Economy

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Global investors are scooping up stakes in cryptocurrency funds and companies, as they seek exposure to a sector many believe could withstand the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Research firm Fundstrat, in its latest note to clients, said venture capital (VC) buyers invested around $4 billion in the crypto space in the last three weeks of February. VCs poured in another $400 million to start-ups in the sector last week, data showed.The VC investment is consistent with broad weekly inflows. Since the beginning of the year, weekly investments in the industry have been averaging anywhere between $800 million to about $2 billion, Fundstrat data showed.New crypto funds also raised nearly $3 billion over the last two weeks as of Friday, the most so far this year.”The conflict in Ukraine has weaponized our financial and digital economy and really accelerated blockchain adoption,” said Paul Hsu, founder and chief executive officer of Decasonic, a $50-million hybrid fund investing in both digital assets and venture capital. He added that there’s demand of up to $200 million to invest in his fund.”We are seeing a re-allocation to crypto and blockchain away from real estate and bond funds, for instance, because of higher interest rates. I’ve seen this with my funds but unfortunately, because I’m closed-end, I cannot admit more funds nor investors,” Hsu said.Refinitiv Lipper data showed that U.S. investors pulled a net $7.8 billion out of bond funds in the week to March 9.Real estate funds saw net outflows of $707 million in the same period, after posting outflows worth $1.15 billion the previous week. “Crypto native companies are still raising at very high valuations and many funding rounds are still oversubscribed,” said George Melka, chief executive officer at crypto broker SFOX. “In fact, crypto startup valuations are probably the highest I’ve seen.”Bain Capital Ventures, a unit of private equity firm Bain Capital, for instance, announced early last week that it is launching a $560 million fund focused exclusively on crypto-related investment.Crypto assets have outperformed traditional risk-on assets such as stocks during the crisis. Bitcoin rose 12.2% last month, while ether gained 8.8%. Since bottoming on Feb. 24 when Russia invaded Ukraine, the digital currencies have gained 14.5% and 13.5%, respectively, while the S&P 500 rose just 3.2%.CAPITAL INFLOWS, HEDGE FUND RETURNSCrypto investment products and funds saw $163 million in new institutional money in the two weeks to March 4, while inflows into blockchain equities totaled about $15.6 million, according to data from asset manager CoinShares.The inflows of $127 million were the largest seen so far this year. Flows into the crypto sector turned positive in late January, after five straight weeks of outflows, CoinShares data showed.Crypto fund returns have stabilized.The BarclayHedge cryptocurrency traders index was down at 1.5% for the month of February, according to data posted on Monday, with 39 funds reporting or about 43% of the total crypto asset managers it tracks. In January the index fell nearly 13% and in December it fell 10%. “There’s really no panic even with the Ukraine conflict,” said Joe DiPasquale, chief executive officer at BitBull Capital, which manages a crypto fund of funds and two hedge funds.BitBull’s two hedge funds, which employ market-neutral strategies, were up on the year, DiPasquale said, benefiting from the recovery of bitcoin and ether in the month of February.”People are starting funds, encouraged by the appreciation in prices over the last couple of years,” he said. More

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Bank of England are talking to the London Metal Exchange about the resumption of a fair and orderly market in nickel, the FCA said on Monday.The LME was forced to halt nickel trading and cancel trades after prices doubled on Tuesday, March 8, to more than $100,000 per tonne after China’s Tsingshan Holding Group bought large amounts to reduce its short positions in the metal.”As a regulated investment exchange, the LME is responsible for the maintenance of fair and orderly markets,” the FCA said in response to a Reuters request for comment.”This may include taking steps such as a temporary suspension of trading at times of extreme price volatility.”The LME also deferred physical delivery of maturing contracts and announced it would temporarily stop publishing official and closing nickel prices.But the unprecedented measures have drawn the ire of nickel producers and traders who rely on LME prices of the metal used to make stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries.”The lack of knowledge on the full extent of the crisis-at-hand, nor the timeline for the LME’s resumption of trading, are creating major financial and reputational repercussions,” said Pierre Gratton, president of the The Mining Association of Canada (MAC), in a letter to the LME seen by Reuters on Monday.”The longer that this suspension remains in place, and without a clear, publicly communicated action plan, the more demand destruction for nickel.”The LME had anticipated nickel trading would restart on Friday, but the criteria for restarting had not then been met.MAC members include major mining companies such as BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) and Vale. Canada accounts for 6% of global nickel production. Tsingshan said on Monday it has reached an agreement with lenders under which they will not make margin calls on or close out the producer’s nickel positions on the LME.The FCA regulates the trading activities of the London Metal Exchange (LME) as a UK Recognised Investment Exchange and the Bank of England regulates the clearing activities of LME Clear as a Recognised UK Central Counterparty. More

