Economy

Before an election expected next year, Sunak’s governing Conservatives have witnessed a collapse of support among younger voters, who are frustrated at being priced out of owning their own homes and are struggling with high childcare costs.Housing has long been a contentious area for the Conservatives, who are divided between some lawmakers in rural areas who do not want to see an increase in building and want to protect greenbelt protected land, and between those in more urban regions, who want to see more homes built quickly.Housing minister Michael Gove will set out further measures on Monday to unblock the planning system and build homes in the “right places” where there is local consent to reach the 1 million target that was set out at the 2019 election. Sunak said his government would concentrate on building in inner-city areas where demand was highest, including a new urban quarter in Cambridge to boost its role as a science hub.”Today I can confirm that we will meet our manifesto commitment to build 1 million homes over this parliament. That’s a beautiful new home for a million individual families in every corner of our country,” Sunak said, using a term that refers to the time between the 2019 election and the next vote.”We won’t do that by concreting over the countryside – our plan is to build the right homes where there is the most need and where there is local support, in the heart of Britain’s great cities,” he said in a statement.The housing plan is the latest attempt by Sunak to reduce the opposition Labour Party’s large poll lead after an unexpected victory in a so-called by-election just outside central London on Friday offered him some breathing space.In June, British house building at the sharpest pace in more than 14 years apart from two months early in the COVID-19 pandemic, as higher borrowing costs dampened demand and weighed on the broader construction sector, a survey said this month.Earlier this month, a parliamentary committee said the government was on track to deliver 1 million new homes, but was not forecast to deliver another promise to build 300,000 net new homes per year by the mid-2020s, largely because of uncertainty over planning policy reform. More

“The teams of the Economy Ministry and Central Bank of Argentina and the IMF staff have finished the core aspects of the technical work of the next review,” the IMF said on Twitter.”The central objectives and parameters that will be the basis for a “staff level agreement” have been agreed, which is expected to be finalized in the next few days before moving towards the review of the Argentina program,” it added.Argentina faces maturities with the IMF worth some $3.4 billion between July 31 and Aug. 1, at a time when the central bank’s net reserves are about $6.5 billion in the red.The South American country is hoping to alter the economic goals it had agreed with the fund and bring forward some IMF disbursements scheduled for this year as it battles a severe financial crisis which a lack of reserves could exacerbate.An Economy Ministry source told Reuters the disbursement program for the second half of 2023 has already closed and that the staff level accord could be sealed on Wednesday or Thursday.Argentina, which is also struggling with high inflation and a significant fiscal deficit, has suffered a considerable hit to its foreign currency income due to a severe drought which crimped its principal source of exports, agriculture.The IMF said the agreement seeks to consolidate “fiscal order and strengthen reserves,” acknowledging the impact of the drought, as well as the damage to exports and tax revenues. More

Hello and welcome to the working week.While many of us are packing shorts and bathing suits for a summer getaway, spare a thought for the suits at the central banks of the US, the EU and Japan whose comments and actions will be the focus of market attention over the coming days.The Federal Open Market Committee begins its latest interest rate-setting meeting on Tuesday with an announcement due in the afternoon of Wednesday, and the European Central Bank follows a day later. Both are expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.The main focus of the Fed announcement will be on the signals that chair Jay Powell sends out on the potential for a further rate rise to tackle inflation.Japan is the joker in the pack. The markets have been pedalling back aggressive rate hike expectations for the Bank of Japan. But the increase in the headline rate of inflation last week, outpacing US inflation for the first time in eight years, has increased the chances of a surprise rate increase after a long period of ultra-loose monetary policy.Big Tech is the big theme of this week’s packed earnings schedule — more than 150 US companies will report results this week. An edited list of the key players is provided below. Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta Platforms face very different challenges, but artificial intelligence is a common concern. It’s not going to show through in revenues yet but analysts will be hoping to get a sense from this week’s numbers of when AI is likely to become a significant factor, as well as an understanding of the possible costs in terms of capital expenditure and pressure on margins.These issues matter to all investors. Gains by Big Tech company shares have been the engine of this year’s US stock market rally, so if these earnings disappoint the whole market will be vulnerable to a correction.One more thing . . . Someone will be celebrating this week. British pop icon Mick Jagger turns 80 on (Ruby) Wednesday, providing me with an excuse to share one of Lucy Kellaway’s great FT essays, explaining the enduring attraction of the Rolling Stones and how their live performances matured with age.What do you think? Email me at [email protected] or if you’ve received this in your inbox, hit reply.Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayFrance, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Cips/HCOB manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dataGermany: monthly retail sales figuresResults: Cranswick Q1 trading statement, Domino’s pizza Q2, Julius Baer H1, Moneysupermarket H1, Philips Q2, Ryanair Q1, Vodafone Q1 trading updateTuesdayIMF World Economic Outlook updateGermany: Ifo business climate surveyIndonesia: interest rate decisionSouth Korea: Q2 GDP figuresResults: Alphabet Q2, Alstom Q1, Akzo Nobel Q2, Brown & Brown Q2, Compass Group Q3 trading update, Corning Q2, Dassault Systèmes Q2, Deutsche Börse H1, Games Workshop FY, General Motors Q2, Kimberly-Clark Q2, Kuehne+Nagel H1, LVMH H1, Microsoft Q4, Mitie Q1 trading update and AGM, Randstad Q2, Reach H1, Rémy Cointreau Q1 sales, Snap Q2, Spotify Q2, Tata Motors Q1, UniCredit H1, Unilever H1, Verizon Communications Q2, Visa Q3, Whirlpool Q2, Wickes Group Q1 trading updateWednesdayAustralia: June consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate dataUS: Federal Open Market Committee July interest rate announcementResults: Airbus H1, AT&T Q2, Banco Santander Q2, Boeing Q2, British American Tobacco Q2, Carrefour Q2, Chubb Q2, Coca-Cola Company Q2, Danone H1, Deutsche Bank H1, eBay Q2, Enel H1, Equinor Q2, GSK Q2, Heathrow H1, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Q2, Just Eat Takeaway H1, Lloyds Banking Group H1, Meta Platforms Q2, Michelin H1, Nissan Motor Q1, Reckitt Benckiser H1, Rio Tinto H1, Seagate Technology Q4, Stellantis H1, Union Pacific Q2ThursdayEU: European Central Bank interest rate announcementGermany: GfK consumer climate surveyUS: Q2 GDP and consumer spending figuresResults: Anglo American H1, ArcelorMittal Q2, Banco Sabadell Q2, Barclays H1, Beazley H1 trading update, BNP Paribas Q2, Bristol Myers Squibb Q2, Britvic Q3 trading statement, BT Group Q1 trading update, Groupe Casino H1, Centrica H1, CMC Markets Q1 trading update, Comcast Q2, CVS Group trading update, EDF H1, Elementis H1, Ford Motor Company Q2, Foxtons H1, Frasers Group FY, Geox H1, Hammerson H1, Inchcape H1, Informa H1, Intel Q2, ITV H1, Jupiter Fund Management H1, Kering H1, L’Oreal H1, McDonald’s Q2, Mercedes-Benz Q2, Mobico Group H1, Nestlé H1, Renault H1, Rentokil Initial H1, Roche H1, Sage Q3 trading update, Samsung Electronics Q1, Schroders H1, Shell Q2, Singapore Airlines Q1, TotalEnergies H1, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield H1, Vivendi H1, Volkswagen H1, Willis Towers Watson Q2FridayFrance: flash Q2 GDP figures and preliminary June CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate dataGermany: preliminary June CPI and HICP inflation rate figuresJapan: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting interest rate decisionSpain: Q2 GDP figuresUS: June personal income and spending figuresResults: Air France-KLM H1, Aon Q2, AstraZeneca H1, Aston Martin Lagonda H1, Bouygues H1, Capgemini H1, Chevron Q2, Colgate-Palmolive Q2, Co-operative Bank H1, CNH Industrial Q2, Eni H1, ExxonMobil Q2, IAG Q2, NatWest H1, Procter & Gamble Q4, Standard Chartered H1, T Rowe Price Q2, YouGov FY trading statementWorld eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. MondayFrench president Emmanuel Macron begins a four-day visit to the French territory of New Caledonia to discuss Kanak identity, climate change and memorial justiceTuesdayUK: members of the Society of Radiographers begin a 48-hour strike across NHS Trusts in England in a dispute over pay and conditionsWednesdayAustralia: New Zealand, Tonga: US secretary of state Antony Blinken begins a tour of the three countries to discuss regional security and co-operation and attend the Fifa Women’s World Cup football tournamentUS: President Joe Biden’s son Hunter set to appear in front of a federal court in Wilmington, Delaware, to face misdemeanour tax and gun-related charges.Rolling Stones frontman Mick Jagger turns 80ThursdayKorea: 70th anniversary of armistice signed during the Korean war, although North and South Korea officially remain at war.Russia: St Petersburg hosts the second Russia-Africa summit and economic forum, starting today.US: President Joe Biden welcomes Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni to the White House.FridayUK: Four-day strike by 450 workers begins at Gatwick airport in a dispute over pay.SaturdayUK: 2023 Cowes Week, the world’s largest and longest-running international sailing regatta, begins on the Isle of Wight.SundayCentral African Republic: referendum on President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s intention to change the constitution and remove term limits, allowing him to run for a third term in 2025.Russian Navy Day, when the country shows off its latest warships, weaponry and aircraft. 