Economy

WHY IT’S IMPORTANTThe steady monthly LPR fixings met market expectations, as shrinking interest margins at lenders hampered continued easing efforts after China lowered a string of key interest rates a month earlier.BY THE NUMBERSThe one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.35%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.85%.In a Reuters survey of 37 market participants conducted this week, all respondents expected both rates to stay unchanged.CONTEXTMost new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.China surprised markets by cutting major short- and long-term interest rates in July, its first such broad move in almost a year, signalling policymakers’ intent to strengthen economic growth.The sequence of the rate cuts also showed the PBOC’s monetary framework had changed, shifting the short-term rate to being the main signal guiding markets, traders and analysts said.China’s bank lending tumbled more than expected last month, hitting the lowest in nearly 15 years, dragged down by tepid credit demand and seasonal factors and raising expectations that the central bank may deliver more easing steps.KEY QUOTESEconomists at Goldman Sachs: “The expansionary fiscal policy, along with other support including continued monetary policy easing, is needed to stem further weakening in domestic demand and to ensure real GDP growth stays close to 5% year-on-year in the second half of this year. We believe the growth target is important to the authorities and recent policy communications have indicated so.”They expect one 25-basis-point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the third quarter, followed by another 10-basis-point policy rate cut in the fourth quarter of this year. More

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar hung near a seven-month low on Tuesday on wagers the U.S. central bank will start cutting interest rates from next month, with traders preparing for comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.The weakness in the dollar lifted the euro to its highest this year, while sterling was perched near a one-month peak. The emerging markets currency index was also at a record high.The Japanese yen was a shade stronger at 146.50 per dollar, hovering close to the near two-week high it touched in the previous session but still further away from the seven-month high of 141.675 it touched at the start of August. The focus this week will be on Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, likely keeping investors hesitant in placing major bets before the event. Investors largely expect Powell to acknowledge the case for a rate cut and will parse his words for cues on whether the Fed will start with a 25 basis point cut or a 50 bps cut in September. Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY), expects Powell to retain optionality for delayed cuts or larger cuts subject to the next U.S. data releases on inflation and payrolls. “In our view, the economic circumstances require a standard 25 bp rather than an outsized cut to the Funds rate,” Capurso said, adding the dollar is likely to keep falling this week on the prospect of rate cuts.The euro last fetched $1.1080 on Tuesday having touched $1.108775, its highest since Dec. 28 in early trading. The single currency is up 2.4% this month, on course for its strongest monthly performance since November.The pound was steady at $1.2985 in early trading after touching a one-month high of $1.2998 in the previous session. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, touched its lowest since Jan. 2 of 101.82 on Tuesday. The index is down more than 2% in August and set for second month in the red. Markets are pricing in a 24.5% chance of a 50 bps cut in September, down from 50% a week ago, with a 25-basis-point reduction having odds of 75.5%, the CME FedWatch Tool showed. Traders are pricing in 93 bps of cuts this year.”The encouraging US macro backdrop of solid domestic demand activity and moderate disinflation suggests the Fed is unlikely to cut the funds rate as much as is currently priced-in”, said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “As such, there is room for an upward reassessment in Fed funds rate expectations in favour of USD and Treasury yields.”A slim majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. central bank to cut rates by 25 bps at each of the remaining three meetings of 2024.Investor attention will also be on the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, due to be released on Wednesday.The Australian dollar was 0.12% lower at $0.6725, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.61135. More

Kaisa will issue senior notes worth an aggregate of $5 billion in five tranches and an aggregate of $4.8 billion worth of mandatory convertible bonds in seven tranches, the property developer said.Maturities on the notes and bonds range from 2027 up to 2032. Cash interest on the senior notes will be between 5% and 6.25% per year, while convertible bonds will fetch shares in the company based on an allocation ratio. More

OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada’s labor minister will meet with the country’s two main railway companies and the Teamsters union in Montreal on Tuesday and Calgary on Wednesday to try to avert a crippling rail transport stoppage.Unless labour agreements are reached, both Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR) and Canadian Pacific (NYSE:CP) Kansas City will shut all freight rail services in Canada at the same time early on Thursday for the first time in history.Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon’s office said on Monday evening he will urge the companies and union “to fulfill their responsibility to Canadians, reach agreements at the bargaining table, and prevent a full work stoppage.”Canada – the world’s second-largest country by territory – relies heavily on CN and CP to ship food grains, fertilizers and other commodities, along with manufactured goods such as chemicals and automobiles. The country’s main business lobby group said it estimates losses would hit C$1 billion ($733 million) a day in case the rail stoppages proceed.Federal mediators are working with the companies and the union, but those involved in the discussion say little progress has been made. The union says CN Rail and CPKC want to dilute safety provisions, a charge the companies deny.MacKinnon has the power to force the union and railway companies into binding arbitration, but has so far said he wants them to sort out their differences at the negotiating table.In a statement on Monday, the left-leaning New Democratic Party called on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to not intervene in the labour disputes. Trudeau’s government is being kept in power by the New Democratic Party, which has traditionally enjoyed strong union support.Labour talks started early this year, but progress has been slow, with both the union and the companies accusing each other of bad faith.CN Rail and CPKC have already stopped accepting shipments of hazardous goods and have begun phased shutdowns of operations in Canada. Maersk said on Monday it would stop accepting some Canada-bound shipments.Separately, U.S. freight forwarder C.H. Robinson, said on Monday it was diverting some of its U.S. customers’ ocean cargo away from Canadian ports as the threat of a rail strike looms.”Both railroads simultaneously being out of commission would paralyze the ports and put instant pressure on trucking,” the company said.Canada is a major agricultural producer, and farmers will start bringing in their harvests in August and September.Quorum Corp, which monitors grain handling and transportation, said daily volumes in early September would increase to 138,000 metric tons with a value of around C$75 million.”After a period of time, sales will be lost and the value of Canada’s grain will decrease … the largest concern is a further degradation of Canada’s reliability as a supplier, which is already suffering due to past labor disruptions,” Quorum President Mark Hemmes said in an emailed statement.Refrigerated containers with meat and some highly perishable produce are of particular concern because delays would likely mean spoilage. Shippers of such items have already begun holding back containers, said Peter Friedmann, an executive director at the Agriculture Transportation Coalition. In a statement, the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade warned a full work stoppage would drive up prices and exacerbate an affordability crisis in the country.”Every facet of daily life would be impacted as our national economy grinds to a halt,” it said.($1 = 1.3641 Canadian dollars) More

The ECB was among the first major central banks in the world to cut interest rates in June, partially reversing a record string of hikes, but held rates steady in July and gave no firm signals about its upcoming Sept. 12 meeting. With more and more data coming in about prices and the health of the economy, Rehn has become one the first on the ECB’s 26-member Governing Council to offer a view on the appropriate course ahead.”The recent increase in negative growth risks in the euro area has reinforced the case for a rate cut at the next ECB monetary policy meeting in September, provided that disinflation is indeed on track,” Rehn said in a speech to the European American Chamber of Commerce in New York. Markets see a 90% chance of a 25 bps cut in the deposit rate to 3.5% in September and see at least one more move before the end of the year.Rehn argued that the long expected pick up in the euro zone’s economy was not a given and policymakers should be prepared for different outcomes. “The bad news relates to the growth outlook: there are no clear signs of a pick-up in the manufacturing sector,” Rehn said. “We must also consider that the slowdown in industrial production may not be as temporary as assumed.”Rehn was more sanguine about inflation but did warn that getting price growth back to the ECB’s 2% target was not straightforward. “The road ahead to the ECB’s 2% medium-term goal is still likely to be bumpy this year,” Rehn added. Still, even if there were still risks to price growth, the ECB has made considerable progress, Rehn argued. More

