Economy

Donald Trump has made his strongest suggestion yet that he will soon launch a third bid for the White House in 2024, telling a crowd of supporters in Ohio last night that he would make a “very big announcement” on November 15.Speaking at a rally in Ohio on the eve of midterm elections that will determine control of Congress for the next two years, Trump said: “We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow.”But he added that his “announcement” would come one week after the midterms, at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.“This incredible journey that we are on together has only just begun,” Trump, 76, said.The former president was speaking on the eve of midterm elections that could prove highly significant for the legislative ambitions of the Biden administration. Tens of millions of Americans will flock to the polls today to vote in elections that will determine control of Congress, the Senate and dozens of state and local government contests across the country.According to the final polling averages, Republicans are expected to win enough seats in the House of Representatives to regain control of the lower chamber of Congress — which they will use to stymie Biden’s agenda and launch investigations into his administration.But the balance of power in the Senate will depend on the outcome of a handful of races — particularly in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia — that were neck-and-neck heading into the last stretch of the campaign.By yesterday afternoon, more than 41mn Americans had already cast their ballots by voting early either in person or by mail, pointing to high turnout that could exceed the 122mn people who voted in the 2018 midterm elections.President Joe Biden rounded out his campaign travels in the Democratic stronghold of Maryland, where polls suggest former investment banker Wes Moore is the odds-on favourite to be elected governor.Asked by journalists at the White House following the rally whether Democrats could hold on to the reins of the House of Representatives, the president said: “I think it’s going to be tough, but I think we can. I think we’ll win the Senate. I think the House is tougher.”Opinion: Donald Trump’s future looms over the US midterms, writes US political correspondent Courtney Weaver.Go deeper: The FT News Briefing team has travelled the country and produced a crash course to today’s elections.Do you think Trump will run in 2024 and if he does will he win? Email your thoughts to [email protected] or hit reply on this email to send me your thoughts — GordonFive more stories in the news1. Exclusive: Cyprus accountants break from PwC to retain Russia-linked clients A group of partners at the Big Four accountant has launched a breakaway firm in the Mediterranean island to take work from Russia-linked clients whom PwC will no longer touch following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. PwC has operated a global “sanctioned anywhere, sanctioned everywhere” policy that goes beyond what is legally required.2. Global law firms scale back hiring as slowdown begins Profits at many of the largest international law firms are shrinking rapidly because of an increase in costs and a decline in the number of mergers and acquisitions and public offerings, leading some to scale back hiring as they prepare for a deep global recession.3. Twitter says user growth has picked up since take over Twitter said that user growth is “accelerating” and hit “all-time highs” during Elon Musk’s first week at the helm. In an email sent to some advertisers yesterday and seen by the Financial Times, Twitter said growth of its monetisable active daily users — a homegrown metric that counts the number of logged-in users to whom the platform shows advertising — accelerated to 20 per cent, from 15 per cent in the second quarter.4. Tiger Global losses mount after whipsawing tech valuations Losses at the New York-based hedge fund mounted in October after being buffeted by the whipsawing value of technology stocks in the US and a sell-off in China. The firm’s flagship hedge fund lost 5.4 per cent in October, taking losses this year to a new low of 54.7 per cent, according to a person with knowledge of the figures.5. UN chief calls for rich countries to agree ‘climate solidarity pact’ At the opening session of COP27 climate conference yesterday António Guterres said the international financial system should be reformed to support lower income countries that were burdened by debt and which needed money to recover from natural disasters. He singled out the US and China as two countries that should lead efforts to agree a new “climate solidarity pact”.The day aheadOutlook for markets Contracts tracking Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 struggled for direction while those following the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4 per cent after a positive close yesterday. Company earnings Investors will be looking to Disney to provide more information on its efforts to grow its streaming service, Disney+, and its related bundling offerings. Signs of any inflationary pressures on consumers visiting its theme parks could also be of interest to shareholders. Private equity firm Carlyle Group, vaccine maker Novavax, shale producer Occidental Petroleum, semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries and industrial materials maker DuPont will report before the opening bell. Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp and “meme stock” cinema chain AMC Entertainment will join Disney in reporting after the market closes.Supreme Court The US’s highest court will hear oral arguments in Mallory vs Norfolk Southern Railway, a case that could drastically shift how companies are sued in the US. Currently, cases are brought against companies in the states where they are based or incorporated, but if the Supreme Court rules against Norfolk Southern, plaintiffs could sue companies in any state where they have licences, even if the claim happened elsewhere. What else we’re reading‘Loss and damage’ stalemate reaches breaking point It is often hard to predict what will happen at annual UN talks that, since 1995, have been held to thrash out global climate change agreements. But not this year. This meeting will focus on a divisive subject: whether rich countries should pay out to cover the costs of climate damage, writes Pilita Clark.

