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    FedEx warns of worsening economy and pulls forecast; shares drop 16%

    (Reuters) -FedEx Corp on Thursday withdrew the financial forecast it issued just three months ago, saying a global demand slowdown accelerated at the end of August and was on pace to worsen in the November quarter.Shares in the global delivery firm tumbled more than 16% after it also reported revenue and profit for the first-quarter ended Aug. 31 that missed Wall Street targets. S&P 500 futures fell on Thursday as FedEx (NYSE:FDX) added to worries about a slowing global economy.Altogether, a worldwide slowdown in economic activity caused shortfalls in FedEx Express revenues of $500 million and FedEx Ground revenues of $300 million in the quarter, FedEx said.FedEx said it was cutting costs including shutting some FedEx Office locations, reducing labor hours and consolidating some sorting facilities.The warning comes as consumers around the world are struggling with higher costs for necessities like food, fuel and shelter at the same time as they are shifting spending away from e-commerce back to in-person shopping, dining and travel.The World Bank earlier on Thursday said the world’s three largest economies – the United States, China, and the euro area – have been slowing sharply, and even a “moderate hit to the global economy over the next year could tip it into recession.”Some experts said FedEx should have caught wind of cooling demand much more quickly – especially after Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) said it over built warehouses, U.S. seaport directors signaled decelerating imports and consumer discretionary spending continued to struggle due to inflation. “They should have seen this coming a month ago,” said Satish Jindel, an industry consultant who helped start and expand the company that became FedEx Ground.FedEx overestimated demand for last year’s peak holiday shipping season, drawing complaints from its independent contractors who paid for unneeded trucks and workers. Shippers like FedEx and UPS imposed a variety of surcharges during the pandemic for issues from fuel to special handling, and those profit-boosting charges are at risk, said Jindel.CLIMATE “CHALLENGING”FedEx on Thursday said business has been hit by service challenges in Europe and macroeconomic issues in Asia. The region’s biggest economy, China, is grappling with COVID-19 lock downs and heat wave-induced power outages.The warning dragged down shares of rival delivery companies as well as retailers in extended trading. United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) dropped 5%, while Amazon fell 1.9%.FedEx expects to report revenue of $23.2 billion for the first quarter, missing analysts’ expectations of $23.59 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES. Adjusted earnings are expected to be $3.44 per share, well below estimates of $5.14.The company withdrew its forecast for the fiscal year.The wide gulf between FedEx’s performance and Wall Street’s expectations comes after analysts had already tempered estimates for the quarter, said Cowen analyst Helane Becker, who added that company shares have shed about 10% of their value since they issued their now-withdrawn forecast in June.And the warning will likely ramp up pressure on FedEx’s new chief executive officer, Raj Subramaniam, to close a profitability gap with UPS, after it ceded two director seats to activist investor D.E. Shaw in June.“Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations,” Subramaniam said in a statement. More

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    South Korea's August jobless rate hits record low

    The country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August fell to 2.5% from 2.9% in July, hitting the lowest since the data release began in June 1999, according to the Statistics Korea.The number of employed people increased by 807,000 compared with the same month a year earlier, extending annual gains to an 18th consecutive month. The pace of gains though was milder than 826,000 in July and 841,000 in June.”Employment growth is expected to slow going forward as uncertainties are increasing on worsening external conditions and weaker consumption due to high inflation and interest rate hikes,” vice finance minister Bang Ki-sun said at an economic policy meeting after the data release.The increase was driven mostly by the manufacturing sector, which added 240,000 employees, the biggest under the current categorisation that began in 2013, followed by health and social welfare services’ 123,000 and agriculture and fisheries’ 9,000.By age group, those 60 and older accounted for more than half by adding 454,000, while workers in their 50s, 30s and 20s, increased by 182,000, 98,000 and 65,000, respectively. More

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    S&P 500 futures drop after FedEx stokes fears about economy

