Economy

U.S. manufacturing is experiencing a rebound, with companies adding workers amid high consumer demand for products.WASHINGTON — Ever since American manufacturing entered a long stretch of automation and outsourcing in the late 1970s, every recession has led to the loss of factory jobs that never returned. But the recovery from the pandemic recession has been different: American manufacturers have now added enough jobs to regain all that they shed — and then some.The resurgence has not been driven by companies bringing back factory jobs that had moved overseas, nor by the brawny industrial sectors and regions often evoked by President Biden, former President Donald J. Trump and other champions of manufacturing.Instead, the engines in this recovery include pharmaceutical plants, craft breweries and ice-cream makers. The newly created jobs are more likely to be located in the Mountain West and the Southeast than in the classic industrial strongholds of the Great Lakes.American manufacturers cut roughly 1.36 million jobs from February to April of 2020, as Covid-19 shut down much of the economy. As of August this year, manufacturers had added back about 1.43 million jobs, a net gain of 67,000 workers above prepandemic levels.Data suggest that the rebound is largely a product of the unique circumstances of the pandemic recession and recovery. Covid-19 crimped global supply chains, making domestic manufacturing more attractive to some companies. Federal stimulus spending helped to power a shift in Americans’ buying habits away from services like travel and restaurants and toward goods like cars and sofas, helping domestic factory production — and with it, job growth — to bounce back much faster than it did in the previous two recessions.Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said that the recovery of manufacturing jobs was a result of the unique nature of the recession, which was induced by the pandemic, and the robust federal response, including legislation like the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan of 2021.“We had a huge shift away from services and into goods that spurred production and manufacturing and very rapid recovery in the U.S. economy,” Ms. Yellen told reporters during a trip to Detroit this month. The support for local economies and small businesses included in Mr. Biden’s rescue plan, she said, “has been tremendously helpful in restoring the health of the job market and given the shifting in spending patterns, I think that’s been to the benefit of manufacturing.”American manufacturers, like many industries, have struggled to find raw materials, component parts and skilled workers. And yet, they have continued to create jobs at a rate that has surprised even some longtime promoters of American factory employment.“We have 67,000 more workers today than we had in February 2020,” said Chad Moutray, the chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. “I didn’t think we would get there, to be honest with you.”In recessions over the last half century, factories have typically laid off a greater share of workers than other employers in the economy, and they have been slower to add jobs back in recoveries. Often, companies have used those economic inflection points to accelerate their pace of outsourcing jobs to foreign countries, where wages are significantly lower, and to invest in technology that replaces human workers.The State of Jobs in the United StatesEconomists have been surprised by recent strength in the labor market, as the Federal Reserve tries to engineer a slowdown and tame inflation.August Jobs Report: Job growth slowed in August but stayed solid, suggesting that the labor market recovery remains resilient, even as companies pull back on hiring.Job Market Trends: The labor market appears hot, but the supply of labor has fallen short, holding back the economy. Here is why.Gig Workers: Labor activists hoped President Biden would tackle gig worker issues aggressively. But a year and a half into his presidency, little has been done at the federal level.Black Employment: Black workers saw wages and employment rates go up in the wake of the pandemic. But as the Federal Reserve tries to tame inflation, those gains could be eroded.This time was different. Factory layoffs roughly matched those in the services sector in the depth of the pandemic recession. Economists attribute that break in the trend to many U.S. manufacturers being deemed “essential” during pandemic lockdowns, and the ensuing surge in demand for their products by Americans.Manufacturing jobs quickly rebounded in the spring of 2020, then began to climb at a much faster pace than has been typical for factory job creation in recent decades. Since June 2020, under both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, factories have added more than 30,000 jobs a month.Sectors that hemorrhaged employment in recent recessions have fared much better in this recovery. Furniture makers, who eliminated a third of their jobs in