Typhoon damage to a Philippine coastal town in 2013 © Erik De Castro/Reuters

Pension funds after the UK government bond crisis Wild swings in the gilt markets, such as those caused by the Liz Truss government’s “mini” Budget in September, have taught UK pension funds an important lesson: assets that cannot be quickly converted to cash may deliver higher returns, but in a crisis pension schemes need assets they can sell fast.Hong Kong takes on Singapore for Asia’s crypto crown Hong Kong trails Singapore in terms of the value of crypto assets received but a sudden shift by regulators last week towards clearer rules to allow retail investors to trade digital assets after years of ambiguity has led executives to warn that Singapore may be squandering its lead.PoWs recall desperate fight for Mariupol In September, 215 prisoners in Russian captivity were released in the largest exchange since Vladimir Putin launched his full-blown invasion of Ukraine. Now they have shared their insights into a critical early battle of the war with the Financial Times. “It felt like one long day in hell”, said Major Oleksandr Voronenko.Middle management job cuts raise fears of ‘white-collar recession’ In previous downturns, blue-collar employees including construction workers and truck drivers have tended to be the first to lose their jobs, but this time American companies have been focusing headcount reductions on middle managers in office jobs.FT MagazineCan a really, really big flagpole unite America? That’s what the Worcesters are hoping for. They plan to build the world’s tallest flagpole and hoist the largest flag ever flown in New Hampshire. More

(Translated from Italian)Investing.com – The Russian invasion of Ukraine underlined the need to quickly move away from fossil fuels and toward an economy based on clean energy. So said European Investment Bank Vice President Ricardo Mourinho Félix during a press conference during the Web Summit 2022 in Lisbon.”The world of venture capital is changing a lot as a result of what is happening not only in the markets but internationally,” Mourinho said, but as a European public bank, “we must continue to invest in strategic sectors for the future, such as innovation, and energy.”Since 2000, the EIB has invested more than €200 billion in innovation, and digital & human capital, including €20 billion in the past year alone, and, the VP added, “we expect to reach the number again this year” through continued investments in technology that “will allow us to move closer and closer to an economy based on renewable energy.”Looking at geography, European interests have reached all corners of the world, but although they have had a presence in the country since 1995, EIB investments in China “are limited because of the domestic environment” and are directed toward “climate goals.”In general, “we are focusing on climate change-related goals to close the market gap between different states, and at the moment, our efforts are mostly focused in countries close to us such as the Balkans, Ukraine, Latin America, and some parts of Africa,” Mourinho stressed.Responding to an exclusive Investing.com question on the challenge of financial education, the EIB executive emphasized the importance of risk education and the negative effects on markets and the real economy.”We are in stochastic world where market shocks happen every day and are not pre-determined, so we have to be ready to know how to manage risks,” Mourinho said. “Non-risk appetite has negative effects especially among investors and businesses, and this changes the mindset and approach towards markets.””It is important for European citizens to be educated about financial risks and awareness of the actions that are taken in this area, as in the United States,” Mourinho said in conclusion.As a reminder, the press conference was held as part of an agreement between the EIB itself and Izicap, a French CRM and loyalty platform linked to credit cards that turns local merchants’ payment terminals into a powerful marketing tool.The agreement provides a 50 million loan for the duration of five to eight years, and is part of the European bank’s Innovation and Digitalization Growth Finance program. More

