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    BoJ governor warns unwinding ultra-loose policy is ‘serious challenge’

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The Bank of Japan will proceed carefully with raising interest rates to avoid bond market volatility and any adverse impact on financial institutions, its governor has said, warning that unwinding the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy will be a “serious challenge”.Kazuo Ueda told the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference that the central bank was making progress towards hitting its 2 per cent inflation target but cautioned that it was still “too early” to determine the sequence of its policy normalisation.“When we normalise short-term interest rates, we will have to be careful about what will happen to financial institutions, what will happen to borrowers of money in general and what will happen to aggregate demand,” Ueda said. “It is going to be a serious challenge for us.”Since becoming the first academic to take the helm of the BoJ in April, Ueda has begun to gradually loosen the central bank’s tight grip on the bond market as it comes under pressure from a weakening yen, rising yields and persistent inflation.The BoJ is the only major central bank in the world to maintain negative interest rates. Its exit from decades of unprecedented easing measures could have major ramifications for international bond markets, as Japanese investors own trillions of dollars of overseas debt.The BoJ last month decided to allow yields on the 10-year Japanese government bond to rise above 1 per cent, a step towards ending its seven-year policy of capping long-term interest rates.Japan’s core inflation rate, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, retreated to 2.8 per cent in September after hitting a peak of 4.2 per cent in January, but has remained above the BoJ’s target for 18 months.Ueda said underlying inflation, stripping out temporary factors, remained below the BoJ’s target despite signs that wage-setting behaviour by Japanese companies was starting to change following the initial shock from rising global commodities prices.“We are making progress towards achieving this same goal, but there’s still some distance to cover before we can scrap the forward guidance,” Ueda said, referring to the BoJ’s commitment to continuing its quantitative and qualitative monetary easing until its inflation target can be sustainably achieved.“It’s quite uncertain how long this distance will be. It’s too early to determine what specifically we will be doing when we seriously normalise our policy stance.”Ueda said Japan’s banking system was robust enough to withstand some increase in short-term interest rates. But he also warned that the BoJ would need to monitor the situation carefully since financial institutions and the country as a whole had become accustomed to the ultra-low rates that had been in place for such a long period.“I think they have enough capital to weather some increase in interest rates. But it’s a matter of degree so we’ll have to be careful,” Ueda said.The governor also cited risks to the economic outlook in the US and China. “The economy of China is facing . . . many challenges in the midst of increasing geopolitical tensions,” he said. “There could be some more serious spillover of what’s happening in the property sector to the rest of the economy.” More

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    Tory MPs warn Jeremy Hunt against squeezing benefits to fund tax cuts

