Economy

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Australia’s central bank will keep key interest rate unchanged at 3.85% on Tuesday despite inflation staying well above the target range, according to a Reuters poll of economists who were divided on when and where rates would peak this year.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates last month after pausing in April, confounding financial markets and a majority of economists who were expecting the central bank to hold.So far there has been little evidence inflation will fall to the RBA’s target range of between 2% and 3% anytime soon and RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a recent appearance before lawmakers “we’ve got work to do there.”But while expectations for future rate hikes were very much alive, a strong three-quarters majority of economists, or 22 of 30, forecast the RBA to hold its official cash rate at 3.85% on June 6.All major local banks – ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac – expect a pause on Tuesday.The remaining eight in the poll taken between May 29 and June 1 poll expected a 25 basis point hike. Interest rate futures were pricing in a roughly one-in-three chance of a rate hike then.TARGET RANGE”We expect a pause in June because the RBA has slowed down the cadence of rate hikes. And having gone in May after pausing in April, we are not sure the data makes the case for them to go as soon as June, even as we do still expect (one) more hike,” said Taylor Nugent, economist at NAB.”The level of interest rates is still not sufficiently restrictive for the RBA to be comfortable inflation will get back to target in time,” Nugent added. “We think the RBA will move again by August.”Inflation has stayed at or above the central bank’s upper target range since June 2021. The latest monthly data showed annual price rises in April accelerated to 6.8% from 6.3% in March. On a quarterly basis, inflation was last reported at 7.0%, with the next set of data due in July. While many say rates will still need to rise, there was no clear consensus about where the cash rate would be by the end of the third quarter, a split that has persisted from a poll conducted last month. Some analysts have referred to a stop-start approach from the central bank in recent months as leading to confusion over how much higher rates will need to go, if at all. More than half of respondents, or 18 of 28, expected rates to reach 4.10% or higher by end-September, including four who saw rates at 4.35%. The remaining 10 expected rates to stay at 3.85%. “If the inflation data comes in stronger than the RBA’s forecasts, then they will likely deliver on that hiking bias. So there’s a clear risk over the next two or three meetings that they hike (the) cash rate,” said Gareth Aird, head of Australian Economics at CBA.Meanwhile, the housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year, compared with a near double-digit fall predicted three months ago.(Other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package can be found on this link.) More

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Hackers have stolen data from the systems of a number of users of the popular file transfer tool MOVEit Transfer, U.S. security researchers said on Thursday, one day after the maker of the software disclosed that a security flaw had been discovered.Software maker Progress Software (NASDAQ:PRGS), after disclosing the vulnerability on Wednesday, said it could lead to potential unauthorized access into users’ systems.The managed file transfer software made by Burlington, Massachusetts-based Progress allows organizations to securely transfer files and data between business partners and customers, and according to the company is used by thousands of organizations.Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL)’s Mandiant consulting and cybersecurity firm Rapid7 (NASDAQ:RPD) disclosed on Thursday that they had found a number of cases in which the flaw had been exploited to steal user data.It wasn’t immediately clear how many users were impacted, but Mandiant Consulting said it was investigating “several” intrusions linked to the bug.It was not known when the flaw was discovered by hackers. A Progress Software spokeswoman didn’t immediately respond to a request for further comment.”Mass exploitation and broad data theft has occurred over the past few days,” Charles Carmakal, chief technology officer of Mandiant Consulting, said in a statement.Such “zero-day,” or previously unknown, vulnerabilities in managed file transfer solutions have led to data theft, leaks, extortion and victim shaming in the past, according to Mandiant.”Although Mandiant does not yet know the motivation of the threat actor, organizations should prepare for potential extortion and publication of the stolen data,” Carmakal added. Rapid7 said it had noticed an uptick in cases of compromise linked to the flaw since it was disclosed. Progress, in a statement on Wednesday, outlined steps users at risk can take to mitigate the impact of the security vulnerability. More

