Economy

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Do you like your colleagues? Or is there perhaps someone who sets your teeth on edge? If so, you are in for a tough spell. The chances of anyone in your immediate vicinity changing jobs have plummeted. That, at least, is what recent trading at Hays, PageGroup and Robert Walters suggest. The UK and US look particularly weak. PageGroup’s UK fee income fell by a fifth; in the US, it was down almost a quarter. Hays reported a similar trend, worsening into December. The slowdown has affected the market for permanent jobs, more than that for temps. Such gloomy results look hard to square with a resilient jobs market. UK unemployment was 4.2 per cent in the second and third quarters. US December employment data was surprisingly strong. Yet recruiters only spend a sliver of their time filling newly created jobs. The bread and butter is so-called job churn, the merry-go-round created by companies and candidates seeking that elusive perfect match. There was a lot of that post-Covid, as people reconsidered their life goals. It has now come to a screeching halt.Companies are posting fewer job offers, as confirmed by the Recruitment and Employment Confederations’ labour market tracker. Roles that do come up take ages to fill. Anecdotally, employers are only offering 5 to 10 per cent more than a candidate’s current salary, down from as high as 20 to 30 in 2022. Smaller rises make candidates more reluctant to take the leap, and counter-offers from their current employer are more likely to succeed.The slowdown appears to be particularly acute in highly paid non-technical jobs, such as senior employees in HR, legal and finance. Such people are the labour market equivalent of big ticket discretionary buys, perhaps less crucial to the day-to-day running of organisations than they might hope. You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.Clearly, macro headwinds have made potential employers more cautious about taking on new employees, although not yet so cautious that they are taking an axe to headcount. Some of the slowdown is cyclical, too. Companies will be bedding down their recent spate of expensive hires, and soothing existing workers who may now be feeling relatively underpaid. A deep chill on job moves is clearly bad news for potential candidates, forced to hunker down and hope for better days. Yet longer term, demographics are on their side. Shrinking workforces and the need for new skills point to a long-term bull market in talent. That is helpful for the (qualified) jobseeker and the recruitment companies trying to reel them in. Lex is the FT’s flagship daily investment column. Sign up for our popular newsletter for premium subscribers here More

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Across the dozens of economic indicators released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics this week, few demonstrated the difficulty of pinning down the state of the world’s second-biggest economy better than the steel data.Just months ago, steel output — previously subject to an informal cap as Beijing sought to curb emissions and production — was on course to expand significantly in 2023 for the first time in two years.But — in line with an official desire to reduce output — December production fell 15 per cent year-on-year to its weakest level since 2017, a rate of decline that meant total annual output edged up, but remained essentially flat at just over 1bn tons.“It is fair to say that we don’t believe these numbers,” said Colin Hamilton, a London-based analyst at BMO Capital Markets, of China’s December steel and pig iron data. Even before their release, Hamilton had said “data quality issues” were “raising their head again in China” and pointed to potential “strategic under-reporting to meet official targets”.He added that the fall “did not tie in with anything else” and that coke production, which goes into the steel industry, was only marginally down year on year in December. “We have seen year-end discrepancies before, but never to this extent”.The steel figures, announced alongside a 5.2 per cent gross domestic product growth reading for 2023 that narrowly beat Beijing’s official target, are just one example of the intense global scrutiny that greets data releases from the world’s second-largest economy.Steel is cast at a factory in Hangzhou, in China’s eastern Zhejiang province More