Motorists were warned on Monday of a near-doubling of the cost of diesel at the pumps from existing record levels in the fallout of the war in Ukraine, as pressure mounted on Rishi Sunak, UK chancellor, to intervene.Experts told MPs on the House of Commons Treasury select committee that fuel prices could continue to soar, with the possibility that diesel hits £3 a litre and also raised the risk that rationing might be required.Sunak will next week address the growing cost-of-living crisis in a spring financial statement, with Tory MPs urging him to cut fuel duty to help offset the cost of motoring.The chancellor has given no indication to Tory MPs that he will yield to their request; he would rather wait until his autumn Budget to see how fuel and energy prices evolve.But Sunak may feel obliged to offer some help to motorists now — including “white van” drivers, for whom fuel costs form a major part of their business outgoings — as Tory pressure mounts.Dr Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects, told MPs that industrial usage of diesel could keep prices high, saying they could go to “£2.50 — even closer to £3, just depending on how high oil prices get”. She warned rationing may be needed. Diesel prices have hit more than £1.70 a litre in parts of the UK.There are concerns about a supply crunch after prime minister Boris Johnson ordered an end to all Russian oil imports by the end of the year. Britain obtains about 8 per cent of oil from Russia but that rises to 18 per cent for diesel.Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec, told MPs the oil price shock was similar to the one in the 1970s, but that it would be accompanied by higher prices for other goods such as food and gas.“We’ve got to be up front, this is going to last for a while,” he told MPs. “Maybe it moderates, but this is going to be a cost-of-living crisis for people for a long time to come.”Sunak is under pressure to use a VAT “windfall” on rapidly rising fuel prices — the tax is levied at 20 per cent on sales — to cut fuel duty by 5p a litre. The chancellor’s aides declined to comment.RAC spokesperson Simon Williams said: “Our calculations show Rishi can afford a 5p-a-litre cut in fuel duty — thanks to all the extra money being made from the VAT element which is slapped on top of the pump price.”Piper said: “If more stringent actions are imposed on Russia and 5mn barrels a day is truly taken out of the market, then oil prices would really have no ceiling.” Asked how high the cost of fuel in the UK could go, he replied: “Not to be flippant but pick a number.”Sunak will also come under pressure later this year to help households facing further huge increases in domestic gas bills, with some predicting the current price cap of £1,277 will rise to about £3,000 in October. More

The Federal Reserve is facing the fastest inflation most Americans have ever seen. Its chair says policymakers will do what it takes to tame prices.To Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker is more than a predecessor. He is one of his professional heroes.“I knew Paul Volcker,” Mr. Powell said during congressional testimony this month. “I think he was one of the great public servants of the era — the greatest economic public servant of the era.”Now, if rapid inflation proves more stubborn than policymakers expect, Mr. Powell could find himself in a situation in which he must follow Mr. Volcker’s lead. The towering former Fed chair is best remembered for waging an aggressive — and painful — assault on the swift price increases that plagued America in the early 1980s.Mr. Volcker’s Fed rolled out policies that pushed a key short-term interest rate to nearly 20 percent and sent unemployment soaring to nearly 11 percent in 1981. Car dealers mailed the Fed keys from unsold vehicles, builders sent two-by-fours from unbuilt houses and farmers drove tractors around the Fed building in Washington in protest. But the approach worked, killing off the rapid price inflation that had festered throughout the 1970s.Mr. Powell was asked this month if the Fed was prepared to do whatever it took to control inflation — even if it meant harming growth, as Mr. Volcker did.