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    Biden challenges Republicans with budget that raises taxes, sets up 2024 run

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden will travel to the swing-state of Pennsylvania on Thursday to unveil a federal budget plan laden with spending proposals and higher taxes on the wealthy that will form a blueprint for his expected 2024 re-election bid.Biden’s proposal, which resurrects many items stripped from last year’s budget plan, faces even stiffer opposition in Congress this year, after Republicans won control of the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections. It comes in direct defiance of Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s threat to block an increase in the $31.4 trillion limit on federal borrowing unless Biden agrees to rein in federal spending. Speaking at a Philadelphia union hall, the Democratic president will highlight plans to cut the nation’s deficit by nearly $3 trillion over 10 years by raising taxes on those earning more than $400,000 a year and ending corporate tax breaks enacted in 2017 under then President Donald Trump.A White House official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, contrasted Biden’s vision with that of Republicans, saying the budget would reduce the U.S. deficit while lowering costs for families.It also proposes raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, the official said, and “tackles wasteful special interest giveaways.”Biden’s budget plan proposes funding higher outlays and closing the deficit by imposing a 25% minimum tax on billionaires and doubling the capital gains tax from 20%, the White House official said. Biden has also said the budget will propose quadrupling a 1% stock buyback tax, while going after corporations and rich individuals who skip paying taxes.Biden, will promise to protect those earning less than $400,000 a year from tax increases and safeguard Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. At the same time, he will offer relief to working families by investing billions to ease the cost of childcare and ensure free preschool for all of the country’s 4 million 4-year-olds, and promises to increase rail safety.White House officials say that lowering the cost of childcare will boost the economy and allow more women to return to work. Such proposals also enjoy strong support and could help boost Biden’s low approval ratings as he gears up announce his reelection bid this spring.Republicans say Biden’s spending during his first two years in office drove inflation to nearly 40-year highs last summer and are already readying $150 billion in cuts to non-defense discretionary programs – including about $25 billion from the Department Education and cuts in foreign aid and programs aimed at preventing sexually transmitted diseases – that they say would save $1.5 trillion over a decade.Is there common ground? “Very little, very little,” Republican Representative Ben Cline told Reuters. “He doesn’t want to cut any spending, he just wants to raise taxes.” More

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    European stocks slip as investors await US economic data

    European stocks fell at the open on Thursday as investors looked ahead to the release of crucial economic data that help determine if the Federal Reserve will combat lingering inflation with faster and higher interest rate rises.The region-wide Stoxx 600 fell 0.4 per cent, the German Dax 0.1 per cent, and the French Cac 40 0.4 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 lost 0.6 per cent.At a two-day hearing in Washington, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell said that the US central bank was willing to return to more aggressive interest rate rises but stressed that “no decision” had been made yet.Stock and bond markets have begun to price in a half percentage point increase in March but are awaiting critical economic data like Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers, which will reveal if the economy has started to cool.In January, 517,000 jobs were unexpectedly created, spurring investor concern about the extent of rate hikes and hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.“Good macro news equals terrible market news,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro and multi-asset portfolio manager at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. He added that a high reading will “confirm that more is needed to curb dynamism in the labour market. The reason we saw big numbers last month was because of service job creation which is slower to react than industry. When it will is hard to say.”US futures contracts for the blue-chip S&P 500 slipped by 0.3 per cent, while those tracking the Nasdaq fell 0.5 per cent.Yields on two-year US Treasuries, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, fell 0.02 percentage points to 5 per cent, while 10-year notes rose 0.01 percentage points to 3.99 per cent. Yields on 10-year German Bunds rose 0.05 percentage points to 2.68 per cent.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six peer currencies fell 0.2 per cent.In Asia markets were muted, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index falling by 0.6 per cent and China’s CSI 300 dropping 0.4 per cent. This followed weaker than expected Chinese inflation data, with consumer prices up 1 per cent and producer prices down 1.4 per cent — its lowest reading since November 2020.In commodities, Brent crude fell 0.3 per cent to $82.40 while WTI, the US equivalent, was down 0.4 per cent to $76.37. More

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    Why Poverty Persists in America

