Economy

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – FOMO and TINA are two English-language acronyms that have become common parlance in financial markets. Together, they help explain the relentless rise of U.S. equities – a trend that now should probably be raising red flags.    Investors’ “fear of missing out” (FOMO) on a two-year bull run has helped the S&P 500 hit 47 record highs this year. And this momentum shows few signs of waning because if investors want equity exposure, “there is no alternative” (TINA) to the United States, at least not if the relative strength of U.S. economic data and corporate profits is your guide.     In many ways, the latter trend is feeding the former, and the symbiotic relationship between the two only seems to be getting stronger.IT’S ALL RELATIVEThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up more than 20% this year, compared to 16% for Japan’s Nikkei, 14% for Chinese blue chips and Asian stocks ex-Japan, 10% for euro zone stocks, and 8% for Britain’s FTSE 100.Wall Street’s outperformance has, of course, been flattered by a handful of Big Tech names: the FAANG index is up a whopping 34% this year. But the equal-weighted S&P 500’s year-to-date gains of 15% are still better than investors are getting almost anywhere else.While these lopsided returns might suggest U.S. equities are “overbought”, the underlying fundamentals suggest otherwise. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently projecting third quarter annualized growth of 3.4%, the highest since the model’s initial estimate in July. Corporate America also boasts a very positive outlook. While earnings growth is only expected to be around 5% in the third quarter, this figure is expected to bounce back well into double figures in the coming quarters and settle around 15% for 2025 overall, according to LSEG I/B/E/S estimates.    Little wonder Goldman Sachs’ equity strategists reckon the S&P 500 is on course to reach 6000 points by the end of the year. It could even reach 6270 if markets see a replication of historical October-December election year patterns, they add. Meanwhile, Germany – the largest economy in Europe and fourth largest in the world – is flirting with its second consecutive annual contraction, something the advanced manufacturing hub hasn’t seen in over 20 years. China – the world’s second-largest economy – is in the midst of a major property crisis and flirting with deflation. This has prompted an unprecedented policy response from Beijing that many experts still don’t think will be enough to get the economy firing on all cylinders. Then there’s Japan, which appears to be so concerned about stalling its economy and spooking investors that it’s hesitant to raise interest rates by more than a few basis points.    Foreign investors have clearly taken notice: their share of the entire U.S. equity market is now a record 18%, Goldman Sachs figures show.BLOATED AND EXPENSIVE    Is the U.S. stock market morphing into a mirror image of the U.S. bond market? Parallels are emerging: they are both the most liquid markets in their respective asset classes; they offer investors the ‘safest’ securities; and they dwarf all rivals by a considerable distance.    Indeed, Wall Street has been a veritable money machine for investors this year, especially the mega caps sitting on huge cash piles and boasting credit ratings comparable to those of the federal government.     It’s therefore unsurprising that the U.S. share of the global equity market cap has climbed to a record high 72%. Who wouldn’t want a slice of that pie?This level of concentration cannot last forever, so investors should be wary of buying U.S. equities at current levels, right?    Maybe, but maybe not.       True, U.S. stocks are the most expensive in the developed world by some distance, based on long-term valuations measured by Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE), and are more expensive than they have been relative to global stocks for more than two decades.But, worryingly for U.S. bears, investors are unlikely to dramatically reallocate any time soon. “Institutional investors are getting forced into the market right now given ‘FOMU’: fear of materially underperforming benchmark equity indices,” Goldman’s Scott Rubner wrote this week, providing investors with yet another acronym. And bull markets that celebrate their second birthday have historically tended to last multiple years thereafter, Ryan Detrick at Carson Group has found.    So U.S. bears might be correct that equity markets will eventually mean revert, but these investors risk underperforming and losing clients long before that happens.(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Christina Fincher) More

