Economy

LONDON (Reuters) – British consumers have turned more pessimistic in the face of rising interest rates and high inflation, according to a survey published on Friday which ended a five-month streak of growing confidence levels.Market research firm GfK’s headline gauge of consumer confidence fell to -30 this month from -24 in June, the first decline since January, and below the -26 forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.”Reality has started to bite and, as people continue to struggle to make ends meet, consumers will pull back from spending,” Joe Staton, GfK’s client strategy director said.The fall was the biggest month-on-month drop in GfK’s confidence measure since March to April 2022 when inflation accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. British inflation eased by more than expected in June, falling to 7.9% from 8.7% in May, but households are still contending with the fastest pace of price growth among the world’s big, rich economies.Staton said the recent slowdown in inflation will do little to improve consumer confidence. “Consumers need to see falling prices and interest rates before that happens,” Staton said. GfK’s monthly survey showed a decline in all measures of consumer sentiment compared to the previous month.The Bank of England has increased interest rates at 13 meetings in a row since the end of 2021, raising its Bank Rate to 5% in June. Financial markets see an even split in the chances of a 5.75% or 6% peak in rates. Britain’s economy has so far avoided forecasts of a recession this year. But GfK’s gauge of how consumers view the economy in the coming 12 months fell sharply to -33 from -25 this month while feelings about their personal finances over the same period fell by six points to -7.Its sub-index of shoppers’ willingness to make expensive purchases declined seven points.The resilience of consumer confidence in the first half of this year was helped by low levels of unemployment and separate data published on Friday showed employers still seeking to hire.The Recruitment and Employment Confederation said demand for staff was significantly higher than a year ago despite the cost-of-living headwinds facing the economy. Active job adverts were up by more than 50% as firms struggled to fill roles, Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the REC, said. More

UK consumer confidence plummeted in July as the rising cost of borrowing and high prices hit people’s morale, according to data that recorded the largest drop in sentiment for more than one year.The consumer confidence index, a measure of how Britons view their personal finances and wider economic prospects, fell six points to minus 30 in July compared with the previous month, research group GfK said on Friday.The latest reading marked the first fall in expectations since January and the largest drop since April last year.Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said that for the first six months of 2023 expectations had improved despite the continuing cost of living crisis, with double-digit inflation outpacing income growth and rising interest rates affecting homeowners and renters alike. However, “suddenly, this resilience has collapsed”, he said, referring to the July data.The survey was conducted in the first two weeks of July before news that inflation fell more than expected to 7.9 per cent in June led investors to trim their expectations of an interest rate rise at the next Bank of England meeting in August.Markets are now pricing in an interest rate peak of 5.75 per cent to 6 per cent, which could ease pressure on mortgage-holders. On Wednesday, data provider Moneyfacts reported that the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate fell to 6.79 per cent, down from an average rate of 6.81 per cent on the previous day. Despite the fall, the figure was still more than double the rate offered at the start of last year. Britons’ expectations for the general economy and their personal finances fell, dropping eight points and six points, respectively.

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer markets, leisure and retail for KPMG, said that “despite efforts of householders to reduce costs where they can, for some those efforts are simply dwarfed by the sizeable jumps in mortgage or rent they are facing”.The GfK index tracking whether consumers thought it was a good time to make big purchases, an indicator of spending intentions, dropped 7 points to minus 32.Staton said he expected consumer confidence would not substantially improve until prices and interest rates fell. “Reality has started to bite and, as people continue to struggle to make ends meet, consumers will pull back from spending,” he added. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and U.S. Transportation Department said on Thursday they expect teleworking government employees to boost in-person work, part of the Biden administration’s return-to-office efforts. The FAA said it expects agency employees who are regularly teleworking to be in offices at least three days per week. The FAA said in an email seen by Reuters it expects employees working remotely as of Oct. 9 to increase in-office presence to at least three days per week.Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg separately told department employees in a video “we need to be around each other in-person more than we are now to ensure this department’s long-term success.”The department said in an email to employees it expects teleworking employees to report in person to their official duty location a minimum of three days every two weeks starting Sept. 10 and a minimum of four days per pay period starting Dec. 3.”We understand this will be a big transition for some, and there will certainly be an adjustment period. We commit to providing as much support as possible to employees as you navigate this change,” USDOT said in an employee email.In April, the White House Office of Management and Budget in a memo first reported by Reuters asked federal agencies to revise workforce plans as it aims to “substantially increase meaningful in-person work in federal offices.”President Joe Biden in May ended the three-year COVID-19 emergency. Many of the 2 million civilian federal employees began working remotely in March 2020 but about half were required to remain in-person throughout the pandemic.Republican lawmakers have pressed federal agencies to require more government workers to return to offices.Many of those offices are in the Washington, DC area.In February, the House of Representatives passed legislation to mandate federal agencies to reinstate 2019 pre-pandemic telework policies, and require telework expansions be certified by the Office of Personnel Management as having a positive effect on an agency’s mission and costs. More

