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    Deutsche Post says it agrees wage deal with union to avoid strike

    The offer – which members still need to vote on – would give Deutsche Post’s 160,000 employees in Germany a one-off payment of 3,000 euros over 15 months and raises monthly wages by 340 euros from April 1, 2024, the company said in a statement.That means wages will rise in total by 11.5% on average, with salaries for workers in lower-paid brackets set to increase by more than 20%.The deal could set a new precedent after unions in other sectors in Europe’s largest economy such as the metal and electrical or chemical and pharmaceutical industries recently agreed wage hikes well below inflation.Some 86% of members of the services sector trade union Verdi had voted on Thursday to reject a previous wage offer prompting a new round of negotiating.Brisk inflation and widespread labour shortages are emboldening unions in Germany and elsewhere in Europe to demand double-digit wage hikes this year.Verdi called earlier on Saturday for strikes on March 13 at the country’s northern airports, including Berlin, which it said would likely cause longer queues for passengers and flight cancellations.German consumer prices rose by 9.3% on the year in February. More

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    Fed’s heavy hand needs stopping as SVB becomes fatal victim of aggressive hikes

    Investing.com — The Federal Reserve’s fingerprints are all over the dramatic collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and some are calling on the central bank to put further rate hikes on ice as debate heats up on whether a potential banking crisis looms.“Absolutely the Fed should pause [rate hikes],” Will Rhind, CEO and Founder of GraniteShares told Investing.com’s Yasin Ebrahim in an interview Friday.Following the news that SVB Financial Group (NASDAQ:SIVB) had gone bust, investors reined in their bets on a 50-basis-point rate hike in March to 40% from about 80% seen earlier this week, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.“There was always going to be a consequence to raising rates this fast and this high, and people didn’t necessarily know what the consequence would be. “The Silicon Valley Bank is the first thing that has broken, and it’s a direct consequence of rising rates,” Rhind added.SVB – A victim of the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes?The final days of SVB will go down in history as one of the fastest bank runs on record. In just 24 hours, the Silicon Valley Bank saw rapid deposit outflows of $42 billion on Thursday and quickly found itself in a game of catch-up that it ultimately lost after failing to sell assets fast enough to meet withdrawals.But the bank’s problems had a much longer shelf life than just a few days. It was many months in the making, dating back to early days of the coronavirus pandemic, when tech was in-vogue and firms raised huge sums of cash from venture capitalists.With its deep roots in the tech industry, SVB seemed the obvious partner of choice for many of these cash-rich upstarts and tech firms, who ploughed billions into the bank’s coffers, boosting its deposits.At time when ample liquidity was sloshing around in the economy, driven by ultra-low interest rates and fiscal stimulus meant SVB struggled to lend it all out. The California-based lender instead decided to invest the deposits mostly in U.S. long-term Treasury bonds that allowed it to earn a return, albeit just a few percentage points.This worked well when interest rates were low as the price of the Treasuries, which trade inversely to rates, on its balance sheet remained relative stable, but that all changed. The Fed realised that inflation wasn’t transitory and embarked on its fastest pace of rate hikes in more than four-decades.SVB was now left with a real problem: The price of its bonds, which trade inversely to rates, were falling sharply and it wasn’t too long until it was sitting on a ton of low-yielding assets that were underwater.The bank had huge unrealized losses on securities that needed shifting – and quickly. The lender’s tech-heavy customers were already drawing on their deposits as rising costs and rates started to bite.The lenders solution was to sell its low-yielding long-term bonds and buy short-term bonds that were now boasting much more attractive yields amid a determined Fed keen to push rates to restrictive levels as fast as possible.The bank unveiled this remedy to shareholders in letter, estimating a $1.8 billion loss on the sale of its bond portfolio, and also detailed plans to raise about $2.25 billion in capital to shore up its finances.But the bulk of investors and clients weren’t willing to wait around. Ignoring the call to “stay calm,” from SVB CEO Greg Becker, clients stepped up the pace of withdrawals, leaving the lender staring down the abyss of insolvency.Political Pressure Beckons for Powell?The debate now for investors is whether this is a ‘one-bank issue,’ or something systemic. There is some evidence to suggest there may be more SVBs out there.  Customers Bancorp (NYSE:CUBI), First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) and New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) were among a list of 10 banks, outlined by Morningstar, that are holding unrealized losses and face large hole in their finances if they are forced, as SVB was, to sell.The threat that something systemic could be brewing in the banking system, forcing many regional banks out of business isn’t going to be well received in Washington. And the likely respond may come in the form of intense political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cease rate hikes.