(Reuters) – American Express (NYSE:AXP) reported third-quarter profit above Wall Street estimates on Friday, benefiting from disciplined expense management that helped cushion a blow from softer fee growth.Shares of AmEx fell 2% before the opening bell even as the credit card giant raised its profit forecast for 2024.The company’s affluent customers have allowed it to maintain relatively smaller provisions for credit losses compared with peers that serve a broader spectrum of customers, including those with lower income.It has also showed restraint in managing rewards and other expenses, allowing it to outdo profit expectations even when revenue growth decelerates.”(This quarter is) another proof point of management’s ability to flex expenses to hit earnings per share (EPS) targets when top line is softer,” said Citi analyst Keith Horowitz.AmEx’s total expenses were $12.08 billion in the quarter, lower than expectations of $12.74 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.Revenue rose 8% to $16.64 billion but fell short of the $16.67 billion estimate. Discount revenue – the fee it earns from merchants for facilitating transactions – rose 4%, while analysts had expected 5.3% growth.”We do not need double-digit revenue growth to hit mid-teens EPS because we are disciplined with our operating expenses. Our credit is also very, very strong,” Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec told Reuters in an interview.Profit rose 2% to $2.51 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30. On a per-share basis, it earned $3.49 versus the $3.28 that analysts had forecast.The company now sees 2024 EPS between $13.75 and $14.05, higher than the earlier range of $13.30 to $13.80. “Expectations were elevated, but we believe the growth opportunities remain large and the valuation remains attractive,” William Blair analysts said in a note. More

(Reuters) -Futures pointed to a higher open for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on Friday as technology shares broadly advanced and investors parsed corporate results, while Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) jumped after beating subscriber growth estimates.Shares of Netflix gained 6.4% in premarket trading after the streaming giant topped Wall Street estimates for subscriber additions and said it expected continued growth through the end of the year. Most of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, which have driven much of Wall Street’s rally this year, were higher in premarket trading, with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) up 2% after data showed a jump in new iPhone sales in China.Chip heavyweight Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 1.2%, extending gains from Thursday following strong results from contract chipmaker TSMC, which lifted semiconductor stocks.Dow E-minis were down 55 points, or 0.13%, U.S. S&P 500 E-minis were up 14 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 112.5 points, or 0.55%.Mostly upbeat earnings from financial companies and broadly positive economic data have lifted the Dow and the S&P 500 to fresh record highs this week. The Dow closed at a record high on Thursday, while the S&P 500 is nearing the psychologically important 6,000 mark.All three major indexes were set to log their sixth consecutive week of gains.”The financials have responded very well to earnings. They were the first real big (sector) to report and they performed rather well. Now the attention is shifting and it’s going to be on tech and other big blue-chip companies,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive at 50 Park Investments.”Until we see stocks really get walloped or fall hard on earnings, the market’s earned the bullish benefit of the doubt.”However, stretched valuations – with the S&P 500 trading at nearly 22 times forward earnings – and high expectations for corporate results could leave stocks vulnerable to a pullback, amid indications that investors are exploring less expensive sectors.The small-cap Russell 2000 is set to outperform major indexes in the week with a roughly 2% rise. Futures tracking the index were up 0.3%. American Express (NYSE:AXP) lost 2.7% after its quarterly revenue missed estimates.Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) edged 0.4% lower after it missed first-quarter sales expectations, while oil giant SLB dipped 1% after missing third-quarter revenue estimates.Fed officials Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic are slated to speak during the day. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting have remained fairly steady throughout the week, currently standing at 90%, according to CME’s FedWatch.In economic data, single-family housing starts increased 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.027 million units in September.Meanwhile, U.S. listings of Chinese companies leapt after China’s central bank launched funding schemes aimed at boosting the equity market. Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) gained 3%, JD (NASDAQ:JD).com rose 5.3% and PDD Holdings jumped 4.1%.CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) slumped 9.8% after a report said it had named long-time executive David Joyner its new top boss. More

By David LawderWASHINGTON (Reuters) – World Bank President Ajay Banga said on Thursday that bilateral and Paris Club commercial creditors need to provide more debt forgiveness to poor debt-distressed countries, and that the development lender was working on ways to ease service costs to improve development outcomes.Banga, speaking to reporters ahead of World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings next week, said the bank has already answered calls for its share of debt relief in restructurings by providing billions of dollars in additional grants and deeply discounted loans to debtor countries.Some $16 billion to $17 billion has gone to Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia and Ghana during their slow and painful debt restructuring processes.”Effectively, what we’re doing is giving them the lifeline they need, whether you do it as a debt forgiveness or you give them a grant,” Banga said. “Debt forgiveness is required, but not from us. It’s required from those creditors. That’s the issue we’re trying to work our way through.”Banga did not specifically mention China, which has been among the largest creditors to debt-distressed countries and has been slow to agree to reductions in debt principal.Banga said that the World Bank was working with several countries on potential ways to re-profile debt to reduce servicing costs “and take the distance and put it into development, life, education, what you would call a debt-for- development swap.” More

