Economy

Home buyers this week saw the lowest average rate since early 2023, and existing-home sales rebounded in July. Analysts predict more relief ahead.Mortgage rates dipped this week to a recent low, with analysts predicting a sharper drop in the coming months that could motivate potential home buyers.The average rate on 30-year mortgages, the most popular home loan in the United States, fell slightly to 6.46 percent this week, Freddie Mac reported on Thursday. That was only a slight decline from the 6.49 percent average a week earlier, but was the lowest level since May 2023. Mortgage rates, which stood at around 3 percent in late 2021, began climbing when the Federal Reserve started raising its benchmark rate to combat inflation, reaching levels not seen in two decades. The 30-year rate has been steadily easing since April, when it rose above 7 percent.Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said mortgage rates hovering below 6.5 percent over the past two weeks had not been enough to prompt a significant uptick in home purchases.“We expect rates likely will need to decline another percentage point to generate buyer demand,” Mr. Khater said in a statement.More significant relief could be on the horizon. The Fed is expected to start lowering interest rates in September, after holding them at 5.3 percent for the past year. Although the Fed’s benchmark rate and mortgage rates aren’t directly connected, a Fed rate cut could indirectly put even more downward pressure on mortgages.And while borrowing costs remain twice as high as three years ago, there is some evidence that home buyers are starting to respond to the small but steady decline. Existing-home sales rose above expectations in July after four consecutive monthly declines, according to data released on Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. The 1.3 percent increase lifted sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units.Consumers are “definitely seeing more choices” as affordability improves, Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist, said in a statement. But existing home sales are still down 2.5 percent from the prior year.“Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” Mr. Yun said.Potential home sellers also continue to feel locked into lower rates on their existing loans, keeping their houses off the market. The median existing-home owner has a rate below 4 percent, said Chen Zhao, who leads the housing economics team at the real estate services company Redfin.More homeowners are starting to list their properties for sale to keep up with demand, Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, said in a statement. But the number of homes available at any given time is still lower than before the pandemic, she said. More

PORTICELLO, Italy (Reuters) -The body of British tech magnate Mike Lynch was retrieved on Thursday from the wreck of his family yacht that sank earlier this week off the coast of Sicily during a violent storm, a source close to the rescue operation said.Lynch’s 18-year-old daughter Hannah is still unaccounted for, the source said. The bodies of four other people who vanished when the boat went down were recovered from the yacht on Wednesday.The British-flagged Bayesian, a 56-metre-long (184-ft) superyacht carrying 22 passengers and crew, was anchored off the port of Porticello, near Palermo, when it disappeared beneath the waves in a matter of minutes after the bad weather struck. Lynch, 59, was one of the UK’s best-known tech entrepreneurs and had invited friends to join him on the yacht to celebrate his recent acquittal in a major U.S. fraud trial. His body was brought ashore in a blue body bag and driven in an ambulance to a nearby hospital morgue.Besides Lynch and his daughter, the other people who failed to make it to safety were Judy and Jonathan Bloomer, a non-executive chair of Morgan Stanley International; and Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife, Neda Morvillo.Fifteen people, including Lynch’s wife, survived, while the body of the onboard chef, Canadian-Antiguan national Recaldo Thomas, was found near the wreck hours after the disaster. No formal identification of the bodies has been announced by the Italian authorities and the families have not yet commented.Fire brigade spokesman Luca Cari warned it could take time, even days, before the last missing person was found, given the difficulty divers were having in accessing all areas of the boat, which is lying on its side at a depth of 50 metres. A judicial investigation has been opened into the disaster, which has baffled naval marine experts, who say a boat like the Bayesian, build by Italian high-end yacht manufacturer Perini, should have been able to withstand the storm.Giovanni Costantino, CEO of the Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini, told Italian media the Bayesian was “one of the safest boats in the world” and blamed the crew for failing to follow correct safety procedures. The captain, James Cutfield, and his eight surviving crew members, have made no public comment on the disaster.CHALLENGING CONDITIONS Specialist rescuers have been searching inside the hull of the sunken yacht for the past three days in what they said were extremely challenging conditions due to the depth and the narrowness of the places that the divers are scouring. The fire brigade compared the efforts to those carried out, on a larger scale, for the Costa Concordia, the luxury cruise liner that capsized off the Italian island of Giglio in January 2012, killing 32 people.Once the final body is recovered, experts will have to decide whether, or how, to salvage the vessel. The CEO of Italian Sea Group said the yacht’s automatic tracking system suggested that it took 16 minutes from the moment the storm first hit to the sinking. He said it was clear the ship took in large amounts of water, adding that investigators would need to see what doorways or hatches might have been left open, focusing notably on a main door located on the left side of the yacht.”A Perini boat survived the Category 5 Katrina hurricane. Do you think one couldn’t survive a waterspout here,” he told Corriere della Sera newspaper, referring to a type of tornado which is believed to have hit the Bayesian.Under maritime law, a captain has full responsibility for the ship and the crew, as well as the safety of all those aboard. The captain of the Costa Concordia is serving a 16 year prison term for his role in the 2012 disaster after he admitted to sailing too close to underwater rocks. More