    In the past 50 years, scientists have mapped the entire human genome and eradicated smallpox. Here in the United States, infant-mortality rates and deaths from heart disease have fallen by roughly 70 percent, and the average American has gained almost a decade of life. Climate change was recognized as an existential threat. The internet was invented.On the problem of poverty, though, there has been no real improvement — just a long stasis. As estimated by the federal government’s poverty line, 12.6 percent of the U.S. population was poor in 1970; two decades later, it was 13.5 percent; in 2010, it was 15.1 percent; and in 2019, it was 10.5 percent. To graph the share of Americans living in poverty over the past half-century amounts to drawing a line that resembles gently rolling hills. The line curves slightly up, then slightly down, then back up again over the years, staying steady through Democratic and Republican administrations, rising in recessions and falling in boom years.What accounts for this lack of progress? It cannot be chalked up to how the poor are counted: Different measures spit out the same embarrassing result. When the government began reporting the Supplemental Poverty Measure in 2011, designed to overcome many of the flaws of the Official Poverty Measure, including not accounting for regional differences in costs of living and government benefits, the United States officially gained three million more poor people. Possible reductions in poverty from counting aid like food stamps and tax benefits were more than offset by recognizing how low-income people were burdened by rising housing and health care costs.The American poor have access to cheap, mass-produced goods, as every American does. But that doesn’t mean they can access what matters most.Any fair assessment of poverty must confront the breathtaking march of material progress. But the fact that standards of living have risen across the board doesn’t mean that poverty itself has fallen. Forty years ago, only the rich could afford cellphones. But cellphones have become more affordable over the past few decades, and now most Americans have one, including many poor people. This has led observers like Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill, senior fellows at the Brookings Institution, to assert that “access to certain consumer goods,” like TVs, microwave ovens and cellphones, shows that “the poor are not quite so poor after all.”No, it doesn’t. You can’t eat a cellphone. A cellphone doesn’t grant you stable housing, affordable medical and dental care or adequate child care. In fact, as things like cellphones have become cheaper, the cost of the most necessary of life’s necessities, like health care and rent, has increased. From 2000 to 2022 in the average American city, the cost of fuel and utilities increased by 115 percent. The American poor, living as they do in the center of global capitalism, have access to cheap, mass-produced goods, as every American does. But that doesn’t mean they can access what matters most. As Michael Harrington put it 60 years ago: “It is much easier in the United States to be decently dressed than it is to be decently housed, fed or doctored.”Why, then, when it comes to poverty reduction, have we had 50 years of nothing? When I first started looking into this depressing state of affairs, I assumed America’s efforts to reduce poverty had stalled because we stopped trying to solve the problem. I bought into the idea, popular among progressives, that the election of President Ronald Reagan (as well as that of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom) marked the ascendancy of market fundamentalism, or “neoliberalism,” a time when governments cut aid to the poor, lowered taxes and slashed regulations. If American poverty persisted, I thought, it was because we had reduced our spending on the poor. But I was wrong.A homeless mother with her children in St. Louis in 1987.Eli Reed/Magnum PhotosReagan expanded corporate power, deeply cut taxes on the rich and rolled back spending on some antipoverty initiatives, especially in housing. But he was unable to make large-scale, long-term cuts to many of the programs that make up the American welfare state. Throughout Reagan’s eight years as president, antipoverty spending grew, and it continued to grow after he left office. Spending on the nation’s 13 largest means-tested programs — aid reserved for Americans who fall below a certain income level — went from $1,015 a person the year Reagan was elected president to $3,419 a person one year into Donald Trump’s administration, a 237 percent increase.Most of this increase was due to health care spending, and Medicaid in particular. But even if we exclude Medicaid from the calculation, we find that federal investments in means-tested programs increased by 130 percent from 1980 to 2018, from $630 to $1,448 per person.“Neoliberalism” is now part of the left’s lexicon, but I looked in vain to find it in the plain print of federal budgets, at least as far as aid to the poor was concerned. There is no evidence that the United States has become stingier over time. The opposite is true.This makes the country’s stalled progress on poverty even more baffling. Decade after decade, the poverty rate has remained flat even as federal relief has surged.If we have more than doubled government spending on poverty and achieved so little, one reason is that the American welfare state is a leaky bucket. Take welfare, for example: When it was administered through the Aid to Families With Dependent Children program, almost all of its funds were used to provide single-parent families with cash assistance. But when President Bill Clinton reformed welfare in 1996, replacing the old model with Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), he transformed the program into a block grant that gives states considerable leeway in deciding how to distribute the money. As a result, states have come up with rather creative ways to spend TANF dollars. Arizona has used welfare money to pay for abstinence-only sex education. Pennsylvania diverted TANF funds to anti-abortion crisis-pregnancy centers. Maine used the money to support a Christian summer camp. Nationwide, for every dollar budgeted for TANF in 2020, poor families directly received just 22 cents.We’ve approached the poverty question by pointing to poor people themselves, when we should have been focusing on exploitation.Labor Organizing and Union DrivesA New Inquiry?: A committee led by Senator Bernie Sanders will hold a vote to open an investigation into federal labor law violations by major corporations and subpoena Howard Schultz, the chief executive of Starbucks, as the first witness.Whitney Museum: After more than a year of bargaining, the cultural institution and its employees are moving forward with a deal that will significantly raise pay and improve job security.Mining Strike: Hundreds of coal miners in Alabama have been told by their union that they can start returning to work before a contract deal has been reached, bringing an end to one of the longest mining strikes in U.S. history.Gag Rules: The National Labor Relations Board has ruled that it is generally illegal for companies to offer severance agreements that require confidentiality and nondisparagement.A fair amount of government aid earmarked for the poor never reaches them. But this does not fully solve the puzzle of why poverty has been so stubbornly persistent, because many of the country’s largest social-welfare programs distribute funds directly to people. Roughly 85 percent of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program budget is dedicated to funding food stamps themselves, and almost 93 percent of Medicaid dollars flow directly to beneficiaries.There are, it would seem, deeper structural forces at play, ones that have to do with the way the American poor are routinely taken advantage of. The primary reason for our stalled progress on poverty reduction has to do with the fact that we have not confronted the unrelenting exploitation of the poor in the labor, housing and financial markets.As a theory of poverty, “exploitation” elicits a muddled response, causing us to think of course and but, no in the same instant. The word carries a moral charge, but social scientists have a fairly coolheaded way to measure exploitation: When we are underpaid relative to the value of what we produce, we experience labor exploitation; when we are overcharged relative to the value of something we purchase, we experience consumer exploitation. For example, if a family paid $1,000 a month to rent an apartment with a market value of $20,000, that family would experience a higher level of renter exploitation than a family who paid the same amount for an apartment with a market valuation of $100,000. When we don’t own property or can’t access credit, we become dependent on people who do and can, which in turn invites exploitation, because a bad deal for you is a good deal for me.Our vulnerability to exploitation grows as our liberty shrinks. Because undocumented workers are not protected by labor laws, more than a third are paid below minimum wage, and nearly 85 percent are not paid overtime. Many of us who are U.S. citizens, or who crossed borders through official checkpoints, would not work for these wages. We don’t have to. If they migrate here as adults, those undocumented workers choose the terms of their arrangement. But just because desperate people accept and even seek out exploitative conditions doesn’t make those conditions any less exploitative. Sometimes exploitation is simply the best bad option.Consider how many employers now get one over on American workers. The United States offers some of the lowest wages in the industrialized world. A larger share of workers in the United States make “low pay” — earning less than two-thirds of median wages — than in any other country belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. According to the group, nearly 23 percent of American workers labor in low-paying jobs, compared with roughly 17 percent in Britain, 11 percent in Japan and 5 percent in Italy. Poverty wages have swollen the ranks of the American working poor, most of whom are 35 or older.One popular theory for the loss of good jobs is deindustrialization, which caused the shuttering of factories and the hollowing out of communities that had sprung up around them. Such a passive word, “deindustrialization” — leaving the impression that it just happened somehow, as if the country got deindustrialization the way a forest gets infested by bark beetles. But economic forces framed as inexorable, like deindustrialization and the acceleration of global trade, are often helped along by policy decisions like the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, which made it easier for companies to move their factories to Mexico and contributed to the loss of hundreds of thousands of American jobs. The world has changed, but it has changed for other economies as well. Yet Belgium and Canada and many other countries haven’t experienced the kind of wage stagnation and surge in income inequality that the United States has.Those countries managed to keep their unions. We didn’t. Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, nearly a third of all U.S. workers carried union cards. These were the days of the United Automobile Workers, led by Walter Reuther, once savagely beaten by Ford’s brass-knuckle boys, and of the mighty American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations that together represented around 15 million workers, more than the population of California at the time.In their heyday, unions put up a fight. In 1970 alone, 2.4 million union members participated in work stoppages, wildcat strikes and tense standoffs with company heads. The labor movement fought for better pay and safer working conditions and supported antipoverty policies. Their efforts paid off for both unionized and nonunionized workers, as companies like Eastman Kodak were compelled to provide generous compensation and benefits to their workers to prevent them from organizing. By one estimate, the wages of nonunionized men without a college degree would be 8 percent higher today if union strength remained what it was in the late 1970s, a time when worker pay climbed, chief-executive compensation was reined in and the country experienced the most economically equitable period in modern history.It is important to note that Old Labor was often a white man’s refuge. In the 1930s, many unions outwardly discriminated against Black workers or segregated them into Jim Crow local chapters. In the 1960s, unions like the Brotherhood of Railway and Steamship Clerks and the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America enforced segregation within their ranks. Unions harmed themselves through their self-defeating racism and were further weakened by a changing economy. But organized labor was also attacked by political adversaries. As unions flagged, business interests sensed an opportunity. Corporate lobbyists made deep inroads in both political parties, beginning a public-relations campaign that pressured policymakers to roll back worker protections.A national litmus test arrived in 1981, when 13,000 unionized air traffic controllers left their posts after contract negotiations with the Federal Aviation Administration broke down. When the workers refused to return, Reagan fired all of them. The public’s response was muted, and corporate America learned that it could crush unions with minimal blowback. And so it went, in one industry after another.Today almost all private-sector employees (94 percent) are without a union, though roughly half of nonunion workers say they would organize if given the chance. They rarely are. Employers have at their disposal an arsenal of tactics designed to prevent collective bargaining, from hiring union-busting firms to telling employees that they could lose their jobs if they vote yes. Those strategies are legal, but companies also make illegal moves to block unions, like disciplining workers for trying to organize or threatening to close facilities. In 2016 and 2017, the National Labor Relations Board charged 42 percent of employers with violating federal law during union campaigns. In nearly a third of cases, this involved illegally firing workers for organizing.A steelworker on strike in Philadelphia in 1992.Stephen ShamesA protest outside an Amazon facility in San Bernardino, Calif., in 2022.Irfan Khan/Getty ImagesCorporate lobbyists told us that organized labor was a drag on the economy — that once the companies had cleared out all these fusty, lumbering unions, the economy would rev up, raising everyone’s fortunes. But that didn’t come to pass. The negative effects of unions have been wildly overstated, and there is now evidence that unions play a role in increasing company productivity, for example by reducing turnover. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics measures productivity as how efficiently companies turn inputs (like materials and labor) into outputs (like goods and services). Historically, productivity, wages and profits rise and fall in lock step. But the American economy is less productive today than it was in the post-World War II period, when unions were at peak strength. The economies of other rich countries have slowed as well, including those with more highly unionized work forces, but it is clear that diluting labor power in America did not unleash economic growth or deliver prosperity to more people. “We were promised economic dynamism in exchange for inequality,” Eric Posner and Glen Weyl write in their book “Radical Markets.” “We got the inequality, but dynamism is actually declining.”As workers lost power, their jobs got worse. For several decades after World War II, ordinary workers’ inflation-adjusted wages (known as “real wages”) increased by 2 percent each year. But since 1979, real wages have grown by only 0.3 percent a year. Astonishingly, workers with a high school diploma made 2.7 percent less in 2017 than they would have in 1979, adjusting for inflation. Workers without a diploma made nearly 10 percent less.Lousy, underpaid work is not an indispensable, if regrettable, byproduct of capitalism, as some business defenders claim today. (This notion would have scandalized capitalism’s earliest defenders. John Stuart Mill, arch advocate of free people and free markets, once said that if widespread scarcity was a hallmark of capitalism, he would become a communist.) But capitalism is inherently about owners trying to give as little, and workers trying to get as much, as possible. With unions largely out of the picture, corporations have chipped away at the conventional midcentury work arrangement, which involved steady employment, opportunities for advancement and raises and decent pay with some benefits.As the sociologist Gerald Davis has put it: Our grandparents had careers. Our parents had jobs. We complete tasks. Or at least that has been the story of the American working class and working poor.Poor Americans aren’t just exploited in the labor market. They face consumer exploitation in the housing and financial markets as well.There is a long history of slum exploitation in America. Money made slums because slums made money. Rent has more than doubled over the past two decades, rising much faster than renters’ incomes. Median rent rose from $483 in 2000 to $1,216 in 2021. Why have rents shot up so fast? Experts tend to offer the same rote answers to this question. There’s not enough housing supply, they say, and too much demand. Landlords must charge more just to earn a decent rate of return. Must they? How do we know?We need more housing; no one can deny that. But rents have jumped even in cities with plenty of apartments to go around. At the end of 2021, almost 19 percent of rental units in Birmingham, Ala., sat vacant, as did 12 percent of those in Syracuse, N.Y. Yet rent in those areas increased by roughly 14 percent and 8 percent, respectively, over the previous two years. National data also show that rental revenues have far outpaced property owners’ expenses in recent years, especially for multifamily properties in poor neighborhoods. Rising rents are not simply a reflection of rising operating costs. There’s another dynamic at work, one that has to do with the fact that poor people — and particularly poor Black families — don’t have much choice when it comes to where they can live. Because of that, landlords can overcharge them, and they do.A study I published with Nathan Wilmers found that after accounting for all costs, landlords operating in poor neighborhoods typically take in profits that are double those of landlords operating in affluent communities. If down-market landlords make more, it’s because their regular expenses (especially their mortgages and property-tax bills) are considerably lower than those in upscale neighborhoods. But in many cities with average or below-average housing costs — think Buffalo, not Boston — rents in the poorest neighborhoods are not drastically lower than rents in the middle-class sections of town. From 2015 to 2019, median monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the Indianapolis metropolitan area was $991; it was $816 in neighborhoods with poverty rates above 40 percent, just around 17 percent less. Rents are lower in extremely poor neighborhoods, but not by as much as you would think.Evicted rent strikers in Chicago in 1966.Getty ImagesA Maricopa County constable serving an eviction notice in Phoenix in 2020.John Moore/Getty ImagesYet where else can poor families live? They are shut out of homeownership because banks are disinclined to issue small-dollar mortgages, and they are also shut out of public housing, which now has waiting lists that stretch on for years and even decades. Struggling families looking for a safe, affordable place to live in America usually have but one choice: to rent from private landlords and fork over at least half their income to rent and utilities. If millions of poor renters accept this state of affairs, it’s not because they can’t afford better alternatives; it’s because they often aren’t offered any.You can read injunctions against usury in the Vedic texts of ancient India, in the sutras of Buddhism and in the Torah. Aristotle and Aquinas both rebuked it. Dante sent moneylenders to the seventh circle of hell. None of these efforts did much to stem the practice, but they do reveal that the unprincipled act of trapping the poor in a cycle of debt has existed at least as long as the written word. It might be the oldest form of exploitation after slavery. Many writers have depicted America’s poor as unseen, shadowed and forgotten people: as “other” or “invisible.” But markets have never failed to notice the poor, and this has been particularly true of the market for money itself.The deregulation of the banking system in the 1980s heightened competition among banks. Many responded by raising fees and requiring customers to carry minimum balances. In 1977, over a third of banks offered accounts with no service charge. By the early 1990s, only 5 percent did. Big banks grew bigger as community banks shuttered, and in 2021, the largest banks in America charged customers almost $11 billion in overdraft fees. Just 9 percent of account holders paid 84 percent of these fees. Who were the unlucky 9 percent? Customers who carried an average balance of less than $350. The poor were made to pay for their poverty.In 2021, the average fee for overdrawing your account was $33.58. Because banks often issue multiple charges a day, it’s not uncommon to overdraw your account by $20 and end up paying $200 for it. Banks could (and do) deny accounts to people who have a history of overextending their money, but those customers also provide a steady revenue stream for some of the most powerful financial institutions in the world.Every year: almost $11 billion in overdraft fees, $1.6 billion in check-cashing fees and up to $8.2 billion in payday-loan fees.According to the F.D.I.C., one in 19 U.S. households had no bank account in 2019, amounting to more than seven million families. Compared with white families, Black and Hispanic families were nearly five times as likely to lack a bank account. Where there is exclusion, there is exploitation. Unbanked Americans have created a market, and thousands of check-cashing outlets now serve that market. Check-cashing stores generally charge from 1 to 10 percent of the total, depending on the type of check. That means that a worker who is paid $10 an hour and takes a $1,000 check to a check-cashing outlet will pay $10 to $100 just to receive the money he has earned, effectively losing one to 10 hours of work. (For many, this is preferable to the less-predictable exploitation by traditional banks, with their automatic overdraft fees. It’s the devil you know.) In 2020, Americans spent $1.6 billion just to cash checks. If the poor had a costless way to access their own money, over a billion dollars would have remained in their pockets during the pandemic-induced recession.Poverty can mean missed payments, which can ruin your credit. But just as troublesome as bad credit is having no credit score at all, which is the case for 26 million adults in the United States. Another 19 million possess a credit history too thin or outdated to be scored. Having no credit (or bad credit) can prevent you from securing an apartment, buying insurance and even landing a job, as employers are increasingly relying on credit checks during the hiring process. And when the inevitable happens — when you lose hours at work or when the car refuses to start — the payday-loan industry steps in.For most of American history, regulators prohibited lending institutions from charging exorbitant interest on loans. Because of these limits, banks kept interest rates between 6 and 12 percent and didn’t do much business with the poor, who in a pinch took their valuables to the pawnbroker or the loan shark. But the deregulation of the banking sector in the 1980s ushered the money changers back into the temple by removing strict usury limits. Interest rates soon reached 300 percent, then 500 percent, then 700 percent. Suddenly, some people were very interested in starting businesses that lent to the poor. In recent years, 17 states have brought back strong usury limits, capping interest rates and effectively prohibiting payday lending. But the trade thrives in most places. The annual percentage rate for a two-week $300 loan can reach 460 percent in California, 516 percent in Wisconsin and 664 percent in Texas.Roughly a third of all payday loans are now issued online, and almost half of borrowers who have taken out online loans have had lenders overdraw their bank accounts. The average borrower stays indebted for five months, paying $520 in fees to borrow $375. Keeping people indebted is, of course, the ideal outcome for the payday lender. It’s how they turn a $15 profit into a $150 one. Payday lenders do not charge high fees because lending to the poor is risky — even after multiple extensions, most borrowers pay up. Lenders extort because they can.Every year: almost $11 billion in overdraft fees, $1.6 billion in check-cashing fees and up to $8.2 billion in payday-loan fees. That’s more than $55 million in fees collected predominantly from low-income Americans each day — not even counting the annual revenue collected by pawnshops and title loan services and rent-to-own schemes. When James Baldwin remarked in 1961 how “extremely expensive it is to be poor,” he couldn’t have imagined these receipts.