(Reuters) – Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) Inc raised its annual sales and profit forecasts on Thursday as wealthy Americans snap up its pricey activewear even though inflation hounds wider retail spending, sending the company’s shares up 13% after hours. A strong rebound in China, easing air freight costs and tighter inventory control also helped first-quarter results surpass estimates at the Vancouver, Canada-based company. The pandemic-era appetite for comfortable clothing and activewear has turned into a habit for most Americans. That, along with a higher-income customer base, has been a boon for companies such as Lululemon and Nordstrom Inc (NYSE:JWN).”We’ve seen no change in our (customer) behavior in terms of frequency of purchase or engagement,” Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald said on a post-earnings call. Transactions increased from both existing and new customers, while traffic was also robust. Lululemon’s crowd-favorite Dance Studio pants and new silhouettes such as flared and wide-leg leggings were also in vogue, along with accessories such as backpacks and duffle bags, McDonald added. “I think they surprised everybody … There’s not many companies in retail that have had this solid track record of very strong growth in comps every quarter,” said M Science analyst Matthew Jacob.Lululemon’s inventories at quarter-end were up 24%, a smaller increase than the company had estimated in March. It expects growth of about 20% at the end of the current quarter. The easing of China’s strict COVID-19 curbs bolstered revenues from the region by 79%, while North America sales jumped 17%. That drove net revenue up 24% to $2 billion in the quarter, beating estimates of $1.93 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES.Lululemon now expects full-year 2023 revenue between $9.44 billion and $9.51 billion, compared with $9.30 billion to $9.41 billion projected earlier.It forecast annual profit between $11.74 and $11.94 per share, up from $11.50 to $11.72 earlier. More

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed the bill on Wednesday evening in a bipartisan 314-117 vote. Here’s a summary of the deal:A CAP ON DISCRETIONARY SPENDINGThe deal would suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025, allowing the U.S. government to pay its bills.In exchange, non-defense discretionary spending would be “roughly flat” at current year levels in 2024, “when factoring in agreed upon appropriations adjustments,” according to White House officials.They estimated that total non-defense discretionary spending excluding benefits for veterans would total $637 billion for the 2024 fiscal year, down marginally from $638 billion the year before. That total would also increase by 1% in 2025.A BREATHER FOR THE 2024 ELECTIONThe debt limit extension lasts past 2024, meaning Congress would not need to address the deeply polarizing issue again until after the November 2024 presidential election.Still, tough conversations about how to allocate money under the new spending caps will need to take place in Congress this year.INCREASED DEFENSE SPENDINGThe deal would boost total defense spending to $886 billion, in line with Biden’s 2024 budget spending proposal.That is about a 3% increase from the $858 billion allocated in the current budget for the Pentagon and other defense-related programs in other agencies.MOVING SPECIAL IRS FUNDINGBiden and Democrats secured $80 billion for a decade in new funding to help the Internal Revenue Service enforce the tax code for wealthy Americans in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, a move the administration said would yield $200 billion in additional revenue over the next 10 years.The IRS earmarked the money for hiring thousands of new agents, and the extra tax revenue they generated was expected to offset a slew of climate-friendly tax credits.The new legislation and subsequent appropriations would shift $10 billion in each of calendar years 2024 and 2025 in funding away the Internal Revenue Service. But administration officials believe the IRS can make do in the near term since it was funded over a 10-year period. COVID CLAWBACKBiden and McCarthy agreed to claw back much of the unused COVID relief funds as part of the budget deal. The estimated amount of unused funds is between $50 billion and $70 billion.White House officials said some funds would be retained, including items related to vaccine funding, housing assistance and support for Native Americans.WORK REQUIREMENTSBiden and McCarthy battled fiercely over imposing stricter work requirements on low-income Americans for being eligible for food and healthcare programs.No changes were made to Medicaid in the deal, but the agreement would impose new work requirements on some low-income people who receive food assistance under the program known as SNAP up to age 54, instead of up to age 50. STUDENT LOANS The new bill would require the Biden administration to follow through with a plan to end the current pause on student loan repayments by late August.But it did not strike down Biden’s plan to forgive $430 billion in student debt, which the Supreme Court is currently reviewing.’PAYGO’Republicans secured a budgeting mechanism known as “PAYGO,” which is short for pay-as-you-go, that says new government agency actions affecting revenues and spending should be offset by savings.But the law would give Biden’s budget director the opportunity to issue waivers to that requirement and it would also limit judicial review of the decisions.ENERGY PERMITTINGBiden and McCarthy agreed to tweak rules to make it easier for pipeline projects – including fossil-fuel based ones – to gain permit approval, but did not make any changes to help solar and wind projects get access to the nation’s power grid. The legislation does include swifter approval of a project backed by U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. The long-delayed $6.6 billion Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline would get streamlined approval under the legislation. More

