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    Futures slip as hawkish Fed view weighs on growth stocks

    (Reuters) – U.S. stocks were set to open lower on Friday after mixed earnings, while growth stocks cut some losses in a torrid week marked by surging bond yields as investors braced for higher interest rates.In the previous session, Wall Street closed sharply lower after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell backed moving more quickly to combat inflation and said a 50 basis point (bps) increase would be “on the table” when the Fed meets in May.Powell’s hawkish pivot triggered a selloff in megacap growth stocks such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), which were already reeling under the dismal results from streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) earlier this week. The S&P 500 growth index is down about 16% since hitting a record high in late December, while its value counterpart is trading about 2% below its all-time time.”If we see yields continuing to move higher, it’s going to be a depressant on growth stocks,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. “The market is fearful of the Fed overchoking the inflation fear and causing a rut in corporate earnings in the future.”The prospect of a more hawkish Fed has led to a rocky start to the year for equities, in particular tech and growth shares whose valuations are more vulnerable to rising bond yields.Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc and Meta Platforms Inc edged higher in premarket trading after suffering losses this week.At 08:49 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 117 points, or 0.34%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 11 points, or 0.25%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 5.25 points, or 0.04%.Schlumberger NV (NYSE:SLB) gained 2.3% after reporting a higher first-quarter profit, as rising oil prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosted the demand for oilfield services and equipments.Gap Inc (NYSE:GPS) tumbled 17.4% after the apparel company cut its forecast for quarterly sales, blaming execution challenges at its Old Navy brand and “macro-economic dynamics”. Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ) slipped over 2% after its full-year revenue forecast disappointed.Of the 88 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings for the first quarter, 80.7% of them have beat market expectations as of Thursday. Typically, 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.Investors are awaiting a flash reading on S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) composite PMI data for April after market opens. More

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    Cancelling Netflix won’t solve energy price crunch

    Energy saving tips are an increasingly hot topic — no matter your level of income. Following April’s 54 per cent increase to the energy price cap, I expected my bills to increase, but I wasn’t expecting my monthly direct debit to more than double. My supplier claims this is based on my current usage and will prevent my account from being in the red by the time autumn arrives — at which point, energy prices are forecast to soar further. I’ve challenged the 112 per cent increase, although I could afford to pay it. Others are dealing with the “price shock” of soaring bills by cancelling Netflix subscriptions; AJ Bell has warned people are investing less; retail sales are plummeting and consumer confidence has plunged to a near-record low.But what if you have no slack in your budget?Gemma Hatvani is a woman who knows. Made redundant after working as a business analyst in the energy industry for 16 years, she set up a Facebook group — Energy Support and Advice UK — to help people struggling to pay their bills. “I wanted to give something back, and use my knowledge to help people — and it’s grown and grown,” she says. The group’s 15 full-time volunteers include energy experts and heating engineers advising on how to get bills down — plus what to do if you can’t afford to pay.