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Jeremy Hunt has been warned by senior Conservative MPs not to create space for tax cuts by announcing “perverse” real-terms reductions to the benefits paid to the poorest in society.The UK chancellor is under fierce pressure to use the Autumn Statement to lay the groundwork for later tax cuts and his allies have confirmed he is considering saving money by squeezing the benefits bill.But several influential Conservative MPs told the Financial Times that Hunt should not target the vulnerable for cuts during a cost of living crisis by failing to increase benefits in line with inflation.Sir Bob Neill, chair of the Commons justice committee, said such a decision would be “perverse”, adding: “It would be counter to the government’s own strategy to protect the weakest in society while we get the cost of living under control.”Sir Robert Buckland, former cabinet minister, said: “At a time when the cost of living continues to bite, then uprating benefits in line with inflation is both sensible and essential.”Working age benefits are usually increased in line with rising living costs in April each year using September’s official figure for inflation, which was 6.7 per cent this year.Hunt has warned he would have to take “difficult decisions” at the Autumn Statement and his aides said that uprating benefits at less than 6.7 per cent was “still very much a live option”.The row highlights the dilemma facing Hunt, as some of his colleagues want him to cut taxes at a time of very tight public finances, while others oppose inflicting painful cuts on voters ahead of an election.Ministers have discretion over benefit uprating decisions, but many Tory MPs warned that to break with the norm of taking the previous September’s inflation figure would anger voters.“We would oppose it,” said one former cabinet minister. “It would be a very strange thing to do at this stage of the political cycle. Some 40 per cent of people on universal credit are in work.”Another former minister said it would be “the best way to get more tents on the street”, while a rightwing Tory MP representing a largely working class seat said: “Low-income households are having a terrible time. Pressure on food banks is mounting.”Liz Truss, the former Tory prime minister, toyed with the idea of cutting benefits in real terms last year but ultimately the government was forced to uprate them by more than 10 per cent following a rebellion.Some Conservatives believe a revolt is less likely this year. One Tory official said that the backlash against Truss’s plan was partly a function of her unpopularity.Hunt and Mel Stride, work and pensions secretary, will await further forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility in the coming days before reaching their decision on whether to uprate by 6.7 per cent, according to government officials.The Resolution Foundation think-tank this week said Hunt could have higher-than-expected fiscal “headroom” of about £13bn in his Autumn Statement, allowing him to deliver better news.James Smith, the think-tank’s research director, said freezing working age benefits in cash terms — the most extreme option — could raise £4.2bn but it would “deepen an already damaging cost of living crisis” for 9mn families.Hunt could save a smaller amount by “under-uprating” benefits, for example increasing them by 5 per cent, in line with the expected latest inflation data when he delivers his Autumn Statement on November 22.Inflation is expected to fall towards 5 per cent next week and the Bank of England expects it to reach about 4 per cent in the first half of next year.The Treasury directed inquiries to the Department for Work and Pensions, which said: “We increased benefits by over 10 per cent this year in order to protect the most vulnerable from the impact of high inflation.“As is the usual process, the secretary of state will conduct his statutory annual review of benefits and state pensions using the most recent data available.”Hunt and Stride are also considering saving money by trimming “triple lock” increases in the state pension, which this year will be linked to average earnings. They could use earnings data that excludes bonus payments; the relevant figure would be 7.8 per cent. This would save an estimated £900mn compared with using the usual measure of total earnings growth, which stood at 8.5 per cent in the same period.  More

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    SAG-AFTRA and Hollywood Studios Agree to Deal to End Actors’ Strike

