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    In the Market: Fed may struggle to rid backstops of stigma amid new push

    (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve is encouraging banks to count on its long-shunned cash backstops in a bid to support its monetary policy and financial stability goals. Its latest efforts may not move the dial much. The Fed’s discount window and the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) are credit backstops where lenders can get cash against collateral such as Treasury bonds. They can also double as monetary policy tools, helping to keep interest rates close to the Fed’s policy rate. But banks have been reluctant to use them, as it can signal they are under stress. In its latest effort to get past these issues, the Fed in August told banks it was OK to count on its backstops as sources of cash in internal liquidity stress tests, exercises that large banks have to do regularly to prove to their examiners that they can quickly get cash when needed. Last month, Michael Barr, the Fed’s regulatory chief, underscored that message, saying liquidity regulations are “supportive of market functioning and the smooth implementation of monetary policy.”Over the past few weeks, I have been asking banking industry experts how effective the Fed’s move might be in achieving those goals. Their overall take: While getting more banks ready to use the Fed facilities would bolster financial stability, it will be hard to get rid of the stigma and may not do much for monetary policy.”Stigma has been around since the 20s. It’s a complicated and significant problem that will require a lot of effort to address,” said Bill Nelson, chief economist at the think-tank Bank Policy Institute. A senior executive at a large bank who requested anonymity to speak candidly said there’s still a difference between what a policy maker wants and what a supervisor will want. “If you were to ever, for whatever reason, access the discount window,” the executive said, “the first call is going to be from your supervisor asking, ‘What’s going on?’”POLICY IMPACTThe other intended impact of the Fed’s moves – helping with its monetary policy objectives — may also be frustrated. One hope behind the move is that allowing banks to rely to some extent on the backstops for liquidity would reduce their demand for reserves, or cash that they park at the central bank.Currently, banks rely heavily on reserves to meet contingent funding requirements in the internal liquidity stress tests. With the Fed’s August clarification, other easily tradable assets such as Treasury securities could become substitutes. If it works as theorized, it could give the Fed more room for quantitative tightening. That’s because the financial system needs a certain level of reserves to function smoothly, and as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, it takes out reserves. This would be a good time for the plan to work. SRF, which has largely been lying dormant, saw a surge in usage at the of the third quarter, the highest since it was set up in 2021. SRF usage has been one of the indicators the Fed has been watching as it looks for signs that liquidity is getting tighter in the financial system.The bank executive said the Fed’s clarification is unlikely to make a perceptible difference, however. That’s because the largest banks also have other liquidity tests, where they cannot count on the Fed backstops. The banker pointed to the liquidity coverage ratio, which requires that large banks have enough high-quality liquid assets — or assets such as Treasuries that can be easily traded — to meet their cash needs in times of stress. Barr also said in his speech he wants to propose additional changes to liquidity regulations, some of which could lead banks to lower their holdings of Treasuries, the bank executive said. BIG PUSH Where bank regulators have made a bigger dent so far is in addressing financial stability issues. They have been making a concerted push since the bank collapses of March 2023 to get more banks at least ready to use the backstops should they ever need it. Silicon Valley Bank failed in part because it hadn’t done the groundwork needed to borrow from the discount window, leading to delays that proved to be fatal. Barr noted in his speech that since that time, more than $1 trillion in additional collateral had been pledged to the discount window and more banks had signed up for the SRF.BPI’s Nelson said liquidity risk is the result of a market failure. “That’s something that happens when an institution is solvent and has assets that are worth more than its liabilities, but it’s just not able to convert them into liquidity fast enough at low enough cost,” Nelson said. “And in that sense, borrowing from the discount window solves the market failure.”But another bank regulation expert said the central bank’s focus on normalizing discount window access after the March 2023 failures is misplaced, calling instead for greater focus on addressing interest rate risk.”I don’t believe that discount window stigma is what caused those institutions to fail,” said Jill Cetina, a former Dallas Fed official who is now a finance professor at Texas A&M University. “What caused them to fail was the fact that they had excessive levels of interest rate risk and were illiquid.” More

