Economy

Plummeting demand for new homes and the rising risk of mortgage defaults has caused UK housebuilders to pull back from new projects, putting government targets for new housing at risk. Redrow on Friday became the latest large builder to warn of a sharp contraction in sales, echoing rivals Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, which this week reported significant falls in the rate at which buyers were committing to new purchases, with demand dropping as much as 50 per cent in recent weeks.The warnings from three of the UK’s biggest developers have provided the clearest sign yet that the housing market has turned, with higher mortgage rates and the prospect of a lengthy recession holding buyers back. Taylor Wimpey said the number of buyers pulling out of deals had jumped by more than 50 per cent — with almost a quarter of purchases being cancelled in the second half of the year so far — and Persimmon executives said they were seeing the first evidence of prices beginning to fall — by 2 per cent since July.“These are really unusual times, the environment has changed quite rapidly,” said Taylor Wimpey chief executive Jennie Daly, who described this as a “transitional period” as the market adjusts to much higher borrowing costs.Higher mortgage rates have frozen many would-be buyers out of the market. More worryingly, the increase — accelerated by former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini” Budget in September — has raised the likelihood of homeowners defaulting on their loans when they have to remortgage.Analysts at Goldman Sachs this week said they expected house prices in the UK to fall and that higher rates, increasing unemployment and the threat of recession were likely to markedly increase the risk of delinquencies.As the outlook becomes increasingly grim, the three UK builders all said they would slow down their investment in new land and try to conserve cash.“Recent instability in financial markets has had a negative impact on the housing market and the business has had to adapt,” said Redrow chair Richard Akers on Friday, as the company announced it had halved the rate at which it was buying land. The major housebuilders are responsible for the bulk of new private homes built each year, meaning their retreat is likely to leave the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year, recently reaffirmed by housing secretary Michael Gove, in tatters.Clyde Lewis, an analyst at Peel Hunt, said that delivery could easily fall to 190,000 new homes next year, from a peak of 243,000 in 2019/20.“There is a housing shortage at so many different levels. There’s nowhere near enough retirement properties or affordable housing and people are blocking beds in the NHS because there’s not space for them in the community,” said Lewis. Gove has clashed with the sector over who should pay to fix unsafe buildings in the wake of the 2017 fire at Grenfell tower and developers fired a warning shot last month, saying new levies could stop them building new affordable homes. But now builders are hoping for a surprise measure in next week’s Budget. “If the government is serious about increasing housing output — and Gove has intimated that he is — he is going to [have to] provide some help to get housing output up. Maybe he goes from being detested by the housebuilders to being half liked,” said Lewis. More

Equities on Wall Street yesterday had their strongest day in more than two and a half years as the rapid rise in inflation slowed, leading investors to bet that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy may finally begin to ease.The Fed has increased its benchmark policy rate by 0.75 percentage points at each of its past four meetings, but after data yesterday confirmed inflation rose by a less than expected annual rate of 7.7 per cent in October, the slowest pace since January, rate rise expectations eased.Stocks, however, soared. The S&P 500 index finished 5.5 per cent higher — its biggest gain since April 6 2020. The Nasdaq Composite, which is dominated by technology and high-growth companies, closed up 7.4 per cent.The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 0.27 percentage points to 3.82 per cent, its sharpest move since March 2020, and the dollar dropped 2.3 per cent against a basket of six peers in its worst day in seven years.In futures markets, investors bet there was an 85 per cent chance of a smaller 0.5 percentage point rise at the Fed’s next meeting on December 13 and 14, compared with a 57 per cent chance on Wednesday.“The fact the Fed may slow down from here means what could break out is a conversation not just about recession rather than inflation, but a conversation about maybe avoiding a recession entirely,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, a research firm.Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, and Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed, yesterday became the latest Fed officials to back a slower pace of rate rises by the US central bank. Their counterparts at the Boston, Chicago and Richmond branches of the Fed have already called for the supersized rate rises to slow. “In the upcoming months, in light of the cumulative tightening we have achieved, I expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance,” Harker said yesterday.Do you think the US will avoid recession? Email your thoughts to [email protected] and I may feature an extract in a future edition of FirstFT or vote in our latest poll. Thanks for reading — Gordon

