Economy

Investors were settling into the belief that inflation would subside next year with the threat of an economic slump sufficient to do the job of curbing prices. With a sigh of relief, they came to hope that all this would happen in good time to avoid much higher interest rates and a long and deep downturn.They even invented the pivot, the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks would early next year be cutting rates to stave off recession.But Jay Powell, the Fed chair, used his speech at the Jackson Hole central bankers conference to seek to bury that idea. He spoke briefly, but fiercely. He made clear that the Fed has only one aim, the reduction of inflation. Rates will go higher and stay higher to bring this about. It may well cause some economic damage, but to the Fed that is a necessary price to prevent inflation embedding in the conduct of employers, employees and consumers. This tough talking duly wiped the smile off equity market investors as they realised this meant stalling turnover and falling profit margins.Bond market investors were seemingly less intimidated, implying by their moves that they still feel inflation will come down next year and further substantial hikes in US interest rates on longer-term government debt would not be needed.The US is in a stronger position than most of the rest of the democratic world because it is self-sufficient in gas and produces much of the oil and other energy it needs.President Joe Biden’s fight against inflation has centred around the motor fuel price, where it has already come well down as crude oil prices have fallen. He has been less concerned about signs that some wage rises are reaching new high levels, as he sympathises with organised labour at a time of a cost of living squeeze. In Europe the choices are altogether starker. Inflation is still going up due mainly to the giddy climb in the cost of energy. Meanwhile, the economic slowdown is already pronounced, notably in Germany and Italy, as consumers feel the impact of gas and electricity prices.

It is true that Putin’s removal of a substantial portion of Europe’s gas supply under the pretext of needing to maintain pipelines or to punish countries for refusing Russia’s trading terms has added considerably to the economic strains.It is also true that Europe was going to have energy troubles anyway this coming winter, as its policy of a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables started to reduce energy availability. Europe is stuck with high and rising energy prices taking an increasing share of incomes, leaving the prospect of reduced demand, squeezed profits and lower employment from non-energy purchases. It also drives up the costs of most products and services as they need energy.Europe’s energy issues will take time to resolve. The dreadful war in Ukraine grinds on with no early prospect of a peace. Russia’s reputation as a reliable trading partner is long damaged, so the need to diversify away from Russian gas remains.Europe faces more than one winter having to accept a hit to living standards from expensive energy, a need to restrain energy usage, and stagflation as a result. As China suffers from a hot summer, from drought and its tough anti-Covid policy, the world economy looks to the US for leadership.The markets may still get their pivot some time next year, but before they do we need to see if the Fed will be satisfied with its work on inflation.I am awaiting better opportunities to spend the cash. The time is approaching when a better return will be offered on longer dated bonds. When markets and the Fed think inflation is under control these will then look attractive. The US bonds offer the best potential given where their rates are already and the stronger position the US enjoys over energy. We need to see more of the economic slowdown before additional shares are a must have for the portfolio.Sir John Redwood is chief global strategist for Charles Stanley. The FT Fund is a dummy portfolio intended to demonstrate how investors can use a wide range of ETFs to gain exposure to global stock markets while keeping down the costs of investing. [email protected]

The Redwood fund — Sept 6 2022NameWeightCash23.99%IShares Core EM IMI ACC1.92%IShares Core MSCI WLD GBPH D20.48%IShares Global Clean Energy2.33%IIShares USD Short Dur USD D11.75%IShares USD Tips 0-5 GBP-H D5.62%L&G All St In Lnk Gilt IN-IA3.47%L&G Cyber Security UCITS ETF2.05%L&G Hydrogen Economy ETF1.79%L&G Robo Global Robotics & Aut1.88%Lyxor Core MSCI Japan DR-MHG2.89%Lyxor Core UK Government Inf4.51%SPDR 0-5 EM USD Government2.18%Vang FTSE 250 GBPD4.02%X MSCI Korea1.47%X MSCI Taiwan4.08%X S&P500 GBP5.58%Source: Charles Stanley More