(Reuters) – An index designed to track turns in U.S. business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession.The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. The decline was slightly greater than the median expectation among economists in a Reuters poll for a 0.6% decrease.“Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024.”Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further,” Zabinska-La Monica said.The Conference Board said the contraction in the LEI is accelerating, falling 4.2% over the last six months compared to 3.8% between June and December 2022. More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.The bigger they are, the harder they fall.The old maxim wasn’t originally a reference to stock prices, but it’s a pretty apt summary of Wall Street’s moves on Thursday that will likely set a bearish tone at the open for Asian markets on Friday.After rallying almost 40% since the turn of the year, the Nasdaq posted its biggest one-day loss since March, dragged down 2.05% by steep post-earnings plunges in ‘mega tech’ stocks Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (-10%) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) (-8.5%).Before Thursday’s second quarter results, Tesla and Netflix had posted year-to-date gains of around 140% and 60%, respectively, lifting a closely-watched index of mega tech shares up by 85%. That ‘NYSE FANG+TM’ index slumped 4.6% on Thursday, its biggest fall this year.Safe to say, there was plenty froth to be taken out of this corner of the market.Other more defensive parts of the market, however, are powering on. The Dow Jones Industrials chalked up its ninth consecutive gain, lifted by a 6% post-earnings surge in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) shares, its biggest rise in more than three years.Big increases in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields on Thursday following the latest U.S. jobless claims figures – maybe a little over-cooked relative to the move in weekly claims – could also add to the broadly bearish tone in Asia.The regional data focus on Friday will be the latest consumer inflation figures from Japan.Core consumer inflation likely re-accelerated in June to a 3.3% annual rate from 3.2% the previous month, staying above the central bank’s 2% target for the 15th straight month.The data will be a key factor in the Bank of Japan’s July 27 to 28 policy meeting. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to insist the bank is some way from sustainably and stably achieving its 2% inflation target, signaling his resolve to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being.Many private sector economists reckon the BOJ should be moving faster to tweak its yield control policy, but so far they have been disappointed. Could an above-consensus inflation print on Friday move the dial for the BOJ?Japan’s government on Thursday forecast inflation sharply exceeding the central bank’s 2% target this year. In its mid-year review, the government expects overall consumer inflation to hit 2.6% for the fiscal year that began in April, up sharply from 1.7% projected in January. Inflation last year was 3.2%.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- Japan inflation (June)- South Korea producer price inflation (June)- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits Vietnam (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao) More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden asked a group of aides to explore “all legal and policy options” to prevent another debt limit standoff, the White House said on Thursday.Last month, the Democratic president signed a bipartisan deal after excruciating negotiations with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that narrowly averted a crisis that threatened to send the United States into an unprecedented default and economic crisis.A new group led by White House counsel Stuart Delery and National Economic Council Lael Brainard will examine, among other potential changes, actions Congress could take to make default risk “a thing of the past,” according to the statement.It was not immediately clear whether the panel, which includes no prominent Republican officials, would endorse doing away with the debt ceiling altogether or a novel legal theory Biden has toyed with that he may be able to ignore the statutory limits under 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.The Working Group would “examine potential actions that Congress could take to make the risk of default a thing of the past as well as Constitution-based and other approaches to avoiding a future crisis absent congressional action,” the White House said in a statement.The group includes Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Attorney General Merrick Garland, White House budget director Shalanda Young and Council of Economic Advisers chair Jared Bernstein.That group will consult with four legal scholars, including Professor Emeritus Laurence Tribe of Harvard Law School, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) global chief economist Seth Carpenter, among others, at their first session, the White House said.This year’s bipartisan debt ceiling deal keeps fiscal 2024 spending flat at this year’s levels, allowing a 1% increase for fiscal 2025. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the deal will cut deficits by about $1.5 trillion over a decade from its current-law baseline forecast.The deal was approved by 149 House Republicans – a strong party majority – along with 165 Democrats. Forty-six Democrats, mostly progressives, spoke out against the deal, saying it enforced stringent work requirements on poor families who receive food assistance or monetary aid and others who face obstacles to employment. More

