Economy

Ukraine began evacuating civilians from some of its hardest-hit urban areas today after tentative signs that a ceasefire with Russian forces was holding up for the first time.After several failed attempts to allow civilians to escape frontline fighting in recent days, Russia and Ukraine said they had agreed to avoid clashes in defined areas from 9am to 9pm, including the city of Sumy.The UN has raised its estimate of the number of people now displaced by the war to 2mn. EU officials said they expected as many as 5mn refugees, in what would be the biggest movement of people across Europe in more than half a century.Moscow meanwhile has warned the west that bans on its energy exports would lead to a “catastrophic” rise in the oil price to $300 a barrel.Directly addressing the potential ban by the US and its allies, Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak warned it could lead to a more than doubling of the price of oil. He also said Russia had the option of switching off gas supplies to Europe via the original Nord Stream pipeline, but had chosen not to so far because “no one will benefit”.Oil markets were calmer today following yesterday’s extreme volatility that saw crude oil prices rise to near $140 a barrel before falling back to nearer $120, after Germany said it opposed the proposed international ban of Russian oil imports.Crude oil, the international benchmark, is today trading up $2.46 a barrel at $125.64. WTI, the US benchmark, gained $2.16 to $121.56 a barrel.More on UkraineAnalysis: As the US considers banning the import of Russian oil, our economics editor Chris Giles assesses what such a move would mean for the global economy. Military Briefing: Russia is increasingly using long-range missiles and rockets to target cities as its advance stalls, particularly in the north and north-east.Markets Briefing: Wheat and nickel futures prices hit record highs today as the war in Ukraine leads to tumult in commodities market. The London Metal Exchange suspended nickel trading after the price doubled. China-Russia relations: Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, China has been exceptional among leading global economies in abstaining from sanctions. Much is at stake on both sides to maintaining cordial relations.Opinion: In all his historical musings, Putin missed one crucial recurring pattern: the role that failed wars have played in bringing about regime change in Russia, argues Gideon Rachman. There is no sustainable middle ground for UK directors on the boards of Russian companies, Helen Thomas writes.Follow our live blog for the latest developments and the conflict in maps.Five more stories in the news1. Nicolás Maduro hails ‘cordial’ talks with US Venezuela’s president described nearly two hours of landmark talks with a US government delegation over the weekend as “respectful” and “cordial”. Washington is exploring a rapprochement with Caracas as it considers banning Russian oil imports.Go deeper Soaring energy prices are reviving the US shale oil industry and yesterday Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum, two US shale oil producers, agreed a $6bn merger. Meanwhile activist investor Carl Icahn sold his stake in Occidental Petroleum.2. Crunch time for Iran nuclear deal Enrique Mora, the EU envoy co-ordinating indirect talks in Vienna between the Biden administration and the Islamic republic, has said “political decisions” to secure a deal between Iran and the US to revive the 2015 nuclear accord must be made in “days”, as western powers pressure Tehran to sign a deal.3. Moderna vows never to enforce Covid jab patents The US company pledged never to enforce its Covid-19 vaccine patents in low- and middle-income nations following criticism that its opposition to waiving intellectual property rights threatens Africa’s access to life-saving jabs.4. Amazon Web Services’ ‘painful’ outages The head of AWS said recent outages of its cloud computing service were “incredibly painful” but insisted that its rapid growth would not lead to wider disruption. The cloud computing infrastructure experienced two big failures late last year, including a December outage at its data centre in northern Virginia.5. Brazil’s rainforest could pass a point of no return The Amazon rainforest is losing its ability to recover from destruction, and parts of it are approaching “a catastrophic tipping point”, warns a leading scientist after a new study using two decades of satellite data.The day aheadVisegrad Group UK prime minister Boris Johnson will host the leaders of the V4 countries — Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia — in London to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky will also speak to UK lawmakers live from Ukraine as he continues to push for more western help. Apple event The iPhone maker is expected to launch a low-cost version of its popular iPhone with 5G, a new version of the iPad Air and a high-end Mac Mini at its annual spring event today. Earnings Bumble Inc is expected to show a rise in fourth-quarter revenue, driven by strong growth in paying users for its dating apps.International Women’s Day To mark International Women’s Day the FT has published a special report on Women in Business featuring experts on the finances of hybrid working and “office banter” as well as going grey.Join us on March 10 for an hour of empowerment about money with a panel of female experts convened by the FT and its new charity, the Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign. Expect practical tips and answers to your questions about the four money issues that matter most to women of all ages. Register free today here.What else we’re readingWill the Ukraine war derail the green energy transition? The war in Ukraine is leading to a surge in demand for coal and a rethink on fossil fuels — complicating the shift to renewable energy and the reduction of greenhouse gasses. Disney plans makeover for ESPN The cable sports network ESPN has been an important profit engine for The Walt Disney Co, thanks to robust subscriber growth, high advertising rates and the industry-leading fees it charges cable providers. But its subscriber numbers have been steadily shrinking as audiences have migrated to streaming services.Getting the most out of a career change Most salaried workers share two things: a dislike for their jobs and a reluctance to leave them. Breaking through the inertia takes something big. Lucy Kellaway shares four lessons about the change and how to get the most from it.Rewriting the post-Covid contract for dual-career couples Anyone in a couple where both are pursuing careers knows very well the tensions of accommodating each other’s work priorities, writes Brooke Masters. Now as the pandemic recedes, she warns, of new opportunities and pitfalls for dual-career couples.TravelFour sunny escapes for spring-summer, including the less-trod island of Syros in the Cyclades and swimming with the marine-mammalian species of Dominica, as well as the mid-century magic in Joshua Tree.

