Economy

America’s central bank is expected to raise rates by a quarter point on Wednesday. The question now is what comes next.Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point at their meeting this week, further slowing what had been an aggressive pace of rate increases in 2022 as they wait to see how swiftly inflation will fade.Moving gradually will give Fed officials more time to assess how high rates need to rise and how long they need to stay elevated to fully wrangle inflation, both of which are looming and crucial questions. The answers will help to determine how much damage the Fed inflicts on the labor market and broader economy in its quest to control price increases.Central bankers raised interest rates from near zero to above 4.25 percent last year, and they are expected to lift rates to a range of 4.5 to 4.75 percent on Wednesday. Investors will be even more attuned to what may come next, and will parse the Fed’s 2 p.m. statement and the subsequent news conference by the Fed chair Jerome H. Powell for clues about the future.Fed officials predicted in December that they would lift rates to just above 5 percent in 2023, then hold them at a high level throughout the year. But incoming data will drive how high the Fed raises rates and how long they keep them at that level.Since the Fed’s last decision, inflation has meaningfully slowed, and data on the economy show that consumers are becoming more cautious and beginning to spend less. Anecdotes suggest that shoppers may be more sensitive to prices, which would make it more difficult for companies to continue passing along big price increases. At the same time, the job market remains very strong, and economists and central bankers have warned that a re-acceleration in growth and inflation remains possible. That is likely to keep the Fed wary of prematurely declaring victory over inflation.“They’re going to stay vigilant on inflation — I don’t think they’re going to break out the ‘mission accomplished’ banner just yet,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at T.D. Securities. “If they don’t send the signal that they really want to get inflation under control, the market could over-interpret that as a signal that they’re done. That’s not the message they want to send.”Wall Street will be focused on one word in particular in the Fed’s policy statement: “ongoing.” In recent months, central bankers have stated that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

TOKYO (Reuters) -A panel of academics and business executives on Monday urged the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to make its 2% inflation target a long-term goal instead of one that must be met as soon as possible, in light of the rising cost of prolonged monetary easing.The re-defining of the price target must be made in a new policy accord between the government and the central bank that would replace the one crafted in 2013, the panel said.In the proposal, the panel also called for the need to have interest rates rise more in line with economic fundamentals, and normalise Japan’s bond market function.”The way the BOJ conducts monetary policy must be revamped,” Yuri Okina, a panel member who is considered as among candidates to become the next BOJ deputy governor, told a news conference.”By making 2% inflation a long-term goal, the BOJ can make its monetary policy more flexible,” she said.With rising raw material costs pushing up inflation well above its 2% target, the BOJ has seen its ultra-loose policy come under attack by investors betting it will hike interest rates when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s second, five-year term ends in April, and those of his two deputies in March.Nobuyuki Hirano, former president of MUFG Bank and member of the panel, said the BOJ’s yield control policy has become unsustainable, as it is causing big distortions in the yield curve and making the bond market dysfunctional.”Given such distortions, we must correct the BOJ’s policy into one that is more flexible,” Hirano told the news conference. “It’s too dangerous to keep going this way.”In parliament on Monday, Kuroda reiterated the importance of maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy.”Uncertainty regarding Japan’s economy is extremely high. It’s therefore important now to support the economy, and create an environment where companies can raise wages,” he said.”Japan has yet to foresee inflation stably and sustainably achieve our 2% inflation target, backed by wage hikes,” Kuroda said. “As such, we must maintain our 2% inflation target and our ultra-loose monetary policy.”Under strong political pressure to beat deflation, the BOJ signed a policy accord with the government in 2013 and committed to achieving 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible.”With inflation exceeding the BOJ’s target, critics say the current accord has become outdated and is preventing the BOJ from phasing out its massive stimulus programme.Given recent public complaints over rising inflation, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who will choose the next BOJ governor, has signalled the chance of revising the policy accord under Kuroda’s successor.The panel consisted of about 100 academics, business executives and labour union officials, including those who are members of key government councils.Kishida delivered a speech at one of the panel’s meetings in October, a sign of the influence its proposals have on the government’s economic policy. More