HONG KONG (Reuters) -Chinese regulators will likely impose a six-month business suspension on a big part of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ auditing unit in mainland China, as a penalty for its work on troubled property developer Evergrande , according to five sources with knowledge of the matter.PwC Zhong Tian LLP, the registered accounting entity and the main onshore arm of PwC in China, is expected to be hit with the ban in its securities related business, affecting its work for clients including listed companies, IPO-bound companies and investment funds on the mainland, said the sources who declined to be named as the information was private.A fine of at least 400 million yuan ($56 million) is expected to accompany the six-month ban, three of the people said. Combined with the business suspension, it would be the toughest ever penalty received by a Big Four accounting firm in China, the three people added.In the most recent case of a Big Four auditor being hit with hefty penalties, Deloitte’s Beijing branch in March last year was fined 211.9 million yuan and the branch’s operations were suspended for three months after serious deficiencies were found in its audit of China Huarong Asset Management.The PwC penalties, which are being mainly handled by China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF), the primary regulator of accounting firms in the country, are yet to be finalised, said one of the sources.”Given this is an ongoing regulatory matter, it would not be appropriate to comment,” a PwC spokesperson said in a statement. The MOF did not immediately respond to requests for comment. PwC has been under regulatory scrutiny for its role in auditing China Evergrande (HK:3333) Group since the developer was accused in March of a $78-billion fraud. PwC audited Evergrande for almost 14 years until early 2023.Chinese regulators are expected to announce PwC’s penalties in the coming weeks, three of the people said.The Financial Times first reported on Thursday that PwC China expected a six-month business ban by Chinese authorities as early as September.Bloomberg in May reported that the firm faces a record fine of at least 1 billion yuan ($140 million).The looming PwC penalties have led to an exodus of clientele and prompted cost cuts and layoffs at the firm in recent months, sources have said, clouding the firm’s prospects in the world’s second-largest economy.As part of the penalties, PwC would be barred from signing off on certain key documents for clients in mainland China such as results and IPO applications as well as from carrying out other securities-related services, the sources said.The business suspension could also affect PwC Zhong Tian, as a whole, from taking on new state-owned or domestically-listed clients in the next three years, in accordance with Chinese regulations.Last year, domestic regulators reiterated state-owned firms and mainland China-listed companies should be “extremely cautious” about hiring auditors that have received regulatory fines or other penalties in the past three years.In the past few months, at least 50 Chinese firms, many of which are state-owned enterprises or financial institutions, have either dropped PwC as their auditor or cancelled plans to hire the firm, according to stock exchange filings reviewed by Reuters.Its largest mainland China-listed audit client, Bank of China, said on Monday it plans to hire EY for its 2024 annual audit. In June, the bank stated that its service agreement with PwC would only be for the interim report review.PwC Zhong Tian recorded revenues of 7.92 billion yuan in 2022, making it China’s highest-earning auditor that year, followed by EY, Deloitte and KPMG, official figures show.($1 = 7.1322 Chinese yuan) More

