Economy

Under the deal signed in April, TPG would expand coverage to 2,444 mobile network sites in regional Australia, up from 755, and would gain access to Optus’ regional 5G network as it is rolled out.The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) had started an informal review of the deal in July, seeking views on its likely impact on the pricing as well as non-pricing aspects of the mobile service infrastructure in the country.The ACCC found that the agreement was unlikely to substantially lessen competition.”The agreements will allow TPG to provide better coverage in regional areas, which will likely enhance its ability to compete during the term of the agreements, improving choice for regional consumers,” ACCC Commissioner Philip Williams said.”We are pleased with today’s decision and thank the ACCC for its consideration of our regional network sharing arrangement which will bring much needed competition to rural and regional areas,” TPG Telecom CEO Iñaki Berroeta said in a separate statement.TPG Telecom expects the expanded network to be operational in early 2025. More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Recent U.S. dollar weakness will stall in the coming three months despite financial market traders ramping up bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, according to a majority of foreign exchange strategists surveyed by Reuters.After surging about 5% against a basket of major currencies by midyear, the greenback lost almost all its gains as interest rate futures started pricing in about 100 basis points of Fed easing this year, nearly double June’s expectations.That was driven in part by July labor market data showing signs of a slowdown, bolstered by reassurance from Fed chair Jerome Powell in his latest speech at Jackson Hole hinting rate cuts were coming.Interest rate futures markets have fully priced in a 25 bp Fed rate cut this month, with around 40% priced in for another 25 bp reduction, suggesting a significant risk of a half-point cut. “There’s probably going to be a bit of volatility in markets in the next week or two. Payrolls data will ultimately determine whether the Fed goes 50 or 25 on September 18, and that will drive the short-run direction of the dollar,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.Economists in a separate Reuters poll expected data due on Friday to show 160,000 job additions in August, a rebound from July’s 114,000 increase and the unemployment rate dropping marginally to 4.2%.The euro was forecast to fall only about 0.5%, from around $1.11 currently to $1.10 by end-November, according to median forecasts in the Reuters Aug. 30-Sept. 4 of 76 FX strategists.It was then predicted to only rise back to $1.11 by end-February and to $1.12 in a year, suggesting limited gains for the common currency.”We would not push back too hard against the dollar’s soft August – the dollar starts from a position of being highly valued, the Fed can and looks likely to adjust real rates faster than other major central banks,” said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX, rates and EM strategy at Goldman Sachs.”We would, however, push back against significant further weakening in the dollar without a shift in relative growth and asset return prospects.”The latest positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, however, showed speculators had flipped their bets to net short on the greenback for the first time since February.A near-70% majority, 45 of 66, who answered an additional question said the dollar was likely to stay around the same level or rebound. The remaining 21 said it would weaken further.”Market pricing of 100 basis points of rate cuts between now and the end of the year is pretty aggressive and at this point, hard to see, given there’s still pretty decent momentum behind the U.S. economy,” added Scotiabank’s Osborne.A separate Reuters survey of economists, more consistent in their outlook through the year, predicted a 25 bp rate cut in each of the three remaining Fed meetings this year.”We think recent dollar weakness was overdone. Yes, the economy isn’t great, but apart from maybe the unemployment rate, there are very few indicators that point to a recession. Most of them point to sluggish, and we don’t think the Fed will do 50 on sluggish,” said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF).Among other major currencies, the Japanese yen, which has gained about 12% against the dollar from a 38-year low in July due to a rapid unwinding of carry trades and a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, would be one of the biggest gainers, the poll showed. It was expected to rise nearly 4% to about 139.67 per dollar in a year.(Other stories from the September Reuters foreign exchange poll) More