But the story three of the world’s largest central banks, set to hold their first policy meetings of 2023, tell isn’t that of a “Goldilocks” scenario of a gentle slowdown in growth and a gradual easing in inflation. Here’s a look at the week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Dhara Ranasinghe and Naomi Rovnik in London and Ira Iosebashvili and Lewis Krauskopf in New York.1/WILL THE FED FOLD?Will the Federal Reserve tone down its hawkish rhetoric in the face of cooling inflation or stick to its guns? Investors widely expect a 25-basis point rate increase at the Feb. 1 meeting and for rates to stop short of hitting 5%.Fed officials, however, have indicated they expect the key policy rate to top out at 5.00-5.25% this year.Whatever signals the Fed sends could play an importing role in determining the longevity of the rally so far this year. Dollar bears, meanwhile, will watch for dovish leanings that could further accelerate a decline in the greenback. The currency has tumbled nearly 11% since hitting multi-decade highs last September. 2/ BACK FROM BREAK Chinese markets are back from the week-long Lunar New Year holidays, and will look to pick up where they left off – at a five-month peak for mainland blue chips. The mood should stay bullish after officials said COVID deaths have dropped about 80% from the peak earlier this month, running counter to worries that the New Year travel rush would trigger a fresh wave of infections. Some experts even suggest that the surge in cases after the government abruptly reversed its zero-COVID policies last month has resulted in hyper-speedy herd immunity. The impact of China’s Great Reopening may show up in PMIs next Tuesday, with the services sector bouncing back to expansion. Manufacturing is likely still contracting, but that has a lot to do with the timing of the New Year holiday, and next month should see a strong rebound.3/ YOUR MOVE, ECBThe ECB meets Thursday and is widely tipped to raise rates by 50 bps to 2.5%. Markets care most about what happens next and that’s not clear. Policy hawks are already pushing for more of the same in March. After all, inflation is well above the 2% target as preliminary January data out on Wednesday is likely to show.Futures price in a further 100 bps worth of tightening between now and July. Amundi reckons ECB rates could reach 4%.But the doves are getting louder. Yes, inflation is high but it’s off record peaks, they say. So, caution is needed before pre-commiting to rate hikes beyond February.Markets, whipped around by the differing opinions, will be looking for the ECB to speak with one voice. That, at least, is the hope. 4/THE “A” TEAM The three “A’s” — Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) – three of the top four U.S. companies by market value – all report earnings on Thursday.Over 100 companies in the S&P 500 deliver results as the earnings season gets into full swing. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), the fourth of the U.S. megacaps, has already reported results. Its cloud business hit Wall Street targets, but it delivered a lacklustre forecast that offered little cheer to the broader tech sector. Tech companies generally are under pressure to grow while cutting costs ahead of a potential recession. S&P 500 earnings are set to have fallen 2.9% from the year-ago period, according to Refinitiv IBES data as of Tuesday. 5/THE END MAY BE NIGH The Bank of England, the first of the major central banks to turn hawkish, is expected to deliver its tenth rate hike since December 2021. Money markets predict the BoE will raise rates by 0.5 percentage points to 4%. Headline inflation moderated in December to 10.5%, but it’s still over five times the Bank’s official target. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analysts say this will be the BoE’s final “forceful” hike. Recent data has shown a sharp contraction in UK business activity and lacklustre Christmas retail sales. Economists polled by Reuters now expect the BoE to stop at 4.25%. But many cited sticky core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, as the main reason they could be wrong. More

