Economy

LONDON (Reuters) – Elected for the first time to parliament in 2015, Rishi Sunak became Britain’s youngest prime minister in more than 200 years on Monday, tasked with steering the country through an economic crisis and mounting anger among some voters.It is a remarkable return for Sunak who lost a leadership bid to Liz Truss less than two months ago when he was accused by some in the Conservative Party of bringing down their hero, Boris Johnson.One of the wealthiest politicians in Westminster, he enters Downing Street facing a need to make deep public spending cuts to stem a fiscal crisis, as well as tackling a cost-of-living crunch, a winter of strikes and Russia’s war in Ukraine.His backers say the former finance minister is a safe pair of hands who can restore Britain’s credibility with investors who sold the country’s bonds and sterling after Truss’s mini-budget offered tax cuts with little on how to fund them.But the former Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analyst and hedge fund partner also faces challenges within the governing Conservative Party, where some lawmakers blame him for his role in ousting Johnson and are concerned he has not got what it takes to win elections.The opposition Labour Party is likely to paint him as a member of the uber-rich elite, out of touch with the pressures faced by millions as Britain slides towards a recession, dragged down by the surging cost of food and energy. Some fear he cannot reunite a party that is deeply divided and getting used to quickly dispensing with leaders they do not like.”He couldn’t beat Liz Truss last month; he’s not turned into an election winner less than two months later,” one senior Conservative lawmaker said on condition of anonymity after supporting Johnson in his failed bid to run again.Sunak replaces Truss, who said she would resign four days ago but who defeated him on Sept. 5 with 57% of the vote from Conservative members. Then, the former finance minister repeatedly described his predecessor’s ideas as “fairytale” economics that would spook the markets.He was proved right, but after a fast-track leadership race, some Conservatives say they doubt his commitment to a Margaret Thatcher-style small state vision to spur growth after he put Britain on course for the highest tax burden since the 1950s with emergency pandemic spending on saving jobs and welfare.When declaring his candidacy, Sunak, 42, said he had a track record that showed he could “fix our economy, unite out party and deliver for our country”. “There will be integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government I lead and I will work day in and day out to get the job done,” he said in veiled criticism of Johnson, forced out over a scandal-ridden premiership. FIRST INDIAN-HERITAGE PMBorn in Southampton in 1980 to Hindu parents of Punjabi Indian descent, Sunak repeatedly during the last leadership campaign spoke of helping his mum, who ran a pharmacy, with the books, doing payroll and accounts.He had a privileged education – he went to an elite fee-paying school and is the latest prime minister to have studied politics, philosophy and economics at Oxford University, following David Cameron and his predecessor, Truss.During the last leadership campaign, he supported the creation of more selective grammar schools after new ones were banned by the opposition Labour Party, but repeatedly said “a world class education” should be a birthright.He will also be the first person of colour to become Britain’s prime minister. Ravi Kumar, 38, a Conservative Party member working at a finance company in the central English city of Nottingham, described the appointment as a “watershed moment”.”I grew up in the 80s and 90s, and I could not even imagine a non-white prime minister in my lifetime… So to see a British Indian leader is phenomenal,” he told Reuters.But Sunak’s marriage to the daughter of an Indian billionaire has raised concerns in the party that he is too far removed from the concerns of everyday voters, some of whom are being forced by spiralling inflation to decide whether to spend their money on food or heating.It didn’t help that in April Sunak’s wife was forced to confirm reports that her non-domiciled status meant she did not pay tax on all her international earnings, something she agreed to end.”Rishi never had a overdraft so he is used to having a Treasury (finance ministry) account and a current account,” said one Conservative insider who had backed Johnson.”Rishi has good PR but an inability to be brave and be the Brexit Chancellor the UK needs,” the insider said on condition of anonymity. Sunak’s supporters say he is just the man who is needed to steady the ship financially after Truss’s so-called mini-budget roiled financial markets, raising government borrowing and increasing mortgages and fears pensions funds could go bust.”We need someone who can provide stability and proven economic competence in these challenging times, and Rishi Sunak is that person,” said Grant Shapps, brought in as Britain’s interior