Turkey has issued $1.5bn in new dollar bonds in a sign of how this year’s vicious sell-off in emerging market debt has eased in recent weeks.The country sold the five-year debt at a yield of 10 per cent, Turkey’s Ministry of Treasury and Finance said on Tuesday. It brings the total amount Turkey has raised on international markets this year to $9bn.Turkey’s debt sale highlights how some investors are snatching up debt of riskier emerging market issuers after a big fall in prices in 2022 sharply increased the returns they receive for holding the bonds.Emerging market debt traded on international markets has recovered in price since late October, sending the premium in borrowing costs that investors demand to hold these bonds above ultra low-risk assets such as US Treasuries — known as the “spread” — falling.Spreads on emerging market sovereign debt on international markets reached 5.07 percentage points on Monday from 5.77 percentage points on October 21, according to JPMorgan’s global diversified emerging market bond index. It is still up significantly from 3.59 percentage points at the start of 2022.Turkey, which holds a junk credit rating, sold its new dollar bonds at a spread against US Treasuries of 5.61 percentage points, compared with 6.45 percentage points for its $2bn dollar bond in March. Almost three-quarters of the debt was purchased by investors outside Turkey, including those in the US, UK, Europe and the Middle East.Sentiment surrounding emerging markets has improved in recent weeks as investors bet the US Federal Reserve’s cycle of rate increases, which has weighed heavily on the asset class, will end in the middle of next year.“Into next year, a peak in [the Fed’s main interest rate] will eventually materialise, which can be a catalyst for relief rallies in EM,” JPMorgan said in a note to clients last week.Still, many analysts see a risk of further flare-ups causing a fresh wave of outflows.JPMorgan warned that concerns over rising interest rates could quickly morph into worries about US recession, something that could place fresh pressure on EM assets. Investors have already yanked $84bn from EM equity and debt funds this year, according to its data.

Turkey has also seen investors flee its domestic markets in recent years over concerns about the unorthodox policies pursued by president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a staunch opponent of high borrowing costs. The country’s central bank, which is in effect controlled by Erdoğan, has sharply cut interest rates this year, despite inflation reaching 85.5 per cent.The lira has tumbled 28 per cent against the dollar since the end of 2021, with many analysts saying the falls would have been much more severe if not for a series of measures aimed at steadying the currency ahead of elections in 2023.IMF staff, who visited the country in mid-October, last week said that to address challenges, the country should enact “early policy rate hikes accompanied by moves to strengthen the central bank’s independence”.“Such moves would help reduce inflation more durably and allow reserve buffers to be rebuilt over time,” the IMF team added. More

Parents took to the streets across the UK last month to protest against how women are pushed out of the workforce by an early-years system that costs workers in England almost two-thirds of their median weekly take-home pay. However, the inflexibility of the system also hits their earnings power and future career progression. On this week’s episode, presenter Claer Barrett hears from podcast listener Jess, who has been forced to work part-time to juggle childcare arrangements. Recently, her life was thrown into chaos when her daughter’s nursery suddenly closed its doors. Joeli Brearley, author and founder of campaign group Pregnant the Screwed, reveals that more than 60 per cent of women who terminated pregnancies in the past five years cited the high cost of childcare as a factor in their decision, according to the group’s own research. She explains the crisis points within the system, and why parents are pushing for childcare reform to move up the political agenda. Megan Jarvie, head of the Coram Family and Childcare charity, explains what government support is available to families with young children, offering a range of practical tips for listeners.

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To listen, click on the player link above, or search for Money Clinic wherever you get your podcasts. Money Clinic is keen to hear from listeners and readers. If you would like to get in touch, please email us at [email protected] or direct message Claer on social media. She is @ClaerB on Twitter, Instagram and TikTok. More

