Economy

At least 125 people have been killed after a riot and stampede at a football match in Indonesia, government officials said, one of the deadliest disasters in the history of the sport.The game in Surabaya in East Java province between rivals Arema and Persebaya descended into violence when thousands of fans stormed the pitch, police said on Sunday. The chaos occurred when police fired tear gas at “anarchic” fans on the pitch, which triggered a stampede in which people were trampled and suffocated, East Java police chief Nico Afinta said. Two police officers were among those killed. The crowd was made up entirely of fans of the home team Arema, who lost the match 3-2. Earlier reports that as many as 174 people had died were revised down to 125, officials said later on Sunday.At least 180 people were also injured. The disaster prompted President Joko Widodo to halt top-tier matches in the country until a probe into the sport was completed. Gianni Infantino, president of Fifa, world football’s governing body, called it a “dark day for all involved in football and a tragedy beyond comprehension. I extend my deepest condolences to the families and friends of the victims who lost their lives following this tragic incident”.Thanks for reading FirstFT Asia. Share feedback on today’s newsletter at [email protected] or reply to this email. — EmilyFive more stories in the news1. Opec+ plans oil production cut to prop up prices The oil group is expected to discuss a production cut that could total more than 1mn barrels a day at the meeting this week, at a time much of the world is fighting to bring energy costs down. This is by far the largest since early in the pandemic and equivalent to more than 1 per cent of global supplies. 2. Moderna refused China request to reveal vaccine technology The Massachusetts-based pharmaceutical company turned down Beijing’s request to hand over the recipe for its messenger RNA vaccine because of commercial and safety concerns, said two people involved in negotiations that took place between 2020 and 2021. The vaccine maker says it is still “eager” to sell the product to China.3. Nato chief warns Russia against using nuclear weapons Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has warned of “severe consequences for Russia” if Vladimir Putin were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, amid escalating rhetoric from Moscow and its allies. Any use of nuclear weapons would “change the nature” of the Ukraine conflict”, he added. “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” The latest from Ukraine: Ukraine’s army is pushing further on from the strategically important town of Lyman that it retook from Russia over the weekend. The hard-fought victory came after nearly three weeks of battle.4. Brazil votes in presidential election Brazilians have begun voting for a new president after a long and bitter campaign. Polls showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with a more than 10 percentage point advantage over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro reportedly took the lead by Sunday evening in an initially tally of votes. If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of valid votes, the race will go to a runoff at the end of October. (FT, Reuters) 5. Sultan’s heirs expand efforts to seize Petronas assets The heirs of a late sultan have launched legal proceedings to seize as many as a dozen Netherlands businesses of Malaysian state oil company Petronas in a move set to further infuriate Kuala Lumpur after similar actions in Luxembourg in July.The day aheadNational Day Golden Week continues Markets in China will be closed for this week for the Golden Week holiday. UK Conservative party conference Although there have been reports of Tory MP no-shows, prime minister Liz Truss will definitely be joined by her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng in Birmingham today, when he is expected to address the conference. (Telegraph, FT) International Atomic Energy Agency meeting The board meets in Vienna today following last week’s general conference.What else we’re readingHong Kong’s expat party continues — but for how long? As she prepares to leave Hong Kong for a move to San Francisco, FT’s Tabby Kinder reflects on the “dizzying contradictions” of her time in the city amid political upheaval and Covid. “I have, with deep conviction, recommended living here to friends,” she writes. Indonesia on the hunt for investors to back its new capital As Jakarta sinks rapidly into swampland, moving the capital to Nusantara is the signature project of President Joko Widodo, who views the $32bn project as fundamental to his legacy. But Indonesia is struggling to attract foreign investors to fund the new capital city. Japan’s ‘nuclear lost decade’ to add chill to European winter The shutdown of Japan’s entire reactor fleet after the Fukushima nuclear diaster in 2011 was matched by a near complete shutdown of serious public debate on restarting them. And now, a decade later, Japan faces what should have been an avertable crisis, writes Leo Lewis. Prestigious Hong Kong flats stand empty Not one single new apartment was sold last week at a marquee 800-flat project in Hong Kong in a sign of the sagging real estate market that is forcing some of the city’s tycoons to do property fire sales. Analysts and insiders are expecting home prices to drop 10 per cent or more this year.The business card is back, sort of Just because physical mingling has returned, do people really want to go back to swapping germ-laden bits of cardboard bearing data that took hours of tedious labour to type into a phone back home? As it turns out, at this conference they very much did, writes Pilita Clark. ChessUS teenager Hans Niemann’s shock victory over world chess champion Magnus Carlsen might have been celebrated as the arrival of a new force in the ancient game of strategy. But wild rumours of dirty tricks have swirled. More