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    As Hurricanes Persist, Soaring Insurance Costs Hit Commercial Real Estate

    Struggling landlords and developers are seeking leeway on coverage from their lenders — mostly in vain.Postpandemic vacancies and surging debt payments have eaten away at commercial real estate for more than two years. Even as those threats start to fade, owners of strip malls, apartment buildings and office towers face a problem that could last much longer: soaring insurance costs.The problem is familiar to homeowners across the country. The rise in climate-related natural disasters has insurance companies pushing rates substantially higher, or pulling out of markets. The rate increases have been fastest in coastal cities and towns vulnerable to damage from big storms or coastal floods, but insurers and banks are coming to terms with the notion that no area is truly safe from increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather events.Hurricane Helene, which hit Florida’s gulf coast before leaving a trail of deadly floods and landslides through Georgia and the western parts of the Carolinas, most likely caused at least $35 billion in economic losses along the way, according to an estimate by the reinsurance broker Gallagher Re.Building owners are also trapped between their insurers and lenders, who are afraid of being on the hook for catastrophic damage and won’t allow the smallest changes to policies — even those that might give a struggling borrower some breathing room.It isn’t possible to know comprehensively how many properties have gone into foreclosure solely because of insurance costs, but people in the industry say they know of deals that have fallen apart over the matter. Developers and investors say that in an industry grappling with higher interest rates and materials and labor expenses, insurance costs can tip the scales.“This current interest-rate environment has exposed the people that know what they’re doing and those that don’t,” said Mario Kilifarski, the head of asset management at Fundamental Advisors, a New York-based investor with $3.5 billion in assets.The insurance brokerage Marsh McLennan estimated that premiums on commercial properties rose an average of 11 percent across the country last year but as much as 50 percent in storm-vulnerable places like the Gulf Coast and California. This year, premiums may have doubled in some of those places, the brokerage said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed’s Kugler makes case for more rate cuts if inflation keeps easing

    The Fed cut interest rates by a half a percentage point last month and investors see another smaller move in November as the labour market is cooling and inflation pressures continue to ease.”While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well,” Kugler said, referring to the U.S. rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, of which she is a member.She argued that the labour market was already starting show signs of cooling and the Fed was keen to avoid sharper weakness.”We don’t want a drastic slowdown in the labour market,” Kugler told a European Central Bank conference. “We don’t want the labour market to weaken so much that it’s going to cause undue pain, when at the same time we have been seeing a serious reduction in terms of inflation and inflation is moving back to target.”But Kugler also noted that last week’s job report, which showed a bigger than expected jump in job creation and a fall in the unemployment rate was a welcome development, since it showed resilience in the labour market. She also argued that the Fed will not base its decisions on a single indicator and would instead look at trends, which are clearly showing that cooling has started to take hold in the labour market. “The labour market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”A stronger U.S. economy allowed the FOMC to be “patient about the timing” in reducing its policy rate and focus on bringing inflation down, Kugler said. “If progress on inflation continues as I expect, I will support additional cuts in the federal funds rate to move toward a more neutral policy stance over time,” Kugler said. Kugler said she is closely monitoring the economic effects of Hurricane Helene and geopolitical events in the Middle East.”If downside risks to employment escalate, it may be appropriate to move policy more quickly to a neutral stance,” Kugler said.”Alternatively, if incoming data do not provide confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, it may be appropriate to slow normalization in the policy rate.” More

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    US jobs market cooling but still resilient, Fed’s Kugler says

    “The lower unemployment that we saw in Friday’s jobs report is very welcome,” Kugler told a European Central Bank Conference. “We don’t want a drastic slowdown in the labor market.”Kugler said there were several metrics suggesting that the labor market was cooling back to its pre-pandemic levels but the Fed does not want it to cool so much that it causes “undue” pain. More