    (Reuters) – S&P 500 futures fell on Thursday, suggesting traders expect Wall Street to open down in its next session, after FedEx (NYSE:FDX) withdrew its financial forecast and added to worries about a slowing global economy. After trading resumed following a daily maintenance period, S&P 500 e-mini futures fell 0.6%. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7%.FedEx tumbled 16% late in the day after the company said its fiscal first-quarter results were hit by global volume softness and it withdrew its financial forecast, saying it expected further deterioration of business conditions.That warning hit shares of other delivery companies, as well as retailers. United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) dropped 5.7% in extended trading, while Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) fell 1.8 and Target (NYSE:TGT) dipped nearly 2%. Thursday’s late-day broadside to investor sentiment comes at a sensitive time for Wall Street. During the regular trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1% as a raft of economic data failed to alter the expected course of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve amid growing warnings of global recession.Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said he expects a recession in 2023, and that the Federal Reserve would likely be too aggressive in its interest rate hike campaign aimed at bringing decades-high inflation under control. “It looks like we’re getting to the front of a recession,” Gundlach said during an investor conference call. “The odds of 2023 are high.”Mixed economic data has many investors expecting another 75 basis-point interest rate hike from the Fed at the conclusion of next week’s monetary policy meeting.After falling about 4% so far this week, the S&P 500 remains 6% above its closing low in June, a level some investors had bet would be the lowpoint in this year’s stock market downturn. More

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    FedEx shares plunge 15% after profit warning linked to gloomy economy

    FedEx said it would close offices, freeze hiring and park aircraft in response to a decline in package shipping volumes that prompted the company to issue a profit warning and scrap its guidance for fiscal 2023.The update, from a company considered a bellwether of global economic growth because of the wide range of items it ships, was issued after Wall Street’s closing bell on Thursday and knocked shares down more than 15 per cent to their lowest level in more than two years.FedEx released preliminary results for the three months to August 31 that were weaker than analysts expected, blaming “global volume softness” that “accelerated” in the final weeks of the quarter.The company, which was officially due to report on September 22, said it expected business conditions to further weaken in the second quarter, prompting it to cut its forecast for capital expenditure and withdraw guidance for the remainder of its fiscal year.“Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the US,” said chief executive Raj Subramaniam, who took the reins at the company in June from founder Fred Smith. “We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first-quarter results are below our expectations.”Subramaniam described the performance as “disappointing” and said the company was “aggressively accelerating” efforts to cut costs and enhance productivity.In an effort to mitigate the effects of reduced demand, FedEx announced it would close more than 90 FedEx Office locations, defer staff hiring, cancel certain projects, reduce flights and temporarily park aircraft, among other actions. In its preliminary results, FedEx reported a profit of $3.33 a share in its first quarter, down 19 per cent from a year ago and well below the $5.14 a share Wall Street expected. Revenue increased 5 per cent from a year ago to $23.2bn but was slightly below analysts’ forecast for $23.6bn.The company said it expects business conditions to further weaken in the current quarter and forecast revenue to be in the range of $23.5bn to $24bn, with earnings of $2.65 “or greater” a share. Wall Street expected revenue of $24.9bn and earnings of $5.39 a share.FedEx also cut its forecast for capital spending in the fiscal year to $6.3bn from $6.8bn.Shares were down 15.2 per cent in after-hours trading to their lowest level since early August 2020. More

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    U.S. BNPL consumer debt set to hit $15 billion by 2025 – study

    (Reuters) – U.S. buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) customers’ outstanding debt is estimated to hit $15 billion by 2025, a report by management consultancy firm cg42 said on Thursday. The industry saw a huge boost during the COVID-19 pandemic as homebound consumers opted for online shopping, a trend that urged digital payments giants such as Block Inc and PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL) to expand further in the sector.However, the current uncertainty in macroeconomic outlook due to the geopolitical turmoil, rapidly rising interest rates and red-hot inflation has hit the once high-flying sector. Valuations of some of the biggest players in the space tumbled this year after a stellar 2021. Shares in Affirm Holdings Inc have plunged over 70%, while Swedish rival Klarna cut its valuation by over 80% to $6.7 billion from $46 billion last year. But U.S. BNPL customer base is expected to grow by 27% between 2022 and 2025, the study showed. About 84% of more than 2,000 people surveyed said the BNPL model allows them to purchase items they otherwise would not be able to, while 39% said they “regularly” pay late fees due to missed payments. “Users also put their BNPL payments on their credit cards, setting up a very scary double whammy effect in which individuals who are laid off will get hit with double the fees and have no path to paying off their debts,” said Hugh Tallents, senior partner and financial services practice lead at cg42.”BNPL operates outside of the traditional credit system right now. People don’t think of it as debt and they can’t track how much they hold in aggregate.” The BNPL industry remains popular among younger consumers, many of who are struggling to save and meet their financial goals, and largely unregulated in the United States, one of its biggest markets. More

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    Argentina hikes interest rate 550 bps after inflation overshoots

    BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s central bank hiked the country’s benchmark interest rate 550 basis points to 75% on Thursday, a day after inflation overshot forecasts to near 80% on an annual basis.The hike followed a 950 basis points-raise in August of the 28-day Leliq benchmark rate, as the government tries to bring down spiraling prices that are hurting Argentines’ savings and salaries and denting the popularity of the Peronist government.A positive real interest rate is also one of the points agreed between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a new $44 billion loan deal that the country needs to meet its upcoming debt repayment obligations.Reuters reported at the start of September, citing a source with knowledge of the discussions, that Argentina’s central bank was planning to hike the rate to 75% this month due to the high levels of inflation. More

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    FirstFT: Putin admits there’s a split between Moscow and Beijing

    Good morning. Russian president Vladimir Putin has acknowledged Chinese “concerns” about the war in Ukraine in the first public admission of differences between Beijing and Moscow over the conflict. Putin’s comments came in a meeting with China’s president Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan on Thursday, the first time the two had met in person since the Kremlin launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in February. “We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis,” Putin told Xi, according to a Kremlin transcript. “We understand your questions and concerns about this. During today’s meeting, we will of course explain our position, though we have also spoken about this before.” Putin arrived in Uzbekistan as Russian forces in the north-east of Ukraine have been forced into retreat by a Kyiv counter-offensive that has recaptured important territory, boosted Ukrainian morale and raised questions about whether Moscow can sustain its offensive.Russia has frequently rebuffed claims that it is becoming globally isolated by pointing to increasingly close economic and political ties with China and other non-western nations.Related read: The US and EU are stepping up pressure on Turkey to crack down on Russian sanctions evasion amid concerns that the country’s banking sector is a potential backdoor for illicit finance.Where do you think Russia-China relations will go from here? Tell me what you think at [email protected]. Thanks for reading FirstFT Asia and have a great weekend. — EmilyFive more stories in the news1. White House sounds alert on inbound Chinese investment President Joe Biden has issued an executive order aimed at boosting scrutiny of deals involving foreign companies in high-tech industries such as semiconductors, as part of a continuing effort to address security threats from China. 2. South Korea considers plan to stabilise the won South Korea said it was reviewing “contingency plans” to tackle foreign exchange volatility, with the Korean won hovering at a 13-year low against the US dollar as currencies across Asia come under pressure from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.3. China’s state banks cut deposit rates for first time since 2015 State lenders including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Bank of Communications and Agricultural Bank of China cut interest rates for three-year deposits by 0.15 percentage points yesterday, as Beijing seeks to boost flagging growth in the world’s second-largest economy without risking runaway depreciation of the renminbi.4. Key moment for crypto market Ethereum, the world’s second-biggest blockchain, has completed a long-awaited upgrade to its system in a move expected to slash its energy costs and intended to prepare the ground for more use of crypto technology in mainstream finance. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co-founder, said the upgrade, known in the industry as “The Merge”, had been completed earlier today.5. US Senate panel approves $6.5bn bill to fund weapons for Taiwan The Taiwan Policy Act was passed by a margin of 17-5 by the US Senate foreign relations committee. The bill, which still requires approval by the full Senate and the House, marks the first time the US would directly finance the provision of weapons to Taiwan.How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.The day aheadChina retail sales and industrial production figures When August data is released today, economists expect retail sales to continue their downbeat trend following July’s underwhelming report. (Focus Economics, FT) Top Chinese lawmaker meets South Korean president China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee Chair Li Zhanshu is expected to meet South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol today. Malaysia Day Financial markets will be closed today to mark the establishment of the Malaysian federation. Skandal! premiere The Netflix documentary charting the incredible story of how the Financial Times’ Dan McCrum took down Germany’s huge and fraudulent payment processor Wirecard, will be released globally today.

    Dan McCrum, right, spent seven years investigating the fraudulent payment processor Wirecard, a tale that is still playing out as executives await trial © Courtesy of Netflix

    Join board members and C-suite executives in person or online for the Cyber Resilience Summit on September 21-23 to hear remarks from speakers including Bill Clinton. Register for your pass today. What else we’re reading Xi plan for economic independence Under Xi Jinping — who appears all but certain to secure another term in power next month — China is seeking to become a state-led and self-sufficient techno-superpower that will no longer rely so much on the west. But how realistic is goal in a connected world?Citi opens Málaga hub for junior bankers Málaga is better known for its sunshine and food than banking. But yesterday 27 young recruits started at Citi’s new hub for junior investment bankers. Rivals have dismissed it as a gimmick but the US bank claims it is a way of offering a “better work-life balance” for its new starters. Will it work?Defiance in the rabbit warren of Kyiv’s presidential palace Last week, Gillian Tett took a trip down the darkened corridors of the Ukrainian presidential palace, where despite fighting off a brutal Russian invasion for seven months, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team are intent on delivering the message of business as usual.More on the war: Ukraine’s president was involved in a car accident yesterday after returning to Kyiv from the eastern Kharkiv region. He sustained no serious injuries.How to reboot men for the age of gender equality At the top and the bottom of society, new definitions of masculinity can help all to thrive, writes Simon Kuper. These three recent books trace the outlines of a new masculinism.Scenes from the end of an Elizabethan ageThe state funeral for the Queen on Monday will be a solemn ceremony but in the meantime the public waits to see the body lying in state and pay their respects at Buckingham Palace. Imogen West-Knights joined mourners, lost-looking tour groups and history rubberneckers outside the royal residence.