minister after Truss sacked his predecessor. Shapps was just one of several ministers to back Sunak after Johnson pulled out late on Sunday, surprising and even angering his own supporters. Johnson has not made public who he backed.COVID CHAMPIONSunak rose swiftly up the ranks of the Conservative Party, becoming, in 2020, one of the youngest finance ministers.When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Britain, Sunak dropped the Conservatives’ small-state instincts to borrow massively and stave off the risk of an economic depression.That made him one of the most popular politicians in the country, as he was praised for helping businesses and workers.In one photograph that captured the sense of unity behind his rescue plans, Sunak posed outside his Downing Street office flanked by the heads of Britain’s biggest trade union group and a leading employers’ group.But that consensus disappeared as Britain emerged from the crisis saddled with an extra 400 billion pounds of debt and then fell into a cost-of-living crisis that led to even more demands on the public purse. Polls earlier this year showed his stock had fallen with the public, who were worried about the cost of living crisis and angered that he had raised payroll taxes while his wife had avoided British levies.Labour leader Keir Starmer is expected to seize on the appointment of a new wealthy prime minister by Conservative lawmakers rather than by the country as a reason why Britain should face a national election before it is due in two years.”My focus is on the millions of people who are struggling to pay their bills, now have additional anxieties about their mortgage. I know what it feels like,” Starmer said on Sunday.”They could have a stable Labour government.” More

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian central bank is expected to hold its key interest rate at 7.5% on Friday, ending a months’-long rate-cutting cycle, as an inflation slowdown becomes less marked and geopolitical uncertainty saps consumer demand, a Reuters poll found on Monday.The bank has gradually reversed an emergency rate hike to 20% in late February that followed Russia’s decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine and the imposition of increasingly wide-ranging Western sanctions in response.Since then, the central bank has cut rates six times, most recently to 7.5% last month. At that meeting, the bank omitted guidance about studying the need for future reductions, fuelling expectations of an end to monetary easing. Twenty-two of 26 analysts and economists polled by Reuters on Monday predicted that Russia would keep its benchmark rate unchanged on Friday. Inflation is far above the central bank’s 4% target, but down from 20-year highs shortly after the conflict in Ukraine began. “Overall, the equilibrium of pro-inflationary and disinflationary risks remains balanced, so the central bank will likely have a pause amid growing uncertainty due to geopolitical escalation,” Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, said. The conflict in Ukraine, entering its ninth month, shows no sign of abating. President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilisation order and subsequent declaration of martial law in four partly-occupied regions of Ukraine that Russia says it owns have exacerbated geopolitical risks.Economic activity slowed significantly at the end of September, the central bank said this month. Tens of thousands of people have joined the army or fled the country since the Sept. 21 mobilisation order.While that may have a disinflationary impact, combined with general uncertainty depressing consumer demand, inflationary expectations among Russian households – an indicator to which the Bank of Russia pays close attention – remain elevated. Annual inflation slowed to 13.68% in September, but the decline was slight, Georgy Vashchenko, deputy director of Freedom Finance Global’s research department, said.”At the same time there is a risk of a strong decrease in consumer activity in the fourth quarter,” Vashchenko said. “Stimulating growth of retailer and corporate lending by lowering the rate is currently pointless, in my view.” The Bank of Russia may change its rhetoric on Friday and give a more hawkish signal to the market, hinting at a possible key rate increase at the following meeting, Andrei Duryagin, investments director at MKB Investments, said. Three analysts forecast a cut to 7.25%, with one predicting a 50-basis-point reduction. More