Five more stories in the news1. Global regulators circle FTX Authorities in Japan, Australia and the Bahamas, where FTX is based, have all taken actions today as worries mount that customers in one of the world’s biggest digital asset venues could face severe losses. Sam Bankman-Fried, the FTX founder, is racing to raise as much as $8bn to save his company. Go deeper: Alphaville untangles the knotty empire of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX.2. UK economy shrinks The UK economy contracted more than expected in September, suggesting predictions by the Bank of England that the country is heading for a prolonged recession could be true. Gross domestic product fell 0.6 per cent between August and September, the Office for National Statistics said. Next week chancellor Jeremy Hunt will unveil his autumn Budget when he is expected to announce spending cuts and higher taxes.

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3. China eases Covid quarantine rules Beijing has eased coronavirus quarantine requirements for close contacts and international travellers, in the first relaxation of Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid strategy since the Communist party congress last month. The relaxation comes as cases in the country continue to rise, with 10,000 new infections confirmed today, the highest daily tally since late April.4. Judge blocks Biden’s student debt relief programme A US federal judge has blocked Joe Biden’s scheme to forgive thousands of dollars in student loan debt for millions of Americans, dealing a blow to a White House policy targeting a primary concern of younger voters. Mark Pittman, a judge in the northern district court of Texas, ruled that Biden’s plan to forgive student loan debt was “unlawful”.5. Elon Musk wrestles with Twitter’s finances The social media platform suffered another exodus of executives yesterday while its new billionaire owner told a meeting of staff that bankruptcy was not out of the question. “Honestly, it feels like chaos,” one staffer told the FT. A rollercoaster week: Chief features writer Henry Mance reflects on his week on the newly-owned platform.Have you kept up with the news this week? Take our quiz. The days aheadBiden travels to COP27 The US president will arrive at the global climate conference with momentum from his party’s better than expected performance in the midterm elections. But he will come under pressure to pledge to larger reductions in US emissions in order to meet Paris accord commitments. After his trip to Sharm el-Sheikh, Biden flies to Asia for the G20 summit where he will hold his first in-person talks with Chinese president Xi Jinping since becoming president. Economic data The University of Michigan will release new data that is expected to show a small decrease in US consumer sentiment and also shed new light on Americans’ inflation expectations. In Mexico, figures are expected to confirm that industrial output rose by 0.1 percentage points in September, taking the annual rate up to 4.5 per cent from 3.9 per cent, according to economists polled by Refinitiv. National holidays Armistice Day or Remembrance Day commemorations take place across Europe, the US and the Commonwealth today and over the weekend to remember those who lost their lives in conflict. In the US it is the Veterans Day federal holiday.What else we’re readingRed and Blue America refuse to budge The most stunning takeaway from the US midterm elections, writes John Burn-Murdoch, is not how much has changed, but how little. The elections resulted in the second lowest amount of vote-switching in a US election since data collection began in 1952 — narrowly beaten by the general election two years ago.Trump and Murdoch’s marriage of convenience breaks down Someone who has switched, albeit within the Republican party, is Rupert Murdoch. The media mogul’s backing of former president Donald Trump has ruptured in spectacular fashion following the midterm elections. Big Tech job cull may be the start of things to come Massive job cuts are the most visible sign of downsizing across the tech industry, writes Richard Waters, but behind the lay-offs there is a story of misjudgment and weak management and a new, low-growth phase ahead. Managing the polycrisis era for executive pay Senior pay packets have recovered nicely from the bout of pandemic-induced austerity. Now it is time to show if Covid-era notions of solidarity and alignment were genuine, writes Helen Thomas.The ethical case for watching this World Cup Many human rights activists, NGOs and trade unions believe the Qatar-hosted tournament can be used to shine a light on myriad abuses, including the exploitation of labourers who built the stadiums. But Simon Kuper argues that not boycotting may do more good than not.FilmCritics Danny Leigh and Leslie Felperin review the week’s six best cinema releases, including the return of Black Panther, the first since the tragic death of Chadwick Boseman.

