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    Job Openings Picked Up in July, Showing the Labor Market Remains Hot

    Demand for workers remained strong in July, a sign that the U.S. labor market remains vibrant even as the Federal Reserve tries to cool the economy by raising interest rates.Job openings ticked up to 11.2 million, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday as part of its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS.The survey included a large upward revision for openings in June, to 11 million from an estimated 10.7 million. The figure reached a record of more than 11.8 million in March.Substantial aid during the pandemic’s ups-and-downs has kept businesses of all sizes afloat and household finances relatively healthy, resulting in robust demand for a broad variety of goods and services. But the labor force is still smaller than it was before the pandemic, forcing employers to scramble to hire.Openings outnumber unemployed workers by a ratio of two to one.The largest increases in openings were in transportation, warehousing and utilities jobs. In a sign of continued recovery, postings surged in the arts, entertainment and recreation industries, which have greatly benefited from the easing of Covid-19 concerns and restrictions.The State of Jobs in the United StatesEmployment gains in July, which far surpassed expectations, show that the labor market is not slowing despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy.July Jobs Report: U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs in the seventh month of the year. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent in June.Black Employment: Black workers saw wages and employment rates go up in the wake of the pandemic. But as the Federal Reserve tries to tame inflation, those gains could be eroded.Slow Wage Growth: Pay has been rising rapidly for workers at the top and the bottom. But things haven’t been so positive for all professions, especially pharmacists.Care Worker Shortages: A lack of child care and elder care options is forcing some women to limit their hours or has sidelined them altogether, hurting their career prospects.Several prominent companies announced layoffs this summer. But both the overall rate and number of layoffs have been flat on a monthly basis, while the recently elevated rate of quitting declined only slightly in July, showing that workers remain able to leave jobs they find unsatisfying.There were some signs of weakness, however. The survey found that job openings decreased in durable-goods manufacturing by an estimated 47,000. Some economists say this is unsurprising after the intense consumer demand for goods at the beginning of the pandemic. But it may also be an early mark of tighter financial conditions as a result of the Fed’s bid to rein in price increases.Economists and bank analysts said the report made it likely that the Fed would remain aggressive in raising interest rates, as the central bank tries to weaken the labor market so that wage gains and consumer spending, which have slowed, will dip further in better alignment with the supply-constrained economy.“The job market remains surprisingly resilient to the Fed’s best efforts to cool it off,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The Fed desperately wants job growth to slow and unemployment to stabilize, even rise a bit, to quell wage and price pressures.”The Labor Department’s employment report for July was unexpectedly strong, showing a gain of 528,000. Mr. Zandi said the “red hot” JOLTS data would put even greater focus on the August hiring data, due Friday.The demand for labor is particularly remarkable because, based on inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, the economy contracted slightly in the first half of the year. Despite higher prices, the raw amount of goods and services being exchanged remains considerable, fueling demand for labor.“Millions of Americans still can find employment or even trade up to a higher-paying position,” said Robert Frick, an economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “We may be seeing a second wind for economic growth after high inflation and slowing job growth in the spring.”Some commentators say the data on openings may be somewhat overstated because businesses have little incentive to take down listings, even if the urgency of hiring has waned.And there are signs that the tide may be shifting. A survey of more than 100 chief financial officers by Deloitte, a consulting and financial advisory firm, showed that nearly all of them expected decreases in revenue, hiring and overall expansion in the coming year.Their growth expectations for wages and staffing declined. They expect annual wage growth to be 4.8 percent and personnel growth to be 2.6 percent — both down from 5.3 percent in the previous quarterly survey. The Fed is also making a mark in corporate financing, which can affect hiring capacity or decisions: Roughly one in 10 chief financial officers at public companies viewed debt financing as attractive, down from nine in 10 a year ago.Still, executives remained relatively confident about the prospects for their own businesses, a disconnect that mirrors how consumers have maintained a gloomy economic outlook across the board while people in most income brackets continue to spend at heightened levels. More

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    German inflation hits 40-year high as calls mount for bigger ECB rate rises