Dominica is the only place on earth where sperm whales can be found year-round More

(Reuters) – Mining group BHP warned on Tuesday of the impact of surging commodity prices on already skyrocketing inflation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while nickel trading was suspended in London after prices more than doubled.Oil, metal and other commodities prices have soared as fighting in Ukraine has intensified. Oil rose past $126 a barrel on Tuesday, while the London Metal Exchange halted nickel trading after prices of the stainless steel ingredient surged above $100,000 per tonne. “We have seen hundreds of percentage increases of prices on a range of commodities,” BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) Chief Executive Mike Henry said at a conference in Sydney. “That is going to have a spillover economic effect on inflation, potentially on global growth.”Consumer brands such as Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), Burger King parent Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) Inc, McDonald’s Corp (NYSE:MCD) and Woolworths have all flagged rising cost pressures this year.Inflation has been running at a 40-year high in the United States and hit record highs in the euro zone. Speaking at the same conference as Henry, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Chairman and CEO James Gorman urged the U.S. central bank to be cautious about raising interest rates following the invasion, though he said failing to lift them enough was also a threat. “The Fed has a real dilemma now,” he said. “Unambiguously inflation is on the rise and it is not transient.” The outbreak of war meant “the problem just got bigger, not smaller. My bidding is the Fed will raise very methodically now. No surprises up or down.””The worst thing that can happen is the war recedes … but inflation’s raging (because) the Fed didn’t do enough.”The U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on March 16. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week it will act cautiously given the uncertainty over the impact of the war.”They’re in this delicate balance between having to be very considered and taking action to reduce inflation,” said Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake.LATEST BRANDSDozens of companies have shut down activity in Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special military operation”. German sportswear maker Adidas (OTC:ADDYY) and Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger owner PVH Corp (NYSE:PVH) are among the latest brands to announce the suspension of activities in Russia. Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL) has also said it will suspend all commercial operations in Russia, while Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) Co is ending all new capital investments and “significantly reducing” its portfolio there.The conflict has roiled global stock markets as investors have worried about the economic fallout, putting in doubt market listings. Malaysia’s Top Glove Corp Bhd postponed a plan to raise $347 million in a Hong Kong listing due to market uncertainty.Chinese fast fashion retailer Shein had already postponed its U.S. listing ambitions due to the upheaval, and a plan by India’s LIC to raise $8 billion before March-end is also in doubt.Credit rating firm Fitch on Monday joined rival Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) in suspending its commercial operations in Russia. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), which runs the most widely used emerging bond market indexes, also said it would exclude the country from all of its fixed income indexes, in common with rival index providers FTSE Russell and MSCI.German utility Uniper said it would write down financial exposure to the suspended Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, joining pipeline co-funders Wintershall Dea, Shell (LON:RDSa) and OMV. More

