Economy

Some sectors, like travel and entertainment, are expected to make up a large share of aggregate payrolls growth as Americans allocate more of their discretionary income to services. But Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, recession concerns and tighter financial conditions suggest an eventual hiring slowdown in some of the industries that experienced the sharpest job growth over the last two years. Employment in some areas, particularly housing, are at risk of weakening later this year and next as borrowing costs climb.“I think looking at the aggregate numbers tells you one sliver of information, but you have to dig into the details to have the full story because the economy is in a very different place depending on what sector you’re looking at,” said Michelle Meyer, US chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute. While the composition of employment has shifted in the last two years, the US has now recovered 95% of jobs lost during the first two months of the pandemic. And the unemployment rate is now within striking distance of matching the lowest level since 1969.Friday’s employment report is projected to show the economy added about 325,000 jobs in May — healthy, but still the smallest in a year.In addition to less hiring in residential construction, an ongoing rotation in consumer demand from goods into services “likely reduces the need for jobs in sectors such as transportation and warehousing,” Bloomberg Economics said. But leisure and hospitality, which remains 1.4 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels, should experience strong job growth as the sector continues to recover. At the same time, the technology industry, which thrived during the pandemic, is beginning to lose some investor interest. Venture-backed startups as well as public companies like Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) have either cut jobs, instituted hiring freezes, or both. ‘New Equilibrium’“It’s less about filling the hole that was created from the pandemic and it’s more about finding this new equilibrium in the economy where there is the right amount, the right matching between where the jobs are and where the people are in terms of looking for those jobs,” Meyer said.Meantime, the large mismatch between labor demand and supply has driven worker pay higher over the last year, but strength in some industries and weakness in others may ultimately mean a divergence in wage growth, she said. After many months of hefty wage increases, some companies are becoming more cautious when it comes to salary increases as they grow concerned about profit margins at the same time materials costs climb. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show annual average hourly earnings growth of 5.2% in May after 5.5% a month earlier.“Sectors of the economy that still have this very strong demand for workers and some limitations of supply, wage growth is still going to be increasing at a healthy clip,” Meyer said. “And in others, where job vacancies are coming down, they’re closer to kind of healing, wage growth is presumably going moderate.”So far, the job openings data show few signs of breaking lower. The Labor Department on Wednesday said vacancies eased to a still-elevated 11.4 million in April from a record 11.9 million a month earlier.Financial conditions related to higher rates and stock market performance may also weigh on the labor market in the second half of this year. The number of comments in earnings calls about labor shortages appear to have peaked, while “layoff”, “hiring freeze” and “overstaff” mentions ticked up from historical lows, according to an analysis by Bank of America Corp.“The tightening of financial conditions you’ve seen over the past six months — the pretty sharp tightening — and stock prices being down 20% or so with rising credit cost, that’s certainly going to put a chill on hiring,” said Brett Ryan, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank AG.To some extent, job growth — whether or not there’s a sharp economic downturn — is expected to slow given the low level of unemployment and expectation that the participation rate may not return to its pre-pandemic peak.  “I think that the demand is still there, but demand is peaking probably,” Ryan said. And it’s likely “to shift lower over the next year or so.”©2022 Bloomberg L.P. More