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States is expected to raise national security concerns about selling the iconic steel producer to Japan’s Nippon Steel.President Biden is preparing to soon block an attempt by Japan’s Nippon Steel to buy U.S. Steel on national security grounds, according to three people familiar with the matter, likely sinking a merger that became entangled in election-year politics in the United States.A decision to block the takeover would come after months of wrangling among lawmakers, business leaders and labor officials over whether a corporate acquisition by a company based in Japan — a key U.S. ally — could pose a threat to national security. A move by Mr. Biden to block the deal on those grounds could roil relations between the two nations at a moment when the United States has been trying to deepen ties with Japan amid China’s growing influence in East Asia.For months, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, has been scrutinizing the deal over potential risks. There has been mounting speculation that the Biden administration could intervene before the November election.A White House official told The New York Times that CFIUS “hasn’t transmitted a recommendation to the president, and that’s the next step in this process.”CFIUS is made up of members of the State, Defense, Justice, Commerce, Energy and Homeland Security Departments, and is led by the Treasury secretary, Janet L. Yellen.The committee sent a letter to U.S. Steel in recent weeks saying that it had found national security concerns with the transaction, one of the people familiar with the situation said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Real wages in the world’s fourth-largest economy grew 0.4% in July, rising at a slower pace than June’s 1.1% growth when it turned positive for the first time in 27 months, data from the labour ministry showed. Wages hold the key to how soon the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said broadbased increases in pay must accompany rising prices for inflation to durably meet the central bank’s 2% target. The slowdown in real wage growth in July was primarily due to fewer firms paying bonuses that month than in June, a labour ministry official said. Special payments, including the bonuses, went up 6.2% in July, followed by a revised 7.8% growth in the previous month. Since most firms pay summer bonuses in June and July, special payments’ contribution in lifting real wages would disappear after August, the official said.”From August and thereafter monthly wages (composed of regular and overtime payment) will be a deciding factor” in anchoring growth in the real wages, the official said. Nominal wages, or the average total cash earnings per worker, grew 3.6% to 403,490 yen ($2,785.19), compared with a 4.5% increase in June when it marked the fastest pace of growth since January 1997. Base pay, or regular pay, rose 2.7%, marking the fastest pace of increase in nearly 32 years, reflecting results from this spring’s labour-management wage talks. Overtime pay, a barometer of corporate strength, fell 0.1% in July, after a revised 0.9% growth in June.Japanese firms agreed to raise monthly pay by 5.10% on average this year, the biggest pay rise in 33 years. Meanwhile, the consumer price index officials use to calculate real wages, which includes fresh food prices but excludes owners’ equivalent rent, climbed 3.2%, slightly dipping from a 3.3% jump in the previous month. “Prices are still at a high level, so if prices subside a little more, real wages may continue to be positive,” the official said. ($1 = 144.8700 yen) More

It was the sharpest quarterly contraction since the fourth quarter of 2022 when the economy shrank by 0.5%. On an annual basis, gross domestic product was 2.3% higher in the April-June quarter, weaker than the 3.3% growth logged in the first quarter. More

(Reuters) -The International Longshoremen’s Association union, representing 45,000 workers at major container ports from Texas to Maine, began two days of meetings on Wednesday to review wage demands and prepare for a potential strike on Oct. 1.Formal talks have reached an impasse as the union and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group wrangle over pay, terminal automation, healthcare coverage and retirement benefits. A source familiar with the negotiations said the ILA has asked for a 77% pay bump over the life of the new contract. Three experts told Reuters the final increase would likely improve on the 32% rise the West Coast longshore union negotiated last year.ILA International President Harold Daggett has warned that workers will strike if a new labor agreement is not reached before the current six-year contract expires on Sept. 30. “The ILA most definitely will hit the streets on October 1 if we don’t get the kind of contract we deserve,” Daggett, the union’s chief negotiator, said in a video message posted on Wednesday. The USMX said in previous statements it has been trying to set a meeting with the ILA to resume talks.Any work slowdown or stoppage would affect key ports including New York/New Jersey, Houston and Charleston, South Carolina, backing up goods ahead of the holiday season and U.S. presidential elections.Such disruptions would have “serious ripple effects” on global supply chains already under pressure from Red Sea diversions, said Vincent Clerc, CEO of A.P. Moller-Maersk, last week at an event in Los Angeles. Maersk is a USMX member company. When asked about the status of the talks, Clerc said negotiators previously had been able to “take it from the brink” and reach an agreement.Shippers that depend on affected ports are not taking chances, and many have brought in goods early to mitigate risk. Still, each day without a deal fuels worries about a strike. The National Retail Federation (NRF) on Tuesday urged the two sides to return to the bargaining table, following similar calls by the Retail Industry Leaders Association and the American Apparel & Footwear Association.”A strike or other disruption would significantly impact retailers, consumers and the economy. The administration needs to offer any and all support to get the parties back to the table to negotiate a new contract,” NRF CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement. More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.Investors in Asia are bracing for a wave of top-tier economic data releases on Thursday, as they continue to process this week’s market turbulence sparked by worries that the sought-after U.S. economy’s ‘soft landing’ could end in something far less benign.The Nasdaq and S&P 500 and world stocks slipped further on Wednesday and equity volatility rose again, although by smaller margins. This could give some solace to those looking for Asian markets to rebound on Thursday from their Wednesday slump.But that will likely be more in hope than expectation as sentiment has turned decidedly bearish.Figures on Wednesday showed that U.S. job openings slumped to a 3-1/2-year low in July, the latest sign that the labor market is losing steam, and another signal for investors to sell stocks, buy bonds, and position for deeper rate cuts.U.S. rates futures are now roughly putting a 50-50 probability on the Fed delivering a 50 basis point rate cut later this month and are pricing in 225 bps of easing by the end of next year.That’s a level of policy easing historically consistent with recession. For Asian and emerging markets, falling U.S. yields and a weaker dollar are often positive signals. But not when they’re reflecting a potential recession on the horizon.Signs of slowdown are mounting. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its lowest since May last year, Brent crude oil hit its lowest this year and is down 8% this week, and China’s 10-year bond yield is again flirting with its recent record low. That’s the backdrop for a big day in the Asian calendar on Thursday, when Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines release August inflation figures, Malaysia’s central bank announces an interest rate decision, and South Korea publishes revised second-quarter GDP data.Malaysia’s central bank is expected to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 3.0% and keep it there until 2026. The Malaysian ringgit has emerged in recent weeks as the best performing Asian currency this year. This helps keep a lid on inflation, and with global volatility rising and the Fed about to cut U.S. rates, the ringgit could stay stronger for longer.Another buoyant Asian currency is Japan’s yen, as yen-funded carry trades are unwound and the currency fulfills its traditional role as a safe harbor for investors in stormy times. It rose around 1% against the dollar for a second day on Wednesday, and could be about to break into a new, stronger trading range.Headline annual CPI inflation in the Philippines, meanwhile, is expected to slow to 3.6% from 4.4%, essentially halve to 0.4% from 0.83% in Thailand, and cool to 2.27% from 2.52% in Taiwan. Disinflation all around.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Thursday:- The Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan – CPI inflation (August) – Malaysia central bank interest rate decision- South Korea GDP (Q2, revised) More