    German inflation accelerated to a 40-year high of 8.8 per cent in the year to August, bolstering calls for the European Central Bank to accelerate the pace of interest rate rises when its policymakers meet next week.Consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy were mostly driven by the soaring cost of energy and food, lifting inflation 0.4 percentage points from July despite recent government measures to cushion the blow for households. The figures supported calls by ECB governing council members for the bank to be more aggressive in its policy response to the surge in inflation, which has hit its highest level since the euro was created 23 years ago and is expected to have accelerated further in August.Some, such as Austrian central bank boss Robert Holzmann, have publicly called for the ECB to discuss stepping up the pace of rate rises from an initial half percentage point rise in July to a three-quarter point increase at next week’s meeting.The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent wholesale gas and electricity prices surging to record levels in Europe in recent weeks and pushed up the cost of fertiliser and other agricultural commodities such as wheat.In August, German energy prices rose 35.6 per cent and food prices 16.6 per cent. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose to 3.1 per cent, up from 2.8 per cent in July.Some ECB rate-setters worry the inflationary shock caused by the disruption of the invasion of Ukraine has been accentuated by the demand shock following the reopening of European economies as coronavirus restrictions were ended earlier this year.“The economy has held up well and some of the factors that helped in the second quarter are likely to carry over into the third quarter,” said Klaas Knot, the Dutch central bank governor, speaking at an event in Copenhagen hosted by Danske Bank on Tuesday.“The broadening and deepening of our inflation problem generates the need to act forcefully,” said Knot, adding that he expected the ECB to start shrinking its balance sheet by the end of this year, with the issue likely to be on the agenda in October or December.German inflation continued to rise despite government action, including lower duty on fuel and energy bills and a subsidised €9 monthly train ticket. Many of the measures will expire in September, making it likely that inflation will jump even higher. Joachim Nagel, head of Germany’s central bank, warned recently that inflation in the country was this year likely to rise at double-digit levels for the first time since 1951 and predicted prices would rise at least 6 per cent next year.Recent business surveys indicate supply bottlenecks have been easing for companies for several months, and many are reporting rising inventories of unsold products because of falling orders. But Carsten Brzeski, head of macro research at ING, said this did not mean inflation would start falling. “Even if pricing power in both industry and services seems to have peaked, we still expect the pass-through from higher costs to last for a few more months,” he said.The German inflation figures — combined with a jump in Belgian inflation to a 46-year-high of 9.9 per cent in August — reinforced expectations that overall eurozone price growth is likely to hit a record of at least 9 per cent when the data is released on Wednesday.However, Spain’s statistics agency said inflation there fell slightly to 10.3 per cent in August despite the price of electricity, food, eating out and package holidays rising at a “notable” pace. Spanish core inflation — excluding non-processed food and energy prices — rose 6.4 per cent in the year to August, the fastest rate since January 1993, it said. Are we heading towards a global recession? Our economics editor Chris Giles and US economics editor Colby Smith discussed this and how different countries are likely to react in our latest IG Live. Watch it here. More

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    Investors bet against UK government bonds on rising inflation fears

