Economy

Russia’s central bank cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 7.5 per cent on Friday, but warned that it was running out of room to cut borrowing costs further in the months ahead.Friday’s decision is the sixth consecutive cut since the central bank raised rates to a record 20 per cent following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February.Inflationary pressures have weakened since then, offering policymakers the space to cut rates drastically. But central bank head Elvira Nabiullina said the cycle of loosening was coming to an end — and even hinted at the possibility of a rate rise soon, depending on the economic factors domestically and externally.“With this rate level we estimate that we are in a neutral monetary policy. We see that one-off disinflationary forces are gradually losing their effect, while pro-inflationary risks are rising,” Nabiullina said. “The scope for further reduction in the key rate has narrowed.”The latest cut comes at a time of mounting political and economic pressures on Moscow. The country’s budget surplus has narrowed substantially over the course of the summer, as tensions between Russia and Ukraine’s western allies hit revenues from oil and gas.The surplus is likely to turn into a deficit in September, following Moscow’s decision to halt gas flows to Europe through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The Kremlin has said the tap will remain off until the west lifts sanctions that have affected its equipment maintenance.The central bank has warned that the external environment “remains challenging and continues to significantly constrain economic activity”.In its preceding meeting in July, the central bank cut the rate by 150bp to 8 per cent but has now said “business activity dynamics are better” than it had expected in July.While price pressures are not as strong as in the spring, it said “inflationary expectations of the population and price expectations of enterprises remain at an elevated level”.The central bank on Friday forecast inflation at between 11 and 13 per cent this year, below its earlier estimate of 12 to 15 per cent.The forces that had aided the central bank in recent months, such as the stronger rouble, the population’s inclination to save and increased agricultural production in the summer were diminishing, Nabiullina warned.The bank plans to present an updated economic forecast in October.While the bank has improved its inflation forecast, it expects to only reach its goal of 4 per cent in 2024, with inflation for 2023 estimated at between 5 and 7 per cent. Its growth forecast also improved, though the economy is still expected to shrink by between 4 and 6 per cent this year.Natalia Lavrova, senior economist at BCS Global Markets, expected the bank to become more cautious on the back of the first signs of a reversal in the deflationary trend. “Given the increase in inflationary risks, more cautious steps or even a pause in the monetary easing is becoming a base case scenario for the coming months,” Lavrova said, suggesting the current rate is very close to the bottom.Nabiullina said further decisions would be based on economic behaviour, which was showing signs of improvement but was still prone to external threats.“The coal, metals and forestry industries, where restrictions on supplies of the product are significantly obstructing the work of companies, are in the most difficult position,” she said.Those industries have significantly reduced supplies to the west due to sanctions, while reorienting activity eastward requires new infrastructure and time to build it. More

Retail sales rose 0.3% in August, better than expected but boosted largely by a big jump in motor vehicles and parts dealer receipts.
Weekly jobless claims declined to 213,000, also better than estimates.
Manufacturing readings from the New York and Philadelphia regions suggested the sector is in contraction.

Retail sales numbers were better than expected in August as price increases across a multitude of sectors offset a considerable drop in gas station receipts, the Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Advance retail sales for the month increased 0.3% from July, better than the Dow Jones estimate for no change. The total is not adjusted for inflation, which rose 0.1% in August, suggesting that spending outpaced price increases.

Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index rose 8.3% over the past year through August, while retail sales increased 9.1%.
However, excluding autos, sales decreased 0.3% for the month, below the estimate for a 0.1% increase. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose 0.3%.
Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers led all categories, rising 2.8%, helping to offset the 4.2% decline in gas stations, whose receipts tumbled as prices fell sharply. Online sales also decreased 0.7%, while bar and restaurant sales rose 1.1%.
Revisions to the July numbers pointed to further consumer struggles, with the initially reported unchanged but to a decline of 0.4%.
Also, the “control” group that economists use to boil down retail sales, was unchanged from July. The group excludes sales from auto dealers, building materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores, and is what the government uses to calculate retail’s share of GDP.

“Higher inflation drove the top line sales figure but volumes are obviously falling because on a real basis, sales are negative,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “Core retail sales being well below expectations will result in a cut to GDP estimates for Q3 as stated.”