The EU will resurrect talks on a digital services levy if a global deal on the taxation of corporate giants fails, a senior European policymaker has warned.Zbyněk Stanjura, the finance minister of the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency, said a number of member states fear that the US will not implement the global agreement agreed last year, which would force the world’s 100 biggest multinationals to declare profits and pay more tax in the countries where they do business.In such an eventuality, EU governments would return to shelved discussions to implement a digital services tax, Stanjura predicted in an interview in Brussels, arguing that any such levy should be at a bloc-wide level.“I really am not able to say whether we are going to wait for six more months or nine more months, but I believe the longer these negotiations will take, the less of a chance of actually reaching an agreement,” said Stanjura. “If we are not able to reach an agreement mid or long term, then Europe will go back to talks about digital tax.”Last year, 136 countries backed a two-pronged deal that aims to address public anger over multinationals not paying enough tax. The first pillar of these reforms would force the largest companies to reallocate a share of profits to where they do business, ensuring they pay a fairer share of tax. The second pillar creates a minimum effective corporate tax rate, currently envisaged at 15 per cent.Progress on implementation has faltered despite OECD calculations that governments could collect more than $150bn in additional taxes every year from the biggest companies. Last month, Pascal Saint-Amans, the former OECD official who masterminded the tax reforms, predicted the US would ultimately sign up, given the alternative would be to see big tech companies confronted by a hodgepodge of separate digital services taxes in different countries.But the prospect of the reform being implemented before the OECD’s proposed deadline of mid-2023 has faded and the likelihood of Republican gains in Tuesday’s US midterm election could further dent hopes of progress.Any revival by the EU of unilateral plans to tax digital giants would spark trade tensions with the US, at a time when the two economies are already sparring over America’s proposed green subsidies.Peter Barnes, a tax specialist at the Washington law firm Caplin & Drysdale, said it was highly unlikely that the US would implement the first pillar by the middle of next year irrespective of how the midterms pan out. The measure was “contentious”, he said. “Getting legislation passed quickly is just not going to happen.”He added that if new digital services taxes were imposed by the EU or other countries, the US would likely bring legal action if the new taxes unfairly targeted American companies.As Czech finance minister, Stanjura helps oversee the council of the EU’s economic agenda during the country’s six-month presidency of the bloc, which ends in December. “I’m not confident we will be able to reach an agreement” in the OECD on the first pillar of the tax reform, he said. “To speak clearly without blurring the issue, I believe the problem is more on the American side.”The EU shelved a proposed digital levy in the summer of 2021 under US pressure given the progress at that time towards an OECD deal.EU officials stressed at the time that the digital proposal would differ from a 2018 plan that targeted the world’s largest tech companies — a measure that ultimately foundered. Brussels was instead planning to target hundreds of companies with digital operations, rather than specifically aim at US tech giants.The US has in the past threatened to impose sanctions on European countries that introduced digital services taxes.Stanjura was speaking ahead of talks on Tuesday among EU finance ministers in Brussels. The EU has also been unable to implement the second pillar of the OECD tax regime because of opposition from Hungary.The Czech minister said he remained confident that the EU would be able to strike an agreement implementing that aspect of the OECD programme, perhaps this year. But he added that it would be better for the whole world if both pillars were implemented at the same time. More

Deutsche Post DHL has raised its full-year profit guidance, saying it is on track to produce record results.The German logistics company said on Tuesday that it was now expecting to report earnings before interest and tax of €8.4bn in 2022, compared to previous guidance of €8bn.“The first three quarters of the year were the most successful in our company’s history,” said Frank Appel, chief executive. “Even if global growth is losing momentum, we are well on track to achieve the best result ever,” he added.Deutsche Post DHL, which has one of the world’s largest fleets of dedicated freight aircraft, was among the logistics groups to profit from the squeeze in international shipping during the pandemic when thousands of passenger planes — which usually carry cargo in their bellies — were grounded.Although pressure on international supply chains has somewhat eased, the company said cargo shipping has continued to drive profitability, as “revenue and [profits] again increased significantly due to ongoing high freight rates”. Revenues in the company’s freight division were up nearly 40 per cent year on year to €7.9bn in the third quarter, making up just under a third of total.Deutsche Post DHL said sales in the third quarter jumped to €24bn, 20 per cent ahead of the same period last year. Earnings before interest and tax were up 15 per cent to €2bn.There were signs, however, of the post-pandemic boom abating. Chief financial officer Melanie Kreis said the company was facing slowing growth momentum worldwide and pointed to international freight markets that were slowly returning to normal.Container congestion at ports had “decreased significantly” in the late summer, with “more capacity [ . . .] coming on to the market again”, which Kreis said was likely to spell “less dynamic growth” for Deutsche Post DHL.The company’s share price, which has dropped by more than a third in the past year after a pandemic-fuelled boom, was down just under 2 per cent on Tuesday morning.Online shopping and parcel shipments had also continued to rise in 2022, with these now settled at “a structurally higher level compared to pre-pandemic levels”.The company said rising gas prices had only a “minor” impact on profitability for its global business but were felt more acutely at its post and parcel business in Germany, where profits declined slightly.The rival of FedEx and UPS, which grew out of the privatisation of Germany’s mail service, employs almost 600,000 people in 220 countries. More

