Economy

Gross domestic product grew by 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, capping a more robust year than expected. Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook.Growth slowed but remained resilient at the end of 2024, leaving the U.S. economy on solid footing heading into a new year — and a new presidential administration — that is full of uncertainty.U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. That was down from 3.1 percent in the third quarter but nonetheless represented an encouraging end to a year in which the economy again defied expectations.Robust consumer spending, underpinned by low unemployment and steady wage growth, helped keep the economy on track despite high interest rates, stubborn inflation and political turmoil at home and abroad. For the year as a whole, measured from the end of 2023 to the end of 2024, G.D.P. increased 2.5 percent, far ahead of forecasters’ expectations when the year began.“We ended on a pretty strong note,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm KPMG. “It’s stunning how resilient and strong the economy has been.”The figures are preliminary and will be revised at least twice as more data becomes available.But the economy entered the new year facing a new set of challenges. The whirlwind start to President Trump’s second term — including sweeping changes to immigration policy, a spending freeze that was announced and then rescinded and steep tariffs that could take effect as early as this weekend — has increased uncertainty for households and businesses. Economists warn that his proposals on trade and immigration, in particular, could lead to faster inflation, slower growth or both.“You really have all the right ingredients to support sustainable growth, but the question is, where will it be in 12 months’ time?” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for the consulting firm EY-Parthenon. “The risk is you break the economy.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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The German economy contracted in the fourth quarter, after logging a slight uptick in the three months ending in September.
Analysts polled by Reuters had been expecting the gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 0.1%.
Household and government consumption expenditures increased, but exports were “significantly lower” than in the previous quarter, German statistics agency Destatis said.

The Frankfurt skyline at dusk on a November day.
Helmut Fricke | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The German economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months ending in December, according to preliminary data released by Germany’s statistics office Destatis on Thursday.
The figure is adjusted for price, calendar and seasonal variations.

Analysts polled by Reuters had been expecting the gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 0.1%.
Household and government consumption expenditures increased, but exports were “significantly lower” than in the previous quarter, Destatis said.
“After a year marked by economic and structural challenges, the German economy thus ended 2024 in negative territory,” it added.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said that there was now “a high likelihood this downturn will lead to a winter recession.”
Germany’s issues appear to be currently concentrated in the country’s industry, but this could change, he said in a note on Thursday.

“Given the importance of industry for the entire economy, spillovers to other sectors – be it via sentiment or real economic channels – are already happening.”
The crucial industry is also not set for a “substantial recovery” as issues with inventories and order books persist and tariffs on exports to the U.S. loom, Brzeski noted.
Thursday’s figures compare to a 0.1% rise of the country’s GDP in the third quarter of last year. Germany’s economic performance has long been sluggish, with quarterly GDP readings mostly hovering around the flatline in the past two years. The economy has however managed to avoid a technical recession.
On an annual basis, the German economy contracted in both 2023 and 2024, by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
Some respite is expected in 2025, with the German government on Wednesday revealing its forecast of 0.3% growth for the year — still a notably downward revision from it’s previous estimate of 1.1% growth.
“The diagnosis is serious,” Robert Habeck, economy and climate minister, said during a press conference Wednesday, according to a CNBC translation.
He added that the German economy has been stagnating for a long time. He pointed to both internal and global political uncertainty as factors leading to the cut to expectations, and added that the outgoing government had been unable to fully implement its growth plans as its term was ending early.
A federal election in Germany is slated for Feb. 23, which is earlier than originally planned due to the break up of the country’s ruling coalition late last year.
Habeck also said that there were structural issues weighing on the German economy, echoing comment made by the Finance Minister Jörg Kukies last week.
“The structural weaknesses of our economy absolutely have to be addressed,” Kukies told CNBC. “It’s really important that we embark on a path of economic growth.” More

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Howard Lutnick, a wealthy donor to President Trump who has been chosen to lead the Commerce Department, defended Mr. Trump’s plans to impose broad tariffs and said he would take a tough stance on technology sales to China during his Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday.If confirmed, Mr. Lutnick would lead on trade policy and oversee a broad portfolio of government programs touching on business promotion, technology and science. He told lawmakers that he favored “across-the-board” tariffs that would hit entire countries rather than specific products, to equal out America’s trading relationships.He said that, while he believed tariffs on China “should be the highest,” governments in Europe, Japan and South Korea had also taken advantage of the United States on trade. He said that American farmers, ranchers and fishers were being “treated with disrespect around the world.”“We need that disrespect to end, and I think tariffs are a way to create reciprocity, to be treated fairly, to be treated appropriately,” he said. Mr. Lutnick also insisted that tariffs would not cause inflation, though many economists say tariffs are often at least partly passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.Asked about China’s recent advances in artificial intelligence, Mr. Lutnick said he would take a tough stance on the department’s oversight of technology sales to China, and back up U.S. export controls with the threat of tariffs. He said that the recent A.I. technology released by the Chinese start-up DeepSeek had been underpinned by Meta’s open platform and chips sold by the U.S. company Nvidia.“We need to stop helping them,” he said of China, adding: “I’m going to be very strong on that.”Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the Republican majority leader, during Mr. Lutnick’s confirmation hearing on Wednesday. Republicans promoted Mr. Lutnick’s personal story, describing him as someone who had achieved great success despite facing adversity.Eric Lee/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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