A senior Federal Reserve official has said the US central bank must lift interest rates to a level that restrains economic activity and keep them there until policymakers are “convinced” that rampant inflation is subsiding.In an interview with the Financial Times, Thomas Barkin, president of the Fed’s Richmond branch, said the central bank had already shifted its monetary policy towards much tighter settings to rein in the worse price pressures in roughly four decades.However, he said that in order to restore price stability, the Fed would need to tighten policy further so that so-called real interest rates, which are adjusted for inflation, sit above zero.“You do have to move to a level where inflation expectations come down in order to have enough restriction on the economy to bring inflation down,” Barkin said on Tuesday. “The destination is real rates in positive territory and my intent would be to maintain them there until such time as we really are convinced that we put inflation to bed.”Several of Barkin’s colleagues, including John Williams of New York, have recently indicated that the federal funds rate will probably need to rise above 3.5 per cent and remain there in 2023. That is well above its current target range of 2.25 per cent to 2.50 per cent. Cleveland’s Loretta Mester, meanwhile, backed rates rising above 4 per cent by early next year. Those levels “would not surprise me at all”, said Barkin, who noted he favoured using near-term inflation expectations to calculate what constitutes a positive “real” interest rate.In terms of how fast the Fed should move to reach such a threshold, he said: “I have a bias in general towards moving more quickly, rather than more slowly, as long as you don’t inadvertently break something along the way.”Barkin’s comments come as Fed officials chart the next phase of their historic tightening cycle, which is already proceeding at the most aggressive pace since 1981.The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee faces the choice of implementing a third-consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise at its meeting later this month or slowing the pace to half-point adjustments.Barkin, who will next be a voting member on the committee in 2024, said he has not yet decided on the size of the next increase he will back, but emphasised the resilience of the US economy and that more work needed to be done to cool things off. “The economy is still moving forward [and] its momentum hasn’t been halted,” he said, noting that the labour market is still “very tight”.Over 300,000 positions were added in August, while in a welcome sign, the labour market grew in size. As more people sought jobs but had yet to secure positions, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent — still a historic low.Barkin, like other Fed officials, is looking ahead to the next inflation report, which is due to be released next week during the central bank’s official blackout period, when public communications are limited. Price pressures eased slightly in July as energy prices, which had skyrocketed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, dropped. While the annual inflation rate fell marginally to 8.5 per cent, once volatile items such as energy and food prices were stripped out, “core” inflation showed little sign of receding.In a widely watched speech delivered late last month in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed chair Jay Powell said the central bank “must keep at it” until it has restored price stability.

“What you do is you raise and you assess, and you raise and you assess,” said Barkin, citing the lessons learned from the 1970s, when the central bank prematurely eased monetary policy before it had fully vanquished inflation. But once rates move past “neutral”, meaning they neither stimulate nor restrain growth, Barkin said it will be “completely appropriate” to consider the risks of over-tightening.Like Powell — who last month warned that taming inflation is likely to require “some pain” for households and businesses given an expected period of slow growth and labour market losses — Barkin cautioned the process will not be costless.An easing of supply chain constraints globally or an influx of new workers into the labour force could help reduce the extent to which the Fed will need to damp demand, meaning a more mild economic contraction than expected.“The word recession doesn’t have to mean a calamitous decline in activity,” said Barkin. “The word recession can mean a rebalancing to get the economy back to normal.” More

The average UK household electricity price is at least 30 per cent higher than in many of its European neighbours, with the country’s greater reliance on natural gas for power generation hitting consumers hard.Europe is experiencing a continent-wide energy crisis caused by reduced oil and gas flows from Russia, but the direct impact on households varies widely depending on the energy mix of the country, according to electricity and gas pricing from Energy Prices, a Dutch consultancy.Levels of government support, pricing mechanisms and taxation are also important factors, with countries such as France capping the amount electricity prices are allowed to rise. The EU has proposed a cap on Russian gas prices and a levy on energy companies to protect households and businesses, and many European countries have announced individual measures such as tax cuts.“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted the energy axis. There can be no other way out of this, other than government intervention,” said Sumit Bose, founder of low-carbon advocacy group Future Net Zero.But the cost of electricity is still expected to rise across Europe this winter as high gas prices continue to feed through to the power market, while supplies from other sources are down due to issues such as widespread maintenance problems at France’s nuclear power plants and dry weather conditions affecting hydropower.