BIRMINGHAM (Reuters) – British finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng will vow on Monday to stay the course with his planned tax cuts but promised an “iron-clad” commitment to fiscal discipline after a week of market turmoil in response to his growth package.At the start of the governing Conservative Party’s annual conference, Kwarteng and Prime Minister Liz Truss have been forced to defend a plan that failed to spell out the financing for deep tax cuts combined with an expensive package of energy subsidies.That lack of detail roiled the markets, with the pound falling to record lows against the dollar and government borrowing costs soaring. On Friday ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on Britain’s sovereign credit rating to negative, meaning a downgrade could be on the way.But Truss and Kwarteng have resisted calls to reverse their planned abolition of a top rate of income tax and a cut in the basic rate.Kwarteng has said he will set out his funding plans on Nov. 23 in a full fiscal statement, and on Monday he will reiterate that his policies aim to spur growth and will work out to be fiscally responsible.”We must face up to the facts that for too long our economy has not grown enough. The path ahead of us was one of slow, managed decline,” Kwarteng will tell the party in the central English city of Birmingham, according to advance extracts.”We needed a new approach, focused on raising economic growth … We must stay the course. I am confident our plan is the right one.”Expectations are growing that spending cuts are coming, after Truss on Sunday did not deny the plan would require a reduction in public service funding. She also refused to commit to increasing welfare benefits in line with inflation, a Conservative party campaign promise.Kwarteng reiterated his full fiscal statement would be accompanied with a forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), an independent body which vets government fiscal statements but was cut out of checking the growth plan.The finance minister will have to work hard to restore confidence, including from lawmakers in his own party. On Sunday, former minister, Michael Gove, long at the heart of government, hinted he might vote against cutting taxes for the wealthy.Sterling has recovered from its initial slump and government bond yields have stabilised – albeit at a high level – after the Bank of England announced a plan to buy up to 65 billion pounds ($72.54 billion) of long-dated debt.Truss has taken some of the blame for the market meltdown, saying the government should have laid the ground better for the package.The International Monetary Fund last week said the tax cuts would probably worsen inequality and undermine the BoE’s fight against inflation. Regardless, Kwarteng looks set to double down, promising what he called a new economic deal for the country. “What Britain needs is economic growth. And a government wholly committed to economic growth,” he will say.”That is why we will forge a new economic deal for Britain backed by an iron-clad commitment to fiscal discipline.”($1 = 0.8961 pounds) More

The final quarter of the year kicks off on Monday and the market mood could not be darker. This may in fact be one of the few sources of optimism that the bottom is in, at least for now.Investors are betting that soaring U.S. interest rates, bond yields and the dollar will tighten financial conditions enough to tip the U.S. and global economies into recession. A few domestic crises and central bank interventions – think Britain and Japan – have only darkened the global gloom.By some measures – the S&P 500 and the ICE (NYSE:ICE) BofA Treasury Index’s respective year-to-date falls of 25% and 13% – this is shaping up to be the worst year since the 1930s. A typical 60-40 portfolio is down around 20% so far this year.Ryan Detrick at Carson Group notes that since the World War Two, the S&P 500 twice posted a bigger Jan-Sept fall, in 1974 and 2002. But in both years, it rose 7.9% in the fourth quarter.On Friday, JP Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic – one of the most vocal equity bulls – appeared to throw in the towel, saying he now fears a central bank policy error. Peak bearishness?Another glimmer of temporary hope is on the economic front. While everyone is slashing their 2023 outlooks, the current data flow is actually not as bad as feared – Citi’s G10 economic surprises index is positive and its highest since May.But the bigger picture is challenging, and there is no shortage of tests for investors this week, including: U.S. earnings season gets underway, global PMIs, U.S. non-farm payrolls, a raft of policymaker speeches ahead of the IMF/World Bank meetings, a rate decision in Australia, and Brazil’s presidential election. Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:Brazil election aftermathU.S., euro zone, UK, Canada and other PMIs (September)Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, George speak More

