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    Morning Bid: Goodbye soft landing, hello emergency landing

    (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Asian markets on Monday get their first chance to react to the extraordinary market moves on Friday that saw stocks and bond yields tumble, and volatility and rate cut expectations soar following an unexpectedly soft U.S. employment report.That ‘risk off’ sentiment and momentum is sure to spill over into Asia, which was already wobbling last week after the Bank of Japan’s hawkish policy tilt, yet more sluggish Chinese economic data and some weak U.S. tech earnings.The MSCI Asia ex-Japan stock index slumped 2.5% on Friday, its biggest fall in over two years, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tanked 5.8% for its biggest fall since March 2020. Japan’s broader Topix’s 6.1% slide marked its worst day since 2016. Given Friday’s U.S. payrolls-fueled selling on Wall Street, a sharp selloff in Asia early Monday is likely. Friday’s market gyrations may prove to be excessive, but they are worth noting. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged 30 basis points, its steepest one-day fall since the U.S. regional banking shock of March last year. Its weekly fall of 50 bps is in line with those seen in the COVID-19, Lehman, 9/11 and Black Monday crises.In equities, the VIX volatility index at one point on Friday had doubled from the previous day. The stampede to unwind carry trades helped push the yen up nearly 5% against the dollar last week – the Japanese currency has only had three better weeks in the past 25 years. Plunging U.S. bond yields may ease financial conditions – Goldman Sachs’s emerging market financial conditions index on Friday fell to its lowest since March – but they’re loosening for ‘bad’ reasons, namely recession fears. Hopes for the much-vaunted U.S. economic ‘soft landing’ appear to have completely evaporated, replaced by fears of a ‘hard landing’. Traders are now attaching a 70% chance to the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point next month, and are pricing in 115 basis points of easing by the end of the year and over 200 bps by next June.High yield corporate debt markets will be worth watching closely. This is where the first signs of a ‘credit event’ usually appear, heralding wider retrenchment across businesses, rising unemployment and ultimately recession.High yield U.S. debt spreads over Treasuries jumped on Friday to the widest of the year of more than 370 bps, but that was mostly due to the slump in government bond yields rather than investors dumping corporate debt. If that dynamic changes, hold onto your hats.Monday’s economic and events calendar in Asia includes service sector purchasing managers index data from across the continent including China, inflation figures from Thailand, GDP numbers from Indonesia and some Japanese earnings.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- China ‘unofficial’ services PMI (July)- Thailand consumer price inflation (July)- Indonesia GDP (Q2) More

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    FirstFT: Investors prepare for market volatility

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Growth scare sets up markets for fresh bout of volatility

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Kamala Harris set to name her running mate

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Elon Musk says Fed foolish not to have cut interest rates

    Musk’s comment, which was made in response to a post on the social media site X, followed a run of weak data last week that has sparked worries the Fed may have left interest rates elevated for too long, resulting in damage to the economy.Policymakers left the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range last week, but opened the door to a rate cut at their Sept. 17-18 meeting. Traders are betting a cut is almost certain to happen at that meeting.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank could cut rates next month if the U.S. economy follows its expected path, putting the central bank near the end of more than a two-year battle against inflation but square in the middle of the nation’s presidential election campaign. More

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    ‘The summer job is back’: Teens enter the labor force as employers dish out higher wages, perks

    Teen workers have continued building on strong wage gains first seen as businesses struggled to hire during the pandemic, new data shows.
    The average hourly wage for a newly hired worker ages 15 through 19 came in at $15.68 in June, up more than 36% from the figure seen at the start of 2019.
    Teen employment rates are also rising as companies boost pay and offer incentives.

    A lifeguard works at the beach at Coney Island on June 15, 2023 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    Dailey Jogan was pleased to learn she would get $15 an hour and a handful of perks as the head swim coach for a metro Detroit team. Her older brother’s reaction looked more like surprise.
    At 18 years old, Jogan has spent the summer organizing meets as staff leader of the 250-person team. She also gets some freebies for facilities housed within the park where they practice, like access to the gym and a few comped tickets to the movie theater.

    That $15 per hour wage is about 25%, or $3 per hour, more than her older brother earned in the same role five years ago. And if he wanted to use the workout equipment or catch a film, he had to dig into his wallet to pay like everyone else.
    “I was very pleasantly surprised,” Dailey Jogan said. “I feel very valued.”
    That change in pay and benefits underscores the changing job outlook for the millions of American teen workers following the pandemic-induced labor crunch. While other Covid-related shocks to the economy have dissipated in recent years, young employees fetching higher wages and additional incentives appears to be a new normal.
    Data from Gusto, a payroll platform serving more than 300,000 businesses across the country, shows just how much ground teens have gained. The typical wage for a newly hired worker ages 15 through 19 came in at $15.68 per hour in June, up more than 36% from the start of 2019.