COLOMBO (Reuters) – In a sign of confidence that the worst of Sri Lanka’s financial crisis is over, its central bank surprised markets by cutting interest rates for the first time in three years on Thursday, signalling a change of course to fuel a rebound in the economy. The South Asian island republic plunged into crisis last year as its foreign exchange reserves ran out, food and energy prices spiralled and protesting mobs forced the ouster of the country’s then president.President Ranil Wickremesinghe took the reins in July and negotiated a $2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March.In an address to the nation on Thursday, Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka will work to cut government spending, boost foreign investment and create jobs as the country seeks to return to growth. “The country’s economy is gradually recovering from the crisis, thanks to correct policies including the collective efforts of the people.”Wickremsinghe outlined multiple reform measures including increasing exports, attracting international investors and restructuring loss-making state enterprises to put public finances in order and return to country to growth. IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura said on Thursday in a statement at the conclusion of his visit to Colombo that the country is showing a “strong commitment” to implementing economic reforms but must continue this momentum even in a challenging economic environment.Inflation, which hit a record high of around 70% in September, is coming down, government revenues are looking up and pressure on the country’s balance of payments is easing.The government aims to complete talks to restructure its bilateral debt with other countries by September.”This can possibly be seen as an end to the crisis,” said Sanjeewa Fernando, a senior vice president at Asia Securities in Colombo.The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut its standing deposit facility rate and standing lending facility rate by 250 basis points to 13% and 14%, respectively, from 15.5% and 16.5%. The central bank said the big rate cut would “help steer the economy towards a rebound phase.”Governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe said the economy “was getting back to normalcy”.”Coming out of the crisis is gradual,” he told reporters. “Cannot say yesterday, day before or tomorrow. It is a gradual recovery process.”While inflation has come down, it remains steep, so most analysts had expected the bank to keep rates steady. The rates are now at their lowest level since March 2022, the start of the crisis. The surprise decision was welcomed by markets, with the rupee rising to 288 against the dollar, its highest since April 2022 and the benchmark Colombo Stock Exchange index closing up 1.59%, lifting away from five-month lows. The rate cut comes after the key Colombo Consumer Price Index rose 25.2% on year in May compared with 35.3% in April, reducing some stress on the crisis-hit economy.The index peaked at a annual 69.8% surge in September last year. The national inflation rate was at 33.6% in April, easing from 73.7% in September.SHIFTING GEARSAnalysts said with the CBSL having successfully dealt with the runaway inflation, it was turning its attention to growth.The central bank raised rates by a record 950 basis points last year to tame inflation and by 100 bps on March 3 this year.The IMF expects gross domestic product to contract 3% this year after a 7.8% contraction last year. The CBSL has forecast a 2% contraction in 2023 and Weerasinghe said the bank expects the economy to grow from the third quarter onward after a small contraction in the second quarter.”Hopefully banks will gradually expand their loan books and credit will start flowing into businesses and with that the economy will start to recover,” Weerasinghe said.Inflation is expected to moderate further, with Fernando at Asia Securities predicting a figure of 5% by year end.The IMF has set Sri Lanka an inflation target of 15.2% for this year but the CBSL is eyeing a more ambitious target of single-digit inflation by September that was clearly within reach, Weerasinghe said. “Headline inflation is forecast to reach single-digit levels in early Q3 2023, and stabilise around mid-single digit levels over the medium term,” the bank said.It said faster deceleration of inflation and the lower probability of demand pressure during the economic rebound “creates space for a gradual policy relaxation in the period ahead.” More