LONDON (Reuters) – The European Central Bank looks set on Thursday to deliver another large interest rate rise to curb inflation. What it does after that is less certain.ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking in Davos recently, stressed the need for monetary policy to “stay the course.”Investors are keen to get a sense of just how long and how far the central bank will keep hiking rates.”ECB policymakers think they have to kill inflation and will only stop hiking when they a see a big improvement in the inflation outlook,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.Here are five key questions on the radar for markets.1/ What will the ECB do on Thursday?The ECB raising its deposit rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 2.5% is seen as a done deal, so markets will focus on what Lagarde has to say.Signs of cooling inflation have prompted markets to push down expectations for where rates will peak to around 3.3%. Policymakers have already challenged market moves, and expectations could move back up towards 3.5% if a brighter economic outlook prompts further hawkish messaging.”The ECB needs to be hawkish,” said Eoin Walsh, partner at TwentyFour Asset Management. “I don’t know whether Lagarde will say that market pricing of the terminal rate is too low, but I expect her to reiterate that the ECB will continue to raise rates.” ECB expected to hike again https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-CENTRALBANKS/zjvqjebzqpx/chart.png 2/ Will the ECB send any signals about March and beyond?Markets hope so since the outlook beyond Thursday is contentious. Some, including Dutch and Slovak officials, support a big rise in March. Comments from Lagarde suggest she would also back such a move.Policy doves are pushing back as headline inflation comes down. Italy’s Fabio Panetta believes the ECB should not commit to any specific move beyond February.”There were questions recently about why markets don’t understand what the ECB will do next,” said ING’s Brzeski. “Part of the reason is that markets are too optimistic but there’s also a question about the ECB’s own communication chaos and who we should listen to.” ECB’s path to terminal rate https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/myvmogzazvr/chart.png 3/ Are more details on quantitative tightening (QT) likely?The ECB plans to reduce bonds bought under its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) by 15 billion euros on average per month from March to June. UBS expects the ECB to reiterate that the pace of QT after June will be decided later, when some economists expect an acceleration.”The ECB will provide further guidance on the balance sheet rundown, including on how the different APP programs will be handled and importantly also on the planned unwind of cross-country holdings,” said Patrick Saner, head of macro strategy at Swiss Re (OTC:SSREY). Waiting for QT https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y1mO40 https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-CENTRALBANKS/zjpqjernzvx/chart.png 4/ How quickly is core inflation likely to come down?That’s not clear and predicting the path of inflation has been tricky.With updated ECB projections not out until March, Lagarde is likely to be pressed on how the ECB views core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. The ECB targets headline inflation at 2%, but officials are focused on a core measure.January euro zone inflation numbers on Wednesday could prove timely. Headline inflation eased to 9.2% in December, but a core measure also excluding alcohol and tobacco, rose to 5.2% from a 5%. Euro zone inflation off record highs in December 2022 https://www.reuters.com/graphics/EUROZONE-MARKETS/ECB/klpygzaxjpg/chart.png 5/ Is the ECB more upbeat on the growth outlook?The ECB’s Mario Centeno reckons recession may be avoided. Business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, while JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) has raised its first-quarter economic growth forecast to 1% from a contraction of 0.5% — echoing a similar move from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).”Yes, the ECB will for sure acknowledge the better domestic and external growth backdrop,” said Swiss Re’s Saner.”This will actually also allow them to make the case that rates need to go higher and stay there for a while, as a stronger demand environment inhibits core disinflation which is what matters most.” Euro zone back to modest growth https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-ECONOMY/PMI/zgpobroqrvd/chart.png More