    Hundreds of thousands of people are travelling to London to mourn the Queen © Benjamin McMahon

    Travel Cafés packed closely along a picturesque single-line train track in Hanoi have reopened after a long Covid shutdown, feeding hopes that the area will again lure visitors to what was once a tourist hotspot. More

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    Railroad Workers Point to Punishing Schedules as Cause of Strike

    Employees say the inflexibility of scheduling upended their personal lives. The companies say they maintained service while using fewer resources.To defuse a labor dispute that brought the nation to the brink of a potentially catastrophic railroad strike, negotiators had to resolve a key issue: schedules that workers say were punishing, upending their personal lives and driving colleagues from the industry.Workers, industry analysts and customers say the practices emanate from a business model that focuses relentlessly on holding down expenses, including labor costs. They say this leaves rail networks with little capacity to work around a disruption, whether it be a personal issue for an employee or a natural disaster like a hurricane — or, for that matter, a pandemic.Negotiations in which the Biden administration took an active role produced a tentative contract deal announced early Thursday. The agreement included a significant pay increase for the workers, whose base wages typically start around $50,000 and top out around $100,000, excluding overtime and benefits. But scheduling was the sticking point.Unions complained that to manage a shortfall of employees, the carriers effectively forced their members to remain on call for days and sometimes weeks at a time, partly through the use of strict attendance policies that could lead to disciplinary action or even firing. They said the policies pushed workers to the limits of their physical and mental health.“Every facet of your life is dictated by this job,” said Gabe Christenson, who until this year worked as a conductor for a large freight rail carrier. “There’s no way to get away from it.” Carriers said employees could take time off through paid vacation, income replacement for sick workers or removal of themselves from the list of available workers.“Railroads provide multiple ways for employees to take time to care for themselves and their families,” the Association of American Railroads, an industry group, said in a statement earlier this week.By Sunday, leaders of 10 of the 12 unions in the talks had agreed to contract terms. But two unions representing conductors and engineers — about half the 115,000 freight rail workers involved in the dispute — held out for a concession on scheduling, like the ability to see a doctor or attend to a personal matter without risking disciplinary action.President Biden in the Oval Office on Thursday with representatives of the railroads and the unions as well as Labor Department officials.Doug Mills/The New York Times“It would not harm their operations to treat employees like humans and let them take care of medical issues,” Dennis Pierce, president of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, one of the two unions, said in an interview on Monday. “It’s the primary outstanding issue, one we won’t budge on — the request that they stop firing people who get sick.”After the tentative deal was announced, the two unions said it included “contract language exempting time off for certain medical events from carrier attendance policies.” The agreement will require ratification by union members, a process that could take a few weeks.In some respects, the freight rail industry is similar to other swaths of the economy, such as retail and food service, where employers have imposed increasingly lean staffing in recent decades.Rick Paterson, a longtime industry analyst with the investment bank Loop Capital, said the staffing trend for railroads became more pronounced in the early 2000s when, after years of consolidation, carriers and their investors began to recognize that they had pricing power.As a result, the dominant business model in the industry shifted from one in which the carriers sought larger volumes of traffic to one in which they sought to increase profits by raising prices and lowering expenses like labor costs.“They realized that if growing pricing is good for margins, then keeping costs low is even better,” said Mr. Paterson, who has referred to this thinking as “the cult of the operating ratio,” after the ratio of operating expenses to revenue.A freight train yard near the Port of Los Angeles on Thursday. A strike by freight rail workers would have been economically damaging.Alex Welsh for The New York TimesThe side effect, however, was to gradually eliminate any cushion in staffing levels.Unlike many workers, the conductors and engineers who operate trains don’t get weekends or other consistent days off.Instead, said Mr. Pierce, the president of the locomotive engineers union, workers go to the bottom of a list of available crews when they return home from a trip that can last days. The fewer the workers, the shorter the list, and the less time it takes for them to be summoned into action again.