    Its community of 50,000 members share tips about the benefits of bleeding radiators, installing timer switches to turn off broadband routers at night and hanging curtains over doorways to stop drafts. However, the heartbreaking extremes some go to to cut their consumption and save money caused the group to go viral this week. “Leave a bowl of water in the sun with a black bin liner on top and it will be warm enough to wash up in later,” was one tip widely shared on Twitter, highlighting the miserable reality of life for those who cannot afford to top up expensive prepayment meters. Hatvani is aware of the increasingly desperate lengths people go to, including going to bed fully dressed, using candles placed on a gas hob to heat food, storing leftover boiled water from the kettle in a Thermos or building a homemade hay box (a thermal cooking technique from the postwar era). “I keep having to remind myself it’s 2022,” she says. “It’s like Bear Grylls out there — we’re talking about survival.” Numbers in the Facebook group have surged since April’s bill hikes, and are set to increase further now that Martin Lewis, founder of Money Saving Expert, has become a member.He has been warning for some time that lower income households will either “freeze or starve” this winter unless more government help is forthcoming. This week, the bosses of the UK’s biggest energy firms told MPs of the “totally horrific” consequences if the price cap rises from £1,971 to the expected level of £2,600 in October. By then, Eon expects up to 40 per cent of its customers to be in fuel poverty — spending more than 10 per cent of their income on energy bills — the House of Commons business, energy and industrial strategy committee heard on Tuesday. Keith Anderson, chief executive of Scottish Power, said the crisis was moving “beyond what I think this industry can deal with”, adding the firm had been contacted by thousands of customers unable to pay their bills since April’s increases, even as consumption falls during the summer months. Chris O’Shea, boss of British Gas owner Centrica, said the number of customers late with payments had risen by 125,000 to 716,000 over the past year.The goings-on in Hatvani’s group are a sober reminder of the toll this is going to take on the personal finances of millions of people. There are hundreds of posts a week now from people who cannot afford huge increases to their direct debits, who are seeking advice about how to challenge energy companies. Hatvani’s sister has seen her unit rate for gas climb by over 600 per cent after coming off a fixed-rate deal. “Her supplier wants £500 a month for gas and electric, which is totally unaffordable and more than her rent,” she says. Faced with huge increases, growing numbers of members are saying that cancelling their direct debit and paying what they can every month is the only way they can still afford to live — despite the dire financial consequences.Expert volunteers point out this will immediately make bills more expensive, wiping out the direct debit discount most suppliers offer, and could prematurely end advantageous fixed-rate deals. As energy debts mount up, Hatvani foresees millions more households being pressed to switch to more expensive prepayment meters, where they are charged for energy usage upfront. This week, she spoke to a young family who had resisted having one installed, only to be issued with a warrant by their supplier to enter their home and fit it (the cost of this will be added to their debts). Commonly used as a debt management tool, 4.5mn UK households pay for their energy at point of use — and if they can’t afford it, the lights will literally go out. “Energy companies love prepayment customers, as they get their money straight away,” she says. The charity National Energy Action has predicted that hundreds of thousands of households will manage the bill shock by voluntarily “self disconnecting” and surviving for days with no heat, power or hot water in an attempt to balance budgets.

    If people are reduced to living like this, you can see what’s feeding the grim trade in tips involving bowls of water and black bin bags.And the squeeze has only just begun. Politicians, energy companies and charities are all crying out for more to be done — but the big question is: what?It’s obvious that measures outlined in the Spring Statement won’t be anywhere near enough for the poorest families to get through the winter. One idea gaining traction is a deeply-discounted “social tariff” for customers considered “vulnerable” or in fuel poverty that would knock £1,000 off annual bills. There are no easy solutions to funding this. A 10-year clawback, imposing a windfall tax on oil and gas companies, scrapping the price cap and charging middle and higher-income households much more for their power have all been suggested this week.With bad debts rising fast, we can’t wait until October to decide. The extreme energy rationing highlighted by this Facebook group should spur those in power to get ahead of the next phase of the crisis well before temperatures start to drop. Claer Barrett is the FT’s consumer editor: [email protected]; Twitter @Claerb; Instagram @ClaerbThis article is the latest part of the FT’s Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign More

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    Powell Lifts Dollar, Russia's Ambitions, China Oil Demand – What's Moving Markets

