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    Japan’s factory output posts biggest fall in 8 months on weak autos, chips sectors

    TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s factory output shrank at the fastest pace in eight months in January as declining overseas demand took a heavy toll on key industries such as automakers and the semiconductor equipment sector.Factory output fell 4.6% in January from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, government data showed on Tuesday. The contraction was much larger than economists’ median forecast of a 2.6% decline and followed an upwardly-revised 0.3% increase in December.It marked the fastest decrease since May 2022’s 7.5% fall, when China’s COVID-19 lockdown disrupted Japanese manufacturers’ supply chains.Output of auto products slumped 10.1%, dragging the overall index lower while manufacturing of items such as production machinery and electronic parts dropped 13.5% and 4.2%, respectively.Semiconductor-making equipment was down 26.8% as chip firms slowed their capital expenditure, while passenger cars fell 7.4% due in part to component supply bottleneck caused by heavy snow across Japan, a Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) official told reporters.The United States-led export control of chip equipment against China “has not had an immediate effect” on Japanese industrial production in January, the official added.Manufacturers surveyed by METI expect output to rise 8.0% in February and gain 0.7% in March, the data also showed, although the official poll tends to report an optimistic outlook.Separate data showed Japanese retail sales rose 6.3% in January from a year earlier, beating a median market forecast for a 4.0% gain and posting an eleventh consecutive month of expansion. It also logged the fastest growth since May 2021.Compared with the previous month, retail sales expanded 1.9% in January, following a 1.1% rise in December, the data showed.Japan’s economy, the world’s third-largest, is expected to post an annualised 1.4% expansion in January-March according to a Reuters poll, after weaker-than-expected 0.6% growth in the final quarter of 2022. More

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    Chinese factories launch charm offensive for buyers after Covid isolation

    Chinese factory owners and exporters are launching a charm offensive to woo back buyers as they face sluggish global demand that has stymied their recovery from three years of isolation under Beijing’s zero-Covid policy.Local Chinese governments have organised delegations of exporters to trade shows across the US and Europe to drum up business, targeting foreign buyers who diversified their suppliers over the past few years in response to disruption from the Covid-19 pandemic.Dongshen Garment, a Nanchang-based manufacturer of T-shirts, pyjamas, underwear and jeans that supplies brands including Walt Disney and Levi’s, sent representatives to the US this month as part of a contingent organised by the south-eastern province of Jiangxi.“Our clients in the US reported a mounting stockpile of unsold goods, as they have experienced a slump in sales since last June,” said Hu Juncheng, Dongshen Garment’s general manager. “During the pandemic, we couldn’t go to visit our clients overseas . . . That affected our communication.”Long known as the world’s “factory floor”, mainland China’s manufacturing sector has had to confront a perfect storm of challenges just as other countries are emerging from pandemic restrictions.Foreign buyers were initially blocked from visiting China, which only lifted quarantine requirements for arrivals last month. Production was disrupted by rolling lockdowns, rising shipping costs delayed orders and geopolitical tensions drove clients to seek suppliers elsewhere.China’s exports dropped 9.9 per cent year on year in dollar terms in December, following an 8.9 per cent fall the month before as global inflation weighed on trade, with price growth and interest rate rises damping demand.Many factories in China’s southern and eastern manufacturing heartlands pared back hiring or even closed for weeks at a time last year as Covid-19 swept through the country.“First the lockdown, then the pain from the reopening, had a short-term impact on production, but whether it’s lockdown [or] quick reopening, demand is not high,” said Gary Ng, an economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. “The higher prices exporters were charging due to inflation can’t mask the underlying pressure from lower demand,” Ng added, forecasting a further drop in exports in the first quarter of this year.Liu Xingdong, owner of Wenzhou-based eyeglasses logistics company HD Eyewear in eastern Zhejiang province, said order volume had dropped by 30 per cent over the past three years.In February, Liu travelled to Italy on a flight chartered by the municipal government to attend MIDO, the world’s largest international eyewear show in Milan, alongside 169 other local eyewear makers.Some delegations are venturing further afield. The commerce bureau of Guizhou, a poorer province in south-western China, in February sent 18 food industry groups to the Prodexpo trade show in Moscow, bucking the tide of foreign businesses exiting Russia to avoid western sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine a year ago.Last year, the delegation attended an exhibition in Saudi Arabia, where China’s president Xi Jinping is seeking closer diplomatic and investment ties, according to local media.