(Reuters) – Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) forecast fiscal 2025 revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates on Monday, a sign of growing demand for its cybersecurity products as the digital threat landscape evolves.Its shares rose about 2% in extended trading, as the company announced an additional $500 million for share repurchases. They dipped briefly during the post-earnings call after CEO Nikesh Arora said the recent global IT outage has caused several customers to reevaluate their options.A surge in online threats have triggered demand for companies such as Palo Alto offering cybersecurity products. However, analysts have said the July 19 outage, linked to CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD)’s software update, has exposed risks of dependence on a single vendor.Beginning this quarter, the company will give next-generation security annual recurring revenue as the key financial metric for revenue projections both quarterly and annually, CFO Dipak Golechha said.”It was a strong quarter and better-than-expected beat and raise as PANW continues to scale its Next-Gen Security business while balancing profitable growth,” said Shrenik Kothari, lead sector analyst at Baird.The company, whose products include cloud security suite Prisma and the AI-powered Cortex portfolio, expects its annual revenue to be between $9.10 billion and $9.15 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $9.11 billion, according to LSEG data.Palo Alto expects its annual adjusted profit per share in the range of $6.18 to $6.31, compared with estimates of $6.19.Its fourth-quarter revenue rose about 12% to $2.19 billion, beating expectations of $2.16 billion.The company, which counts NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP), Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM) and a U.S. federal agency as customers, posted an adjusted profit per share of $1.51, exceeding estimate of $1.41.Earlier this month, rival Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) raised its annual revenue forecast. More

The plan reflects rising government bond yields as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in a shift away from a decade-long stimulus programme, the Nikkei said.As a result, debt-servicing costs are estimated to increase to 28.9 trillion yen ($197.16 billion) for the year starting in April next year, up sharply from 27 trillion yen for the current year, according to the Nikkei.The overall proposed budget is likely to exceed 110 trillion yen for the fourth consecutive year, it added.The interest rate estimate is automatically calculated, taking into account the underlying bond yield plus a precautionary 110 basis points in case interest rates spike.The estimated rate for the next fiscal year will be finalised in the budget compilation in December.($1 = 146.5800 yen) More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.All signs point to another solid day of gains across Asian markets on Tuesday, with investors’ appetite for risk whetted by a lower dollar, subdued volatility and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq chalking up their longest winning streaks this year.The major exception may be Japanese stocks, which could come under pressure again thanks to the yen’s rise against the dollar, although it should be noted that the dollar’s decline on Monday was broad-based and even steeper against other major and emerging currencies.Chinese stocks crept higher for a third day on Monday, edging away from last Thursday’s six-month low, as investors turn their attention to the People’s Bank of China’s latest interest rate decision on Tuesday. Asia’s calendar on Tuesday also includes minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last policy meeting, New Zealand trade data, Hong Kong inflation, and export and current account figures from Taiwan.Although China’s economy may be crying out for more stimulus, the PBOC is expected to eschew a repeat of July’s surprise rate cuts and keep borrowing costs on hold. In a Reuters survey of 37 market watchers, all respondents expected both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates to be left on hold at 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively.China surprised markets by cutting major short- and long-term interest rates in July, its first such broad move in almost a year, signaling policymakers’ intent to strengthen economic growth.But shrinking interest margins at lenders remain the key constraint discouraging commercial banks from further lowering the lending benchmarks, market watchers said, and policymakers are also wary that lower interest rates may weaken the yuan further and spur capital outflows. China’s bond market continues to signal lower policy rates ahead. The 10-year yield closed on Monday at 2.16%, near the 2.10% low from Aug. 5, which is the lowest since comparable records began nearly a quarter of a century ago.The mood in Asia beyond China, however, is much brighter.Stocks are poised to continue their rebound from the Aug. 5 slump and post their ninth daily gain in the 11 sessions since. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Monday both chalked up their eighth consecutive rise, marking their best runs this year.U.S. Treasury yields did ease slightly on Monday, but the feel-good factor for investors in Asia will have been boosted more by the dollar’s broad depreciation. The dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies, fell to its lowest since Jan. 2, which helped lift MSCI’s international emerging market currency index 0.8% to a record high. It was the EM currency index’s biggest rise this year, and Asian currencies like the Korean won, Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht led the charge.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Tuesday:- China interest rate decision- RBA minutes- Taiwan exports (July) More