    That outpaces the rate of growth for all workers regardless of age on private payrolls, which has climbed just under 27% over the same time period, according to federal data. What’s more, Gusto stats show teens have been uniquely insulated from shifts in broader economic conditions that have at times led to lower pay for some adults.

    “I could probably overstate the benefit to teens in this labor market, but, I mean, I would have to go pretty far to do it,” said Liz Wilke, Gusto’s principal economist. “It’s a much better time to be a teen entering the labor force today than it was five or 10 years ago.”

    Employers woo workers

    Beyond pay, businesses courting teens have added additional benefits — like Jogan’s gym and theater access — to sweeten the offer.
    At fast-casual chain Chipotle Mexican Grill, workers have been eligible for a tuition reimbursement program since before the pandemic. Earlier this year, the California-based company added a well-being offering, which includes six free sessions with a licensed counselor or mental health coach. Chipotle also launched a match program, where eligible employees who make payments on student loans will get up to 4% of pay from the company in their retirement account.
    Additions to Chipotle’s benefits package in recent years have come after surveying its U.S. restaurant workers — more than one-third of whom are teens. While these offerings can push up operating costs, head of global benefits Daniel Banks said they are worthwhile to get enough new hires and open more stores. It can also boost worker retention, in turn keeping existing locations operating smoothly.

    Workers fill food orders at a Chipotle restaurant on April 01, 2024 in San Rafael, California.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    In fact, Chipotle found employees in its education-assistance program were two times more likely to stay and more than six times as likely to move into management roles. Banks also said Chipotle’s turnover rates are near record lows.
    “Our culture and brand is so important to us. We really try to focus on internal promotions and internal hires,” he said. “Being able to provide those individuals with the right skills and tools to become an effective leader just helps the bottom line across the board.”
    Elsewhere, small businesses are trying to keep up.
    Nearly half of Erin Powell’s staffers at The Sugar Shack, a small business in Minnesota, are teens, taking on roles like making coffee or baking pizzas. Powell accommodates vacation schedules, gives free menu items during shifts and offers frequent raises. She also hosts holiday parties and tries to foster a familial workplace atmosphere.
    Despite those efforts, she’s at times seen teen employees leave for higher pay at chain rivals like Starbucks. Powell feels caught between a rock and a hard place: She’s trying to do right by her young workers, while also acknowledging the financial realities of what can be provided without scale.
    “Everybody’s competing for workers still,” Powell said. But, she tries to show employees that “sometimes big isn’t always better.”
    To keep increasing labor costs manageable, she takes on the responsibilities of what others would hire a manager for. Powell has also tried to curtail waste within the business to cut out unnecessary expenses.

    ‘The summer job is back’

    Whether it’s a raise or financial support for education, these boons appear to be luring teens to the workforce. It marks a turn for a group that saw big declines on this front in recent decades.
    At its peak this year, government data shows close to 40% of members of this age group are employed. That’s the largest share since 2009, but is still well off highs recorded in the late 1970s.
    “The summer job is back,” said Alicia Sasser Modestino, an associate professor of economics who studies youth development at Northeastern University. “I remember being completely dead wrong in summer of 2021 when I said, ‘Teenagers: just run out, grab these jobs, because this is not going to last.'”

    For reference, the federal government found more than 5 million teens were in the workforce last year. Gusto expects sports and recreation; education; and food and beverage to be popular summer job sectors for this age bracket.
    Teens have also begun appearing with higher frequency in less stereotypical sectors, like construction and nonprofit work, as the labor force remains tight, according to Gusto’s Wilke. Looking ahead, she said teens should be able to keep finding these perks and opportunities as long as the job market is relatively hot.
    A shrinking share of teen workers is making minimum wage, which was once considered common. Just about 3% of 16- to 19-year-old hourly workers earned equal to, or less than, the federal minimum wage last year, according to government data. That’s down from close to 20% in 2013. (The federal per-hour pay floor has sat at $7.25 since 2009, though several states have their own minimums that are higher than that.)
    Because teens typically start at the lowest end of a company’s pay scale, Wilke said it can be easier to institute pay bumps that equate to large percentage changes than for higher-earning, older colleagues. And businesses may be more likely to give outsized wage gains to younger workers, she said, because they often don’t require other parts of a compensation package like insurance.

    Recognizing ‘a balance’

    While today’s employed teens are theoretically flush with spending money, there’s an elephant in the room: the rising cost of higher education. Olivia Locarno said she’s stashed money from jobs at Chick-fil-A and Starbucks in a savings account for books and dorm room essentials.
    The 18-year-old New Jersey resident still treats herself to meals out with friends and new clothes every once in a while. But she said she has tried to resist discretionary spending because of the expenses from starting classes at Marist College in the fall.
    “It’s hard to just go on Amazon and not spend money on things,” she said. 