    The campaign to kick-start international sales also comes as the US has ramped up efforts to separate its supply chains from China, imposing export controls on advanced technologies.Despite rising tensions, trade between the superpowers was worth a record $690.6bn in 2022, according to official figures.Andrew Hupert, who set up a consultancy in Mexico last year for companies seeking to shift their manufacturing away from China, said that while many were diversifying geographically, decoupling may be slower than expected as China had a deeper production ecosystem, which was attractive for exporters.“A lot of these manufacturers rely on contract manufacturers, on [original equipment manufacturers] and on an army of sourcing agents. That doesn’t exist [in Mexico],” Hupert said. More

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    Marketmind: Scope for a month-end bounce in Asia

    (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.Investors await a torrent of Asian economic data on Tuesday, including Indian GDP, with market sentiment appearing to brighten a little going into the last trading day of the month. As U.S. bond yields eased and there was a rare pause in the cranking up of Fed rate expectations, equities were relatively calm on Monday – Europe’s Stoxx 600 had its best day in more than three weeks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose modestly and the VIX ‘fear’ index fell back to a 20 handle.Asian markets also held up better on Monday than many might have expected following Wall Street’s slump on Friday and the heightened U.S.-China tensions over the weekend. The yuan even scored its biggest rise against the dollar in a month. If it is end of month profit-taking and position-squaring that are going to drive Asian markets on Tuesday, there may be scope for a decent bounce. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is down nearly 7% in February – compare that to the MSCI World index, down almost 3%, and the S&P 500, down around 2%. The slew of economic indicators across the region due for release on Tuesday is topped by Q4 Indian GDP. Economists reckon growth slowed further amid weakening demand and is set to lose more momentum going into this year as higher interest rates weigh on activity.The consensus forecast is for annual growth of 4.6%, which is expected to slow to 4.4% in Q1 this year. Growth across 2023/24 is expected at 6.0%, below the government’s 6.5% goal.Investors get the latest snapshots of industrial production and retail sales from Japan, credit and lending figures from Australia, and trade data from Vietnam.Vietnam joins Thailand, Hong Kong and South Korea in reporting trade data this week, figures that will give an insight into how Asia has started the year in terms of trade with the rest of the world.While economists agree that globalization probably peaked more than a decade ago, global trade has held up pretty well since the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If this resilience persists, the long-term outlook for emerging markets may just be a shade brighter.Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- India GDP (Q4)- Incoming Bank of Japan deputy governors Himino and Uchida testify to parliament- Fed’s Goolsbee speaks (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao) More

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    UK’s Hunt has extra 30 billion pounds to play with in March budget, IFS says