Letitia Wright returns as Shuri, mourning her late brother King T’Challa, in ‘Wakanda Forever’ More

Daimler Truck has warned that the supply chain is “somehow broken”, despite an easing in the global chip shortage that has plagued the car industry since the onset of the pandemic.The German group, the world’s largest truckmaker, issued the warning as it bumped up its full-year outlook, bucking inflation and the disruptions from the war in Ukraine.“It’s all over the place — tyres, electric parts, engines and in some cases just nuts and bolts,” said Jochen Goetz, Daimler Truck chief financial officer, referring to the problem of getting car components.“[During the pandemic] a lot of investments were postponed for good reasons on the supplier side. Now we’ve seen a sharp increase in demand and some of the midsized suppliers are simply not capable of ramping up fast enough,” he added. “The supply chain is somehow broken.”Daimler Truck on Friday posted €13.5bn in group sales for its third quarter, up 27 per cent year on year. Adjusted earnings before interest and tax jumped 159 per cent to €1.3bn, with the company pointing to larger sales volumes and success in passing on cost increases to customers. The company, which was last year spun out of Mercedes-Benz, said it had so far this year sold nearly 41,000 more trucks and coaches than it did in the first nine months of last year.It now expected full-year group revenues to be between €50bn and €52bn, up from a previous estimate of €48bn-€50bn.The spin-off and flotation of Daimler’s truck unit last year followed Volkswagen’s decision in 2019 to spin off its lorry business, Traton. Rival Traton similarly posted growing sales and profits last week as it warned that supply chain bottlenecks were causing delays in delivering vehicles.Goetz said the shortage of chips was partially being addressed by “technical changes” that enabled the truckmaker to use different types of semiconductors, while some chipmakers had successfully ramped up production.“But just to be clear, there are still some chips that are constrained and most likely will be constrained for the whole of 2023,” he added.Daimler Trucks sold 134,972 trucks and buses in the third quarter, up from the 106, 304 vehicles it sold in the same period last year. Yet, supply chain constraints remained an issue.“Bottlenecks in the supply chains continued to have a negative effect on truck production, meaning that demand could not always be fully met,” the company said. More

A steep drop in German output will help drag the EU into recession this winter, as higher inflation and the Ukraine war take a heavy toll on the bloc’s economy, the European Commission has predicted. Output across the union will contract in the current quarter and the first three months of 2023, with Germany suffering one of the biggest falls in activity as surging energy costs curtail household spending power and force factories to curb production. Inflation in the EU will be higher than the commission forecast in the summer, running at 7 per cent over the course of 2023, down only modestly from this year’s expected 9.3 per cent. The predictions add up to a grim period for the EU’s economy, which had bounced back following the worst of the pandemic before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and ensuing energy price crisis. Germany, the union’s largest economy, has been particularly hard-hit because of the importance of its energy-intensive industry. “The shocks unleashed by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine are denting global demand and reinforcing global inflationary pressures,” the commission said. “The EU is among the most exposed advanced economies, due to its geographical proximity to the war and heavy reliance on gas imports from Russia.”Output growth in the 27-member EU will decelerate to just 0.3 per cent in 2023, far below a prior forecast of 1.5 per cent published this summer, the commission projections showed. Germany is on course for a 0.6 per cent full-year decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, according to the outlook, the worst performance in the euro area. While EU output growth is predicted to remain positive over the current year, at 3.3 per cent, the economy will begin contracting in the final three months of the year, shrinking 0.5 per cent, before declining by a further 0.1 per cent during the first quarter of 2023. Nevertheless, rapid price growth will probably leave the European Central Bank on course for further monetary tightening with a further rate rise to at least 2 per cent predicted at its next meeting in December. The commission raised its forecast for eurozone inflation to 8.5 per cent this year, 6.1 per cent next year and 2.6 per cent in 2024, according to the figures. That compares with its July forecast for inflation in the bloc to fall from 7.6 per cent this year to 4 per cent next year. The ECB is due to publish its own forecasts next month, which will play a significant role in determining the pace and extent of future interest rate rises. The central bank has already lifted its deposit rate from minus 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent since July.Investors will be watching for signs that inflation could soon peak in the eurozone, after consumer prices slowed in the US in October, according to data released on Thursday. This prompted a surge in equity and bond markets as markets bet the US Federal Reserve would stop raising rates earlier than previously expected.Several senior ECB policymakers have said in recent days that a mild recession will not be enough to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target on its own and therefore it will need to raise rates above the point at which it restricts growth and inflicts pain on the labour market.“There’s no time for monetary policy to pause,” said Isabel Schnabel, an ECB executive board member, on Thursday. “We will need to raise rates further, probably into restrictive territory, to bring inflation back to our medium-term target in a timely manner.”The commission expects the economy to gain some traction by 2024, expanding by 1.6 per cent in the EU and 1.5 per cent in the euro area. But it warned the outlook was surrounded by an “exceptional degree of uncertainty” because of the war, with the biggest threat stemming from the risk of energy shortages in the winter of 2023-24. “The EU economy has shown great resilience to the shockwaves this has caused,” said Paolo Gentiloni, economics commissioner. “Yet soaring energy prices and rampant inflation are now taking their toll and we face a very challenging period both socially and economically.”  More