“It can go on indefinitely, till they interrupt the cycle by taking paid time off, which the companies routinely reject,” Mr. Pierce said.Major U.S. freight rail carriers began to accelerate the staffing cuts in recent years as they switched to a system known as precision scheduled railroading, or P.S.R., which focuses on scaling back excess equipment and employees and streamlining the shipping process. The industry has said P.S.R. enables carriers to run more efficiently and provide more reliable service, while also improving profits. Freight rail customers and employees say it has resulted in deteriorating working conditions and customer service and little resilience in dealing with unforeseen circumstances, like weather emergencies. The Surface Transportation Board, a federal regulatory agency, estimates that the carriers have 30 percent fewer employees today than six years ago.Reducing labor to match this operating model may have been sound in principle, said Mr. Paterson, the industry analyst. But he said the carriers appeared to have cut back too much to allow them to handle potential disruptions, of which the pandemic was an epic example.“When you do P.S.R., you can drop your head count by 30 percent, but why don’t you drop it 28 percent and build in a crew reserve?” he asked. “That didn’t happen.”With little margin for error, carriers found themselves with too few workers to operate their rail networks once business began to recover in the second half of 2020, putting more and more stress on their workers, and making it even harder for them to take time off.Freight rail workers on train tracks in Atlanta on Thursday.Dustin Chambers for The New York TimesWhen Mr. Christenson, the longtime conductor, who is also a co-chair of the industrywide group Railroad Workers United, began feeling run-down last year, he was reluctant to see a doctor. Under his company’s attendance policy, taking an unplanned day off could lead to disciplinary action, and “I worried about triggering an investigation,” he said.So he waited until he could get an appointment on a scheduled day off a few months later, at which point he got bad news: He had an infection that might have been easily resolved with medication but now required surgery.“They had to cut infected tissue out in my leg,” Mr. Christenson said.Railroad workers and their families, many of whom asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals, said similar attendance policies, which are partly intended to manage the industry’s labor shortfall, had resulted in workers’ missing important life events.This year, for example, BNSF Railway introduced a new point system for some employees, according to a February memo obtained by The New York Times. Under the policy, workers were awarded 30 points to start with and would lose points — from two to 10 — for scheduling a day off for a variety of reasons, including a family emergency, sickness or fatigue. They lose even more points for being unavailable at the last minute.When workers run out of points, they face escalating penalties, starting with a 10-day suspension, followed by a 20-day suspension and ending with possible firing. Workers can earn back points by being available for two weeks straight. BNSF said on Thursday that the policy was “designed to improve the consistency of crews being available for their shifts” and to give employees more “predictability and transparency” regarding their schedules. It said that the program was achieving those goals but that revisions had been made to give employees more flexibility. One railroad worker said the fast turnaround time between shifts had forced him to skip doctor’s appointments to address his symptoms of long Covid. Railroad workers’ family members said they rarely celebrated birthdays or holidays together even before the pandemic.Workers say that while they have paid vacation and days allotted for personal leave, the constraints that employers impose — like requiring vacation to be taken in limited windows that are far oversubscribed, or simply rejecting a proposed personal day — severely limit their options as a practical matter.Shippers have grown frustrated, too.Rail cars full of grain sat at production facilities in the Midwest for weeks at a time earlier this year, far longer than typical, said Max Fisher, the chief economist and treasurer for the National Grain and Feed Association.Chemical manufacturers, which rely on freight rail to move their products, have grown increasingly frustrated with the carriers since December, according to three surveys by the American Chemistry Council, an industry association. The latest, conducted in July, found that 46 percent of the companies felt that rail service was getting worse, while only 7 percent said it was improving.“Freight rail has been a constant thorn in our side and been a significant challenge for our members for quite some time,” said Chris Jahn, the organization’s chief executive.While the labor agreement announced on Thursday may avert a strike, it is unlikely to resolve the deeper issues that have put unions and rail carriers on a collision course. Even if carriers wanted to turn back the clock on efforts to increase efficiency, they would have shareholders to answer to.After Bill Ackman, the activist investor, won a proxy battle over the freight carrier Canadian Pacific a decade ago, the company hired Hunter Harrison, who pioneered P.S.R., as its chief executive. Mr. Harrison imposed the system there and then at CSX after joining that company in 2017, prompting investors to pressure other carriers to follow suit to eke out similar efficiencies.“Lurking in the background is the constant threat of shareholder activism if any of the railroads’ operating ratios become outliers on the high side,” Mr. Paterson said in testimony to the Surface Transportation Board this spring. More