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The UK generates about 40 per cent of its electricity from burning natural gas after moving faster than many peers to reduce its reliance on coal. While that helped cut the country’s emissions — coal generates about twice as much CO₂ as gas when burnt — it has left the UK more exposed to surging gas prices after Russia cut supplies in retaliation for western sanctions imposed after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The UK’s household electricity price is about 30 per cent higher than the next most expensive country, Italy. That is partly down to various levies the UK government adds to bills to support renewable power and poorer households. The UK has said it is less exposed to Russian gas cuts because it has no direct pipeline connections to the country, but cannot completely escape increases in wholesale prices.The data shown for each country are a weighted average that reflects domestic energy supply. Some households in the UK and Europe have recently signed new energy contracts, while others continue to pay prices according to previous supplier agreements. As a result, new contracts are likely to be more expensive than the average prices shown here.

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In the UK, the so-called price cap that governs the vast majority of household energy bills was set to rise about 80 per cent in October, but the new prime minister, Liz Truss, is set to introduce a price freeze that will cap the typical household bill at about £2,500 a year.Higher wholesale prices are expected to feed through to higher household bills in some European countries this winter.In gas, households in the Netherlands pay the highest costs followed by Germany. Both countries were heavily reliant on Russian supplies. The Netherlands has also largely shut down the Groningen gasfield, which was once Europe’s largest, because its depletion was causing earthquakes in the town.The UK has the third most expensive household gas prices, despite the wholesale price trading at a lower level than the European benchmark for most of this summer, primarily as a result of the UK’s higher level of liquefied natural gas import capacity and domestic production from the North Sea.UK companies have been sending imported LNG to mainland Europe via pipeline to help countries fill their storage facilities. Hungary has the lowest household gas costs by a large margin. Despite criticism from other EU members of its relationship with Moscow, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has agreed a number of deals with Russia to ensure lower-priced gas deliveries. More

The European metals industry has warned that the energy crisis poses an “existential threat” to its future as executives fear many smelters face permanent shutdown without emergency action from the EU.In a letter to EU leaders, Eurometaux, the nonferrous metals trade body, said the industry’s problems, which have led to “unprecedented” cuts to smelter production in the past year, will deepen unless the EU intervenes. An aluminium smelter in Slovakia and a zinc plant in the Netherlands have halted production indefinitely with the threat of more closures to follow, some likely permanent, according to the trade body.“We are deeply concerned that the winter ahead could deliver a decisive blow to many of our operations,” Eurometaux wrote in a letter signed by 40 chief executives. “We appeal for EU and member state leaders to take emergency action to preserve their strategic electricity-intensive industries and prevent permanent job losses.”The cost of energy has become far higher in Europe than in Asia and the US after Russia slashed gas supplies to the continent, which is threatening to wipe out corners of the region’s industry.Europe has already cut about half of its production capacity for aluminium and zinc used in everything from cars, planes and packaging to galvanised steel, according to Eurometaux.Gas prices have soared to about 12 times their average of the previous decade after Russia cut supplies to Europe. That has driven up the price of electricity by a similar amount. Electricity is used in vast quantities by smelters and other heavy industries.In a separate letter to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, 12 groups that represent energy-intensive industries including cement, chemicals and steel asked the EU to take measures to limit the price of natural gas, disconnect the link between gas and electricity markets that have helped force up power prices, and adjust the bloc’s state aid framework temporarily.“For many energy-intensive industries there is currently no business case to continue production in Europe nor visibility and certainty for investments and further developments,” the industry bodies collectively wrote.In response, Brussels is set to propose targets for reductions to electricity demand, levies on energy companies — the proceeds of which can be redirected to consumers and businesses — and amending state aid rules to allow governments to support companies in financial straits.The plans will be discussed at an emergency meeting of EU energy ministers on Friday as member states push Brussels to take rapid remedial action.On Tuesday, Aluminium Dunkerque, Europe’s largest primary smelter for the metal, said it would curtail production by 22 per cent because of high electricity prices. Outokumpu, the largest producer of stainless steel in Europe, also announced that it would delay the restart of one of its ferrochrome furnaces following maintenance. Ferrochrome is a type of alloy.Aluminium, also known as “solid electricity”, is coming under a particularly acute threat because those smelters are extremely energy intensive, cannot easily adjust production volumes and are difficult to restart once halted.