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, called the release “a mixed report, but we see no cause for alarm.” He said the slump in housing will depress some related sales numbers, but overall spending should up as real incomes rise.
The retail numbers led a busy day for economic data.
Elsewhere, initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 10 totaled 213,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week and better than the 225,000 estimate. Import prices in August fell 1%, less than the expected 1.2% decline.
Two manufacturing gauges showed mixed results: The New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Index for September showed a reading of -1.5, a massive 30-point jump from the previous month. However, the Philadelphia Fed’s gauge came in at -9.9, a big drop from the 6.2 in August and below the expectation for a positive 2.3 reading.
The two Fed readings reflect the percentage of companies reporting expansion versus contraction, suggesting manufacturing was broadly in a pullback for the month.
The reports, however, pointed to some softening in price pressures. For New York, the prices paid and prices received indexes respectively declined 15.9 and 9.1 points, though both remained solidly in growth territory with readings of 39.6 and 23.6. In Philadelphia, prices paid fell nearly 14 points but prices received increased 6.3 points. Those indexes respectively were 29.8 and 29.6, indicating that prices are still rising overall but at a slower pace.
Correction: Retail sales increased 9.1% over the past year through August. An earlier version misstated the percentage.

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Simon Hinrichsen is a EM debt portfolio manager at Sampension, wrote his PhD thesis on sovereign debt restructuring, and briefly worked on FT Alphaville back in the day. He’s now also lecturing at the University of Copenhagen, so we asked him to write up his how-to restructuring guide for FTAV readers. After almost two decades of relative tranquility, a violent rash of sovereign debt defaults looms on the horizon.Mozambique, Lebanon, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Belize, Russia, Ukraine, and Zambia have all defaulted or restructured their debts in the past few years. Many other countries have already priced in a high risk of restructuring this year and next. It might therefore be a good time for a primer on how countries can restructure their debts.The underlying assumption for almost all sovereign debt these days is that loans will not be repaid fully but rolled over. Nominal debt stocks tend to rise over time and bullet loans — the standard in sovereign borrowing — are replaced by new loans as they mature. A crisis can therefore happen quickly if it is impossible to borrow new money (for whatever reason).

Let’s skip the niceties and assume that a country is out of money but wants to remain a part of the global financial system (so no total repudiations of debt à la Russia 1918). The country needs to restructure its liabilities, and it might even already have defaulted by not paying a coupon (a contractual failure to pay). Even if it doesn’t default contractually, it will do so substantially by forcing a distressed debt exchange. The outcome will be classified as a sovereign debt default regardless of the type of default or severity of outcome.The problemA debt restructuring is fundamentally about allocating economic costs to someone. Countries want the burden of adjustment to fall on external creditors. Creditors want the burden to fall on taxpayers. The problem is one of resource allocation and identification of why the debt is unsustainable, and to what degree. The first step in a debt workout is to figure out what the problem is: chronic low growth, falling commodity prices, no export sector, a bankrupt financial sector, the maturity structure of your debt, too large a debt stock, or hidden debt that wasn’t disclosed? Perhaps the debt was manageable at low interest rates, but now interest rates are high and servicing the loans is a budgetary problem? Citizens don’t like that, which makes it a political problem. Sovereign defaults have occurred for all of the above reasons (some more often than others). Normally it’s a mix of factors, but understanding the root cause is a first step in a successful restructuring. If it is a liquidity problem caused by a pandemic, maybe the country just needs temporary help? Perhaps the problem is that the country has a debt stock that is several times its annual export earnings, in which case the problem is fundamental. The restructuring must address the problem.The second step is to find out what type of debt the country has. Is the debt external? If yes, what kind of external debt — governed by foreign law, issued in foreign currency, or held by foreigners? What share of the debt is domestic? If the debt is governed by domestic law, it is easier to restructure legally, but if all the sovereign debt is owned by your financial system, maybe a restructuring will cause a domestic financial crisis that just makes everything worse.Maybe most of the liabilities are not even directly on the government books but rather guaranteed state-owned enterprises that need to be part of a restructuring? Any initial analysis should answer these questions.The restructuring processThe first issue is whether to go to the IMF or not. The IMF can come in and do a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and lend credibility to the macroeconomic numbers. A DSA is a prerequisite for a restructuring at the Paris Club, but, more importantly, it sets out how much debt a country is likely to be able to pay “sustainably”. The Fund does an analysis of the balance of payments and the debt stock among other things (see for example Zambia’s DSA from last week here), and the IMF can provide stop-gap financing if there is a credible way to make debt sustainable. The downside is that IMF programs often come with strings attached, such as “reforms” that a country might not find very appealing. The reality is that any IMF programme is a political art, not science. The benefit is that the IMF has done many restructurings before, as have most of the lawyers and bankers involved on either side. A sovereign debt restructuring has no set process — but the players and the tools involved are usually the same.