With high inflation souring Americans’ views of the economy and his presidency, Joe Biden has decided to act. This week, the president has embarked on a new effort to burnish his inflation-fighting credentials.On Tuesday Biden invited Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, to the White House to offer his backing for the central bank to do what it takes to blunt inflation. Meanwhile, in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, Biden said he realised Americans were “anxious” about inflation, stressing that the country was battling high prices from a position of “strength” compared with the rest of the world. Top officials from his administration — including Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, who said she had been “wrong” on the issue — are also increasing their public appearances.“I’m sure that [Biden] is disturbed by his 40 per cent approval rating when the economy has recovered so strongly,” said Don Beyer, a Democratic member of the House of Representatives from Virginia, who chairs the joint economic committee in Congress.The inflation picture worsened further in the wake of the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions triggered by new coronavirus lockdowns in China. Now there are concerns that the fiscal and monetary tightening needed to bring down inflation will result in a sharp slowdown in the economy. Yesterday Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, warned of an economic “hurricane” bearing down on the country.Thanks for reading FirstFT Americas. Share your feedback with us at [email protected]. The latest from the war in Ukraine:Saudi Arabia ready to pump more oil: The kingdom has indicated to western allies that it is prepared to raise oil production should Russia’s output fall substantially under the weight of sanctions, according to five people familiar with the discussions.US military aid: As mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, Washington has now said it will send Kyiv longer-range rocket systems and precision ammunition. What exactly are the systems, and how are they likely to affect Ukraine’s strategy in the war?Russian debt: Moscow’s failure to pay interest on a bond will trigger an estimated $2.5bn of payouts for holders of credit default swaps, insurance-like contracts used to protect against defaults. Five more stories in the news1. Stakeholder capitalism is ‘not woke’, says JPMorgan’s Dimon Jamie Dimon has dismissed claims that stakeholder capitalism is “woke”, pushing back against conservative criticism of the environmental and social agenda that much of corporate America has embraced in recent years. The JPMorgan Chase chief executive described himself as “a red-blooded free-market capitalist” and said people had misinterpreted his push for stakeholder capitalism as chair of the Business Roundtable.2. Sheryl Sandberg to step down from Facebook parent Meta Sheryl Sandberg is stepping down as the chief operating officer of Facebook’s parent company after 14 years, a major shake-up in which chief executive Mark Zuckerberg will lose one of his closest lieutenants.

Sheryl Sandberg will remain on Meta’s board after she leaves her executive post in the fall © Jose Luis Magana/AP

3. US and Taiwan launch initiative to deepen economic engagement The Biden administration said the “US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-century Trade” would “develop an ambitious road map” for negotiations in areas from agriculture and digital trade to climate. But the new “Road map” falls short of Taipei’s hopes for a full deal and Taiwan was not included in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which Biden launched last week.4. Musk demands 40 hours a week in the office Elon Musk has told his Tesla workers to show up for at least 40 hours a week in the office — clarifying that he does not mean “some remote pseudo office” — or said the employees should leave. The chief executive of the electric carmaker sent two emails to staff declaring that “remote work is no longer acceptable” and that manufacturing great products “will not happen by phoning it in”. 5. Pemex plans to repay $2bn to suppliers by offering new debt Mexico’s national oil company Pemex will offer to pay back about $2bn it owes big-ticket suppliers with new debt, potentially easing conditions for some of its biggest contractors. The company did not name which suppliers would benefit from the offer.The day aheadTrooping the Colour military parade UK celebrations, as well as public holidays today and tomorrow, are marking the Queen’s platinum jubilee — 70 years on the throne. Opec+ meeting The oil producers’ group meets today and is widely expected to stick with its plan of raising production by about 400,000 barrels a month, a target that has been in place since last year.Economic data EU producer price index figures and US factory orders data for April are published.Corporate earnings Canadian athleisure brand Lululemon Athletica publishes first-quarter results while US food processing company Hormel Food reports second-quarter results.What else we’re reading and listening to The global nursing crisis In 2020, the World Health Organization estimated there was a global shortage of 5.9mn nurses — almost one-quarter of the current workforce of almost 28mn. Covid-19 has made things worse, with many suffering burnout and mental health challenges as they struggled to deal with the chaos of successive waves of the virus.Fine dining faces its dark truths in Copenhagen In restaurants, two stories are being told. The first is in the dining room, a perfectly choreographed show of luxury. And then there is the story that you are never supposed to hear, of what happens on the other side. “We found out that we have actually been victims of kidnapping from life, because the life we had been offered is not a life” — a chef from UkraineRecord fundraising gives start-ups breathing space Investment in tech companies is stalling as valuations fall, with tech stocks dragging markets lower. However, start-ups still have reason to be hopeful, with forecasters believing demand for the tech products and services they provide will increase this year. Analytics, cloud computing and security groups should benefit most.Tether’s path to the spotlight This episode of the Behind the Money podcast starts with a real-life fire that sends a business up in smoke. With the help of Financial Times reporters, we dig into the professional histories of the executives who sit atop two of crypto’s most important businesses: stablecoin issuer Tether and exchange Bitfinex.How the Queen built her reign on principles of duty and detachment While recent opinion polls have suggested that younger Britons are more ambivalent about the role of the royal family, the overall majority in favour of the institution has remained relatively steady throughout Queen Elizabeth II’s reign and was still buoyant on the eve of her jubilee celebrations. “She has been the one constant in a rapidly changing world,” said royal commentator Penny Junor. You can also snoop around the Queen’s kitchen with Tom Parker Bowles, stepson of Prince Charles.