the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, have nearly returned to their prepandemic employment levels. So have textile mills, paper products companies and computer equipment makers.Manufacturers say the numbers could be even stronger, if not for their continued difficulties attracting and hiring skilled workers amid 3.7 percent unemployment.Fernando Torres, vice president of operations for Greene Tweed, a Pennsylvania-based manufacturer of materials and components used by the aerospace and semiconductor industries, said his company has had to become more flexible to attract new workers and offer more attractive salaries and benefits. He has been looking for employees with different backgrounds that the company can train to develop the skills to fill open jobs, and said that it has been hard to retain staff because competitors are aggressively trying to lure them away.But Mr. Torres said that Greene Tweed, which employs just fewer than 2,000 workers, did not plan to give up, considering the demand for his company’s products.“We are looking for lots of employees,” Mr. Torres said. “We are not looking at slowing down.”Chuck Wetherington, president of BTE Technologies, a manufacturer of medical devices based in Maryland, said that he was trying to expand his work force of around 40 by 10 percent. A lack of workers, he said, has become a bigger problem than supply chain disruptions.“Our backlog continues to grow,” Mr. Wetherington said at a National Association of Manufacturers briefing. “I just can’t find the employees.”Mr. Biden has pushed a variety of legislative initiatives to boost domestic manufacturing, including direct spending on infrastructure, tax credits and other subsidies for companies like battery makers and semiconductor factories, and new federal procurement requirements that benefit manufacturers located in the United States. Biden administration officials say those policies could play a decisive role in further encouraging factory job growth in the coming months and years, in hopes of continuing the expansion and possibly pushing factory employment back to pre-2008 levels.Other factors could help hasten more American manufacturing. Delayed deliveries, sky-high shipping prices and other supply chain issues during the pandemic have encouraged some chief executives to think about moving production closer to home. The average price to ship a 40-foot container internationally has fallen sharply in recent months, but it is still three times higher than it was before the pandemic, according to tracking by the freight booking platform Freightos.A container ship at the Port of Los Angeles. As Covid-19 crimped global supply chains, domestic manufacturing became more attractive to some companies.Stella Kalinina for The New York TimesBusinesses are also beginning to question the wisdom of producing so many goods in China, amid rising tensions between Washington and Beijing over trade and technology. The Chinese government’s insistence on a zero-Covid policy, despite the severe disruptions it has caused for the economy, has especially shaken many executives’ confidence in their ability to operate in China. Mr. Biden has also maintained many tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by Mr. Trump.“The pandemic response by China has definitely prompted more than a rethink on where to put new money. I think we are actually beginning to see action,” said Mary Lovely, a professor of economics at Syracuse University and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. How much of that investment came to the United States was unclear. “I don’t think anyone really knows,” she added.Ed Gresser, the vice president of trade and global markets at the Progressive Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, said that the United States had seen a noticeable uptick in new manufacturing establishments since 2019, especially in the pharmaceutical sector, which might be a response to the pandemic. Food and beverage establishments have also continued to grow.But while growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector was strong last year, so were imports of manufactured goods, Mr. Gresser said. That suggests, he said, that the growth of manufacturing probably reflects strong consumer demand in the United States through the pandemic, rather than a shift to production in the United States.While attitudes toward doing business in China have quickly soured, patterns of production have been slower to change. A survey of 117 leading companies released in August by the U.S. China Business Council found that business optimism had reached record lows, but U.S. corporations remained overwhelmingly profitable in China, which is still home to the world’s most expansive ecosystem of factories and a lucrative consumer market.Eight percent of the surveyed companies reported moving segments of their supply chain out of China to the United States in the past year, while another 16 percent had moved some operations to other countries. But 78 percent of the companies said they had not shifted any business away from China.The Biden administration is hopeful that new policies — including a manufacturing competitiveness law and a climate law the president signed this summer — will encourage more companies to leave China for the United States, particularly cutting-edge industries like clean energy and advanced computing.Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said in an interview that the laws were already changing the calculus for investment and job creation in the United States. In recent weeks, White House officials have promoted factory announcements from automakers, battery companies and others, directly linked to the climate bill.“One of the most striking things that we are seeing now,” Mr. Deese said, “is the number of companies — U.S. companies and global companies — that are committing to build and expand their manufacturing footprint in the United States, and doing so based on their view that not only did the pandemic highlight the need for more resilience in their supply chains, but that the United States is creating a policy environment that makes long term investment here in the United States more attractive.” More

The value of foreign direct investment into the north of England has risen by almost three-quarters in the past five years while falling in every other part of the UK, including London. Analysis of market data and government statistics carried out by the Northern Powerhouse Partnership lobby group — whose economists include former Treasury minister Lord Jim O’Neill — also shows that the north has increased its share of the UK’s FDI projects from 19 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period, overtaking London. The number of jobs created in the north rose by 18 per cent. O’Neill, who spearheaded the “Northern Powerhouse” push to boost the region’s economy between 2015 and 2016 when George Osborne was chancellor, said the rise represented the only “notable success” to have emerged from the project. He added that the rest of the agenda had “dwindled” under the Tory administrations that followed. During Osborne’s chancellorship the north was marketed heavily to overseas investors, particularly in Asia.The latest analysis, which combined data from fDi Markets, part of the Financial Times group, with those from the Office for National Statistics and the Department for International Trade, shows FDI rising by 72 per cent — from $25.257bn to $43.683bn — across the North West, North East and Yorkshire and the Humber during the years 2017-2021, compared with the previous five-year period. In Greater London and the South East it fell 14 per cent, from $56.26bn to $48.524bn. FDI also fell in all other regions, with Scotland recording the largest drop, at 23 per cent. O’Neill highlighted that Asian investment into the north had risen 7 per cent while it had “plummeted” 56 per cent across the rest of the UK. “I often felt that the Northern Powerhouse concept was better understood by investors in Asia than it was among politicians and financiers in London,” he added. The agenda was designed to capitalise on the potential of northern cities, and to provide a counterweight to London in an economy with some of the greatest regional disparities of any major western country. The project fell out of favour with Tory governments that followed the EU referendum in 2016. But the NPP report argues that the new prime minister Liz Truss’s goal of hitting 2.5 per cent economic growth will require “higher productivity overall — which means closing the north-south divide”, including through FDI. FDI into some sectors nevertheless dropped sharply in the north during the five-year period, including into coal, oil and gas, industrial equipment and automotive components, all once regional strengths. These falls were offset by much larger increases of foreign investment into electrical components, where the value rose ninefold, followed by biotech. That was particularly the case in Osborne’s own seat in Cheshire, near Greater Manchester, where the departure of AstraZeneca for Cambridge in 2014 had caused concern.But Jessica Bowles, director of strategy at property company Bruntwood, part of the public-private Manchester Science Park partnership that now owns AstraZeneca’s former base at Alderley Park, said there had since been a surge in FDI.“I think what we’ve done really well over the last five to eight years is be really clear about where our specialisms are — so a biotech and life sciences focus and an understanding of our strengths across the north,” she said.“I would like to see it capitalised upon. I think understanding of this success is patchy across government.”International trade secretary Kemi Badenoch said overseas investment had created more than 50,000 jobs across the north in the past five years, describing it as “great news” that would be capitalised upon through the government’s tax-cutting agenda, which was designed to “allow businesses to invest more of their profits and boost our attractiveness to overseas investors”.  More

