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    Is the Labor Market About to Crack? It’s the Key Question for the Fed.

    Central bankers are paying more attention to the strength of the job market as inflation cools. But it’s a tough time to gauge its resilience.David Gurley Jr.’s bank account benefited from a hot pandemic labor market. Mr. Gurley, a video game programmer, switched jobs twice in quick succession, boosting his salary and nabbing a fully remote position.By late last year, he was worried that a pullback in the tech industry could make his job precarious. But when it comes to the outlook now, “it seems like things are more or less OK,” Mr. Gurley, 35, said. Opportunities for rapid wage gains are not as widespread and some layoffs have happened, but he feels he could find a job if he needed one.Mr. Gurley’s experience — a rip-roaring labor market, then a wobbly one and now some semblance of normality — is the kind of postpandemic roller-coaster ride that many Americans have encountered. After breakneck hiring and wage growth in 2022 and 2023, conditions have moderated. Now economic officials are trying to figure out whether the labor market is settling into a new holding pattern or is poised to take a turn for the worse.The answer will be pivotal for the future of Federal Reserve policy.Central bankers spent 2022 and 2023 focused mainly on wrestling rapid inflation under control. They have left interest rates unchanged at 5.3 percent for more than a year now and are likely to keep them there at their meeting this week, making money expensive to borrow in a bid to restrain consumer demand and weigh down the overall economy.But now that inflation is returning to normal, officials are again concentrating keenly on their second major goal: maintaining a strong job market. They are trying to strike a careful balance in which they fully stamp out inflation without causing unemployment to spike in the process.The labor market still looks solid. Joblessness is low by historical standards, and claims for unemployment insurance have stabilized after moving up earlier this year. A fresh jobs report set for release Friday is expected to show that employers continued to hire in July, albeit at a slower pace.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s pitch to the crypto crowd lacks logic

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $29 per 3 monthsThe new FT Digital Edition: today’s FT, cover to cover on any device. This subscription does not include access to ft.com or the FT App.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Fed meeting, Microsoft earns, BP dividend – what’s moving markets

    The Federal Reserve starts its July policy meeting later in the session, and after a benign June inflation report, investors after looking for the policymakers to lay the groundwork for a September rate cut.The U.S. central bank concludes its latest meeting on Wednesday, and is widely expected to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, as it has done since last July.Investors are looking for signals about when and how many rate cuts may occur this year, and will therefore be intently following any policy guidance issued by the central bank, as well as the post-meeting press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.Fed officials have repeatedly stated that they are looking for more evidence that inflation is steadily returning to 2% before cutting rates, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated earlier this month that the central bank may not wait until inflation reaches this target before cutting rates.Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing in September, with a small chance of a reduction of 50 basis points, and have 66 basis points of easing priced in by Christmas.U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday as investors awaited the start of the latest Federal Reserve meeting as well as key corporate earnings. By 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT), the Dow futures contract was 60 points, or 0.1%, higher, S&P 500 futures climbed 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 35 points, or 0.2%.The Federal Reserve is set to start its two-day policy meeting later in the session, and investors will be looking for clues over the timing and number of rate cuts to expect this year.The main earnings release Tuesday will be from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) after the close, but there will also be results from the likes of Merck (NYSE:MRK), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) before the open, as well as Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) post closing bell.So far, more than 40% of the S&P 500 companies have reported their results with 79% posting earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, according to LSEG. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) releases its quarterly results after the close Tuesday – the first of a series of numbers from the tech giants this week, including Facebook-parent Meta (NASDAQ:META) on Wednesday and then both Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) on Thursday.Investors will be looking to see if sales in Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing business have picked up enough to justify the billions of dollars being spent on artificial intelligence infrastructure.The software behemoth is expected to report that Azure’s growth stayed steady quarter-over-quarter at about 31% between April and June, according to data from Visible Alpha, helped by its tie-up with ChatGPT maker OpenAI.Microsoft’s capital spending likely surged about 53% year-over-year to $13.64 billion in the period, according to 16 analysts polled by LSEG. A big step up from the $10.95 billion in expenditure it recorded in the previous quarter.Shares of Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) fell sharply last week after the company reported a quarterly capital spending that exceeded estimates by nearly $1 billion, while the revenue boost from AI integrations remained modest, sparking a selloff in major tech companies.BP (LON:BP) released impressive second-quarter results earlier Tuesday, resulting in the energy giant raising its dividend after beating profit forecasts.BP reported an underlying profit of $2.76 billion for the second quarter of the financial year, up from $2.59 billion in the same quarter in 2023, and slightly higher than the $2.72 billion it earned in the first three months of the year.The oil major generated substantial cash flow of $8.1 billion, enabling it to lower net debt to $22.6 billion as well as raising its dividend by 10% and announcing another share buyback, worth $1.75 billion, for the last quarter. “Our decision to increase our dividend by 10%, and extend our buyback program commitment to 4Q 2024, reflects the confidence we have in our performance and outlook for cash generation,” said CFO Kate Thomson.“We are maintaining a disciplined financial frame and remain committed to growing value and returns for BP.”At 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT), BP shares rose 2.5% to £4.65, trading largely flat year-to-date.  Crude prices steadied Tuesday, traded near two-month lows on continuing concerns about demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer, while traders shrugged off the risk of conflict escalating in the Middle East.By 04:00 ET, the U.S. crude futures (WTI) climbed 0.1% to $75.88 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 0.1% to $79.09 a barrel.Traders were seen pricing out a risk premium from crude after media reports said Israeli officials were not seeking all-out war with Lebanon in their retaliation for a rocket strike that killed 12 in Israel-occupied Golan Heights.Crude prices are trading near two-month lows amid persistent concerns over slowing demand, especially in top importer China after last week’s weak growth data.That said, the Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, pledged at the end of its July meeting to pursue a “proactive” fiscal policy, suggesting more stimulus ahead.The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets later in the week to discuss output levels, although recent weakness in crude is likely to see the cartel downplay any plans for scaling back production cuts.   More

