More stories

  • in

    Is Jay Powell lucky or good?

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

  • in

    Jean Pisani-Ferry: ‘It’s a war between two strands of capitalism — green and brown’

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

  • in

    Policies must be justified by their wellbeing-to-cost ratio

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

  • in

    Concern over housing costs hits record high across rich nations

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

  • in

    The origins of prosperity

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Big government has returned to the western world. The language of subsidies, protectionism and state-led industrial strategy are once again central to political debate. Public attitudes to wealth creators have been souring for a while, too. But, as state interventionism plays a greater role in our economies, it is easy to lose sight of the pivotal role businesses and entrepreneurs have played in generating economic growth and prosperity. In How Nations Escape Poverty, Rainer Zitelmann, a German historian and sociologist, reminds us of the power of capitalism. He outlines how Poland and Vietnam, two nations that were ravaged by war and poor governance in the 20th century, have now become case studies in developmental success. Since 1960, both countries have experienced a more than fivefold increase in their gross domestic product per capita. Some forecasts suggest that Poland’s per capita income could surpass the UK’s within the next 10 years. Today, Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Zitelmann argues that both nations’ success is the result of an outright focus on wealth creation and enterprise — and the reformers who enabled it. After the Polish communist party’s monopoly on power ended in 1989, Leszek Balcerowicz became finance minister of the country’s new, democratic government, and Zitelmann attributes much of the nation’s initial progress to him. He quickly helped stabilise inflation, created institutions such as an independent central bank and stock exchange, and privatised state-owned enterprises. The reforms were intended to help pave the way for individuals and businesses to flourish. In socialist-ruled Vietnam, the embrace of the private sector was more gradual. After an experiment with collectivised agriculture led to food shortages, market reforms — known as the Doi Moi — gained pace in the 1980s. They enabled price controls, internal customs checkpoints and limits on private businesses to be removed. In both countries, a greater emphasis was placed on individuals — rather than government or foreign aid — as the source for wealth creation and growth. As private enterprise expanded, so did income and employment. For Zitelmann, alongside the enabling free market reforms, attitudes towards private wealth creators helped.Rather than viewing the pick-up in wealth inequality that initially came with freer enterprise as a bad thing, many saw it as an aspiration, according to Zitelmann. It brought dynamism to both countries — people saw an opportunity to empower themselves and improve their lot. Zitelmann cites several surveys in his book, which find that Vietnamese and Polish citizens tend to harbour more favourable attitudes to the rich than Americans or Germans, for instance. In Vietnam, one survey finds that citizens largely attribute wealth creation to risk-taking, special skills and ideas, and industriousness. The word “capitalism” is associated more with progress, innovation and choice, which leads to an ever-expanding circle of gain. Another survey shows that positive attitudes towards liberal economic systems in Poland far surpasses those in most other advanced nations. Both countries’ recent past — under controlling governments that suffocated their economies — helped underscore positive attitudes to free enterprise. The contrast from ration cards and poverty to choice and opportunity, in the space of a generation, is embedded in citizens’ memory. That nations with a longer history of private enterprise show a more negative view of the rich is interesting, too. According to surveys cited by Zitelmann, in Germany, for instance, people tend to associate wealth with inheritance or tax avoidance. Relative to the Polish, the Germans also think the rich are more greedy and self-centred. Experiences in developed economies of inequality, tax-dodging multinationals and competition from abroad have all soured views towards free markets and given rise to a more “zero-sum” attitude of private wealth creators. Some of these have been used to justify greater state intervention, on top of the rising challenge of ageing populations, national security and climate change.Perhaps, over time, the wealth opportunities that come with the free market also raise the incentive of individuals to insulate their wealth or look for rent-seeking opportunities. That is where the state can play a role, in encouraging competition and investment in productive resources and innovation. Reforms to channel the energies of capitalism better may be a more apt response than to crowd out business with excessive state intervention.Neither Vietnam nor Poland is without its problems, either economically or politically. But Zitelmann’s evaluation of their emergence is a timely reminder of just what free enterprise can achieve when governments enable it. How Nations Escape Poverty by Rainer Zitelmann Encounter Books, £21.99This article is part of FT Wealth, a section providing in-depth coverage of philanthropy, entrepreneurs and family offices, as well as alternative and impact investment More

