Economy

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Peronism is dead. Long live the Peronists. Argentina’s main political force for decades, the ruling Peronists only months ago looked down and out. Voters seemed ready to abandon them as inflation soared over 100%, the peso currency plunged and poverty spread.Now the movement – which dates back to the 1940s, when it was founded by former President Juan Peron and his wife “Evita” – looks like it may yet again rise phoenix-like from the ashes of crisis. It has a new front-man, Sergio Massa, who is in a tight race to win Sunday’s presidential election run-off with anti-establishment outsider Javier Milei.But in order to secure that win the Peronist movement is being forced to reinvent itself, with a shift towards the center from the leftist bloc of divisive ex-president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.Kirchner, a close ally of regional socialists from Bolivia to Cuba, handpicked current President Alberto Fernandez four years ago and ran as his vice president, though the two have since clashed as both have seen their popularity decline.Economy Minister Massa, a wheeler-dealer with connections across the political divide, is meanwhile pledging a unity government and has looked to win over moderate conservatives.”If Massa wins, he will build a different leadership. There will be disagreements, but he will maintain the unity of the coalition,” Argentine Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero, a Fernandez ally, told Reuters.”Sergio’s strength was to get the politics in order. For a unity list he was the best candidate, because he’s not from any side and he resolved the internal tensions.”Massa, 51, a lawyer with a wide network of business, union and diplomatic contacts, has looked to distance himself from both Fernandez and Kirchner during the campaign. He says he is offering change from within – although he has regularly dipped into the familiar Peronist play-book of tax cuts and attack-dog politics.His rival Milei, a right-wing radical who has ridden on a wave of voter anger at the country’s economic crisis, often tries to tag Massa as “Kirchnerista”, though a new term “Massismo” has grown up around him.Kirchner, who ran the country from 2007 to 2015, remains popular with a significant hardcore base, but has taken a back seat in the election build-up and is under the cloud of a corruption sentence handed down last year.”The face of Peronism will undoubtedly change if it wins the election. It will readjust to the context as it always did,” said 24-year-old Ignacio Avalos in Buenos Aires.PERONISM: LEFT OR RIGHT?Since its founding, the Peronist movement has been nebulous and changing. While it leans to the left, it has included ideologies from the right also. Its defining feature is a focus on social justice.”Everywhere has a right and a left. But here there is Peronism,” said Julia Saggini in Buenos Aires, a 32-year-old actress, defining it as “a movement giving rights to those who did not have them”.This ability to be all things to all people has helped Peronism survive over the decades. But it has also created internal tensions and power struggles, the latest being that between the left and center.The left-wing had backed a presidential candidate allied to Kirchner, but eventually lost out to Massa, who favors close ties with the United States and more fiscal discipline.”If Massa wins, he will have to betray CFK (Kirchner): in Peronism there is no room for two commanders,” said political analyst Andres Malamud.A source from the ‘Kirchnerista’ faction said the leftist bloc would stick to its principles but for now had got behind Massa.”We do not have the same position on all issues, but we do agree on the general guidelines and we have a permanent dialogue with ‘Massismo’ that allows us to make progress,” added the source, asking not to be named.Such unity would not likely withstand a Massa loss to Milei, however.”If we lose there’s going to be a real debate within Peronism,” said another source from the ruling coalition, asking not to be named. “I am quite pessimistic unity will be maintained if we lose.” More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve’s top Wall Street cop Michael Barr and other bank regulators will defend plans to hike U.S. bank capital requirements when they appear before Congress this week as they come under increasing pressure from many lawmakers to rein in their efforts. Barr, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Martin Gruenberg and acting Comptroller of the Currency Mike Hsu will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT) and the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT).It will be the officials’ first appearance on Capitol Hill since proposing the “Basel III Endgame” rules in July, and will offer insight into where the Democrat-led committee stands on the issue. The proposal would overhaul how banks gauge risk and, in turn, how much capital they must hold against potential losses. Regulators say stronger cash cushions will make the financial system safer and are especially crucial after three