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NEW YORK (Reuters) -A U.S. stocks rally faces a potential inflection point next week as the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver what may be the final rate hike of its most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle in decades.As the year began, many investors expected higher interest rates to bring on a recession that would further hurt stocks after 2022’s sharp decline. Instead, the U.S. economy is proving resilient even as the Fed has made progress in its inflation fight – an ideal “Goldilocks scenario” that many believe will support equities. The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% year-to-date and closed on Thursday at 4,534.87, only about 6% below an all-time high reached in January 2022.While investors broadly anticipate the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points at its July 26 meeting, many also hope for signs that policymakers are more confident inflation will continue cooling, eliminating the need for the Fed to lift borrowing costs much further and supporting the thesis that has helped buoy stocks in recent weeks.”A big part of the market is still macro driven and inflation is still in the driver’s seat. What the Fed does and says next week will be critical,” said Cliff Corso, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management. Expectations of a benign macroeconomic backdrop and an end to Fed tightening have pushed some analysts to revise views on how high stocks will go this year.Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse on Tuesday raised his year-end target on the S&P 500 to 4,700 from 4,050, citing a stronger economic outlook and expectations of strong technology and communication service earnings.Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee raised his year-end target to 4,825 earlier this month, while Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research sees the S&P 500 at 5,400 in the next 18 months.Meanwhile, a gauge tracked by the National Association of Active Investment Managers showed stock pickers’ exposure to equities at its highest since November 2021, months before the Fed began its rate hiking cycle. “Bearish investors have had to capitulate,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW). “We’re seeing a fundamental backdrop of lower inflation, resilient economic data, better consumer confidence, and a falling dollar that’s a pretty good recipe for gains.”Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, has increased his stock holdings in recent months and is growing more bullish on the tech sector in anticipation that companies’ earnings will improve as the economy remains resilient.”Consumers have been aided by a tight jobs market and some solid real wage gains, and at the same time we’re seeing some real progress on the inflation front,” he said.At the same time, forecasts for a recession – seen as all but a foregone conclusion at the beginning of the year – are growing less dire.Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) on Monday cut its probability of a U.S recession starting in the next 12 months to 20% from an earlier 25% forecast, positing that easing inflation could open a path for the Fed to lower rates without precipitating a downturn. The bank last month raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 4,500, from 4,000.Yet many strategists remain bearish, wary of shortfalls during the ongoing earnings season to surprises in the durability of inflation.Sunitha Thomas, senior portfolio manager at Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS), believes inflation will prove more stubborn than expected and has cut exposure to equities in recent months.”We’ve been telling clients that the market has had a very good run for some very good reasons, but now it’s a good time to rebalance,” she said.Rising valuations have been another concern, with the S&P 500 now trading at 20.8 times forward earnings, from around 16 times at the start of the year.However, Christopher Tsai, chief investment officer at Tsai Capital, is not worried about buying into an overvalued market. He has added eight companies to his portfolio this year, including index provider MSCI Inc and animal health company Zoetis Inc (NYSE:ZTS), that he believes have been overlooked in the market’s advance. “It’s hard to find names that are massively overvalued,” he said. More