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    Futures muted, Fed’s Williams on rates, Google order – what’s moving markets

    1. Futures mutedUS stock futures hovered around the flatline on Tuesday, with investors reassessing the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate easing ahead of upcoming inflation data and corporate earnings.By 04:03 ET (08:03 GMT), the Dow futures contract and S&P 500 futures were mostly unchanged, while Nasdaq 100 futures had added 13 points or 0.1%.The main averages on Wall Street fell in the prior session as some traders backed away from bets that the Fed could lower borrowing costs at its next meeting in November following last week’s blockbuster September jobs report.Instead of a second-straight 50-basis point reduction, markets are now anticipating the central bank will roll out a more traditional quarter-point drawdown, the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool showed. The chances of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at their current range of 4.75% to 5.00% also increased.US Treasury yields, which typically move inversely to prices, rose. The benchmark 10-year year note even climbed above 4% for the first time in two months.2. Fed’s Williams says US economy “well positioned” for soft landing – FTThe Fed’s currently policy stance is now “really well positioned” to achieve a soft landing for the US economy, New York Fed President John Williams has said.In an interview with the Financial Times on Tuesday, Williams said the robust jobs report showed that rates are at level that “hopefully” supports ongoing strength in the world’s largest economy and its domestic labor market, while also bringing once-elevated inflation back down to the central bank’s 2% target.He defended the Fed’s super-sized rate cut last month, saying it allows borrowing costs to stay at restrictive levels but still remove “significant” pressure off the economy, the FT reported.Williams added that the latest “dot plot” of officials’ projections, which indicated two quarter-point reductions at the Fed’s two final gatherings of 2024, remains a “very good base case.” However, he stressed the central bank is on no “preset course,” mirroring comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.3. Google required to open Android to rival app storesAlphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google has been ordered by a US judge to reconfigure its Android operating system to allow rivals to make their own app marketplaces and payment options, marking a setback for the tech giant’s defense against antitrust claims.The order from US District Judge James Donato in San Francisco blocks Google from prohibiting the use of in-app payment methods for three years, and forces the search engine titan to let users download competing third-party Android app platforms.Google is also restricted from making payments to device makers to preinstall its app store.The ruling came after “Fortnite” maker Epic Games prevailed in a high-profile antitrust case against Google. Epic had accused Google of stifling competition through its app store and payments system.Google has vowed to launch an appeal, arguing that, while the changes will satisfy Epic, they will cause “unintended consequences” that will harm American consumers, developers and device makers. Shares in Alphabet dropped by 2.5% on Monday following the announcement.4. Chinese markets pare back gainsChinese markets rose sharply on Tuesday as trade resumed after the Golden Week holiday, although analysts flagged disappointment that Beijing stopped short of introducing new fiscal stimulus measures, capping gains.China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose between 4% and 6% after opening up as high as 13%.Sentiment was initially boosted by a slew of major stimulus measures announced by Chinese officials prior to the holiday period, including interest rate cuts and looser property market rules. The moves were perceived as a push by Beijing to bolster the country’s ailing economy in time to hit an annual 5% growth target.On Tuesday, China’s state economic planner said it continued to have “full confidence” the economy would achieve that goal, but investors were underwhelmed by a lack of details around an anticipated fiscal stimulus program.5. Oil slumpsOil prices fell Tuesday as traders banked some profits following a strong rally on the back of concerns that an all-out war in the Middle East will hit supplies from the oil-rich region.Muted reactions to the comments from the state economic planner in China — the world’s biggest oil importer — also weighed on crude.By 04:04 ET, the Brent contract slipped 1.4% to $79.80 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 1.5% lower at $76.00 per barrel.Both contracts rose over 3% on Monday to their highest levels since late August, adding to last week’s rally of 8%, the biggest weekly gain in over a year.Elsewhere, the latest U.S. crude oil inventory data, from the American Petroleum Institute, is due later in the session, with analysts expecting stocks to rise by 1.9 million barrels. More