KYIV (Reuters) -Ukraine’s central bank said it will nationalise Russian-owned Sense Bank, one of the country’s top commercial banks, and put it under temporary administration on Friday.The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said in a statement on Thursday it decided to “withdraw from the market the systemically important” bank and submitted a proposal to the government on the state’s participation in the process.The “safe” transfer will not be noticeable to clients, NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi told a media briefing.Previously known as Alfa-Bank Ukraine, Sense Bank is Ukraine’s 10th largest in terms of assets and is on the list of systemically important banks, central bank data showed.As part of its economic response to Moscow’s large-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, Kyiv has imposed sanctions on Russia and opened court cases to confiscate assets held by the Russian state in Ukraine and businessmen close to the Kremlin.In June, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed into law the legislation allowing the government to nationalize banks from owners that came under sanctions due to Russia’s invasion.In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy took note of the central bank’s move, without identifying Sense Bank by name.”It is now only right that the cabinet of ministers immediately considers the relevant proposals of the central bank and supports them in relation to this financial institution,” Zelenskiy said.”In the interests of investors, for the sake of financial stability and fundamental justice.” ‘SIGNIFICANT RISK’The central bank said the connections of Sense Bank’s owners with Russia “pose a significant reputational risk and have a significant negative impact on the bank’s activities.””The regulatory capital of Sense Bank fell by 50% in the period from March 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, while at the same time, it grew by about 29% at other systemically important banks,” Pyshnyi said.Ukrainian-born Russian-Israeli businessman Mikhail Fridman has a 32.86% stake in ABH Holdings S.A., the majority owner of Sense Bank, while Russian magnate Petr Aven holds 12.4%, the bank said on its website. Fridman and Aven could not be immediately reached for comment.Sense Bank, with 3 million depositors, posted losses of 7 billion hryvnias ($189.75 million) in 2022, the central bank said.The Ukrainian financial sector and its banking system have proved remarkably resilient during nearly 17 months of the war under the central bank and government’s policies and strong financial support from Kyiv’s Western partners. Central bank officials said they discussed their plans to nationalise the bank with the International Monetary Fund, the country’s key lender.The officials said the government’s decision was expected on Friday and all steps on the bank’s nationalisation should be completed over the weekend.Fridman and Aven are long-term partners in oil, banking and retail businesses and they face Western sanctions over their alleged ties to the Kremlin following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fridman, who was born in western Ukraine during the Soviet-era times, cast the war in Ukraine as a tragedy.($1 = 36.8910 hryvnias) More

As Black Sea-bound vessels clustered in the waters near Istanbul, wheat prices remained elevated on Thursday, up 13 percent since Monday, when Russia pulled out of a wartime agreement that had been considered critical to stabilizing global food prices.The termination of the deal, which had permitted Ukraine to safely export its grain through the Black Sea, could have significant long-term consequences for grain supplies, said Alexis Ellender, a global analyst at Kpler, a commodities analytics firm. Despite robust grain harvests from exporters including Brazil and Australia, prices could become volatile.“By not having Ukraine there as a supplier, we’re increasing the vulnerability of the global grain market to these shocks,” Mr. Ellender said. “In the short term, supplies are good, but longer term, if we get any more supply shocks, we’re more vulnerable in terms of the global market.”Another drought in Brazil, like in 2021, or a disruption to Australia’s barley and wheat crop caused by El Niño, could cause prices to soar, he said.Russian threats to attack commercial vessels heading to Ukrainian ports have stalled traffic in the area. Marine tracking data shows that ships that had been en route to the Black Sea are sitting in ports in Istanbul as they wait to see if an agreement could be hammered out.“They’re still deciding what they’re going to do,” he said. Some vessels could look to pick up shipments of grain from other parts of Europe.At the moment, a quick resolution looks unlikely. Russia bombarded the port city of Odesa with missiles and drones on Tuesday and Wednesday, after an apparent Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia.The suspension of the deal between Russia and Ukraine also has implications for maritime insurers and shipowners, who will no longer have insurance coverage to travel to Ukrainian ports, said James Whitlam, a product director at Concirrus, a marine data and analytics platform. While the deal between Russia and Ukraine was in effect, ships were able to secure insurance coverage under a temporary agreement.“Insurance markets are now scrambling around trying to understand what exposure they have,” Mr. Whitlam said.Despite recent increases, grain prices are still lower than they were on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, partly because the end of the deal was expected, Mr. Ellender said. In addition, Ukrainian grain exports have recently been at reduced levels because of limited labor, with workers fighting the war, and limited fuel supplies and lost territory to Russia.Ukraine has also increased exports by truck, train and river barge.Ukraine is still likely to be able to export most of its wheat, corn, barley and sunflower seeds via alternative routes, said Rabobank, a Dutch bank, on Thursday. But this will put additional pressure on ports on the Danube River, which flows from the Black Forest in Germany to the Black Sea, and the cost of transport will become more expensive, and rail infrastructure will be at a higher risk of Russian attack, the note said.“The higher transport cost means that Ukrainian farmers may, quite possibly, reduce planted area in the future,” the note said.Ukraine is one of the leading exporters of grain and the leading global exporter of sunflower oil, and the deal had allowed Ukraine to restart the export of millions of tons of grain that dropped after the invasion.Ukraine has exported 32.9 million metric tons of grain and other agricultural products to 45 countries since the initiative began, according to United Nations data. Under the agreement, ships had been permitted to pass by Russian naval vessels that had blockaded Ukraine’s ports in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion.Soaring prices are expected to hit the poorest people in the world the hardest. Ukraine last year had supplied more than half of the World Food Program’s wheat grain sent to people in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen, according to the U.N. More