The writer is chair of Rockefeller InternationalIn periods of gloom like this one, when commentators see nothing but faults in most countries, it is worth highlighting the few that defy the prevailing pessimism. Here are seven that stand out in a world tipping towards recession and higher inflation: Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Greece, Portugal, Saudi Arabia and Japan.They share some combination of relatively strong growth, moderate inflation or strong stock market returns — compared with other countries. By fascinating coincidence, most of them also defy deep biases about the supposedly dim prospects of certain countries, cultures and systems. The least surprising name on my list is Vietnam, a case study in communism that works. As geopolitical tensions increase with China, western businesses are hedging their bets by adopting a “China plus one” strategy — and often the “one” extra sourcing destination is Vietnam. By investing heavily in the infrastructure required of a manufacturing export power, and opening its doors, Vietnam is growing at nearly 7 per cent, the fastest pace in the world. Criticism of the economic trials of Muslim countries long ignored the most populous one, Indonesia. Resource rich, it is benefiting from the global commodity price boom, but with a domestic market of 276mn it is not overly dependent on exports. It has unusually low debt compared with other developing economies, and an unusually stable currency in a year when most currencies are falling sharply against the dollar. The result, a benign mix of 5 per cent growth with less than 5 per cent inflation, makes Indonesia a shining example of economically adept Islam.Though India’s growth is always flattered by its low base, its economy will continue to be one of the world’s fastest growing. Policymakers have done just enough reform to draw in investors who, spooked by the regulatory crackdowns in China, are now gravitating to the second largest emerging economy. New investment in digital services and manufacturing are bearing fruit and the vast domestic market insulates India from global recession. Some of the “Pigs” — the countries at the core of the eurozone debt crisis a decade ago — are now in revival mode. Greece and Portugal have cut their government deficits by more than half, and are less exposed than most of Europe to gas supply shocks emanating from Russia.Greece is getting a boost from a revival in foreign investment — and in tourism, which Covid had cut from 20 to 15 per cent of its gross domestic product. Less than 10 per cent of bank loans are non-performing, down from 50 per cent during the crisis. Now growing at more than 4 per cent, with inflation coming down fast, Greece is enjoying one of the region’s healthiest recoveries. Portugal is in a similar place. It is wisely investing support funds from the EU and reforming one of the continent’s most excessively generous pension systems, while a special “golden visa” attracts a tide of rich new émigrés. Perhaps not coincidentally, the best performing stock market in the developed world this year is Lisbon’s. The Pigs acronym is passé. Saudi Arabia is leading a movement among Gulf states to diversify beyond oil. Reforms, including loosening restrictions on women, workers, tourists and nightlife, have helped push projected growth to nearly 6 per cent over the next two years. The regime is investing oil money in infrastructure, including 10 smart cities which promise a futuristic and car-free version of urban life. Though harshly criticised for political repression and with some distance to go on civil rights, the kingdom is also expanding economic freedoms and putting this petrostate at the forefront of green urban development.The most surprising country on my list is Japan, where growth is actually picking up. After being dogged by deflation for years, Japan is also the rare country that gains from a return of inflation — now running just over 2 per cent. Its supposedly weak corporate culture has been raising profit margins. Labour costs are now lower in Japan than in China. The cheap yen is boosting exports and could revive animal spirits in the market as a late reopening from Covid restrictions draws back visitors.Any of these economies could, of course, falter, undone by a turn in leadership, policy or by complacency. Still, these nations are already among the top performing stock markets this year. Amid well-founded worry about global prospects, a new set of winners is emerging. More