“Predatory inclusion” is what the historian Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor calls it in her book “Race for Profit,” describing the longstanding American tradition of incorporating marginalized people into housing and financial schemes through bad deals when they are denied good ones. The exclusion of poor people from traditional banking and credit systems has forced them to find alternative ways to cash checks and secure loans, which has led to a normalization of their exploitation. This is all perfectly legal, after all, and subsidized by the nation’s richest commercial banks. The fringe banking sector would not exist without lines of credit extended by the conventional one. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase bankroll payday lenders like Advance America and Cash America. Everybody gets a cut.Poverty isn’t simply the condition of not having enough money. It’s the condition of not having enough choice and being taken advantage of because of that. When we ignore the role that exploitation plays in trapping people in poverty, we end up designing policy that is weak at best and ineffective at worst. For example, when legislation lifts incomes at the bottom without addressing the housing crisis, those gains are often realized instead by landlords, not wholly by the families the legislation was intended to help. A 2019 study conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found that when states raised minimum wages, families initially found it easier to pay rent. But landlords quickly responded to the wage bumps by increasing rents, which diluted the effect of the policy. This happened after the pandemic rescue packages, too: When wages began to rise in 2021 after worker shortages, rents rose as well, and soon people found themselves back where they started or worse.A boy in North Philadelphia in 1985.Stephen ShamesA girl in Troy, N.Y., around 2008.Brenda Ann KenneallyAntipoverty programs work. Each year, millions of families are spared the indignities and hardships of severe deprivation because of these government investments. But our current antipoverty programs cannot abolish poverty by themselves. The Johnson administration started the War on Poverty and the Great Society in 1964. These initiatives constituted a bundle of domestic programs that included the Food Stamp Act, which made food aid permanent; the Economic Opportunity Act, which created Job Corps and Head Start; and the Social Security Amendments of 1965, which founded Medicare and Medicaid and expanded Social Security benefits. Nearly 200 pieces of legislation were signed into law in President Lyndon B. Johnson’s first five years in office, a breathtaking level of activity. And the result? Ten years after the first of these programs were rolled out in 1964, the share of Americans living in poverty was half what it was in 1960.But the War on Poverty and the Great Society were started during a time when organized labor was strong, incomes were climbing, rents were modest and the fringe banking industry as we know it today didn’t exist. Today multiple forms of exploitation have turned antipoverty programs into something like dialysis, a treatment designed to make poverty less lethal, not to make it disappear.This means we don’t just need deeper antipoverty investments. We need different ones, policies that refuse to partner with poverty, policies that threaten its very survival. We need to ensure that aid directed at poor people stays in their pockets, instead of being captured by companies whose low wages are subsidized by government benefits, or by landlords who raise the rents as their tenants’ wages rise, or by banks and payday-loan outlets who issue exorbitant fines and fees. Unless we confront the many forms of exploitation that poor families face, we risk increasing government spending only to experience another 50 years of sclerosis in the fight against poverty.The best way to address labor exploitation is to empower workers. A renewed contract with American workers should make organizing easy. As things currently stand, unionizing a workplace is incredibly difficult. Under current labor law, workers who want to organize must do so one Amazon warehouse or one Starbucks location at a time. We have little chance of empowering the nation’s warehouse workers and baristas this way. This is why many new labor movements are trying to organize entire sectors. The Fight for $15 campaign, led by the Service Employees International Union, doesn’t focus on a single franchise (a specific McDonald’s store) or even a single company (McDonald’s) but brings together workers from several fast-food chains. It’s a new kind of labor power, and one that could be expanded: If enough workers in a specific economic sector — retail, hotel services, nursing — voted for the measure, the secretary of labor could establish a bargaining panel made up of representatives elected by the workers. The panel could negotiate with companies to secure the best terms for workers across the industry. This is a way to organize all Amazon warehouses and all Starbucks locations in a single go.Sectoral bargaining, as it’s called, would affect tens of millions of Americans who have never benefited from a union of their own, just as it has improved the lives of workers in Europe and Latin America. The idea has been criticized by members of the business community, like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has raised concerns about the inflexibility and even the constitutionality of sectoral bargaining, as well as by labor advocates, who fear that industrywide policies could nullify gains that existing unions have made or could be achieved only if workers make other sacrifices. Proponents of the idea counter that sectoral bargaining could even the playing field, not only between workers and bosses, but also between companies in the same sector that would no longer be locked into a race to the bottom, with an incentive to shortchange their work force to gain a competitive edge. Instead, the companies would be forced to compete over the quality of the goods and services they offer. Maybe we would finally reap the benefits of all that economic productivity we were promised.We must also expand the housing options for low-income families. There isn’t a single right way to do this, but there is clearly a wrong way: the way we’re doing it now. One straightforward approach is to strengthen our commitment to the housing programs we already have. Public housing provides affordable homes to millions of Americans, but it’s drastically underfunded relative to the need. When the wealthy township of Cherry Hill, N.J., opened applications for 29 affordable apartments in 2021, 9,309 people applied. The sky-high demand should tell us something, though: that affordable housing is a life changer, and families are desperate for it.A woman and child in an apartment on East 100 St. in New York City in 1966.Bruce Davidson/Magnum PhotosTwo girls in Menands, N.Y., around 2008.Brenda Ann KenneallyWe could also pave the way for more Americans to become homeowners, an initiative that could benefit poor, working-class and middle-class families alike — as well as scores of young people. Banks generally avoid issuing small-dollar mortgages, not because they’re riskier — these mortgages have the same delinquency rates as larger mortgages — but because they’re less profitable. Over the life of a mortgage, interest on $1 million brings in a lot more money than interest on $75,000. This is where the federal government could step in, providing extra financing to build on-ramps to first-time homeownership. In fact, it already does so in rural America through the 502 Direct Loan Program, which has moved more than two million families into their own homes. These loans, fully guaranteed and serviced by the Department of Agriculture, come with low interest rates and, for very poor families, cover the entire cost of the mortgage, nullifying the need for a down payment. Last year, the average 502 Direct Loan was for $222,300 but cost the government only $10,370 per loan, chump change for such a durable intervention. Expanding a program like this into urban communities would provide even more low- and moderate-income families with homes of their own.We should also ensure fair access to capital. Banks should stop robbing the poor and near-poor of billions of dollars each year, immediately ending exorbitant overdraft fees. As the legal scholar Mehrsa Baradaran has pointed out, when someone overdraws an account, banks could simply freeze the transaction or could clear a check with insufficient funds, providing customers a kind of short-term loan with a low interest rate of, say, 1 percent a day.States should rein in payday-lending institutions and insist that lenders make it clear to potential borrowers what a loan is ultimately likely to cost them. Just as fast-food restaurants must now publish calorie counts next to their burgers and shakes, payday-loan stores should publish the average overall cost of different loans. When Texas adopted disclosure rules, residents took out considerably fewer bad loans. If Texas can do this, why not California or Wisconsin? Yet to stop financial exploitation, we need to expand, not limit, low-income Americans’ access to credit. Some have suggested that the government get involved by having the U.S. Postal Service or the Federal Reserve issue small-dollar loans. Others have argued that we should revise government regulations to entice commercial banks to pitch in. Whatever our approach, solutions should offer low-income Americans more choice, a way to end their reliance on predatory lending institutions that can get away with robbery because they are the only option available.In Tommy Orange’s novel, “There There,” a man trying to describe the problem of suicides on Native American reservations says: “Kids are jumping out the windows of burning buildings, falling to their deaths. And we think the problem is that they’re jumping.” The poverty debate has suffered from a similar kind of myopia. For the past half-century, we’ve approached the poverty question by pointing to poor people themselves — posing questions about their work ethic, say, or their welfare benefits — when we should have been focusing on the fire. The question that should serve as a looping incantation, the one we should ask every time we drive past a tent encampment, those tarped American slums smelling of asphalt and bodies, or every time we see someone asleep on the bus, slumped over in work clothes, is simply: Who benefits? Not: Why don’t you find a better job? Or: Why don’t you move? Or: Why don’t you stop taking out payday loans? But: Who is feeding off this?Those who have amassed the most power and capital bear the most responsibility for America’s vast poverty: political elites who have utterly failed low-income Americans over the past half-century; corporate bosses who have spent and schemed to prioritize profits over families; lobbyists blocking the will of the American people with their self-serving interests; property owners who have exiled the poor from entire cities and fueled the affordable-housing crisis. Acknowledging this is both crucial and deliciously absolving; it directs our attention upward and distracts us from all the ways (many unintentional) that we — we the secure, the insured, the housed, the college-educated, the protected, the lucky — also contribute to the problem.Corporations benefit from worker exploitation, sure, but so do consumers, who buy the cheap goods and services the working poor produce, and so do those of us directly or indirectly invested in the stock market. Landlords are not the only ones who benefit from housing exploitation; many homeowners do, too, their property values propped up by the collective effort to make housing scarce and expensive. The banking and payday-lending industries profit from the financial exploitation of the poor, but so do those of us with free checking accounts, as those accounts are subsidized by billions of dollars in overdraft fees.Living our daily lives in ways that express solidarity with the poor could mean we pay more; anti-exploitative investing could dampen our stock portfolios. By acknowledging those costs, we acknowledge our complicity. Unwinding ourselves from our neighbors’ deprivation and refusing to live as enemies of the poor will require us to pay a price. It’s the price of our restored humanity and renewed country.Matthew Desmond is a professor of sociology at Princeton University and a contributing writer for the magazine. His latest book, “Poverty, by America,” is set to be released this month and was adapted for this article. More

