Economy

Inflation affects us all, but the rate at which we experience it will depend on our unique spending habits. Use the calculator below to estimate your personal inflation rate.

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Why estimate your personal inflation rate?For the past 30 years, inflation has been relatively stable across advanced economies, including the UK and US. In others it has even been deflationary, such as in Japan. This has been turned on its head in 2022, with the shockwaves of a global pandemic, supply-chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine all contributing to a rapid rise in the costs of fuel, food and a broad range of goods. So much so, that major national economies have reached their first double-digit inflation rates since the 1980s.These inflation rates — most often measured by the consumer price index, or CPI — are calculated based on a total “basket” of goods and services bought by all consumers in a national economy. They do not, however, necessarily represent the impact that inflation has on you. For example, the latest UK national basket assumes that 9.8 per cent of household budgets are spent on personal transport, such as owning and using a car. While this may be representative of the UK as a whole, it may not be at all representative for you as individual if, for example, you don’t own a car, or the amount you use it greatly differs from the national average.

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This is where a personal inflation calculator can be useful. By taking data on national price changes, it allows you to estimate your experience of inflation, according to the constraints, priorities and preferences that shape your personal spending patterns.Sources and methodologyData and analysis by Ella Hollowood, Oliver Hawkins, Kentaro Takeda and Aiko Munakata.Development, design and graphics by Bob Haslett and Ændra Rininsland. More

Consumers and investors have been worried that China’s return to sweeping Covid-19 lockdowns could hit the production of Apple’s iPhones and Elon Musk’s Teslas. But in a corner of south-west China, desperation has risen over a very different question: how to feed endangered tigers.The Guizhou Wildlife Park this week issued an urgent plea for live chickens and fish, as well as steamed buns and frozen crabs, over concerns that the animals could starve as lockdowns choke supply chains. The park is home to endangered Siberian, white Bengal and South China tigers, as well as pandas, crocodiles and zebras.“Almost 70 per cent of the animals kept in the park are protected species, but at present, the park’s feed stockpiles are far from enough,” the park’s owner said in a letter sent to local authorities.The difficulty feeding the animals is the latest sign of the challenges caused by the strict implementation of President Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy. It also comes ahead of a critical Chinese Communist party meeting at which Xi is set to secure an unprecedented third term in power.About 50 Chinese cities that are home to roughly 290mn people, more than a fifth of the population, are under partial or full lockdowns or restrictions, according to Nomura. This number could grow in the coming days as health officials ratchet up testing during a national holiday.In the province of Guizhou, several cities are under pandemic restrictions, affecting a combined population of nearly 10mn.The wildlife park, which is located 50km north of Guiyang, said its call for help — which also included a request for stocks of sweet potato, peppers and frozen shrimp tails — was swiftly handled by local authorities. Within 24 hours, several ecommerce groups, including Alibaba’s Hema Fresh, JD.com and Walmart, had offered future deliveries.The park said it must keep at least 10 days of live food for some animals, as it was uncertain how long the lockdowns would last.The shortages reflected deepening worries about food security and supply chain breakdowns returning across China as Covid restrictions were expanded. Panic buying, including in the megacity of Chengdu, which went into lockdown last week, was a stark reminder of the chaos that hit Shanghai, China’s biggest and most affluent city, in April.

“Over the past week, the overall Covid situation deteriorated considerably in China,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist.“What is becoming increasingly concerning is that Covid hotspots are continuing to shift away from several remote regions and cities — with seemingly less economic significance to the country — to provinces that matter much more to China’s national economy,” he added.In the Yunyan district of Guiyang, officials cautioned residents after a pack of macaques started roaming the city’s streets looking for food, following the temporary closure of nearby monkey parks this week. More