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s economic revitalisation minister stepped down on Monday after growing criticism of his failure to fully explain his ties to a church group that critics say is akin to a cult, a move that will be a blow to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.Daishiro Yamagiwa, the first person to resign from Kishida’s government since he took power last year, became the highest profile political casualty thus far from a widening scandal sparked by the July killing of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.His quitting is likely to further damage Kishida, whose support has tumbled to record lows amid revelations about connections between nearly half of the lawmakers of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Unification Church.Yamagiwa later told reporters he regretted his actions but stopped short of an apology and said he would remain as lawmaker since he had done nothing illegal.”It was pointed out that my explanation was delayed. As a result, I caused inconvenience to the government,” Yamagiwa said.He added that he regretted attending so many church gatherings and giving the organisation recognition as a result.Kishida later told reporters he would name Yamagiwa’s successor on Tuesday.”I accepted his resignation because, as prime minister, I need to give top priority to issues such as economic measures and supplementary budgets,” he said.Kishida added that an economic stimulus package was in the final stages of compilation and would be announced by the end of the month, as expected.He added he felt responsible for having appointed Yamagiwa but would continue his duties and parliamentary appearances.But the move may not satisfy the opposition.”They even cancelled the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy meeting abruptly – it’s total mayhem,” tweeted Kenta Izumi, who leads the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, referring to a policy meeting whose eleventh-hour cancellation preceded the announcement of Yamagiwa’s impending resignation. INVESTIGATIONUnification Church, founded in South Korea in the 1950s and famous for its mass weddings, has came under the spotlight following Abe’s July 8 assassination.The suspect in Abe’s shooting bore a grudge against the church, alleging it bankrupted his mother, and blamed Abe for promoting it, according to his social media posts and news reports.Since the killing, evidence has come to light of deep and longstanding ties between the church and LDP members.The LDP has acknowledged that many individual lawmakers have ties to the church but have said there was no organisational link to the party.Kishida last week ordered an investigation into the church.This month, a Jiji news agency poll showed that approval for Kishida’s government had fallen below 30% for the first time, a danger level below which his government might find it hard to carry out his political agenda.Critics say the church built ties with politicians in Japan to attract followers and gain legitimacy, while politicians gained access to church members for help with campaigns.The Unification Church was founded in 1954 by Sun Myung Moon, an anti-communist and self-declared messiah.Critics have for years accused his ministry of being a dangerous cult and questioned its finances and how it indoctrinates its followers, often derided as “Moonies”.The church says it no longer accepts donations that cause financial hardship. It says it has been vilified and members have faced death threats since Abe’s murder. More

It is an image that may define a generation. The sight of Hu Jintao, the former president of China, being ushered forcibly from the front row of the Communist party congress in Beijing was a piece of political theatre — sending a message of utter ruthlessness and total control by Xi Jinping. Xi loyalists now dominate all the top positions in the party. Who can doubt that the Chinese leader intends to rule for life and that he will bulldoze whoever stands in his way — whether at home or abroad?Such scenes from Beijing will reinforce the idea stated in the Biden administration’s new National Security Strategy that: “The PRC [People’s Republic of China] presents America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge.”At a time when Russia is waging war in Europe, it is striking that the US nonetheless identifies China as the bigger threat. The Americans view China as a rival superpower with global ambitions — while Russia is seen as a declining, but dangerous, power increasingly dependent on Beijing.In its efforts to win what President Joe Biden calls a “contest for the future of our world” with China, the US is increasingly looking to an international network of allies, which can loosely be called the “global west”.Like the global south, the global west is defined more by ideas than actual geography. The members are rich liberal democracies with strong security ties to the US. Alongside the traditional western allies in Europe and North America sit Indo-Pacific nations such as Japan and Australia. It is the countries of the global west that are participating fully in sanctions on Russia. They are also the nations that Washington hopes will align with the US in an emerging cold war with China.The sharpest edge of the Beijing-Moscow challenge is military and territorial — with Ukraine and Taiwan on the front lines. But the global west is also increasingly alive to the risk of economic coercion — whether it is Russia cutting off energy supplies to Europe; or China’s trade sanctions against countries that anger