The official Platinum Jubilee portrait of Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II photographed at Windsor Castle © Royal Household/Ranald Mackechnie/via REUTERS

Imposter ‘syndrome’Don’t miss Jemima Kelly’s explanation of why we need to rethink imposterism. Should we start to think of it as a strength? More

COLOMBO (Reuters) – Sri Lanka is seeking help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its 17th program in seven decades, needing a bailout in place before its economy disintegrates and shortages worsen.WHY DOES SRI LANKA NEED THE IMF’S HELP?The country of 22 million people, located off India’s southern tip, is struggling to manage its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948.It has a long history of rising foreign obligations, driven partly by incessant government deficits, and this has been worsened by a loss of tourism revenue in the pandemic and, this year, by surging fuel costs.The resulting severe shortage of foreign exchange has stalled imports, including essentials such as fuel and medicines, and the country is also facing an impending food crisis.To find a way out of the turmoil, Sri Lanka is in talks with the IMF to borrow at least $3 billion via the lender’s extended fund facility (EFF).An IMF programme would not only give the country’s embattled government access to much-needed funds; it would also provide a pathway for Sri Lanka to eventually access international financial markets.The country was officially declared in default for the first time ever last month after it halted debt payments. HOW ARE THE NEGOTIATIONS GOING?Sri Lanka’s former finance minister Ali Sabry and new central bank governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe started talks with the IMF on April 18.On May 9, an IMF team began technical discussions with Sri Lankan authorities, just as a wave of violence swept through the country and the prime minister stepped down, leading to the dissolution of the entire cabinet of ministers.Sri Lanka was without a finance minister for the second time in as many months, while IMF talks led by officials concluded on April 24.Meanwhile, the country picked Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) and Clifford Chance as financial and legal advisers to help restructure more than $12 billion of overseas debt.Another round of talks with the IMF is expected in early June, with a staff-level agreement possible at the end of the month. However, an agreement that has IMF board approval will likely take at least until August, as it would require progress on a debt sustainability analysis, a structured examination of the country’s debt.Sri Lanka’s new prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is also serving as finance minister, would likely be part of discussions.WHAT DOES THE IMF WANT?An EFF programme typically requires countries to make structural economic reforms to correct deep-rooted weaknesses.The IMF said last week it was in talks with Sri Lanka for a comprehensive reform package but did not specify what type of programme was being negotiated.Wickremesinghe’s government already appears to be making some moves in that direction.On Tuesday, it announced a taxation overhaul to boost revenue, lifting value-added taxes and corporate income tax and slashing the relief given to individual taxpayers.Wickremesinghe is also working on an interim budget, to be presented within weeks, that he says will cut government expenditure “to the bone” and provide a relief package for the most economically vulnerable.WHY THE URGENCY?Millions of Sri Lankans have been battling shortages of essentials for weeks, including cooking gas, fuel and medicines, sometimes queuing for days to procure minimal supplies.The dire situation has stoked public anger against President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his family, who are accused of mishandling the economy and delaying negotiations with the IMF.Nationwide protests morphed into violence last month, leaving nine people dead and over 300 injured.The government has also warned of an impending food crisis, with the country’s farmers running short of fertilisers. Experts estimate food production could drop by 50%, and the shortage of foreign exchange is a threat to importation of staples.Further unrest could lead to more political turmoil, and also potentially affect negotiations with the IMF. More