Nick Keramidas, European and regulatory affairs director of Mytilineos, a Greek industrial conglomerate that produces aluminium, said the electricity, at current market prices, needed to produce a tonne of aluminium would cost about €10,000 but it would sell for less than €2,500. His company has long-term power purchasing contracts in place, he said, but the whole industry would struggle when contracts expire.“Anything unhedged cannot survive these electricity prices,” he added. “Right now it’s impossible to buy forward electricity at prices that will keep you afloat.”As a result of the current market situation, Eurometaux said that more smelters will shut at the start of 2023 once their hedging for this year runs out unless the EU makes urgent, far-reaching interventions in the power market. Ami Shivkar, principal analyst of aluminium markets at Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, said a further 600,000 tonnes of aluminium production was at risk of temporary closure in Europe in the next few months.“To restart a smelter you need a humongous amount of capital,” she said in a warning that temporary closures can turn into permanent ones.The European electricity sector has pushed back against a tax on power producers, however. Kristian Ruby, chief executive of Eurelectric, which represents Europe’s electricity sector, said: “Politicians are quick to conclude ‘here is someone making a big buck, let’s tax them’ but what we are seeing is an unprecedented stress level [in the sector].”Additional reporting by Sylvia Pfeifer More

Britain’s new prime minister is setting up a policy clash with the Bank of England that economists think will lead to a jump in interest rates before Christmas.Liz Truss’s plans for generous energy subsidies will boost the economy, lowering measured inflation and helping households maintain their spending levels, but this is likely to force the central bank to raise rates faster to keep inflation under control. Financial markets are betting that the bank’s official interest rate will rise from the current level of 1.75 per cent to more than 3 per cent in December in a jump designed to shock households and companies.There are three Monetary Policy Committee meetings before Christmas, with the first on September 15. Allan Monks, UK economist at JPMorgan, said: “It looks increasingly likely that the BoE will deliver a 0.75 percentage point rate hike next week.” Allies of Truss have indicated she will announce a plan to address soaring energy costs on Thursday based around a freeze in energy bills at a level of £2,500 a year, which is larger than economists had expected. The BoE did not factor any new support into its August forecasts. Freezing energy bills would stop inflation rising far above the 10.1 per cent level it reached in July, but the BoE thinks the economy needs to go into recession to bring it down sustainably. A large fiscal stimulus would moderate the chances of recession, Monks said, but that “would likely leave the economy and labour market more resilient than the BoE expected in August, and place a greater burden on the bank to bring inflation down by taking rates higher”.He said monetary and fiscal policies were likely to “collide”. In a tough speech on Monday, Catherine Mann, one of the external members of the bank’s MPC, said interest rate rises needed to be “fast and forceful” in order to show the BoE was serious about meeting its inflation target. That was better, she said, than relying on economic weakness alone to bring inflation down. Writing in the Financial Times on Sunday, Kwasi Kwarteng, who was appointed chancellor on Tuesday, said that “co-ordination across monetary policy and fiscal policy is crucial”.But economists think this will be almost impossible to achieve if the government is seeking to boost spending while the BoE is trying to damp demand. James Searle, European interest rate strategist at Citi, warned that “fiscal and monetary policy in the UK are now set to pull in different directions”.Searle added that the developments were “concerning” because Treasury policy would contradict that of the central bank and “it also suggests a fundamental incongruity in the analytical framework used by the central bank and fiscal authority”.With the BoE having the final word, Searle predicted that “the MPC will react with growing degrees of aggression to further fiscal easing”.Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London, believes this conflict is inevitable. “Trussonomics means more borrowing,” he said, cautioning that while increasing government debt was not a problem for the BoE when interest rates were stuck close to zero, that did not apply now. “UK interest rates are well off their floor and are headed up. Inflation, of course, is running at about 10 per cent,” Portes said.Truss, meanwhile, has become less aggressive towards the BoE as she has come closer to power. In July, she wanted to review the BoE’s mandate and called for ministers to give the bank “a very clear direction of travel on monetary policy”. But this week, she has pledged her support for the bank’s independence, saying “it is the Bank of England’s job to bring inflation down”. Her comments will give BoE governor Andrew Bailey and other officials at the bank some reassurance that Truss and her chancellor will not object to higher interest rates. The governor and his colleagues are set to appear at the House of Commons Treasury select committee on Wednesday to outline their latest thinking. More

