Economy

CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuela’s governing and opposition parties are making progress toward the creation of a $3.2 billion U.N.-administrated fund that would aim to use the country’s frozen assets for humanitarian purposes, the top lawmaker from the country’s ruling party said on Monday.During Mexico-based talks in November, representatives for the government of President Nicholas Maduro and the U.S.-backed opposition party agreed to create the fund to support healthcare, food and education efforts needed to overcome Venezuela’s long-running social and political crisis.”If (the fund) happens, and I think we are advancing on some steps in that direction, we can pass to another stage of the conversations,” the government’s lead negotiator and National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez told television station Globovision.The talks, which cover a range of issues, first began in August 2021 before a 15-month hiatus. They resumed briefly in November 2022 after Washington eased some sanctions on the Maduro government. The opposition hopes the negotiations will help guarantee that elections tentatively scheduled for 2024 are held in fair conditions.Rodriguez did not offer details on what progress had been made toward creation of the humanitarian fund. The United Nations office in Caracas did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, nor did the head of the opposition’s legislature, Dinorah Figuera, who lives in exile in Spain.Rodriguez has previously said there is no reason to return to the talks unless the funds are made available. The opposition’s head negotiator, Gerardo Blyde, has said money from the frozen assets is spread across different jurisdictions, each with their own legal requirements.The opposition has said the money could be moved in small tranches to protect it from creditors. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has reached an agreement with U.S. prosecutors that would let him contact some current or former employees of cryptocurrency companies he once controlled, even as he accepts other restrictive bail conditions.In a letter to the judge overseeing the former billionaire’s criminal fraud case, defense lawyer Mark Cohen said the terms more clearly define how Bankman-Fried can communicate with others as he prepares for his scheduled October trial.Cohen also offered to withdraw a request that Bankman-Fried be able to access and transfer cryptocurrency, if U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan approves the agreement over communications.Bankman-Fried, 30, has been free on $250 million bond and required to live with his parents in California since pleading not guilty to looting billions of dollars from the now-bankrupt FTX exchange.Kaplan had last week temporarily barred Bankman-Fried from contacting employees of FTX and his hedge fund Alameda Research, or using apps such as Signal that let users auto-delete messages.Those restrictions were added after prosecutors raised concern that Bankman-Fried might tamper with witnesses.The proposed agreement would still bar Bankman-Fried from entering financial transactions over $1,000, except to pay his lawyers. A spokesperson for U.S. Attorney Damian Williams in Manhattan did not immediately reply to a request for comment.Cohen said prosecutors agreed to exempt some people from the no-contact order, without specifying names. Bankman-Fried’s lawyers had proposed that he not be allowed to talk with select colleagues, including former Alameda chief Caroline Ellison, former FTX technology chief Zixiao “Gary” Wang and former FTX engineering chief Nishad Singh. Ellison and Wang have pleaded guilty and are cooperating with prosecutors. Last month, prosecutors first sounded the alarm about possible witness tampering.They cited a Jan. 15 message that Bankman-Fried sent to the general counsel of the FTX U.S. affiliate, proposing that they speak on the phone to try to “have a constructive relationship” or “vet things with each other.” Bankman-Fried’s lawyers countered that their client was simply trying to provide help.Monday’s agreement would let Bankman-Fried communicate by phone and email, use WhatsApp if he installed monitoring technology and preserved his messages, and use Zoom, iMessage and Facebook (NASDAQ:META) messenger. He would remain unable to use Signal. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) – For generations, society has grappled with the question of whether money brings happiness. Now a new book has some answers – with the data to back it up.The easy answer, according to Robert Waldinger and Marc Schulz, authors of “The Good Life”: No, money will not buy you happiness. That’s according to the findings of the Harvard Study of Adult Development, the world’s longest study on happiness.    The more complex answer is money is obviously a big part of our everyday lives, and up to a certain income level ($75,000 in well-known study) will indeed affect our satisfaction, in terms of meeting basic needs and providing for our familiesBeyond that, though, there is no correlation. For most financial experts, the point is to not treat money as the ultimate goal, but as a means to an end, to shape a meaningful existence.Since 1938, the Harvard Study of Adult Development has tracked people – now up to three generations – to find out what really makes for a satisfying life and what does not. “Money can’t buy us happiness, but it’s a tool that can give us security and safety and a sense of control over lives,” says Schulz, who is also a psychology professor at Pennsylvania’s Bryn Mawr College. “At the end of the day, life is really about our connections with others. It’s our relationships that keep us happy.”Here is what the world’s longest study on happiness can teach us about our lives, our careers and, yes, our money:CAREER SUCCESS DOES NOT EQUAL HAPPINESSOur tendency as a society is to imagine that being a big achiever will solve all our problems. Not so. In the Harvard study, the sample of participants with “more prestigious jobs and more money were no happier in their lives,” Schulz says.The notion that you will be satisfied if you chase a money-oriented achievement – like a big promotion or a dollar figure in your 401(k) – pushes happiness into the future and always out of reach. Says Schulz: “The problem with that approach is that life passes you by.”TREASURE WORK FRIENDSHIPSYes, a main purpose of going into the office is for the paycheck. But do not discount all the little daily interactions with the people around you in the office, because it turns out they are very important indeed.