    LONDON (Reuters) – British finance minister Jeremy Hunt may have a 30 billion-pound ($36 billion) windfall at next month’s budget, but this will be too short-lived to fund permanent tax cuts or public-sector pay rises, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said on Tuesday.The IFS said the fiscal outlook remained much darker than at the time of Britain’s last full budget a year ago, and while energy prices had fallen, the weak economic outlook was likely to weigh on the public finances in the longer term.”That medium-term outlook is what really matters when it comes to making a case for any … permanent tax cuts or permanent increases to spending,” said Isabel Stockton, a senior researcher at the IFS.Borrowing so far in the 2022/23 financial year has been 31 billion pounds – or 1.2% of annual economic output – below an official forecast made in November when Hunt presented a fiscal update to parliament.For the next financial year, starting in April, the IFS expects the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to make a downward revision around that size.That would lower public borrowing for 2023/24 to 110 billion pounds — still more than twice the 50 billion pounds which the OBR forecast nearly a year ago, before the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine became clearer.Hunt announced 55 billion pounds of fiscal tightening in November to placate markets after former prime minister Liz Truss promised unfunded tax cuts. Hunt’s squeeze was time-tabled for the back-end of the government’s five-year budgeting period.TAX CUTS OR PAY RISES?Despite last year’s turmoil, Sunak and Hunt are under pressure from some Conservative lawmakers to announce tax cuts again to boost dismal opinion poll ratings ahead of a national election expected in late 2024.Strikes by healthcare workers, teachers and other public sector employees are also pressuring the government to offer a bigger pay rise than the 3.5% on offer.The IFS said it would cost an extra 5 billion pounds a year to raise this pay offer to 5.5%, matching the forecast for consumer price inflation for 2023/24 but locking in a big real-terms fall in pay during the current financial year.While affordable for now, it would raise questions about how to fund such an increase permanently, IFS Director Paul Johnson said.”There is some money knocking around in the short term. But if you increase pay, that is clearly a permanent increase in spending,” he said.The government’s long-term practice of freezing duties on vehicle fuel – which is meant to rise in line with inflation – costs around an extra 6 billion pounds each year, he added.Johnson said an easier win for Hunt than a bigger public sector pay deal might be keeping the current level of household energy subsidies, which are due to fall in April before being fully phased out. Holding them at their current level would cost 2.7 billion pounds, based on current energy price forecasts.($1 = 0.8323 pounds) More

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    Biden’s Semiconductor Plan Flexes the Power of the Federal Government

