Economy

Employment growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that seeks to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown.
To be sure, while Carlyle’s data showed anemic payroll gains, other indicators painted a brighter picture. The firm said underlying GDP growth was running at 2.7% annualized pace

Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Employment growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that seeks to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown.
The firm said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 from the month, which would be even less than the 22,000 gain in August reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

With the BLS shuttered and data releases suspended until the impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to provide alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is heading.
Carlyle’s data jibes somewhat with other releases showing little hiring growth.
Last week, payrolls processing firm ADP reported that a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, though that included a reduction stemming from adjustments to BLS revisions.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also reported last week that while layoffs declined in September, the level of planned hiring for firms hit its lowest since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the impact from the global financial crisis.
To be sure, while Carlyle’s data showed anemic payroll gains, other economic indicators painted a brighter picture.

The firm said underlying gross domestic product growth was running at 2.7% annualized pace in September while business investment accelerated 4.8% on a three-month average annual rate. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy declined 3.8% while services excluding shelter, a key Federal Reserve data point, rose 3.3%.
Carlyle said it derived its data from its “expansive global portfolio” that includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.
Though the firm saw weaker employment data, Goldman Sachs recently said its “underlying job growth” tracker indicated a gain of 80,000 positions in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs, to levels not seen in 10 years. More

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A paycheck scheduled on Oct. 15 for the 1.3 million members in the armed services might convince legislators and the White House that missing the date won’t be worth the political cost.
While the respective sides have dug in their heels regarding the fiscal budget, missing a pay period could rile public anger. At the least, it encourages a temporary bill known as a continuing resolution.

Soldiers march during a military parade to commemorate the U.S. Army’s 250th Birthday in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2025.
Nathan Howard | Reuters

As the government shutdown drags on with little hope of a quick resolution, a situation involving the U.S. military could push the warring factions in Washington to come to an agreement.
No, soldiers won’t be called into duty to force Congress to get back to work.

However, a looming paycheck scheduled in the middle of October for the 1.3 million active-duty members of the armed services might convince legislators and the White House that missing the date won’t be worth the political cost.
“We believe the military pay date on Oct. 15 could be an important forcing event for a compromise to restore funding and expect the shutdown to end by mid-October,” Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Alec Phillips said in a client note.
The Wall Street firm noted that prediction markets are placing high odds that the shutdown will last beyond the deadline. Polymarket reflects a 71% probability that the shutdown will run past Oct. 14.

While the respective sides have dug in their heels regarding the fiscal budget, missing a pay period could rile public anger. At the least, it could lead to a temporary bill known as a continuing resolution to allow government to operate, the Goldman economists said.
If not, then that could mean an even longer stalemate.

“We expect pressure to build on both parties to reach a compromise before then,” they wrote. “That said, if this pressure leads to an alternative outcome — the Dept. of Defense might find a way to pay troops despite the funding lapse, or Congress might come under pressure to approve funding for that specific issue — there are few other specific forcing events on the calendar that could lead to a restoration of funding.”
The observations come with scant hopes of a resolution.
The Senate has scheduled a vote for Monday at 5:30 p.m., but observers expect little progress. President Donald Trump has threatened that if no agreement is reached, some of the temporary layoffs resulting from the impasse could become permanent.
There are myriad issues that could force Congress’ hand beyond the military pay. Data releases that policymakers rely on have been suspended, airport delays are a looming possibility depending on whether Transportation Security Administration workers show up, and most other government services are closed pending an agreement.
Still, there are fears that neither side will budge.
“Concerns over military pay, TSA operations, or delayed mortgage payments for service members could become catalysts for compromise,” Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, said in a note. “While a short-term continuing resolution remains the most likely outcome, we do not rule out the risk of a prolonged shutdown extending until November.”
Other dates to watch include a potential Oct. 13 expiration of Women Infant Children benefits, Nov. 1 when open enrollment begins for Obamacare and Nov. 21, when Congress is scheduled to break for Thanksgiving at the busiest period of travel during the year.
However, the risk remains that the shutdown will continue, according to Pimco analysts.
“Shutdowns are easy, but reopenings are harder, and this one – which is the first full shutdown since 2013 – seems particularly intractable, at least for now,” the firm said in a note. More