    Big investors are betting on a fresh surge in UK borrowing costs because of mounting concerns the energy crisis will inflame inflation and trigger further Bank of England rate rises. The darkening outlook for the £2tn gilt market comes as surging energy prices exacerbate Britain’s cost of living crisis and heighten fears of recession. Goldman Sachs on Monday said UK inflation could exceed 20 per cent by the start of 2023 if gas costs remain highly elevated.The wagers against UK government debt have already sent short-term borrowing costs in the gilt market soaring. The two-year gilt yield, which reflects market expectations for BoE policy, touched 3 per cent on Tuesday for the first time in 14 years. It has jumped 1.2 percentage points this month in the biggest rise since at least 1992, according to Bloomberg data. Bond yields rise when prices fall. Sterling has also taken a hit, falling on Tuesday to as low as $1.1623, the weakest level in more than two years. “The UK is in a particularly fragile position,” said one hedge fund manager shorting gilts. The country is “asking foreigners to basically fund” plans for unfunded tax cuts and spending increases “at super low interest rates”, the person added. Odey Asset Management, BlueBay Asset Management and Transtrend are among the hedge funds betting that yields on gilts will continue rising as investors shun UK government debt. Foreign investors ditched £16.6bn worth of gilts in July, the biggest sell-off in the market in four years, according to BoE data released on Tuesday.“This is only the start,” said Crispin Odey, the founder of the eponymous group. “You’ve got to remember that the [market] consensus is that we’re going to be at less than 3 per cent inflation by the last quarter of next year,” he said, adding that such a forecast was “rubbish”.Other global bond markets, including US Treasuries and German Bunds, have also sold off sharply in recent weeks as central banks battle inflation.With inflation running at a 40-year high, the next UK prime minister — due to be announced next week — will inherit an economy under intense pressure, with economists now expecting the UK to slide into recession as the cost of living crisis bites. Goldman this week forecast that the UK could not escape recession even if Liz Truss, frontrunner to succeed Boris Johnson, reverses national insurance contribution increases and spends a further £30bn on supporting households. The bank now expects UK economic output to contract by 1 per cent from the final three months of this year and the second quarter of 2022. Goldman economist Ibrahim Quadri forecast that inflation will peak at 14.8 per cent early next year from 10.1 per cent in July 2022. But he warned that if gas prices remain at the levels hit last week, inflation could reach 22.4 per cent. UK gas futures hit a high of almost £6.50 a therm last week, but have since eased to about £4.70. They started the year at about £1.70. Markets are now betting the BoE will raise rates to 4.2 per cent next May, up from 1.75 per cent at present, and 0.1 per cent in November 2021. Central bank rate rises tend to lead debt investors to sell off bonds maturing in the next few years. Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay who is shorting gilts, said inflation could peak at 15 per cent. But he compared the BoE to “a rabbit in the headlights” wary of aggressive rate rises for fear of “cratering the UK economy”.The central bank warned this month that inflation would hit 13 per cent by the end of the year as it forecast the economy faced a 15-month-long recession.Funds have been emboldened in their bets because, after buying gilts for more than a decade as part of its quantitative easing programme, the central bank has now switched to selling government debt — a further downward risk to prices. The central bank bought 57 per cent of the net £1.5tn of gilts sold between March 2009 and June 2022, according to research by Bank of America. Kamal Sharma, analyst at BofA, noted this month that a combination of a large current account deficit and a reliance on overseas investors buying gilts was “significant negative” for the market.

    Computer-driven hedge funds that latch on to trends in global futures markets have also seized on the turbulence in the gilt market.Rotterdam-based Transtrend, which manages $6.1bn in assets, is shorting gilts and other UK fixed income instruments. Many of these bets are that UK bonds will underperform debt sold by other governments. While the hedge funds are pessimistic on the overall outlook for the gilt market, some say that longer-dated bonds are particularly vulnerable because their level of yield assumes a fairly rapid return to lower inflation.Dowding at BlueBay, which manages $106bn in assets, said he was “perplexed” by the low yields on 10-year bonds, since they imply that inflation will be a relatively shortlived phenomenon. As a result, BlueBay is betting that longer-term yields will rise relative to shorter-term ones.“The yield curve needs to steepen quite dramatically,” he said. Yields on the 10-year gilt “are not compensating me much”.That view was echoed by Odey, who has been betting against very long-dated gilts such as the 30-year, where he says the market consensus is “most entrenched”. The yield on 30-year bonds jumped from 2.4 per cent to almost 3 per cent this month alone. Are we heading towards a global recession? Our economics editor Chris Giles and US economics editor Colby Smith discussed this and how different countries are likely to react in our latest IG Live. Watch it here. More

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    Tough economic times lie ahead

    Central banks are determined to bring inflation back under control. This was the message from Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, and Isabel Schnabel, an influential member of the board of the European Central Bank at the Jackson Hole symposium last week. So, why were the central banks so insistent on this message? Are they right? Above all, what might it imply for future policy and the economy?“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth . . . While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labour market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.” These were the words of Powell. Again, Schnabel argued that central banks must act decisively, since expectations risk being de-anchored, inflation has been persistently too high, and the costs of bringing it under control will rise the longer action is delayed. There are risks of doing too much and of doing too little. Yet “determination” to act is a better choice than “caution”.

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    It is not difficult to understand why central bankers say what they are saying. They have a clear mandate to control inflation on which they have failed to deliver. Not just headline inflation, but core inflation (excluding energy and food) has been above target for a prolonged period. Of course, this unhappy outcome has much to do with a series of unexpected supply shocks, in the context of the post-pandemic shift towards consumption of goods, the constraints on energy supply and now the war in Ukraine. But the scissors have two blades: demand, as well as supply. Central banks, notably the Fed, persisted with the pandemic’s ultra-loose policies for too long, though US fiscal policy was also too expansionary.