The tools used to restructure debt are always the same, however. It involves an exchange of old claims for news claims, where the new claims have different characteristics: lower principal value, lower coupons, or longer maturity. It’s usually a mix, but the composition depends on what the problem is — and what you can get creditors to agree to. If the debt stock is manageable, but all the debt is due in the next two months, maybe a “reprofiling” of the maturities is all that is needed. If the debt stock is too high, maybe principal haircuts are required, or maybe a lowering of the coupon until after any reforms are enacted and growth hopefully picks up. Once this analysis is done — usually behind closed doors together with the advisers and the IMF — the doors are opened and some sort of negotiation starts.The DSA probably suggest what debt to restructure and what debt to exclude (and what debt to pay!) Generally, you’ll want to exclude some types of claims needed to keep the economy going, such as trade credits (to maintain and facility international trade) and Treasury bills (for short-term financing). But it depends on the problem and the debt stock. Trade credits and T-bills are usually excluded from restructurings, but not always — if 80 per cent of a country’s debt is T-bills then you can’t really exclude them.

The process from here depends on what type of debt the country has and on its creditors. It’s a good idea to start where you can get the best deal and have the most friends. Negotiations with bilateral creditors can happen between politicians or at a bureaucratic levels. Normally it’s done at the French finance ministry (the Paris Club), where most developed countries are members (but importantly not China). There are generally two ways to go about dealing with commercial creditors: either a creditor consultation via an adviser, which will report back to the country/IMF, or a negotiation with creditor committees made up (usually) of the biggest lenders. Committees can verify a deal and might make others creditors comfortable that it’s the best deal on the table (after all, no creditor wants to give debt relief only to see someone else repaid in full).The playersFirst the borrower. A sovereign county is a unique debtor. It is very difficult to force a country to do anything. There’s no sovereign bankruptcy code, no way to work out defaulted debt, and seizing state assets is very difficult. Do you want to try to seize Russian assets?What a state has is its reputation and a wish to be part of global society. Countries are supposed to pay their debts under the doctrine of state succession (one of the international laws that are generally adhered to), but states are political entities. The debtor responds to domestic political incentives. A judge in New York might tell a country to do one thing but getting a country to respond is a different thing. Countries are often not in a rush.Then there are the creditors. Creditors are important because they lend money, but on the other hand they don’t vote. Because most sovereign debt restructurings start out with an IMF DSA, the creditors are already pitted against each other if one or more classes of debt are excluded from a potential restructuring. So it’s a zero-sum game. Oftentimes a creditor’s main opponent is not so much the debtor but rather other creditors.