The U.K. economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022, signaling what could be the start of a long recession.
However, the third-quarter contraction was less than the -0.5% expected by analysts.
The Bank of England last week forecast the country’s longest recession since records began.

The Bank of England has warned that the U.K. is facing its longest recession since records began a century ago.
Huw Fairclough | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — The U.K. economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022, signaling what could be the start of a long recession.
The preliminary estimate indicates that the economy performed better than expected in the third quarter, despite the downturn. Economists had projected a contraction of 0.5%, according to Refinitiv.

The contraction does not yet represent a technical recession — characterized by two straight quarters of negative growth — after the second quarter’s 0.1% contraction was revised up to a 0.2% increase.
“In output terms, there was a slowing on the quarter for the services, production and construction industries; the services sector slowed to flat output on the quarter driven by a fall in consumer-facing services, while the production sector fell by 1.5% in Quarter 3 2022, including falls in all 13 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector,” the Office for National Statistics said in its report Friday.
The Bank of England last week forecast the country’s longest recession since records began, suggesting the downturn that began in the third quarter will likely last deep into 2024 and send unemployment to 6.5% over the next two years.
The country faces a historic cost of living crisis, fueled by a squeeze on real incomes from surging energy and tradable goods prices. The central bank recently imposed its largest hike to interest rates since 1989 as policymakers attempt to tame double-digit inflation.
The ONS said the level of quarterly GDP in the third quarter was 0.4% below its pre-Covid level in the final quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, the figures for September, during which U.K. GDP fell by 0.6%, were affected by the public holiday for the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will next week announce a new fiscal policy agenda, which is expected to include substantial tax rises and spending cuts. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has warned that “difficult decisions” will need to be made in order to stabilize the country’s economy.
“While some headline inflation numbers may begin to look better from here on, we expect prices to remain elevated for some time, adding more pressures on demand,” said George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars.
“Should next week’s budget prove indeed ‘difficult’ for taxpayers, as expected, consumption will probably be further suppressed, and the Bank of England should begin to ponder the impact of a demand shock on the economy.”
Dutch bank ING sees a cumulative hit to U.K. GDP of 2% by the middle of 2023, which would be comparable to the country’s recession in the 1990s.
ING Developed Markets Economist James Smith said the bank was penciling in a 0.3% contraction in economic activity in the fourth quarter, as consumer spending falls away, which would cement the technical recession.
“As the winter wears on, we also expect to see more strain emerge in manufacturing and construction – both of these sectors suffered noticeably during the 1990s and 2008 recession,” Smith said.
“The fall in manufacturing new orders, linked to falling global consumer demand for goods and rising inventory levels, as well as higher energy costs, point to lower production by early 2023. Likewise, the sharp rise in mortgage rates, and the very early signs of house price declines, point to weaker building activity through next year.”
ING expects the Bank of England’s interest rate hiking path to peak at around 4%, but Smith noted that a lot will depend on next week’s fiscal announcements.
“A lot of the focus understandably will be on how the Chancellor closes the forecasted fiscal deficit in 2026/27. But above all, we’ll be looking for details on how the government will make its energy support less generous from April, something which has the greatest scope to reshape the 2023 outlook,” he said.