European central banks could accelerate the process of shrinking their vast bond portfolios, according to officials and economists, who say this would reinforce their fight against inflation and make room to buy assets again in the next crisis.Rate rises have been the main tool for central banks to tackle the recent surge in inflation and both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to lift rates again this week, while the Bank of England looks set to follow suit next month.But they have also begun cutting their bond holdings in a process known as quantitative tightening, which shrinks the size of their balance sheets. The ECB and BoE still hold more than a quarter of their governments’ outstanding debt, while the Fed holds a fifth, according to data analysis by the Financial Times.This QT process, which started last year, has so far gone relatively smoothly with few signs of disruption in bond markets. This is giving economists and some senior central bank officials more confidence that it could be accelerated, particularly in Europe.Mark Wall, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said “it would be reasonable for the ECB to start thinking about the next step in the gradual unwind of the expanded balance sheet”, adding that this “could be a strategy to reinforce the credibility of further rate hikes”.Paul Hollingsworth, chief European economist at BNP Paribas, said: “While we do not think that a decision is imminent, more hawkish ECB members might be willing to accept a lower terminal rate if it allows QT to be accelerated.”Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist for fixed income at T Rowe Price, said that QT was “another way of taking demand out of the economy”. He added: “Central banks don’t like to talk about it because there’s a fine line between monetary and fiscal policy. If they used it more forcefully as an instrument it could work.”At the ECB’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, last month one rate-setter told the FT it could soon discuss the possibility of actively selling some bonds before they mature. German central bank boss Joachim Nagel said in March that “at a later stage” this year the ECB could also consider a faster shrinkage of a separate €1.7tn bond-buying programme it launched in response to the pandemic.Jens Eisenschmidt, chief Europe economist at Morgan Stanley, predicted the central bank could start shrinking this pandemic emergency purchase programme in January next year and completely stop reinvestments by July, which would reduce it by €133bn in 2024. “All the evidence so far suggests there is no reason they can’t go faster,” he said.Dave Ramsden, the BoE’s deputy governor for markets and banking, said last week that the central bank could quicken the pace of QT after September, because its experience had proved it was possible for the exercise to operate “in the background” and has not had a big economic impact.By contrast, the US Fed has shown no sign of planning to adjust that: inflation has fallen faster in the US than in Europe, and it has reason to be cautious on liquidity levels in financial markets. In 2019, the Fed was forced to halt QT after a $750bn reduction in its asset holdings in two years caused a jump in short-term funding costs.The Fed’s balance sheet peaked in April 2022 just shy of $9tn and has shrunk by roughly $850bn, according to calculations from Scott Skyrm, a repo trader at Curvature Securities.Praveen Korapaty, chief global rates strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the Fed could plough forward with QT this year and into 2024 without any issues given the financial system was “pretty far” from any kind of crunch point. However, he warned that an uneven distribution of bank reserves could mean certain institutions were facing more immediate pressures than others.“I’m very confident system-wise we are still saturated with liquidity . . . but it might not be the most useful distribution in the sense that clearly there are some small and midsize banks that are more constrained for reserves,” he said.The collapse of several lenders including Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year was a warning against overtightening financial conditions, some analysts said.“Before SVB happened, many at the Fed probably felt comfortable really pressing the issue on QT and seeing how low they could run the balance sheet,” said Blake Gwinn, head of rates strategy at RBC. “If we see any kind of hiccups or any kind of signs that banks are starting to become a little scarce on reserves, there is going to be a bit more anxiety there and they are going to be quicker to pull the trigger on ending QT.”Stepping up QT could help rebalance the distributional impacts of monetary policy tightening, Wieladek argued: “Policy rates remain the main instrument but it’s not clear that this is the best thing to do, especially if you end up pushing all the monetary adjustment on just one actor in the economy”, such as mortgage holders.But, he warned, the process carried risks: “There is a risk that we don’t know the consequences of QT. [It] may be non-linear so the cost of government borrowing suddenly rises significantly.”“This is uncharted territory for many of the world’s major central banks,” said Ashok Bhatia, the IMF director of offices in Europe. “On balance, we think the approach adopted thus far is appropriate, with room for periodic reassessments of the pace in the future.” More