The Canadian units of the three tobacco giants were dealt a massive blow in 2015 after a Quebec court awarded damages to some 100,000 smokers and ex-smokers who alleged the companies knew since the 1950s their product was causing cancer, other illnesses and failed to warn consumers adequately.After an appeal, a Quebec court in 2019 upheld the 2015 decision that awarded smokers in the Canadian province around C$15 billion, forcing the Canadian subsidiaries of all three companies to seek bankruptcy protection. The subsidiaries have been under a court-supervised mediation process negotiating a possible settlement since then.The allocation of the aggregate settlement amount between the tobacco giants remains unresolved, according to Philip Morris.”Although important issues with the plan remain to be resolved, we are hopeful that this legal process will soon conclude, allowing RBH (Rothmans, Benson & Hedges) and its stakeholders to focus on the future,” Philip Morris CEO Jacek Olczak said in a statement on Friday. Rothmans, Benson & Hedges is Philip Morris’ Canadian unit.British American Tobacco earlier on Friday said that the proposed plan marked a positive step towards finding a resolution. It did not provide details of the plan that Philip Morris did.BAT (LON:BATS) said its unit Imperial Tobacco Canada supported the settlement framework and structure and that the settlement would be funded by cash on hand and cash generated from the future sale of tobacco products in Canada.BAT shares fell 3% on Friday morning. Philip Morris said that voting on the plan would happen in December this year and if accepted by claimants, a hearing to consider approval of the plan would then be expected in the first half of next year. Japan Tobacco did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.($1 = 1.3792 Canadian dollars) More

Shares fell 11% in premarket trading, adding to this year’s losses, as CVS also forecast quarterly adjusted profit below estimates. Shareholders have become increasingly nervous about repeated profit forecast cuts this year as its drugstores face reimbursement pressures and high costs hit the health insurance industry.Investor Glenview Capital said earlier this month it was working with CVS to help improve operations as the company faces one of the most challenging periods in its six-decade history. Investment firm Sachem Head Capital Management built a new stake in CVS during the second quarter, according to a regulatory filing in August, amid speculation among fund managers that an activist investor may swoop in to push for changes.Lynch stepped down from her position in agreement with CVS Health (NYSE:CVS)’s board, the company said. Joyner, who is the president of the company’s pharmacy benefit manager CVS Caremark, takes over as president and CEO from Friday.”The board believes this is the right time to make a change, and we are confident that David is the right person to lead our company,” said Chairman Roger Farah.CVS forecast third-quarter adjusted profit of $1.05 to $1.10 per share, much lower than the average of analysts’ estimates of $1.70, according to data compiled by LSEG.Costs for insurers providing Medicare plans – available for people aged 65 years and above and those with disabilities – have soared in the last year due to sustained high demand from older adults for healthcare services. CVS’s third-quarter medical care ratio, the percentage of premiums spent on medical care, is significantly higher at 95.2% than estimates of 90.95%.Founded in 1963, CVS has its roots in retail pharmacy and operates more than 9,000 stores mainly in the U.S., but sales in that segment have lagged expectations due to declines in reimbursement rates and the prices of generic drugs.Inflation has also taken a toll on its front-end retail stores, resulting in several closures over the last few years.The Wall Street Journal first reported the news of Joyner’s appointment on Friday. More

