Economy

Le Pen’s warning shot comes as she faces a major potential setback, with prosecutors seeking an obligatory five-year ban from public office for her alleged role in embezzling EU funds. She denies the allegations. If judges convict Le Pen and uphold the sought sentence, she would be barred from running in the 2027 presidential election which many believe she could win.Some analysts have suggested Le Pen’s legal woes could accelerate her plans to bring down the government. “We will not accept that the purchasing power of the French be once again hit. This is a red line and if this red line is crossed, we will vote no-confidence,” Le Pen told RTL radio.Faced with a starkly divided parliament, Barnier has suggested using a tough measure – invoking article 49.3 of the constitution – to ram the budget bill through the legislature without a vote. That would inevitably trigger a no-confidence vote that the RN and the left could use to bring down the government.Le Pen also said on Wednesday the RN opposed increasing the tax burden on households, entrepreneurs or pensioners and that so far these demands were not reflected in the upcoming budget.Le Pen has made cost-of-living concerns a central plank of her electoral offer, which has traditionally focused on anti-immigrant and security issues. Inflation fears also helped propel U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to victory over Kamala Harris in this month’s U.S. election.When asked about Le Pen’s threat, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told CNews television: “Those who would topple the government will deprive the country of a budget and create disorder and chaos.” Le Pen also said on Wednesday the RN would vote for far-left LFI party’s proposal to drop President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform. Left-wing lawmakers in the lower house have said they would trigger a vote of no-confidence against the government.To survive, Barnier needs the RN to abstain from the vote. While some RN lawmakers have already brandished the threat of not cooperating, its head Jordan Bardella has said the decision will depend on whether the final cut of the budget reflects their demands. More

DUBLIN (Reuters) – Parties vying to lead the next Irish government are luring voters with ambitious spending plans, banking on a continued boom in foreign multinational corporate tax revenues that could be threatened by the incoming U.S. administration.With a strong economy, a population set to rise by up to 8% by 2030 and infrastructure provision 25% lower than many other high-income European countries, whichever party wins the Nov. 29 election will need to spend more just to keep up.However the scale of the commitments and potential risks have become a theme of the campaign. An Irish Times headline on Sunday suggested “someone should take Simon Harris’s phone away before he bankrupts the country”, noting the prime minister’s nightly unveiling of “all sorts of goodies” on Instagram.”The U.S. election has appreciably changed the risk and we seem to be going ahead as if nothing has changed but I think something very significant has changed,” said Professor John McHale, head of economics at the University of Galway.The risk centres around the unique exposure of Ireland’s low-tax business model to the United States. Ireland’s recent big budget surpluses have been driven by a near seven-fold increase in corporate tax receipts over the last decade, mainly paid by U.S. firms.PRECARIOUS POSITIONIf enacted, President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to slash corporate tax rates to Irish levels, incentivise industries to bring production back to the U.S and impose trade tariffs could jeopardise the continued growth in corporate tax receipts forecast by the Irish finance ministry.Harris’ Fine Gael and outgoing coalition partner Fianna Fail – the favourites to lead the next government – have promised to hike spending by 5.5% to 7% a year to 2030, cut taxes and invest the remaining surplus in the country’s sovereign wealth fund.The main opposition Sinn Fein party favours a higher level of spending growth and putting less money aside.The plans suggest recent “fiscal slippage” will continue after the election, Goodbody Chief Economist Dermot O’Leary said, calling on parties instead to stick with a fiscal rule introduced in 2021 to cap spending increases at 5% a year.The outgoing government broke its own rule in three of the four budgets since its introduction.Not everyone agrees that the international risks should spell more caution, given Ireland’s improved financial balance sheet and debt dynamics.”We have a good hand to deal at the moment and I think that’s reflected in some of the optimism you’re seeing in the policies,” said Kevin Timoney, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers.”We have this big infrastructure gap and we have money to try close it and that can help support the medium term picture. We don’t want to be laggards in some of these areas that are strategically important for the economy.” More

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$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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NEW YORK (Reuters) -A federal judge on Tuesday rejected Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)’s bid to recoup about $75.2 million left over from a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission insider trading settlement with billionaire Steven A. Cohen’s former hedge fund SAC Capital Management.U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero in Manhattan said Wyeth, a drugmaker Pfizer bought in 2009, did not qualify as a victim of the securities violations underlying the SEC case, and therefore was not entitled to the funds.Marrero directed that the money be paid to the U.S. Treasury, which the SEC had requested.Pfizer and its lawyers did not immediately respond to requests for comment.The dispute stemmed from a $602 million civil settlement tied to trading in Wyeth and drugmaker Elan by Mathew Martoma, who worked at an SAC unit and was later convicted, based on a neurologist’s tips about a 2008 Alzheimer’s drug trial.SAC pleaded guilty to fraud in 2013 and paid $1.8 billion in settlements with the SEC and other authorities.The SEC had $75.2 million left over after compensating Wyeth and Elan investors for their losses. Pfizer said it deserved that money because the neurologist, Sidney Gilman, breached a fiduciary duty to Wyeth, where he was a consultant.But the judge said the reputational harm that Wyeth suffered from the scandal did not mean it also suffered financial harm.”The court certainly agrees that corporations whose secrets are misappropriated for insider trading purposes are generally victims of wrongdoing,” he wrote. “But Pfizer has failed to allege how the insider trading scheme and Wyeth’s subsequent reputational harm qualifies as pecuniary harm for purposes of distributing the disgorged funds.”Marrero added that a $7 billion decline in Wyeth’s market value following the drug trial had nothing to do with the insider trading scheme, which became public three years later.Cohen was not criminally charged, but accepted a two-year ban on managing outside money to end an SEC probe into his supervision of Martoma.He changed SAC Capital’s name to Point72 Asset Management in 2014, and stopped trading for that fund in September. Cohen is worth $21.3 billion according to Forbes magazine.The case is SEC v CR Intrinsic Investors LLC et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 12-08466. More

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.6%.In a Reuters survey of 28 market participants conducted this week, all respondents expected the rates to stay unchanged.Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. More

The PBOC kept its one-year LPR at 3.10% after cutting it by 25 basis points in October. The five-year LPR, which determines mortgage rates, was left at 3.60% after a 25 bps cut in the prior month.The LPR is determined by the PBOC based on considerations from 18 designated commercial banks, and is used as a benchmark for lending rates in the country.Analysts had widely expected the LPR to remain unchanged this month, with Beijing seen awaiting more clarity on what a second Donald Trump presidency will entail for Sino-U.S. trade before unlocking more economic support.China rolled out a slew of aggressive stimulus measures since late September to support growth. But the country held off on outlining more targeted fiscal measures, amid caution over increased trade tariffs under Trump, who has vowed to impose a 60% import tariff on all Chinese goods.The PBOC was also seen as having limited space to cut interest rates further, especially as the Chinese yuan was battered following Trump’s election. The central bank had steadily cut the LPR further into record-low territory over the past two years to support growth.But monetary measures have so far provided limited support to the Chinese economy, which is still struggling with persistent deflation and a property market slump. More