“If the response to raising interest rates is putting regional banks out of business, then politically that becomes very tough because a lot of politicians will be putting pressure on the Fed, saying that it is unacceptable, you have to stop,” Rhind said.While market participants have reversed course on a 50-basis-point rate hike, they don’t believe the Fed will throw in the towel on hikes just yet and forecast another 25bps rate hike in March even if the inflation report next week comes in hot.“Even if inflation surprises on the upside next week, we believe that the Fed will ultimately conclude that risks have become more two-sided, and moving in 25bp increments is the most prudent path,” Jefferies said.Still as the debate heats up on whether we’re staring down the barrel of another potential banking crises, there is some shared consensus that the Fed’s heavy hand has played a role in the bust of SVB, resulting in the largest bank failure since the 2008 global financial crisis.“While this episode is not emblematic of a banking crisis, it is emblematic of the financial cracks and unintended consequences to the fastest rate hikes since the 80s,” Wei Li , Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), said in a post on Friday. 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    UK plans 11 billion stg business tax break in budget – Bloomberg News

    Hunt will limit the relief to three years and propose a permanent replacement in the ruling Conservative Party’s manifesto before the next election, the report said.Under this replacement full-expensing regime, companies will continue to save 25 pence on their tax bill for every 1 pound invested, the report said. A previously announced increase in the headline rate of corporation tax, to 25% from 19%, is due to come into force in April. “For the manufacturing industry… those capital allowances work, so I would say, we do want to bring down our effective corporation tax, the total amount people pay,” Hunt said earlier today in a GB News interview, referring to measures which allow companies to offset capital expenditure against their tax bill.Hunt is due to present his budget on Wednesday.($1 = 0.8314 pounds) More

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    Investors expect smaller rate rise amid cooling wages and market fears

    Investors have lowered interest rate expectations in response to a jump in unemployment, cooling wages and anxiety over the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, with most now predicting a 0.25 percentage point increase from the Federal Reserve this month.Just this week, investors were betting that the Fed would crank up the pace of its interest rate rises after a number of strong economic data throughout February. Following testimony from Fed chair Jay Powell to Congress on Wednesday, in which he said the bank was prepared to return to bigger interest rate rises to fight inflation, the chances of a 0.5 percentage point increase in March rose to nearly 80 per cent, using calculations based on fed fund futures cited on Eikon. But by Friday evening, they were at 28 per cent, meaning a 0.25 per cent increase was heavily favoured.The shift followed a mixed monthly employment report from the world’s largest economy. While US employers added 311,000 jobs in February — lower than January, but more than the expected 225,000 — the unemployment rate ticked up for the first time since October. The report also showed that average hourly earnings increased 0.2 per cent versus the 0.3 per cent expected, hinting at less pressure from wages on inflation.“The jobs report is weaker than it appears on the surface. Although the headline number was strong, if you look at the details — the wage growth, average hourly earnings — those figures give the Fed the ability to continue on the 0.25 percentage point path, versus what markets had been expecting a few days ago,” said Greg Davis, chief investment officer at Vanguard.“There has been a significant repricing today — in part because of the jobs number and in part because of Silicon Valley Bank.”The jobs data will be a crucial piece of the Fed’s calculus when it meets on March 21-22. After a series of 0.5 and 0.75 percentage point increases last year, the Fed in February raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. Accelerating the pace would represent a big deviation in Fed policy and would suggest that the peak in interest rates may be far higher than the 5.3 per cent currently being priced in by markets. The shift has not just been in expectations for March, noted Davis. Earlier this week, investors had been pricing a peak in interest rates at nearly 5.7 per cent in September. A peak of 5.3 per cent is now expected in June and between one and two rate cuts priced in by year-end. “The labour market is moderating more slowly than expected,” said Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Bank of America. But he said: “This report does not suggest re-acceleration in the economy. It suggests resilience. That’s a world in which 0.25 percentage point increases in interest rates are appropriate.” Adding to the volatility on Friday was news that Silicon Valley Bank, a California-based bank serving venture capital and tech start-ups, would be shut down by regulators. The crisis at the bank had led to a flight to safety in markets with investors selling bank stocks, and buying up Treasury bonds. The two year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, has fallen by 0.49 percentage points since Wednesday evening. Its move on Friday — roughly 0.3 percentage points — was the biggest one-day fall since 2008. While the problems at Silicon Valley Bank are not thought to be evidence of widespread systemic issues in the bank sector, it has still affected market expectations for the Fed. “SVB is adding some angst to markets,” David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan. “Does the Fed really want to add on when inflation is clearly subdued? There is not a thing in this data today suggesting the Fed should raise by 0.5 percentage points.”Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, added: “When you are draining liquidity from the market — and clearly the Fed is doing that — it affects the shallower, more fragile markets first.”That was evident in the crypto market collapse, said Freund, which took down crypto-focused bank Silvergate this week and is now appearing in places like Silicon Valley Bank, which is more exposed to venture capital. “This may be another indication that the Fed has gone far enough,” said Freund. More