Hello and welcome to the working week,It was allegedly said by former British prime minister Harold Wilson that a week is a long time in politics. So how long does a month feel? A very very long time, it turns out, given the political and economic maelstrom since Liz Truss became party leader at the start of September. Perhaps she should have paid more attention to the FT editorial board’s advice. This week Truss will explain herself to her party, gathered for its annual conference in Birmingham. Although there have been reports of Tory MP no-shows, Truss will definitely be joined by her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. He will address the conference on Monday. Truss delivers the closing speech on Wednesday. On the other side of the world, China’s leadership is also involved in some party management. The country is beginning its annual Golden Week holiday, kick-starting what is expected to be a month of patriotic pageantry during which president Xi Jinping is set to be handed an unprecedented third term as Communist party general secretary and head of the Chinese military.Then there are the more conventional elections. You will be able to read analysis by FT reporters of Brazil’s “imperfect” presidential election vote. And this Sunday, Austria will go to the polls to elect its new president.Finally, it will be another big week for rocket enthusiasts as the SpaceX Crew-5 astronaut mission for Nasa is scheduled to take off for the International Space Station from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center — so long as Hurricane Ian does not disrupt proceedings.Thank you to everyone who gets in touch about this newsletter. Please keep sending your tips and opinions to [email protected] or hit reply to the email.Economic dataJobs will be a focus in a fairly thin week for economic data. The US and Canada publish numbers on Friday.There will also be an opportunity for international comparisons with the purchasing managers’ index reports for manufacturing and services.CompaniesIt is another busy week for news from the high street. Inflation will dominate UK retailer Tesco’s half-year results: how much of it to absorb, how much to force suppliers to absorb and how much to pass on to consumers. Investors were somewhat taken aback in April when the supermarket chain said it would forgo some profit this year in order to keep pricing keen, but the decision looks prescient now. Other retailers are using funds to help their staff deal with the cost of living crisis. The John Lewis Partnership will this week start offering free food to its department store and Waitrose supermarket staff. This is not entirely an altruistic measure given the growing “war for talent” ahead of the busy Christmas trading period and the warning this month by the employee-owned company that it might not be able to pay its annual staff bonus. Wages are rising in the sector. At least three retailers have pushed through in-year pay increases and now they are scrapping it out over benefits too — free meals, staff discounts and paid breaks among them.Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayEU, European Central Bank Q3 euro area bank lending surveyEurozone, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Cips manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data.UK, the John Lewis Partnership begins offering free food to staff across its department stores and Waitrose supermarkets to help with the cost of living.US, construction spending figuresResults: Renewi Q2, Renew Holdings FYTuesdayAustralia, Reserve Bank of Australia holds its monthly rate-setting meetingUS, factory orders dataResults: Greggs Q3 trading updateWednesdayFrance, August industrial production figuresFrance, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/IHS Markit services PMI dataGermany, trade balance figuresNew Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand publishes rate-setting decisionPoland, the National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council holds its rate-setting meeting.Results: Tesco H1, Topps Tiles FYThursdayEU, August retail sales figuresGermany, UK: S&P Global construction PMI dataIndia, S&P Global services PMI dataElon Musk due to be questioned under oath by Twitter’s lawyers as part of litigation over the multibillionaire’s bid to walk away from a $44bn takeover. The five-day trial is set to begin on October 17.Results: Conagra Brands Q1, Constellation Brands Q2, CMC Markets H1 trading update, Levi Strauss & Co Q3, McCormick & Company Q3FridayCanada, September unemployment figuresItaly, August retail sales figuresUK, quarterly productivity overview figuresUK, Halifax monthly house price indexUK, Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG monthly employment reportUS, September unemployment figuresResults: JD Wetherspoon FYWorld eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. MondayAustria, board of the International Atomic Energy Agency meets in ViennaCanada, general election in QuébecGermany, Unification Day public holiday to celebrate 32 years of reunification. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French president Emmanuel Macron are reported to be planning a working dinner meeting in Berlin if the former recovers from Covid-19 in time.Iraq, National Day public holidaySweden, the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine to be announced in Stockholm. The prizes for physics, chemistry, literature and peace will be announced over the subsequent four days, the last being announced in Oslo, Norway.TuesdayAustralia, Wimbledon 2022 finalist Nick Kyrgios due to appear in court in Canberra charged with assault over an incident last year.EU, Ecofin council meeting discusses rising energy prices, the war in Ukraine and the economic outlook, among other subjects.US, Nasa and SpaceX plan to launch the fifth crewed mission to the International Space Station from Kennedy Space Center in Florida either today or