“A large part of our waking lives is spent at work, and if you believe that relationships make for a good life, then you need to think about your connections at work,” Schulz says. “Those relationships are important to your well-being, because you spend such a large amount of time with them.”PREPARE FOR POST-RETIREMENT LIFE NOW Retirement represents a significant risk to many people’s happiness and sense of self-worth: Since so many people are so identified with their careers and job titles, retirement can take all that away and make them feel totally lost.That is why mid-career professionals should think about that gear-shifting now. Build a life framework with purpose and meaning and networks outside of the office. That could mean taking up new activities, or repairing old friendships, or volunteering for favorite causes.“People who have done best in retirement are those who lean into it, and think about their social connections, and rebuild their networks outside of work,” Schulz adds.VALUE EXPERIENCES OVER THINGSAccumulating more stuff is not going to nudge the happiness meter, according to the study’s findings. Instead, think in terms of experiences.“Rather than buying a bigger house or a nicer car, if you use your money to share experiences with others, that money will get you a better return on happiness,” Schulz says. That might be a vacation, or treating your family to a nice dinner. “Those are the kinds of activities that allow us to connect,” he adds.DO A MINI-HARVARD STUDY – ON YOURSELFHow the Harvard Study operates is by checking in with respondents – 724 original participants, some of whom are still around, and 1,300 descendants – for occasional reflection and self-evaluation. Are they happy? Are they where they want to be? Are there areas where they are falling short?There is no reason why the rest of us cannot do the same, with periodic check-ins. That way, if your career and friendships and finances are not working together to give you a life of purpose and meaning, you can adjust course.“It’s absolutely critical,” Schulz says. “There are gains to be made by doing some self-examination, and figuring out whether you are doing what’s really important to you.” More

Dealing with antisocial behaviour must be made a priority in attempts to boost growth in “left-behind” areas, according to a new report, as the UK government plans a crackdown on street-level drug use.Findings by the right-leaning think-tank Onward, published on Monday, identified neighbourhood crime as a key concern in five communities in England and Wales. The report called on local leaders to focus on policing disorderly behaviour black spots and providing preventive youth services.It comes as ministers prepare to launch a national antisocial behaviour strategy in the coming weeks, potentially including a ban on recreational use of nitrous oxide, or “laughing gas”.It is unclear whether the proposed anti-crime measures will include extra funding. Critics argue that cuts to councils and policing under austerity have left local areas with few levers with which to tackle the problem.Onward visited five places — Oldham in Greater Manchester, South Tyneside in the North East, Walsall in the West Midlands, Clacton on the south-east coast and Barry in south Wales — to look at what could be done to raise prospects.It pointed to concerns in Oldham, Walsall and Clacton over dangers on public transport, street drinking and violence, with residents feeling “powerless”.“In almost every area we spent time in, this put tackling crime and reducing antisocial behaviour as the public’s top priority for ‘levelling up’,” it said, adding that this often “came as a shock” to local councillors, who “didn’t see it as the key factor holding them back”.A ban on recreational use of nitrous oxide, or laughing gas, is possible © Gareth Fuller/PA“Levelling up” refers to the Conservative government’s pledge to raise economic growth and prosperity in left-behind areas. “For members of the public, feeling safe on the streets was an essential foundation to other routes to regeneration: commuting to better paying jobs, spending money in shops or restaurants in the town centre, or becoming a member of a new community group,” the report found. Public order offences have more than doubled since 2015 across England and Wales, the report highlighted, but in the worst-affected areas they had more than quadrupled. Onward called for a focus on “hotspot” policing that targets patrols in “town centres, tram stops or parks”, as well as more joint agency working and an increase in youth activities.A Home Office insider said a new national strategy with a focus on public drug use and “disrupting and tackling antisocial behaviour” was “likely” in the coming weeks.Jessica Studdert, deputy chief executive of New Local, a network of more than 70 councils, said crime and antisocial behaviour affected “people’s quality of life and neighbourhood safety” but could “easily go under the radar for national