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    Analysis-SVB’s lightning collapse stuns banking industry

    WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – The rapid unraveling of SVB Financial Group has blindsided the banking industry after years of stability.The collapse on Friday, the largest bank failure since the 2009 financial crisis, had a unique set of circumstances but raised questions about hidden weaknesses that could have consequences for customers and employees and potentially highlight issues in other banks.SVB’s plight could lead to a loss of confidence, tougher regulation and investor skepticism about the financial health of smaller banks that were seen as adequately capitalized after regulators forced banks to hold more capital in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, experts said. Sheila Bair, who headed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) during the global financial crisis, said in an interview that bank watchdogs are likely now turning their attention to other banks that may have high amounts of uninsured deposits and unrealized losses, two factors that contributed to SVB’s quick collapse.“These banks that have large amounts of institutional uninsured money…that’s going to be hot money that runs if there’s a sign of trouble,” Bair said. A sequence of events led to SVB’s failure including it selling U.S. Treasuries to lock in funding costs due to expectations of higher rates, resulting in a loss of $1.8 billion. SVB, which did business as Silicon Valley Bank, also had 89% of its $175 billion in deposits uninsured as the end of 2022. The FDIC insures deposits up to $250,000. Investors and customers now face a nervous wait to see if SVB bank finds a buyer quickly. During the 2008 financial crisis, Washington Mutual found a buyer immediately. But for IndyMac, in 2009, it took about eight months. The speed of the SVB crash blindsided observers and stunned markets, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value for U.S. banks in two days. “Banks are opaque, so immediately, we all go ‘wait a minute, how interconnected is this bank to another one,'” said Mayra Rodríguez Valladares, a financial risk consultant who trains bankers and regulators. “Investors and depositors do not want to be the last ones turning out the lights in the room, so they have to leave.”TOUGHER RULESSeveral experts said any ripple effects in the rest of the banking sector may be limited. Larger institutions have more diverse portfolios and deposit clientele than SVB did. SVB also had a high level of reliance on the startup sector. “We do not believe there is contagion risk for the rest of the banking sector,” said David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs an investment research firm. “The deposit base from the major banks is much more diversified than SVB and the big banks are in good financial health.”Jason Ware, chief investment officer for Albion Financial Group, said linkages to the overall banking system are limited but “this situation has perhaps implications for select regional banks with some direct exposure.” Other experts said the failure could bolster efforts by U.S. regulators to tighten rules.The banking sector steered through the COVID-19 pandemic, thanks in part to tougher rules put in place following 2008. However, during President Donald Trump’s administration, some rules were eased. Those easier rules for regional banks are likely to come under greater scrutiny as watchdogs look to ensure they too have enough cushion to weather similar stresses, some regulatory and industry sources said. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a prominent bank critic, tweeted that the bank’s failure “underscores the need for strong rules to protect the financial system.” One area of particular focus could be larger regional banks, which saw some rule relief under the Trump administration. U.S. banking regulators said in October they were considering new requirements on large regional banks, including holding more long-term debt to weather losses.”It does feel like the first place that the market is going to look is to regional banks that don’t have loan diversification,” said Greg Hertrich, head of U.S. depository strategies at Nomura.Another requirement that could garner more attention, industry sources said, was expanding which banks are required to account for the market value of held securities. That requirement currently only applies to banks with over $250 billion in assets, but could grow to include other firms. On Monday, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg warned bankers gathered in Washington that firms are facing higher levels of unrealized losses, as rapid interest rate increases have driven down the value of longer-term securities.“The good news about this issue is that banks are generally in a strong financial condition… On the other hand, unrealized losses weaken a bank’s future ability to meet unexpected liquidity needs,” said Gruenberg, three days before SVB announced its need to raise funds. More

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    Can the United Farm Workers of California Rise Again?