    YinYang | E+ | Getty Images

    Jogan, too, is saving up her paychecks from coaching for expenses while at Aquinas College in Michigan, where she’ll be a member of the swim team. She’s also starting to think about big-ticket purchases down the road like a car.
    For Jogan, leading the so-called Mutants team has taught her soft skills like communication and problem solving. That’s similar to what her older brother, Thomas, said he learned from the gig and uses today in his supply chain management job.
    Thomas said he would’ve liked to have been paid at the rate his sister enjoyed when he was her age. But he added that Dailey does need to stretch the extra dollars she is making to account for inflation. Thomas said there’s no sibling jealousy — he’s just happy to see her carrying on a family legacy in a meaningful job.
    “She should be in a good spot,” said Thomas, 24. “Obviously, things are more expensive now and so forth, so there’s a balance.”

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    Analysis-Global stock traders face dip-buying dilemma after crushing selloff

    (Reuters) – A selloff that rocked equity markets around the world is clouding the outlook for investors looking to buy stocks on the cheap, as worries over the U.S. economy and disappointing tech earnings threaten more losses ahead.A two-day rout late last week left the S&P 500 nearly 6% from its July peak while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite extended losses to notch its first 10% correction from a record high since early 2022. Equities plunged in Europe and Asia as well, with Japan’s Nikkei index losing nearly 5% for the week. The market tumble presents a dilemma as another week of trading is set to unfold. Jumping into stocks during periods of weakness has rewarded investors over the last two years, as the S&P 500 has climbed about 50% from its Oct 2022 low. But buyers of the dip risk being steamrolled if recession fears grow following last week’s run of alarming U.S. data. The S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services.Saturday’s earnings report from legendary investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) may also give bargain hunters pause: the conglomerate sold about half its stake in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and let its cash pile soar to $277 billion in the second quarter. Berkshire often lets cash build up when it can’t find whole businesses or individual stocks to buy at fair prices.“People are starting to reassess what their risks are and whether they are properly positioned.” said Mark Travis, a portfolio manager at Intrepid Capital, noting also that elevated valuations are giving investors pause. Stocks have soared this year in a rally fueled by excitement over artificial intelligence technology and a so-called Goldilocks economy where growth stayed resilient while inflation cooled. The market’s appetite for risk took a hit this past week. Concerns that the Federal Reserve may be hurting economic growth by waiting too long to cut interest rates pushed traders to dump everything from richly-valued chipmakers to shares of industrial companies and head to safe harbors such as U.S. government bonds. Selloffs after disappointing earnings from tech-focused companies such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), meanwhile, exacerbated concerns that stocks may have become too richly valued. BRIGHT SPOTSNevertheless, some investors believe the recent tumble is merely a pause in a strong year for markets, and are looking for the opportunity to buy.“We’ve been looking to potentially get into some of those expensive names and frustrated we haven’t had an opportunity, and now we’re getting there,” said Lamar Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up around 12% year-to-date even with the recent selloff. Chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), whose blistering climb became emblematic of the AI craze, is sitting on a year-to-date gain of about 117%, despite falling more than 20% from its high.Economists have pointed to bright spots in Friday’s jobs report, including a second straight month of hefty workforce growth. Some also said that Hurricane Beryl, which slammed the Gulf Coast last month, may have skewed the statistics.And while expectations for tech companies’ results may have been high, some of the heavyweights delivered strong earnings, including Apple and Facebook-parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META).Big tech stocks “continue to have great businesses, big competitive moats. Their cash flow remains strong,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Advisors. “Investors usually overreact in the short-term.” ‘FEAR TRADE’Others, however, have noted that while stock valuations edged lower in the recent selloff, they remain elevated by historical standards.The S&P 500 was trading last week at 20.8 times forward 12-month earnings estimates, down from 21.7 reached in mid-July, according to LSEG Datastream. The index’s long-term average is 15.7 times forward earnings. That could leave stocks primed for further selling if more bad news hits.“This isn’t a Category 3 hurricane, but we are seeing how markets react to signs that the economy is normalizing after turning hot in the first half of this year,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. “Markets can find themselves overreacting and investors glom on to anything as an excuse to take profits.”A lack of major economic data releases until the consumer price report on August 14 could keep markets on edge. Indeed, worries over economic growth have traders more spooked than they have been in months. The Cboe Volatility index – known as Wall Street’s fear gauge – hit its highest since March 2023 on Friday as demand for options protection against a stock market selloff surged.Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, which moves inversely to bond prices, sank nearly 40 basis points this week, the largest weekly fall since March 2020 as investors priced in rate cut expectations and sought shelter from future volatility.“That’s a huge move,” said Michael Farr, president and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington. “It certainly looks like there’s a fear trade there. More

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    Is the rotation into small-cap stocks over?

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More