“I hope that history will record that the answer to your question is yes,” the Fed chair replied.Few, if any, economists think that the 2022 Fed will need to repeat Mr. Volcker’s policies to the same degree, in part because the central bank is taking action much more quickly. The Fed is expected to begin raising interest rates from near zero at its meeting this week, and is likely to signal that it expects to make a series of moves this year as it tries to cool down the economy and control inflation.Price increases had run high for more than a decade by the time Mr. Volcker became chair in 1979, making them a part of everyday lives. Shoppers expected prices to go up, businesses knew that, and both acted accordingly.This time, inflation has been anemic for years (until recently), and most consumers and investors still expect costs to return to lower levels before long, survey and market data show. While inflation has been rapid for the past year, that is a comparatively short period and one that may not fuel the same kind of expectations for higher prices that bedeviled Mr. Volcker’s era.And while today’s inflation is taking a bite out of household budgets, it is slower than in previous periods: While it rose to 7.9 percent in February, the fastest pace since 1982, it is still well below a peak of 14.6 percent in 1980. Economists expect price gains to begin moderating this year, rather than climbing to such high levels.But in other ways, the backdrop Mr. Powell faces is beginning to look eerily similar to the one Mr. Volcker confronted.Understand Inflation in the U.S.Inflation 101: What is inflation, why is it up and whom does it hurt? Our guide explains it all.Your Questions, Answered: Times readers sent us their questions about rising prices. Top experts and economists weighed in.How Americans Feel: We asked 2,200 people where they’ve noticed inflation. Many mentioned basic necessities, like food and gas.Supply Chain’s Role: A key factor in rising inflation is the continuing turmoil in the global supply chain. Here’s how the crisis unfolded.Wages are increasing rapidly, and employers report raising prices to cover their bigger labor bills, posing the possibility of a more muted version of the wage-price spiral that helped keep inflation high during Mr. Volcker’s years.President Ronald Reagan with Paul A. Volcker, the Fed chair, in 1981.Scott Applewhite/Associated PressOil prices are climbing as Russia wages war on Ukraine, mirroring oil price shocks that rocked the economy in the years before Mr. Volcker’s ascent to the chair. The Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 and the Iranian revolution of 1979 both curtailed supply and sharply pushed up pump prices.And geopolitical instability is fueling uncertainty about what will happen next, much as it did in the 1970s, when war raged in Vietnam.“That’s the proper historical reference for what we’re trying not to replicate,” Mr. Powell said of the 1970s during separate remarks to Congress this month. “One of the things that is different now is that central banks — including the Fed — very squarely take responsibility for inflation.”When inflation was taking off in the 1960s and 1970s, Fed officials bickered about how high to raise rates as they worried about hurting the labor market too much. Many economic historians now think that their reluctance to act more quickly allowed those price gains to become locked in until they required a more draconian response.“The one really big difference — huge difference, consequential difference — is that the Fed, and the country, lived through the 1970s,” Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair, said in an interview. “I think the Fed is determined not to let us get there.”The inflation challenge facing Mr. Powell, who was renominated by President Biden for a second term as chair and is awaiting Senate confirmation, is the latest economic test that he has had to contend with during his tenure.Mr. Powell, 69, began his first four years as Fed chair in early 2018. By that Christmas, the central bank’s campaign of steady rate increases intended to fend off inflation had collided with President Donald J. Trump’s trade war to send markets plummeting.In 2019, Mr. Trump publicly pushed for lower rates and accosted Mr. Powell — whom the president had chosen to lead the central bank — in interviews and on Twitter, calling him a “bonehead,” an “enemy” and a golfer who could not putt.Then came the onset of the pandemic in 2020, and Mr. Powell and his colleagues crossed red lines and upended norms to rescue markets and the economy. They averted a financial crisis, but 2021 brought with it a new challenge: rapid inflation.Now, critics are questioning whether the monetary help that Mr. Powell’s Fed unleashed to protect the pandemic-stricken economy — lowering rates to near zero and buying trillions of dollars in government bonds — combined with huge fiscal stimulus to supercharge demand and release an inflationary genie that could prove hard to trap.The Fed has already begun removing some of that support, stopping bond purchases and communicating plans to raise interest rates by a quarter-point this month and steadily throughout the rest of the year. Mortgage rates have already begun climbing in anticipation of those actions.But some are asking whether the Fed, which wanted to see full employment return before paring back its support, has been too slow to react to changing conditions.This moment “represents a decade of economic experience in the late 1960s and 1970s, compressed into a year,” said Lawrence H. Summers, a former Treasury secretary who spent last year warning that inflation was going to take off as the government overstimulated the economy.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 6What is inflation? More