    Veronica Mota marched under the sweltering sun, hoisting a cloth banner of Our Lady of Guadalupe above her head for miles.“Sí, se puede,” she chanted in unison with dozens of other farmworkers, who waved U.S. and Mexican flags as they walked along two-lane roads lined by dense orange groves in the Central Valley of California.The banner, flags and rallying cry — “Yes, we can” — echoed back more than half a century to when Cesar Chavez, a co-founder of the United Farm Workers union, led agricultural workers on a pilgrimage along a similar route to meet lawmakers in Sacramento.“We are a legacy of Cesar Chavez,” said Ms. Mota, 47, who, when blisters began to form on her feet during the 24-day trek in August, gathered strength by thinking of how the march in the 1960s led to groundbreaking farmworker reforms and propelled the U.F.W. to national prominence.“We can achieve what we want,” Ms. Mota said.What the farmworkers wanted last summer was for Gov. Gavin Newsom to sign into law a bill that they argued would make it easier and less intimidating for workers to vote in union elections — a key step, they believed, in rebuilding the size and influence of a now far less prolific U.F.W. But changing a rule is not the same as changing the game. The question now is whether the U.F.W. can show it has not irretrievably lost its organizing touch and can regain the ability to mobilize public opinion on its behalf as it did under Mr. Chavez.The union is a shadow of what it was decades ago. Membership hovers around 5,500 farmworkers, less than 2 percent of the state’s agricultural work force, compared with 60,000 in the 1970s. In the same period, the number of growers covered by U.F.W. contracts has fallen to 22 from about 150. The march last summer stood as a reckoning of sorts for a union desperate to regain its relevance.California’s fields provide about half of the produce grown in the United States for domestic consumption.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesFarmworkers at an orange grove outside Fresno.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesU.F.W. officials say they have secured contracts focusing on health coverage.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesLabor organizing has rebounded nationwide in the last few years, with unions winning elections at an Amazon warehouse on Staten Island and at least 275 Starbucks stores, and among white-collar workers in the tech and media industries. But in California’s fields, which supply about half of the produce grown in the United States for the domestic market, such efforts have found little traction.It has been more than five years since the U.F.W. mounted an organizing drive and election petition in the state — at Premiere Raspberries in Watsonville. The U.F.W. unionization vote succeeded, but the company refused to negotiate a contract and in 2020 announced plans to shut down and lay off more than 300 workers.Ms. Mota, who has worked seasonal jobs around the state for two decades, has seen her wages drop by about $6,000 over the last several years. She is now earning around $15,000 a year. She said that on farms without union contracts, bosses sometimes make veiled threats about cutting hours, refuse to give workers breaks in 100-plus degree weather and turn a blind eye to dangerous conditions.“Where we do not have a union contract, there is no respect,” she said in Spanish on a recent morning from her ranch-style home in the farming town of Madera.But the bill backed by Ms. Mota, which Mr. Newsom signed into law after the marchers arrived in Sacramento, has fueled a cautious optimism. Backers say the ability to more freely organize will help them gain more influence.“There is new energy, new legislation and attention from the public in terms of workers’ rights,” said Christian Paiz, a professor of ethnic studies at the University of California, Berkeley, who has researched farm labor in the state. “We could be on the front lines of a renaissance.”The Shadow of Cesar ChavezFarmworkers have, for generations and by design, existed on the fringes of the American work force.The National Labor Relations Act of 1935 excluded farm and domestic workers from federal protections — a decision, rooted in racism, that ensured that the Black, Latino and Asian people whose work opportunities were largely limited to those two industries were not covered.But by the 1960s, momentum for change was building.Farm workers on their march from Delano to Sacramento in 1966.Jon Lewis/Beinecke Rare Book and Manuscript Library, Yale UniversityMr. Chavez, who was a farm laborer picking avocados and peas before becoming a grass-roots organizer, teamed up with Dolores Huerta, a young workers’ rights activist from the Central Valley, and in 1962 they founded the National Farm Workers Association. It became the U.F.W.Labor Organizing and Union DrivesA New Inquiry?: A committee led by Senator Bernie Sanders will hold a vote to open an investigation into federal labor law violations by major corporations and subpoena Howard Schultz, the chief executive of Starbucks, as the first witness.Whitney Museum: After more than a year of bargaining, the cultural institution and its employees are moving forward with a deal that will significantly raise pay and improve job security.Mining Strike: Hundreds of coal miners in Alabama have been told by their union that they can start returning to work before a contract deal has been