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Nearly 70% of Israeli startups have taken action to relocate parts of their business outside Israel, a survey released on Sunday by an Israeli non-profit organisation on the government’s planned judicial overhaul found.The survey by Start-Up Nation Central sought to measure the economic impact plans by the hard-right coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that would restrict the Supreme Court’s powers to strike down legislation.For months, demonstrators have held mass street protests against the plans they say they threaten Israeli democracy by removing a check on executive power.Business groups have also cited the proposed changes as the reason for a 70% drop in tech fundraising in the first half of the year. Israel’s tech sector is a growth driver, accounting for 15% of economic output, 10% of jobs, more than 50% of exports and 25% of tax income. But institutional investors have not been a big part of its success, with most investment coming from venture capital funds.The survey, completed by professionals representing 521 companies, said 68% of Israeli startup companies “have begun taking active legal and financial steps, like withdrawing cash reserves, changing HQ location outside Israel, relocation of employees and conducting layoffs.” Additionally, 22% of companies said they have diversified cash reserves outside Israel and 37% of investors say companies in their portfolios have withdrawn some of their cash reserves and moved them abroad. “Concerning trends like registering a company abroad or launching new startups outside Israel will be hard to reverse,” said Start-Up Nation Central CEO Avi Hasson.The survey was released as lawmakers began debating a bill that would prevent the Supreme Court from quashing legislation on the grounds of manifest “unreasonableness”. More

The US Federal Reserve may feel a little smug this week as its interest rate setting committee meets for the last time before the summer break. Annual inflation in America slowed to just 3 per cent in June, the lowest since March 2021. It has dropped below even the traditionally inflation-challenged Japan, where price growth has hit 3.3 per cent. Perhaps more impressive is that joblessness has barely increased and the odds of a recession are falling, despite the Fed’s aggressive 500 basis points of rate rises over the past 18 months. Can chair Jay Powell really pull-off an “immaculate disinflation” of the US economy? If he did, it would make him one of the more successful Fed chiefs. Even the lauded Paul Volcker — who famously pushed interest rates up to 19 per cent in the early 1980s — ended up propelling US unemployment to its then highest since the Great Depression. Goldman Sachs now only sees a 20 per cent chance of a US recession over the coming year. Economic activity is resilient. This month consumer sentiment reached a near two-year high. Markets are expectant too. A swath of US stocks, not just tech firms, have rallied. But a “soft landing” — when inflation is brought down without triggering a significant downturn — is far from guaranteed.For starters, interest rates may still need to go higher. Investors expect a 25bp rise this week. The Fed’s “dot plot” of committee members’ rate projections also implies a further one this year. Last month’s drop in inflation to a two-year low was largely attributed to a fall in energy prices, and core inflation remains over double the 2 per cent target. Crushing demand further to pull price pressures down would entail more job losses. Vacancies have fallen, but the labour market still looks strong with sturdy growth in wages. The Fed could face a difficult trade-off between its dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability as the target nears. Indeed, the Bank for International Settlements says the “last mile” of the disinflation process could prove the hardest.It is also not precisely clear how fast the Fed’s prior rate rises have already passed through to the real economy, and will continue to do so. A recent Kansas City Fed paper said the peak deceleration in inflation could occur a year after tightening, but added that high uncertainty existed around that estimate. Either way, most economists agree a significant portion of the rate rises is still yet to be felt. That may well drag down growth further than currently anticipated.Post-pandemic idiosyncrasies in part also help to explain the peculiar trifecta of high rates, falling inflation and limited unemployment. The rundown of savings and fiscal support have propped up demand, while a shift in spending from durable goods to services has eased some price stresses. An immaculate disinflation scenario will depend on how these factors also pan out.Soft-landing optimism is not solely a US phenomenon. Some emerging markets that raised interest rates before advanced economies have already managed to bring down inflation without overly damaging output. European markets are increasingly hopeful now too. Inflation in both the eurozone and the UK took a notable step down last month, and their economies are showing some resilience. But it is worth remembering that in this uncertain climate, the pendulum between soft and hard landing scenarios has been swinging frequently. Indeed, while it is undoubtedly positive that inflation in the US and around the world is falling, this post-pandemic interest rate cycle is odd enough to give investors banking on a soft landing plenty of pause for thought. More