policymakers”.However, she said it was “impossible to ignore” the effect of cuts since 2010 to council budgets; in England these have reduced by around 20 per cent in 12 years. “As a result, local leaders have limited room for manoeuvre and are forced to focus on immediate pressures at the expense of the community-embedded prevention this report highlights is so integral to social fabric, like activities for young people,” she added.Oldham council’s Labour leader Amanda Chadderton said it was “easy” for think-tanks to “make a judgment about what is best for our town”, adding that creating real, long-term change was harder. “If the government was serious about levelling-up, they would be putting power and resources in the hands of local leaders to do just that,” she said.The Labour party has linked falling public confidence in community policing to a halving of police community support officers since 2010. More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.Asian stocks on Tuesday come off the back of their worst day since June hoping for recovery, but vulnerable to an expected interest rate hike in Australia, potentially critical comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and deepening U.S.-Sino tensions.Another close in the red for Wall Street on Monday won’t boost the likelihood of a rebound much either, as U.S. markets lurch to price in a ‘higher for longer’ Fed this year. The pick of the Asian economic data and events calendar will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision and subsequent guidance from policymakers. The RBA is expected to deliver a fourth consecutive quarter-point interest rate hike to 3.35%, after inflation unexpectedly rose last year to a 33-year high of 7.8%.However, figures on Monday showed retail sales are falling for the first time in a year, a sign that higher rates are maybe starting to bite.In Japan, meanwhile, speculation on the next Bank of Japan governor is intensifying. According to the Nikkei newspaper, Japan’s government has sounded out BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to succeed Haruhiko Kuroda. Many analysts see him as a pragmatic policymaker who will prefer tip-toeing toward any exit from the BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy rather than make sudden changes to a stimulus program he helped create. And the yen is on the slide. It fell 1% on Monday and is down 3% since Friday, its biggest two-day fall in three years. Yen vs dollar 2-day change: https://tmsnrt.rs/3jEdowD Generally speaking, Asian markets are feeling the heat from the sudden U.S. interest rate outlook shift following January’s freakishly strong U.S. jobs report released on Friday.The Fed’s implied ‘terminal’ rate in June is now well above 5.00%, the implied year-end rate is higher than current the fed funds range, markets are now pricing in only 20 basis points of easing this year and the two-year yield has spiked around 40 basis points. This may be the tightening of financial conditions Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues are seeking. Or they may be irrational and unjustified market swings in response to one data point that will prompt a response from Powell when he speaks at the Economic Club of Washington on Tuesday.The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index slumped 2.4% on Monday, its worst day since June last year, Chinese stocks had their worst day this year (blame Beijing-Washington tensions too) and Hong Kong tech stocks fell 3.6%.Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Fed Chair Powell speaks (Economic Club of Washington)- Australia interest rate decision – China FX reserves (January) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao) More

(Reuters) – Lending officers at major banks told the Federal Reserve that in the final three months of last year they tightened standards and saw reduced demand across a wide array of business and consumer credit fronts. The Fed reported Monday in its January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey that the threshold to get credit rose for commercial and industrial firms, as well as commercial real estate borrowers. At the same time, these prospective borrowers reduced their demand for loans. On the consumer front, survey respondents said that real estate and related lending standards got tighter amid declining demand for the same period. The same dynamic played out for auto, credit card and other types of consumer lending. The survey also found that the trends that played out across bank lending in roughly the final quarter of 2022 will dominate 2023. “Banks, on balance, reported expecting lending standards to tighten, demand to weaken, and loan quality to deteriorate across all loan types.” The prospect of weaker loan demand is driven by changes in monetary policy and the need to navigate an uncertain economy.The most common reasons for the expected state of lending this year “included an expected increase in interest rates, expected lower spending or investment needs, an expected deterioration in terms other than interest rates, an expected easing in supply chain disruptions, and an expected decrease in precautionary demand for cash and liquidity,” the report said. The latest data points to a softening economy. “There were unfavorable changes across many details” of the survey, said Daniel Silver, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, who added the data “looks consistent with an economy that is weakening.” The Fed’s report took stock of lending during a period where the Fed was pressing forward with aggressive rate rises aimed at lowering high levels of inflation. Those rate increases took the central bank’s rate target from near zero levels as of last March to between 4.5% and 4.75% after the rate hike at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The pace of Fed rate rises has been very aggressive and officials have said that as part of their bid to cool overheating levels of demand, tighter financial conditions are a key part of the process. “It is important that overall financial conditions continue to reflect the policy restraint that we’re putting in place in order to bring inflation down to 2%,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the Fed’s 25 basis point rate hike last Wednesday. “Financial conditions have tightened very significantly over the past year,” Powell said. That said, as the Fed has approached the likely endgame for its rate hike cycle, financial conditions have grown a touch easier. Some believe this could make the Fed more aggressive with rate hikes in the longer run, as it needs financial conditions to stay tight as part of its bid to lower price pressures. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said Monday closely watched Financial Conditions Index eased by 2.0 basis points to 99.57 in the last week due to rising stock prices that offset a higher dollar.Research released Monday by the San Francisco Fed warned that financial conditions, as measured by lower stock prices and higher bond yields, may need to tighten even further to achieve the Fed’s aims. More

Health unions and the government remained deadlocked in their dispute over NHS workers’ demands for higher pay after ministers made clear they would not reopen the wage settlement in England for 2022-23.As up to 40,000 nurses and ambulance workers in England and Wales walked out on the biggest day of strike action in the health service’s history, health minister Maria Caulfield said “above-inflation pay rises” would fuel the problem of rising prices.Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, is contending with the biggest wave of strikes in the public and private sectors in decades, with workers pushing for higher pay amid the cost of living crisis.But after ministers made conciliatory noises to health unions in January, hinting they might reopen the pay settlement for NHS workers in England for the current financial year, they have since hardened their position.The idea of a £1,000 one-off payment for NHS staff, floated by health secretary Steve Barclay, was blocked by the Treasury. Downing Street did not deny that ministers had not held any serious talks with health unions in recent weeks.Challenged on whether the government would be willing to the reopen the pay settlement for NHS staff in 2022-23, Caulfield raised the issue of constraints posed by affordability.“The secretary of state [for health] and the PM have been clear that that would be extremely difficult to do because it wouldn’t just be for nurses . . . There are a range of public sector workers who would also want the same request and across the board you are talking about billions of pounds to pay for that,” she said.The government has instead pressed unions to engage in discussions about evidence to be submitted to independent review bodies about the pay awards for NHS staff in 2023-24.But Sara Gorton, head of health for the union Unison, said NHS workers were on strike to improve pay and staffing in 2022-23. “Talking about the wage rise they’re due in April won’t end the dispute,” she added.The GMB union indicated it was willing to meet Barclay for talks, but only if the pay settlement for 2022-23 was on the table.Pat Cullen, Royal College of Nursing general secretary, accused the UK government of “punishing England’s nurses”, when the Welsh and Scottish administrations had been willing to negotiate on pay for the current financial year. She urged Sunak to “negotiate and halt this action now”.The Welsh government’s offer on Friday of improved pay for NHS workers in Wales for 2022-23 prompted the RCN and the GMB, which represents ambulance workers, to call off strikes scheduled for Monday in the principality. Unite, another union representing ambulance workers, proceeded with walkouts.Sunak’s reluctance to give ground to the health unions risks costing him politically: a YouGov survey at the end of January suggested about two-thirds of the public still supported strikes by NHS workers. In confirmation that the NHS strikes pose a particular problem for ministers, the same YouGov poll found more people opposed than supported strikes in other sectors, including rail.NHS insiders said the mood seemed to be hardening among ministers and unions.The NHS Confederation, which represents organisations across the sector, warned the health service’s ability to meet a government target to ensure that by the start of April all patients waiting 18 months or more for non-emergency surgery would have been treated, was now hanging in the balance because of strikes. More

Today’s top storiesTurkey was hit by a second earthquake after more than 1,900 were killed by the biggest tremor in 80 years, causing destruction across the country and in neighbouring Syria. Recriminations continued over the US decision to shoot down China’s weather/spy balloon at the weekend. Here’s our explainer on the affair.The Rothschild family is planning to take its investment bank, Rothschild & Co, private as rising interest rates and economic uncertainty bring an end to the period of frenzied dealmaking during the pandemic.For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogGood evening.A $17bn takeover bid — potentially the biggest acquisition deal this year — has thrown the spotlight on the surging global demand for gold, driven by huge purchases from central banks as well as retail investors seeking protection against inflation.The move by US-listed Newmont, the world’s biggest gold miner, to buy Australian rival Newcrest, could spark a bidding war as other groups look to consolidate. A deal would reunite the companies. Newcrest