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    In an important analysis, Ricardo Reis of the London School of Economics points to four reasons why this happened. First, central banks repeatedly interpreted supply shocks as temporary interruptions, not quasi-permanent hits to potential output. Second, they misread short-term expectations, focusing too much on the mean rather than the shift towards higher expectations at the upper edges of the distribution. Third, they tended to view credibility as an infinitely deep well, instead of a shallow one that needs to be refilled promptly. Thus, they failed to note that the distributions of long-term inflation expectations were also shifting against them. Finally, their belief in a low neutral rate of interest led them to worry too much about deflation and too little about the return of inflation. A central point is that these were intellectual mistakes. So, in my view, has been the lack of attention paid to monetary data.In essence, central banks are playing catch-up because they fear that they risk losing credibility and, if they did, the costs of regaining it would be far higher than of acting now. This fear is reinforced by the risks to wage inflation from the combination of high price inflation with strong labour markets. The fact that higher energy prices raise the prices of essentially everything makes this risk bigger. This could then start a second-round wage-price spiral.They are right to take this judgment. A shift into a 1970s-style era of high and unstable inflation would be a calamity. Yet there is indeed a risk that the slowdown in economies caused by a combination of falling real incomes, and tightening financial conditions will cause an unnecessarily deep slowdown. One part of the problem is that calibrating monetary tightening is particularly difficult today, because it involves raising short-term rates and shrinking balance sheets at the same time. A bigger one is that policymakers have not confronted anything like this for four decades.In the US, there is a particularly optimistic view of “immaculate disinflation”, promulgated by the Federal Reserve. This debate focuses on whether it is possible to reduce labour market pressure by lowering vacancies without raising unemployment. An important paper by Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash and Lawrence Summers argues that this would be unprecedented. The Fed has responded by saying that everything now is unprecedented, so why not this, too? In reply, the authors of the original paper insist that there is no good reason to believe things are that unprecedented. Think about it: how can one expect a general monetary tightening only to hit firms with vacancies? It is sure to hit firms that would then have to lay off workers, as well.

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    If the planned tightening of monetary policy is likely to generate a recession in the US, what might happen in Europe? The answer is that the recessions there are likely to be deep, given that the energy price shock is so large. Here too, the balance between the impact on supply and demand is unclear. If the impact of higher energy prices on the former is larger than on the latter, demand will need to be curbed, too.Monetary policy will play a part in the European story. But the core of its current crisis is the energy shock. Central banks cannot do anything directly about such real economic disturbances. They must stick to their mandate of price stability. But a huge effort must be made to shield the most vulnerable from the crisis. Moreover, those most vulnerable will include not just people, but countries. A high level of fiscal co-operation will be needed in the eurozone. A political understanding of the need for solidarity within countries and among them is a precondition.A storm has come from Europe’s east. It must be weathered. How best to do so will be the subject of future [email protected] Martin Wolf with myFT and on TwitterAre we heading towards a global recession? Our economics editor Chris Giles and US economics editor Colby Smith discussed this and how different countries are likely to react in our latest IG Live. Watch it here. More

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    England’s councils plan ‘heat hubs’ as residents fear soaring bills