it, such as South Korea or Lithuania. The global west is also increasingly concerned about the risk that China will control the technologies of the future — building what one senior US official calls “a terrifying surveillance autocracy” with a worldwide reach.Signs that the global west is coming together are proliferating. At the most recent Nato summit, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea were invited to participate for the first time. The statement issued after the June meeting was the first Nato strategic document to cite China as a threat. European navies are increasingly showing up in the Indo-Pacific. The signature of Aukus — a security pact between Australia, the UK and the US — was another signal.When it comes to economic statecraft, the key organising unit is now the G7 group of leading industrial nations. After the global financial crisis, many suggested that the G7 would become defunct — displaced by the G20, which includes China, Russia and several countries from the global south. But now geopolitical rivalries are heightening again, the G7 is back. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, recently referred to the group as “the steering committee of the free world.” The original G7, formed in the 1970s, included just one Asian nation — Japan. Formally or informally, the Indo-Pacific members of the global west will also be key partners in a revamped G7.Within the global west there is increasing talk of the need to reduce vulnerability to economic coercion by China, by building supply chains and trading relationships primarily with friendly, democratic nations. Janet Yellen, the US Treasury secretary, calls this “friendshoring” — a term that was endorsed by Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s deputy prime minister, in a recent speech.There is also an attempt to push back against China’s expanding global presence in the fields of infrastructure and technology. At its summit in June, the G7 launched a $600bn fund to mobilise investment in global infrastructure. But it risks being a decade late and billions of dollars short. China’s Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 and may already have lavished $4tn on global infrastructure projects.There are also presentational problems. The countries of the global west argue that they are banding together to defend universal values, underpinning a liberal world order. But China and Russia instead present the global west as an attempt to rebuild a hierarchy with its roots in imperialism and white supremacy. Opinion polls in the global south suggest that these Russo-Chinese arguments often find a receptive audience.Even within the global west, there is a danger that unilateral American actions are alienating some partners. The recent ferocious US restrictions on technology exports to China will hugely complicate business for some of the biggest tech firms in South Korea, Japan and Europe. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, has just firmly restated his belief in globalisation — in what felt like a rebuke to the US.If it is to keep this new alliance together, the US will have to persuade its partners that the darkest fears about Russia and China are justified. This weekend’s scenes from Beijing certainly help to make that [email protected] More

Hello. Trade Secrets comes to you this week from New Delhi, where I’m based as FT South Asia bureau chief. Indians are closely watching the UK Conservative leadership contest, buoyed by the strong likelihood that Rishi Sunak, the son of Indian immigrants who was beaten by Liz Truss in the last contest, will soon replace her as prime minister. (NDTV, a news channel, recently ran an on-screen fever chart titled “Rishi on a roller-coaster”, purporting to show Sunak’s revived chances of becoming leader.)As Britain muddles through yet another crisis, today’s newsletter examines the fate of its keenly awaited post-Brexit pact with India, which the UK hopes will boost trade between the countries over the next decade. Charted waters will be on air freight and its pandemic-driven rise in significance in the global supply chain. Email me at [email protected]. Alan will be back in your inboxes next week.The long and winding road to a UK-India trade dealIt’s Diwali today, and residents here are splurging on festive clothes, sweets and parties. Notwithstanding a ban on setting off firecrackers in the capital, smoke from festive celebrations here and across northern India are expected to envelop New Delhi in smog on October 25, in what is typically one of the year’s worst days for air quality. For trade boffins, Diwali was also meant to be the deadline by which India’s prime minister Narendra Modi and his then-counterpart Boris Johnson promised they would have concluded most of the talks on a “comprehensive and balanced” free trade agreement. The FTA, if agreed, would be a big one for India, which recently overtook the UK as the world’s fifth-largest economy. Modi’s government is on an FTA spree, having signed trade pacts since last