Economy

Globally, passenger traffic in July was at about 75% of pre-pandemic levels, helped by strong demand for domestic services where traffic had recovered 86.9% of the level seen in July 2019, the body said.International traffic, however, had recovered 67.9% of the pre-pandemic levels in July, lagging behind domestic demand.International Air Transport Association (IATA) Director General Willie Walsh, on a call with reporters, described it as a “solid recovery”, helped by demand in the northern hemisphere over the summer and increased domestic activity in China.However, Walsh warned that high jet fuel prices would continue to put pressure on airlines’ cost base for the rest of the year, which he described as a challenge for carriers.”I am aware of some airlines that have embarked on hedging in recent months … just to provide themselves with some protection against the volatility that we’re witnessing,” he said. More

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s surging inflation could slow if new Prime Minister Liz Truss helps households and businesses cope with rocketing energy costs, but it is too soon to say what that will mean for interest rates, the BoE’s chief economist said.The central bank has sped up its pace of increases in borrowing costs in a bid to limit the damage to the world’s fifth-biggest economy from a leap in inflation above 10%, even though it expects a recession to start later this year. The BoE forecast in August that inflation would exceed 13%, and some economists have said it could top 20% if gas prices – pushed up by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – stay high.However, the picture will change if Truss goes ahead with reported plans to cap energy household energy bills and offer support to businesses, BoE chief economist Huw Pill told lawmakers on Wednesday.While the subsidies for households could add to demand and create more inflation pressure, “net-net on the implications for headline inflation in the short term, I would expect that to see a decline,” Pill said.Truss moved into Downing Street on Tuesday, promising to help Britain through its gas price shock. She is due to announce details of her plans on Thursday.Pill said the implications for monetary policy remained unclear, but added that the BoE would ensure government spending did not generate inflation.Economists have said an energy price cap could mean inflation has peaked, though longer-term it might add to price pressures if there is a levy on future bills to compensate energy giants for their losses.BOND MARKET TURMOILBoE Governor Andrew Bailey, also speaking to parliament’s Treasury Committee, said Truss’s impending announcement would provide useful clarity to markets.British government bond prices have slumped on worries about the scale of borrowing needed to fund Truss’ cost-of-living support plans and the tax cuts she has promised, pushing 10-year British government bond yields to their highest since 2011. “It’s important that there is a clear way forward on policy … That will be important for markets to understand what is going to happen.” Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) said on Wednesday that the energy price support and tax cuts planned by Truss could cost 179 billion pounds ($205 billion), about half Britain’s historic pandemic spending push.New finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng told bankers and investors that borrowing would rise in the short term but he would ensure fiscal discipline in the medium term.Bailey said the comments by BoE officials on Wednesday should not be read as a signal about what the central bank would do on interest rates next week. Investors scaled back their bets on an outsize 75-basis-point increase on Sept. 15 to around 56%.Investors are pricing in the BoE raising rates to at least 4.25% by the middle of 2023, up from 1.75% now, although most economists have said they think it will peak at a lower level, given the likelihood of a recession starting later this year.The last time the central bank raised rates by at least 75 basis points was in 1989, excluding an attempt to shore up the pound in 1992 which was reversed in less than a day.Bailey rejected a suggestion that over-aggressive rate rises by the BoE were adding to the headwinds facing Britain.”The person who is going to put this economy into recession is Vladimir Putin not the MPC,” he said.Bailey was asked about another promise made by Truss: a review of the mandate of the BoE, which is tasked with aiming for 2% inflation.He said moving to a money supply target would not be sensible and a nominal gross domestic product target would not be an obvious improvement.($1 = 0.8750 pounds) More

Prime Minister Liz Truss said she would set out her plan Thursday to help UK households and business facing soaring energy bills, as she ruled out funding the support package with a windfall tax on companies.In her first Prime Minister’s Questions session in Parliament since formally taking office on Tuesday, Truss underlined her smaller-state, tax-cutting ambitions and warned that Britain could not “tax our way to growth.”But she faced criticism from Keir Starmer, leader of the opposition Labour party, who warned she had made a “political choice” in allowing energy firms to make excess profits while working people would “foot the bill for decades.”Truss vowed to keep corporation tax low in order to attract more businesses to invest in the UK, and said she wanted to ensure the UK used more of its own energy supplies including oil and gas from the North Sea.#PMQsTruss responds: “I believe it is the wrong thing to be putting companies off investing in the UK” — Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) September 7, 2022Her government is planning on capping average annual household energy bills at or below the current level of £1,971, Bloomberg reported Monday. The move would prevent household bills from jumping 80% in October, after regulator Ofgem said the price cap would rise to an average annual rate of £3,548.Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng are also finalizing plans for a £40 billion package to lower energy bills for businesses.©2022 Bloomberg L.P. More

