Economy

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.Asian markets move up a gear on Thursday as the region’s economic calendar fills up, with the general mood likely to be one of optimism following the rebound in most asset classes the previous day. China is still closed but markets in Hong Kong and most of Asia are up and running after the Lunar New Year break, and the local highlights on Thursday will include fourth quarter GDP figures from Japan, Australian unemployment and an interest rate decision from the Philippines.That is set against a day of recovery across most major markets on Wednesday, following the previous day’s choppy moves sparked by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation figures. The dollar, U.S. bond yields and implied volatility all eased; Wall Street and global stocks recovered some ground; and investors drew a collective sigh of relief that January’s U.S. inflation print didn’t leave a more lasting mark. At least not immediately. It’s worth pointing out that U.S. inflation still fell, just not as much as most people had expected. A faster-than-expected fall in UK inflation on Wednesday might have helped calm some nerves too.In currency markets, the yen will take center stage again on Thursday after its fall through 150.00 per dollar this week. Warnings on Wednesday from Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Suzuki that rapid FX moves are “undesirable” appear to have helped stall its decline for now.Japanese GDP data on Thursday could move the dial on Bank of Japan policy expectations, and therefore the yen. The consensus is for the economy to make a modest return to expansion after contracting in July-September, although analysts warn that private consumption remains fragile. Elsewhere in FX, China’s offshore yuan briefly hit a three-month low on Wednesday before recovering. It will be worth watching the onshore yuan when markets re-open on Monday.The Philippine central bank on Thursday is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% as inflation remains within the bank’s 2% to 4% target range, and not cut it until the third quarter of 2024.The peso was one of the few Asian currencies to weaken against the dollar on Wednesday. While the consensus is for rate cuts to begin in the second half of the year, a strong minority of economists in the Reuters poll, nine of 21, expect the first move before the end of June.Crypto enthusiasts in Asia wake up to the news that bitcoin’s market cap surpassed $1 trillion on Wednesday for the first time since November 2021, lifted by inflows to U.S. spot bitcoin exchange traded funds. Bitcoin rose as much as 5% on the day to just above $52,000, its latest 25-month high and enough to push the token’s market cap to $1.017 trillion according to price platform CoinGecko.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- Japan GDP (Q4)- Philippines central bank rate decision- Australia unemployment (January) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao) More

NEW YORK (Reuters) – It is a long flight to Sydney from Silicon Valley. But tech veteran Sukhinder Singh Cassidy – the former president of StubHub who also held key positions at Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)’s Google and at Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) – finds it best to hit the ground running when she travels Down Under for her current job as CEO of the accounting software firm Xero. Cassidy offers the following tips to get the most out of Aussie-style business travel. Following are highlights from her interview with Reuters last month, which has been edited and condensed.WHERE TO GO FIRST AFTER YOU LAND? I drop my luggage at the hotel and go straight to our Sydney office (Central Business District, by Wynyard Park). It’s my jet lag hack. I always fly overnight from the U.S., land in the morning and go straight to work. No naps. Our office in Sydney is a great place to spend the first day: It has panoramic views of Sydney Harbour, the Harbour Bridge and the city, with tons of sunlight to help your body get into a new rhythm.WHERE TO STAYUsually the Sydney Hilton (George Street), as it’s close to everything. The Hilton is just across from the Queen Victoria Building, one of Sydney’s most charming Victorian buildings filled with boutiques. It is a five-minute walk from David Jones (Elizabeth Street), which is one of the best department stores in the world for fashion, food, beauty and more. Both are open late, which means I can usually squeeze in a quick visit after a day at the office. BEST (NYSE:BEST) PLACE FOR TEAM MEETINGSLast year we hosted our global leadership team offsite at the Coogee Bay Hotel (Coogee Bay Rd.), which is right on the beach. We all loved the beautiful setting, but it was a great environment for focused planning and team-building, whether a team scavenger hunt or one-on-one walking meetings held during the breaks.POWER BREAKFAST SPOTThe Cut Lunch Deli (Clovelly Rd.) in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs. They have a simple menu done well. Think classic Australian breakfast with a twist – Vegemite and miso toasties, “avo” (avocado) toast with chili oil.THE GREAT OUTDOORS – WITH COLLEAGUES One of the best places would be the Blue Mountains (50 km west of the city). About 90 minutes out of Sydney is Australia’s own Grand Canyon, with too many amazing hikes and rock formations to count. My favorite is Wentworth Falls walking track. Park your team at the local favorite Lilianfels Blue Mountains Resort & Spa (Lilianfels Ave., Katoomba) that literally overlooks a massive canyon and has ample room for groups.TOURIST TRAP THAT IS ACTUALLY WORTH ITThe Taronga Zoo (Bradleys Head Rd., Mosman), across the water from the Sydney Harbour Bridge. It’s a tiered outdoor zoo built into a hillside that starts at the top of the hill and descends down. Who doesn’t want to see kangaroos, koalas and more?IDEAL COFFEE SPOT Xero customer Stitch Coffee (George St.) in the Queen Victoria Building is a personal favorite. It’s very casual, so I usually get mine to-go on my way into the office.WHERE TO SHOP When I have a bit more time, I’ll head directly to Double Bay, one of Sydney’s many beautiful harbourside suburbs and full of small boutiques.I’m a huge fan of Jan Logan for jewelry and Edward Meller for shoes I can’t live without (both on Knox St.)SOMETHING ONLY INSIDERS KNOWThe best walks. A lot of people know about the Bondi to Bronte walk, which is fantastic with lovely views, but it’s often crowded. My favorite walk takes you from farther north – Balmoral Beach to Taronga Zoo, along the coastline all the way. You’ll have great harbour views and tiny hidden beaches mostly to yourself.CAN’T-MISS TREATSI have a very sweet tooth. Go to any Aussie bakery and ask for a caramel slice – you won’t regret it. Think a thick, cakey base at the bottom, a rich layer of caramel in between and then a thin layer of chocolate on top. A small square packs a lot of punch.DINNER SPLURGEI’m Sikh and vegetarian. My favorite under-the-radar place is the Grand Palace (George St.). In a basement location about a five-minute walk from Circular Quay, you’ll find authentic ambiance and authentic Indian fine dining.FAVORITE SOUVENIR Tim Tams! Hit any airport shop, and you’re likely to be able to load up on exotic flavors of Tim Tams – from white chocolate, to caramel or chocolate mint that you can’t get stateside. Nothing makes my kids happier. More