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan likely won’t intervene in the currency market to defend a line-in-the-sand such as 145 yen versus the dollar, and instead limit any further action to smoothing operations aimed at taming volatility, former top currency diplomat Naoyuki Shinohara said.After the dollar’s spike to near 146 yen, Japan intervened in the currency market on Thursday to buy yen for the first time since 1998. Finance minister Shunichi Suzuki signalled readiness to step in again if yen moves become too volatile.Shinohara, who oversaw Tokyo’s currency policy during the Lehman crisis in 2008, said any further yen-buying intervention will be limited in scale given Japan’s need to avoid drawing criticism from G7 advanced nations.”It’s unlikely Japan will continue intervening to defend a certain line, such as 145 yen to the dollar,” said Shinohara, who retains close ties with incumbent policymakers.”It’s impossible to reverse the market’s broad trend with intervention alone,” he told Reuters in an interview on Saturday. “The most authorities can do is to soothe markets when currency moves become very volatile.”The dollar slid to near 140 yen shortly after Thursday’s intervention, but bounced back above 143 yen by Friday. It stood at 143.320 yen in early Asia trade on Monday.The United States likely did not criticise Japan’s action on Thursday since Tokyo described it as countering “excess volatility,” which the G7 agrees could hurt growth, he said.But Washington will likely voice opposition if Tokyo repeatedly steps into the market, or gives the impression it is preventing the yen from falling below a certain level, said Shinohara, who also served as deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund until 2015.The yen has hovered around 24-year lows against the dollar as investors focused on the widening policy divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes and the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) pledge to maintain ultra-low rates.Tokyo’s intervention came shortly after the yen’s dive triggered by the BOJ’s decision to keep ultra-low rates, and governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s post-meeting comments that rates likely won’t rise for several more years.The yen’s downtrend will be hard to reverse as long as the BOJ maintains ultra-low rates, Shinohara said.”Kuroda appeared determined more than ever before to maintain ultra-easy policy, which is tantamount to declaring the BOJ will keep pumping yen to markets,” Shinohara said.The BOJ’s dovish stance contradicts the goal of the government’s yen-buying intervention, which seeks to prop up the currency by mopping up yen from the market, he said.”Japan is stepping on the accelerator and the brakes at the same time. When you do that with your car, you either damage the brakes or lose control of your steering wheel,” Shinohara said.”I don’t think Japan can keep doing this for too long.” More

ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Hedge funds went into the Fed’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting betting on a sign that a dovish pivot is looming onto the horizon. They got a pivot, but unfortunately for them it was a double-down, hawkish signal that interest rates will continue rising until inflation is firmly heading back towards target, no matter the economic fallout.The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s report shows that speculators cut their short positions in interest rate, S&P 500, and Treasuries futures in the week to Sept. 20, and significantly reduced their net long dollar position.A short position is essentially a wager that an asset’s price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and rates, yields fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.Perhaps it was inevitable that funds scaled back exposure ahead of the Fed’s decision. Some positions, and the underlying assets, were already at or close to historical extremes – the dollar at a 20-year peak, implied Fed rates near 4%, and Wall Street and Treasuries having one of their worst years ever.In the days following the third rate hike of 75 basis points and clear message of more tightening ahead, however, stocks and bonds sank, and rates and the dollar soared. There’s every chance funds will have re-loaded up on their “doom and gloom” trades.”With financial conditions expected to become even more restrictive, our outlook now incorporates a shallow (GDP) downturn in 2023,” Barclays (LON:BARC) U.S. economists wrote on Friday. “With a higher bar for ending hikes, risks of significant overtightening have intensified.”According to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), U.S. financial conditions are now the tightest since April 2020WORST SINCE THE DEPRESSIONThe most remarkable position shifts in the week to Sept. 20 were in currencies, where CFTC speculators and leveraged accounts slashed their bullish dollar bets by around $7 billion to $10.2 billion.That was the biggest weekly shift against the dollar since March 2020. Most of it was due to funds flipping to a net long euro position for the first time since June. The 45,000-contract swing was the biggest since March 2020 and sixth largest since euro futures contracts were launched in the 1980s. It looks like speculators latched onto the European Central Bank’s newfound hawkishness, although that seems misplaced now with