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    Turkey raises $2.25bn in first bond deal since earthquake

    Turkey has clinched its first international bond deal since last month’s earthquake as the government starts a massive effort to rebuild homes, businesses and critical infrastructure that were wrecked in the disaster. The country on Thursday raised $2.25bn in dollar-denominated debt in its first bond deal on foreign markets since January, according to the finance ministry. The February 6 earthquake caused $34bn in damage, according to the World Bank, though some local engineers and officials have estimated that the final reconstruction bill could be up to $100bn. Economists expect Turkey to pay for the recovery partially through fundraising on debt markets and bilateral deals with international partners, although Thursday’s deal was not marketed as a reconstruction bond.UK, US and other European investors accounted for 70 per cent of the bond deal, with 10 per cent going to those in the Middle East. Domestic investors scooped up 19 per cent of the issuance. The bonds, which mature in March 2029, were sold on Thursday with a yield of 9.5 per cent, or 5.2 percentage points higher than US Treasuries. That compared favourably with the 6.2 percentage point “spread” Turkey paid on a $2.75bn dollar bond deal in January. The relatively high borrowing costs reflect Turkey’s speculative-grade credit rating. Turkey has retained its access to international financing despite deep concerns over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s management of the economy. Inflation exceeded 85 per cent last October as the central bank slashed interest rates in contrast to most other countries that raised them. The lira has tumbled in recent years as international investors eschew the market, reaching a record low of TL18.96 to the dollar on Thursday. Investors are keeping close tabs on the campaign for the May 14 Turkish presidential election. It kicked into high gear on Monday when a coalition of six opposition parties picked Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as its candidate to challenge Erdoğan, who has led the country for two decades. The opposition alliance, known as the “table of six”, has agreed on dozens of policy proposals, including investor-friendly measures such as ensuring the central bank remains independent and focuses on inflation. Erdoğan, who is a longtime opponent of high interest rates, in effect controls monetary policy and had insisted on last year’s rate cuts. Erdoğan has sustained intense criticism over the cost of living crisis, the government’s sometimes stuttering earthquake response and lacklustre compliance with building regulations that worsened the damage caused by the natural disaster. More than 45,000 people were killed by the earthquake in Turkey with thousands more dying in neighbouring Syria. “The probability of regime change materialising is rising, which was true before the earthquakes, but more so now that crisis conditions have formed,” Wells Fargo economist Brendan McKenna told clients on Wednesday, while noting that his baseline expectation was still for Erdoğan to win. The US bank said that if the opposition managed to score an upset, “the lira could experience one of the most sizeable rallies in modern history as an independent central bank gets restored and an orthodox monetary policy framework is implemented”.Thursday’s debt deal was first reported by Bloomberg. Deutsche Bank, HSBC and JPMorgan were hired on Wednesday to manage the fundraising. More

