Economy

This outlook is based on the anticipation that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will lead to a resumption in the disinflation process. However, the firm also cautioned that the CBN would remain cautious due to inflationary risks associated with the government’s fiscal policy.The inflation rate in Nigeria reversed its disinflation trend towards the end of 2024, with headline inflation climbing to 34.9% year-on-year in November, surpassing the peak of 34.2% observed in June. A significant factor in this increase was the over 70% hike in petrol prices since August, driven by fiscal pressures and resulting in broader impacts on consumer prices.The firm predicts that inflation could drop below 20% by the end of the year, which is more optimistic than the consensus estimate of 21.4%.Despite these factors, Capital Economics does not expect inflation to return to single digits in the near term, as it has remained above 10% since 2016. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

Companies are moving quickly to secure their funding before any further rise in borrowing costs. In the first week of the new year, approximately $75 billion of investment-grade rated bond supply has been issued. This figure is set to increase as three more corporate and roughly eight sovereign and supranational bond offerings are expected to be priced on Wednesday, as per data from Informa (LON:INF) Global Markets.Investment-grade rated bonds are priced at a spread premium over risk-free U.S. Treasuries. However, there are concerns that a sell-off in Treasuries and a rise in the dollar could continue to send shockwaves through financial markets. This is due to growing uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and their potential impact on U.S. interest rate easing.Despite these concerns, investor demand at higher yields has remained strong, putting pressure on corporate credit spreads and in some way neutralizing the impact on funding costs due to higher yields.This combination of rising yields and tightening spreads is expected to benefit both issuers and investors, and keep the current issuance frenzy alive, which is expected to resume after a brief pause.The upcoming abbreviated session on Thursday as a tribute to the late 39th U.S. President Jimmy Carter and the release of jobs data on Friday are expected to slow issuance. Additionally, U.S. companies typically avoid issuing bonds before releasing earnings, which are expected to start rolling in later this week.Bankers anticipate that new bond offerings in January could raise anywhere between $175 billion to $200 billion. If volumes reach $200 billion, it would mark only the fifth time in history that monthly issuance has reached that level, according to Informa Global Markets data.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

However, the corporate sector is facing challenges, with a negative sentiment and declining profitability, which could hinder business investment.The Canadian economic landscape is further complicated by potential U.S. tariffs and political uncertainty following Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation. Wells Fargo anticipates that U.S. imports from Canada may be subject to a 5% tariff starting mid-year, adding to the challenges for Canadian exports and investment.Despite these factors, Wells Fargo expects a slight improvement in Canada’s GDP growth, projecting an increase to 1.7% in 2025 from the estimated 1.3% in 2024. However, the risks lean towards a slower recovery than anticipated.Inflation in Canada remains contained, with domestic inflation slowing and labor cost pressures easing. This environment, according to Wells Fargo, should allow the Bank of Canada to continue reducing policy interest rates in the upcoming meetings.Wells Fargo forecasts a series of rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, with a reduction of 25 basis points each in January, March, April, and June. This would bring the policy rate down to 2.25%, which is at the lower end of the neutral policy rate range. The firm also suggests that sluggish growth and cautious policy easing by the Federal Reserve could result in the Canadian dollar remaining weak over the medium term.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

Cargo could stop flowing at East and Gulf Coast ports, which handle most imports, if a union and an employers’ group can’t agree on the use of machines that can operate without humans.Ports on the East and Gulf Coasts could close next week if dockworkers and employers cannot overcome their big differences over the use of automated machines to move cargo.The International Longshoremen’s Association, the union that represents dockworkers, and the United States Maritime Alliance, the employers’ negotiating group, on Tuesday resumed in-person talks aimed at forging a new labor contract.After a short strike in October, the union and the alliance agreed on a 62 percent raise over six years for the longshoremen — and said they would try to work out other parts of the contract, including provisions governing automated technology, before Jan. 15.If they don’t have a deal by that date, ports that account for three-fifths of U.S. container shipments could shut, harming businesses that rely on imports and exports and providing an early test for the new Trump administration.“If there’s a strike, it will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and the supply chain,” said Dennis Monts, chief commercial officer of PayCargo, a logistics payments platform.The union is resisting automation because it fears the loss of jobs at the ports. President-elect Donald J. Trump lent his support to the union’s position last month. “I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it,” he said on his website Truth Social. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

President-elect Donald J. Trump has threatened tariffs on many countries for many different reasons.On Monday, he found a new purpose for his favorite economic tool. Mr. Trump said he would “tariff Denmark at a very high level” if it refused to allow Greenland — a North American island that is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark — to become part of the United States.“They should give it up, because we need it for national security,” Mr. Trump said of Greenland. Denmark, which has a smaller population than New York City, is not a huge trading partner for the United States. The country — a U.S. ally and a NATO member — sent the United States more than $11 billion worth of goods in 2023, just a tiny slice of more than $3 trillion of imports. The United States, in turn, sends Denmark more than $5 billion in goods, including industrial machinery, computers, aircraft and scientific instruments.But despite its small size, Denmark, which handles Greenland’s foreign and security affairs, is home to some products that are very well-loved in America, goods that could become more expensive if Mr. Trump follows through with heavy tariffs. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a trade data platform, roughly half of Denmark’s recent exports to the United States are packaged medicines, insulin, vaccines and antibiotics.That’s largely because the country is home to Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy, the popular weight-loss drugs. The company is so important to the Danish economy — it has recently accounted for half of Denmark’s private sector job growth and all of the country’s economic growth — that some have branded Denmark a “pharmastate.”Novo Nordisk is increasing its U.S. production to meet the soaring demand for its GLP-1 weight loss products. The company does not specify publicly how much of its products are exported, but it produces drugs in Denmark and the United States for the U.S. market.A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk said in a statement that they were following the situation closely but would not comment on hypotheticals and speculation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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Companies added a seasonally adjusted 122,000 jobs for the month, down from 146,000 additions in November and less than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 136,000.
On wages, pay grew at a 4.6% rate from a year ago, the slowest pace since July 2021.

