just after the Fed has finished raising rates, “you’re not in a recession; it looks like a soft landing” because the economy is still growing, Michele said.
    “But it would be a miracle if this ended without recession,” he added.
    The economy will probably tip into recession by the end of the year, Michele said. While the downturn’s start could get pushed back, thanks to the lingering effects of Covid stimulus funds, he said the destination is clear.
    “I’m highly confident that we’re going to be in recession a year from now,” he said.

    Rate shock

    Other market watchers do not share Michele’s view.
    BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder said last month that the economy is in “much better shape” than the consensus view and could avoid a deep recession. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius recently dialed down the probability of a recession within a year to just 25%. Even among those who see recession ahead, few think it will be as severe as the 2008 downturn.
    To start his argument that a recession is coming, Michele points out that the Fed’s moves since March 2022 are its most aggressive series of rate increases in four decades. The cycle coincides with the central bank’s steps to rein in market liquidity through a process known as quantitative tightening. By allowing its bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds, the Fed hopes to shrink its balance sheet by up to $95 billion a month.
    “We’re seeing things that you only see in recession or where you wind up in recession,” he said, starting with the roughly 500-basis point “rate shock” in the past year.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Other signs pointing to an economic slowdown include tightening credit, according to loan officer surveys; rising unemployment filings, shortening vendor delivery times, the inverted yield curve and falling commodities values, Michele said.

    Pain trade

    The pain is likely to be greatest, he said, in three areas of the economy: regional banks, commercial real estate and junk-rated corporate borrowers. Michele said he believes a reckoning is likely for each.  
    Regional banks still face pressure because of investment losses tied to higher interest rates and are reliant on government programs to help meet deposit outflows, he noted.
    “I don’t think it’s been fully solved yet; I think it’s been stabilized by government support,” he said.
    Downtown office space in many cities is “almost a wasteland” of unoccupied buildings, he said. Property owners faced with refinancing debt at far higher interest rates may simply walk away from their loans, as some have already done. Those defaults will hit regional bank portfolios and real estate investment trusts, he said.

    A woman wearing her facemask walks past advertising for office and retail space available in downtown Los Angeles, California on May 4, 2020.
    Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

    “There are a lot of things that resonate with 2008,” including overvalued real estate, he said. “Yet until it happened, it was largely dismissed.”
    Last, he said below investment grade-rated companies that have enjoyed relatively cheap borrowing costs now face a far different funding environment; those that need to refinance floating-rate loans may hit a wall.
    “There are a lot of companies sitting on very low-cost funding; when they go to refinance, it will double, triple or they won’t be able to and they’ll have to go through some sort of restructuring or default,” he said.

    Ribbing Rieder

    Given his worldview, Michele said he is conservative with his investments, which include investment grade corporate credit and securitized mortgages.
    “Everything we own in our portfolios, we’re stressing for a couple quarters of -3% to -5% real GDP,” he said.
    That contrasts JPMorgan with other market participants, including his counterpart Rieder of BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager.
    “Some of the difference with some of our competitors is they feel more comfortable with credit, so they are willing to add lower-rate credits believing that they’ll be fine in a soft landing,” he said.
    Despite gently ribbing his competitor, Michele said he and Rieder were “very friendly” and have known each other for three decades, dating to when Michele was at BlackRock and Rieder was at Lehman Brothers. Rieder recently teased Michele about a JPMorgan dictate that executives had to work from offices five days a week, Michele said.
    Now, the economy’s path could write the latest chapter in their low-key rivalry, leaving one of the bond titans to look like the more astute investor. More

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    Livestream shopping booms as small businesses strike gold on social media

    Livestream shopping started on social media in China, and according to research firm Coresight Research, has grown into a $512 billion market.
    TikTok, Poshmark and eBay all told CNBC they’re currently testing livestream shopping.
    Influencers and small business owners are fine-tuning their business models, which usually involves some profit-sharing.

    Last year, Anthony Velez, CEO of Bagriculture, a small business selling pre-owned designer handbags, made up to $100,000 a month across his seven brick-and-mortar stores in New York City.
    This year, business is much different: Velez has closed all of his physical locations, but he’s generating up to $100,000 a day.