    In return for vast subsidies, the Biden administration is asking the chip industry to make promises about its workers and finances.WASHINGTON — Semiconductor manufacturers seeking a slice of nearly $40 billion in new federal subsidies will need to ensure affordable child care for their workers, limit stock buybacks and share certain excess profits with the government, the Biden administration will announce on Tuesday.The new requirements represent an aggressive attempt by the federal government to bend the behavior of corporate America to accomplish its economic and national security objectives. As the Biden administration makes the nation’s first big foray into industrial policy in decades, officials are also using the opportunity to advance policies championed by liberals that seek to empower workers.While the moves would advance some of the left-behind portions of the president’s agenda, they could also set a fraught precedent for attaching policy strings to federal funding.Last year, a bipartisan group of lawmakers passed the CHIPS Act, which devoted $52 billion to expanding U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and research, in hopes of making the nation less reliant on foreign suppliers for critical chips that power computers, household appliances, cars and more. The prospect of accessing those funds has already enticed domestic and foreign-owned chip makers to announce plans for or begin construction on new projects in Arizona, Texas, Ohio, New York and other states.On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will release its application for manufacturers seeking funds under the law. It will include a variety of requirements that go far beyond simply encouraging semiconductor production.For example, the department will tell companies seeking awards of $150 million or more to guarantee affordable, high-quality child care for workers who build or operate a plant.Those projects will also be required to share a portion of any unanticipated profits with the federal government. Companies applying for awards will be required to submit detailed financial projections, with the federal government entitled to share in any “upside” profits. The Commerce Department depicted that requirement as a way to encourage companies to make their projections as accurate as possible, and not exaggerate any losses to try to secure more funding.Preference will also be given to applicants that promise to refrain from stock buybacks, which tend to enrich shareholders and corporate executives by increasing a company’s share price. The law already prohibits companies from directly using federal money to finance stock buybacks or pay dividends.Gina Raimondo, the Commerce secretary, said in an interview that the financial rules would encourage companies to ask only for funding they really need and prevent them from diverting taxpayer dollars to pad the pockets of their shareholders.“We don’t want to spend a dollar more than necessary to make these projects happen,” she said.The requirements will join a growing list of administration efforts to expand the reach of President Biden’s economic policies beyond their primary intent. For instance, administration officials have attached stringent labor standards and “Buy American” provisions to money from a bipartisan infrastructure law.The Global Race for Computer ChipsA Ramp-Up in Spending: Amid a tech cold war with China, U.S. companies have pledged nearly $200 billion for chip manufacturing projects since early 2020. But the investments have limits.Crackdown on China: The United States has been aiming to prevent China from becoming an advanced power in chips, issuing sweeping restrictions on the country’s access to advanced technology.Arizona Factory: Internal doubts are mounting at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest maker of advanced chips, over its investment in a new factory in Phoenix.CHIPS Act: Semiconductor companies, which united to get the sprawling $280 billion bill approved last year, have set off a lobbying frenzy as they argue for more cash than their competitors.Companies that receive chip subsidies to build new plants will be able to use some of the funding to meet the new child care requirement. That could include building company child care centers near construction sites or new plants, paying local child care providers to add capacity at an affordable cost for workers, directly subsidizing workers’ care costs or other, similar steps that would ensure workers have access to care for their children.Other provisions of the program will encourage companies, universities and other parties to offer more training for American workers, in advanced sciences but also in fields like welding. The program will encourage colleges and universities to triple their graduation of new engineers over the next decade, Ms. Raimondo said in a speech last week, while also offering high-paying jobs to tens of thousands of American workers without four-year college degrees.Ms. Raimondo outlined an ambitious vision for investing in the United States to build “a self-propelling engine of innovation and production.” The goal of the program, she said, was to create at least two manufacturing clusters for the most cutting-edge chips, as well as factories for older chips. The ultimate aim would be to spur a vibrant semiconductor ecosystem in which every leading global chip company would feel the need to have both research and manufacturing in the United States, she said.In interviews, Ms. Raimondo said the CHIPS requirements would help companies attract women to fill open jobs at a moment when many companies are struggling with a labor shortage.Chip makers, Ms. Raimondo said, “will not be successful unless you find a way to attract, train, put to work and retain women, and you won’t do that without child care.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.The rules for chip makers come on top of other requirements written into the law, including a ban on certain new investments in China. Under that restriction, chip manufacturers that take U.S. funding cannot make new, high-tech investments in China or other “countries of concern” for at least a decade, a prohibition designed to ensure that U.S. taxpayer money does not go toward building operations in China.But analysts have argued that some of these restrictions may be difficult to uphold, given that money is fungible and can pass from one part of a company to another outside of public sight. Some Republican and Democratic lawmakers have also questioned the wisdom of giving any taxpayer money to the chip industry, which is generally profitable. Executives have countered that the high cost of operating in the United States — and subsidies offered by foreign governments — make it cheaper for semiconductor companies to manufacture their products offshore.The next few months will provide the first test of how the Commerce Department balances those concerns. Ms. Raimondo said companies would have to open their books to her team, and that the goal would be to try to “crowd in” private investment, rather than canceling it out.According to the funding application, companies that have secured other sources of private capital will receive “strong preference” for government aid, and applicants will need to have secured some kind of incentive from a state or local government to be eligible for the funding.Commerce officials will prioritize projects linked to state and local incentive programs that create “spillover benefits” for communities, like investments in work force, education or infrastructure, rather than policies like direct tax abatements that benefit lone companies, it said.The rules also seek to address rising concerns among American employers, including manufacturers, that a lack of access to affordable child care is blocking millions of Americans from looking for work, particularly women.Mr. Biden pushed Congress to address those concerns over the past two years, proposing hundreds of billions of dollars for new child care programs, but he was unable to corral support from even a majority of Senate Democrats.But Mr. Biden did persuade lawmakers to approve an assortment of new spending programs seeking to bolster American manufacturing. Now, the Commerce Department is trying to utilize a centerpiece of those efforts, which aims to expand American semiconductor manufacturing, to make at least a small dent in his large goals for the so-called care economy.When it became clear last year that sweeping plans to expand and subsidize child care would not make it into the climate, health and tax bill, the culmination of Mr. Biden’s economic efforts in Congress, Ms. Raimondo gathered aides around a conference table. She told them, she said, that “if Congress wasn’t going to do what they should have done, we’re going to do it in implementation” of the bills that did pass.America’s child care industry has not fully rebounded from the pandemic recession. It is still about 58,000 workers, or five percentage points, short of its prepandemic peak, according to an analysis of Labor Department data by the Center for the Study of Child Care Employment at the University of California, Berkeley.Shortly before the pandemic, the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington surveyed 35 states and found more than 11 million children had a potential need for child care — yet fewer than eight million slots were available.That shortage is particularly acute in some of the areas where manufacturers are set to begin building new chip plants spurred by the new legislation. Commerce Department officials calculate that in the Syracuse, N.Y., area, where Micron announced a $100 billion chip making investment last year after Mr. Biden signed the new law, the need for slots in child care facilities is nearly three times the size of the actual care capacity in the region.In Phoenix, where semiconductor manufacturing is booming, child care costs consume about 18 percent of a typical construction or manufacturing worker’s salary. That share is higher than the national average.Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, center, with Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York, said that the child care requirements should help companies hire mothers, easing a labor shortage.Sarah Silbiger for The New York TimesIn a speech last week, Ms. Raimondo called efforts to attract more women to the work force “a simple question of math” for industries complaining of labor shortages. “We need chip manufacturers, construction companies and unions to work with us toward the national goal of hiring and training another million women in construction over the next decade to meet the demand not just in chips, but other industries and infrastructure projects as well,” she said.Only about three in 10 U.S. manufacturing workers are women. Ms. Raimondo said the CHIPS Act would fail if the administration did not help companies change those numbers, by bringing in women who have children.Some American manufacturers have already turned to on-site care facilities to help meet workers’ needs. The automaker Toyota has provided 24-hour care at a factory in Kentucky since 1993 and one in Indiana since 2004.Chad Moutray, the director of the Center for Manufacturing Research at the Manufacturing Institute, which is affiliated with the National Association of Manufacturers, wrote in a report late last year that child care availability is part of the reason women do not seek more jobs in manufacturing.“Women represent a sizable talent pool that manufacturers cannot ignore,” he wrote. More