JOHANNESBURG/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies will find it difficult to reclaim ground lost this year as relentless Federal Reserve rate hikes and safe-haven demand keep the dollar ascendant, a Reuters poll of currency strategists found.A stampede into the greenback pushed the wider index of emerging market currencies to its lowest in two years on Tuesday amid growing worries of global recession.The Sept. 1-6 Reuters survey of currency strategists showed more of the same trouble ahead. Almost all beaten-down EM currencies were expected to weaken or at best cling to a range over the next three months. “EMFX will continue to go through a period of elevated volatility until the USD reaches a climax,” noted Phoenix Kalen, director of emerging markets strategy at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY).”Not only has the market over the past month reverted back to pricing in a more aggressive pace of FOMC rate hikes, but the underlying context of global growth has continued to deteriorate … and downside China surprises add to the myriad challenges facing EM FX.”During past U.S. tightening cycles emerging market central banks usually tried to match or better the pace of the Fed but this time they have failed to keep up.This has put pressure on EM currencies, driving India’s rupee and Philippine’s peso to record lows. [INR/POLL]Nearly three-quarters of analysts, 41 of 56, who answered an additional question said EM currencies would fall against the dollar in the next three months, including six who said they would fall significantly. FX analysts also warned that the Chinese yuan, which is down about 9% this year, is affecting emerging market counterparts more than ever before and may have a profound effect on their performance over the coming year.”The Fed is not going to be the only factor keeping the dollar strong. EMFX remains undermined by renminbi weakness,” said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.”Unless China presents some sizable fiscal stimulus or abandons its zero COVID strategy, EMFX will continue to trade poorly.”While the Reuters poll median for China’s yuan suggests the currency would strengthen, Mitul Kotecha at TD Securities said there are growing signs, including from recent yuan fixings, that the People’s Bank of China is uncomfortable with the pace of CNY depreciation.”The authorities will favour some depreciation to support exports but will remain wary of a rapid decline in the currency as reflected in recent PBOC push back. We expect such resistance to be maintained, especially ahead of the Communist Party Congress in mid-October,” added Kotecha. South Africa’s rand meanwhile has taken on a more favourable outlook in comparison to other EM currencies. The high-yielding rand was expected to erase most of its losses made so far this year, gaining about 6.0% to 16.30/$ in a year.Turkey’s lira is down nearly 26% this year, in addition to the 44% it lost last year, as Turkey’s central bank slashed interest rates even as inflation was soaring. Inflation exceed 80% in August.The worst-performing emerging market currency this year, the lira was set to fall about 16% to 21.66 per dollar in the next 12 months.Russia’s rouble, which was propped up by capital controls and had artificially risen to become the world’s best-performing currency so far this year, is expected to weaken more than 15% to 71.00/$ in a year.(For other stories from the September Reuters foreign exchange poll:) More