    Investing.com — Risk-off sentiment pervades global markets as Jerome Powell nails on a 50 basis point rate hike in May. The dollar surges against the pound and the yuan, in particular, as rate hike bets intensify. Oil prices tumble on growing fears about the impact of China’s Zero-COVID policy on national demand. Russia signals it intends to completely dismember Ukraine. Gap stock tumbles after a profit warning and AB InBev is also struggling after confirming a $1 billion hit from exiting its Russia business. Verizon, Amex, and Schlumberger head the list of quarterly reports due. Here’s what you need to know in financial markets on Friday, 22nd April.1. Dollar, bond yields rise after Powell commentsThe dollar surged again overnight and benchmark 10-year bond yields flirted with the 3% level after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but confirmed that the central bank will raise its key rate by 50 basis points at its May meeting.Powell had called the U.S. labor market “unsustainably hot” in comments on the sidelines of the IMF’s spring meeting on Thursday, endorsing the assessment given by many other senior Fed officials in the last couple of weeks.By 6:15 AM ET, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had eased off to trade at 2.94%, down from an overnight high of 2.97%. The 2-Year yield, more sensitive to short-term interest rate expectations, had risen as high as 2.77% and only eased off marginally to 2.76%.In foreign exchange markets, the dollar index rose 0.4%, while the greenback also surged against the offshore Chinese yuan, which is on course for its worst week since 2015 as the country grapples with a pandemic-driven slowdown.2. Russia aims at conquest of southern UkraineRussia’s armed forces intend to conquer all of southern Ukraine, creating a contiguous zone of control stretching all the way to Ukraine’s border with Moldova, according to a briefing by senior military officials.The plans would deny Ukraine control of any of its ports, cutting access to world markets for its key agricultural and industrial exports. They contrast sharply with President Vladimir Putin’s assertions before his invasion that he didn’t plan any occupation of Ukraine and are a conspicuous expansion of Russia’s war aims from only a week ago when it said it wanted to concentrate on ‘liberating’ the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.Separately, a pro-Kremlin news site posted, then withdrew, a report citing a closed Defense Ministry briefing that Russia had lost over 20,000 soldiers killed and missing in action since its invasion in February.3. Stocks set to open lower; Gap slumps; Verizon, Amex earnings dueU.S. stocks are set to open in downbeat mood again later, extending Thursday’s heavy losses on the prospect of an aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy, even as signs start to emerge of the economy slowing down.By 6:20 AM ET, Dow Jones futures were down 140 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures were down 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down in parallel. All three major cash indices had fallen by over 1% on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.1%.Stocks likely to be in focus later include Gap (NYSE:GPS), which slumped 13.5% in premarket after lowering its forecasts for the current quarter, and AB InBev (EBR:ABI), which said it will take a hit of $1.1 billion as it writes down the 24% stake it holds in a Russian joint venture. Also in focus will be Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), after lawmakers in Florida voted to end its special tax status in the state.Companies set to report earnings include Verizon (NYSE:VZ), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Newmont Goldcorp (NYSE:NEM) and Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), while German software maker SAP (NYSE:SAP) fell short overnight with its quarterly figures, which also included a hit from a hasty Russian exit.4. Services rescue Eurozone economy in April; U.K. retail sales plungeThe Eurozone economy held up better than expected in April, as a reopening service sector compensated for a manufacturing sector laboring ever more under the weight of supply chain disruptions, sky-high energy costs and the other knock-on effects of war in Ukraine.S&P Global’s Eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index rose to 55.8 in April, indicating that the post-COVID expansion is still safe in the short term.In the U.K., meanwhile, retail sales slumped in March and consumer confidence in April fell to its lowest since the depths of the 2008-9 financial crisis, against a backdrop of higher fuel prices and a 30-year high in inflation. The pound fell over 1% to $1.2887.5. Oil falls as COVID hits China demand; rig count eyedOil prices fell some 2% overnight as fresh evidence emerged of the sharp drop in Chinese demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns which continue to plague the country.Bloomberg reported that the country’s oil demand has fallen by around 1.2 million barrels a day in April, with demand for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline falling by around 20% from year-earlier levels. Gasoline demand in eastern China, the country’s economic heart, has fallen some 40% this month, the agency quoted unnamed industry officials as saying.By 6:30 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were down 2% at $101.72 a barrel, while Brent was down 1.6% at $106.58 a barrel.The Baker Hughes rig count and the CFTC’s positioning data round off the week later, as usual. More

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    Gold heads for weekly fall as rising bond yields, dollar weigh

    (Reuters) – Gold prices fell on Friday as the prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes boosted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, denting zero-yielding bullion’s appeal and setting prices on track for their first weekly decline in three. Spot gold was down 0.44% to $1,942.91 per ounce at 1005 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $1,945.20. “We are dealing with the global economy where interest rate hike expectations continue to move up, as a result yields are moving higher and the dollar is trading stronger, all potential strong challenges to gold at this point,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. However, “gold is holding within the established range… The reason being the market is worried that these very strong expectations for rate hikes in the U.S. may lead to a bigger than expected economic slowdown.”U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday a half-point interest rate increase “will be on the table” when the central bank meets in May and that it would be appropriate to “be moving a little more quickly.”Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields extended gains on the Fed’s hawkish tone on tightening policy in its effort to tame soaring inflation. Meanwhile the dollar index scaled a fresh peak since March 2020. [USD/] [US/] Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates and higher yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.Gold is down about 1.3% so far this week. Prices rose to near the key mark of $2,000 per ounce on Monday on safe-haven demand and mounting worries over inflation, only to pull back and hit a two-week low on Thursday. Spot silver fell 1.8% to $24.19 per ounce and was headed for its biggest weekly fall since late January. Platinum slipped 1.3% to $955.28 per ounce and palladium was 1.4% lower at $2,388.21. More

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    Surging US inflation expectations defy Fed’s efforts to tame price growth