    Local councils and voluntary groups across the UK are organising “warmth banks” to provide shelter to people unable to pay soaring energy bills this winter, as concerns mount over the impact of the cost of living crisis.Charity groups and local government networks contacted by the Financial Times reported that they were actively planning the so-called heat-hubs after last week’s announcement by the energy regulator Ofgem that average household bills will top £3,500 from October.The cap far exceeded earlier forecasts, with industry consultants now predicting bills could exceed £6,600 by spring, dwarfing the government’s current offer of around £1,200 in support for the poorest families. Allison Riddell, the clerk of the parish council in Brampton, a small market town in North Cumbria, said she was aware of elderly residents already eating sandwiches and other cold food because they were too worried about the cost of using their stoves.“It breaks my heart,” she said, explaining that the council plans to use the local Moot Hall as a sanctuary in the winter. “Our building isn’t huge, but could hold 30-40 people comfortably. We will provide books and games et cetera, and are looking into whether we can provide warm drinks,” she added.Other local government groups, from tiny parish councils to larger urban authorities, including Bristol, Gateshead, Cheltenham and Sheffield, said they were making plans to use public buildings, including libraries and leisure centres, to provide warmth.Local government budgets have faced real-terms cuts of 30 per cent in the past decade and with the value of grants being eroded by inflation, now running above 10 per cent, many community groups are reactivating old Covid-19 volunteer networks to operate the schemes.Alison Dunn, co-ordinator of Gateshead council’s warm spaces network, said the scheme involving more than 50 local groups had been devised after support groups like the Citizens Advice Bureau had realised that traditional tips on energy saving were not sufficient in the face of the current crisis.“There’s no [government] money to run these hubs, so we’ve asked for expressions of interest so that we can use community activism to support the programme which offers a warm space, a hot drink to anyone, and with no questions asked,” she said.Mazher Iqbal, a Sheffield city councillor, said his council was scouring budgets, including NHS winter emergency funds, to provide additional support for their own warm spaces network.Bristol City Council said it was also working with community organisations to open a network of “welcoming spaces” for residents, offering warmth, company and practical services like phone recharging and free WiFi. Cheltenham Borough Council said it was discussing similar plans.

    Sue Collins, bottom left, chair of the Bungay Community Support group © Paul Grover/Telegraph 2022

    Horden parish council in County Durham, which has a high percentage of residents on low incomes, said its hub would enable anyone to get a hot drink, engage in hobby activities and board games, and would also provide webinars on health and energy management. Many of the parish council schemes are modelled on the pioneering efforts of Bungay, a small town in Suffolk that last year ran warmth hubs, which proved popular with residents struggling to pay bills. Sue Collins, chair of the Bungay Community Support group, said it was improving its offer this year. “Last year it was mostly older people, but we’re anticipating that there could be families this time as parents look to cope with children at home,” she said.The fact that so much of the provision is coming from the voluntary sector highlights the increased role of charities in the UK’s social safety net, according to campaign groups, which urged the government to offer more support. 

    Peter Smith, director of policy at advocacy group National Energy Action, said that government intervention was needed to create a more systemic offering. “Government needs to support local communities to host these warm, safe spaces,” he said. “Among the immediate steps could be VAT and business rate relief for those offering these places.”Adam Lent, chief executive of the think-tank and local government network New Local, said that while councils and communities were stepping up, it was no alternative to a response from central government.“We need to accept that in an increasingly volatile world, local public services and community groups are a crucial source of support and rapid action. Westminster should urgently give them adequate funding to allow this community-powered approach to flourish,” he added.Are you facing difficulties managing your finances as the cost of living rises? Our consumer editor Claer Barrett and finance educator Tiffany ‘The Budgetnista’ Aliche discussed tips on the best ways to save and budget as prices across the globe increase in our latest IG Live. Watch it here. More

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    Fed's Barkin: no need for possible U.S. recession to be 'calamitous'

    (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve’s commitment to raising interest rates in order to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal will not necessarily result in a severe economic downturn and brings some benefits, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday.”A recession is obviously a risk,” Barkin said during an event at the Huntington Regional Chamber of Commerce in West Virginia. “It doesn’t have to be like a 2008 recession. It doesn’t need to be calamitous, we’re out of balance today…returning to normal might actually mean products on shelves, cars on lots and restaurants fully staffed.” More

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    ECB must swiftly normalise rates; neutral may not be enough, Knot says