the euro comfortably below dollar parity. Similarly, funds reduced their net short sterling position by 13,000 contracts, the biggest move in six weeks. That was before the pound’s 3.5% fall against the dollar on Friday, the seventh largest one-day decline in over 50 years. In rates, CFTC speculators cut their net short position in three-month “SOFR” futures by 33,000 contracts to 788,000 contracts, the smallest net short in seven weeks. They reduced their net short position in 10-year Treasuries futures by 123,000 contracts, the biggest short-covering move in almost five months.And in equities, they scaled back their net short position in S&P 500 futures by 61,500 contracts to 219,500, the smallest net short in two months. That was the most “bullish” weekly swing since May.The selloff across all markets since then, however, has been brutal. According to Charlie Bilello of Compound Capital Advisors, a typical 60/40 portfolio of U.S. stocks and bonds is down 19.3% so far this year, putting 2022 on course to be the second worst year in history after 1931.(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)Related columns: In reverse currency war, there’s only one winner (Sept 23) Jittery markets? Just wait ’til QT really kicks in(Sept 16) Murmurs of ‘sterling crisis’ no longer fanciful (Sept 7) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa Shumaker) More

NEW DELHI (Reuters) -U.S. startup Fisker Inc will begin selling its Ocean electric sport-utility vehicle (SUV) in India next July and could begin manufacturing its cars locally within a few years, the company’s chief executive officer told Reuters. Sales of electric cars in India will gather pace by 2025-26, Henrik Fisker said in an interview in New Delhi, adding that the company wants to secure a first-mover advantage. “Ultimately, India will go full electric. It may not go as fast as the U.S., China or Europe, but we want to be one of the first ones to come in here,” Fisker said.Electric cars currently make up just 1% of India’s roughly 3 million annual car sales, with insufficient charging infrastructure and high battery costs partly to blame for the slow shift.The government, which wants to increase this share to 30% by 2030, is offering companies billions of dollars in incentives to build their EVs and associated parts locally.Fisker rival Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc put its India entry plans on hold after failing to secure a lower import tariff for its cars. Like Fisker, it first wanted to import vehicles to test the market before committing to local manufacturing. While Fisker admitted it is “very expensive” to import vehicles into India, the company wants to use the Ocean to build its brand, with its premium pricing likely to limit numbers, he said.The Ocean retails at around $37,500 in the United States but importing it to India would add logistics costs and a 100% import tax. That would put it out of reach of most buyers in a market where the bulk of cars sold are priced under $15,000.”Ultimately, if you want to have somewhat of a larger volume in India, you almost have to start building a vehicle here or at least do some assembly,” Fisker said. The company’s next EV – the smaller, five-seater PEAR – is being considered for production in India but not before 2026, he said. “If we can get that vehicle just below $20,000 locally in India, that would be ideal. Then I think we’ll get to a certain volume and market share,” he said, adding that if they find the right local partner the timeline could be shorter.To set up a plant in India would require volume of at least 30,000 to 40,000 cars a year, Fisker said.He did not directly comment on the size of investment the company considered necessary, but said that to set up a plant with an annual production capacity of 50,000 cars would likely cost $800 million in India.Fisker has a contract manufacturing agreement with Magna International (NYSE:MGA) which will produce the Ocean at its Austrian unit and ship it to India. It also has an agreement with Foxconn to build the PEAR.The company is scouting for real estate space to open a New Delhi showroom and is meeting auto component suppliers to source parts for its global production, he said.”Already we are starting to build some relationships,” he said. More