As the Federal Reserve tries to rein in inflation without causing a recession, slower job creation and wage growth could be a plus.When it comes to the economy, more is usually better.Bigger job gains, faster wage growth and more consumer spending are all, in normal times, signs of a healthy economy. Growth might not be sufficient to ensure widespread prosperity, but it is necessary — making any loss of momentum a worrying sign that the economy could be losing steam or, worse, headed into a recession.But these are not normal times. With nearly twice as many open jobs as available workers and companies struggling to meet record demand, many economists and policymakers argue that what the economy needs right now is not more, but less — less hiring, less wage growth and above all less inflation, which is running at its fastest pace in four decades.Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, has called the labor market “unsustainably hot,” and the central bank is raising interest rates to try to cool it. President Biden, who met with Mr. Powell on Tuesday, wrote in an opinion article this week in The Wall Street Journal that a slowdown in job creation “won’t be a cause for concern” but would rather be “a sign that we are successfully moving into the next phase of recovery.”“We want a full and sustainable recovery,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who has studied the government’s economic policy response to the pandemic. “The reason that we can’t take the victory lap right now on the recovery — the reason it is incomplete — is because inflation is too high.”But a cooling economy carries its own risks. Despite inflation, the recovery from the pandemic recession has been among the strongest on record, with unemployment falling rapidly and incomes rebounding fastest for those at the bottom. If the recovery slows too much, it could undo much of that progress.“That’s the needle we’re trying to thread right now,” said Harry J. Holzer, a Georgetown University economist. “We want to give up as few of the gains that we’ve made as possible.”Economists disagree about the best way to strike that balance. Mr. Powell, after playing down inflation last year, now says reining it in is his top priority — and argues that the central bank can do so without cutting the recovery short. Some economists, particularly on the right, want the Fed to be more aggressive, even at the risk of causing a recession. Others, especially on the left, argue that inflation, while a problem, is a lesser evil than unemployment, and that the Fed should therefore pursue a more cautious approach.But where progressives and conservatives largely agree is that evaluating the economy will be particularly difficult over the next several months. Distinguishing a healthy cool-down from a worrying stall will require looking beyond the indicators that typically make headlines.“It’s a very difficult time to interpret economic data and to even understand what’s happening with the economy,” said Michael R. Strain, an economist with the American Enterprise Institute. “We’re entering a period where there’s going to be tons of debate over whether we are in a recession right now.”Slower job growth could be good (or bad).The jobs report for May, which the Labor Department will release on Friday, will provide a case study in the difficulty of interpreting economic data right now.Understand Inflation and How It Impacts YouInflation 101: What is inflation, why is it up and whom does it hurt? Our guide explains it all.Measuring Inflation: Over the years economists have tweaked one of the government’s standard measures of inflation, the Consumer Price Index. What is behind the changes?Inflation Calculator: How you experience inflation can vary greatly depending on your spending habits. Answer these seven questions to estimate your personal inflation rate.Interest Rates: As it seeks to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates for the first time since 2018. Here is what that means for inflation.Ordinarily, one number from the monthly report — the overall jobs added or lost — is enough to signal the labor market’s health. That is because most of the time, the driving force in the labor market is demand. If business is strong, employers will want more workers, and job growth will accelerate. When demand lags, then hiring slows, layoffs mount and job growth stalls.Right now, though, the limiting factor in the labor market is not demand but supply. Employers are eager to hire: There were 11.4 million job openings at the end of April, close to a record. But there are roughly half a million fewer people either working or actively looking for work than when the pandemic began, leaving employers scrambling to fill available jobs.The labor force has grown significantly this year, and forecasters expect more workers to return as the pandemic and the disruptions it caused continue to recede. But the pandemic may also have driven longer-lasting shifts in Americans’ work habits, and economists aren’t sure when or under what circumstances the labor force will make a complete rebound. Even then, there might not be enough workers to meet the extraordinarily high level of employer demand.A coffee shop advertised open positions in New York. The limiting factor in the labor market is not demand but supply.Amir Hamja for The New York TimesMost forecasters expect the report on Friday to show that job growth slowed in May. But that number alone won’t reveal whether the mismatch between supply and demand is easing. Slowing job growth coupled with a growing labor force could be a sign that the labor market is coming back into balance as demand cools and supply improves. But the same level of job growth without an increase in the supply of workers could indicate the opposite: that employers are having an even more difficult time finding the help they need.Many economists say they will be watching the labor force participation rate — the share of the population either working or looking for work — just as closely as the headline job growth figures in coming months.“One can unambiguously root for higher labor force participation,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was an adviser to President Barack Obama. “Beyond that, nothing else is unambiguous.”Wage growth may need to slow.Another number will be getting a lot of attention from economists, policymakers and investors: wage growth.Employers have responded to the hot competition for workers exactly the way Econ 101 says they should, by raising pay. Average hourly earnings were up 5.5 percent in April from a year earlier, more than twice the rate they were rising before the pandemic.Normally, faster wage growth would be good news. Persistently weak pay increases were a bleak hallmark of the long, slow recovery that followed the last recession. But even some economists who bemoaned those sluggish gains at the time say the current rate of wage growth is unsustainable.“That’s something that we’re used to saying pretty unequivocally is good, but in this case it just raises the risk that the economy is overheating further,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist of the Economic Innovation Group, a Washington research organization. As long as wages are rising 5 or 6 percent per year, he said, it will be all but impossible to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2 percent target.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