  • in

    Dollar steady as traders brace for labour data deluge

    SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar held close to a two-week high against the yen and the euro on Tuesday as investors geared up for a slew of economic data, including Friday’s U.S. payrolls, that will influence the size of an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.The euro was last at $1.1060, not far from the two week low of $1.1042 it touched in the previous session, while the yen fetched 147.10 per dollar in early trading, close to the two-week low of 147.16 hit on Monday. Investor focus this week will squarely be on the U.S. payrolls data due on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts in a nod to the worries over the labour market.Ahead of that job openings data on Wednesday along with jobless claims report on Thursday will be in the spotlight. Markets are pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) cut when the Fed meets Sept. 17-18, with 31% probability of a 50 bps cut, CME FedWatch tool showed. This week’s overload of labour data will be crucial in breaking the debate between a 25 or 50 bps cut in September, said Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo. “If the data remains robust, a 25 bps cut is more likely. However, a weak non-farm payrolls, particularly if it falls below 130k with another jump higher in unemployment rate, could push the rates market closer to pricing a 50 bps cut”Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the addition of 165,000 U.S. jobs in August, up from an increase of 114,000 in the previous month.The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 101.69 in early trading, just below the two-week high of 101.79 it touched on Monday. The index fell 2.2% in August on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Sterling eased a bit to $1.31425 in early trading. The Australian dollar was 0.14% lower at $0.6782, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.18% to $0.6223. More

  • in

    Malaysia central bank to hold rates at 3.0% until at least 2026: Reuters poll

    BENGALURU (Reuters) – Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will leave its key interest rate unchanged on Thursday and keep it there at least through 2025 as growth remains robust and inflation stays under control, according to a Reuters poll of economists.While BNM has managed to keep inflation in check, currently at 2.0%, the Malaysian ringgit has flipped from being one of the worst performing Asian currencies to one of the strongest in recent weeks.That suggests the central bank will be in no rush to cut rates anytime soon, aiming to avoid weakening the currency and importing inflation.All 30 economists in the Aug. 27-Sept. 2 Reuters poll predicted BNM would leave its overnight policy rate at 3.00% on Sept. 5.A median from a smaller sample showed rates would remain at the current level until at least 2026, a view unchanged since the beginning of the year.Those predictions were in contrast to major central banks which were expected to cut rates at least once in 2024.”There is no reason for BNM to change the policy rate right now…as growth is at the higher end of expectations and inflation has been surprisingly benign,” said Lavanya Venkateswaran, senior ASEAN economist at OCBC Bank.Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.9% last quarter, the fastest pace in 18 months, driven by strong household spending, exports and investment.Inflation is expected to trend higher in the second half of 2024 amid uncertainties emanating from a recent policy on reducing diesel subsidies, suggesting a rate cut from the central bank is unlikely over the coming months.”There is still uncertainty about the timing of further fuel subsidy rationalisation and the bank is probably keeping an eye out for second-round effects from the previous diesel fuel subsidy removal, so a cut would appear premature,” said Moorthy Krshnan, senior Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.The central bank said in a statement that inflation would continue to remain manageable even if it trended higher following diesel subsidy cuts in June.The Malaysian ringgit has appreciated by about 6% this year, as increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as this month have weakened the U.S. dollar.This suggests a rate cut from the central bank now is unwarranted and would likely be inflationary.”The more significant determinant for the ringgit has been a weaker dollar story, as U.S. growth concerns have increased. With the Fed poised to make cuts, the narrowing interest differential should be a positive for the ringgit,” added Krshnan. More

  • in

    S.Korea inflation slows to 3-1/2-year low, backs case for imminent rate cut

    The consumer price index rose 2.0% from a year earlier, after gaining 2.6% the previous month, marking the slowest annual rise since March 2021. It matched the median 2.0% increase tipped in a Reuters survey of economists and the central bank’s medium-term inflation target of 2%. “Going forward, unless there is any additional shock from weather conditions or global oil prices, consumer inflation is expected to stabilise in the lower 2% range,” said Vice Finance Minister Kim Beom-seok. Last month, the Bank of Korea held interest rates steady at their highest in nearly 16 years but revived expectations for a policy easing that some economists see happening as soon as October as growth concerns overshadow inflation worries. The central bank said Tuesday’s data showed inflation was stabilising more quickly than in other major economies, and expects prices to maintain a stable trend. On a monthly basis, the index was up 0.4%, the fastest in six months, after rising 0.3% in the prior month and beating forecast by economists for 0.3%. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy items, rose 2.1% from a year earlier, slowing from the previous month’s 2.2% rise and marking the weakest since November 2021. More