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Sterling slumped to a record low on Monday as investors piled in to dollars and out of almost everything else, spooked by the prospect of high interest rates and poor growth ahead.The pound plunged nearly 5% at one point to $1.0327, breaking below 1985 lows as confidence in Britain’s economic management and assets evaporated. Even after stumbling back to $1.05, the currency is down 7% in two sessions.”It’s a case of shoot first and ask questions later, as far as UK assets are concerned,” said National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY)’s head of currency strategy, Ray Attrill in Sydney. The collapse sent the dollar higher broadly and it hit multi-year peaks on the Aussie, kiwi and yuan and a new 20-year top of $0.9528 per euro.In stocks MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1% to a two-year low. It is heading for a monthly loss of 11%, the largest since March 2020. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.2%.The dollar made new highs on sterling, the euro and the Aussie in the thin early hours of the Asia day. [FRX/]Last week, stocks and bonds crumbled after the United States and half a dozen other countries raised rates and projected pain ahead. Japan intervened in currency trade to support the yen. Investors lost confidence in Britain’s economic management.The Nasdaq lost more than 5% for the second week running. The S&P 500 fell 4.8%. [.N]Gilts suffered their heaviest selling in three decades on Friday and on Monday the pound made a 37-year low at $1.0765 as investors reckon planned tax cuts will stretch government finances to the limit. [GB/]Sterling is down 11% this quarter. [GBP/]Five-year gilt yields rose 94 basis points last week, by far the biggest weekly jump recorded in Refinitiv data stretching back to the mid 1980s. Treasuries tanked as well last week, with two-year yields up 35 bps to 4.2140% and benchmark 10-year yields up 25 bps to 3.6970%. [US/]The euro wobbled to a two-decade low at $0.9660 as risks rise of war escalating in Ukraine, before steadying at $0.9686.In Italy, a right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party was on course for a clear majority in the next parliament, as expected. Some took heart from a middling performance by eurosceptics The League.”I expect relatively little impact considering that the League, the party with the least pro-European stance, seems to have come out weak,” said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager and strategist at Anthilia in Milan.Oil and gold steadied after drops against the rising dollar last week. Gold hit a more-than two-year low on Friday and bought $1,643 an ounce on Monday. Brent crude futures sat at $86.29.[GOL/][O/R] More

On Monday we will be picking over the fallout from Italy’s lurch to the right after the completion of a bad-tempered election campaign. The Financial Times got in early with a Big Read on what a far right administration means for the rest of Europe.We also have elections in Latvia, Bulgaria, Kuwait and Bosnia and Herzegovina this week. But the big one will be on Sunday with the first round of the Brazilian presidential election. The race frontrunner is left-wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is far from out of the race. Tensions are running high.A smaller but nonetheless significant ballot takes place on Thursday, when the alderman of the City of London will decide the next lord mayor. This largely ceremonial role will be key to promoting the UK’s financial centre, so it’s important. Hopefully the ballot will not prove as contentious as last year’s.Aside from elections, it is a strong week for space travel. On Monday, Nasa will be crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid at 23,000kph in order to divert its path. The $300mn Dart mission, short for Double Asteroid Redirection Test, has picked as its target an asteroid called Dimorphos because it orbits another asteroid rather than the sun.The US space agency will be busy again the next day with the launch of Artemis I, the first in a series of increasingly complex missions to establish a permanent human base on the moon.If that were not uplifting enough the week will end with the return of the London Marathon, albeit six months later than its usual April slot to enable it to take place at all after the disruption the pandemic brought. CompaniesContinuing the theme of play, Lego (the name is derived from the Danish phrase leg godt, or “play well”) reports half-yearly results on Wednesday. The toymaker has guided analysts to expect a normalising of sales after its pandemic boom but expectations are high that sales will continue to outpace rivals in the sector.For petrol heads, Thursday is an exciting day because shares in Porsche will begin trading on the Frankfurt stock exchange after the long-awaited flotation of the luxury car brand.It is a more sombre week for lovers of the silver screen. Ailing movie house chain Cineworld will report its half-year results on Friday. Although the group is expected to post a profit, contrasting with last year’s loss, focus will turn to its latest cash position and net debt level after the company filed for bankruptcy protection in the US earlier this month.Economic dataThis will be a week of finding out how economies are performing and how the public expect them to perform with gross domestic product figures from the US, Canada and the UK as well as several consumer confidence surveys.We will also get further insights into the battle in Europe to calm inflation with the release of consumer price index and producer price index readings from Germany, France and Italy.Read the full week ahead calendar here. More