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -Malaysia will introduce a slew of new taxes, cut subsidies for a widely used fuel, and raise the minimum wage from next year, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Friday as he announced a record budget spending plan of 421 billion ringgit ($98 billion).Anwar said the government was on track to narrow the deficit to 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) next year from an estimated 4.3% in 2024.”Next year, the fiscal reforms will be more aggressive and inclusive, with the progressive expansion of tax revenue and the targeting of subsidies for those most in need,” Anwar, who is also finance minister, told parliament.Since taking office in 2022, Anwar has sought to trim a hefty subsidy bill and improve tax collections to reduce dependency on oil and gas revenues, with a medium-term goal of cutting the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP.This year the government cut blanket subsidies for diesel, electricity, and chicken, among others, as it moves to a targeted approach that mainly helps the needy. Anwar said on Friday that policy would be extended to the RON95 transport fuel in the middle of 2025.On the revenue side, the government will progressively expand the sales and services tax from next May, widening it to include commercial services, non-essential goods and premium imports such as salmon and avocados, Anwar said.It has proposed a tax on dividend incomes above 100,000 ringgit at a rate of 2% and to enforce a global minimum tax from next year.Excise duties on sugary drinks will be raised in stages from January to help reduce national obesity and diabetes rates, while a carbon tax on the iron, steel and energy industries will be implemented by 2026, Anwar said. Savings from the tax and subsidy adjustments will be channeled towards education and healthcare, while cash aid for 9 million low-income individuals will be increased to 13 billion ringgit next year from 10 billion ringgit in 2024, he said.Anwar also announced wider tax relief measures for first-time homeowners, education and health insurance premiums, among others.Budget papers released before Anwar spoke showed 52.6 billion ringgit was allocated for subsidies and social assistance in 2025, down 14.4% from this year.The government however did not announce plans to revive an unpopular goods and services tax (GST), which some analysts have said was necessary for the government to hit its fiscal targets.OCBC Senior ASEAN Economist Lavanya Venkateswaran said the GST “will likely be required at some point for fiscal consolidation”. “More importantly, if targeted RON95 subsidy rationalisation does not yield the anticipated fiscal savings, the door should remain open to eliminating these subsidies altogether,” she said in a note after the budget announcement.PROGRESSIVE WAGE POLICY IN 2025Anwar also announced plans to enforce a progressive wage policy from next year. The minimum wage will be increased to 1,700 ringgit per month from 1,500 per month from February 2025. The budget reports forecast federal revenue rising 5.5% to 339.7 billion ringgit in 2025 from 322.1 billion ringgit this year. The 2025 spending, up 3.3% on this year’s 407.5 billion ringgit spending, includes development expenditure of 86 billion ringgit and operating expenditure of 335 billion ringgit.Operating expenditure, which makes up nearly 80% of the budget, will rise 4.2% from 2024, primarily driven by a public service restructuring that will see pay hikes and salary adjustments for 1.6 million government employees, the reports said.State energy firm Petronas will pay the government a dividend of 32 billion ringgit in 2025, unchanged from this year, in anticipation of declining petroleum-related output and revenue. The government expects the economy to expand 4.5%-5.5% in 2025. This year’s growth forecast was raised to 4.8%-5.3%, from 4%-5% previously, the reports showed. The government said headline inflation was projected to remain manageable next year at between 2% to 3.5%, up from this year’s revised estimate of 1.5% to 2.5%.($1 = 4.3070 ringgit) More

Banks have been allocating larger reserves as customers deplete their savings built up during the pandemic, resulting in provisions rising to more typical levels.Fifth Third’s provision for credit losses jumped to $160 million in the quarter from $119 million a year earlier.Elevated interest rates also led to fierce competition for deposits among banks, which have bumped up the payout to retain customers from moving to rivals and higher-yielding alternatives such as money-market funds.Higher deposit costs, in turn, pressured the net interest income (NII) of banks.Fifth Third’s NII — the difference between what banks pay customers on deposits and earn as interest on loans — dipped 1% to $1.43 billion.However, wealth and asset management was a bright spot for the Cincinnati, Ohio-based bank. The unit generated record revenue of $163 million in the quarter, up 12% from the year earlier, while assets under management jumped 21% to $69 billion.Net income available to common shareholders fell to $532 million, or 78 cents per share, in the three months ended Sept. 30. It had reported $623 million, or 91 cents per share, a year earlier.The bank expects its fourth-quarter NII to rise roughly 1% over the previous three months, while average loans and leases are expected to be stable to up 1%.Shares of Fifth Third have jumped 31.6% in 2024, as of last close, outperforming the 22.5% gain in the benchmark S&P 500 index. More