The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit a high of $69,202, topping November 2021’s all-time peak of $68,999.99. Investor interest has increased since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in late January.Bitcoin was recently down around 3.3% at $65,310.ZACH PANDL, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT GRAYSCALE INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK, NY“Although the proximate cause of the rally has been inflows into US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, marginal demand ultimately reflects investor interest in bitcoin’s properties as an alternative ‘store of value’ and decentralized computing network.”“Active trader positioning in bitcoin now appears fairly long. Valuations for ether and most other tokens remain below their highs from the previous crypto cycle.”“If the macro markets backdrop remains favorable, we could see further increases in token valuations- but macro factors could also be a headwind.”ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK“I think the adoption of the new spot bitcoin ETF clearly has been a slow process but continues to gain momentum and that likely drives that imbalance of supply and demand.”“Also, I think the people that are involved in bitcoin know that there is a halving process that happens at the end of April and that likely tamps down even more supply.”“But I think right now you’re seeing basically a broader acceptance of bitcoin and the ease of use of ETFs driving demand (amid) what has always been a constrained supply and that’s really highlighted this week in the parabolic move that we’ve seen.”LAITH KHALAF, HEAD OF INVESTMENT ANALYSIS, AJ BELL, MANCHESTER, UK (VIA EMAIL)“Bitcoin has today hit a record high as the tech-based market melt-up continues to gather pace. At times like these investors need to keep the ‘FOMO’ in check, especially when it comes to something as febrile as crypto. “This might not be the top of the current bull market in Bitcoin, but anyone buying in should be willing to accept the potential downside, especially if the crypto market eventually proves to be the emperor’s new clothes.””The Bank of International Settlements estimates that around three quarters of Bitcoin buyers between 2015-2022 were likely to have lost money, despite a huge rise in the price of the cryptocurrency, almost certainly because they got sucked in at precisely the wrong time.”TAI WONG, INDEPENDENT METALS TRADER, NY”The primary driver behind bitcoin was the SEC approval of the spot bitcoin ETF and the significant inflows that have come in as a result. The surging stock markets and corresponding overall bullish sentiment has also helped.””After a brutal winter the crypto bulls are finally getting their time in the sun. The crypto rally feels a bit overextended to me and looking for a pullback. Another case though where you should only be flat or long because a short, especially leveraged, can get carried out and be ulimately right.”BRIAN DOBSON, MANAGING DIRECTOR, CHARDAN CAPITAL MARKET”This is a near term event, but in the short term you have buying pressure from the ETF’s driving Bitcoin higher. With companies there is also dilution concerns in some of these crypto oriented stocks that’s capping near term performance but over time I would expect this to correct itself.”MARK CONNORS, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH, 3IQ, HOBOKEN, NJ“This is the first time an all time high was reached before the halving – that’s the number one takeaway for me when considering how this cycle could be different. The impact of the Jan. 10th approval of the (spot bitcoin ETFs) is still rippling through the system.” “Bitcoin demand is so much greater than in the past, so (demand) will be the primary driver of the price. The halving will have less of an impact because demand is so great, not just from ETFs but also from — for example, soon, pension funds.” DAVID WAGNER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, APTUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, CINCINNATI, OH”Bitcoin performing well is a sentiment indicator that a risk-on rally is occurring. Not only that, but the Russell 2000 outperforming Small Cap 600 is about as good of an indicator of investor sentiment towards speculation as the price of bitcoin has been. Both have been extreme indicators of speculative frenzy since mid January.””We’ve been fielding more questions from the field on Bitcoin, especially now that there are more efficient and cheaper ways to own bitcoin after the recent slew of ETF launches. In our exploration of the opportunity, we’ve pinpointed IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) and FBTC (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund) as prominent Bitcoin-related ETFs, distinguished by their robust liquidity and appealing expense ratios.”