reached, bringing an end to one of the longest mining strikes in U.S. history.Gag Rules: The National Labor Relations Board has ruled that it is generally illegal for companies to offer severance agreements that require confidentiality and nondisparagement.Three years later, it was a key force behind the Delano grape workers’ strike, in which thousands of Mexican and Filipino farmworkers walked off their jobs, demanding raises from $1.25 to $1.40 an hour, as well as elections that could pave the way for unionization.As the striking farmworkers made their way along the 335-mile trek in 1966, which started in Delano, the group grew steadily, and other unions began to pledge their support.In the Bay Area, longshoremen had refused to load shipments of grapes that hadn’t been picked by unionized workers and, before long, a statewide pressure campaign had become a national one.Weeks after the march began, a lawyer for Schenley Industries, a large Central Valley grape grower that was a target of the boycott, contacted Mr. Chavez, and the company soon agreed to negotiate a contract. It officially recognized the U.F.W., making it the first major corporation to acknowledge a farm union.The grape workers’ strike stretched into the summer of 1970, when widespread consumer boycotts forced major growers to sign on to collective bargaining agreements between the union and several thousand workers.In the years that followed, Mr. Chavez forged a relationship with Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, and helped champion the California Agricultural Labor Relations Act of 1975, which established the right to collective bargaining for farmworkers and created a board to enforce the act and arbitrate labor fights between workers and growers. It was the first law in the country guaranteeing protections to farm workers.Cesar Chavez, center, leader of the National Farm Workers Association, outside a farm in 1966, with supporters bearing signs proclaiming “Strike.” The association was a predecessor of the United Farm Workers.Paul Fusco/Magnum PhotosBut the union’s gains soon began to erode. Mr. Brown’s Republican successor, George Deukmejian, and his appointees made changes to the farm labor board in the 1980s and cut funding, arguing that the adjustments were necessary to correct an “easily perceived bias” in favor of farm workers and the U.F.W. and against growers. And even when the union has won elections, it has often faced legal challenges from growers that can drag on for years.The law that Mr. Newsom signed last year, Assembly Bill 2183, was the union’s biggest legislative victory in years. It paved the way for farmworkers to vote in union elections without in-person election sites. For years, U.F.W. officials argued that dwindling membership numbers stemmed from fears about voting in person at sites often held on properties owned by the growers.The bill faced opposition from growers, who contended that the measure would allow union organizers to unfairly influence the process. Mr. Newsom initially voiced reticence, but signed the measure into law after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Biden publicly pushed him to do so.“In the state with the largest population of farmworkers, the least we owe them is an easier path to make a free and fair choice to organize a union,” Mr. Biden said at the time.Supporters of the measure highlight how the demographics of farmworkers have changed over the years. In the 1970s, under Mr. Chavez, many farmworkers were U.S. citizens, but migration from Mexico and Central America in the decades that followed created a work force composed primarily of undocumented workers. Because they lack immigration papers, supporters say, they are especially vulnerable. (Undocumented workers can be covered by labor agreements.)In signing the measure, Mr. Newsom and the U.F.W. agreed to support follow-up compromise legislation that would guard farmworker confidentiality during elections and place limits on card-check voting, a method in which employees sign cards in favor of unionizing.‘We Are Ignored’Last summer, as she marched past vineyards and groves of mandarin oranges, Ms. Mota thought of the harvest cycle that has defined much of her life.She reflected on the dormant season, in December and January, when she prunes pistachio and almond trees, and the rainy months, when it’s sometimes hard to find work. But then comes the prosperous citrus and grape harvests, through the spring and the fall, which always make her think of the families who will eventually toast with wine squeezed from the fruit she plucked from the vine.“I love for my hands to harvest a fruit and then seeing those fruits and vegetables in the restaurant,” Ms. Mota said.U.F.W. supporters marched last year to urge Gov. Gavin Newsom to sign a bill that would make it easier for workers to vote in union elections.Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle, via Associated PressShe thought, too, about the invisibility and dangers of her work — the tiny teeth marks etched into her leather boot by a snake bite, the molehill where she badly sprained her ankle, the co-worker airlifted to San Francisco with injuries.“We are ignored,” she said.Still, she didn’t feel that way during the march, where in many towns people greeted them with snacks, Gatorade and full meals. While the group was in Stockton, an inland port city, Ms. Huerta, now 92, stood before the crowd wearing a baseball cap emblazoned with the words, “Sí se puede.”