    The agreement all but ends one of the longest labor crises in the history of the entertainment industry. Union members still have to approve the deal.One of the longest labor crises in Hollywood history is finally coming to an end.SAG-AFTRA, the union representing tens of thousands of actors, reached a tentative deal for a new contract with entertainment companies on Wednesday, clearing the way for the $134 billion American movie and television business to swing back into motion.Hollywood’s assembly lines have been at a near-standstill since May because of a pair of strikes by writers and actors, resulting in financial pain for studios and for many of the two million Americans — makeup artists, set builders, location scouts, chauffeurs, casting directors — who work in jobs directly or indirectly related to making TV shows and films.Upset about streaming-service pay and fearful of fast-developing artificial intelligence technology, actors joined screenwriters on picket lines in July. The writers had walked out in May over similar concerns. It was the first time since 1960, when Ronald Reagan was the head of the actors’ union and Marilyn Monroe was still starring in films, that actors and writers were both on strike.The Writers Guild of America, which represents 11,500 screenwriters, reached a tentative agreement with studios on Sept. 24 and ended its 148-day strike on Sept. 27. In the coming days, SAG-AFTRA members will vote on whether to accept their union’s deal, which includes hefty gains, like increases in compensation for streaming shows and films, better health care funding, concessions from studios on self-taped auditions, and guarantees that studios will not use artificial intelligence to create digital replicas of their likenesses without payment or approval.SAG-AFTRA, however, failed to receive a percentage of streaming service revenue. It had proposed a 2 percent share — later dropped to 1 percent, before a pivot to a per-subscriber fee. Fran Drescher, the union’s president, had made the demand a priority, but companies like Netflix balked, calling it “a bridge too far.”Instead, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which bargains on behalf of entertainment companies, proposed a new residual for streaming programs based on performance metrics, which the union, after making some adjustments, agreed to take.At 118 days, it was the longest movie and television strike in the union’s 90-year history. SAG-AFTRA said in a terse statement that its negotiating committee had voted unanimously to approve the tentative deal, which will proceed to the union’s national board on Friday for “review and consideration.”It added, “Further details will be released following that meeting.”Shaan Sharma, a member of the union’s negotiating committee, said he had mixed emotions about the tentative deal, though he declined to go into specifics because the SAG-AFTRA board still needed to review it.“They say a negotiation is when both sides are unhappy because you can’t get everything you want on either side,” he said, adding, “You can be happy for the deal overall, but you can feel a sense of loss for something that you didn’t get that you thought was important.”Ms. Drescher, who had been active on social media during the strike, didn’t immediately post anything on Wednesday evening. She and other SAG-AFTRA officials had come under severe pressure from agents, crew member unions and even some of her own members, including George Clooney and Ben Affleck, to wrap up what had started to feel like an interminable negotiation.“I’m relieved,” Kevin Zegers, an actor most recently seen in the ABC show “The Rookie: Feds,” said in an interview after the union’s announcement. “If it didn’t end today, there would have been riots.”The studio alliance said in a statement that the tentative agreement “represents a new paradigm,” giving SAG-AFTRA “the biggest contract-on-contract gains in the history of the union.”There is uncertainty over what a poststrike Hollywood will look like. But one thing is certain: There will be fewer jobs for actors and writers in the coming years, undercutting the wins that unions achieved at the bargaining table.Even before the strikes, entertainment companies were cutting back on the number of television shows they ordered, a result of severe pressure from Wall Street to turn money-losing streaming services into profitable businesses. Analysts expect companies to make up for the pair of pricey new labor contracts by reducing costs elsewhere, including by making fewer shows and canceling first-look deals.The actors, like the writers, said the streaming era had negatively affected their working conditions and compensation.Jenna Schoenefeld for The New York TimesFor the moment, however, the agreements with actors and writers represent a capitulation by Hollywood’s biggest companies, which started the bargaining process with an expectation that the unions, especially SAG-AFTRA, would be relatively compliant. Early in the talks, for instance, the studio alliance — Netflix, Disney, NBCUniversal, Apple, Amazon, Sony, Paramount, Warner Bros. — refused to negotiate on multiple union proposals. “Rejected our proposal, refused to make a counter” became a rallying cry among the striking workers.As the studio alliance tried to limit any gains, the companies cited business challenges, including the rapid decline of cable television and continued streaming losses. Disney, struggling with $4 billion in streaming losses in 2022, eliminated 7,000 jobs in the spring.But the alliance underestimated the pent-up anger pulsating among the studios’ own workers. Writers and actors called the moment “existential,” arguing that the streaming era had deteriorated the working conditions and compensation for rank-and-file members of their professions so much that they could no longer make a living. The companies brushed such comments aside as union bluster and Hollywood dramatics. They found out the workers were serious.With the strikes dragging into the fall and the financial pain on both sides mounting, the studio alliance reluctantly switched from trying to limit gains to figuring out how to get Hollywood’s creative assembly lines running again — even if that meant bending to the will of the unions.“It was all macho, tough-guy stuff from the companies for a while,” said Jason E. Squire, professor emeritus at the University of Southern California’s School of Cinematic Arts. “But that certainly did change.”There had previously been 15 years of labor peace in Hollywood.“The executives of these companies didn’t need to worry about labor very much — they worried about other things,” Chris Keyser, a chair of the Writers Guild negotiating committee, said in an interview after the writers’ strike concluded. “They worried about Wall Street and their free cash flow, and all of that.”Mr. Keyser continued: “They could say to their labor executives, ‘Do the same thing you’ve been doing year after year. Just take care of that, because labor costs are not going to be a problem.’ Suddenly, that wasn’t true anymore.” As a result of the strikes, studios are widely expected to overhaul their approach to union negotiations, which in many ways dates to the 1980s.Writers Guild leaders called their deal “exceptional” and “transformative,” noting the creation of viewership-based streaming bonuses and a sharp increase in royalty payments for overseas viewing on streaming services. Film writers received guaranteed payment for a second draft of screenplays, something the union had tried but failed to secure for at least two decades.The Writers Guild said the contract included enhancements worth roughly $233 million annually. When bargaining started in the spring, the guild proposed $429 million in enhancements, while studios countered with $86 million, according to the guild.For an industry upended by the streaming revolution, which the pandemic sped up, the tentative accord takes a meaningful step toward stabilization. About $10 billion in TV and film production has been on hold, according to ProdPro, a production tracking service. That amounts to 176 shows and films.The fallout has been significant, both inside and outside the industry. California’s economy alone has lost more than $5 billion, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom. Because the actors’ union prohibited its members from participating in promotional campaigns for already-finished work, studios pulled movies like “Dune: Part Two” from the fall release schedule, forgoing as much as $1.6 billion in worldwide ticket sales, according to David A. Gross, a film consultant.With labor harmony restored, the coming weeks should be chaotic. Studio executives and producers will begin a mad scramble to secure soundstages, stars, insurance, writers and crew members so productions can start running again as quickly as possible. Because of the end-of-year holidays, some projects may not restart until January.Both sides will have to go through the arduous process of working together again after a searing six-month standoff. The strikes tore at the fabric of the clubby entertainment world, with actors’ union leaders describing executives as “land barons of a medieval time,” and writers and actors still fuming that it took studio executives months, not weeks, to reach a deal.Workers and businesses caught in the crossfire were idled, potentially leaving bitter feelings toward both sides.And it appears that Hollywood executives will now have to contend with a resurgent labor force, mirroring many other American businesses. In recent weeks, production workers at Walt Disney Animation voted to unionize, as did visual-effects workers at Marvel.Contracts with powerful unions that represent Hollywood crews will expire in June and July, and negotiations are expected to be fractious.“It seemed apparent early on that we were part of a trend in American society where labor was beginning to flex its muscles — where unions were beginning to reassert their power,” said Mr. Keyser, the Writers Guild official.Brooks Barnes More