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea threaten to create a ‘‘chaotic” period for Europe’s manufacturers and retailers as supply chains are disrupted, logistics experts have warned.Nearly all container ships have been rerouted away from the Suez Canal towards the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope since Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi militants last month stepped up attacks on vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea.The shift mainly affects sailings between Asia and Europe, adding up to two weeks to the normal 35-day trip and creating long gaps between the arrivals of vessels in European ports. Simon Heaney, senior manager in container research at London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants, said there was “definitely pain” for shipping companies’ customers as a result.“In this interim period, it looks a little chaotic,” he said, although he expected shipping lines to establish a “new, more reliable network” in “fairly short order”.Container lines, which handle movements of manufactured goods and components, mostly offer one service a week on their most popular routes.Delayed arrivals of components have brought some car manufacturers’ production lines to a halt. If the disruption endures, retailers’ inventories will probably be depleted because of the delays, and companies shipping goods face surcharges as shipping lines try to recoup the costs of diversions.Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Jeep and Peugeot owner Stellantis, said he expected the delays to push up shipping costs further for carmakers.“I’m sure the logistics companies will be using the fact we are using [the ships] for a longer time to negotiate the cost,” he said.Nils Haupt, spokesperson for Hamburg-based shipping line Hapag-Lloyd, said there could also be congestion at European ports as vessels arrived outside scheduled times.“This week, we had eight ships of Hapag-Lloyd at Hamburg, which is a lot,” Haupt said. Some ships are still travelling through the Suez Canal. Beijing has been neutral on the Houthi attacks but the disruption has raised freight rates, impacting Chinese companies, according to analysts. With Europe being a leading trading partner, the route is important to China, which this week called for “all relevant parties” to “ensure the safety of navigation in the Red Sea”. France’s CMA CGM, the world’s third-biggest container shipping group, said it had rerouted ships around Africa, although some were still being sent through the canal when they could get French warship escorts. Rodolphe Saadé, owner and chair of the Marseille-based company, said the CMA CGM’s schedules were being hit because of rerouting, delays waiting for Red Sea passage and build-ups at ports. “It’s causing a lot of difficulties,” Saadé told the Financial Times, adding that the group was trying to help companies plan with constant updates on arrival times.“You have windows when you’re supposed to arrive [at a port] . . . but now our schedules are in complete disarray and we’re not able to keep to timings,” he said.Some carmakers relying on rerouted vessels for components have felt the impact, with Tesla in Germany, Volvo Cars in Belgium and Suzuki in Hungary halting certain vehicle production lines.Houthi supporters take part in a protest against the US terrorist designation of the Houthis, in Sana’a, Yemen. The shift in shipping routes has been prompted by strikes by the Iranian-backed group on vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea More

The bank’s NII for the quarter stood at Rs 4,287 crore (1 Rs = $0.012), showcasing significant year-over-year growth. Alongside this, customer deposits have experienced a considerable surge of nearly forty-three percent, culminating in Rs 176,481 crore. This growth in deposits reflects the bank’s strengthening relationship with its customers and its ability to attract new ones.Further demonstrating the bank’s positive trajectory is the improvement in asset quality. IDFC FIRST Bank has successfully reduced its gross non-performing assets (GNPA) and net non-performing assets (NNPA), signaling enhanced financial health and risk management.Despite these gains, the bank has also reported an increase in operating expenses, which have climbed to Rs 4,241 crore. Additionally, provisions have risen to Rs 655 crore. These figures suggest that the bank is proactively managing its expenses and setting aside funds to cover potential losses, ensuring a stable financial footing as it moves forward.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

(Reuters) – Winter storms and biting cold that have gripped much of the United States in recent days with deadly consequences are expected to persist through this weekend, the National Weather Service (NWS) reported on Saturday.Even as frigid temperatures were forecast across two-thirds of the country for the days ahead, along with snow, freezing rain and heavy showers, CBS News said it has tallied 83 confirmed weather-related U.S. fatalities over the past week.Tennessee accounted for 19 lost lives attributed to severe weather, and Oregon 16 more, CBS reported, including three people who died of apparent electrocution from a power line that fell onto the vehicle they were riding in on Wednesday. The remainder of the fatalities were reported across at least eight other states, including Illinois, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Washington, Kentucky, New York and New Jersey, according to CBS.The Pacific Northwest and parts of the South have borne the brunt of extreme winter weather during the past week, as homes and businesses consumed record amounts of natural gas for heating and power generation due to severe cold. That pattern was continuing through the weekend with hard-freeze warnings posted on Saturday across a large swath of the Gulf Region, extending from eastern Texas and Louisiana through much of Mississippi, Alabama and parts of Florida and Georgia. Wind-chill factors as low as zero-degrees Fahrenheit were forecast in Mississippi for Saturday night. The NWS said a new cold air mass building over the nation’s midsection would send temperatures plunging 20 to 30 degrees below average from the High Plains east into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Monday evening. Snow was forecast downwind of the Great Lakes and over parts of the central Appalachians and the Northeast through Sunday evening.Meanwhile, winter weather advisories were in effect for much of the Pacific Northwest, expected to be hit with another round freezing rain and showers. Snow was expected in the Sierra Nevada mountains, with heavy rains and a chance of flash flooding predicted for the lower elevations of northern California. Downpours could extend into Southern California on Monday, the NWS said. More

The housing market is set to witness growth against this backdrop of falling mortgage rates. Home sales are projected to reach nearly 5 million annually, while housing starts are anticipated to climb to over 1.3 million. Furthermore, home prices are expected to see a moderate uptick, with the home price index forecasted to rise by over 3% throughout this year.These developments suggest a potential easing of the challenges faced by the housing market, which could bolster homebuyer confidence and stimulate home sales and construction activity. With mortgage rates retreating from their recent highs, the housing sector may be poised for a more robust performance in the coming months.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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