It probably hasn’t escaped anyone that the world looks a bit less laissez-faire than it used to. Industrial policy is back, in a big way. But what does that actually mean?That’s what the “long-term strategy” research unit at JPMorgan — led by the veteran Jan Loeys — has tried to tackle in their latest report. They reckon the shift towards more industrial policy is “likely to continue in an era of resurgent strategic competition”. That means more measures such as state loans and grants, tax credits, and trade support (tariffs are so passé). Less obviously and Davosy, the report authored by Alexander Wise and Loeys argues that this will be a good thing overall — as long as you live in one of the major economic blocs, or work in a favoured industry. Investors might theatrically gnash their teeth, but it seems they can relax. Here are their main bullet points:— Empirical evidence suggests that it will probably increase aggregate employment, investment, R&D, innovation, and output. There is no evidence of effects on margins, so increases in revenues translate into increases in earnings. Pecuniary benefits also directly raise profits.— In an era of resurgent strategic competition, industrial policies are likely to be pursued competitively by countries. Thus, it is most likely to be effective in countries with large economic mass, fiscal capacity, and effective governance. Competitiveness will be harmed in countries without this capacity.— Based on these criteria, the US, China, and the EU are most likely to effectively pursue industrial policy. However, industrial policy in China is pursued to a large degree through state-owned enterprises, with probable adverse impacts on private enterprise. EM ex-China is unlikely to be able to effectively marshal sufficient resources to compete.— Any global resurgence in industrial policy has implications for strategic asset allocators in several dimensions. It should affect sector allocations, country allocations, and allocations to small versus large caps.— Industrial policy is likely to benefit Information Technology, Industrials, Energy and Basic Materials. This is one motivation for a strategic equity overweight on these sectors in the US and the EU, but an underweight on these sectors in competing EM countries. This is also an argument for a strategic overweight on the US and the EU.— The largest benefits of industrial policy should accrue to small-cap equities, since it can alleviate financial constraints, which more frequently affect smaller companies. Large caps are also more likely to incur costs associated with countervailing duties or market access restrictions.Anyway, if you’re interested in the full report, we’ve uploaded it here. Let us know what you think. More

Leading central banks are due to raise interest rates this week to the highest levels since the financial crisis, stoking anxiety among some investors that this month’s bond market rally underestimates evidence of persistent inflation. Bond prices have rapidly rebounded since the start of the year from last year’s historic sell-off, as markets bet that interest rate rises will slow and, in the case of the US Federal Reserve, even go into reverse. But some investors have doubts. “I think it’s just a matter of the market kind of waking up to what the macro environment really is, as opposed to what they hope it is,” said Monica Erickson, head of investment grade credit at DoubleLine Capital. “[It] is going to be super difficult again for the Fed to . . . get inflation down to that magical 2 per cent number without putting us into a recession.”Maureen O’Connor, global head of high-grade debt syndicate at Wells Fargo, said: “The credit markets are effectively pricing in a no-recession outcome. But that’s not the consensus base case that most economists are forecasting.”A Bloomberg index tracking high-grade and junk-rated government and corporate bonds around the world has returned 3.3 per cent so far in 2023, putting it on course for its strongest January since its inception in 1999. Inflows into US and western European corporate bond funds are set for their best January on record, totalling $19.3bn up to January 26, according to EPFR data.The Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will all hold policy meetings this week. Investors expect the Fed to slow the pace of its monetary tightening to 0.25 percentage points, raising rates to the highest level since September 2007, the start of the global financial crisis. The BoE and the ECB are widely expected to lift rates by half a percentage point to their highest levels since autumn 2008 when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.There are growing indications that underlying price pressures are proving persistent in the face of these rapid and globally co-ordinated rate rises — and the gap between investor expectations and economic data is widening.Market measures of inflation suggest traders now expect inflation to eventually fall close to the Fed and ECB targets of 2 per cent. But price growth still stands at 6.5 per cent in the US, and 9.2 per cent in the eurozone. Core inflation — which omits volatile food and energy costs and is closely watched by central bankers — remains strong.Consumers and businesses in most advanced economies expect inflation to remain higher than central bank targets in the medium term despite recent declines, surveys show. Policymakers closely watch such indicators, as well as market-based measures of expectations, because they can feed wage demands, fuelling further inflation.“Inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as higher expectations trigger the inflationary conditions that are envisioned,” said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at US bank Citigroup. Central banks’ concern was “ensuring that inflation expectations don’t ratchet upward from here”.

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Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics, said that “on almost all measures, inflation expectations are still much higher than their pre-pandemic levels and above the levels that would be consistent with the major banks’ 2 per cent inflation targets”. If central banks keep rates high for a protracted period or raise them by more than investors expect, the bond market rally could unravel.