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    Goldman Sachs chief economist predicts no recession despite Fed’s rate hikes

    Hatzius argued that the most severe negative impacts have already been felt, and the majority of the drag on GDP growth from the Fed’s monetary tightening was experienced in 2022 and early 2023. The recent rise in long-term interest rates has extended the economic deceleration for a few more quarters, but Goldman anticipates these influences will soon fade.Goldman Sachs suggests that the lag between monetary tightening and GDP growth is shorter than commonly assumed, initiating when markets predict tightening. Hatzius maintains a positive outlook on the economy, forecasting that inflation can decrease without causing substantial harm to the economy.He also predicts continued growth in real disposable household income, which will be beneficial for consumers. With inflation enduring slightly above 2%, Hatzius expects the Fed will abstain from any rate changes until Q4 of 2024.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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    Caesars averts strike in deal with Las Vegas unions

    NEW YORK (Reuters) -Unions representing hospitality workers in Las Vegas said they reached a “historic” tentative deal with Caesars (NASDAQ:CZR) Entertainment for a new contract for 10,000 employees on Wednesday, two days before a strike threatened to shut down the Strip.The negotiations come as unions across industries press employers for better pay and benefits, buoyed by a shortage of workers. Casino resort operators have been earning record profits from a steady post-pandemic recovery in Las Vegas tourism.The Culinary Workers and Bartenders Unions said the tentative five-year contract is of a “historic nature” given the wage increases in the first year and funds allotted to healthcare and pensions, according to Ted Pappageorge, Culinary Union Secretary-Treasurer.Caesars Entertainment, the second-biggest Las Vegas casino operator by number of employees, said the deal provides “meaningful wage increases” and aligns with plans to bring more union jobs to the Strip. The Las Vegas unions, considered among the most powerful in the United States, said it has also reduced the workload for housekeepers for the first time in 30 years and has negotiated language to be able to campaign and support non-union workers on the strip. “As a package, we think this is the best contract we’ve ever had,” Pappageorge told reporters on a call. Visits to the city in September were 4% lower than in the same period in 2019, according to data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Room rates, however, have surged more than 47%.The city is gearing up for events including the Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix this month, which is expected to draw thousands of tourists.”Companies that can’t afford a strike shutdown are going to face the most pressure to make big concessions,” said Erik Gordon, a University of Michigan business professor. “It’s taken a little too long in my opinion,” said Daniel Busby, 33, a fry cook at the Paris Las Vegas Hotel and Casino operated by Caesars, before the deal was reached. “We are just asking to be able to live a little bit more comfortably.” The unions have been in talks with the casinos for about seven months and 95% of their members had voted at the end of September to authorize a city-wide strike.TALKS WITH MGM, WYNN CONTINUETalks with casino operators MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) International and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) are yet to yield an agreement ahead of Friday’s deadline for a strike. A strike at MGM and Wynn would affect nine casino resorts and 25,000 workers, a majority of whom are employed by MGM. MGM said it expects to reach an agreement with the unions Wednesday and the deal will result in the largest pay increase in the history of its contracts with the unions, MGM chief executive officer, William Hornbuckle told investors on an earnings call. Wynn said its next bargaining session with the unions is scheduled for Thursday.MGM has said every 1% increase in wages will equal about $10 million of additional labor costs, according to Truist analyst Barry Jonas. Jonas estimated that wage increases could lift annual costs by $40 million to $60 million for Caesars and double that amount for MGM, based on their employee figures.The Culinary and Bartenders unions represent some 53,000 workers based in Vegas.Caesars and MGM shares gained 1%, while Wynn Resorts dropped 0.3%. More

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    US Senate votes to reject ‘Buy America’ EV charging waiver

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to overturn President Joe Biden’s decision to waive some “Buy America” requirements for government-funded electric vehicle charging stations but the White House said he would veto the measure.The White House argued the Republican bill would eliminate entirely the domestic manufacturing requirement for government-funded electric vehicle (EV) chargers “thereby harming domestic manufacturing and American jobs.”Senate Democrats Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester and independent Kyrsten Sinema joined Republicans in voting to reject the regulation.The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) in February agreed to waive some requirements until July 2024, saying it would enable “EV charger acquisition and installation to immediately proceed.”Congress has set aside $7.5 billion to fund electric vehicle charging stations. The funding is crucial to the Biden administration’s plans to ramp up electric vehicle sales.The White House said the bill to rescind the waiver would also overturn the FHWA decision to extend Buy America rules to EV chargers.As a result, the 1983 Reagan administration decision to exempt manufactured products from Buy America requirements would again apply, meaning EV chargers would not be covered by any Buy America requirements, the White House said.Republican Senator Marco Rubio challenged the White House argument, arguing the administration could separately rescind the 1983 decision at any time. Rubio said the waiver would allow government funds to “go into the hands of Chinese companies to build electric vehicle charging stations.”Under the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, infrastructure projects like EV chargers must obtain at least 55% of construction materials, including iron and steel, from domestic sources and U.S. manufactured.The rules do not start imposing the 55% requirement until July 2024 and EV chargers produced by then can receive funding if installation begins by October 2024.EV chargers require iron and steel for some of their most crucial parts, including the internal structural frame, heating and cooling fans and the power transformer. Chargers with cabinets that house the product require even more steel, making up to 50% of the total cost of the chargers in some cases.U.S. states and companies warned global demand for EV chargers is straining the supply chain, making it difficult, if not impossible, to meet made-in-America standards and expedite construction of new chargers. More