    Investors’ expectations for US inflation have shot to their highest level in decades even as the Federal Reserve signals an aggressive tightening of monetary policy is imminent, underscoring the challenge central banks face in convincing markets they can tame runaway price growth.A historic bond rout has intensified this week as officials from both the Fed and the European Central Bank stepped up their inflation-fighting rhetoric. But the hawkish message has done little to arrest a rise in long-term inflation expectations, which are watched closely by central bankers concerned that they can become self-fulfilling.The US 10-year break-even — a closely watched gauge of market inflation expectations over the next decade — climbed to 3.08 per cent on Friday, the highest level in at least two decades.The move came after Fed chair Jay Powell said at an IMF panel that “it is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly” to combat inflation, which is currently running at the fastest pace in 40 years.“Central bankers seem to be at this point of maximum pressure on inflation,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management. “The market is giving the message that you were complacent on inflation for too long, it’s time to get on with it.”Markets are now pricing in extra-large 0.5 percentage point rate rises at each of the Fed’s next three meetings.Even so, Powell has also pushed back against the idea that the Fed will need to provoke a recession in order to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target, saying on Thursday that a “soft landing” for the economy remains the central bank’s goal. That message has left some investors wondering whether the Fed will allow inflation to remain elevated for longer, according to analysts at Barclays.Very high inflation expectations in markets are in part a reflection of the current rate of consumer price rises in the US, which reached 8.5 per cent in March following a surge in the cost of energy and food. But even five-year five-year inflation swaps, a different measure favoured by central bankers which strips out current inflation levels and looks at the second half of the next 10 years, have hit their highest since 2014 at 2.84 per cent.The picture is similar in the eurozone where five-year five-year inflation trades at 2.45 per cent, the highest since 2013. ECB president Christine Lagarde suggested on Thursday that the bloc’s bank will be less aggressive than the Fed in acting to tame inflation as she appeared alongside Powell at the IMF panel.Still, recent comments from some the ECB president’s colleagues have alerted markets to the possibility of earlier tightening than previously thought. Vice-president Luis de Guindos said earlier this week that a rate increase — the ECB’s first since 2011 — could come as early as July.German two-year bond yields, which are highly sensitive to ECB rate expectations, climbed to their highest level since 2013 on Friday. More

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    Holcim shares surge after guidance upgrade and earnings beat

    ZURICH (Reuters) -Holcim raised its full-year sales outlook on Friday after posting forecast-beating first quarter results, helped by price hikes to offset surging energy costs and new acquisitions in its roofing business.The Swiss company’s shares rose 6% in early trade after it exceeded analysts’ expectations for sales and earnings, a performance that also reassured investors about its ability to pass on cost inflation to customers.”We had a fantastic quarter,” Holcim (SIX:HOLN) CEO Jan Jenisch told reporters, after sales rose 20% to 6.44 billion Swiss francs ($6.74 billion), topping forecasts for 6.1 billion francs in a company-gathered consensus of analysts.”I would say pricing and acquisitions both had the same effect, both around 10%, and then we had a slight volume increase especially in aggregates and ready mix concrete and also roofing systems,” he said.The company, which is quitting Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, is the latest to hike its prices to offset rising energy, transport and labour costs.Food companies Nestle and Danone as well as engineering company ABB said earlier this week they have taken similar action to prevent profits being squeezed.”We believe we are in a good situation for the challenging cost inflation and when you look at the volumes we are very confident,” Jenisch said.DEMAND SEEN STRONGDemand would also continue to be strong, Jenisch said, citing increasing populations and the need to repair and refurbish crumbling infrastructure. Holcim posted earnings before interest and tax of 614 million Swiss francs ($644.21 million), 16% up from a year earlier and well ahead of the 443 million francs forecast.It said it now expects to increase sales this year by at least 8% on a like-for-like basis, which cuts out the impact of acquisitions and divestments and currency swings. Previously Holcim said it expected a 6% increase.The upgrade pushed Holcim to be the top performer on the Stoxx Europe 600 Construction Index, and also boosted shares in peers including Germany’s HeidelbergCement (ETR:HEIG) and France’s Saint-Gobain.”Solid volume growth, price increases, and lower depreciation charges offset cost inflation, resulting in positive EBIT growth also on a like for like basis,” said Vontobel analyst Bernd Pomrehn, cheering the Holcim results. Holcim last year bought Firestone Building Products for $3.4 billion and Malarkey Roofing Products in a $1.35 billion deal as it seeks to reduce its reliance on cement and expand into building systems and products.($1 = 0.9553 Swiss francs) More

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    Special Report-How crypto giant Binance built ties to a Russian FSB-linked agency