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    BOJ’s Wakatabe warns secular stagnation risk has yet to pass

    Japan’s economy was in deflation for a prolonged period, but sustainable monetary easing has “certainly had a positive effect” on the real economy, Wakatabe said, defending the BOJ’s prolonged, ultra-loose monetary policy.”The mild-inflation regime has not come to an end, and we should say that the potential dangers of secular stagnation and Japanification have not yet passed,” he said in a speech delivered at Columbia University in New York.”Japanification” is a concept used among academic circles that points to Japan’s experience with a long period of stagnation accompanied by deflation or low inflation from the late 1990s through the early 2000s.While inflation has recently accelerated across the globe, many of the factors pushing up prices are driven by higher costs such as the war in Ukraine, Wakatabe said.”When an exogenous shock occurs, there is an adjustment from the old to a new price system. After adjustment, the rising inflation rate is likely to return to the steady-state inflation rate,” he said.”So the important point is how this rate is affected. Of course, it is possible that cost-push factors will remain, but whether they will push up the steady-state inflation rate is uncertain,” Wakatabe said, adding that it was “well known that cost-push inflation does not last long.”A former academic, Wakatabe is known as a proponent of aggressive monetary easing. His five-year term as deputy BOJ governor ends in March. More

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    Yellen backs fully financed IMF program for Ukraine by end-March -U.S. Treasury

    Treasury said Yellen, who made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday, days after the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, met with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko and commended his work to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and stay focused on economic reforms as the war continued.She also expressed support for creation of a multi-agency donor coordination platform for Ukraine to help the country address near-term recovery and future reconstruction needs together with international partners, Treasury said.Yellen’s comments reflect growing momentum toward agreement on a new IMF financing package for Ukraine, coming days after IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also visited Kyiv.French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told reporters on Friday that European finance chiefs have endorsed a $15.5 billion IMF loan program for Ukraine, a sum in line with that given last week by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.Yellen spoke with Georgieva before leaving Washington to attend the Group of 20 meeting in India, and senior Treasury officials were in daily touch with IMF counterparts about the Ukrainian program, a Treasury official said. Yellen and Treasury officials also had conversations at the G20 with counterparts about an IMF program for Ukraine, the official said. More