As war in Ukraine sparks renewed commodity price surges and threatens more supply chain disruptions, a rethink is underway on how fast the Fed will raise rates, given that inflation is at a 40-year high near 8% and rising.A quarter-point increase is seen as a done deal at the Fed’s Wednesday meeting, with another six or seven moves expected this year. Traders are also re-assessing the “terminal” rate – the point were the federal funds rate will peak.Currently, the expectation is for the terminal rate to be hit in the second half of 2023, and on Monday, the implied yield – essentially a proxy for the fed funds rate – on September 2023 Eurodollar contracts rose to 2.57%. That is up 57 basis points in a week, and up 100 bps this year. The fed funds range is currently 0-0.25%.This means traders now anticipate a terminal rate of around 2.50%. For most of this year, the Eurodollar market indicated a terminal rate closer to 2%. The new pricing gels with the 2.5% median forecast of Fed policymakers.Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) economist Sven Jari Stehn said his bank’s analysis indicates a terminal rate of 2.75%-3%. “When we think of the post-COVID world, with tight labour markets, elevated inflation and green investment, all that should support higher rates,” Stehn said. Eurodollar futures not only suggest a higher peak but also imply rates will stay higher for longer. Readings are distorted by thinner liquidity further down the curve, but current pricing shows rates staying above 2% for the next decade .The risk, however, is that too-aggressive a tightening could be a mistake that chokes the economy and heralds recession, particularly at a time of high energy prices. “One thing is clear – the Fed’s guidance will change from hawkish to dovish at some point,” Citi analysts told clients. “There is uncertainty around when the Fed will have to engage in easing but this cycle will very likely be shorter than previous cycles.” More

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s federal government plans to announce on Thursday a program providing some 165 billion reais ($32 billion) of economic stimulus during the current election year, three people familiar with the plan told Reuters.The so-called ‘Income and Opportunity Program’ includes an early payment of some public pension checks, a measure letting workers withdraw some cash from a severance fund known as FGTS, a new microcredit program, and an expansion of payroll-deductible loans, said the sources, speaking on condition of anonymity.They said at least 30 billion reais will be released from FGTS, allowing for up to 1,000 reais per worker, a move Economy Minister Paulo Guedes had already indicated was on its way.Both the administrations of President Jair Bolsonaro and his predecessor Michel Temer had already implemented measures to free up those funds. Under normal circumstances, money can only be withdrawn from FGTS in specific situations, such as if a worker retires, is fired, or wants to buy property.The government will also bring forward the payment of some public pension checks, the sources said, repeating a measure taken in 2020 and 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic. The expected July payment would reach pensioners’ pockets before October elections.Bolsonaro, who is widely expected to seek re-election, is currently trailing in opinion polls to former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The creation of a microcredit program and the expansion of payroll-deductible loans aim to allow workers access to resources that could be invested in small businesses, the sources said.($1 = 5.0949 reais) More

“We are in Ottawa and have just left the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture with … great news: the opening up of the country’s pork and beef market,” Brazilian Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias tweeted.Asked for comment, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency told Reuters it “approved the import of raw and cooked poultry meat, pork and pH matured beef from Brazil” last Friday.Dias, who traveled to Canada to speak with potash companies and other suppliers of fertilizers said Brazilian meatpackers will now be able to export products to more than 200 markets around the world, which was her goal when she took over the ministry more than three years ago.Brazilian pork and poultry lobby ABPA welcomed the announcement, but said the clearance for pork only extends to establishments in Santa Catarina, as the Southern Brazilian state was the only one recognized as free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination at the time of the initial request.Santa Catarina accounts for more than 50% of Brazil’s pork exports, ABPA said.Negotiations between Brazil and Canada continue relating to others areas now recognized as free of the disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. More