The senior creditors are normally multilateral institutions (IMF, the World Bank, some development banks) which often have “preferred creditor status”. The IMF is paid before everyone else. Sometimes preferred creditor status is also given to some wannabe-multilaterals (EIB, ECB, KDB, etc), but if too many get it that’s not great for junior creditors. Creditors can be bilateral lenders (other countries, which negotiate at the Paris Club or individually), banks or bondholders (which usually form committees), trade creditors (often on their own but with political backing), households, or state entities. Each will argue their case. Some creditors can be more of a pain than others, as some are litigious or prone not to accept a deal. Each creditor tries to talk their way up the capital structure. If you cannot talk your way up the capital structure, you want to make sure that everyone else shares in the pain. If you’re a local bondholder, you say the financial system will go belly-up if you are restructured. If you’re an international bondholder, you mutter that the country will never be able to borrow in global markets again if you’re restructured. In extremis you say that you will go bankrupt if there is a restructuring and lobby your own government to help you negotiate — as banks in Europe did with Greek sovereign debt. You argue it’s cheaper to extend credit to Greece so they can roll over their debt rather than having to recapitalise some French or German bank. The legal aspectsA legal analysis is needed to figure out the tactical approach. International law is difficult to enforce, but legal analysis still plays a very important role in today’s sovereign debt world — mainly because most debt contracts are governed by New York or English law. The first step is to figure out how much of your debt is domestic law, which is easier to deal with, and how much is foreign law. Then you figure out how many of your bonds have old pari passu clauses, what type of collective action clauses govern the bonds, if some loans have weird clauses, and if the overall debt stock invites litigation. Some countries, like Ukraine, have relatively recently-issued debt that is easier to aggregate and thus restructure, while others, such as Zambia, have older contracts which might provide creditors or debtors some legal upper hand.As a creditor, you try to figure out if your bond can be aggregated. Should you accelerate if there is a default? Get a judgment? Can you hold out for a better deal while other creditors restructure? Maybe you have an old, non-performing loan. If you have written it down already, it’s surely better to be able to collect on a smaller loan. Of course, if you want to sue, it’s important to get your strategy right, but also to remember that lawyers are expensive.We’ll see a lot of variations of sovereign debt restructurings in the coming years. Some restructurings will be smooth, others . . . not so much. Consider this a bit of free advice for debtors and creditors alike.Further reading:The Restructuring Process — Buchheit et al. (2019)Government bonds since Waterloo — Meyer et al. (2021)The aftermath of sovereign debt crises: a narrative approach — Esteves et al. (2021)The seniority structure of sovereign debt — Schlegl (2019). More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Swiss National Bank will join the 75 basis point rate hike club on Thursday to choke off nearly three-decade-high inflation, according to economists polled by Reuters, who also said price rises were yet to peak despite a strong currency.Last week, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan shared similar concerns and stated the inflation outlook was more uncertain than normal, suggesting more aggressive rate hikes were needed. That expectation for a jumbo rate increase boosted the Swiss franc to its strongest level against the euro since January 2015 on Sept. 15, despite a similar 75 basis point hike from the European Central Bank earlier in the month.The strong franc, which will “help rather than hurt,” according to the SNB, is likely to hold those gains over the coming months as several more rate rises are likely in store.Fifteen of 23 economists forecast the SNB – currently the only central bank in the world with a negative policy rate, at -0.25% – to hike by 75 basis points on Sept. 22 to 0.50%, in line with market pricing.One predicted a 100 basis point hike. The rest expected a 50 basis point rise.”The SNB is benefiting from the room for maneuver created by the ECB’s 75 bps increase at its September meeting. High inflation and a barely over-valued Swiss franc are likely to prompt the SNB to use this leeway,” said Alessandro Bee, economist at UBS.”The strong mark-ups in the gas and electricity market in the short term suggest that inflation could be higher than expected. We believe the SNB may follow the ECB’s September monetary policy assessment and raise its interest rates from -0.25% to 0.50%.”A strong majority of economists, 14 of 17, who replied to a separate question said the chances were low the SNB would go for a 100 basis point rise like the Bank of Canada recently did. Markets are pricing around a 47% probability of such a hike.”Investors expect the SNB to tighten substantially at its upcoming meetings, but we think that they have got ahead of themselves,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics.”After all, while headline inflation is historically high, it is low by international standards…The Bank seems comfortable with the strength of the franc, which is stemming imported inflation.”The SNB has recently departed from a campaign it waged for years to rein in the safe-haven currency, whose strength has restrained its export-reliant economy.Still, 10 of 15 economists said inflation, which has remained above the SNB’s target range of 0-2% for seven straight months, had not peaked yet. Most economists said it would peak at some point next quarter.Price pressures will remain elevated beyond Q4 and is not expected to decline below 2% until 2024.A majority of economists expected the Bank to hike by 25 basis points in Q4 2022, Q1 2023 and Q2 2023, taking the rate to a peak of 1.25%. However, all but one economist said the risks were skewed toward a higher terminal rate than they expected.The ECB, for its part, is due to take its key interest rates significantly higher.”Rate hikes are not the only tool the SNB uses for policy tightening. CHF appreciation…didn’t fully prevent a surge in Swiss inflation, but contained it to 3.5% year over year at peak compared with over 9% in the euro area,” noted analysts at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Securities.”That policy mix…is why we eventually expect a lower terminal rate from the SNB than the 2.50% deposit rate we think the ECB will reach at the same time.”(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) More