The most profitable tech company operating in China is not a homegrown internet giant such as Alibaba or Tencent, but California-based Apple.Its China business grew so quickly during the pandemic that it now generates more profit than the combined income of the country’s two biggest tech companies, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.Apple’s reliance on the country as its manufacturing base — with responsibility for 95 per cent of iPhone production, according to Counterpoint, a market intelligence group — leaves the business vulnerable to supply chain shocks.Apple on Sunday said global shipments of its newest high-end iPhones would be delayed because of recent Covid-19 outbreaks at Chinese plants run by its main assembler Foxconn. That came a week after it warned of “significant” headwinds to revenue growth owing to the impact of a strong US dollar and supply constraints.Yet when it comes to selling its devices to Chinese consumers, business has boomed. Operating profits in greater China — which includes Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and mainland China — have shot up 104 per cent over 24 months to $31.2bn in the financial year to September, eclipsing the $15.2bn earned by Tencent and the $13.5bn from Alibaba in their most recent 12-month period, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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The record profits underscore the bargain Apple has struck with Beijing, allowing the iPhone maker to sail through President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on homegrown tech groups while reaping the rewards from US sanctions, which are helping to damage its only real competitor in the country — national champion Huawei.It is the result of corporate diplomacy led by chief executive Tim Cook, whose regular visits to Beijing in pre-pandemic times, including meetings with Xi and Chinese tech executives, have helped avoid the fate of other western tech companies. The likes of Alphabet, Meta and Netflix have been locked out of the country.Critics argue Apple’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing has made it acquiesce too readily to authoritarian demands. The bargain has helped ensure the group maintains unfettered access to the country’s cost-effective labour force and factories, while becoming a leading luxury brand in the world’s biggest consumer market.“It’s clear to Beijing that it’s a two-way street. They get a lot of good back — a lot of employment out of it, and prestige,” said Brian Merchant, author of The One Device: The Secret History of the iPhone. “The pay, the standards are better for companies contracting with Apple. It’s helped boost wages towards the middle-class.”Filling Huawei’s voidIn 2019, Huawei had overtaken Apple in global smartphone sales, making it second to Samsung, and its fast growth was led by the Chinese market where Huawei and its sub-brand Honor had reached a combined market share of 42 per cent by March 2020, according to Counterpoint.

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“It was like a ‘national factory’ — Chinese citizens wanted to show how much they love the country and they went out to buy Huawei smartphones,” said Archie Zhang, analyst at Counterpoint.Huawei took an early lead with 5G-capable smartphones in August 2019 and had increased Chinese sales of the next-generation devices to more than 7mn a month by June 2020, according to M Science, an analytics group.Apple’s first 5G-equipped handsets, the iPhone 12 series, only hit the market in October 2020. By then, the Trump administration had imposed tough sanctions against Huawei, alleging the company was a security threat.The sanctions choked off access to key technology, including 5G chipsets, which proved crippling. Huawei’s market share in China collapsed in the second half of 2020, and it was forced to spin off Honor to save it from sanctions. In 2021, Huawei’s consumer business revenues halved to $38.3bn, according to S&P GMI.As Huawei’s share of the Chinese market plummeted from a high of 29 per cent in mid-2020 to just 7 per cent two years later, Apple’s share jumped from 9 per cent to 17 per cent, according to Counterpoint. Virtually all of the US group’s sales were in the premium segment, where its dominance climbed from 51 per cent to 72 per cent in three years.“Today, Apple has much of the $600-and-above market to itself,” Zhang said. “If you’re going to buy a $1,000 smartphone, there’s nothing else.”Apple’s China strategyApple has worked hard to satisfy the tastes of Chinese customers. When local competitors rolled out smartphones with bigger screens, more advanced cameras with low-light photography and a dual-SIM card slot, it was Apple’s Chinese employees who pushed the Cupertino-based company to follow suit, said one person close to the China operations. Cook has credited feedback from Chinese customers for “a tonne of features” including Night mode and a QR code reader. “Even 5G, in a lot of ways, was energised in China, because China is so far ahead in the coverage model for 5G,” Cook told a 22-year Chinese student in a rare interview meant for social media. “So we listen very carefully to our customers there.”