Joe Biden has been fretting about high inflation for months, knowing that rising prices are undermining the strong US recovery and souring Americans’ views of the economy and his presidency. This week, the president has embarked on a new effort to burnish his inflation-fighting credentials, even though his ability to quickly reverse the pernicious economic and political dynamic resulting from higher prices is limited.On Tuesday, Biden called Jay Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, to the White House to offer his backing for the central bank to do what it takes to blunt inflation, as it presses ahead with tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates. In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, Biden said he realised Americans were “anxious” about inflation, stressing that the country was battling high prices from a position of “strength” compared to the rest of the world and laid out his own efforts to blunt the cost of living increases for middle-class households. Top officials from his administration — including Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, and Kamala Harris, vice-president — are also increasing their public appearances to talk about the state of the economy. “I’m sure that [Biden] is disturbed by his 40 per cent approval rating when the economy has recovered so strongly,” said Don Beyer, a Democratic member of the House of Representatives from Virginia, who chairs the joint economic committee in Congress. “The number one thing, if you talk to consumers, is they’re concerned about gas prices and food prices. The president can’t ignore that: he needs to say very clearly that he understands it and he’s doing whatever he can.” As early as November, Biden said inflation was more stubborn than expected and causing hardship for American families, as hopes that high prices would prove transitory were dashed. But the inflation picture worsened further in the wake of the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions triggered by new coronavirus lockdowns in China. That made the problem even more acute at the start of the year. John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult, said that concerns about inflation have “risen dramatically” among Americans — even younger adults who “were very slow to start acknowledging” inflation fears had now come around. “They were the last ones to voice their concerns, and that has subsequently changed.”