    The secret to his success, he told CNBC, has been diving into the world of livestream shopping.
    “All the metrics exceed any other form of shopping I’ve seen – period,” Velez said. “We can go live on three to four platforms simultaneously.”
    The trend involves a seller broadcasting live video of themselves showing and explaining products while viewers ask questions and make purchases in real time. Livestream shopping started on social media in China, and according to Coresight Research, has grown into a $512 billion market.
    That market size might explain why some major platforms are rushing to grab a piece of the action here in the U.S.
    “Poshmark, eBay, TikTok. [I’ve gotten] nonstop phone calls,” Velez said. “TikTok flew in from China to meet with us.”

    Anthony Velez, CEO of Bagriculture, a small business selling pre-owned designer handbags, live streams a shopping event.
    Andrea Day | NBC

    In its most recent quarterly report, Coresight Research, which tracks the livestreaming e-commerce industry globally, projected that U.S. livestream sales would reach $32 billion by the end of 2023. However, CEO Deborah Weinswig told CNBC the firm has since revised that projection.
    The original estimate was set early this year, she said, and didn’t fully take into account South Korean internet giant Naver’s acquisition of Poshmark. At the time, TikTok Shops, a way for users to buy products within the app without having to go to a separate e-commerce store, was also still getting its footing.
    Now, “we believe that livestreaming sales in the U.S. could easily reach $50 billion this year,” Weinswig said. The firm also estimates livestream shopping will account for more than 5% of total e-commerce sales in the U.S. by 2026.
    TikTok, Poshmark and eBay all told CNBC they’re currently testing livestream shopping.
    “We’re really bullish for the growth of this new way to shop,” said eBay’s chief product officer, Eddie Garcia. “The sky’s the limit … and we’re gonna keep learning. We’re going to keep investing.”
    Garcia, who oversees eBay Live, the company’s livestreaming platform, said it is currently focused on fashion and collectibles, with plans to expand from there.
    “We have 134 million buyers all around the globe who are chomping at the bit and really thrilled to engage with sellers in this new way,” Garcia said.
    Meanwhile Velez said he’s still fine-tuning his deals with the platforms, which involves handing over some of his earnings. Right now, he pays between 13% and 20% of each sale to cover things like payment processing and promotions.
    “We give a percentage our sale in exchange for visibility, ease of use,” he said.
    Influencer Danielle Santana hosts live shopping shows on Amazon, selling products from other businesses — everything from cheese graters to make-up sponges. She said she gets a cut of every transaction.
    Santana, who can sell 500 to 3,000 items in one show, told CNBC she made six figures just on Amazon Live last year.
    “[My commission] ranges from 2% to upwards of 20% – and that all depends on the category and the items that you are selling,” she said.
    Santana is one of hundreds broadcasting on the platform every day. A spokesperson for Amazon said in an email that “thousands of creators” livestreamed throughout the e-commerce site’s Prime Day event in July of last year.
    And while some major platforms are jumping into livestreaming, one social media giant is pulling out.
    A spokesperson for Facebook and Instagram parent Meta told CNBC by email the company made the “hard decision” to end support for its Live Shopping feature in March.
    Previously, according to Instagram, businesses and creators were able to tag products when they went live on the platform, allowing viewers to buy or save products added to the shopping video.
    “Businesses will still be able to use live broadcasting but the ability to tag products will be going away. This allows us to focus on experiences that provide more value for people and businesses like Reels and Ads that help with product discovery,” the company spokesperson said.
    According to Coresight’s Weinswig, Meta is “missing out.”
    “It could ultimately impact the number of eyeballs, which will impact the advertising dollars. They will also not benefit from the sales being concentrated on their platform,” Weinswig said. “Even the bigger miss for [Meta] will be the community, which will look elsewhere to shop and converse and learn from each other.”
    Weinswig estimates that companies working to establish themselves with livestreaming could see upward of 25% top-line growth.
    So, who is poised to emerge victorious in the livestreaming battle?
    According to Weinswig, it’s TikTok, which has a significant opportunity in the U.S. market given its 150 million monthly active users and popularity with younger consumers.
    The platform’s technological advantage over its competitors enables it to target users with products they may be interested in purchasing.
    Weinswig also noted that TikTok has streamlined the shopping process for users, keeping livestreams and purchases all in-feed — without leaving the app. More