“The goal is to achieve sustained construction on all suspended property projects in Zhengzhou by Oct. 6,” said a government notice dated Tuesday.Real estate firms must pledge valid assets to local government-backed financing companies if they want to get the special loans, one source cited the notice as saying.Homebuyers in at least 80 cities have threatened to halt making mortgage payments since late June as developers stopped building projects due to strapped liquidity or strict COVID-19 restrictions.The mortgage boycott has added to worries about a prolonged slump in China’s property market, which has lurched from crisis to crisis since the summer of 2020 after regulators stepped in to cut excess leverage.Some developers are encouraged to apply to the court for bankruptcy to ensure that the disposal of insolvent property developments is completed as soon as possible, one source cited the notice as saying.”It’s good, but the move will save housing projects, not the developers.”Real estate firms should do everything possible to ensure project delivery, by raising funds through disposal of undeveloped lands, assets and equities, and returning misappropriated funds, according to the notice.Zhengzhou government didn’t immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comments.Local governments, including the central province of Hubei, have taken steps to prop up the property market by setting up local bailout funds.Zhengzhou was one of the first cities to do so, setting up a bailout fund worth 10 billion yuan ($1.43 billion) in July. The city government has proposed ways to several big developers to resolve the unfinished-home issue, including through loans, mergers and acquisitions, as well as turning the projects into subsidised rental housing, local media have reported.($1 = 6.9747 Chinese yuan renminbi) More

Putin’s expectation of a GDP decline of around 2% is more optimistic than his economy ministry and Russia’s two largest banks, but follows the trend of improving forecasts as the effect of sanctions imposed against Moscow over Russia’s actions in Ukraine is analysed. “Our state finances have stabilised. I would like to note that this year’s budget will be executed with a surplus of almost half a trillion roubles, somewhere around 485 billion roubles ($7.93 billion), Putin said at Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.Putin said budget spending was up 20% on last year’s levels, something that he said was bound to have an impact on the economy. “Our experts believe that the peak of the most difficult situation in our country has passed,” Putin said. “The government was able to prevent a negative turn of events thanks to effective, dynamic and calibrated measures.”Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on Tuesday the economic contraction this year would be 2.9%, shallower than previously forecast. Top lenders Sberbank and VTB envisage a 4.5% and 4% contraction, respectively. Meltdown may have been averted – the economy ministry at one point predicted that the economy would shrink more than 12% this year, exceeding the falls in output seen after the Soviet Union collapsed and during the 1998 financial crisis – but economic hardships remain for many. Consumer prices have risen sharply this year and a survey by state polling agency VTsIOM showed that 64% of people in Russia had no savings as of mid-February. Putin, despite asserting that Russia was coping with what he termed “the West’s economic, financial and technological aggression,” acknowledged challenges. “Of course we see problems in several industries and regions, in some businesses in the country, especially those who were dependent on supplies from Europe or supplied their products there,” Putin said. ($1 = 61.1500 roubles) More

“Net-net on the implications for headline inflation in the short term, I would expect that to see a decline,” Pill told lawmakers.Pill said the implications for monetary policy however were unclear. More