Friday. Jewish holiday Yom Kippur, or Day of Atonement, startsWednesdaySpain, a German-Spanish summit involving chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez is due to take place in the Galician harbour city of A Coruña.UK, Aslef union drivers at 12 train operating companies are to stage a further co-ordinated 24-hour walkout, bringing disruption across the UK rail network.UK, prime minister and Conservative party leader Liz Truss speaks on the closing day of her party’s annual conference in Birmingham. ThursdayNorway, Norwegian government will present its budget for 2023 to the StortingCzech Republic, the meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) is to take place in Prague, bringing together the leaders of the EU, Ukraine, the UK, Norway, Switzerland and Western Balkan countries.US, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a curtainraiser speech at Georgetown University in Washington for next week’s IMF annual meetings event.FridayCzech Republic, informal meeting of EU heads of state or government in PragueLesotho, general electionRussia, President Vladimir Putin turns 70SaturdayUK, Scottish National party annual conference begins in AberdeenUK, another 24-hour national train strike, this time by RMT union railway workers in a dispute over jobs, pay and working conditionsSundayAustria, presidential electionsGermany, state election in Lower SaxonyUganda, National Day More

DUBAI (Reuters) -OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) next week, OPEC sources said on Sunday, in what would be the biggest move yet since the COVID-19 pandemic to address oil market weakness.The meeting will take place on Oct. 5 against the backdrop of falling oil prices and months of severe market volatility which prompted top OPEC+ producer, Saudi Arabia, to say the group could cut production.OPEC+, which combines OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, has refused to raise output to lower oil prices despite pressure from major consumers, including the United States, to help the global economy.Prices have nevertheless fallen sharply in the last month due to fears about the global economy and a rally in the U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserves raised rates.A significant production cut is poised to anger the United States, which has been putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to continue pumping more to help oil prices soften further and reduce revenues for Russia as the West seeks to punish Moscow for sending troops to Ukraine.The West accuses Russia of invading Ukraine, but the Kremlin calls it a special military operation. Saudi Arabia has not condemned Moscow’s actions amid difficult relations with the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.Last week, a source familiar with the Russian thinking said Moscow would like to see OPEC+ cutting 1 million bpd or one percent of global supply.That would be the biggest cut since 2020 when OPEC+ reduced output by a record 10 million bpd as demand crashed due to the COVID pandemic. The group spent the next two years unwinding those record cuts.On Sunday, the sources said the cut could exceed 1 million bpd. One of the sources suggested cuts could also include a voluntary additional reduction of production by Saudi Arabia.OPEC+ will meet in person in Vienna for the first time since March 2020.Analysts and OPEC watchers such as UBS and JP Morgan have suggested in recent days a cut of around 1 million bpd was on the cards and could help arrest the price decline.”$90 oil is non-negotiable for the OPEC+ leadership, hence they will act to safeguard this price floor,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. More

The two countries – North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies but historic foes – have been at odds for decades over a range of issues, including where their continental shelves start and end, overflights in the Aegean Sea and divided Cyprus.”It is up to Turkey to choose if it will come to such a dialogue or not, but the basic ingredient must be a de-escalation,” Nikos Dendias told Proto Thema newspaper in an interview.Last month, the European Union voiced concern over statements by Turkish President Tayip Erdogan accusing Greece, an EU member, of occupying demilitarised islands in the Aegean and saying Turkey was ready to “do what is necessary” when the time came.”The one responsible for a de-escalation is the one causing the escalation, which is Turkey,” Dendias said.He blamed Ankara for increased provocations with a rhetoric of false and legally baseless claims, “even personal insults”.Turkey has sharply increased its overflights and violations of Greek airspace, Dendias told the paper, adding that its behaviour seems to be serving a “revisionist narrative” that it promotes consistently.He said Turkish claims that Greece cannot be an equal interlocutor diplomatically, politically and militarily violates the basic rule of foreign relations – the principle of euality among nations.”It is an insulting approach that ranks various countries as more or less equal,” Dendias said. More