Investing.com — Nickel prices go crazy as stress builds in the world’s commodity markets. The European Union will publish new ideas on how to wean itself off Russian energy, a prospect that sent the ruble down another 4% to a new record low. U.S. stocks are seen posting a dead-cat bounce after Monday’s carnage, while the Treasury will sell 3-year notes into a weakening market.  Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL), Adidas (OTC:ADDYY) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) join the exodus from Russia. Oil stays well bid as Shell (LON:RDSa) self-sanctions but gas prices ease off after Germany plays down a Russian threat to stop current supplies. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is expected to show new cut-price iPhone. Here’s what you need to know in financial markets on Tuesday, 8th March. 1. Nickel goes crazyThe stress in global financial markets as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine is becoming ever more obvious.The London Metals Exchange was forced to suspend trading in Nickel and took the rare step of saying it may adjust or cancel some trades retroactively after a violent short squeeze took the main contract to over $101,000 a ton. That’s about seven times where it was trading before the pandemic and more than twice its previous peak, hit in 2007.The sharpness of the move appears to have been caused by an industrial client of China Construction Bank (OTC:CICHF), which needed to be given extra time to meet its margin calls on Monday.Nickel is mainly used by the auto and construction sectors for stainless steel but demand has mushroomed in recent years due to its use as a battery metal in electric vehicles. The average Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) model uses 45 kilograms of the metal.2. Oil stays bid as Shell self-sanctionsr; natural gas prices ease  in Europe; STEO, API eyedCrude oil prices stayed above $120 a barrel as Shell confirmed it would no longer buy Russian oil or gas through either spot or long-term markets. That reinforces the ‘self-sanctioning’ dynamic visible in the market for the last two weeks.By 6:10 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were up 2.7% at $122.61 a barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.9% at $126.76 a barrel.Benchmark European natural gas futures, however, eased off after German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said he didn’t expect Russia to follow through on a threat to stop gas supplies to Europe through existing pipelines.  The extreme level of prices will add spice to the U.S. government’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, which is released at 12 PM ET (1700 GMT). The American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventory report, meanwhile, is due at 4:30 PM ET, as usual, and market participants will be sensitive to any further signs of high prices causing demand destruction. National average gasoline prices hit a record high of $4.17 a gallon on Monday.3. Stocks set to open with unimpressive bounce; Adidas, Estee Lauder, Adobe join the Russian exodusU.S. stocks are set to open with a modest rebound later, after another day of heavy losses caused by the war in Ukraine and the Western measures to punish Russia for it.By 6:15 AM ET, Dow Jones futures were up 75 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.1%. The three main cash indices had lost between 2.3% and 3.6% on Monday, with the Dow becoming the latest benchmark index to enter correction territory.At 1 PM ET, the U.S. Treasury will auction three-year notes in the first of three big debt sales this week. Yields hit their highest in two weeks on Monday as initial flight-to-quality flows faded under pressure from ongoing fears about inflation.Stocks in focus later are likely to include Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL), Adidas (DE:ADSGN) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), the latest big names to join the exodus from Russia.4. EU to get serious about cutting energy dependence? European bonds and central European currencies rallied after a Bloomberg report saying that the European Union will consider issuing joint debt to finance spending deemed necessary to strengthen Europe’s defenses and wean itself off Russian energy supplies.The move would be a further radical step towards a common fiscal capacity for the EU, adding to the Next Generation EU debt that was launched to finance the rebuilding of the economy after the pandemic.The Polish zloty, Hungarian forint and koruna, all of which have underperformed sharply in the last two weeks, bounced strongly.   The European Commission is due later to issue a new strategy document detailing how it intends to cut the EU’s dependence on Russian gas, fresh evidence of the profound change in strategic thinking caused the invasion of Ukraine. The ruble, meanwhile, fell another 4% against the dollar to a new record low.5. Apple expected to show new cut-price iPhoneApple is widely expected to preview a new cut-price version of its iPhone at a corporate event on the West Coast later.The move appears to suggest a greater degree of price sensitivity at the company for its flagship product than was evident in the last two years, when it took advantage of record high demand for hardware upgrades to raise prices substantially for its new models. More