Investing.com — The yen slumped to a new 24-year low against the dollar as China’s trade figures cast doubt over the economic outlook for Asia. The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book survey while the Bank of England girds to fight for its independence from new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss. Apple unveils its new 5G-enabled iPhone and Vladimir Putin rails against the U.S. Here’s what you need to know in financial markets on Wednesday, September 7.1.  The incredible shrinking yenThe slump in the Japanese yen deepened after Tokyo warned about “rapid, one-sided” currency moves – without doing anything to stop them.The dollar rose to a new 24-year high of 144.38 after China’s monthly trade data showed a sharp slowdown in both import and export growth, suggesting that the slowdown in global demand for goods made in China is feeding through into Chinese demand for Japan’s capital goods. The dollar is now up more than 31% against the yen over the last 12 months, and the pace of this week’s slide has sparked talk of intervention by the Bank of Japan, possibly in concert with other central banks. However, Reuters cited former Japanese currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe as saying Japan should not intervene or change monetary policy in response as they would be ineffective in stopping the dollar’s advance.2. Central banks on alert againIt’s a big day for central banks around the world again, with both the Bank of Canada and the National Bank of Poland expected to raise interest rates again. Poland’s rate hike cycle appears to be nearing its end, with the NBP expected to hike by only 25 basis points this time after a series of bigger ones in recent months.However, analysts expect a jumbo hike of 75 basis points from the Bank of Canada, in what would be an echo of the latest Federal Reserve step and – possibly – a foretaste of tomorrow’s action at the European Central Bank. The Fed itself releases its Beige Book survey, while the MBA releases weekly figures on mortgage applications and rates. There’ll be speeches early from the Fed’s Loretta Mester and Tom Barkin (only Mester has a vote on the FOMC this year), and later, from vice-chair Lael Brainard. In the U.K. meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to meet with the new Treasury chief Kwasi Kwarteng to discuss, among other things, the BoE’s plans to start selling Gilts back into the market – just as the new government of Prime Minister Liz Truss seems set to embark on a big increase in government borrowing to fund her energy package.3. Stocks set to open higherU.S. stock markets are set to open with a modest bounce after falling to fresh two-month lows on Tuesday on concerns about the global economic slowdown and its impact on earnings. By 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 50 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were up in line. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is likely to dominate the session, with its unveiling of the new iPhone 14, despite expectations of only modest incremental changes to its design and capabilities. Overnight, Spanish oil and gas company Repsol (BME:REP) said it will sell 25% of its upstream business to energy and infrastructure experts EIG, with an eye to listing the business in New York in four years or so.4. Europe eyes power price capsThe European Commission is set to propose capping the wholesale price of electricity for most types of generation in an effort to stave off a collapse of European industry over the winter. The Financial Times reported that the Commission will propose capping the price of power generated by sources other than gas at 200 euros a megawatt-hour when EU energy ministers meet on Friday. The current spot price for German power electricity in Germany, the regional benchmark, is above 450 euros/MWh, while French prices hit 1,000 euros last week.Wholesale electricity prices have skyrocketed because gas is usually the power source for marginal power production, which dictates wholesale prices. Gas prices are roughly 10 times the prevailing level of the past 10 years. 5. Oil prices tick upward as Putin railsCrude oil prices continued to trade near seven-month lows as China’s latest trade data did nothing to reassure about the global demand picture.Fiery warnings from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that he would withhold all forms of Russian energy from “unfriendly” countries were only able to push prices up by around half a percent, leaving U.S. crude futures at $87.42 a barrel and Brent at $93.44 a barrel.”We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests, in this case economic [interests],” Putin told a conference in Russia’s Far East. “No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing.”The American Petroleum Institute will update on U.S. supply-demand balance at 16:30 ET, a day later than usual due to the Labor Day holiday, which typically signals the end of peak summer demand in the U.S.  More

Chinese shipments to Russia, which has been hit by Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, rose 26.5% from a year earlier in dollar terms, up from a 22.2% gain in July, Reuters calculations based on Chinese customs data on Wednesday showed.Imports from Russia jumped 59.3% versus a 49.3% increase in July.Russia is a major source of oil, gas, coal and agricultural products for China.Russia was China’s top oil supplier for a third month in July, data from Chinese customs showed on Aug. 20. The agency has not published the ranking for August yet.Russian President Vladimir Putin said at an economic forum in Vladivostok on Wednesday that Chinese demand for Russian energy was rising.Russia’s Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) said on Tuesday it had signed an agreement to start switching payments for gas supplies to China to yuan and roubles instead of dollars.Chinese legislator Li Zhanshu, ranked No.3 in the Communist Party, will attend the Vladivostok forum, the most senior Chinese official to visit Russia since the Ukraine war began and underlining the close ties between the countries.In the first eight months of this year, bilateral trade between China and Russia jumped 31.4% to $117.2 billion. More