MIAMI (Reuters) -The remnants of Hurricane Ian drifted through Virginia early on Sunday, while storm-ravaged residents in Florida and the Carolinas faced a disaster recovery expected to cost tens of billions of dollars.The storm’s toll on human life also was expected to rise as floodwaters receded and search teams pushed farther into areas initially cut off from the outside world, seeking stranded survivors and the remains of anyone who may have perished. At least 50 storm-related deaths have been confirmed since Ian crashed ashore Florida’s Gulf Coast with catastrophic force on Wednesday as a Category 4 hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour (240 km per hour).Florida accounted for the bulk of fatalities, with 35 tallied by the sheriff’s office in coastal Lee County, which bore the brunt of the storm when it made landfall, and 11 other deaths reported by state officials in four neighboring counties. President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden will see the devastation in Florida firsthand on Wednesday, the White House said in a statement late Saturday. The Bidens will visit Puerto Rico on Monday, where hundreds of thousands of people were still without power two weeks after Hurricane Fiona hit the island.Cuba is restoring power after Ian knocked out electricity to the whole country of 11 million people, flattened homes and obliterated agricultural fields. North Carolina authorities said at least four people had been killed there. No deaths were immediately reported in South Carolina, where Ian made another U.S. landfall on Friday.Chugging over land since then, Ian has diminished into an ever-weakening post-tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center said heavy additional rainfall was possible across portions of West Virginia and western Maryland into Sunday morning, even as “major to record flooding” was forecast to continue in central Florida. WASHED AWAYAs the full scope of devastation came into clearer focus days after Ian struck, officials said some of the heaviest damage was inflicted by raging wind-driven ocean surf that rushed into seaside communities and washed buildings away.Satellite images from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed beach cottages and a motel that lined the shores of Florida’s Sanibel Island had been demolished by storm surges. Although most homes appeared to still be standing, roof damage to all was evident.Surveys from the ground showed that the barrier island, a popular tourist getaway that was home to some 6,000 residents, was left utterly devastated, from its infrastructure to its famously idyllic aesthetic character.”It’s all just completely gone,” Sanibel’s city manager, Dana Souza, said. “Our electric system is pretty much destroyed, our sewer system has been damaged badly and our public water supply is under assessment.”The island’s link to the mainland was severed by breaches to Sanibel’s causeway bridge, further complicating recovery efforts, Souza said.After waning to a tropical storm by the end of its march across Florida to the Atlantic, Ian regained hurricane strength and pummeled coastal South Carolina on Friday, sweeping ashore near Georgetown, north of the historic port city of Charleston, with sustained winds reaching 85 mph (140 kph).Numerous roads were flooded and blocked by fallen trees while a number of piers were damaged in that area. Even as they confronted a staggering amount of utility repairs and debris removal, authorities were busy searching for the missing. As of Friday, some 10,000 people were reported unaccounted for in Florida, according to the state’s emergency management director. He said many of those would likely turn out have merely been displaced and unreachable due to power and phone outages.On Sanibel, crews were just making their way to the hard-hit east end of that island on Saturday, “so our situation is that we’re still in the search-and-rescue mode,” the city manager, Souza, said.City officials were aware of nearly 300 households who failed to leave the island as the storm approached and whose whereabouts and well-being were now being checked, he said.About 837,000 businesses and homes remained without power as Sunday morning in Florida alone, where more than 2 million customers lost electricity the first night of the storm.In central Florida, heavy flooding from rain-swollen rivers and runoff appeared far more extensive than wind damage.Insurers braced for between $28 billion and $47 billion in claims from what could amount to the costliest Florida storm since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, according to U.S. property data and analytics company CoreLogic. Read more:Maps-Hurricane Ian batters the Gulf CoastDrone video shows boats washed ashore in Hurricane Ian’s wakeA Florida town rebuilt after one hurricane endures anotherHurricane hunter says Ian’s eyewall flight was ‘worst I’ve ever been on’How hurricanes cause dangerous, destructive storm surges More

Buckingham Palace sought government advice about the United Nations COP27 summit and it was unanimously agreed that it would not be right for Charles to visit in person for what would be his first overseas trip as sovereign, the source said.There had been no confirmation that Charles would attend the meeting before he became king last month following the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth, the source said.Charles spoke at the opening ceremony of the COP26 summit in Glasgow in 2021, which he described as a “last chance saloon” to save the world from climate change, after the queen pulled out on doctors’ advice.The Sunday Times newspaper reported that Charles had been told not to go to Egypt by new Prime Minister Liz Truss, dashing his plans to deliver a speech at the conference.The newspaper quoted a Downing Street source as saying a recent meeting between Charles and Truss had been cordial and there had not been a row. The new king campaigned for the environment and other issues while heir but he said last month that it would no longer be possible “to give so much of my time and energies to the charities and issues for which I care so deeply”. More