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“[Consumer] confidence has continued to fall, even as the Federal Reserve and the White House come out and make these policy announcements — and inflation expectations continue to rise despite these policy changes,” he added. “So I think there’s a real credibility gap right now”. Meanwhile, concerns are emerging that the fiscal and monetary tightening needed to bring down inflation will result in a sharp slowdown in the economy, which would reverse some of the progress the labour market registered over the past year and potentially tip the US into a recession. Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, on Wednesday warned of an economic “hurricane” bearing down on the country. While White House officials believe the US can avoid such a scenario, they also stress that the economy is going through a delicate transition period between a period of high inflation and a booming jobs market to more stable growth. “We’ve run this first leg of the race at a very rapid clip. That has put us in this strong position, relative to our peers,” Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said this week. “But this is a marathon and we have to move and shift to stable, resilient growth.” Biden has taken a series of unilateral steps to bring down inflation, including efforts to reduce supply chain crunches in ports and in the trucking industry, bolster competition in the meatpacking business and persuade Opec countries to increase oil production. He has also argued that his legislative plans — including measures to lower prescription drug prices, raise taxes on the wealthy and corporate America, and subsidise child care expenses — would together help reduce the deficit and bring down costs for average households. But Biden has still not decided whether to scrap tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods, which would potentially be deflationary, and some economists and policy experts say his fiscal policies are still too expansionary. “The next step is to stop doing the policies that are boosting demand,” says Marc Goldwein, head of policy at the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan think-tank in Washington. “In some ways, we still have our foot on the gas.”

Persistent inflation has placed the Biden administration and many Democrats on the defensive about the impact of its $1.9tn stimulus plan enacted in March last year. While the White House believes it saved the US from a lacklustre recovery, critics contend that it overheated the economy. Steve Rattner, a former Obama administration official and Wall Street executive, told MSNBC on Wednesday that the US “put too much money in people’s pockets” and “we’re all paying the price”. In response, Gene Sperling, a White House adviser, wrote on Twitter that “some have a curious obsession with exaggerating the impact” of the stimulus, when high inflation was global. Indeed, as well as showing his responsiveness to inflation, many Democrats also want Biden not to be excessively downbeat about economic factors he cannot fully control. “I think we will also continue to try to remind people that it’s totally fair and OK to be upset with inflation, but please, let’s not forget that that’s not the only thing going on in our lives and in our country today,” said Beyer, the Democratic congressman from Virginia. “Let’s fight our way through it but let’s not be discouraged.” More

JOHANNESBURG/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Battered emerging market currencies will struggle to hold on to recent gains towards year-end as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and inflation concerns keep the dollar in the forefront, a Reuters poll found.Barely recovering from a nearly two-year bear run, positive sentiment in emerging market currencies has already been soured by higher U.S. Treasury yields.Last month, safe-haven dollar inflows pushed the emerging markets currency index to its weakest level since end-2020. But it recovered after markets scaled back somewhat on aggressive Fed hike bets, weakening the greenback.A majority of FX strategists in the May 30-June 1 poll said the dollar’s recent weakness would be short-lived and it would strengthen against most emerging market currencies by end-August.”It has been a perfect storm for EM local markets in 2022 – a hawkish Fed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian debt sell-off and a China slowdown,” said Min Dai, FX strategist at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).”While we … hoped at the start of the year that EM could recover in 2022 after a painful 2021, the reality is the opposite.”Almost all past emerging market crises were linked to dollar strength. As the dollar rises, developing countries must tighten monetary policy to head off falls in their own currencies. Not doing so would exacerbate inflation and raise the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt.”The EM story won’t turn constructive unless U.S. inflation starts to turn. Valuations are cheap and positioning is clean, but this is not sufficient for investors to turn constructive,” Dai said.The dollar index strengthened on Wednesday as Treasury yields climbed and worries over a further acceleration in global inflation kept investors’ risk appetite at bay.Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY)’s Phoenix Kalen said the spectre of high and sticky inflation amid a choppy global growth outlook is likely to haunt markets during the near term.That will offer limited opportunities for emerging market assets to decisively break out of recent ranges.STABLE OUTLOOK “The fate of a broad range of EM currencies will be tied to CNY’s (Chinese yuan) behavior in the coming period. Asia FX and EM commodity currencies such as Latam FX and ZAR (South African rand) remain susceptible to near-term weakness, due to their linkages with CNY,” Kalen added.South Africa’s rand has taken on a somewhat stable outlook in comparison to other EM currencies. The high-yielding rand was expected to erase most of its gains made so far this year in the next three months, falling more than 2.0% to 15.65/$.Turkey’s lira is down nearly 20% this year, in addition to the 44% it lost last year, as Turkey’s central bank slashed interest rates even as inflation was soaring. Inflation is expected to reach 76.55% in May.The lira, the worst-performing emerging market currency this year, is set to fall about 9% to 18.00/$ in the next 12 months.Russia’s rouble, which was propped up by capital controls and had artificially risen to become the world’s best-performing currency so far this year, is expected to weaken more than 20% to 76.67/$ in a year.Not all is well in Asia, either. China’s tightly-controlled yuan was predicted to depreciate 1.0% to 6.71 per dollar in a year as analysts warned a shrinking yield gap between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds could trigger capital outflows.The Indian rupee, which hit a record low of 77.73 versus the dollar last month, was expected to hit a fresh low of 78/$ in the next six months. More