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    Yellen in surprise visit to Kyiv to reaffirm US economic aid to Ukraine

    KYIV (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen paid a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday to reaffirm U.S. support for Ukraine in its struggle against Russia’s invasion and promote U.S. economic aid that is bolstering Ukraine’s war effort.Yellen met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko and other key government officials just days into the war’s second year, repeating U.S. assurances delivered by President Joe Biden a week ago in Kyiv.”America will stand with Ukraine as long as it takes,” Yellen, flanked by sandbags at the cabinet ministers’ office, told Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, in a trip also aimed at shoring up support at home for continued aid.In a private meeting with Zelenskiy late in the afternoon, the Treasury chief aid she commended him “for his leadership and resolve in the face of Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war.”Yellen said she welcomed Zelenskiy’s actions to strengthen governance and address corruption – actions needed to ensure that U.S. economic aid is being spent responsibly, a message she repeated in her meeting with Marchenko.”The United States has been powerfully supporting us since the first days of this war not only with weapons, but also on the financial front,” Zelenskiy said on his Telegram social media channel.”It is necessary to further strengthen sanctions to deprive Russia of the ability to finance the war.”In public remarks, Shmyhal said he and Yellen discussed additional sanctions on Russia, including confiscating frozen Russian assets to benefit Ukraine’s recovery.But Yellen told reporters in a phone briefing that there were still significant legal obstacles to fully seizing some $300 billion in Russian frozen central bank assets and expressed caution about new curbs on Russia’s nuclear energy sector. Yellen announced the transfer of the first $1.25 billion from the latest, $9.9 billion tranche of economic and budget assistance from Washington.AIR RAID SIREN ON ARRIVALYellen’s visit comes a week after Biden staged an unannounced trip to Kyiv and promised $500 million in additional military aid for Ukraine and new sanctions on Russia announced days later, including effectively banning U.S. imports of Russian aluminum.As Biden did, Yellen’s staff worked to keep the visit a secret until she left Kyiv, with a daily media advisory for Monday saying only that she would “meet with advisors and staff.”She traveled into Kyiv via an overnight train with a small group of senior aides after landing in a U.S. military aircraft near Rzeszow, Poland, near Ukraine’s western border, and left again by overnight train after a full day of meetings. Shortly before her arrival in the capital, city air raid sirens wailed as a warning of a possible attack, although they often turn out to be false alarms.On a chilly morning, Yellen laid a wreath at a memorial wall for Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war, saying: “I am witnessing first-hand the devastating toll of Putin’s brutal war.”She stopped to inspect a destroyed Russian tank and mobile artillery piece on display at a city square cleared of visitors and met with first responders from the city’s emergency services.BUDGET SUPPORTYellen visited Kyiv on her return to Washington from a G20 finance leaders meeting in Bengaluru, India, where she urged counterparts to boost economic aid to Ukraine and insisted that G20 ministers issue a strong condemnation of Russia’s invasion.Since the war began, the U.S. has given Ukraine more than $13 billion in economic and budget support funding, and the latest disbursement will push that to over $14 billion, with an additional $8.65 billion expected through Sept. 30.Yellen and Treasury officials viewed the trip as a key way to reinforce the importance of sustaining economic and budgetary assistance for Ukraine to the American public, a Treasury official said, amid signals from some Republican lawmakers that they are growing skeptical.Ukraine is estimated to need $40 billion to $57 billion in external financing this year to support its economy and is negotiating a $15.5 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund to partly fill the gap.Yellen told Marchenko she backed completion of a fully financed program for Ukraine with the IMF by the end of March, Treasury said in a statement.Yellen said such economic support is keeping Ukraine’s government and critical public services running, schools open and pensions paid, providing a “bedrock of stability” that fuels Ukrainian resistance.”A sustained military effort cannot succeed without an effective government at home,” Yellen said at the Kyiv Obolon School No. 168, where the salaries of teachers, administrators and support staff are reimbursed from U.S. budget support funds.A chalkboard at the school, damaged in Russia’s initial assault on the capital last year, read “Crimea is Ours,” next to one with “2+2=4.” More