Good eveningEnergy prices are the hot topic at meetings of EU finance ministers today and tomorrow as they grapple with the threat to growth from rising inflation. As our Europe Express newsletter details, the bloc is split between interventionists and free marketeers who are at odds over how to tackle the price shock caused by the Ukraine crisis. (You can sign up for Europe Express here).What is not contested, however, is the size of the task at hand. A new report today says the ending of energy imports from Russia could knock up to 3 per cent off Germany’s GDP and lead to “major economic slumps and upheaval” if supplies are not replaced. Countries across Europe are scrambling to find alternative energy sources. Italy has announced plans for two new offshore regasification plants that would cut its dependence on gas piped from Russia and enable it to take more from other suppliers. Meanwhile, UK prime minister Boris Johnson is considering lifting the ban on fracking, although as the FT Lex column points out, on a small crowded island, this is easier said than done.The UK is also considering a 20-year extension of the Sizewell B nuclear power plant to 2055 as part of a new “energy supply strategy” to be published next week.Manufacturers are feeling the heat as their energy costs soar. British Steel has lifted its prices by an estimated 25 per cent, its highest ever increase. The move by Britain’s second largest steelmaker will exacerbate pressure on construction companies and adds to costs of the HS2 high-speed railway line, the country’s largest infrastructure project.For the UK’s gas and electricity networks, it’s a very different story. New analysis shows them to have higher profit margins than any other sector, fuelling calls for intervention as bills soar for households as well as businesses. Analysis published on Friday shows those households face a £38bn hit to their budgets from an expected doubling in electricity and gas bills, piling pressure on chancellor Rishi Sunak to impose a windfall tax on British energy producers.The surge in oil prices is also causing investors to cut their exposure to oil-dependent industries such as airlines that have barely recovered from the blow of the pandemic.“It is only a minor exaggeration to say that the 1973 oil shock created the modern global economy,” says the FT Editorial Board, which draws parallels with the current crisis.Amid the gloom, columnist Rana Foroohar argues the crisis provides an opportunity for an EU-US “grand bargain” on energy security and climate change. A temporary increase in US production could help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas, she says, while Europe could buy more US liquefied natural gas, which is poised for a jump in supply by 2024.The west will undoubtedly feel significant pain in the short term from a new oil shock, the FT concludes, but in the longer term it will drive speedier adoption of renewables, or as German finance minister Christian Lindner dubs it, the “energy of freedom”.Latest newsUkraine to experience ‘deep recession’ this year, says IMF The UN’s World Food Programme plans to scale up its operations in Ukraine to provide emergency food or cash aid to at least 2-3mn peopleUkrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to address rare joint session of US Congress on WednesdayFor up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogNeed to know: the economyIt’s an important week for central banks. The US Federal Reserve has to juggle the effect of the Ukraine crisis with its first interest rate rise since 2018, likely to be announced on Wednesday. US government bond prices dropped today ahead of the Fed meeting, sending the yield (which moves inversely to prices) on the 10-year US Treasury note to its highest level since July 2019.The Bank of England is also poised to raise rates on Thursday to their pre-Covid level as part of its fight against surging inflation, despite the weak outlook for growth.Russia’s finance minister accused the west of trying to force an “artificial default” as Moscow prepares to make key interest payments on its foreign currency debt in roubles. Sanctions have frozen about $300bn of Russia’s $643bn in foreign currency reserves, limiting Moscow’s ability to support the rouble and raising the possibility of a first default since 1998.Latest for the UK and EuropeWhat do antibacterial wipes, sports bras and meat-free sausages have in common? They’ve all been added to the virtual “basket” of 700 items used to calculate UK inflation. Departures from the annual shake-up include coal and the single doughnut.Is the UK economy heading back to the 1970s? Some dismiss the comparison by pointing to today’s economic framework of weaker trade unions and an independent Bank of England with clear, legislated inflation targets. Karen Ward, a strategist at JPMorgan, is not so sure.It’s a bewildering time for investors trying to decide where to put their money against a backdrop of inflation, war and volatile markets. Navigate your way through with our guide to UK Isas. Global latestThe Russian invasion of Ukraine will have an “enormous” impact on global food supplies through higher prices and disrupted supply chains. Both countries are leading suppliers of grain and sunflower oil, markets which were already badly affected by drought and high demand as countries emerged from the pandemic. And although the US is the world’s second biggest wheat exporter after Russia, it will be unable to fill the gap. Germany’s Bayer threatened to suspend crop supply sales to Russia next year unless the country stops its attacks on Ukraine.