AGRA, India (Reuters) – In his small shoe factory in the Indian city of Agra, Rajesh Kumar, his two brothers and three workers have been sitting idle for a week, faced with a dearth of new orders and increasing pressure from surging materials costs.”The cost of synthetic leather, chemicals and other raw material, mostly imported from China, has gone up by over 20% in last three months, while the price of the final product remains same,” the 60-year-old said in his poorly lit two-room factory in the congested back lanes of the Taj Mahal.”We are now unable to earn even a 10 rupee ($0.1) margin on 200 rupee shoes due to the rise in costs,” Kumar said. Before the pandemic, he could earn 20-25 rupees on a pair of shoes.Agra has been India’s biggest shoe making centre since the Mughals ruled from the city centuries ago but Kumar’s small businesses and thousands like it across the country now work on shrinking margins, squeezed by rising commodity prices and weak consumer demand. India’s economy grew at its slowest pace in a year in the first three months of 2022, data showed this week, hit by a fall in manufacturing and weaker consumer spending. Manufacturing contracted 0.2% year-on-year, after a 0.3% expansion in the previous quarter.Small firms, which employ about 110 million Indians and account for 45% of manufacturing, were hit the hardest, casting a cloud over the economic recovery.”Life has become miserable for small businesses,” said K.E. Raghunathan, convenor of the Consortium of Indian Associations, which represents nearly half a million businesses. He is concerned about a 30% rise in costs for the auto-parts, textiles, footwear, food processing, engineering and packaging industries.”Unlike big companies, small businesses – who have little bargaining power and depend on middlemen – are unable to pass on rising costs,” he said.Over 72,000 small businesses in the southern state of Tamil Nadu have shut up shop in the past few months and many others face closure, he said.In western India’s industrial hub of Ahmedabad, Nirav Trivedi’s metalworks business has struggled with a 60% rise in steel and gas costs over six months, forcing him to cut his production and workforce by a third.”Though we have more work compared to the pandemic, profits have slipped to below 8% compared to 20-22% margins earlier,” he said, adding some projects had become economically unviable.Following the GDP data, economists downgraded their growth forecasts for the fiscal year starting April to around 7% from 8.5% to 9% previously.To tame inflation, which hit an eight-year high in April, the central bank last month raised interest rates. It expects the tightening to curb cost pressures and improve prospects for businesses.While India’s factory activity expanded in May, according to a purchasing managers’ index, surging prices remain a major concern.’TOO LITTLE RELIEF’To ease the burden for households, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has offered pandemic relief through free food grain and easy bank credit.However, manufacturers say the state relief was “too little” as prices of energy and raw materials soar along with taxes.Tek Chand Chibrani, secretary of Agra Shoe Factories Association, said the local industry, which employs 400,000 workers, faces falling rural demand and rising costs, though a pick-up in overseas sales partly helped bigger manufacturers.The rupee’s more than 4% decline against the dollar this year has also made imports more expensive, he said, adding to the burdens from rising interest rates.According to market researcher NielsenIQ, rural consumption fell 5.3% in January-March, the largest decline in last three quarters, which has hurt small factories.”There is an increase in the exit of small manufacturers in January-March period due to high input cost pressures, and not being able to pass on the costs to the consumers,” NielsenIQ said.India is the world’s second-largest producer of footwear after China and according to industry estimates, Agra meets nearly 65% of domestic shoe demand and accounts for more than 25% of the country’s $2 billion shoe exports.Ashok Kumar, 45, a worker at another small factory in Agra, said they were now working longer hours to earn about 12,000 rupees ($155) a month while cutting down spending on food, children’s education and other expenses.”I am unable to feed my five children despite working for 12 hours a day,” he said.($1 = 77.5780 Indian rupees) More