The real estate investment trust (REIT), however, said growth in its senior housing portfolio in 2024 will likely be partially offset by higher interest expenses and forecast full-year normalized FFO below expectations.The Chicago-based company said it expects 2024 normalized FFO in the range of $3.07 to $3.18 per share, compared to analysts’ average estimates of $3.21 per share, according to LSEG data.Shares of the company were down 2.6% in after-the-bell trading.There has been a growing demand for senior housing due to an ageing U.S. population. Still, new facilities have been slow to come up in a high-interest rate environment and an uncertain macroeconomic situation.Between 2009 and 2019, the number of people in the U.S. aged 65 and over increased by 14.4 million or 36%, outpacing the 3% increase for the under-65 population, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.Elevated interest rates make borrowing expensive for the company, which owns senior housing and healthcare properties across the United States and the United Kingdom. The company’s normalized fourth-quarter funds from operations were 76 cents per share, above 73 cents a year ago. Same-store net operating income from its senior housing rose 15% in the quarter. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Hotter-than-expected inflation in January shows that the United States’ path back to 2% inflation “may be a bumpy one,” Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said on Wednesday, adding it was too early to be assured price stability will be restored without a significant blow to jobs or economic growth.”It’s very early to say whether we end up with a soft landing or not,” Barr said, referring to the Fed’s hoped-for outcome where inflation returns to the Fed’s target without a large rise in the unemployment rate.”I’d be very careful about where we are in that process,” with the Fed facing a “difficult” decision on how long to maintain the target rate of interest at the current 5.25% to 5.5% range, Barr said at a National Association for Business Economics conference.The Fed is “confident we are on a path to 2% inflation,” Barr said in a prepared speech at the event. But a recent report showing prices rose faster than anticipated in January, “is a reminder that the path back to 2% inflation may be a bumpy one.”Consumer prices rose at a yearly 3.1% rate in January, with an underlying measure of core inflation measuring 3.9%, the same as the month before, with rising shelter prices driving the increase.”We need to see continued good data before we can begin the process of reducing the federal funds rate,” Barr said, adding he backed the “careful approach” to cutting rates advocated by Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers.The Fed held rates steady at its last meeting in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, with rate cuts expected to begin some time after an upcoming meeting in March.But Fed officials have said that will depend on upcoming data confirming that inflation continues to decline, and does not either begin to accelerate or get stalled at a level above the central bank’s target. “It is a difficult set of judgments to make in the current context because there are no clear historical parallels,” given the current situation’s roots in the coronavirus pandemic, he said.Barr, who oversees the Fed’s supervision and regulation of banks, downplayed some current concerns. He argued that while certain commercial office buildings may drop in value and pose problems for the banks with loans on those buildings, the issue would play out over time and would not pose an “acute” problem for the financial sector.Referring to the failure nearly a year ago of Silicon Valley Bank, and the fears of a broader credit crunch that followed it, Barr said the financial system was “in much better shape than it was last spring.”Citing similar concerns around recent troubles at the New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB), Barr said, “a single bank missing its revenue expectations and increasing its provisioning does not change the fact that the overall banking system is strong.””We see no signs of liquidity problems across the system,” Barr said.Regarding the Fed’s balance sheet, Barr said the Fed was monitoring markets carefully as it continues to draw down its asset holdings, to be sure that banks can continue to easily access reserves.Detailed talks about the future of the balance sheet would commence “soon,” Barr said. More