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I love receiving emails from FT readers, but I was not prepared for the inbox tsunami following this week’s Money Clinic podcast episode about rising childcare costs. Professional parents are being financially crippled. Paul Bridges, a 35-year-old dad and FT reader from south-west London pays £2,200 a month for full-time childcare for his two-year-old daughter — the same amount as his mortgage. He and his wife work full time in well-paid jobs. They have £1,500 left to cover their other monthly costs including bills, groceries and driving their daughter to the nearest full-time nursery place they could find. “At the risk of sounding whiny, we are running at a net loss, and burning through the savings we had luckily cobbled together before our daughter was born,” he says.Another FT reader from Clapham emailed me in dismay as her child’s nursery has just increased full-time fees for under-threes to £30,000 a year: “They are children under three years old, not doing an MBA!”Research by the Early Years Alliance, a nursery industry group, has shown how shortfalls in government funding for so-called “free” hours has created a funding gap that leaves nurseries with no option but to charge parents more — or close their doors. About 400 nurseries in England have folded since August 2020, reducing choice and increasing prices in what is already the second-most costly childcare system in the world, according to the OECD. There’s more bad news. Costs for childcare providers in England are likely to rise by 9 per cent over the next tax year, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank, putting the funding model under yet more strain. Ahead of the Autumn Statement, there are growing calls to address the cost and complexity of childcare — especially as tax freezes will affect working parents more than they might realise.

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“For two-thirds of families, we know that their childcare costs are the same or more as their rent or their mortgage,” says Joeli Brearley, founder of campaign group Pregnant then Screwed, which has been leading calls for reform. The group says one in 10 parents have left their jobs due to childcare issues and 57 per cent have cut their working hours due to childcare costs or availability. “It means they end up on what we affectionately call ‘the mummy track’ where you’re working part-time, have very little chance of career progression and, of course, you’re being paid less,” she says. Our podcast guests debated the complexity of accessing the 30 “free” hours per week of nursery care for three to four-year-olds and the tax-free childcare system. The latter is worth up to £2,000 a year, per child — yet many working parents have never heard of it. For every £8 you pay in to your tax-free childcare account, you receive a £2 top-up. The good news is parents can use this with any Ofsted-registered service, including nurseries, nannies and childminders, plus after-school and summer holiday clubs. However, there’s a high danger the clunky admin could lead to tantrums. “It makes me want to throw the laptop out of the window at the end of each month,” said one parent battling to reconcile the quarterly calculations. Others complain the limited value of the benefit has been wiped out by cost increases passed on by childcare providers. Maybe the chancellor will surprise us by increasing it at the Autumn Statement, but I won’t be holding my breath. However, the combination of rising inflation and frozen tax thresholds is chilling news for parents — especially if one of you gets a pay rise or a bonus which pushes your pay into six-figure territory. Tax-free childcare can be used in conjunction with the 30-hours scheme, but to qualify for either, each parent has to be working with an annual income below £100,000. Introduced in 2017, if this threshold had increased in line with inflation, it would be nearly £120,000 today.Of course, £100,000 is also the threshold at which the £12,570 personal allowance starts to be tapered away at a rate of £1 for every £2 you earn, equivalent to a 60 per cent marginal tax rate. Brought in by then chancellor Alistair Darling in 2010, had this threshold increased in line with inflation, it would now be just shy of £140,000. So parents have a lot to lose if one of them busts the £100,000 threshold. A parent with income of £99,999 could potentially be better off than one with income of £125,140, says Alistair Cunningham, a chartered financial planner at Wingate Financial Planning. Why? Paying full whack for your 30 free hours while losing up to £2,000 in tax-free childcare and your £12,570 personal allowance could wipe out your increased income — especially if you have more than one child, or live in an expensive area like Clapham.