“You all have made me so proud,” she told them.Ms. Huerta, who helped negotiate the first farmworker contract with Schenley, left U.F.W. leadership more than two decades ago to pursue other causes. But in an interview, she said the need for unionization remained as high as it was when she helped start the union.“Farmworkers wanted the support and still want the support,” said Ms. Huerta, who attributed the dearth of contracts to a refusal by growers to bargain in good faith.Despite setbacks in recent decades, U.F.W. officials say they have continued to secure contracts that focus on health care benefits, wage increases and cultivating a respectful culture between farmworkers and employees. At Monterey Mushrooms, which has operated under a contract since the 1980s, U.F.W. officials say the average annual income for a mushroom picker is $45,000 and includes vacation time and a pension. (The statewide average for farmworkers is between $20,000 and $25,000 a year, according to the U.S. Labor Department.)“With a union contract, workers are educated about their rights and empowered to defend them,” said Teresa Romero, the union’s president.Issues might vary from farm to farm, Ms. Romero said. “In one workplace it may be low wages, in another it may be unsafe conditions, in still another it may be the workplace culture — having to pay bribes or endure sexual harassment to get work or having a particular supervisor who is racist or cruel,” she said. “We understand the immense risks that workers are taking when speaking up on the job; it takes courage for workers to form their union.”Dolores Huerta, a founder of the U.F.W., at a rally in the 1970s.Cathy Murphy/Getty ImagesMs. Romero said she was confident that the new state law — along with a streamlined federal process to protect workers involved in labor disputes surrounding immigration threats from employers — would translate into more bargaining power and more contracts.A Question of StrategySome labor watchers are skeptical of the union’s ability to reinvigorate itself.Miriam Pawel, an author who has written extensively about the union and Mr. Chavez, said the U.F.W.’s decline reflected a shortfall in organizing efforts in the communities where farmworkers live.“It’s evolved more into an advocacy organization and walked away from the more difficult work of organizing,” Ms. Pawel said. Referring to the 1975 labor relations act, she added, “They have the most favorable labor law in the country and have barely taken advantage.”Ms. Pawel cited a 2016 state law mandating that agricultural employers pay overtime if people worked more than eight hours in a day. The union lobbied for the measure, but growers warned that they couldn’t afford to pay overtime and would adjust schedules to avoid doing so. The new overtime rule has been phased in over the years, and some farmworkers have voiced anger about losing hours.“If the union were stronger in the fields, and at organizing, it could have won elections and demanded better overtime provisions in contracts,” Ms. Pawel said.Ms. Romero pushed back against such criticism, arguing that, until Mr. Newsom signed A.B. 2183 in September, many farmworkers had justified fears that, if they sought unionization, their bosses would fire them or even try to get them deported.Indeed, a report by the University of California, Merced, Community and Labor Center found that 36 percent of farmworkers said they would not file a report against their employer for failing to comply with workplace safety rules and that 64 percent cited fear of employer retaliation or job loss.And since the bill’s passage, the Farm Employers Labor Service, a trade group that staunchly opposed the law, has placed advertisements on Spanish-language radio stations, warning about what it means to be in a union. In one ad, a man shouts: “Signing a union petition can lead to the union stealing 3 percent of your salary! Do not let them!”Those messages deeply concern Ms. Romero.“Filing for an election when workers are not protected from genuine risks of retaliation will only lead already poor people into further hardship,” she said. “This is the implicit threat that the growers’ power depends on.”‘They Just Want to Work’Joe Del Bosque at his melon farm in Firebaugh, Calif. He has never had a union contract and plans to keep it that way.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesMany California growers say they can be better bosses without unions.On a recent afternoon off Interstate 5 in the small city of Firebaugh, Joe Del Bosque stared out at bare fields on the melon farm he has owned since 1985. A thick fog hung over the area, and the ground was puddled from rain water. It was the quiet season on the farm, where he employs more than 100 farmworkers annually.Mr. Del Bosque said that when he was a boy, his parents, legal U.S. residents, traveled from a town near the California-Mexico border to the Central Valley to pick melons every summer. As a farm owner, he has never had a union contract, and aims to keep it that way.He provides his employees with good conditions and fair wages, he said, without their having to pay union dues. “From my experience, workers who are moving around from season to season do not want the extra hands involved,” he said of the union. “They just want to work.”He said he had little trouble finding field hands, including migrants who move from farm to farm with each season. And he noted that in the Salinas Valley — closer to the coast, where housing is more expensive — many growers rely on H-2A visas, which let them bring workers, often from Mexico, for just a few months of the year.That impermanence, he said, works against the U.F.W. “If the workers are here only a few months a year and then leave the state, how are you going to organize?” he said.Mr. Del Bosque said that he respected the U.F.W.’s history and the groundwork of Mr. Chavez and Ms. Huerta, but that he opposed A.B. 2183. The law, he contends, will allow the U.F.W. to unfairly sway farmworkers at their kitchen tables and behind closed doors.