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    The US economic boom is a mirage

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    BoE expected to cut interest rates despite looser fiscal policy

    $1 for 4 weeksThen $75 per month. Complete digital access to quality FT journalism. Cancel anytime during your trial.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    Does Gen Z have it tougher than previous generations?

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    Pakistan loses its edge in supplying China with sesame seeds

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    China lawmakers gather to approve long-awaited fiscal stimulus

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    Public funding for nature conservation stalls at COP16, eyes on private investment

    CALI, Colombia (Reuters) – Wealthy nations appeared to hit a limit with how much they are willing to pay to conserve nature around the world, instead shifting their focus at the two-week U.N. biodiversity summit toward discussions of private money filling the funding gap.At the COP16 negotiations in Cali, Colombia, countries failed to figure out how they would mobilize $200 billion annually in conservation funding by 2030, including $30 billion that would come directly from rich nations.That money, pledged two years ago as part of the landmark Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework agreement, is meant to finance activities that boost nature, such as sustainable farming or patrolling wildlife reserves.But there was no consensus as talks dragged on beyond the summit’s scheduled end on Friday, during which dozens of delegations departed. By Saturday morning’s roll call, there was no longer a quorum among the nearly 200 nations for an agreement to pass, forcing organizers to abruptly suspend the meeting.”I am both saddened and enraged by the non-outcome of COP16,” said Shilps Gautam, chief executive of project finance firm Opna.”The wild thing about the nature financing discussions is that the numbers discussed are already a pittance.”Human activities such as farming, mining, and urban development are increasingly pushing nature into crisis, with 1 million or so plant and animal species thought to be at risk of extinction. Climate change, a result of fossil fuel burning, is also adding to nature’s woes by raising temperatures and disrupting weather cycles.Countries will meet again in Azerbaijan next week for the U.N.’s COP29 climate summit, which again will be focused on the steep need for funding from wealthy nations to their poorer counterparts to help shoulder climate costs.LITTLE MONEY FROM RICH NATIONSEven before the talks broke down, developed nations had signaled an unwillingness to offer large amounts of cash.European governments including Germany and the Netherlands have slashed their foreign aid budgets over the last year, while France and the U.K. are also cutting back.Government development money specifically targeted at nature conservation abroad fell to $3.8 billion in 2022 compared with $4.6 billion in 2015, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.At COP16, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres demanded that countries make significant new contributions to the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund.The response was muted. Nations at COP16 pledged $163 million in contributions to the fund, bringing total contributions to roughly $400 million – far from a major contribution to the $30 billion target from nations by 2030.The United States, which is not a party to U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity, has not contributed. “The public money is already leveraged as much as we can,” Florika Fink-Hooijer, the European Union’s director general of environment, told reporters at the summit.”We now have to look at other sources of funding.”PRIVATE CASHWhen it came to going after private capital, delegates at the COP16 summit agreed to a plan to charge pharmaceutical and other companies for their use of genetic information in the research and development of new commercial products.Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Merck, AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) and Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) did not respond to request for comment on the deal.Experts estimate the plan could generate about $1 billion annually.That still doesn’t cover the billions needed to halt the collapse of ecosystems, like the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) rainforest or coral reefs. The world will need to devise ways for enticing private investment in nature-friendly projects, said Marcos Neto, director of global policy at the U.N. Development Program.Some tools include green bonds or debt-for-nature swaps, whereby countries refinance their debt at lower interest rates in order to spend the savings on conservation. The World Economic Forum estimates that debt-for-nature swaps could generate $100 billion in nature funding. More

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    Dollar dips as US election outcome remains uncertain, Fed rate cut looms