“This is definitely an incentive to earn less than £100,000 or completely smash it,” Cunningham says. Another pinch point in the tax system is the £50,000 threshold at which child benefit starts to be removed (parents lose 1 per cent of benefit for every £100 of income above this). Introduced by George Osborne in 2013, this threshold would start at nearly £63,000 had it risen in line with inflation. Parents are being doubly squeezed by the effects of all this “fiscal drag” and above-inflation increases in the cost of childcare. Frankly, it’s no wonder the UK birth rate is plummeting!Those who are still able to use the legacy system of childcare vouchers have a tax advantage, as these are purchased via salary sacrifice arrangements which can reduce taxable pay below these thresholds. If parents don’t qualify for these, they could reduce their income by increasing their gross pension contributions by enough to keep their childcare subsidy — but the numbers aren’t going to stack up for everyone. Many couples have begrudgingly accepted that part-time work and reduced career progression for the lower-earning parent is the only feasible option. “What is the point of subsidising university education if we then cripple the career prospects of graduates who pause or quit their jobs to look after their children?” asks Bridges. He and many other readers feel an instant boost to economic growth could be generated by enabling families to care for children more affordably, keeping parents in the workforce without fear of being financially ruined. But if there’s no hint of reforming our broken childcare system at the Autumn Statement next week, I think a lot of adults will be bawling — never mind the kids. How have increased childcare costs affected you? And is there a solution? Share your experiences and thoughts in the comments below.Claer Barrett is the FT’s consumer editor and the author of ‘What They Don’t Teach You About Money’. [email protected]; Twitter and Instagram: @Claerb More

The UK economy shrank more than expected in September and contracted in the third quarter for the first time since the start of last year, suggesting the country has entered what is forecast to be a prolonged recession.Gross domestic product, or GDP, fell 0.6 per cent between August and September, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, a larger drop than the 0.4 per cent forecast by economists polled by Reuters.With the economy also contracting in August, output fell 0.2 per cent between the second and third quarter, the first quarterly contraction in more than a year.The economy is now 0.2 per cent smaller than in February 2020, before the pandemic.About half of September’s fall reflects the extra bank holiday for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, according to the ONS.

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However, Sanjay Raja, economist at Deutsche Bank, said the GDP contraction in the third quarter was the result of “continued weakness in household and business confidence, higher inflation and higher interest rates in the economy”.The Bank of England forecast in September that the third quarter would be the start of a long recession lasting for two years, reflecting tighter financial conditions and the squeeze on real incomes from higher prices.The Queen’s funeral “may end up marking the start of an ‘annus horribilis’ for the whole of the UK”’ said Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst, at the financial company Wealth Club.The latest figures provide a sobering backdrop to next week’s Autumn Statement in which the chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to tighten fiscal policy even though the economy could already be in recession. James Smith, research director at the think-tank Resolution Foundation, said the chancellor would “need to strike a balance between putting the public finances on a sustainable footing, without making the cost of living crisis even worse, or hitting already stretched public services”. Commenting on the GDP data, Hunt said: “I am under no illusion that there is a tough road ahead.”The UK quarterly figures contrast with a 0.2 per cent expansion in the eurozone. All the major economies, including the US, Germany and France, have now grown above their pre-pandemic levels. Instead, in the three months to September, the UK economy was 0.4 per cent smaller than in the fourth quarter of 2019. The Bank of England expects that the UK economy will still be smaller than before the pandemic by at least the end of 2025.

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Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the UK economy had slipped to the back of the G7 pack again, “beset by more intense headwinds from fiscal and monetary policy, and substantial long-term supply-side damage from Covid and Brexit”.In September, output in the services sector fell sharply by 0.8 per cent while manufacturing production stagnated and construction was up 0.4 per cent. In the quarter, real household expenditure fell 0.5 per cent and output in consumer-facing services fell 0.8 per cent. There were also widespread declines across most manufacturing industries. Business investment fell 0.5 per cent to 8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. Rising government spending and net trade, as imports fell, limited the quarterly fall. UK goods exports fell 4.7 per cent in September and were below pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter after adjusting for inflation. Ana Boata, head of economic research at the credit insurer Allianz Trade, said the UK’s export performance “is well below par, reflecting the seismic shift in the trading environment for businesses in the post-Brexit and post-Covid era, rising interest rates and the inflationary environment”. More