“That’s the intimidation factor,” Mr. Del Bosque said.A New Spirit of ActivismAsuncion Ponce began harvesting grapes in the late 1980s. He says bosses on unionized farms “don’t mess with you.”Mark Abramson for The New York TimesWhile the impact of the law remains unclear, it has buoyed the spirits of some farmworkers.Asuncion Ponce started harvesting grapes along the rolling green hills of the Central Valley in the late 1980s. Through the decades, Mr. Ponce has worked on several farms with U.F.W. contracts. Bosses on those farms, he said, seemed aware that if they harassed or mistreated workers, the union would step in.“They don’t mess with you any more,” he said, “because they think there could be problems.”Even so, he has seen his financial security decline. He averaged $20,000 a year in the 1990s and 2000s, he said, but these days he brings in around $10,000 a year picking grapes and pruning pistachio trees. His eight-hour shifts are no longer supplemented by overtime, as growers have cut hours — partly as a result of the overtime bill U.F.W. leaders supported.Occasionally, Mr. Ponce said, he relied on third-party contractors, who growers sometimes employ, to find him available work. But he said he was optimistic that with the new legislation he would land a full-time job on a union farm.On a recent evening, the 66-year-old sipped coffee and decompressed after a shift at a farm outside of Fresno. His feet ached and his flannel shirt was stained with fertilizer, but he is happy that his job lets him spend all day outdoors — a passion born in his hometown in the Mexican state of Puebla, where he harvested corn and anise.He smiled softly under his white mustache as he spoke about the legacy of Mr. Chavez, which inspired him to join for several legs of the pilgrimage last summer.“I marched for many reasons,” he said in Spanish. “So we are not as harassed and mistreated as we are now in the fields, so benefits and better treatment come our way.”For Ms. Mota, joining the march helped awaken a new spirit of activism.Over the years, she said, she felt afraid to talk about unionizing at work, but now she tells any colleagues who will listen about the advantages she sees: the ability to negotiate a better salary, benefits and a respect for seniority.Her viewpoint was shaped in her early years as a farmworker. “Throughout the years I have realized that we are marginalized,” she said. “They don’t value us.”Once, she said, she watched as a farmer grabbed a knife used to harvest cantaloupe and put it to the cheek of another worker. He glared into the farmworker’s eyes, she said, and called the workers his slaves.“You feel humiliated,” she said, fighting back tears.She is convinced that having a strong union is the only answer. “We deserve a dignified life in this country,” she said.“Throughout the years I have realized that we are marginalized,” Veronica Mota said.Mark Abramson for The New York Times More

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    India, Australia aim to boost critical mineral trade in broader deal – ministers

    “India is short of critical minerals. Australia has a large reserve of critical minerals that go into (electric vehicle)batteries, which isn’t fully processed or manufactured presently,” Goyal told a news conference after meeting Australia’s trade and tourism minister, Don Farrell.Critical minerals, along with space technology and opportunities in the digital sector, will be key areas of the planned deal, Farrell said.The meeting followed a summit in New Delhi on Friday between the Asia nations’ prime ministers, Narendra Modi and Anthony Albanese.India and Australia hope to complete by year’s end an ambitious, comprehensive trade deal that has been stuck in negotiations for over a decade. It would expand on a free trade deal the two signed last year, the first between India and a developed country in a decade. The Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement came into effect in December, removing duties on 96% of Indian exports to Australia and 85% of Australian exports to India. More

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    Li Qiang, Xi confidant, takes reins as China’s premier