    VILNIUS (Reuters) – In April 2021, Russia’s financial intelligence unit met in Moscow with the regional head of Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. The Russians wanted Binance to agree to hand over client data, including names and addresses, to help them fight crime, according to text messages the company official sent to a business associate.At the time, the agency, known as Rosfinmonitoring or Rosfin, was seeking to trace millions of dollars in bitcoin raised by jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, a person familiar with the matter said. Navalny, whose network Rosfinmonitoring added that month to a list of terrorist organisations, said the donations were used to finance efforts to expose corruption inside President Vladimir Putin’s government.Binance’s head of Eastern Europe and Russia, Gleb Kostarev, consented to Rosfin’s request to agree to share client data, the messages showed. He told the business associate that he didn’t have “much of a choice” in the matter. Kostarev didn’t comment for this article. Binance told Reuters it had never been contacted by Russian authorities regarding Navalny. It said that before the war it was “actively seeking compliance in Russia,” which would have required it to respond to “appropriate requests from regulators and law enforcement agencies.”The encounter, which has not been previously reported, was part of behind-the-scenes efforts by Binance to build ties with Russian government agencies as it sought to boost its growing business in the country, Reuters reporting shows. This account of those efforts is based on interviews with over 10 people familiar with Binance’s operations in Russia, including former employees, ex-business partners and crypto industry executives, and a review of text messages that Kostarev sent to people outside the company.Binance has continued to operate in Russia since Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, despite requests from the government in Kyiv to Binance and other exchanges to ban Russian users. Other major payment and fintech companies, such as PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) and American Express (NYSE:AXP), have halted services in Russia since the Kremlin launched what it calls a “special operation” to demilitarise and “denazify” Ukraine. One of Binance’s main rivals in Russia, EXMO.com, said on Monday it would no longer serve Russian and Belarusian clients and was selling its Russia business. Some smaller crypto exchanges remain.CEO Changpeng Zhao, widely known by his initials CZ, has said he is against the war and “politicians, dictators that start the wars” but not against “the people on both sides of Ukraine and Russia that are suffering.” Zhao didn’t comment for this article. Binance referred Reuters to Zhao’s previous statements on the matter.Legal representatives for Binance told Reuters that “active engagement with the Russian government has now stopped due to the conflict.” On Thursday Binance told users it was limiting services for major clients in Russia because of the latest European Union sanctions on Moscow.Binance’s trading volumes in Russia have boomed since the war began, data from a top industry research firm shows, as Russians turned to crypto to protect their assets from Western sanctions and a devaluing rouble. In one recent message to an industry contact, Kostarev said Binance’s priority was to ensure the market stayed open, so the exchange wasn’t “making a fuss.” He didn’t elaborate.Asked by Reuters to clarify Kostarev’s message, Binance said the war and economic crisis could accelerate crypto’s adoption among working-class Russian citizens looking for alternative payment means. Binance added that it is aggressively applying sanctions imposed by Western governments, but would not unilaterally “freeze millions of innocent users’ accounts.” GRAPHIC: Binance in Russia’s war – https://graphics.reuters.com/FINTECH-CRYPTO/mopanbbnava/chart.png THE FREEDOM OF MONEYSince its launch five years ago in Shanghai, Binance has grown to dominate the unregulated Russian crypto sector with an estimated four-fifths of all trading volumes, market data shows. Binance said it doesn’t comment on “external data projections” and, as a private company, doesn’t share such information publicly.Zhao, in 2019, told Russians that Binance’s mission there was to increase the “freedom of money” and “protect users.” Russians flocked to the platform, seeing it as an alternative to a banking system closely monitored by a state they distrusted.In line with a draft law to regulate crypto companies, Binance agreed with Rosfinmonitoring to set up a local unit in Russia through which authorities can request client data, the Kostarev messages reviewed by Reuters show. Asked whether it had proceeded to set up this local unit, Binance responded, “Should we consider establishing a local entity in Russia in the future, Binance will never share data without a legitimate law enforcement request.”Navalny’s chief of staff, Leonid Volkov, told Reuters that Russia’s proposed regulatory framework could let the Kremlin identify the opposition group’s crypto donors. Since Navalny’s arrest in January 2021, his anti-corruption foundation has publicly encouraged backers to donate via Binance, telling them this was the safest way to do so because, unlike with bank transfers, authorities would not know donors’ identities.”These people will be in danger,” said Volkov, who runs the foundation from Lithuania. If Binance wants to protect its customers, Volkov went on, it should “never do anything with the Russian government.” The Kremlin declined to comment on Navalny’s crypto fundraising or Binance’s operations.In response to Reuters’ questions, Binance said that before the war it was supportive of legislation that would bring clarity to regulation. But the Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions on many Russian banks had made it “virtually impossible for any platform to initiate or consider future plans in the region.”People close to Binance said it supported the draft law because, once passed, crypto exchanges would be required to partner with Russian banks, allowing customers to deposit and trade significantly more funds.The finance ministry said in early April it had finished drafting its “bill on the regulation of digital currencies.” People involved in the discussions say the government wants to move