banks failed earlier this year. But lenders have attacked the proposal, saying it will hurt lending and the broader U.S. economy.”Neither banks nor supervisors can anticipate all emerging risks. That is why it is also important to help ensure that our regulatory framework sets a strong baseline for resilience,” Barr will tell lawmakers, according to prepared testimony posted by the Senate Banking Committee on Monday. As part of their campaign to kill the Basel proposal, banks have been lobbying lawmakers to put pressure on the regulators. On Monday, 39 Senate Republicans stepped up the pressure, asking the regulators to scrap the proposal, citing economic harm.Analysts and lobbyists will be watching closely on Tuesday to ascertain where more moderate Democrats like Senators Mark Warner of Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana stand on the issue.”The most important voices during this hearing will be centrist Democrats, as their tone and tenor will impact both the comments from industry and the Fed’s response to those comments in a final rulemaking,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research for brokerage BTIG. Gruenberg may also be pressed on a Wall Street Journal report that said female employees had left the regulator due to its “toxic” culture and that misconduct was not punished.Gruenberg told staff in an internal video Monday that the FDIC does not tolerate harassment, and has hired an external firm to review its practices, according to the agency. Officials may also be queried about a ransomware attack on the U.S. arm of China’s biggest lender, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which disrupted trades in the $26 trillion U.S. Treasury market on Thursday. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a key test on Tuesday, as he tries to circumvent opposition by hardliners in his own Republican conference and rely on support from Democrats to pass his plan to avert a government shutdown this weekend.Johnson, who had little senior congressional leadership experience before being elected speaker less than three weeks ago, has decided to overcome a hardline roadblock to his two-step continuing resolution, or “CR,” by bringing the bill directly to the floor through a suspension of House rules. The change allows the speaker to bypass a procedural vote to open debate on the measure, which would keep government funding levels unchanged into early next year. The House is scheduled Tuesday to vote only on passage, which would require support from two-thirds of the chamber. More than 20 House Republican hardliners, who wanted the CR to include spending cuts and conservative policy riders such as tighter U.S.-Mexico border security, had been expected to block the debate and keep the bill from reaching the floor. More Republicans said they stood ready to oppose passage. With a slim 221-213 majority, the Republican speaker can afford to lose no more than three party votes on legislation that Democrats oppose. “This is the wrong approach,” said Representative Chip Roy, a prominent hardliner who had vowed to block debate.Other Republicans supported Johnson’s decision to go straight to the floor. “I think the greater problem comes with a shutdown,” said Representative Drew Ferguson. To avert a fourth shutdown in a decade, the Republican-controlled House and Democratic-led Senate must agree on a CR that President Joe Biden can sign into law before current funding for federal agencies expires on Friday. “Everybody is operating in good faith. We just ran out of time,” Johnson said in an interview on CNBC on Tuesday.But the strength of Democratic support for Johnson’s CR remained uncertain. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Congress’ top Democrat, gave only a tentative welcome to the proposal. “For now, I am pleased that Speaker Johnson seems to be moving in our direction by advancing a CR that does not include the highly partisan cuts that Democrats have warned against,” Schumer said.Congress is in its third fiscal standoff this year, following a months-long spring impasse over the more-than-$31 trillion in U.S. debt, which brought the federal government to the brink of default.The ongoing partisan gridlock, accentuated by fractures within the narrow House Republican majority, led Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) late on Friday to lower its credit rating outlook on the U.S. to “negative” from “stable,” as it noted that high interest rates would continue to drive borrowing costs higher. The nation’s deficit hit $1.695 trillion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30.The Senate on Monday paused its plan to move forward on its own CR to allow the House to move first, with Schumer saying “bipartisanship is the only way to avoid a government shutdown.” Johnson’s bill would extend funding for military construction, veterans benefits, transportation, housing, urban development, agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration and energy and water programs through Jan. 19. Funding for all other federal operations – including defense – would expire on Feb. 