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Thursday marks the 120th birthday of Deng, who unleashed historic reforms in 1978 to allow more private enterprise and opened the economy to foreign investment, paving the way for decades of breakneck growth. At an agenda-setting meeting last month, China’s leaders unveiled reforms that some experts say do not go far enough to boost private-sector confidence and the flagging economy.A critical article by one of China’s most prominent liberal economists and a professor at Peking University, Zhang Weiying, was twice deleted by Chinese internet censors on Thursday, after being widely circulated on social network WeChat.The article, originally published in 2018 and recirculated on Thursday, praised Deng for his courage to embrace market forces at the cost of state planning and act boldly on reforms while trying to “cross the river by feeling the stones”.Its tone reflects broader disappointment among China’s liberal economists over the slow pace of reforms. Others, in articles which have not been taken down, also used the Deng anniversary to air their reformist views. “China has once again come to a crossroads in history,” Wang Zhigang, an economist with a think tank, said in an article posted online.”Only by thoroughly reviewing, sorting out, and inheriting Deng’s legacy and carrying forward the past and opening up the future can we best commemorate Xiaoping and this great era.”In a speech published on state-run Xinhua news agency, President Xi Jinping hailed Deng as the “chief architect of China’s socialist reform, opening up, and modernisation”.On social media platform Weibo (NASDAQ:WB), trending hashtags related to Deng’s birthday received a combined 50 million views as of Thursday afternoon. The vast majority of posts were state media and government offices posting tributes to his life. Deng died in 1997 at age 92. More

“We’ve seen quite a lot of reduction in inflation. The reduction to me is consistent with more confidence that we are on that trajectory and with labor markets healthy overall, I do think that soon it is appropriate to begin easing,” Collins said in an interview with Fox Business. “I think a gradual, methodical pace once we are in a different policy stance is likely to be appropriate,” Collins added, as she noted that preserving the health of the labor market is a priority. More

(Reuters) – Central bankers from around the world fly into Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week to attend what has become the globe’s premier economic gathering, the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Grand Teton National Park.The event draws keen investor attention, and – depending on what the world’s most influential monetary policymakers say in formal remarks and in interviews on the sidelines – sometimes delivers a rough ride for markets. Here is a guide on what to expect and why it might be worth paying attention to. HAWKS AND DOVESIn recent years the guest list of about 120 has included most of the Fed’s 19 policymakers, and a few dozen central bankers from Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas and elsewhere. Also joining are several dozen economists and officials from academia, government and international organizations as well as the Fed and a few financial institutions, and a cadre of journalists. Details on each year’s attendees and the agenda are closely held until Thursday evening.A BEAR AND A BUNCH OF PAPERSThe program typically begins Thursday with a dinner served beneath antler-decorated lights at the historic Jackson Lake Lodge. Attendees entering the private dining room pass by a preserved grizzly bear in the lodge’s public lounge, which boasts an expansive view of the craggy Teton Range. The conference goes until midday on Saturday and largely consists of discussions of a series of academic papers. This year’s theme is “reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy.” Wonkish vibe notwithstanding, many participants make time for a hike – not of interest rates, but of the kind that involves circumnavigating a mountain lake – and some deck themselves out in cowboy boots and other western wear. ACTION IN JACKSONThe marquee event is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday morning. Investors hope he will give a clearer steer on whether he feels inflation has cooled enough to justify an interest rate cut next month, and if his worries about a rising unemployment rate could make that first reduction in borrowing costs a big one. Most analysts expect the former and not the latter, but as Deutsche Bank economists note, “it will be difficult for Powell to pre-commit to a particular trajectory at Jackson Hole.” Powell has pledged to be data-dependent, and there is lots of economic data before the Fed’s Sept 17-18 meeting. STOCK SHOCKSBig market moves during the Jackson Hole symposium aren’t common, but they do happen. The S&P 500 index lost 3.4% on the day in 2022 when Powell warned that taming the highest inflation in decades could bring pain to households and businesses, a pain that for the most part has not materialized even as inflation has dropped substantially.The 2.6% decline in the S&P 500 index the day Powell spoke in 2019 owed less to his remarks than to a rapid escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions.Then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke helped deliver two Jackson Hole stock rallies. In 2009 he forecast – wrongly as it turned out – an imminent return to global growth after the Global Financial Crisis, and in 2010 promised the Fed would step in with additional bond buying if needed, as it eventually would. The S&P 500 index rose 1.8% the day Bernanke spoke in 2009, and 1.6% a year later. Jackson Hole speeches can leave a mark even when the stock market barely budges. In 2020 Powell signaled the U.S. central bank would no longer raise interest rates solely in response to a stronger-than-usual labor market, a remarkable shift from the Fed’s historical eagerness to act early to head off inflation. The S&P 500 index rose 0.2% on the day. THE TROUTThe Kansas City Fed has held its yearly symposium since 1978. Its initial focus was agriculture, but after a few years the organizers decided to broaden the meeting’s scope and try to attract bigger names.In 1982 they moved the meeting to its current location to entice then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker, a devotee of flyfishing, to join. It worked – Volcker showed up to the opening dinner still in his fishing gear.Alan Greenspan, who led the Fed from 1987 to early 2006, began in 1991 what is now the annual symposium’s hallmark – an address by the leader of the world’s most influential central bank. More