quickly to write the bill into law. One lawmaker told parliament’s official newspaper last month the crypto legislation would help mitigate damage to the Russian economy from sanctions.Among the agencies helping develop the law is Rosfinmonitoring, responsible for combating money laundering and terrorist financing. Though nominally independent, it acts as an arm of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, five people who have interacted with Rosfin said. Rosfin’s director, Yury Chikhanchin, is a security services veteran, according to his official biography.Marshall Billingslea, a former head of the Financial Action Task Force, a global watchdog which sets standards for authorities combating financial crime, told a conference last year that Rosfin was “firmly under control of the FSB” to ensure that only state-sanctioned transactions were made into and out of Russia. Billingslea said it was “no surprise” to see Rosfin declare Navalny’s network a terrorist organisation after his arrest.Rosfin, in a written response to Reuters’ questions, said it fully complies with international standards of operational independence in areas including regulating the activities of virtual asset service providers. Chikhanchin didn’t comment.At least one other crypto exchange did not agree to provide client data to Rosfin due to concerns about how the information could be used and the FSB’s influence on the unit, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Others in Russia’s crypto sector said they were also sceptical about the draft law.”No one knows if the proposed local office system will be used for good or bad,” said Mike Bystroff, a partner at the Moscow-based Digital Rights Center law firm, who represented Binance when it successfully challenged a ban on its website in January 2021.Binance’s willingness to engage with Rosfin through 2021 contrasted with its approach elsewhere. Some national regulators have accused the company of withholding information. Britain’s regulator said in August last year a Binance UK unit was “not capable of being effectively supervised” after it refused to answer questions about Binance’s global business. Liechtenstein’s regulator, in a 2020 report, said Binance’s dealings with the body were “non-transparent” as it declined to provide financial information on request. In an article published in January, Reuters reported that Binance cancelled plans to seek a licence in Malta in 2019 due to Zhao’s concerns about the level of financial disclosure required.Lawyers for Binance said it was “false equivalency” to conflate “distinct issues of our client’s responsiveness to law enforcement disclosure requests, with licensing applications for its own business that would involve wholly different types of disclosures.” Binance said it was “the most active participant in the industry” working with law enforcement to “develop best practices, mitigate/thwart new methods of criminality and prevent illicit proceeds from entering the marketplace.”Binance said any suggestion that it refuses to share data with authorities making legitimate requests is “absolutely false.” It said it has strict policies and procedures to assess such requests and reserves the right to decline “when there is no legal purpose.””DON’T BE AFRAID”Zhao first travelled to Russia as Binance CEO in October 2019. At a tech forum in Moscow, he told an audience to stop being “a slave” to traditional finance. His slideshow cited the 18th century philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau: “A man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.”Binance targeted Russia for expansion, noting in a 2018 blog post the country’s “hyperactive” crypto community. The exchange partnered with Belize-based payment company Advcash to enable users to deposit and withdraw roubles using bank cards. Advcash said the partnership is still active.Binance gradually took a commanding share of the Russian crypto market. By mid-2021, Binance’s trading volumes in Russia had made it the exchange’s second-largest market globally after China, including among “VIP” clients who trade large amounts of crypto, a person with direct knowledge of the company’s data said. In March this year, Binance processed almost 80% of all rouble-to-crypto trades, according to data from researcher CryptoCompare, worth some 85 billion roubles ($1.1 billion).”People just trusted it. It was always a step ahead of competitors,” said Maksim Sukhonosik, a Russian crypto trader and co-founder of blockchain consulting firm Colibri Group.However, in 2020, Binance began drawing the attention of Russian authorities, who were at the time hostile to cryptocurrencies. Russia’s communications watchdog banned its website for allegedly carrying prohibited material about buying crypto. Binance challenged the decision in court and the ban was withdrawn in January 2021, according to statements Binance posted in its Telegram group for Russian users.Binance told Reuters the lawsuit was dismissed on procedural grounds because the firm wasn’t properly notified. The regulator did not respond to requests to comment.Navalny was arrested that month on his return to Russia, after recovering from poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok. He, along with the U.S. and British governments, blamed the FSB for the attack, an accusation Russia rejects. The FSB did not respond to questions for this article.A core part of Russian prosecutors’ case against Navalny was the financing of his foundation. At his trial, they accused him of stealing over 350 million roubles, then worth some $4.8 million, that the foundation received as donations. Navalny denied the charge. Volkov told Reuters that security forces interrogated thousands of supporters who donated through Russian banks. None of these donors had used digital currencies, he said.Navalny’s crypto fundraising surged after his arrest. The more than 670 bitcoin that supporters have donated via Binance and other exchanges would now be worth almost $28 million, according to blockchain data, though Volkov said the real amount raised is less because the bitcoins were sold upon receipt at a lower price.When a Russian court outlawed Navalny’s foundation in June 2021, ruling it to be an “extremist organisation,” the network told supporters on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) to “learn how to use cryptocurrencies” and recommended they open