year with Mauritius, the United Arab Emirates, and recently reopened negotiations with the EU. For both India and Britain, the trade deal will have a strong geopolitical element — part of the two governments’ push for more geographically diverse economic ties is that it will allow them to reduce their reliance on China. India opted out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), exiting negotiations in 2019 because of its suspicion of Beijing and the country’s growing dominance in high tech. For the struggling Tories, the proposed FTA would be the biggest of its kind since Britain left the EU and a rare “Brexit opportunity” in a year marked by supply and transport crises and broader economic turmoil, largely of the government’s own making. India is one of the world’s largest markets for Scotch whisky, and recently surpassed China as the largest country of origin of foreign students in the UK. A UK Department of Industry and Trade study published in January estimated that a trade deal could enhance the two countries’ trade turnover, worth £23.3bn in 2019, by up to £16.7bn by 2035.“There is a strong interest from both countries to do it for geostrategic reasons, and a strong interest from business,” said Arpita Mukherjee, a professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic relations. “But there are also sensitivities, and some sectors where the respective sides are sensitive to opening up to competition.”The FTA talks were recently dealt a setback (if not a death blow) when another former UK cabinet minister of Indian origin, Suella Braverman, made remarks on Indian migrants who overstay their visas which offended Modi government officials. “The talks have continued, but the climate got poisoned because of that,” one Indian official told Trade Secrets. Britain’s political turmoil is also probably playing a role in the timetable for the talks. While the FTA’s particulars are in the hands of bureaucratic technocrats, buy-in at the top in the form of a stable UK government will be essential to seal the deal.Kemi Badenoch, the UK secretary of state for international trade, said on a recent visit to a Scottish distillery (part of an industry poised to profit handsomely if India lowers alcohol tariffs bilaterally) that “we’re no longer working to the Diwali deadline”.However, she added Britain’s focus was on “the deal itself rather than the date”. Sunil Barthwal, India’s commerce secretary, said last week that talks were headed in the “right direction” even if they would not be concluded right away. Business lobbies who want the FTA are playing down the delay. “As the trade secretary Kemi Badenoch said, ‘the deal is more important than the date’, so we think it is right that the negotiators keep working beyond Diwali to secure a comprehensive deal covering both goods and services,” said Richard McCallum, chief executive of the UK India Business Council. “Negotiators have made impressive progress in the last 10 months, with the majority of the chapters being closed, at least on a provisional basis.” The UK side has taken comfort from the fact that Piyush Goyal, India’s commerce secretary, chose not to speak out publicly against Braverman’s remarks, suggesting New Delhi still wants the FTA as much as London does. However, no trade deal is ever done until every detail is agreed. The proposed pact poses negotiators on both sides an unusually complex challenge, as the two economies differ widely in their respective structures. India’s is transforming rapidly, raising questions there about the costs and benefits of opening wider to the UK now. “We have so many foreign direct investment restrictions on specific sectors — retail for example — how far can we give a forward looking agreement?” said Mukherjee. “And in return, what can we ask?” Apart from lower tariffs, both sides will need to agree on details of reducing non-tariff barriers in areas such as phytosanitary requirements. Indian dairy products are banned in the UK, for example. British businesses have complained about customs and logistics in India as one of a long list of factors hampering their operations.The UK wants India to lift some of its barriers to international players in service industries where its professional firms compete globally, notably corporate law and financial services. It also wants any agreement to extend to investment protection — particularly sensitive terrain in India after it lost a tax battle with Vodafone in a $2bn international arbitration case. Meanwhile, India wants as part of the FTA enhanced visa access in the UK for short-term stays by its professionals — one reason why Braverman’s remarks rankled New Delhi so much. Taking both sides at their word that they want a deal, the more relevant issue is not whether it will happen but how deep a potential FTA will go. People close to the talks on both sides say that what is currently being discussed goes deeper than the ones India signed with the UAE and Australia’s smaller economies, which covered a more limited range of goods and services