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    What to do about the central bank diary clash

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    The Fed’s dilemma on Trump

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Singapore’s Temasek plans to invest up to $30 billion in US over next five years

    “It’s an incredibly deep and broad capital market in the U.S.,” Jane Atherton, Temasek’s head of North America, told Reuters. “The U.S. is really at the forefront of everything that’s happening from the AI perspective.”The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter and continues to outperform its global peers. Despite recent turbulence, the S&P 500 is up 14.5% this year in a rally driven in part by excitement over artificial intelligence. In contrast, China reported weaker-than-expected growth earlier this month and surprised markets by cutting major short- and long-term interest rates last week in a bid to boost its economy. About 22% of Temasek’s investments are in the Americas, or $63 billion, and 19% in China. Its exposure to the Americas surpassed China in the last financial year for the first time in a decade.In the U.S., Temasek is particularly interested in areas related to artificial intelligence, such as data centers, semiconductors and battery storage, Atherton said. Temasek said earlier this month that profits from investments in the U.S. and India were helping cushion underperformance in China. Temasek also said it is taking a cautious approach to China amid trade tensions.”Geopolitics always plays a role,” Atherton said, while noting that China has underperformed the rest of the world and particularly the U.S. over the past three years.Temasek manages a $288 billion portfolio focused on long-term investments with themes such as digitization and sustainability.Atherton said most of the future performance of U.S. stocks will rely on earnings, especially for the tech megacap sector. “You’ve seen some multiple expansion, but that’s been driven by higher growth, and in theory it’ll pay for it,” she said.Temasek is also looking for investments in both public and private markets, as more private equity firms seek to divest. More

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    IMF approves release of $820 million for Egypt, calls for more reforms

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund said on Monday it had completed a review allowing Egypt to draw $820 million, saying efforts to restore macroeconomic stability had started to yield results but urging more progress on reining in state-owned enterprises.The review is the third under Egypt’s latest 46-month IMF loan programme, which was approved in 2022 and expanded to $8 billion this year following an economic crisis marked by high inflation and severe foreign currency shortages.Egypt says it has shifted to a flexible exchange rate regime, a policy the IMF said on Monday remains “a cornerstone of the authorities’ program.””Inflationary pressures are gradually abating, foreign exchange shortages have been eliminated, and fiscal targets (including related to spending by large infrastructure projects) were met,” an IMF statement said.”While there has been progress on some critical structural reforms, greater efforts are needed to implement the State Ownership Policy (SOP),” it added. The Fund called on Egypt to accelerate a programme of divestment of state-owned enterprises and carry out reforms to prevent them from using unfair competitive practices. It also said Egypt, where falling natural gas production has contributed to daily power cuts since last year, needed to contain fiscal risks from the energy sector. “Restoring energy prices to their cost recovery levels, including retail fuel prices by December 2025, is essential to supporting the smooth provision of energy to the population and reducing imbalances in the sector,” the IMF quoted its Deputy Managing Director Antoinette M. Sayeh as saying.Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by up to 15% ahead of the IMF review, which had been postponed from July 10. More