    BEIJING (Reuters) -Four years before Li Qiang gained notoriety as the force behind the two-month COVID-19 lockdown of Shanghai, the man who became China’s premier on Saturday worked quietly behind the scenes to drive a bold revamp of the megacity’s sclerotic stock market.Li’s back-channelling – sources said he bypassed the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which lost some of its power under the new set-up – demonstrated what became a reputation for pragmatism as well as close ties with President Xi Jinping.In late 2018, Xi himself announced Shanghai’s new tech-focused STAR Market as well as the pilot of a registration-based IPO system, reforms meant to entice China’s hottest young firms to list locally rather than overseas.”The CSRC was very unhappy,” said a veteran banker close to regulators and Shanghai officials, declining to be named given the sensitivity of the matter.”Li’s relationship with Xi played a role here,” enabling him to present the scheme directly to the central government, without going through the CSRC, the person added.The CSRC did not respond to a request for comment. Previously the Communist Party chief in Shanghai, Li was confirmed as premier during the National People’s Congress, charged with managing the world’s second largest economy. He replaced the retiring Li Keqiang, widely perceived to have been sidelined as Xi tightened his grip on management of the economy. Leadership watchers say Li Qiang’s closeness to Xi is both a strength and a vulnerability: while he has Xi’s trust, he is beholden to his long-time patron.Trey McArver, co-founder of consultancy Trivium China, said Li is likely to be much more powerful than his predecessor. Xi expended significant political capital to get him into the role, given Li’s lack of central government experience and the Shanghai lockdown, McArver said.”Officials know that Li Qiang is Xi Jinping’s guy,” he said. “He clearly thinks that Li Qiang is a very competent person and he has put him in this position because he trusts him and he expects a lot of him.”Li, 63, did not respond to questions sent to China’s State Council Information Office.PRACTICAL PRAGMATISTA career bureaucrat, Li was revealed as the pick for China’s number two role in October when Xi unveiled a leadership line-up stacked with loyalists.At that time, Li had been known for overseeing the harrowing COVID lockdown earlier last year of Shanghai’s 25 million people, which shut the city’s economy and left psychological scars among its residents. That made him a target of anger but did nothing to derail his promotion. Li was also instrumental in pushing for China’s unexpectedly sudden end to its zero-COVID policy late last year, Reuters reported this month.People who have interacted with Li say they found him practical-minded, an effective bureaucratic operator and supportive of the private sector – a stance that would be expected in someone whose career put him in charge of some of China’s most economically dynamic regions.As Communist Party chief between 2002 to 2004 in his home city of Wenzhou, a hotbed of entrepreneurialism, Li came across as open-minded and willing to listen, said Zhou Dewen, who represented small and midsize enterprises in the city.”He took a liberal approach of granting private companies default access to enter the market, except when explicitly banned by law, rather then the traditional approach of keeping private companies out by default,” said Zhou.Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council and a former U.S. official, said Li sought to level the playing field for foreign businesses, pointing to the speed with which U.S. carmaker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) was able to get its Shanghai factory there operational in 2019.”Clearly nothing got in the way once a decision was made. There was a clarity of a kind in his decision making, an authority, and that really helps,” said Allen, describing Li as comfortable in his own skin.Still, several observers caution against putting too much weight on Li’s experience in a business hub such as Shanghai, since Xi has steadily tightened Communist Party control and taken the economy in a more statist direction.”Now Li is a national leader, working under a market-sceptic boss, and he has to balance growth with a range of social, technological, and geopolitical goals,” said Neil Thomas, senior analyst at Eurasia.NO WALLFLOWEREven by the opaque standards of Chinese politics, there is little public information about Li’s background or personal life.Born in Ruian county in what is now Wenzhou, the 17-year-old Li went to work in 1976 at an irrigation station in his hometown, a desirable job in what turned out to be the final year of Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution.Li entered Zhejiang Agricultural University in 1978, the year that campuses were reopened in China and competition for places was fierce. He received master’s degrees from the central party school in Beijing and Hong Kong Polytechnic University.It was in Zhejiang, home to some of China’s biggest private companies – where Xi was provincial party secretary and Li was his chief of staff between 2004 and 2007 – that the two men would have built their personal bond.American author Robert Lawrence Kuhn, who met Li and Xi together in 2005 and 2006, said the two shared an easy rapport.”Unlike most other staffers of top leaders, Li was no wallflower,” Kuhn told Reuters.”In the presence of Xi, he felt comfortable and confident enough to put himself forward to engage me, which tells me he is not worried his boss might think he is trying to steal his limelight,” Kuhn said.However, leadership watchers said there are limits to what Li will be able to do.”Li can make some repairs here and there, but he won’t tear down the wall and build something new,” said Chen Daoyin, former associate professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, and now a commentator based in Chile. 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