was originally established as Newmont’s Australian arm in the 1960s before being spun out in 1990 after it merged with BHP’s gold assets. It would also put four of Australia’s five largest gold mines under the control of one company and require Australian government approval.The increase in gold demand to a record 4,741 tonnes last year — the highest in a decade — has been fuelled by “colossal” purchases from central banks, led by China and Russia. Its status as a safe haven asset at a time of geopolitical upheaval has been turbocharged by the “mistrust, doubt and uncertainty” that has followed the decision of the US and its allies to freeze Russia’s dollar reserves. Prices have also been buoyed by the expected slowdown in US interest rate increases.The last time the world experienced this level of buying marked a big turning point in the global monetary system. A European rush to buy US gold in 1967 led to a run on the price, the collapse of the London Gold Pool of reserves and the eventual end of the Bretton Woods system that tied the value of the US dollar to the precious metal.And while disruption from the war in Ukraine has helped make gold a sought-after asset, it is also useful for would-be sanctions busters, notes Jonathan Guthrie, head of the FT Lex column. Bullion can be traded much more easily beyond US oversight than dollars.Given its history of embroilment in money laundering, sanctions enforcers might want to take a close interest in the London market in particular, he suggests. More than 9,000 tons of gold, worth more than $500bn, sits in repositories within the M25 — more than in Fort Knox. Need to know: UK and Europe economyToday’s action by nurses, ambulance workers and paramedics in England and Wales is the biggest strike in NHS history. As the health system nears its 75th birthday, global health editor Sarah Neville tackles the big question: is the NHS broken? The head of pharma company Sanofi said UK economic policy meant the country was falling behind in healthcare innovation.The “wrecking ball of higher inflation and interest rates” has led to UK construction activity hitting its lowest level of activity in more than two years, according to new PMI survey data. Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said it was too early to be sure high inflation had been defeated and that more interest rate rises were likely.Need to know: global economyUS president Joe Biden gives his state of the nation address tomorrow. Our latest Big Read examines his case for a second term and whether good news on job creation — as evidenced in Friday’s bumper figures — could override voters’ anger over inflation. While foreign tourists have returned, many Japanese are still reluctant to travel for fears of catching Covid-19, as well as the weakness of the yen. Before the pandemic, about 20mn Japanese citizens travelled overseas each year and spent $21.3bn, according to the UN World Tourism Organization.

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The head of Anglo American, one of South Africa’s biggest investors, warned that the country’s economy was under threat from power cuts, logistical problems and corruption.An export boom and the end of pandemic restrictions helped Indonesia’s economy to expand at the highest rate in almost a decade last year. Gross domestic product growth of 5.3 per cent was fuelled by a 16.3 per cent jump in exports, led by commodities such as coal.Millions of former dabai or “big whites” — the hazmat-suited workers who enforced China’s strict pandemic restrictions — have been left jobless, disillusioned and angry by the abrupt end of Beijing’s zero-Covid policy.Need to know: businessThe Premier League accused Manchester City of breaching financial rules after a four-year investigation into the English football champions. An independent commission will have the power to impose sanctions, including “unlimited” fines, points deductions or even expulsion from the league.A $3.9bn accounting scandal surrounding retail chain Americanas has shaken Brazil, ensnaring some of the nation’s richest men and sparking bitter recriminations and accusations of fraud. Financial markets are rallying as fears of an economic slowdown start to fade and investors pile back into riskier assets. “Markets are pricing in the end of the inflation problem and . . . very heavily discounting the risk of a tail event,” said one research chief.The search wars are back, this time focused on the use of artificial intelligence. Big Tech companies are using their cloud computing arms to pursue tie-ups with AI start-ups, sparking questions about their role as both suppliers and competitors in the battle over “generative AI”. Columnist Rana Foroohar warns of the dangers of important regulatory decisions being left to experts behind closed doors.While global air travel is recovering, the US domestic market has been hit by cancelled flights, missing bags and disappearing routes, spurring calls for tighter regulation. The boom in online shopping and congestion at ports drove a big increase in air freight during the pandemic, but will the growth continue as shipping problems ease? Watch our new video.

Video: Can ecommerce deliver a long-term boost for air freight? | FT Transact

The world of workOrganisations need to rethink conventional career timetables and introduce elements such as a “mid-life MOT” if they are to lure back older workers, says columnist Camilla Cavendish.How long could you survive without a regular income? Here are some tips on how to survive the financial shocks of redundancy.Some good newsChinese researchers have discovered a way of producing hydrogen by splitting seawater without the need to desalinate or purify it first. FT science commentator Anjana Ahuja explains the technology and its significance. More