“A notable differentiator for investors considering their options is that FBTC, unlike some counterparts, benefits from Fidelity’s direct custody solution, avoiding the involvement of third-party custodians like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN).”PHILLIP COLMAR, GLOBAL STRATEGIST, MRB PARTNERS, NEW YORK“It’s a very speculative market. Recent new highs in equities, especially U.S. mega-caps, new highs in Bitcoin, new highs in gold, etc., is a clear message that the world is still flush with too much liquidity and does not need Fed rate cuts.”JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VA“Crypto is becoming available to the masses through the bitcoin ETFs and you’re seeing demand for it right now that’s making the price go just vertical. It’s like California real estate on steroids. But I don’t think it says anything about investor sentiment overall because until there’s a better sense of when the Fed’s first rate cut is going to come you really don’t have that many options, which is why you’re seeing gold go up, tech go up, and short-term Treasuries get a bid.” SERGEY NAZAROV, CO-FOUNDER, CHAINLINK, SAN FRANCISCO, CA“Bitcoin’s price often reaches new highs that are not just small bumps, but large leaps beyond the previous records. This suggests that we may be at the beginning of a new positive market cycle for Bitcoin. When Bitcoin’s price surges, it attracts more capital to the ecosystem, which fuels innovation and development within the space.”STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, GREENWICH, CT”Considering bitcoin’s recent rocket ship rise and proximity to a record, a new high seemed all but inevitable and now its mission accomplished for crypto enthusiasts. Demand for the newly listed ETFs is the reason for the recent run-up according to conventional wisdom. However, activity at our firm shows much more interest in crypto related stocks like Coinbase and Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) rather than the ETFs themselves.””Bitcoin has essentially been going straight up for several days. It seemed like a push to the record. Once we got there its normal to see a little bit of profit taking when any asset becomes so extended.”MATTHEW TUTTLE, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, TUTTLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, RIVERSIDE, CONNECTICUT”The spot ETFs are a game changer as they open up Bitcoin to a whole new group of investors that never would set up a bitcoin account somewhere.””Nothing goes up in a straight line, and Bitcoin is going to be volatile, but this makes it a viable asset class in my opinion and something that should be traded, or a small part of your portfolio for diversification.”GEOFF KENDRICK, HEAD OF DIGITAL ASSETS RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED”ETF inflows are now net USD7.5bn and open interest on exchanges (when you add futures and options together) have surpassed the previous 2021 highs.””I continue to think this is a one-off re-rating akin to what happened with gold after the gold ETFs were introduced in 2004. As a result I stick to my end 2025 $200k forecast.””US pension money is likely main driver of ETFs and retail money of exchange open interest.”STUART COLE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EQUITI CAPITAL, LONDON“Bitcoin – and indeed other crypto currencies are also performing better as well – are now seen as more legitimate investment destinations following the approval by US regulators of their inclusion in ETFs. So, they are now being used as an alternative to using gold when markets are looking to hedging against increased risks, higher interest rates etc. So no surprise I think that, when you see the gold price rallying, cryptos are doing the same.”NATHAN MCCAULEY, CEO AND CO-FOUNDER, ANCHORAGE DIGITAL, SAN FRANCISCO, CA“The Bitcoin all-time high marks a turning point for crypto. Traditional institutions were once sitting out; today, they are here in full force as the principal drivers of the crypto bull market. “If you want to know why institutions are here for the long term, just look at the underlying economics. Between the new ETFs and upcoming halving, demand for Bitcoin is rising while supply is diminishing.””The industry used the bear market to build a more mature market structure, bringing traditional investment vehicles—like SEC-regulated ETFs—to crypto.””Now, we are seeing exactly what happens when the market has safe, secure, and compliant access to the asset class—and institutions are just getting started.”ANTONI TRENCHEV, CO-FOUNDER, NEXO, ZUG, SWITZERLAND “Bitcoin recapturing its old high of $69,000 inspires a new set of superlatives for the oldest cryptocurrency that continues to divide opinion and conquer all comers with its returns.”Bitcoin has been propelled past its 2021 high by a bunch of ETFs that are squeezing supply and that means its trajectory looks set to continue towards $100,000 and beyond.”ALVIN TAN, HEAD OF ASIA FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE“One part of (bitcoin’s rally) has to do with the generally positive sentiment on risk in general. You can see that in the all-time high in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The other part of it is definitely the institutionalization of interest in bitcoin through the ETFs that have been launched.”“Finally I think after quite a volatile two year period where there were a lot of scandals about crypto exchanges and crypto personalities, we haven’t had any of that for a few months, so we’re maybe seeing the dust settling on that.”“I’m not quite sure how one would value bitcoin, but certainly I think the rise in the last couple of months is quite extraordinary. I don’t really know if it’s going to continue at this speed.” More