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    Biden Will Release Dead-on-Arrival Budget, Picking Fight With GOP

    The president’s plans have little in common with the budget Republicans are set to release this spring, as the nation hurtles toward a possible default on its debt.WASHINGTON — President Biden will propose a budget on Thursday that has no chance of driving tax or spending decisions in Congress this year, but instead will serve as a statement of political priorities as he clashes with Republicans over the size of the federal government.Mr. Biden’s budget proposal, the third of his presidency, is an attempt to advance a narrative that the president is committed to investing in American manufacturing, fighting corporate profiteering, reducing budget deficits and fending off conservative attacks on safety-net programs.It is expected to include what White House officials say will be nearly $3 trillion in new deficit reduction, largely from a familiar batch of tax increases on companies and high earners, along with robust spending on the military and policies to further Mr. Biden’s attempts to support high-tech factory jobs and fight climate change.Republicans are expected to offer a starkly different budget sometime this spring, one likely to be stocked with cuts to federal health programs and aid to the poor, in an effort to eliminate the budget deficit within a decade without raising taxes. Mr. Biden is certain to reject those proposals, and they may struggle to attract enough moderate Republican votes to pass the House.The competing documents will highlight the dearth of common ground for Mr. Biden and his opposition party on fiscal policy at a high-stakes moment for the government and the global economy. That is true even though both the president and congressional Republicans are embracing the politics of promising to reduce deficits and the growth of the national debt, which topped $31 trillion late last year.Republican leaders in the House have refused to raise a congressionally imposed cap on how much the federal government can borrow unless Mr. Biden agrees to steep cuts to federal spending in exchange. Given the United States borrows huge sums of money to pay its bills, that position risks plunging the economy into crisis if the government runs out of cash and defaults on its debt later this year.Mr. Biden has refused to tie any spending cuts to raising the borrowing cap, which does not authorize any new expenditures, but said he welcomes debate over how best to ease the nation’s debt burden.The parties’ entrenched positions set Washington up for several bruising months, at least, of debt-limit discussions. Economists warn the standoff will rattle investors and poses mounting threats to the global financial system.On Wednesday, Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, urged lawmakers not to play games, saying there is no way to prevent a financial meltdown without raising the borrowing cap.“Congress raising the debt ceiling is really the only alternative,” Mr. Powell told a House committee. “There are no rabbits in hats to be pulled out on this.”Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, told a House committee: “Congress raising the debt ceiling is really the only alternative.”Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesPresidential budgets always offer visions for the nation’s fiscal policy that compete with those of their opposition — and budgets submitted by presidents to an opposition-dominated chamber of Congress rarely serve as more than messaging documents. Often, including under Mr. Biden, much of the budget fails to pass muster with the president’s own party.Mr. Biden failed to persuade a sufficient number of Democrats to pass many of the policy priorities outlined in his previous budget requests, like free community college and federally guaranteed paid leave. More than $2 trillion in tax increases from last year’s budget were never enacted despite Democrats’ control of Congress..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Still, this year’s budget releases from Mr. Biden and House Republicans carry extra importance because of the stakes of the debt-limit fight — and the few paths to compromise on fiscal policy that the documents are expected to show.Mr. Biden’s budget will raise taxes on corporations and high earners, both to pay for his policy priorities and to reduce the growth in America’s reliance on borrowed money, including a 25 percent tax aimed at billionaires. Republicans will seek to cut taxes, including making permanent some temporary tax cuts approved under former President Donald J. Trump, and may seek to eliminate the budget deficit in 10 years by gutting huge swaths of federal spending. Mr. Biden will continue to push his vision of an expanded and empowered government hand in the economy, with new spending for child care, education and more. Republicans will seek to slash federal agencies and much of the health coverage provided by the Affordable Care Act, though it may be difficult for Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California to assemble a package of cuts that will satisfy hard-liners and centrists in his caucus alike.Leaders on both sides of the aisle are embracing the contrasts in their approach.Mr. Biden “is willing to do what Republicans are not: lower the deficit in a realistic, responsible way without cutting benefits that tens of millions of people rely on,” Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, said in a brief speech on Wednesday. “Unlike Republicans, the president is also asking the richest of the rich to pay a little more of their fair share in taxes,” he added.Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, told reporters this week that Mr. Biden’s budget was “replete with what they would do if they could.”“Thank goodness the House is Republican,” Mr. McConnell said. “Massive tax increases, more spending, all of which the American people can thank the Republican House for, will not see the light of day.”Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces a challenge in coming up with cuts that will satisfy both hard-liners and centrists in the Republican caucus.Julia Nikhinson for The New York TimesRepublicans largely ignored the growth in deficits under Mr. Trump, including approving his tax cuts, which cost the federal government $2 trillion, and when joining with Democrats to pass trillions of dollars in economic aid amid the pandemic recession. Republicans joined Democrats three times to raise or suspend the debt limit without any spending cuts when Mr. Trump was in office. But after winning control of the House in November, Republican leaders have returned to warning that America’s debt load is hurting the U.S. economy and refusing to raise the debt limit unless Mr. Biden agrees to pare back federal spending.The Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will grow slightly this fiscal year, from $1.375 trillion to $1.41 trillion, then continue to rise for the course of the decade, topping $2 trillion in 2032.Those increases are being driven in part by the rising costs of Medicare and Social Security as members of the baby boom generation retire, and by the growing cost of servicing the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt following a series of rapid interest rate increases by the Fed in a bid to tame high inflation. Mr. Powell told lawmakers on Wednesday that “it isn’t that the debt today is unsustainable. It’s that the path is unsustainable.”The director of the budget office, Phillip L. Swagel, briefed lawmakers about deficit projections on Wednesday at the Capitol, warning they would eventually need to raise taxes, cut spending or both in order to mitigate rising debt. The office’s projections “suggest that, over the long term, changes in fiscal policy would need to be made to address the rising costs of interest and mitigate other adverse consequences of high and rising debt,” Mr. Swagel wrote in a slide deck presented to lawmakers.From 2024 to 2033, the budget office projects, deficits will total more than $20 trillion, driving gross federal debt to nearly $52 trillion.Mr. Biden’s proposals, if enacted in full, would reduce that growth by about 15 percent. They are not likely to be. Republicans have tried already this year to repeal tax increases and the Medicare prescription drug savings measures he signed last year.Through new laws he has signed and executive actions he has issued, Mr. Biden has approved policies that would add about $5 trillion to the national debt over a decade, according to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in Washington. Those include his 2021 economic aid law and debt relief for certain student loan borrowers, which is under challenge at the Supreme Court.It is unclear how Mr. Biden settled on the ultimate figure of nearly $3 trillion for his budget’s deficit reduction, or to what extent he agrees with Republicans who claim that the nation’s current levels of debt and deficits pose a risk to the economy.Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, did not directly answer a reporter’s questions this week on how Mr. Biden arrived at his preferred level of deficit reduction or whether the path of growth in the national debt is hurting the economy.“The president understands his fiscal responsibility. He understands how important it is to lower the deficit,” Ms. Jean-Pierre said.“He’s going to put forward a fiscal budget that is going to be responsible,” she added.Catie Edmondson More