US mortgage rates hit 6 per cent this week, the highest level in 14 years, adding to fears about the housing market. But Americans live in a socialist paradise. Homeowners are shielded from rising interest rates by 30-year government-backed fixed deals. When rates fall, the mortgage can be refinanced, locking in cheaper payments. When rates rise, no pain is passed on.Most of the world lacks this insulation. Refinancing at a higher rate is an increasingly grim prospect for individuals and companies alike. Fitch has warned that borrowers in the UK, Spain and Australia are especially exposed, with between 42 per cent and 93 per cent of mortgages tracking central bank rates or with short-term fixed deals set to expire.This sounds like bad news for the banks. But the consensus is the opposite: margins will improve as lenders jack up rates for borrowers while passing on crumbs to depositors. And this happy situation is supposedly durable because the system has been made safer since the financial crisis.Alastair Ryan, analyst at Bank of America, noted that at the UK’s last serious housing downturn way back in 1989, some 58 per cent of first-time buyers borrowed at a loan-to-value ratio of 95 per cent or more. Last year only 0.2 per cent were permitted to borrow at that level. Despite soaring prices in the interim, houses in Britain are selling at lower multiples of income than 33 years ago. Back then, homeowners were using their houses as cash machines, with mortgage equity withdrawal equivalent to 6 per cent of post-tax household income. This phenomenon has vanished; people make early repayments instead. This conservatism on lending, much of it forced by regulators, may be dire for the prospects of young people hoping to buy a home, but it certainly buttresses banks’ balance sheets. Providing further comfort, regulators put banks through annual stress tests to gauge their ability to endure an economic shock, which they generally pass. But the real world never matches the forecasts. The last UK stress test in 2021 envisaged an unemployment rate of 12 per cent with low inflation. The reverse has happened. Markets have consistently underestimated the level and persistence of inflation and the strength of central bank medicine required to cure it. At the same time as energy and grocery bills surge, mortgage costs will also be rising for more and more homeowners and landlords. This may not cause a financial crisis, but it is not hard to see it causing a housing slump.On the corporate front, many of the largest borrowers have exploited the era of cheap money to extend maturity dates on their debt. High inflation shrinks the value of that debt over time.But this ignores large swaths of the corporate world that are too small or too weak to tap markets for this cheap long-term financing.

The Financial Times this week profiled some of the companies with bond yields trading at more than 10 percentage points above government debt. They include household names such as Bed Bath & Beyond and WeWork. Some of this debt is maturing in the next 12 months. A great deal more comes due in 2024 and 2025.It is a worrying time for anyone without the luxury of a US mortgage. More

The group – which comprises China, India, Russia and Pakistan alongside four Central Asian states – said “interested SCO member states” had agreed a “roadmap for the gradual increase in the share of national currencies in mutual settlements”, and called for an expansion of the practice.No further details were provided and the group did not say who the “interested states” were.Moscow is seen as the main driver of the push towards national currencies as it tries to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and other Western currencies for trade following the imposition of sweeping new Western sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine in February.Last week, the Russian gas producer Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) said China would pay for half its Russian gas supplies in roubles and half in Chinese yuan. Previous contracts have been denominated in euros or dollars, the dominant reference currency for global oil trade.Leading oil producer Iran, like Russia subject to broad international economic and financial sanctions, is also on the verge of joining the SCO. More