The justices ruled that federal labor law did not block state courts from ruling on a case regarding damage caused when workers walked off the job.The Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that federal labor law did not protect a union from potential liability for damage that arose during a strike, and that a state court should resolve questions of liability.The majority found that if accusations by an employer are true, actions during a strike by a local Teamsters union were not even arguably protected by federal law because the union took “affirmative steps to endanger” the employer’s property “rather than reasonable precautions to mitigate that risk.” It asked the state court to decide the merits of the accusations.The opinion, written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, was joined by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Brett M. Kavanaugh.Three conservative justices backed more sweeping concurring opinions. A single justice, Ketanji Brown Jackson, dissented.Some legal experts had said a union setback in the case would discourage workers from striking by making the union potentially liable for losses that an employer incurred during a work stoppage.“It will definitely lead to more expensive-to-resolve lawsuits against labor unions,” said Charlotte Garden, a law professor at the University of Minnesota who was an author of a brief in support of the union. Professor Garden did note, however, that the decision was less far-reaching in discouraging strike activity than it could have been.Others have argued that the ruling was necessary to prevent workers from intentionally harming an employer’s property, an act not protected by federal labor law, and that such restrictions do not jeopardize the right to strike.“Damages from intentional destruction of property are not inherent to the act of striking,” said Michael O’Neill of the Landmark Legal Foundation, a conservative legal advocacy group that submitted a brief in the case. As a result, Mr. O’Neill said, the law does not shield workers or unions from liability for such damage.The case, Glacier Northwest v. International Brotherhood of Teamsters, No. 21-1449, involved unionized employees of a concrete mixing and pouring company who walked off the job during contract negotiations, leaving wet concrete in their trucks. The employer argued that it suffered substantial monetary losses because the abandoned concrete was unusable.The union argued that it had taken reasonable steps to avoid harming the employer’s property, as federal law requires, because workers kept their trucks running as they walked off the job. That allowed the company to dispose of the concrete without damage to the trucks. The union said the lost concrete amounted to the spoilage of a product, for which unions were not typically held liable.At issue were two key questions. The first was procedural: whether the case should be allowed to go forward in state court, as employers generally prefer. The alternative is that the state court — in this case, Washington — should step aside in favor of the National Labor Relations Board, the federal agency responsible for resolving labor disputes.The second question was about what economic damage is acceptable during a strike, and what amounts to vandalism — which federal labor law does not protect — of property or equipment.The two issues are linked because under legal precedent, the labor board is supposed to elbow aside state courts when the alleged actions during the strike are at least “arguably protected” by federal law.The Supreme Court ruled that the union’s actions, as alleged by the employer, were not arguably protected because the spoilage of the product was not merely an indirect result of the strike. Instead, the employer contended in a lawsuit, “the drivers prompted the creation of the perishable product” and then waited until the concrete was inside the trucks before walking off the job.“In so doing, they not only destroyed the concrete but also put Glacier’s trucks in harm’s way,” the majority opinion said. It sent the case back to Washington State court to be litigated.Sean M. O’Brien, the president of the Teamsters, issued a defiant statement after the decision was announced. “The Teamsters will strike any employer, when necessary, no matter their size or the depth of their pockets,” he said.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said the court “got it right” in ruling that federal law “does not pre-empt state tort claims against a union for intentional destruction of an employer’s property during a labor dispute.”In a concurring opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas agreed that the Washington State court should be allowed to take up the case. He wrote that in a future case, the Supreme Court should reconsider whether the National Labor Relations Board should have such wide latitude to take the first pass in such cases.Justice Jackson noted in her dissent that the labor board had issued its own complaint since the case was first filed in Washington State. In issuing its complaint, the labor board’s general counsel found that the strike activity was in fact protected. This by definition meant that the activity was “arguably protected,” Justice Jackson wrote, requiring the state court to stand down.The decision, which some experts said could cause unions to reconsider striking or take a more cautious approach when a perishable product could be harmed, followed a series of rulings that appeared to scale back the power of unions and workers.The court ruled in 2018 that companies could prohibit workers from collectively bringing legal actions against their employers, even though the National Labor Relations Act protects workers’ rights to engage in so-called concerted activities.In the same year, the court ruled that public-sector unions could no longer require nonmembers to pay fees that help fund bargaining and other activities that unions do on their behalf.In 2021, the court deemed unconstitutional a California regulation that gave unions access to agricultural employers’ property for recruitment.In interviews, union leaders said that the ruling on Thursday would further tilt an already uneven playing field toward employers, and that it was often not a strike itself but the threat of a strike that helped unions win concessions.“Without the threat of a strike, you have little leverage in negotiations,” said Stuart Appelbaum, the president of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which has organized successful strikes.Mr. O’Neill’s group, the Landmark Legal Foundation, argued that a ruling against the employer could have jeopardized the labor peace that the National Labor Relations Act was enacted to assure, “placing workers and the public at risk” by essentially blessing acts of vandalism and sabotage.Unions and workers often deliberately plan strikes to exploit employers’ vulnerability — for example, Amazon workers walked out during the holiday season — and rely on an element of surprise to maximize the economic harm they inflict, and therefore the leverage the union gains.In the near term, unions that are contemplating strikes or already striking, such as unions representing Hollywood writers or United Parcel Service employees whose contract expires this summer, may have to take greater precautions to insulate themselves from legal liability.Such precautions will typically weaken the impact of strikes, said Ms. Garden, the University of Minnesota professor. “You could get unions prophylactically adopting less effective tactics — things like giving advance warning about strike, which gives the employer a lot more time to hire replacement workers,” she said.Other unions may simply decide not to strike at all out of fear of heightened legal exposure, she said.Further out, unions and their political allies may seek to enact legislation that explicitly exempts workers from liability for certain types of economic damage that arise during a strike.“There will be efforts in blue states to make the best of it, to do something protective,” said Sharon Block, a former Biden and Obama administration official who is a professor of practice at Harvard Law School.But even these laws could wind up being challenged before the Supreme Court, experts said.Adam Liptak More