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Hunt is looking at “further spending restraint” after 2025, if official forecasts suggest he does not have enough fiscal headroom to pay for “smart tax cuts,” the report said, citing treasury insiders. The minister’s plans for a 1 percentage-point increase in public spending until 2029 are a “fiction,” economists have warned, as they would imply serious real-term cuts to some stretched public services, according to the newspaper.Treasury officials were considering going further and reducing projected spending rises to about 0.75 percentage point a year, releasing 5 billion pounds ($6.28 billion) to 6 billon pounds for budget tax cuts, FT said, citing people close to Hunt.”It doesn’t look like the chancellor will have as much space for tax cuts compared to last autumn, so senior folk internally are starting to look at further spending restraint and productivity gains in the future if the numbers move against us again,” the newspaper quoted a Treasury insider as saying.”It is a tough call, but it isn’t clear whether there will be easier alternatives,” the report said.Hunt had said in January that he did not expect the government to have the same kind of capacity to cut taxes during the budget in March as it did during the last budget update in November.($1 = 0.7961 pound) More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden wants an 18% cut in the number of F-35 jets the Pentagon buys next year after Congress’ cap on the size of the upcoming defense budget compelled the administration to find savings, two sources familiar with the situation said.The Pentagon order for Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)’s stealthy fighter will drop to below 70, down from an expected order of 83, for an estimated $1.6 billion drop in spending on jets.The drop in F-35 orders could impact the big defense contractor, which earns about a quarter of its revenue from the jet program. International demand for the jets, which cost somewhere between $80 million to about $120 million each depending on the type, remains strong.Lockheed shares fell 2.6% after the news, which was first reported by Reuters.Lockheed said in a statement they “look forward to working with the Biden administration and Congress” on the 2025 fiscal year budget in the months ahead.Biden’s overall defense and national security budget request is expected to be $895 billion, the sources said, compelling deep cuts in a wide range of programs, delays to existing programs and slowing efforts to build weapons stocks depleted by wars in Ukraine and Israel.Budget negotiations between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the White House’s Office of Management and Budget have largely concluded, but the final amount could change before the budget request is expected to be unveiled on March 11, the sources added. The Pentagon’s comptroller declined to comment, and the Joint Program office, which runs the F-35 program, also declined to comment. Last year, the Pentagon projected it would buy 83 of the stealthy F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin for $9.8 billion.BUDGET CAPPED Last spring, the Pentagon estimated it would need about $880 billion in 2025 and a total national defense budget of $929 billion. But the two-year budget deal struck in mid-2023 capped the 2025 defense budget at 1% above the $886 billion 2024 budget. As a result, Biden’s total 2025 national security budget will be $895 billion.The Pentagon’s share of the national defense budget is expected to be $850 billion, according to an industry executive and a former defense official briefed on the matter. The $30 billion reduction will hit other programs as well. For example, a portion of the $2 billion earmarked for missile defenses for Guam – viewed as important to deter China in the Pacific – is also among the suggested cuts. Other programs that could be reduced include upgrades to the homeland missile defense system in Alaska known as Ground Based Interceptors and RTX Corp-made SM3-1B missiles for Aegis ships. Delayed programs include slowing orders for an aircraft carrier made by Huntington Ingalls (NYSE:HII) Industries Inc and Virginia-class submarines made by Huntington and General Dynamics Corp (NYSE:GD), according to two congressional staffers. The Pentagon was expected to also trim costs by retiring older weaponry like ships and planes that are more expensive to operate. The cuts are not final given they will likely spark debate on Capitol Hill that could lead to an increase in the national defense budget to over $900 billion for fiscal 2025, budget watchers say. Defense spending accounts for about half of the U.S. discretionary budget, the other going transportation, education, diplomacy and other departments. Entitlements like Social Security, the national retirement fund, constitute the non-discretionary portion of the budget. The 2024 budget, which includes $886 billion for national security, still has not passed Congress. The U.S. government is working under a continuing resolution – which caps spending at 2023 levels until a 2024 budget is passed. The current continuing resolution that is keeping the government open expires on March 1. More

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said this was called for under a 2018 congressional mandate, which called for adjustments for inflation every five years.So-called qualifying venture capital funds are excluded from the definition of “investment company” under the Investment Company Act of 1940, according to the SEC.The new rule would raise the threshold to $12 million in aggregate capital contributions and uncommitted capital from the current $10 million based on the Commerce Department’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and create a process future inflation adjustments, the agency said in a statement.The proposal is subject to a period of public comment and could be modified prior to any vote on whether to adopt it. More