A worker adjusts hiring signage at a job and resource fair hosted by the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board in partnership with NCWorks in Hendersonville, North Carolina, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. 
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Private sector job creation eased more than expected in December while wages grew at the slowest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years, payment processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.
Companies added a seasonally adjusted 122,000 jobs for the month, down from 146,000 additions in November and less than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 136,000. It was the smallest increase since August.

On wages, pay grew at a 4.6% rate from a year ago, the slowest pace since July 2021.
“The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.
The ADP report comes two days ahead of the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that report to show a gain of 155,000, which in itself would mark a sharp slowdown from November’s unexpectedly strong 227,000.
Federal Reserve policymakers are watching the jobs numbers closely as they plot their next moves for monetary policy. While most Fed officials have said they believe the labor market is solid, they are looking to keep interest rates less restrictive so as not to threaten job creation.
They also have expressed more confidence that inflation has stabilized though it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. The ADP numbers could add to the case that wages aren’t pressuring inflation.

From a sector standpoint, job creation was strongest in the education and health services category, which added 57,000 positions. Other significant gains came in construction (27,000), leisure and hospitality (22,000) and financial activities (12,000).
Several sectors reported job losses, including manufacturing (-11,000), natural resources and mining (-6,000) and professional and business services (-5,000).
Almost all of the jobs came from big companies with more than 500 workers, which amounted to 97,000. More

COPENHAGEN (Reuters) – Greenland’s leader was expected to hold talks on Wednesday with the Danish king in Copenhagen, after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he wanted to take control of the vast Arctic island, an autonomous territory of Denmark.Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, said on Tuesday he would not rule out using military or economic action to make Greenland part of the United States. The same day, Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., made a private visit to Greenland.Trump’s comments prompted France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, to say on Wednesday that the European Union would not let other nations attack its sovereign borders. Barrot added he did not believe the U.S. would invade Greenland, which has been part of Denmark for over 600 years.A German government spokesman said Germany stands by the international principle that borders not be changed by force.NATO did not respond on Wednesday to a request for comments on Trump’s remarks. Denmark is a member of the U.S.-led military alliance and also of the EU. Greenland, which has just 57,000 people but is more than 2 million square km in size, is not part of the EU but it is of NATO through its links with Denmark.Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede, leader of a left-wing political party that supports future independence from Denmark, was due to meet King Frederik in Copenhagen later on Wednesday. The royal court gave no details on their planned meeting.While many Greenlanders dream of independence from their former colonial ruler, the king still enjoys a large measure of popularity, having spent extended periods of time in Greenland, including a four-month expedition on the ice sheet. “I’m sure the king is really the person best placed in Denmark to deal with this issue right now because he has a long history with Greenland,” Damien Degeorges, a Reykjavik-based consultant specialising in Greenland, told Reuters.”He’s popular in Greenland. So he can clearly be helpful to the Danish-Greenlandic relationship.”The royal court recently tweaked the coat of arms to more prominently display symbols of Greenland and the Faroe Islands, a move widely interpreted as underlining the royal family’s relationship with Greenland. SEMI-SOVEREIGNGreenland now controls most of its own domestic affairs as a semi-sovereign territory under the Danish realm. Its relations with Denmark have lately been strained by allegations of colonial-era mistreatment of Greenlanders.Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday she could not imagine Trump’s ambitions would lead to U.S. military intervention in Greenland.Denmark is responsible for the security and defence of Greenland, but its military capabilities there are limited to four inspection vessels, a Challenger surveillance plane, and dog sled patrols. Responding to Trump’s threat of tariffs against Denmark, Frederiksen said she did not think a trade war with the United States was a good way forward. Denmark is home to Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), Europe’s most valuable company, which makes weight-loss drug Wegovy that has become hugely popular in the United States.Still, Trump’s openly stated ambition to expand U.S. control of territory has jolted allies less than two weeks before he takes power.Greenland’s Egede has said the island is not for sale, while in his New Year speech he stepped up his push for independence. Denmark also says the territory is not for sale, and that its fate can be decided only by Greenlanders. Trump already raised the issue of the U.S. taking over Greenland in 2019 during his first presidency, but his latest remarks still left many Danes baffled.”I find it extremely ridiculous,” said Jeppe Finne Sorenson, a data engineer in the Danish capital. “We have an alliance, we’re allies. So this doesn’t really respect that.” More