Binance accounts. In a later how-to guide, the foundation advised donors to upload identity cards to Binance to verify their accounts, noting there were no instances yet of any crypto exchange providing information to Russian authorities. “You don’t need to be afraid,” the guide said.After the explosion in Navalny’s bitcoin donations, the FSB started exploring how to identify his crypto donors, according to the person familiar with the matter. The FSB, the person said, instructed Rosfin to find a way to achieve that goal. Responding to questions from Reuters, Rosfin said it is prohibited from disclosing measures to combat terrorist financing. It said Navalny was involved in “terrorist activity.”GRAPHIC: Rouble riches – https://graphics.reuters.com/FINTECH-CRYPTO/zjpqkddkdpx/chart.png “OUT OF THE SHADOWS”In April 2021, a Russian non-profit organisation called the Digital Economy Development Fund invited Binance to a private meeting with Rosfin at a government building in Moscow, according to the invitation seen by Reuters. The organisation is headed by a former top advisor to Putin on internet policy, German Klimenko, and was set up in 2019 to develop Russian technologies. The fund’s website says one of its partners is the Russian trade and industry ministry. Kostarev, the Binance director, chairs the fund’s committee on digital currencies.Neither the Digital Economy Development Fund nor Klimenko responded to emails seeking comment.Another exchange, OKX, originally Chinese but now based in the Seychelles, was also invited, a person familiar with the meeting said. An OKX spokesperson said the company declined the invitation, without giving a reason.At the meeting, according to Kostarev’s messages, Rosfin said it wanted exchanges to register with the agency so they could receive its requests for client information. Kostarev wrote to the business associate to say he didn’t view the demand as a problem. He told the associate the FSB was interested in crypto, too. He didn’t elaborate.Asked about Kostarev’s meeting with Rosfin, Binance said, “We did not work with, collaborate, nor partner with that organization.” Five months later, Rosfin sent Binance a questionnaire, reviewed by Reuters, seeking more information on the exchange’s background checks on clients and its “preferred channel of communication” with authorities for requests on crypto transactions. Asked about this communication, the firm said, “Binance takes its compliance obligations seriously and welcomes opportunities to consult with regulators.”Kostarev told the business associate in a message around the time of the questionnaire that Binance was stepping up efforts to engage with the government on crypto regulation. Rosfin was prepared to support Binance in this, Kostarev wrote.But the Russian central bank was opposed to Moscow regulating cryptocurrencies and allowing the market to flourish out of concern that it would encourage criminal activity. Many of the world’s central banks, whose mission includes controlling money supply, have similar qualms about the wild world of crypto. Governor Elvira Nabiullina told Russia’s parliament in November “a responsible state should not stimulate their distribution.” A spokeswoman for the central bank declined to comment.In January of this year, Binance announced it had hired a senior central bank official, Olga Goncharova, as a director for the Greater Russia region. Goncharova would build “systematic interaction” with authorities in Russia, Binance said. After Nabiullina proposed a ban on crypto use on Russian territory later that month, Kostarev told the business associate in a message that Binance was “in a war” with the central bank. All other Russian government agencies wanted to legalise digital currencies, Kostarev said. Support for crypto was indeed building in Moscow. Following Nabiullina’s call for a ban, a top official at the finance ministry publicly backed the law that would require crypto exchanges to turn over names of their customers, saying it was necessary to ensure “transparency.”Putin then intervened. In a televised meeting with ministers on Jan. 26, he asked the government and central bank to reach a “unanimous opinion” on crypto regulation. He noted Russia had “certain competitive advantages” in the sector, such as surplus electricity, the most crucial input for the power-hungry creation of cryptocurrency.Two weeks later, the government approved a plan for crypto regulation, drawn up by agencies including Rosfin and the FSB, that would bring the “industry out of the shadows.”Kostarev tweeted in response to an article on the announcement, “Finally some good news.”In a document describing the proposed regulatory framework, the government said that without such a system law enforcement “will not be able to respond effectively to offences and crimes.” The government would create a database of cryptocurrency wallets related to terrorism financing, the government said, and exchanges would have to disclose information about their customers to Rosfin. The finance ministry submitted an early version of the draft law on Feb. 18.Six days later, Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Binance’s rouble trading exploded as Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia and the Kremlin limited foreign currency withdrawals. CryptoCompare’s data shows Binance’s average daily volume for rouble transactions for the initial three weeks of the war was almost four times higher than during the month before.On Binance’s Russian Telegram group, some volunteer customer representatives, known as Binance Angels, endorsed traders’ posts thanking Binance for not blocking accounts, including one message asking Binance not to “fall for this war crap.” Binance has enlisted hundreds of Angels around the world to promote the exchange to local crypto traders.”Binance does not interfere in politics,” one Angel wrote. Binance told Reuters that Angels are not spokespeople for the company.Binance also drew praise from Putin’s United Russia party. One lawmaker, Alexander Yakubovsky, speaking to the official parliament newspaper on March 14, called Binance the “leading experts in our country” advising politicians on crypto regulation. The company “is under strong pressure from countries unfriendly to Russia,” he said. Binance said they had never met or communicated with Yakubovsky and his opinions were his own.($1 = 78.2830 roubles)( More