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    Romania’s Danube dispute with Ukraine sparks Russian propaganda claims

    A small canal at the mouth of the Danube river has become a geopolitical flashpoint between Ukraine and Romania, sparking fears of Russian meddling and dwindling support in Bucharest for its war-torn neighbour.The dispute erupted when Kyiv said last month that it had dredged the Bystre canal — a Ukrainian waterway about 10km long that connects the Black Sea with the Danube’s Chilia branch, which forms a natural border between the two countries.The increase in Bystre’s navigable depth from 3.9 metres to 6.5 metres was its “first since independence” from the Soviet Union in 1989, Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry said, adding: “We keep on developing the Danube port cluster.”Expansion of the Danube Delta’s shipping channels is crucial to Kyiv’s plans to develop alternative export routes after Russia blockaded Ukraine’s Black Sea ports following its full-scale invasion a year ago. While a UN-backed grain deal to reopen three ports last year was a lifeline for Ukraine’s war-battered economy and boosted global food supplies, Kyiv is determined to secure viable routes that offer more protection from Russian aggression.It argues that the deepening of the canal is part of an earlier EU-sponsored Solidarity Lanes programme to facilitate Ukraine’s trade with the bloc. But the announcement sparked a backlash in Romania, where officials have claimed that the dredging threatens the Danube Delta, a world-protected natural reserve known for its biodiversity and abundant birdlife. Romania’s foreign ministry summoned the Ukrainian ambassador and demanded that its neighbour halt “all dredging works” if the purpose went beyond regular maintenance of the waterway. Bucharest also requested that it carry out its own measurements of the Chilia branch and the Bystre canal.With the spat threatening to damage bilateral ties, Ukraine’s embassy has appealed to Romanians to “not play along with Russian propaganda” that aims to undermine their support for Kyiv as the war drags on.Ukraine’s embassy in Bucharest quickly sought to clarify that the works were of an “operational nature” to remove silt that had reduced the depth of the waterway. But the topic has become highly politicised in Romania, an EU and Nato member state that has strongly supported Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, including by hosting thousands of refugees.Klaus Iohannis, Romania’s president, deplored “inflammatory speeches” and urged fellow citizens to first let experts establish “what is really happening there”.“I do not think it is appropriate to attack the Ukrainians based on uncertain data,” Iohannis said during a meeting with US president Joe Biden and fellow regional leaders in Warsaw last month. “They don’t need to be scolded, they need support.”Romanian president Klaus Iohannis: ‘I do not think it is appropriate to attack the Ukrainians based on uncertain data’ © Tomas Tkacik/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty ImagesDuring the same week, a far-right Romanian lawmaker, George Simion, posted a video from a boat on what he said was the Bystre canal. In the video, Simion criticised political opponents for not caring about the Danube Delta.Ukraine has approved the request from Romania to carry out its own hydrographic measurements on the Bystre canal and Chilia branch to clarify “conflicting information”, said Romania’s transport ministry. The measurements are earmarked to begin on March 15.On Tuesday, talks mediated by the European Commission were held in Izmail, a Ukrainian port town on the Danube about 60km west of the Bystre canal.“We [will] do common measurements to clarify everything to avoid any politicisation,” Dmytro Barinov, deputy head of the Ukrainian Sea Port Authority, said after the talks. He added that Ukrainian Naval Forces, which will oversee security, still needed to give their approval. “We will speed up the process as much as possible.”

    A cargo ship sails through Ukraine’s Bystre waterway last July © Operational Command South press service/Reuters

    For Gabriel Paun, president of the Romanian environmental group Agent Green, the public discourse so far has been saturated with “too much politics and too little science”.“I know that Romania and Ukraine should have consensus before any work should be carried out in any corner of the Delta,” he said. “The consensus must prioritise ecosystem conservation before economic gains.”Adina Vălean, a Romanian politician who is the EU’s transport commissioner, said the commission had asked both countries to show “full transparency” and resolve their differences. Contrary to Ukraine’s statement, she said the Bystre canal was not part of the Solidarity Lanes programme, which includes several Danube ports in both countries and had allowed for the export of 51mn tonnes of goods from Ukraine from the programme’s launch in May to the beginning of February.“The Danubian corridor is very important,” Vălean told the Financial Times, adding that more funding would be made available for Romania to improve navigability and boost export volumes via its own canal, Sulina, which runs along another branch of the Danube Delta and is the main waterway for cargo ships connecting to the Black Sea.