“There will be some impact… it’s possible that growth may come off the lower end of the forecast a little,” Arkhom Termpittayapaisith told a news conference, referring to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Foreign tourist arrivals in the Southeast Asian country could also miss the ministry’s forecast of 7 million this year, Arkhom said.The high price of goods driven by rising energy prices has slowed domestic consumption, he said.The finance ministry, the central bank and the state planning agency were reassessing the impacts of the conflict on Thailand’s economy, he added. The government is considering measures to help reduce people’s living costs, including utility subsidies, Arkhom said, without giving further details.The cabinet on Tuesday approved a six-month excise tax cut on diesel and fuel oil for power generating to help reduce the impact of high fuel prices, Arkhom said.($1 = 33.17 baht) More

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The European Commission has prepared a new package of sanctions against Russia and Belarus over the invasion of Ukraine that will hit additional Russian oligarchs and politicians and three Belarusian banks, three sources told Reuters on Tuesday.The draft sanctions were adopted by the EU executive on Tuesday morning and will be discussed by EU ambassadors at a meeting starting at 1400 GMT, one source said.The draft package will ban three Belarusian banks from the SWIFT banking system and add several more oligarchs and Russian lawmakers to the EU blacklist, the sources told Reuters.The package also bans exports from the EU of naval equipment and software to Russia and provides guidance on the monitoring of cryptocurrencies to avoid their use to circumvent EU sanctions, the sources said.Moscow describes its actions in Ukraine as a “special operation” to disarm its neighbour and arrest leaders it calls “neo-Nazis”. Ukraine and its Western allies call this a baseless pretext for an invasion to conquer a country of 44 million people.EU diplomats have so far approved sanctions proposed by the EU Commission against Russia and Belarus without any changes.The EU has already excluded seven Russian banks from SWIFT, but had not included Belarusian banks.The sources declined to name the new lenders to be sanctioned.One source said the package also listed oligarchs and members of Russia’s Federation Council, which is the upper house of the Russian Parliament.So far EU sanctions have hit hundreds of members of the lower house, the Duma, who voted in favour of Russia’s recognition of the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.The EU will also expand its ban on EU exports of advanced technology to Russia, mostly supporting the ban on the export of maritime technology, the sources said.The ban on the export of naval equipment and software to Russia is mainly meant to hit its shipping sector, one source said. More

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Fines on companies that send workers from low-pay EU states to richer member states and fail to comply with the latter’s red-tape should be proportionate, Europe’s top court said on Tuesday.The issue of so-called ‘posted’ workers employed on contracts that need only guarantee the host country’s minimum wage has divided EU states for years. The case before the Luxembourg-based Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) arose after an Austrian court sought guidance on a 54,000 euro ($58,708.80) fine levied by an Austrian administrative authority on a Slovakian company that had sent workers to Austria.The administrative body said the Slovakian company had failed to comply with Austrian labour law obligations to retain wage and social security documents for the posted workers.CJEU judges said penalties should not be disproportionate.”Posting of workers: national courts must ensure that penalties for non-compliance with administrative obligations are proportionate,” the Court said.”National courts may apply a national system of penalties contrary to the directive concerning the posting of workers as long as it ensures proportionality of the penalties.”The case is C-205/20 Bezirkshauptmannschaft Hartberg-Fürstenfeld.A rich-poor divide over the issue of posted workers prompted the European Commission to adopt rules four years ago that limit the right of citizens from poorer member states to work in richer ones on a low salary.($1 = 0.9198 euros) More

The manufacturing sector secured 195.1 billion ringgit worth of projects in 2021, 114% more than in the previous year, with the bulk of investment going to the electrical and electronics industry, the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA) said in a statement.The northern state of Penang, which is Southeast Asia’s semiconductor manufacturing hub, was the largest recipient of investments.”The manufacturing sector continued to be the mainstay of the economy for 2021, generating significant multiplier effects on the nation’s activities and growth,” MIDA said.Foreign direct investments accounted for about 68% of the approved investments, more than three times than in 2020. Top foreign investors included The Netherlands, Singapore, China, Austria and Japan.Minister of International Trade and Industry Mohamed Azmin Ali said in the statement that easing COVID-19 restrictions and high vaccination rates have allowed economic activities to resume in Malaysia.($1 = 4.1800 ringgit) More