For investors and policymakers worldwide, China’s quarterly economic data is a starting point in decoding the state of the world’s second-largest economy, but the latest figures contained a puzzle of their own.The country’s gross domestic product had grown 0.8 per cent in quarterly terms and 6.3 per cent year on year in the second quarter. The combined quarter-on-quarter growth over the previous four quarters, however, implied growth of 6.8 per cent.The mismatch arose because of official “seasonal adjustment” revisions by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics to the quarterly growth data in 2022. While such revisions are routinely made, economists say their effect has become larger in recent years.The lack of any detailed explanation on the process illustrates the difficulty in parsing China’s statistics at a time when the trajectory of its economy is seen as crucial for global growth.“That is where we are at the moment. How much has the economy grown in the second quarter, or [has it] not? That is a very important question for the markets and policymakers alike,” said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at S&P Global. “Everyone is asking, ‘Is the Chinese economy stalling?’ It’s not easy to give a waterproof answer to that.”China has “certainly become more of a black box, and it’s just continuously moving in that trajectory”, said Shehzad Qazi, chief operating officer at China Beige Book, which publishes alternative economic indicators based on surveys of private companies in the country. The surveys have consistently implied weaker consumption than official figures show.

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Longstanding questions over how to interpret China’s economic indicators have a new sense of urgency in 2023, when official data has pointed to a loss of momentum following the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions. Policymakers are grappling with trade headwinds, weak consumption and a property cash crunch that has dragged on for almost two years.As in many other countries, China’s official data is typically seen as a “reference” that can be supplemented with other indicators, ranging from steel production to energy consumption. But while some new data series have been added, a wide range of other sources have been discontinued, often for no clear reason. It has also become more difficult to access supplementary and detailed information.“Disappearing series has been part of the challenge of analysing China in general, but accessing reliable data has definitely become harder in the past few years,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at forecasting company Enodo Economics in London.Questions around the reliability of domestic data flared up under the country’s zero-Covid policy. In the absence of clear information from local authorities, traffic data was used as an indicator of the severity of citywide lockdowns. The government stopped publishing death data after a nationwide outbreak began. This month the province of Zhejiang released and then deleted figures showing a sharp rise in cremations.Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at UBP, said he had been unable to access detailed data on local government land sales on Wind, a data platform, since its use outside the country was restricted this year. “If I were to guess, I would say the reason for that is that pockets of stress have appeared . . . and they don’t want the market to get too carried away,” he said.With the government tightening control on information, including a new data law that in many cases requires multinationals to split off their domestic and external data, fewer people are providing data of any kind. “When China Beige Book first got started, we had a multitude of competitors,” said Qazi, who testified before a US congressional committee on China this month regarding the country’s economic data. “Much of that has now disappeared.”Another economist working for an international investor, who asked to remain anonymous, said there was currently “less frank dialogue” within China and there were “some data constraints that are tightening”. That said, he doubted the government would disguise a growth shock. “They are sensitive to accusations that the data aren’t quite reliable,” he said. “[The government] would just have to print the numbers.”

A sense of slowing economic momentum in China has largely been based on the official data itself. The government has set a cautious growth target of 5 per cent, which Premier Li Qiang said in a speech last month the country was on course to achieve.Still, as China’s economy has proceeded to occupy a more significant position in a global context, there has been little corresponding development in its communications, analysts said. In its data release this week, the NBS said in a footnote that the revisions from its “seasonal adjustment model” related to month on month revisions for industrial enterprises, fixed asset investment and retail sales. It declined to comment further in response to a question on how the seasonal model works, and instead pointed to the release.“The national accounts data in China is still not produced in a way that we are familiar with in advanced economies,” said Kuijs. “In terms of accountability and transparency standards, you can go to [other countries] and ask them questions, and they are supposed to explain why did we change this.”Additional reporting by Andy Lin in Hong Kong More