    Adrian Stănică, a researcher at the National Institute for Marine Geology in Bucharest, points out that it would be costly for Kyiv to develop and maintain the Bystre-Chilia route. But he said regular maintenance works had negligible effects on the biosphere. With bilateral ties at stake, he added that in Romania discourse on the matter had become “intoxicated” by fake news and possibly fuelled by a third country, without naming Russia.Costin Ciobanu, a Romanian political scientist at the Royal Holloway University of London, said that only the facts would enable an “informed discussion about what the Ukrainians did and whether their works on the Bystre canal were a threat to the Danube Delta”.“Romania’s key interest is that Ukraine wins this war, and should not let episodes like this cast a doubt.” More

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    Investors warn Japan’s foreign bond buying spree is at risk

    Japanese investors have piled into foreign debt this year — but analysts have warned that the revival in demand from one of the cornerstones of the US Treasury market is unlikely to last.Data from Japan’s ministry of finance reported this week showed that investors bought ¥4.1tn ($30bn) of foreign debt in February, the largest total since September 2021. That follows net buying of ¥1.1tn in January, and marks a pause in the dramatic selling of foreign debt in 2022.The big rise in yields over the past year in markets outside Japan is theoretically a big draw for the country’s banks, insurers and pension funds, who face rock-bottom returns at home. However, the high cost of hedging foreign bond holdings against swings in the yen exchange rate — which most Japanese investors prefer to do — wipes out those extra returns and was likely to mean the current buying spree is shortlived, analysts said.“The cost of hedging is already prohibitive and with current expectations about the [US Federal Reserve’s] path, is set to become more prohibitive,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “You’re not going to get the sustained demand from Japan that you got a few years ago.”Japan has been the biggest foreign owner of US Treasuries for years, as ultra-dovish monetary policy domestically has pushed investors outside the country’s borders in search of returns. Japanese investors also hold substantial quantities of eurozone government debt, particularly French bonds.However, they dumped large quantities of foreign bonds — of which US debt forms a sizeable proportion — during last year’s historic global fixed-income rout.Steep interest rate rises from the Fed and other big central banks pushed the yen to a 32-year low in October, and raised the cost for Japanese investors of hedging against currency moves, which depends largely on the rate gap between Japan and elsewhere. While the yen rose at the end of last year, it has weakened 4.3 per cent so far in 2023.The cost could be set to increase further after Fed chair Jay Powell said this week that the strength of US economic data may lead to the central bank re-accelerating its efforts to lift borrowing costs, having slowed rate rises earlier this year. The European Central Bank is also expected to continue to lift rates this year following a run of strong economic data.Japanese buying of foreign bonds “ultimately comes down to the hedging costs, which is aligned with the fed funds rate. The cost of funding will dictate foreign flows,” said George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG. “The monthly or weekly flows are not always going to be smooth and logical and reflect the hedging costs. But you will see those trends over the longer term.”Some of the buying in recent weeks may be from Japanese institutions that have more capacity for making unhedged bets, such as pension funds. After the big sell-off last year, some institutional investors may be very underweight foreign debt, so “there is capacity to buy unhedged at the moment”, said Edward Al-Hussainy, senior currency and rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle.

    However the riskiness of unhedged holdings of dollar-denominated debt, which can tumble in value if the yen rebounds against the US currency, is likely to limit the scope for further demand.A prospective sea change in Japanese monetary policy could eventually help to bring hedging costs down. Though interest rates remain below zero, the reign of Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda — the architect of the country’s years of ultra-loose policy — will end after the central bank’s meeting on Friday.His successor, Kazuo Ueda, has hinted that he may relax or even ditch the BoJ’s policy of pinning 10-year bond yields close to zero, a move that some investors would see as a prelude to eventual rises in interest rates.But tighter monetary policy in Japan could undermine investors’ rationale for looking at overseas bonds in the first place.“If the level of yields in Japan starts to go up, suddenly that will make Japanese yield levels more attractive, which might run the risk of Japanese investors asking why they are investing abroad,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. “That is a major risk to international fixed-income markets.” More

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    Fed hurtles towards tough call on size of next interest rate rise

    The US Federal Reserve is hurtling towards one of the toughest calls of its monetary tightening campaign as it decides whether to switch back to more aggressive rate rises at a time of acute economic uncertainty. This week, chair Jay Powell warned the central bank might have to return to half-point rate rises at the conclusion of its next meeting on March 22. But he said the final decision hinged on a series of crucial forthcoming data releases, which will be published either during or just before a “blackout” period when the Fed is all but forbidden from communicating publicly. That means the Fed might not only be forced to make a significant departure from the path Powell laid out just over a month ago, when the central bank called time on a string of “jumbo” rate rises and opted for a more typical quarter-point cadence. It also means it has a short window to signal its thinking to investors. “They’re getting spooked, and why wouldn’t they be?” said Derek Tang, an economist at research firm LH Meyer.“It’s their reputation at stake now and reputation is something that is very hard to earn back once you lose it,” added Tang, who predicts the Fed will opt for a half-point rate rise. At the conclusion of the Fed’s most recent meeting earlier this month, Powell said the “disinflationary process” was under way, prompting a relief rally in markets and leaving the impression the US central bank had finally turned a corner in its fight against soaring prices. However, since then a surge in job creation coupled with the hotter-than-expected inflation and spending data has complicated the Fed’s calculus. Powell has been at pains to point out that the Fed has not yet decided on a half-point rate rise over a smaller increment. “We’re not on a preset path,” he said during congressional testimony this week. “We will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook.”Whether the Fed chooses to go bigger or smaller depends in large part on two data releases that officials are waiting for with bated breath: the next jobs report on Friday and fresh consumer price data on Tuesday. Those releases will help the Fed decide whether the hotter-than-expected releases last month were “fluky”, perhaps because of unseasonably warm weather at the start of the year, according to William English, a former director of the Fed’s division of monetary affairs.“If February looks bad and confirms some of what we saw in January, then I think they probably do conclude they have further to go than they thought,” said English, who is now at Yale University. In that case, a half-point rise “might well feel like a safe bet to get back on the path that they need”, he added.Another complicating factor for the Fed is the jobs report will be released just hours before it enters the blackout in the early hours of Saturday morning. After that, officials are forbidden from making public statements that are heavily parsed by investors for signs of which way the Fed is leaning. Meanwhile, the inflation number will be released in the middle of the quiet period, along with data on retail sales and manufacturing inflation.Futures markets now suggest odds of roughly 80 per cent that the Fed will opt for a half-point rate rise, according to the CME Group.Economists at Citigroup warn that if the Fed blinks and sticks with a quarter-point rate rise, it could result in an “unhelpfully large easing of financial conditions”.

    Tang from LH Meyer also warned that the economic data will not be “ambiguous enough” to allow the Fed to stick with a quarter-point increase. For Tiffany Wilding, North American economist at Pimco, payrolls growth of about 300,000 on Friday would clear the path for the more aggressive option.The prospect of a half-point rate rise has also upended expectations about how far the Fed will lift its benchmark rate this year. It has already raised it to just below 4.75 per cent. Powell this week said the “ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated”.In December, most officials saw the fed funds rate topping out somewhere between 5 per cent and 5.25 per cent. Fresh projections will be released alongside the rate decision this month, with many economists now expecting those forecasts to be revised upwards by at least half a percentage point to 5.5 per cent to 5.75 per cent. “What gets him to stop? The economy has to shift pretty sharply,” said Harris of Powell. “We need to see the job market cool off dramatically, with job growth down to zero and the unemployment rate inching up.” More