Most of the U.S. has been seeing just “slight or modest” economic growth over the past two months or so, according to the Fed’s “Beige Book.”
The report said most districts showed price increases rising at “strong or robust” pace.
The Fed is beginning its “quantitative tightening” program, which technically started Wednesday.

Most of the U.S. has been seeing just “slight or modest” economic growth over the past two months or so, according to a Federal Reserve report released Wednesday.
While all 12 Fed districts reported continued growth, the central bank’s periodic “Beige Book” indicated that four of the regions showed “that the pace of growth had slowed” during the previous period.

The report covers the period from mid-April through about May 22.
In addition to broader views on the economy, the report said most districts showed price increases rising at a “strong or robust” pace. While two districts said “rapid inflation was the continuation of a trend,” three said prices had “moderated somewhat.”
About half the districts reported that companies were still able to pass higher prices on to consumers, though some noted “customer pushback, such as smaller volume purchases or substitution of less expensive brands.”
“Surveys in two Districts pegged year-ahead increases of their selling prices as ranging from 4 to 5 percent; moreover, one District noted that its firms’ price expectations have edged down for two consecutive quarters,” the report stated.

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Also, the report noted some weakness in retail as rising prices bit into sales, as well as housing, which also is being affected by higher interest rates.

“Contacts tended to cite labor market difficulties as their greatest challenge, followed by supply chain disruptions,” the report said. “Rising interest rates, general inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and disruptions from Covid-19 cases (especially in the Northeast) round out the key concerns impacting household and business plans.”
The release comes as the U.S. faces a cloudy economic picture.
First-quarter GDP contracted at a 1.5% annualized pace, and the Atlanta Fed is tracking a second quarter expansion at a 1.3% rate.
And on Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned of darker days ahead, advising analysts and investors to “brace yourself” against a confluence of factors.
One of Dimon’s biggest concerns is the Fed beginning its “quantitative tightening” program, which technically started Wednesday. The central bank is beginning to reduce the $9 trillion in assets it is holding on its balance sheet, a process that disrupted markets and raised growth concerns during its last iteration from 2017 to 2019.
This time around, the Fed is taking an even more aggressive approach, eventually allowing up to $95 billion a month in bond proceeds to roll off each month, starting in September. The initial phase of the program will see up to $47.5 billion roll off.
The Fed also is raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation the U.S. has seen in more than 40 years.
“Shrinking central bank balance sheets add another element of ambiguity to what is already a period of heightened uncertainty,” Jonas Goltermann, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. “After all, QT is something of an experiment: it has only been tried once before in recent times. And central bankers generally seem a lot less sure about how their balance sheet policies affect the economy and financial markets than they are about the impact of raising or lowering interest rates.”
One important element that has kept the economy afloat has been the rapid pace of job gains.
The Beige Book noted that employment was up “modestly or moderately” across all districts, though there were some reports of a slowing or freeze in hiring.
“However, worker shortages continued to force many firms to operate below capacity. In response, firms continued to deploy automation, offer greater job flexibility, and raise wages,” the report said.

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