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Yields on 10-year US Treasuries, a benchmark for borrowing costs across the globe, have slipped to 3.5 per cent from 3.9 per cent at the end of December. That has boosted the appeal of corporate bonds, which typically offer higher returns than their government counterparts.Credit spreads — the premium that investors demand to hold corporate bonds over high-grade government debt — have narrowed since the start of January. The gap in yields between US investment grade debt and Treasury notes has tightened by 0.1 percentage points so far this year.Spreads on lower-rated high-yield bonds have tightened even more, losing almost 0.6 percentage points.“The investment grade market is pretty priced for perfection right now,” said O’Connor. “I worry about the black swan events and the catalysts that could catapult spreads wider from here.”Such concerns have not stopped a wave of cash pouring into bond markets.“There is a lot of money chasing yields,” said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer for fixed income at BlackRock. “In an environment where growth is slowing, where the equity market is not appealing, people are saying — there is an attractive yield and I can lock this rate up.” More

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian shares started cautiously on Monday in a week that is certain to see interest rates rise in Europe and the United States, along with U.S. jobs and wage data that may influence how much further they still have to go.Earnings from a who’s who of tech giants will also test the mettle of Wall Street bulls, who are looking to propel the Nasdaq to its best January since 2001.Asia has been no slouch either as China’s swift reopening bolsters the economic outlook, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 11% in January at a nine-month high. Early Monday, the index was up 0.1% as investors looked forward to China’s market resuming after the Lunar New Year holidays, while Japan’s Nikkei added 0.2%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.1%.Investors are confident the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, followed the day after by half-point hikes from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, and any deviation from that script would be a real shock.Just as important will be the guidance on future policy with analysts expecting a hawkish message of inflation is not yet beaten and more needs to be done.”With U.S. labor markets still tight, core inflation elevated, and financial conditions easing, Fed Chair Powell’s tone will be hawkish, stressing that a downshifting to a 25bp hike doesn’t mean a pause is coming,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), who expects another rise in March.”We also look for him to continue to push back against market pricing of rate cuts later this year.” There is a lot of pushing to do given futures currently have rates peaking at 5.0% in March, only to fall back to 4.5% by year end.EYEING APPLEYields on 10-year notes have fallen 31 basis points so far this month to 3.518%, essentially easing financial conditions even as the Fed seeks to tighten.That dovish outlook will also be tested by data on U.S. payrolls, the employment cost index and various ISM surveys.As for Wall Street’s recent rally, much will depend on earnings from Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc and Meta Platforms, among many others.”Apple will give a glimpse into the overall demand story for consumers globally and a snapshot of the China supply chain issues starting to slowly abate,” wrote analysts at Wedbush.”Based on our recent Asia supply chain checks we believe iPhone 14 Pro demand is holding up firmer than expected,” they added. “Apple will likely cut some costs around the edges, but we do not expect mass layoffs.” Market pricing of early Fed easing has been a burden for the dollar, which has lost 1.5% so far this month against a basket of major currencies.The euro is up 1.4% for January at $1.0870 and just off a nine-month top. The dollar has even lost 1% on the yen to 129.92 despite the Bank of Japan’s dogged defence of its uber-easy policies.The drop in the dollar and yields has been a boon for gold, which is up 5.6% for the month so far at $1,928 an ounce. [GOL/]China’s rapid reopening is seen as a windfall for commodities in general, supporting everything from copper to iron ore to oil prices. [O/R]Beijing reported Lunar New Year travel trips inside China surged 74% from last year, though that was still only half of pre-pandemic levels.Early Monday, Brent was up 79 cents at $87.45 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 66 cents to $80.34. More