    The ECB raised its deposit rate by 50 basis points to zero in July and a similar move was expected for September until recently, but a host of policymakers, including Knot, made the case for discussing a larger, 75 basis point increase as well.”A swift normalization of interest rates is an essential first phase, and some front-loading should not be excluded,” Knot told a Danske Bank event. “The broadening and deepening of our inflation problem generates the need to act forcefully.”When asked about his preference for the move, Knot hinted that he was leaning towards 75 basis points but still wanted to review data and discuss with colleagues.In the first step, the bank should get rates back to the neutral level – somewhere between 1% and 2% – this year but Knot said he was “not convinced” that this will be enough and restrictive policy may be needed. At 8.9%, inflation is already more than four times the ECB’s 2% target and could exceed 10% in the coming months, raising the risk that even longer term expectations move higher as businesses and households start to doubt the ECB’s willingness or ability to control prices.Knot himself argued that there were upside risks to inflation, including from higher food and energy prices, a weaker euro, copious budget spending and rising expectations. A recession, increasingly considered the baseline given the loss of gas supplies, would weigh on price pressures but Knot argued that this alone would not be enough.One issue is that given the scarcity of labour, firms are likely to “hoard” labour in the initial phase of a downturn as this would be less costly than struggling to find workers later. “Even if this slowdown were to materialize, this in itself is unlikely to bring inflation back to our objective over the medium term,” he said.While it was uncertain where rate hikes should end, Knot argued that the ECB should just keep raising rates until the inflation outlook becomes consistent again with the ECB’s symmetric target.As part of policy normalisation, the bank should also consider reducing its balance sheet after trillions of euros worth of bond purchases over the past decade.A reduction in the bank’s balance sheet could come from the less than full reinvestment of funds maturing in the recently discontinued Asset Purchase Programme but this would be “very gradual”.Talks over a balance sheet reduction could start in October or December, Knot said. More

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    Factbox-Government measures to ease inflation pain

    Below is a list of some of the actions taken by governments aimed at offering relief to hard-hit consumers and companies:AMERICAS:* The United States will help millions of indebted former students by cancelling $10,000 of their outstanding student loans. The move follows the $430 billion “Inflation Reduction Act” unveiled earlier this month, which includes cuts to prescription drug prices and tax credits to encourage energy efficiency.* Brazil’s oil giant Petrobras in mid-August announced a nearly 5% cut on gasoline prices, its third cut in less than a month. The government in July cut fuel taxes and raised social welfare payments.* Chile in July announced a $1.2 billion aid plan including labour subsidies and one-time payments of $120 for 7.5 million of its 19 million residents.EUROPE:* Denmark in late August capped annual rent increases at 4% for the next two years. The move follows earlier relief measures, including a 3.1 billion Danish crown ($418.34 million)package announced in June.* Germany will introduce a gas price levy on consumers from Oct. 1. In July, Berlin agreed a 15-billion euro ($15.05 billion) state bailout of Uniper, the country’s largest importer of Russian gas. It had also cut fuel taxes and slashed public transport costs, but these measures are set to expire from September.* France’s parliament on Aug. 3 adopted a 20 billion euro relief bill, lifting pensions and some welfare payments, while also allowing companies to pay higher bonuses tax free. In late August, the government said it did not rule out a windfall tax on companies.* Italy on Aug. 4 approved about 17 billion euros in aid. The legislation aims to cut electricity and gas bills and adds to about 35 billion euros budgeted since January to soften the impact of soaring energy costs. * Poland approved a new package, which includes subsidies for heating plants whose price increases will not exceed 40%, and a 13.7 billion zloty ($2.91 billion) cash transfer for municipalities to help residents with soaring energy bills. The country had also in July introduced a relief scheme for holders of local currency mortgages.ASIA:* Japan’s average minimum wage is set for a record 3.3% increase for the year ending March 2023. The government is also due to refrain from raising the price of imported wheat it sells to retailers, as part of a planned broader relief package. The steps follow a $103 billion bill passed in April.* Indonesia will reallocate 24.17 trillion rupiah ($1.63 billion)of its fuel subsidy budget towards welfare spending, including cash handouts to 20.65 million households. The government will also instruct regional administrations to subsidise transport fares.* India in May imposed restrictions on exports of food items including wheat and sugar, which account for nearly 40% of the consumer price index, and cut taxes on imports of edible oil.AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST:* South Africa in late July announced a cut in the pump prices of fuels.* Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in early July raised their social welfare spending. The UAE doubled financial support to low-income Emirati families, while Saudi Arabia’s King Salman ordered the allocation of 20 billion riyals ($5.33 billion).* Turkey in early July increased its minimum wage by about 30%, adding to the 50% rise seen at the end of last year.($1 = 14,840.0000 rupiah)($1 = 7.4103 Danish crowns)($1 = 4.7145 zlotys)($1 = 3.7552 riyals)($1 = 0.9965 euros) More