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar took a breather from its surging rally on Friday as markets digested yet more hawkish Fed speak, while the euro hung on to parity, helped by an outsized rate hike from the European Central Bank.Currency moves overnight were calmer for once even as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s aggressive stance against inflation, which reinforced the greenback’s dominance.The euro was up 0.52% at $1.0050, inching away from its two-decade trough of $0.9864 hit earlier in the week as speculators took profits on crowded short positions.The ECB on Thursday raised its key interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points and promised further hikes to come in its fight against inflation, even as the bloc is likely heading towards a winter recession and gas rationing.The single currency is on track for a 0.9% weekly gain, snapping three straight weeks of decline, but has nonetheless fallen more than 10% this year.Meanwhile, sterling was last up 0.43% to $1.1547, reversing its losses from the previous session.The pound fell overnight after news that Queen Elizabeth, Britain’s longest-reigning monarch and the nation’s figurehead for seven decades, died peacefully on Thursday at the age of 96.The U.S. dollar index was down 0.25% to 109.25, just off a 20-year top of 110.79.”Effectively, the ECB and Powell kind of cancel each other out, so there was sort of volatility, but at the end, not much happened in that sense,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).”I think the market now is starting to look towards next week, U.S. CPI, and I think to some extent, that will set the tone in terms of what to expect from the Fed.”Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was last down 0.29% to 143.69, but is up nearly 3% on the week, the largest weekly gain since June.The yen fell to a 24-year low this week as the policy divergence between the Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish stance and the rest of the world, particularly the Fed, proved too stark to be ignored.Japan’s top currency diplomat said on Thursday that the country is ready to take action in the market and will not rule out any options to address “clearly excessive volatility” seen in the yen.Officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Financial Services Agency (FSA) met the same day to discuss the slide.”The arguments from the BoJ that a lower currency is net beneficial for the economy starts to ring hollow when the cost of living is still rising, given those energy prices that have been exacerbated by a much weaker yen,” said NAB’s Catril.The Australian and New Zealand dollars also made early gains in Asia trade, recovering from dips overnight.The Aussie was up 0.55% to $0.6788, while the kiwi was up 0.47% to $0.6084, though the two antipodean currencies were on track for another weekly loss. More

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexican economic growth is expected to hit 3% in 2023, up from 2.4% this year, amid cooling inflation, the federal government’s budget document showed on Thursday, above the Bank of Mexico’s growth forecast of 1.6% for the coming year.The budget forecast tax revenues of 4.6 trillion pesos ($231 billion) in 2023, and tight public spending, aiming to bring public debt to 49.4% of gross domestic product in 2023.Mexico’s finance minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O told Congress shortly before the document was published that the government is aiming for public debt to “remain on a stable and sustainable path.”That includes limiting the total foreign debt ceiling to $5.5 billion.Mexico’s oil prices, meanwhile, were seen averaging $68.70 per barrel in 2023 after hitting $93.60 this yearOil output was expected to advance to an average of 1.872 million barrels per day (bpd) from some 1.835 million bpd in 2022, the figures showed. Oil exports, however, were forecast to fall to an average of 784,000 bpd of oil in 2023, down from some 950,000 bpd this year, as the government seeks to refine more of its crude domestically to make the country more self-sufficient.Mexico’s peso currency was seen averaging 20.6 per dollar next year.The budget forecast annual inflation would ease to 3.2% by the end of 2023, while the Bank of Mexico has predicted consumer prices will slow to around its 3% target in the first quarter of 2024.The government also expects annual headline inflation to cool to 7.7% by December of this year, from more than 8.7% in the 12 months through August.President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday the budget would not contain any tax increases. The figures in the official budget were in line with a draft document seen by Reuters Wednesday.($1 = 19.9434 Mexican pesos) More

Total like-for-like retail sales increased by 3.6% in August compared with the same month last year and online sales fell by 0.6%, their first decline since March. “September’s results will show just how significant the pull-back in discretionary spending is likely to be this winter but clearly these results in August show that consumers are cutting their budgets,” BDO Head of Retail Sophie Michael said.”Consumers are deferring the purchase of big ticket items as households prioritise essential spend,” Michael said. Slower sales growth for fashion and lifestyle items raised concerns ahead of the autumn and Christmas periods, she said.However, economists say Britain’s high inflation rate – which hit 10.1% in July – now looks likely to slow after new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a plan on Thursday to cap surging household energy prices. More

