Economy

The Australian Transaction (JO:TCPJ) Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) said its findings showed cryptocurrency was increasingly being exploited for money laundering, scams and money mule activities.AUSTRAC’s taskforce will ensure digital currency exchanges that provide crypto ATM services have robust practices in place to minimise the risk of their machines being used to move money associated with scams or fraud, the government agency said.A crypto ATM allows users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin and dogecoin, for cash.Currently, Australia has 1,200 operating crypto ATMs, while about 400 digital currency exchange providers are registered with AUSTRAC.The total value of the cryptocurrency market has almost doubled over the year so far. Bitcoin also hit a record high above $100,000 as the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president fuelled expectations his administration will usher in a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.AUSTRAC CEO Brendan Thomas said the agency was seeing “too many” Australians falling victim to scams carried out through cryptocurrency.”Cryptocurrency and crypto ATMs are attractive avenues for criminals looking to launder money, as they are widely accessible and make near-instant and irreversible transfers,” he said, adding that crypto ATMS who were found flouting the anti-money laundering laws would be subject to financial penalties. More

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 214,000 in November, a significant step up from the meager 12,000 gain in October.
This will be the last comprehensive look the Federal Reserve will get before its next policy meeting on Dec. 17-18.
Getting a clear picture for the Fed is essential now as policymakers look to recalibrate policy at a time when inflation rates are elevated but easing, and focus has increased on the labor market.

A pedestrian walks by a ‘hiring now’ sign in front of a U-Haul store on December 03, 2024 in San Rafael, California. 
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

After a month in which hiring was essentially muted due to storms and strikes, the jobs report due out Friday could provide a clearer picture of where the labor market is headed.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET that nonfarm payrolls increased by 214,000 in November, a significant step up from the meager 12,000 gain in October. That month’s reading was the worst for job gains since December 2020.

One of the things that will make the report so pivotal is it will be the last comprehensive look the Federal Reserve will get before its next policy meeting on Dec. 17-18. Markets are betting heavily that the Fed will approve another quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut, but that could change depending on how the jobs count plays out.
“Well, it should be a pretty healthy number, because it should bounce back from [October] when we had [Hurricane] Milton and the [Boeing strike] holding down jobs,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
In fact, the October number could get pushed higher after BLS surveyors go back and recheck the month’s data. Revisions to the payrolls reports sometimes have been massive in the post-Covid period.
That could add to a messy couple of months with economic data and make the Fed’s job more challenging.
“I would expect it to be over 200,000, and the risk would probably be to the upside if we get a real rebound,” Jones said. “But I’m not sure that this jobs report will tell us much, either, because of all the weather effects up and down. Is it really going to give us a clear view of the future, or is it just going to be more muddy data to deal with?”

Important for the Fed

Getting a clear picture for the Fed is essential now as policymakers look to recalibrate policy at a time when annual inflation rates are elevated but easing, and focus has increased on the labor market.
Aside from the October report, the jobs picture has been showing a mostly slower trend since around April, with payroll gains averaging about 128,000 new jobs a month as the unemployment rate has drifted up to 4.1%. Fed policymakers want to take their benchmark short-term borrowing rate down to a more neutral level as they balance their focus between inflation and employment.
“This is absolutely going to be noisy, because a storm and strike disruption affects two months’ worth of data, the data for the month in which people aren’t working and the next month when they return to work,” said BNY economist Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed official who served 24 years at the central bank.
“The way the Fed sees it is that the slowing in nonfarm payrolls over the course of 2024 was basically settling to trend — trend being something a little above 100,000 jobs created a month — and that was not worrisome,” he added. “It was actually welcome, because, you know, trend is sustainable.”
Indeed, the most recent signals point to a job market leveling off but not worsening.

State of the labor market

Initial weekly unemployment insurance claims have held in a fairly steady range around 220,000, though continuing claims earlier in November had hit their highest level in about three years. Together, the numbers indicate that companies are not laying off workers en masse but also aren’t rehiring those who do lose their jobs.
A Fed economic report Wednesday — its “Beige Book” summary of current conditions — described hiring as “subdued as worker turnover remained low and few firms reported increasing their headcount.” The report said layoffs are “low” but employers indicated caution about the future pace of hiring, with more enthusiasm about entry-level workers and skilled trades.
Job openings increased in October while the hiring rate fell and those leaving their jobs voluntarily increased, according to BLS data this week.
The Fed will have to weigh all of those factors, plus worries about rising inflation, when it makes its rate decision and lays out its outlook for the future.
If the labor market can remain steady, then it shouldn’t put additional pressure on inflation, Reinhart said. “So the strategy is, try to get demand at trend, because if growth and demand are at trend, then you should preserve the current state of the labor market, and the labor market is roughly in balance,” he added.
In addition to the headline payrolls gain, the unemployment rate is expected to nudge up to 4.2% as the labor force sees re-entrants from October. Also, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on the month and 3.9% from a year ago, both down slightly from the previous month. More