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suffered an unexpected blow on Wednesday when the small party helping keep his minority Liberal government in power withdrew its automatic support, forcing him to attempt new alliances to govern.Promising to continue governing and pushing through social programs, Trudeau dismissed talk of early elections after the left-leaning New Democratic Party’s leader Jagmeet Singh said he was “ripping up” a deal struck between the two men in 2022.But the move leaves Trudeau reliant on support from other opposition lawmakers to survive confidence votes in the lower chamber of parliament at a time when polls show he will lose badly if an election were held now. An election must be held by the end of October 2025 under Canadian law.”An election will come in the coming year, hopefully not until next fall, because in the meantime, we’re going to deliver for Canadians,” Trudeau told reporters at a school where he had arrived to talk about expanding lunch programs.”I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the past years, rather than focusing on politics.”Trudeau, 52, first took office in November 2015 but has over the last two years struggled to fend off attacks from the opposition center-right Conservatives, who blame him for high inflation and a housing crisis.With the NDP’s support, his government has pushed through social programs designed to address the cost of living.But the NDP’s Singh had expressed growing frustration with Trudeau in recent months, especially over what he said was the Liberals’ failure to deal with high prices at grocery stores.”Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed,” Singh said in a video posted on social media where he also declared that he would run for prime minister in the next election. “Liberals have led people down – they don’t deserve another chance.”ESTABLISHING INDEPENDENCEPolls indicate the same voter fatigue plaguing Trudeau has also spread to the NDP, which despite successfully pushing the Liberals to introduce measures such as a national dental program is languishing far behind in third place.Under the 2022 deal, the NDP agreed to keep Trudeau in power until mid-2025 in return for more social spending.Fred Cutler, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, said the party needed to reestablish its full independence well before the election.”At least some voters will say, ‘Oh, yeah … the NDP are not just in the Liberals’ back pocket, they’re competing against the Liberals in the election,'” Cutler said. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre reiterated his call for an early election to break up what he called a Liberal-NDP coalition driving up prices for Canadians. The House of Commons resumes work on Sept. 16, after which the Conservatives will have the ability to propose a vote of confidence. Trudeau’s Liberals could still survive if the NDP abstained on such a vote. A statement from the NDP said the party would decide on an issue-by-issue basis whether to support the Liberals on confidence votes, suggesting it may continue to prop up Trudeau if his fate hung in the balance. A key moment for Trudeau’s government will be its budget update later this year, which, if voted down by legislators would trigger a new election. More