than what is now on the table. People on both sides say the direction of travel is firmly toward a deal. Multiple drivers are keeping the talks on track: a convergence of views on the need for partnerships in a changing world, Britain’s need for Brexit successes, and India’s voracious need for capital from partners other than Beijing. “The real reason we are both doing this is because of China,” one official said. Alan Beattie writes a Trade Secrets column for FT.com every Wednesday. Click here to read the latest, and visit ft.com/trade-secrets to see all Alan’s columns and previous newsletters too.Charted watersDuring the Covid-19 pandemic there was a surge in demand for deliveries by air, a faster but more costly option than sea transport that in the past was reserved for high-value goods.Craig Smyth, chief of one of the world’s largest air cargo handlers, Worldwide Flight Services, is confident that this shift will continue for the long haul. Speaking with FT industry correspondent Oliver Telling, he brushed off the plunge in cargo volumes this year. The growth of online shopping, which now accounts for a fifth of the cargo deliveries that WFS runs in some parts of the world, is what makes Smyth both “excited” and optimistic about long-term demand in his sector. “Because of ecommerce . . . there’s definitely a shift that is structural, that is permanent,” he said. (Georgina Quach).Trade linksEnergy UK, a trade body that represents companies including Centrica, EDF Energy, ScottishPower and SSE, has said the government’s revenue cap on low carbon electricity companies will have “catastrophic” effects on green investment, Natalie Thomas reportsThe latest FT film looks closely at how Brexit hit the UK economy, the “conspiracy of silence” across the political spectrum, and why there has not yet been a convincing case for a Brexit dividendThe Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is at the centre of both a tug of war between Washington and Taipei and the fiercest front in the new cold war between China and the US. Kathrin Hille in Taipei and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington analyse what is at stake in the chips market. (Last month I wrote a Big Read exploring India’s ambition to manufacture semiconductors — which could prove extremely lucrative for the country)Trade Secrets is edited by Georgina Quach today. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Jury selection is due to start on Monday in the tax fraud trial of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s real estate company, with prosecutors in Manhattan accusing the business of defrauding tax authorities by awarding “off the books” benefits to company executives.The criminal trial in a New York state court is one of a mounting number of legal woes for Trump as he considers another run for the presidency in 2024. The Manhattan district attorney’s office charged the Trump Organization and Allen Weisselberg, its then-chief financial officer, in July 2021.Weisselberg pleaded guilty in August to 15 charges, which included grand larceny and tax fraud, and admitted concealing $1.76 million in income in an agreement with prosecutors that requires him to testify at this trial. The Trump Organization, which operates hotels, golf courses and other real estate around the world, could face up to $1.6 million in fines for the three tax fraud counts and six other counts it faces. Trump, who was not charged in the case, faces other legal troubles including a federal criminal investigation into the removal of government documents from the White House when he left office last year.The jury selection process is due to kick off on Monday, with Justice Juan Merchan presiding. Lawyers from both sides will have the opportunity to question prospective jurors, who may be asked about their personal views on Trump, a Republican businessman-turned-politician who first achieved fame decades ago in the most-populous U.S. city, and whether they can decide the case impartially. The city is heavily Democratic.Prosecutors accused the company of engaging in a sweeping tax fraud over a period of 15 years starting in 2005. They have accused the company of allowing certain employees to understate their taxable compensation, enabling it to evade payroll taxes. Lawyers for the Trump Organization have called the case a “selective prosecution” based on animosity by the prosecution toward Trump for his political views, though the judge overseeing it has rejected that argument. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his predecessor who began the investigation, Cyrus Vance, are Democrats.Two prosecutors who had been leading the investigation resigned in February, with one saying that felony charges should be brought against Trump but that Bragg indicated he had doubts. Weisselberg, who worked at the company for five decades, has said he was charged because he would not turn on his longtime boss. Merchan rejected that argument in an August decision to let the case proceed.The criminal case is separate from the civil fraud lawsuit filed in September by New York state Attorney General Letitia James against the Trump Organization, Trump and three of his adult children, accusing them of overstating asset values and his net worth to get favorable bank loans and insurance coverage. Trump has called the suit by James, a Democrat, as well as the charges pursued by Bragg politically motivated.Weisselberg’s plea agreement stated that he evaded paying taxes on unreported income from the Trump Organization in the form of benefits including rent payments for a Manhattan apartment, multiple Mercedes Benz automobiles, private school tuition for his grandchildren and cash and furnishings for his apartment and home in Florida. The plea agreement calls for Weisselberg to serve five months in jail.Weisselberg avoided $900,000 in taxes by failing to declare the perks as income and collected $133,000 in refunds he did not deserve, prosecutors said. Two other Trump Organization employees received compensation in the form of lodging and car leases, prosecutors added. More

The writer is a political journalist and disability advocateLast month, £150 cost of living payments began trickling into the bank accounts of people who receive disability benefits. These subsidies are conspicuously lower than those made to pensioners or people on the lowest incomes. It is not clear why disabled people like me deserve less help than other disadvantaged groups, especially as we will feel the effects of this crisis particularly acutely. The squeeze on incomes is being fuelled by soaring energy prices, and disabled people incur much higher costs than most. Those with the most complex conditions have to keep life-sustaining equipment (such as ventilators and hoists) permanently on; switching them off to save money is not an option. In the event of a power cut, disabled people can register for prioritisation when supplies are reconnected — and in some cases for emergency generators — but this service is not well publicised. Still more disabled people face a double-whammy of susceptibility to the cold: we are often unable to keep ourselves warm by moving around and are more likely to get sick as temperatures fall. But since disabled people tend to spend much more time at home than our non-disabled counterparts, we do not have the option of saving money by working from offices and cafés. All of which means we have the heating on for longer and turned up higher than the average person. Even before the price rise at the beginning of the month, bills could be astronomical. The lower payments represent inequality piled upon inequality. Disabled people are already much more likely to live in poverty, whether because we are less likely to be in work, or because of the extra costs we bear in daily life. In 2019, before the inflation crisis, the charity Scope found these extra costs amounted to £583 a month on average, rising to more than £1,000 a month for one in five disabled people. Things have only got worse as costs increased at the same time that a deadly pandemic forced many of the clinically vulnerable people to give up their jobs to stay safe. Imagine the terror felt by many disabled people amid the continuing uncertainty about whether the benefits we rely on will be uprated in line with inflation. We do not know whether the next prime minister will go as far as imposing a real-terms cut. This would be — or rather, ought to be — unconscionable; it would push those already struggling the most further into a financial black hole. People with no options left would turn off their heating. They would get sick. And some would die. So how has this become a decision the government is willing to contemplate (even though a new regime in Downing Street could force a rethink)? And how is it that those most in need of help have received the lowest cost of living payments, with little pushback from Labour? These decisions barely register because they have become a commonplace cruelty. A decade of austerity hit disabled people the hardest (look at the case of Errol Graham, who had mental health issues and starved to death in 2018 after his disability benefits were cut). During the pandemic, reckless or flawed decisions on lockdown, shielding and vaccine priority meant disabled people died in much higher numbers than others. We make up 20 per cent of the UK population but represented 60 per cent of Covid-19 deaths. These are horrifying figures, and yet no one has been held to account. Why would a few (or even many) more deaths of disabled people from poverty and the cold be any different to the tens of thousands who died during the pandemic?There are easy ways to keep disabled people safe this winter. Increase the cost of living payments to reflect the higher energy costs disabled people face. Better still, lower our energy bills. And, crucially, increase benefits at least in line with inflation. Because if nothing is done, Truss’s legacy will be just the same as her predecessor’s: disabled people being sacrificed to poor decision-making. More