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has hurt the Mongolian economy, its prime minister has said, claiming financial damage including the loss of airline revenues and difficulty in importing necessary supplies from Russia. Almost a year on from the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent imposition of wide-ranging sanctions by the US and its allies on Moscow, the landlocked democracy of just 3.3mn people sandwiched between Russia and China is still reeling from the impact. “Even though Mongolia is a democratic country it is also under pressure because of the sanctions imposed on Russia,” Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene, the country’s 42-year-old prime minister, told the Financial Times in an interview. He added that the punitive measures amounted to “a double sanction on Mongolia even though it is not our fault”. The collateral damage ranges from complications in paying Russian companies on which Oyun-Erdene says Mongolia is “wholly dependent” for fuel, to the loss of revenues from airlines that once flew over the country. “The situation in Ukraine is not just a conflict between two countries,” the prime minister said. “It is having a negative and huge impact on the world economy and especially on small and landlocked countries including Mongolia . . . Economic sanctions have to be imposed based on extensive research because they’re having extensive impacts and negative influences on other countries.”Airlines that once operated Europe-Asia routes through Russian airspace also flew over Mongolian territory, for which they paid Ulan Bator valuable “navigation fees”. Those have dissipated as Russian airspace bans — implemented by Moscow in retaliation for EU measures targeting Russian planes — have forced many European airlines to fly either over the North Pole or take a more southerly route across Central Asia and Turkey. Mongolia’s prime minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene: ‘The situation in Ukraine is not just a conflict between two countries’ © Lisi Niesner/Reuters“Because aeroplanes cannot go over Russia we are lacking our navigation revenues,” Oyun-Erdene said. “Second, we import our fuel from Russia and as [Russian energy] companies and banks are under sanctions, we are facing payment issues.” He added that war-related shortages in Russia for commodities such as diesel fuel, sunflower oil and mining equipment had led to “disruption of some products we use on a daily basis”.Oyun-Erdene has highlighted these issues during a flurry of diplomacy over recent months, including a trip to Germany in October and an August visit to Ulan Bator by UN secretary-general António Guterres.Wang Yi, China’s then foreign minister, also travelled to Mongolia late last year shortly after being promoted to the Chinese Communist party’s politburo.“We do believe that China, the EU and Germany have a great influence on [the Ukraine] situation,” Oyun-Erdene said. “In this context I paid an official visit to Germany and also we had discussions with our Chinese counterparts, in particular during Wang Yi’s visit to Mongolia.” Mirroring its dependence on Russia for critical supplies, Mongolia is equally reliant on Chinese demand for its coal, copper and other commodity exports. Coal and copper account for about 60 per cent of the country’s total exports, followed by gold and iron ores at 20 per cent. In late November Oyun-Erdene presided over the opening of a new cross-border rail link into China that his government hopes will increase pre-pandemic coal exports of about 30mn tonnes per annum to as much as 80mn annually.“Ninety per cent of Mongolia’s exports go to China and Mongolia is wholly dependent on Russia in terms of fuel. We’re also dependent on our two neighbours for food and other products,” the prime minister said. “But Mongolia is a parliamentary democracy and [our] people’s mindset and society is very different from those countries . . . Mongolia is landlocked, but we’re not mind-locked.”This democratic mindset can fuel popular pressure on Mongolian leaders that their counterparts in China and Russia rarely have to contend with. In early December large crowds, angry at the alleged theft of state-owned coal assets, threatened to storm government buildings in Ulan Bator. “The frustration and mass protests were a result of uneven wealth distribution that has taken place over the past 32 years,” Nyambaatar Khishigee, justice and home affairs minister, said in a separate interview with the FT, referring to the period since Mongolia’s transition to democracy in 1990.

Oyun-Erdene’s administration has since launched wide-ranging investigations into government officials and executives at state-owned natural resource and transportation companies. The government has arrested dozens of people for alleged bribery, abuse of power and “unjust enrichment”, including police seizure of 7.3bn tugriks ($2.1mn) from the home of a state railway executive.But the government is challenging protesters’ allegations that as much as 40tn tugriks worth of state coal reserves have been stolen since 1995 — compared with official earnings of 45.2tn tugriks from coal exports over that period. More