President-elect Donald J. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that seek to replace the dollar in trade or undermine its global reserve currency status.When Republicans nominated Donald J. Trump to be their presidential candidate over the summer, the party’s platform included a pledge to maintain the role of the United States dollar as the world’s reserve currency.Since winning the election, Mr. Trump has indicated that he wants to deliver on that promise. Over the last week he warned that if the group of nations known as BRICS countries — which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — tried to create their own currency to rival the dollar, he would punish them with 100 percent tariffs and shut them out of U.S. markets.“There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.The warning was intended to preserve the dollar’s premier status, but economists and analysts suggested that it could have the opposite effect. Although it appears unlikely that the BRICS would be able to create their own currency, the aggressive use of tariffs and sanctions by the United States is the reason that other nations have increasingly been considering alternatives to the dollar. By making such threats, Mr. Trump could end up accelerating that trend.“Threatening retaliation against the unlikely creation of a BRICS currency only reinforces the rest of the world’s concerns about the U.S. willingness to wield dollar dominance as an economic and geopolitical weapon,” said Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “This will intensify other countries’ attempts to diversify away from use of the dollar for international payments and for foreign exchange reserves.”The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency for about a century and has served as the world’s reserve currency since the end of World War II. It makes up the majority of foreign exchange reserves held in global central banks and is widely used in international transactions such as trade and loans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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The risk premium investors demand to hold French debt rather than German Bunds dropped on Thursday after the widely expected collapse of the French government.”We follow very closely what is gong on in France,” Commission spokesman Balazs Ujavri told the briefing. “What we see for now is that the economic effect is rather contained and limited. The macroeconomic situation in France remains stable.”Far-right and left-wing lawmakers joined forces early this week to back a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Michel Barnier.Analysts fear France would enter a slow-burning crisis that could lead to a deterioration of sovereign creditworthiness and less economic growth.”We know that in the French constitution there are measures for scenarios in which we get to the end of the year and there is no budget,” Ujvari said, referring to the roll-over of the 2024 tax and spending structure being rolled over to 2025. More

Cambridge Realty Capital has reported key findings from the senior housing capital markets in 2024, noting operational improvements despite enduring financial challenges. The industry has experienced growth in occupancy and labor market stability, but these positive trends are offset by persistent margin compression and high financing costs.Operational advancements have been achieved with steady increases in occupancy rates, suggesting a gradual recovery. The labor market has also reached a level of stability, providing operators with more predictable workforce management. Rental rates have risen by over 5% compared to the previous year, yet disparities remain, with market leaders commanding significantly higher rents.Despite these improvements, operating margins are still under pressure, with many facilities operating below the nearly 30% margins seen in earlier years. This ongoing trend reflects a structural shift in the industry, with rent increasingly covering service costs rather than real estate expenses. Rising labor and insurance costs continue to consume a large portion of revenue, although inflation-driven rent hikes are aiding communities in maintaining dollar levels sufficient for debt service.The cost of debt remains high, with banks focusing on existing customers and extending loan maturities. Private lenders are active but selective, and while HUD loans are reliable, they come with longer closing timelines due to high demand. Agencies are re-entering the market but offering lower loan-to-value ratios.A significant increase in distressed sales has been a notable trend in 2024, with record-breaking transaction volumes. These sales often result in lower-than-expected prices per unit, allowing new buyers to enter the market with less financial pressure from real estate costs, potentially leading to innovative operating models.Looking forward, Cambridge Realty Capital remains cautiously optimistic for 2025, anticipating more stable margins and improved access to capital. This outlook is based on the groundwork laid in 2024, despite the headwinds the industry continues to face.Cambridge Realty Capital, established in 1983, specializes in providing FHA-insured HUD loans and conventional mortgage financing. As a seasoned HUD lender, the company has completed over 500 transactions totaling more than $6.5 billion.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