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FT deputy editor Patrick Jenkins uses the example of the fall of Lehman Brothers to show the unpredictable impact of sanctions. “Be under no illusion: Russians will not be the only ones to suffer . . . The world should remember Lehman and brace for a global financial and economic shock,” he argues.Need to know: businessThe closure of Apple supplier Foxconn’s plants in Shenzhen is a stark reminder that Covid is not done yet. Many other factories in the tech and manufacturing hub that borders Hong Kong have also been ordered to close as the territory fights the deadliest stage of the pandemic so far. Chinese stocks fell as investors feared widespread lockdowns could be back.Western aircraft leasing companies face a hit to the value of their planes used by Russian airlines after regulators in Bermuda, where most of Russia’s foreign-owned commercial jets are registered, said they would revoke their registrations. Western sanctions ban the leasing of aircraft to Russia and existing contracts must be terminated by the end of March. Accountancy correspondent Michael O’Dwyer looks at the practical problems facing the Big Four firms as they take their leave of Russia. Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC, which employ about 15,000 people in the country, are deeply enmeshed in Russia’s economy and count big state-owned entities as clients. Management editor Andrew Hill looks at the challenges for company boards discussing exits.The EU is considering targeting Roman Abramovich in its latest round of sanctions against Russian business people. UK regulators have demanded more information from banks on how oligarchs are shifting their money around the world.The latest sign of consolidation in the “flexible office” sector came today with a £1.5bn merger deal between UK-based landlords The Office Group and Fora, following a deal between Workspace and McKay Securities earlier this month. Investors are betting that offices with good amenities and flexible leasing terms will become more attractive, even if hybrid working patterns mean lower occupancy rates than before the pandemic. Brazil’s large population of 214mn and the pandemic-driven surge in ecommerce offer huge opportunities for tech companies to tap consumer markets. Food delivery company iFood has doubled orders from pre-crisis levels to more than 60mn a month and extended into groceries, logistics and the credit market. The wider region drew in record amounts of venture capital last year.The World of WorkThe new “asynchronised workforce” — with some or all staff working remotely — poses a new challenge for managers who need to maintain their organisation’s culture, help their employees achieve work-life balance, and recreate the serendipitous exchange of ideas that happens in physical settings. Arvind Malhotra, professor of strategy and entrepreneurship at the University of North Carolina, offers some tips.Free food and massages are one thing but managers often overlook a key question in the minds of office workers pondering a return to the office, writes Tim Harford: would I feel like I was the boss of my own desk? An experiment by psychologists found that when workers were empowered to shape their own space, they did more and better work and felt far more content. When workers were deliberately disempowered, their work suffered. After 18 months of Zoom informality, men are now having to deal with a problem women have had for decades, writes columnist Pilita Clark: what to wear to work. One interviewee welcomed the shift towards more casual wear: “It’s so much more focused on bringing your brain. People no longer find a suit a free pass to competence.” The “Great Resignation” is leading many to contemplate new careers via an online MBA. But how do you choose your ideal course — and get a place? Read our new guide to the top institutions and how online courses are reshaping business education.Are you in charge of learning in your organisation? Tell us your views on the most important topics, the best providers and most useful platforms for learning: answer our survey at www.ft.com/closurvey by March 25. Last year’s results are here: what skills employers want.Get the latest worldwide picture with our vaccine trackerAnd finally.From tips on preventing hair loss to the “Mozart of watchmaking” and some rather, erm, interesting, developments on the catwalk: the How to Spend It men’s style issue has you covered.© Kuba Ryniewicz More