(Reuters) – U.S. company executives are talking much more about the upcoming presidential election than they did four years ago as a wider policy rift between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump raises questions around taxes, tariffs and pricing power.In company earnings calls over the two months ended Aug. 15, mentions of “election” or “White House” were 34% higher than the corresponding period in 2020, according to an LSEG Workspace screen of S&P 500 companies. After energy and carbon emissions, including renewables and electric vehicles, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), tariffs and trade were the most talked about policy topics by companies which cited “elections” during second-quarter earnings, according to a separate analysis by FactSet.Sharper policy differences between the two candidates now than during the 2020 race may be spurring the heightened discussion of the election on earnings calls, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.”Company profits could be affected materially, depending on which party gains the White House, and especially if it is either a blue or red wave,” Stovall said.Harris’ surprise rise to the top of the Democratic ticket following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race in late July has added another layer of uncertainty, investors said.”We have an idea as to what Trump is planning, but we have less clarity on Harris’ plan. We have a belief that it’s going to be somewhat continuation of the Biden administration, but a little different,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management.Republican nominee Trump has been loud about his intention to go big with trade restrictions, vowing to impose tariffs of 60% or higher on all Chinese goods. He has also floated the idea of a 10% universal tariff.Tariffs and taxes are most relevant to U.S. equity fundamentals, Citi Research said in a note, and higher corporate taxes pose a bigger risk to earnings than tariffs do.”It all comes down to taxes… that’s the rally killer for this market,” said David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. “The new corporate tax rate is an instant haircut to earnings growth. That’s why a lot of these companies are really starting to talk about this to get ahead of the curve.”Harris is proposing to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% if she wins the November election. Trump, who slashed the rate to 21% from 35% during his term and implemented other tax breaks set to expire next year, has pledged to make the cuts permanent. The closeness of the presidential race – an Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 2-7 showed Harris leading Trump 42% to 37% – makes it difficult for companies to start positioning for a particular outcome.On companies or people stocking up in advance of potential tariffs, U.S. chemicals maker Dow Inc (NYSE:DOW)’s CEO James Fitterling said, “I don’t think anything has started yet… primarily because there’s all the uncertainty around the election and what policies are going to actually stick.”Still, some firms have laid out some plans on how they will respond to the election outcome. Cosmetics company Elf Beauty’s CEO Tarang Amin said the firm would raise prices as it passes on the cost from higher tariffs, should Trump win.”We don’t like 60% tariff just because we feel it is a tax on American consumers,” Amin said.Sharpie pen maker Newell Brands is moving some production of kitchen appliances out of China amid tariff uncertainty, CEO Chris Peterson told Reuters. The election’s outcome may have big implications for companies in the energy and electric vehicle sectors.On energy, Harris is largely expected to adhere to Biden’s policies and supported his landmark IRA, while Trump is expected to undo much of it.Trump has also said he would consider ending a $7,500 tax credit for electric-vehicle purchases.Their ability to push through policies will also depend on securing the backing of Congress.”The key will be who controls the House and the Senate, irrespective of who is the president,” said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member at Great Hill Capital, LLC. More