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s struggling currency will not regain its losses against the U.S. dollar anytime soon as steep interest rate increases from the Bank of England fail to offset an expected recession and increased government spending, a Reuters poll found.Liz Truss, appointed prime minister on Tuesday, faces a daunting list of problems, steering Britain through a likely lengthy recession and an energy crisis that threatens the finances of millions of households and businesses.Adding to the woes of indebted households facing soaring costs, the Bank of England is expected to lift borrowing costs by another bumper 50 basis points next month having already raised Bank Rate from 0.10% to 1.75%. [ECILT/GB]On the flip side, the dollar was expected to benefit from U.S. interest rate rises, an economy outperforming its peers and its safe-haven appeal. [EUR/POLL]Sterling, down about 15% this year and wallowing around 2-1/2 year lows against the dollar, was expected to hover near Tuesday’s $1.16 level in one and three months time, the Sept. 1-6 poll of nearly 60 foreign exchange strategists predicted.”Recent sterling price action has been striking partly for its resemblance to some emerging markets – higher inflation, higher rates, and a falling currency,” noted Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).”Our baseline assumption is that the most rapid phase of Sterling underperformance is now behind us.”In six months the pound will have risen to $1.18 and in a year to $1.23, the poll found, still far short of the $1.35 it started 2022 around.But when asked what rate the lowest the pound would fall to within the next three months the median response was $1.14. If it does go below $1.1413 it would be its weakest since 1985.”Cable in our view is likely to weaken further as inflation prospects in Britain are quite worrisome,” said Roberto Mialich at UniCredit.”The Bank of England is likely to hike further but real rates we expect to widen further, to the detriment of sterling.”Analysts at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) said they expect spending pledges of around 100 billion pounds ($115.26 billion)from Truss, about a quarter of what was spent to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, which would likely lead to further inflation and the need for the BoE to respond.Against the common currency the pound will trade broadly flat from where it was on Tuesday. In one month a euro will fetch 85.9 pence and in a year 86.0p, the poll found.(For other stories from the September Reuters foreign exchange poll:)($1 = 0.8676 pounds) More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The dollar will remain a force to reckon with over the remainder of this year and into the next as U.S. interest rates rise and the economy outperforms its peers, reinforced by its safe-haven appeal when investors choose to worry, according to a Reuters poll.Backed by a strong U.S. economy still creating jobs at a consensus-beating pace, the Federal Reserve has ramped up its fight against inflation by hiking interest rates much quicker than most of its peers. That has helped the dollar turn in one of its best performances in at least a decade.The dollar index which was up around 15% for the year touched a fresh two-decade high of 110.55 on Tuesday.With most outcomes like higher interest rate differentials and safe haven moves expected to favour the dollar, the currency is likely to remain strong for longer.”The dollar between now and at least the end of the year will remain stronger across the board,” said Roberto Mialich, currency strategist at UniCredit.”At the current juncture, the Fed, focusing more on economic growth than inflation would probably be the only reason why the dollar might change its current trend… also the dollar might also benefit from its safe-haven status.”But beyond 2022, the dollar was expected to give up some of those year-to-date gains, the Reuters Sept. 1-6 poll of 70 foreign exchange strategists showed. However, those predicted gains for other currencies would fall short of making up for their current year-to-date losses.While the dollar has dominated nearly every currency tracked by analysts and traders it has performed particularly well against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.All three currencies have either touched multi-decade lows or were close to doing so.The euro already down 13% for the year hit a two-decade low of $0.9876 on Monday as the prospects for a winter without Russian gas sunk in.It was expected to trade below parity over the next three months, suggesting the 75 basis point European Central Bank rate hike forecast for its Thursday meeting would do little to reverse the euro’s fortunes. [ECILT/EU]The common currency was forecast to trade around $1.02 and $1.06 in the next six and 12 months respectively. If realized, those expected gains of around 3% to 7% would fall short in making up for the 13% decline for the year.Those median forecasts for one, three and six month horizons were the lowest in nearly two decades.”If the ECB goes with 50 bps, we would be concerned markets will see them as not committed enough to fighting inflation… A 75 bps hike is not frontloading in our view, but a long-overdue catching up from well behind. The ECB has a lot more to do,” said Michalis Rousakis, G10 FX strategist at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Securities.”Still, this may not be enough to support EUR/USD. Communication will matter much more, in our view. The EUR needs strong statements from (ECB President Christine) Lagarde that the ECB will do whatever it takes to bring inflation down to the target.”The Japanese yen, down about a fifth and the worst underperformer among majors for the year, was expected to recoup about half of those losses to trade at 127.0 per dollar in a year. It was last trading around 142 against the dollar.Britain’s struggling currency won’t regain its losses against the U.S. dollar anytime soon as steep interest rate increases from the Bank of England fail to offset an expected recession and increased government spending. [GBP/POLL]Sterling, down about 15% this year, was expected to hover at the $1.16 it was trading around on Tuesday in one and three months time. In six months the pound will have risen to $1.18 and in a year to $1.23, the poll found, still far short of the around $1.35 it started 2022.(For other stories from the September Reuters foreign exchange poll:) More