PARIS (Reuters) -French President Emmanuel Macron was meeting allies and senior politicians on Thursday as he sought to swiftly appoint a new prime minister, a day after far-right and leftist lawmakers toppled Michel Barnier’s minority government.Francois Bayrou, whose name is often cited by French media as a possible successor to Barnier, was due to have lunch with Macron, Le Parisien newspaper and other media reported. Bayrou is a veteran centrist politician and a close Macron ally.Outgoing defence minister Sebastien Lecornu is also cited as a possible candidate for prime minister. There was no word yet of a possible Macron meeting with him.Three sources told Reuters on Wednesday that Macron aimed to appoint a replacement swiftly, with one saying he wanted to do so before a ceremony on Saturday to reopen Notre-Dame Cathedral – renovated after a devastating fire. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is among world leaders expected to attend.Allies in Macron’s own camp joined the chorus urging swift action. After the late June and early July snap elections, it took Macron nearly two months to appoint Barnier.”I recommend that he proceed quickly to the appointment of a prime minister, it’s important, we must not leave things up in the air,” National Assembly president Yael Braun-Pivet told France Inter radio before meeting Macron around noon.Macron, who is due to give a televised address to the nation at 8pm (1900 GMT), will also meet the head of the Senate at 1400 GMT, French media said. Barnier, a veteran conservative who became prime minister barely three months ago, will become the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history when Macron approves his resignation. The two men met for over an hour on Thursday morning, French media said. Barnier had been due to hand in his resignation during that meeting but there was still no official confirmation after he left the Elysee presidential palace.TURMOILThe political turmoil in France further weakens a European Union already reeling from the implosion of Germany’s coalition government, and comes just weeks before Trump returns to the White House.Any new prime minister will face the same challenges that led to Barnier’s downfall, notably pushing the 2025 budget through a deeply divided parliament at a time when France needs to fix ailing public finances.”This is the logical conclusion of what France and its lawmakers are at the moment: a mess,” 75-year old Parisian Paulo told Reuters, commenting on the latest developments.Macron precipitated the current crisis with an ill-fated decision to call the snap election in June. He has a mandate until 2027 but faces growing calls to resign.”The main culprit for the current situation is Emmanuel Macron,” Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally (RN) told TF1 TV late on Wednesday.A French president cannot be pushed out unless two thirds of lawmakers decide he has gravely failed to fulfil his role, according to a never-yet-invoked article of the constitution.Some 64% of voters want Macron to resign, according to the Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL broadcaster. A small majority of voters approve of parliament bringing down Barnier, but many are worried about its economic and political consequences, the poll showed. Under French constitutional rules, there can be no new parliamentary election before July.”Until potential new elections, ongoing political uncertainty is likely to keep the risk premium on French assets elevated,” SocGen analysts said in a note. “Political uncertainty is likely to dampen both investment and consumer spending.”The political uncertainty has been unnerving investors in French sovereign bonds and stocks for weeks.French bonds and stocks rallied on Thursday on what some traders said was profit-taking following the widely expected outcome of the no-confidence vote. But the relief rally is unlikely to last, given the scale of political uncertainty.The fall of France’s government leaves the country without a clear path towards reducing its fiscal deficit and the most likely outcome is less belt-tightening than previously planned, credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s (NYSE:SPY) (S&P) said. More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will trim 25 basis points (bps) from its deposit rate on Dec. 12, according to all but two of 75 economists polled by Reuters, and at least 100 bps more next year as the economy slows and fears mount about U.S. tariffs.For now, the ECB is unlikely to react to heightened political turmoil in Europe – the French government collapsed as expected on Wednesday.U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, and whether they trigger a wider trade war, raise further questions for ECB policy next year.Most ECB watchers have kept their rate views, including end-2025 forecasts, unchanged from a survey taken last month, as they await further developments before making big changes.All 75 economists barring two in the Dec. 2-5 Reuters poll predicted another 25 bps cut next week, the fourth such move this year. The other two expected a 50 bps cut.”A 25 bps move remains our baseline, and comments from most Governing Council members appear to back such a step as well. Even in the case of a 25 bps cut, the big uncertainties involved in the outlook will likely keep the overall message rather soft and open-minded,” said Jan von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea.”Trump’s capability to increase uncertainty in the euro area is large…(and) the fact both Germany and France lack a strong government with a lot of political influence makes it very challenging for Europe to make rapid and well-defined decisions.”There had been some speculation in markets recently about a larger half-point move, but comments from ECB officials suggest that is unlikely. “As the data currently stands, I think a reduction of 0.25 percentage points is conceivable, not more,” Robert Holzmann, one of the most hawkish Governing Council members, said earlier this week.An 80% majority of respondents, 60 of 75, predicted two more deposit rate cuts next quarter, a bigger majority than around 70% in November. Just over half, 39, predicted another two quarter-point reductions in the second quarter, taking the rate to 2.00%.An over 75% majority of economists expected rates at 2.00% or lower by end-2025, up from about 70% in November and around 60% in October, suggesting risks are skewed towards more cuts than fewer.Interest rate futures are pricing in over 150 bps of ECB rate reductions by end-2025, twice what is priced in for the U.S. Federal Reserve, meaning an already retreating euro could remain weak in the near term, a separate Reuters survey showed.TRADE THREAT TRUMPS DOMESTIC POLITICSAn overwhelming majority of the same panel of economists surveyed last month said Trump’s tariffs would significantly affect Europe’s economy in coming years.”We downgraded our growth forecast materially for 2025, as a result of the Trump tariffs. We don’t think Trump is very sympathetic to the EU and will not hold back,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.”If you look at the geopolitical risks around the coming year with France, Germany, Trump, all these things really skew to the downside. If you get one of these or multiple of these geopolitical risks materialising in a big way, then it’s easy to see a scenario where the ECB has to cut to 1.5%.”The euro zone economy is forecast to grow 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, poll medians showed, a slight downgrade from last month.Inflation, at 2.3% in November, is expected to fall back to the 2% target in the second quarter of 2025 and stay around there at least until 2027, according to median poll forecasts.ECB staff will update their own economic forecasts at the December meeting.(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) More