The central bank officials spoke in Russian. The quotes below were translated into English by Reuters.NABIULLINA ON FOREIGN AND CRYPTOCURRENCIES”The currencies that we are used to, the reserve currencies – the dollar, the euro – have become toxic for many holders, because there are risks of (asset) freezes.””We see of course see that banks are trying to lower these risks … but it will always be possible to change foreign currency into roubles.””Our position is that we are ready to discuss ways to use digital financial assets (DFA), including cryptocurrencies, for international settlements, but we continue to oppose the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and are against its free circulation within the country.””As for the digital rouble, we are very actively working on this project, and we consider it very important for the development of the financial system. We are now testing the digital rouble with 15 banks, but this is strictly a test.”NABIULLINA ON FUTURE RATE CHANGES”As we are close to the end of the easing cycle, we accept that the next step, as well as keeping the rate, could be a hike. However, we do not rule out a rate cut either.””We really think that the room for a further rate cut is shrinking.””Of course, we will look at the data, we cannot rule out some other movements, but the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased.”NABIULLINA ON RATE CUT”We assess that we are in the zone of a neutral monetary policy.””We considered three options – a cut of 25 basis points, a cut of 50 basis points, and keeping the rate unchanged.”NABIULLINA ON INFLATION”We do not rule out that annual inflation in first-half 2023 will be below 4%.””We see that one-time disinflationary factors are gradually losing their strength, while inflationary risks are growing.””People are now more inclined to save than to spend.””We are concerned that inflation expectations remain high.” More

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Five Lebanese banks were held up by depositors seeking access to their own money frozen in the banking system on Friday in a spiralling spate of holdups this week spurred by frustration over a financial implosion with no end in sight.A total of seven banks have been held up since Wednesday in Lebanon, where commercial banks have locked most depositors out of their savings since an economic crisis took hold three years ago, leaving much of the population unable to pay for basics.On Friday morning, an armed man identified as Abed Soubra entered BLOM Bank in the capital’s Tariq Jdideh neighbourhood demanding his deposit, the bank told Reuters.He was still locked in the branch hours later, telling Reuters by phone that he had handed over his gun to security forces and just wanted his money.”I’ll stay here three, four, five days – I won’t move until I get my deposit,” he said.Soubra said he had a refused an offer by the bank to take a portion of his $300,000 in savings with a significant haircut and in the deteriorating local Lebanese currency. “I deposited by money in dollars, I want them back in dollars,” he said.Soubra was cheered on by a large crowd of people gathered outside, including Bassam al-Sheikh Hussein, who carried out the very first hold-up in August to get his own deposits from his bank, which dropped charged against him. “We’re going to keep seeing this happen as long as people have money inside. What do you want them to do? They don’t have another solution,” said Hussein, who got around $30,000 from his savings of $200,000.BANKS ARE ‘WORTH MY SHOE’Lebanon’s banks association announced a three-day closure next week over mounting security concerns and called on the government to pass necessary laws to deal with the crisis.Authorities have been slow to pass reforms that would grant them access to $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund to ease the crisis. Among the laws-in-waiting is a capital controls law, still being debated by parliament. In its absence, banks have imposed unilateral limits on most depositors, allowing them to retrieve limited amounts each week in U.S. dollars or Lebanese pounds.Withdrawals in Lebanese pounds are worth less and less, as the lira has lost more than 95% of its value since 2019 and edged towards a new low of around 38,000 to the dollar this week.Banks say they allow exceptional withdrawals for humanitarian cases including healthcare payments but depositors say the banks have not stuck to their word. In Friday’s first case, a man was able to retrieve a portion of his funds from the Ghazieh branch of Byblos Bank before being arrested, the source said, adding that the weapon in his possession was believed to be a toy.Byblos Bank could not immediately be reached for comment.Another incident saw a man with a pellet gun enter a branch of LGB Bank in Beirut’s Ramlet al-Bayda area seeking to withdraw some $50,000 dollars in savings, a bank employee said.Then, Mohammad al-Moussawi threatened the Banque Libano-Francaise bank with a fake gun and managed to get $20,000 in cash out of his account, he said by phone.”This banking system is tricking us and it’s worth my shoe,” he said, telling Reuters he would be going into hiding.BLF Bank told Reuters the incident “took five minutes” and that no employees were harmed. The fifth incident on Friday afternoon saw a man fire shots inside a branch of BankMed as he sought access to his own savings, an industry source told Reuters.The source said the man was a member of Lebanon’s security forces and that there were no immediate reports of injuries. Friday’s incidents followed two others in the capital of Beirut and in the town of Aley on Wednesday in which depositors were able to access a portion of their funds by force, using toy pistols mistaken for real weapons.Lebanon’s banking association urged authorities on Thursday to hold accountable those engaging in “verbal and physical attacks” on banks and said lenders themselves would not be lenient. More