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentine soy farmers who hold onto stock of more than 5% of their production will face an elevated financing cost above the normal benchmark rate, the South American country’s central bank said on Thursday, part of a wider push to encourage sales.The central bank said soy farmers over a certain size who hoarded their stock would face a minimum financing rate “equivalent to 120% of the latest Monetary Policy rate.”Argentina’s benchmark interest rate stands at 69.5%.Thursday’s announcement aims “to make credit more expensive so that it is more convenient to sell (soybeans) than to take credit,” a source familiar with the matter explained.The source added that now “the rate of any line of credit is going to be more expensive” for soybean producers, whose minimum rate would start at 83.4% under the new policy, the source said.The move comes as part of an effort by authorities to replenish dwindling foreign currency reserves by pressuring soybean farmers to export more.On Sunday, Economy Minister Sergio Massa set a preferential exchange rate for soybean producers, sending soybean exports surging earlier this week. Argentina is the world’s top exporter of processed soy oil and soymeal and the No. 3 for raw soybeans, but farmers have been holding onto stock as a hedge against inflation and potential devaluation of the local peso currency. More

DEARBORN, Mich. — Emerging from months of inflation and recession fears, the Biden administration is pivoting to recast its stewardship of the U.S. economy as a singular achievement. In their pitch to voters, two months before midterm elections determine whether Democrats will maintain full control of Washington, Biden officials are pointing to a postpandemic resurgence of factories and “forgotten” cities.The case was reinforced on Thursday by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, who laid out the trajectory of President Biden’s economic agenda on the floor of Ford Motor’s electric vehicle factory in Dearborn. Mich. Surrounded by F-150 Lightning trucks, Ms. Yellen described an economy where new infrastructure investments would soon make it easier to produce and move goods around the country, bringing prosperity to places that have been left behind.“We know that a disproportionate share of economic opportunity has been concentrated in major coastal cities,” Ms. Yellen said in a speech. “Investments from the Biden economic plan have already begun shifting this dynamic.”Her comments addressed a U.S. economy that is at a crossroads. Some metrics suggest that a run of the highest inflation in four decades has peaked, but recession fears still loom as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to contain rising prices. The price of gasoline has been easing in recent weeks, but a European Union embargo on Russian oil that is expected to take effect in December could send prices soaring again, rattling the global economy. Lockdowns in China in response to virus outbreaks continue to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy.In her speech on Thursday, Ms. Yellen said the legislation that Mr. Biden signed this year to promote infrastructure investment, expand the domestic semiconductor industry and support the transition to electric vehicles represented what she called “modern supply-side economics.” Rather than relying on tax cuts and deregulation to spur economic growth, as Republicans espouse, Ms. Yellen contends that investments that make it easier to produce products in the United States will lead to a more broad-based and stable economic expansion. She argued that an expansion of clean energy initiatives was also a matter of national security.“It will put us well on our way toward a future where we depend on the wind, sun and other clean sources for our energy,” Ms. Yellen said as Ford’s electric pickup trucks were assembled around her. “We will rid ourselves from our current dependence on fossil fuels and the whims of autocrats like Putin,” she said, referring to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.The remarks were the first of several that top Biden administration officials and the president himself are planning to make this month as midterm election campaigns around the country enter their final stretch. After months of being on the defensive in the face of criticism from Republicans who say Democrats fueled inflation by overstimulating the economy, the Biden administration is fully embracing the fruits of initiatives such as the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan of 2021, which disbursed $350 billion to states and cities.At the factory, Ms. Yellen met with some of Ford’s top engineers and executives. During her trip to Michigan, she also made stops in Detroit at an East African restaurant, an apparel manufacturer and a coffee shop that received federal stimulus funds. She dined with Detroit’s mayor, Mike Duggan, and Michigan’s lieutenant governor, Garlin Gilchrist.Detroit was awarded $827 million through the relief package and has been spending the money on projects to clean up blighted neighborhoods, expand broadband access and upgrade parks and recreation venues.Although Ms. Yellen is helping to lead what Treasury officials described as a victory lap, some of her top priorities have yet to be addressed..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.The so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which Congress passed last month, did not contain provisions to put the United States in compliance with the global tax agreement that Ms. Yellen brokered last year, which aimed to eliminate corporate tax havens, leaving the deal in limbo. On Thursday, she said she would continue to “advocate for additional reforms of our tax code and the global tax system.”Despite Ms. Yellen’s belief that some of the tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on Chinese imports were not strategic and should be removed, Mr. Biden has yet to roll them back. In her speech, Ms. Yellen accused China of unfairly using its market advantages as leverage against other countries but said maintaining “mutually beneficial trade” was important.Ms. Yellen also made no mention in her speech of Mr. Biden’s recent decision to cancel student loan debt for millions of Americans. She believed the policy, which budget analysts estimate could cost the federal government $300 billion, could fuel inflation.Treasury Department officials said Detroit, the center of the American automobile industry, exemplified how many elements of the Biden administration’s economic agenda are coming together to benefit a place that epitomized the economic carnage of the 2008 financial crisis. Legislation that Democrats passed this year is meant to create new incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles, improve access to microchips that are critical for car manufacturing and smooth out supply chains that have been disrupted during the pandemic.“There will be greater certainty in our increasingly technology-dependent economy,” Ms. Yellen said.But the transition to a postpandemic economy has had its share of turbulence.Ford said last month that it was cutting 3,000 jobs as part of an effort to reduce costs and become more competitive amid the industry’s evolution to electric vehicles. The company also cut nearly 300 workers in April.“People in Michigan can be pretty nervous about the transition to electric vehicles because they actually require by some estimation a lot less labor to assemble because there are fewer parts,” said Gabriel Ehrlich, an economist at the University of Michigan. “There are questions about what does that mean for these jobs.”Republicans in Congress continue to assail the Biden administration’s management of the economy.“Inflation continues to sit at a 40-year high, eating away at paychecks and sending costs through the roof,” Representative Tim Walberg, a Michigan Republican, said on Twitter on Thursday. “While in Michigan today, Secretary Yellen should apologize for being so wrong about the inflation-fueling impact of the Biden administration’s runaway spending.”Ms. Yellen will be followed to Michigan next week by Mr. Biden, who will attend Detroit’s annual auto show.The business community in Detroit, noting the magnetism of Michigan’s swing-state status, welcomed the attention.“We’re about as purple as it gets right now,” Sandy K. Baruah, the chief executive of the Detroit Regional Chamber, a business group.Noting the importance of the automobile industry to America’s economy, Mr. Baruah added: “When you think about blue-collar jobs and the transitioning nature of blue-collar jobs, especially in the manufacturing space, Michigan has the perfect optics.” More