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect job growth in May of 190,000, a slowdown from the 253,000 jobs added in April and the smallest gain since December 2020.
The jobs count has beaten consensus estimates 13 of 16 times since January 2022.
Wages are expected to increase 0.3% for the month and 4.4% from a year ago, a level that officials have said is not consistent with a return to 2% inflation.

Construction workers on a job site on May 05, 2023 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Watching the monthly jobs reports this year has been something of a waiting exercise, with economists and market participants looking for a downturn that never seems to arrive.
That scenario is likely to recur Friday when the Labor Department releases its nonfarm payrolls count for May. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect job growth of 190,000, a slowdown from the 253,000 jobs added in April, below the 2023 monthly average of 284,500 and the lowest monthly gain since December 2020.

But judging by the way these reports have been going, the risk is probably to the upside in a jobs market that has been nothing if not resilient. The jobs count has beaten consensus estimates 13 of 16 times since January 2022.
“The labor market still looks tight. Job openings are very high, unemployment is at a 50-plus-year low. We’re expecting further job gains… actually a bit above consensus,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. “I would tell people to focus on whatever the trend is.”
For how much the headline numbers have been defying the market outlook, LaVorgna sees some underlying weakness.

Total job openings edged higher in April to 10.1 million, but the pivotal leisure and hospitality industry actually registered a nearly 6% decline, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. That could be bad news for a sector that has generated more than 900,000 jobs over the past year.
Also, the April nonfarm payrolls report showed that job growth estimates for the prior two months were cut by 149,000, indicating that the picture from earlier this year hadn’t been quite as robust as initially indicated.

“Right now, we’re getting close to an inflection point,” said LaVorgna, who was chief economist for the National Economic Council under former President Donald Trump. “I don’t think it’s going to happen in May, but given the amount of tightening in the economy that the Fed has engineered and given that lending standards have gotten more restrictive, the labor market should weaken. History tells us when it happens, it happens fast.”