2. House Republicans will debate the measure behind closed doors on Tuesday morning, and the outcome could further determine the path ahead of Johnson’s CR – and potentially the speaker’s future.Johnson’s CR formula strongly parallels the short-term measure that triggered the ouster of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy used a clean CR to avert a shutdown on Oct 1. It passed with more support from Democrats than Republicans and McCarthy was voted out of his job a few days later. Republicans say the new speaker is unlikely to suffer the same fate as McCarthy. But hardliners have been quick to see the parallel. “Here we are. We’re doing the same thing,” Roy told reporters. Lawmakers are at odds over discretionary spending for fiscal 2024. Democrats and many Republicans want to stick to the $1.59 trillion that Biden and McCarthy set in their debt ceiling agreement earlier this year. Hardliners have pushed for a figure $120 billion lower. In recent days, they have signaled a net willingness to compromise.But the political fracas is focused on just a fraction of the total U.S. budget, which also includes mandatory outlays for Social Security and Medicare. Total U.S. spending topped $6.1 trillion in fiscal 2023. More

The country’s economy stagnated in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, preliminary data from national statistics bureau ISTAT showed last month.”Should the preliminary estimate for the third quarter be confirmed, the government’s growth target for this year could be subject to a moderate downwards correction,” Giorgetti said while addressing parliament over the 2024 budget.”At present, the impact on 2024 growth is negligible,” he added. More

The agreement emphasizes Kenya’s dedication to environmental preservation by aiming to expand its forest coverage from 7.2 million to 10.6 million hectares. The move aligns with the country’s broader strategy to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.This financial boost from the IMF arrives after Kenya’s ambitious endeavor to plant 150 million trees as part of the National Tree Planting Drive. The initiative is not only a testament to the nation’s commitment to greening efforts but also strategically positions Kenya in fulfilling its obligations under a multi-billion-shilling deal focused on combating climate change.In preparation for this momentous undertaking, Kenya declared November 23, 2023, as a national holiday dedicated to a nationwide tree planting effort. This declaration coincides with President Ruto’s strategic meeting with IMF officials at the State House. Three months earlier, Kenya proposed this deal to the IMF, highlighting the tree planting initiative as evidence of their commitment to environmental goals.Four months ago, the IMF had approved Kenya’s request for the substantial loan facility designated for climate change mitigation efforts. The endorsement of this agreement by the IMF is a nod to Kenya’s potential in reaching net-zero targets and possibly trading carbon credits on international markets.While these developments mark significant progress in environmental conservation and fiscal support, concerns have been raised by civil society groups regarding government spending. Linda Ugatuzi, a civil society group, has expressed worries about high government expenditure on such initiatives, estimating that the annual travel budget for related trips is KSh 96 billion.Kenya’s pledge to increase its forest cover is part of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are central to meeting global climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. The newly acquired IMF funding will play a crucial role in realizing these environmental objectives and enhancing Kenya’s green credentials on the global stage.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

Airfares to many popular destinations have recently fallen to their lowest levels in months, and even holiday travel is far cheaper than it was last year, providing some welcome relief to consumers who have been frustrated for months by high prices for all manner of goods and services.The glut of deals suggests that the airline industry’s supercharged pandemic recovery may finally be slowing as the supply of tickets catches up and, on some routes, overtakes demand, which appears relatively robust.Consider the fares that Denise Diorio, a retired teacher in Tampa, Fla., recently scored. She spent less than $40 on flights to and from Chicago and paid just $230 for a round-trip ticket from New York to Paris and back, a trip she plans to take this month.“I’ve been telling all my friends, ‘If you want to go somewhere, get your tickets now,’” she said.The bargains she found may be exceptional, but Ms. Diorio is right that deals abound.Early this month, the average price for a domestic flight around Thanksgiving was down about 9 percent from a year ago. And flights around Christmas were about 18 percent cheaper, according to Hopper, a booking and price-tracking app. Kayak, the travel search engine, looked at a wider range of dates around the holidays and found that domestic flight prices were down about 18 percent around Thanksgiving and 23 percent around Christmas.