Concerns have grown that its manufacturing is too concentrated in one region, with Apple warning that Foxconn’s major iPhone facility was “operating at significantly reduced capacity” during the US group’s most lucrative period of the year.But for years, its efforts to stay on side with Beijing have paid off, such as by pledging big investments and staying quiet on sensitive subjects.It acquiesced to moving storage of Chinese user data to a data centre owned by the Guizhou provincial government, and it has removed thousands of apps from the local App Store at the request of Beijing’s censors.Dozens of news outlets have had their apps removed, while encrypted messaging platforms such as WhatsApp, Signal and Telegram are banned. Apple, which declined to comment, has argued it must respect the laws of countries in which it operates.“Apple’s vision of a controlled, locked-down ecosystem for the customer experience maps into the same vision, the same control, that the Communist party wants to have in China,” said Nathan Freitas, director at Guardian Project, a developer of mobile privacy tools. “They see eye-to-eye on what, for a harmonious society, you need. It’s just one is a phone ecosystem, the other is a nation.”Nian Liu contributed reporting from Beijing More

Tens of millions of Americans will flock to the polls on Tuesday to vote in midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and potentially reshape Joe Biden’s presidency after nearly two years in office.According to the final polling averages, Republicans are expected to win enough seats in the House of Representatives to regain control of the lower chamber of Congress — which they will use to stymie Biden’s agenda and launch investigations into his administration.But the balance of power in the Senate will depend on the outcome of a handful of races — particularly in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia — that were neck-and-neck heading into the last stretch of the campaign.As of Monday afternoon, more than 41mn Americans had already cast their ballots by voting early either in person or by mail, pointing to high turnout that could exceed the 122mn people who voted in the 2018 midterm elections.US political strategists say that in a highly polarised environment, the outcome will depend on which side does a better job of getting its traditional base of voters to show up at the polls in pivotal constituencies.However, shifts in sentiment among independent and swing voters could also be crucial in the tightest contests, including whether college-educated women in the suburbs will stick with the Democrats, and to what extent Republicans could make gains among Hispanic and black voters.Four years ago, a backlash against Donald Trump led Democrats to capture a majority in the House, but this year the political winds have been shifting in the opposite direction, amid voter discontent with high inflation, crime and immigration which has favoured Republicans.Democrats recaptured some ground following the Supreme Court’s overturning of the constitutional right to an abortion, and probes of Trump’s connections to the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol and his mishandling of troves of sensitive national security documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.

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Yet that rebound stalled over the past month, as Republicans closed ranks behind their candidates, including many of those who embraced and defended Trump, and Democrats struggled to come up with a strong closing message on the economy in the face of the latest discouraging data on consumer prices.Political spending throughout the 2022 midterms cycle, across both state and federal races, was projected to exceed $16.7bn, according to data released on Thursday by OpenSecrets, as campaigners and their allies scrambled to win over voters.Democrats have raised more than $1.1bn from grassroots donors this year, more than twice that of Republicans’ grassroots fundraising, according to filings for the parties’ fundraising platforms, WinRed and ActBlue.However, Republicans have relied heavily on outside spending and mega-donors to propel their candidates in crucial races.Pro-GOP outside groups, such as super political action committees and hybrid Pacs, have spent nearly $1.1bn on the midterm elections this cycle, about 50 per cent more than pro-Democrat groups have spent.

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About half of this sum came from just 10 Republican donors, including $77mn from Richard Uihlein, $67mn from Ken Griffin, $44mn from Jeff Yass and $40mn from Timothy Mellon. Steve Schwarzman, Peter Thiel and Larry Ellison have each given $31mn-$34mn to these groups.As well as new lawmakers in Congress, Tuesday’s vote will also feature crucial races for state governor, with Democrats Kathy Hochul and Gretchen Whitmer battling to win re-election in New York and Michigan respectively, while Republicans Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott are seeking new terms in Florida and Texas, respectively.The governor’s race in Arizona will also be closely watched, with Kari Lake, a Trump-backed former television news anchor, in a close race with Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake has refused to say whether she would accept the results of her election if she loses, amid concerns that some Republicans could seek to challenge official vote tallies as they did in 2020.

On Monday night, Biden travelled to Maryland for his final rally of the midterm elections to support Wes Moore, the Democrat running for governor, who is widely expected to prevail in his race. Meanwhile, Trump campaigned in Ohio for JD Vance, the former venture capitalist, author and one-time critic of the former president who is running for a Senate seat. Biden and Trump have signalled that they want to run again for president in 2024, setting up a possible rematch of the 2020 vote — but their decisions could be affected by the results of Tuesday’s election.Across both parties, there are voices calling privately and even publicly for alternatives to emerge in the race for the White House. They could be emboldened by weak performances by the preferred candidates of both men. More