The average price of a gallon of gasoline is up more than 10 percent in the last week, leading some consumers to rethink their routines and spending.After months of working from home, Caroline McNaney, 29, was excited about going back to work in an office, even if her new job in Trenton, N.J., meant commuting an hour each way.But when she spent $68 filling the tank of her blue Nissan Maxima this week, she felt a surge of regret about switching jobs.“Is this for real?” Ms. McNaney recalled thinking. “I took a job further from home to make more money, and now I feel like I didn’t do anything for myself because gas is so high.”The recent rise in gas prices — which the war in Ukraine has pushed even higher — has contributed to her sense of disappointment with President Biden. “I feel like he wants us to go out and spend money into the economy, but at the same time everything is being inflated,” she said.Americans everywhere are feeling the sting of rising gasoline, which reached a national average of $4.07 a gallon on Monday, up more than 10 percent from a week ago. The last time consumers dealt with such a period of sharp price increases was when the global economy came undone during the 2008 financial crisis. (At that time, the average price per gallon reached roughly $5.37 when adjusted for inflation.)How Gas Prices Have JumpedThe average price of regular gasoline on Monday, compared with a week ago, in select states. (See below for a full list of current averages by state.)

Source: AAABy The New York TimesThis time, the high gasoline prices are hitting during multiple crises, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a pandemic that is receding but still not over, and the highest inflation levels in 40 years.Gas prices were already increasing before the invasion last month, as oil suppliers scrambled to keep up with rising demand from consumers and businesses recovering from Covid disruptions. But calls in recent days from U.S. lawmakers and others to ban Russian oil imports have spurred worries about another hit to global supplies. Prices at the pump, in turn, soared rapidly.The sticker shock is creating a conundrum for the Biden administration, which is trying to isolate Russia’s leader, Vladimir V. Putin, without squeezing the United States economy in the process.The extreme prices — which for some types of gas have hovered near $6 a gallon in parts of California — could be fleeting. Accelerating production in the shale oil fields of Texas and other regions is expected to begin replenishing supplies soon.Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, said he expected consumer spending to slow over the next few months as Americans pay more to fill up their tanks. Some people will be able to draw on savings to partly cushion the blow, he said.“The long-term impact should be somewhat minimal,” Mr. Feroli said.Gasoline accounts for only a fairly small share of consumers’ overall spending, but because gas prices are so visible — posted in giant numbers alongside every highway in the country — they have an outsize influence on people’s perceptions of inflation and the economy.That perception is an increasingly dark one, according to drivers interviewed filling up on Monday. They said the higher prices had already caused them to cut back on expenses and small pleasures like going out to eat.For many, the high prices are another hurdle frustrating their efforts to return to normalcy after the pandemic.Since moving to the United States from Torreón, Mexico, in 2007, Jesús López, 36, was used to gas prices rising steadily for a few days, but eventually coming back down. Mr. López said this time felt different because he wasn’t seeing a stop to the climb when he filled up the tank of his 2008 Ford Expedition.Mr. López, who works as a school janitor in Dallas, said that if prices kept skyrocketing, he would have to cut back on leisure activities.“It’s sad that if I stop going to a restaurant, a toxic cycle will be created,” said Mr. López. “If I stop spending money on a restaurant, they’ll get less income and people could lose their jobs.”Mr. López said he empathized with Ukrainians, but lamented that the conflict overseas was also affecting working-class people in the United States.“If I have to spend more to go to work, then I’ll do it,” he said. “I’ll just have to administer and budget my money more if I want to keep having a decent lifestyle.”Sandy Ramos, 24, who lives in Cerritos, Calif., says much of the money she makes at her part-time job as a research and development engineering intern now goes to food and gas.She has looked into taking public transportation to work instead of driving, but that would add time to her already hourlong commute. Instead she is saving money in other ways, like cutting back spending on clothing.Ms. Ramos said she didn’t know where to direct her frustration over gas prices. “I don’t know who to blame or what to blame,” she said. “I feel like someone needs to be responsible for it.”The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global EconomyCard 1 of 6Rising concerns. More