“In a lot of cases, we’re seeing some of the lowest fares that we’ve seen really since travel started coming back after the drop-off in 2020,” said Kyle Potter, executive editor of Thrifty Traveler, a travel blog and deal-watching service.Domestic ticket prices fell over the summer, Mr. Potter said, and deals on international travel, particularly to Europe, have become more common recently.Airlines lower their fares when they are trying to get more people to book tickets as demand is slowing or they are facing stiffer competition. There’s little question that competition has intensified on some routes, but travel experts say it’s not clear whether demand is waning.Thanksgiving this year is expected to set a record for air travel, with nearly 30 million passengers forecast, according to Airlines for America, an industry group. That would be about 9 percent more than last year and 6 percent more than in 2019, before the pandemic.But some airlines say demand is slowing outside of holiday and other peak travel periods. In addition, some airports have been so flooded with flights that carriers have been forced to cut fares to fill planes.That hadn’t been much of a problem for most of the recovery from the pandemic. Weather and other disruptions limited the supply of flights last year and in 2021, as did shortages of trained pilots, parts and planes, among other factors. That drove up ticket prices, kept planes full and helped airlines take in strong profits.Thanksgiving this year is expected to set a record for air travel, with nearly 30 million passengers anticipated.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times“The airline industry has never delivered the types of profit margins and return on capital that it has done over the last 2.5 years,” said John Grant, chief analyst with OAG, an aviation advisory and data firm. “We’re getting back to a more normal industry.”For the largest U.S. airlines, the good times have continued, fueled in particular by thriving demand for international travel. But smaller and low-fare carriers have started to suffer. Several reported disappointing financial results for the three months that ended in September. Executives at those airlines have said demand is weakening, fares are falling and costs remain high. They also say bad weather and a shortage of air traffic controllers have made flying more difficult.JetBlue Airways, for example, lost $153 million in the third quarter, compared with a $57 million profit in the same period last year. The company said recently that it was moving flights away from crowded markets, such as New York, to those where it expected stronger performance, such as the Caribbean. The budget carriers Spirit Airlines and Frontier Airlines recently told investors that they were looking to cut costs by tens of millions of dollars.Competition has been fierce in some important markets, driving down fares and profits.In Denver, where Frontier is based, about 14 percent more seats were available on flights this summer than in the summer of 2019, according to Cirium, an aviation data provider. Miami and Orlando, Fla., two popular destinations served by many budget carriers, saw even larger increases in capacity.But while airlines added flights in popular markets as they chased passengers, airports in other cities, including Los Angeles, a hub for several major airlines, had large declines in capacity from the summer of 2019.“You’ll find that there’s a large correlation between the airlines that are doing well and the ones that are struggling, margin-wise, when you compare where their concentrations are,” Barry Biffle, Frontier’s chief executive, said last month on a conference call to discuss the airline’s third-quarter results.When it comes to international routes, analysts are less certain of why fares are falling and whether they will remain low. The kinds of deals that Ms. Diorio got for her Paris trip could mean that larger airlines soon find themselves facing a financial squeeze or merely that the industry is returning to a prepandemic normal.“Historically, demand to Europe softens in the winter,” said Steve Hafner, Kayak’s chief executive. “So I think that reflects normal trends.”But demand for international travel could face challenges, partly because of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Analysts also warn that many consumers may be less willing or able to splurge on travel than they were in the last couple of years, when they had pandemic savings to draw from. Even if demand remains strong, airlines risk offering too many seats on popular overseas routes.Whatever the cause of the recent drop in fares, the deals are a welcome break to travelers from years of high prices, Mr. Potter said.“Either way the recipe is there for cheap flights,” he said. “If it’s just a little bit of overcapacity, that’s a win for consumers. If travel demand is dropping, in some ways that’s an even bigger win for people who are never going to give up on travel.” More

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