Defying the Fed

The tight labor market and the pressure that has put on wages and inflation has bedeviled the Federal Reserve. The central bank has raised interest rates 10 times since March 22, only to see inflation stay well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Policymakers, though, have signaled that they may be willing to skip hiking again when they meet later in June, as they look to see how all the policy tightening has impacted conditions.
“A decision to hold our policy rate constant at a coming meeting should not be interpreted to mean that we have reached the peak rate for this cycle,” Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said in a speech Wednesday. “Indeed, skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the [rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee] to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming.”
One area policymakers will be focused on is average hourly earnings.
Wages are expected to increase 0.3% for the month and 4.4% from a year ago, a level that officials have said is not consistent with a return to 2% inflation. However, May could bring some good news in that regard.

A ‘fully staffed’ jobs market?

Data from Homebase indicates wages for small- and medium-sized businesses declined 0.2% in May, the first monthly decline since 2021. That came even with a 0.64% increase in employees working and a 1.16% gain in hours worked.
Payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that wages for workers who stayed at their jobs increased 6.5% in May, still high but a deceleration from previous months. ADP also said private payrolls expanded by a higher-than-expected 278,000 in May.
A Fed report Wednesday noted that wages grew “modestly” which was in line with the rest of the observations the “Beige Book” had about the jobs economy.
“Overall, the labor market continued to be strong, with contacts reporting difficulty finding workers across a wide range of skill levels and industries,” the report said, noting that some employers said “they were fully staffed, and some reported they were pausing hiring or reducing headcounts due to weaker actual or prospective demand or to greater uncertainty about the economic outlook.”
The unemployment rate in May was expected to nudge higher to 3.5%, which would still be near the lowest level since 1969. More

A squeeze on budget shoppers has forced US discount retailer Dollar General to cut its sales forecast, sending its shares down 20 per cent in a sign of mounting pressures in the American economy. The store chain known for dollar-priced goods on Thursday predicted net sales growth in the range of 3.5-5 per cent in 2023, down from a previous estimate of between 5.5-6 per cent. “Our sales guidance assumes our customer will remain under pressure for the remainder of the year,” Kelly Dilts, chief financial officer, said on a call with investors. The weaker outlook comes as US consumers are increasingly stretched by months of persistent inflation. Nearly a third of US adults reported they were either “just getting by” or “finding it difficult to get by”, according to a survey taken in late 2022 that was released last week by the Federal Reserve. Higher inflation and depleted coronavirus pandemic savings have hit lower-income consumers, the core customers of retailers such as Dollar General. Rival Dollar Tree last week cut its profit outlook as it said that customer spending was shifting away from durable goods to lower-margin food. Dollar General also said that its core customers were spending more on low-margin essential items. At the same time, the company reported more customers with higher incomes coming through its doors. “While we have attracted and retained a significant number of customers in higher income brackets in recent years, our guidance does not assume a significant trade-in benefit for this year,” Dilts said, referring to the effects of a shift in customer income profiles. Dollar General reported net sales in the first quarter that ended May 5 increased 6.8 per cent to $9.3bn, missing analysts’ expectations for revenue of $9.46bn, as customer traffic declined and sales fell in apparel, home and seasonal categories. Among the economic drags on the company were lower tax refunds than customers expected, reductions in government food assistance payments and poor weather in March and April. “We believe the macro headwinds have had a disproportionate impact on our core customer,” chief executive Jeff Owen said. “We continue to see signs of increasing financial strain on our customers as they seek affordable options, including increased reliance on private brands and items at or below the $1 price point.”

Same-store sales, which strip out the effects of new store openings, increased only 1.6 per cent in the quarter. Owen said on a call with investors that same-store sales declined 2 per cent in April, with the weak trend continuing into May. Dollar General cut capital spending plans for the fiscal year and will only open 990 new stores instead of the previously planned 1,050. The company now expects same-store sales growth to be in the range of about 1-2 per cent for the fiscal year, compared with previous expectations between 3 -3.5 per cent. Earnings per diluted share are expected to range from no change to a decline of 8 per cent this year, compared with previous guidance of growth of 4-6 per cent. More