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s government and financial institutions will propose a bill this month to change current rules, aiming to attract companies to the country’s stock exchange by making it easier to access debt and equities markets, the head of the country’s stock market association told Reuters.Mexico’s main BMV stock exchange is seeking to lure IPOs. Recently, several prominent companies decided to de-list their shares from the exchange. These include brokerage Monex, airline Aeromexico and Carlos Slim’s retailer Sanborns.The executive president of the Mexican Association of Stock Market Institutions (AMIB), Alvaro Garcia Pimentel, told Reuters the institution is working to propose a bill that would allow smaller companies to list debts and equities more quickly and at lower cost. “We built this project so smaller companies could issue debt and receive the same fiscal treatment as public offers for debts and equities,” he said, saying rates would be more competitive and financing longer-term.He said the proposal, put together with the government and the BMV and BIVA stock exchanges, should be presented to Congress this month. Mexico’s Finance ministry said it is “working closely with the BMV to strengthen (the country’s) financial market.”BMV and BIVA did not immediately respond to a request for comment, though the CEO of BIVA spoke of the planned reform at a conference last week.Garcia told Reuters the groups would likely create another proposal, this time focusing on hedge funds.”This would create a new law allowing funds to participate through hedging operations, derivatives and direct leverage,” he said, saying AMIB was in talks with the government.Luis Gonzali, an institutional asset manager, said if the bill passes it would not only attract new companies but make Mexico’s financial market more “dynamic.””The measure would to a certain extent mitigate what we have seen for many years: a trend of de-listing and few companies participating in Mexico’s financial sector,” he added. More