    SYDNEY (Reuters) – The dollar slipped in Asia on Monday as investors braced for a potentially pivotal week for the global economy as the United States chooses a new leader and, probably, cuts interest rates again with major implications for bond yields.The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876 but faces resistance around $1.0905, while the dollar dipped 0.3% on the yen to 152.45 yen. The dollar index eased 0.3% to 103.94.Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.Analysts believe Trump’s policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate.Dealers said the early dip in the dollar might be linked to a well-respected poll that showed Harris taking a surprise 3-point lead in Iowa, thanks largely to her popularity with female voters.”It is widely considered that a Trump win will be positive for the USD, though many feel this outcome has been discounted,” said Chris Weston, an analyst at broker Pepperstone. “A Trump presidency with full control of Congress could be most impactful, as one would expect a solid sell-off in Treasuries resulting in a spike higher in the USD.””A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in ‘Trump trades’ quickly reversed and priced out,” he added. “The USD, gold, bitcoin and U.S. equity would likely head lower.”Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing.Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, and an 83% probability of a similar-sized move in December.”We are pencilling in four more consecutive cuts in the first half of 2024 to a terminal rate of 3.25%-3.5%, but see more uncertainty about both the speed next year and the final destination,” said Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius.”Both our baseline and probability-weighted forecasts are now a bit more dovish than market pricing.”The Bank of England also meets Thursday and is expected to cut by 25 basis points, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points and the Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its meeting on Tuesday and again is expected to hold rates steady.The BoE’s decision has been complicated by a sharp sell-off in gilts following the Labour government’s budget last week, which also dragged the pound lower.Early Monday, sterling had regained some of its losses to stand at $1.2963, some way from last week’s trough at $1.2841. [GB/]More stimulus is also expected from China’s National People’s Congress, which is meeting from Monday through Friday. Sources told Reuters last week that Beijing is considering approving next week the issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.40 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy. More

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    Morning Bid: Navigating US election, Fed, bond market tumult

    (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Global markets will be overwhelmingly dominated by the U.S. presidential election and interest rate decision later this week, so Monday’s activity may be driven by position adjustments as investors take in the latest polls, newsflow, earnings and economic indicators.If Friday’s moves are any guide, Monday promises to be something of a rollercoaster with no clear, unifying signal. Bond yields shot up to fresh multi-month highs on election and fiscal jitters, reversing an earlier fall on the back of surprisingly weak U.S. employment data, and the dollar duly strengthened.But Wall Street shrugged off any political or deficit fears. Latching onto strong earnings and a renewed conviction that the Fed will cut rates on Thursday – and probably again next month – stocks rallied strongly.Can this ‘risk on’ sentiment prevail with the U.S. election so close, and with bond yields on the rise not just in the US but around the world? The ‘MOVE’ index of implied volatility in U.S. Treasuries is the highest in over a year, and British gilt yields are the highest in a year too. The ‘bond vigilantes’ suffered a bit of whiplash after the U.S. payrolls data on Friday, but soon took charge again.So traders in Asia on Monday will have to weigh up whether they go with upbeat U.S. earnings and rate cut optimism, or hunker down in the face of rising yields, a stronger dollar and heightened nervousness on the eve of the U.S. election. Last week was challenging for Asian markets. The MSCI Asia/Pacific ex-Japan index fell for a fourth week in a row last week, and October’s slide of 4.9% marked the worst month since August last year.After taking in $32.2 billion inflows in September, Asia ex-Japan equity funds recorded “heavy redemptions” in the last three weeks, according to flows tracker EPFR. The latest week saw investors pull over $4 billion from Asia ex-Japan equity funds, extending their longest outflow streak since the fourth quarter of last year.Much of that is down to outflows from China funds as some of the hyper excitement sparked by Beijing’s raft of measures to support the domestic economy and markets cools off. But attention will once again center on Beijing this week. China’s top legislative body the National People’s Congress meets on Nov. 4-8, with markets widely expecting the approval of more fiscal stimulus measures. This week also sees the release of Chinese economic indicators including trade and lending. Other highlights include interest rate decisions from Australia and Malaysia, GDP figures for Indonesia and the Philippines, and earnings from Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Nissan (OTC:NSANY).Japanese markets are closed for Culture Day on Monday so yen liquidity will be thinner than usual, and yen trading could be choppy, especially given the upward pressure on long-dated yields overseas.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- India manufacturing PMI (October)- U.S. presidential election polls- U.S. bond market weakness More