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    Bundesbank warns Russian gas embargo would cost Germany €180bn

    An immediate EU ban on Russian gas imports would cost Germany €180bn in lost output this year, the country’s powerful central bank has warned. The Bundesbank said in its latest monthly bulletin, published on Friday, that an embargo on Russian gas would dent gross domestic product by 5 per cent in 2022, triggering a surge in energy prices and one of the deepest recessions of recent decades. The central bank’s estimate is far gloomier than those of academic economists and is likely to revive a fierce debate over how equipped the eurozone’s economic powerhouse is to manage without Russian gas. Ukraine’s government, European policymakers and academics have argued that sales of gas, oil and coal to the west have stabilised the Russian economy and helped finance President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. The EU will ban Russian coal imports from August, but gas deliveries are set to continue. Last month, a group of nine university economists termed the fallout of a full energy embargo “manageable”, saying it would dent Germany’s GDP by just 0.3 to 3 per cent. However, industry executives have warned the impact would be more severe. BASF chief executive Martin Brudermüller said a sudden stop of Russian gas deliveries could destroy Germany’s “entire economy” and could trigger the worst economic crisis since 1945. Politicians have also rejected the claims the economic hit would be minor, with German chancellor Olaf Scholz labelling the estimates “wrong” and “irresponsible”. Economics minister Robert Habeck said Germany will wean itself off Russian gas by 2024. At the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington on Thursday, US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen called for the EU to be “careful” about banning Russian energy imports, warning of the harm such a move could inflict on the global economy.Chancellor Olaf Scholz is among those who have rejected the claims the economic hit would be minor © Clemens Bilan/EPA/ShutterstockBefore the war in Ukraine, Russia accounted for 55 per cent of all German gas imports, according to figures from the German government. More than a third of that gas is consumed by the manufacturing sector. In the chemical industry, gas is needed not just to generate electricity and heat, but also to make chemicals derived from hydrocarbons.Under German law, industrial users would be cut off from gas deliveries first should supply fall short of demand, with households who use it for heating and warm water generation getting preferential treatment. The German government last month took the first formal steps towards the rationing of gas.In its simulation, the Bundesbank assumed that industrial consumers could not replace Russian gas with alternative energy sources for three quarters in a row. In such a scenario, inflation — which, at 7.3 per cent, is already at a post-reunification high — would shoot up by another 1.5 percentage points this year, exacerbating the threat of stagflation, where strong price pressures are coupled with weak growth.The 5 per cent hit to growth would push the German economy into one of the biggest post-financial crisis recessions, as overall GDP would shrink by 2 per cent. The European Central Bank’s latest forecasts, made in March, estimated growth of 3 per cent. Germany’s economy shrank by 5.7 per cent in 2009, and by 4.6 per cent in 2020. The Bundesbank cautioned that its estimates were subject to a very high degree of uncertainty, because it was unclear if standard macro models were able to catch all the knock-on effects that might be triggered by such an unprecedented disruption in energy supplies. More